Open 338 Jungle Republic StefanBversion - FIN

[Primate]

Hi.

@Yos: Yep, t'is true. It's easier getting angry about someone else being wrong on the internet when you *know* they're wrong.

Like Sir Bastions attempts to get the game moving out of RVS. I disagree with the statement that because he's not asking useful questions it reflects badly on him. Obviously it would be better if he did, but my default assumption is that someone who intentionally makes themselves the a focal point early game gets townie points. Also maybe he's fooling me, but I think his play here is pretty transparent.

We don't no-lynch. Aside from the fact numbers aren't on our side it's a waste of a day and we don't learn anything from the kill. If we do it at all we do it later.

Not sure whether I'm happier if we lynch mafia or werewolf first. I think that's a decision that needs foreknowledge of who the wolves pick for their nightkill. I think we just try and lynch scum.

@TheOtherFiction: Why would SirBastion try to hide the fact that another player called him town as scum? Are you implying that Cobbler and SirB may be scumbuddies?

Don't like TOF's early use of the word case to describe points against him.

[Primate]

Strongly agree with Yos about calling IIOA in the early days of a thread. You can act like more has happened than has actually has in order to spur the game on, and that's fine, but don't expect others to do so. And it's also important not to assume that because you think that some stuff that happened in the first bit of the game is important, others will as well. This is even more relevant in this game, where there were several questions laid down at the beginning that were mostly setup related, and it is entirely reasonable to answer..

TOF's wagon actually isn't a terrible as the standard D1 newbiewagon normally is.

Two things I think yos is wrong about, Firstly, I'm dubious about perma-voting being a good idea when we have so many scum. Unless you see it as means to an end regarding catching scum, we're going to end up with a fair bit of wagonning, and that makes me uncomfortable. Plus, In #109, the way I read what Yos has down as 1. and 2. is that TOF is using the reasoning in 1. as the justification for the vote, so he is accusing you of trying to perpetuate that voting just to vote is a good idea.

The things I think are scummy about TOF are, firstly, I really dislike it when people feel that they dismiss votes on them as commentless as he has done, as if that makes them less important. I'm not a fan of a player passively criticising the town for not providing a framework for him to defend against. Secondly, OMGUS vote.

I think scoobies point was fair but weak, calling it a case is a stretch, and I'm unsure why he thought it was worthy of comment like it was a big thing, especially considering TOF did respond. This also raises the question though, why didn't he respond to TOF's response to his case?

Crypto is town. Yos is giving me a town feeling, but my Yosreads are normally appalling, so take that with a grain of salt. Rhinox reads neutral. I don't think you're scum particularly I just find myself disagreeing with everything you say. Cobblerfone reads neutral. Don't like IAMA.

Also I didn't actually realise that the lurkery was this bad here, otherwise I would have posted, sorry.

[Primate]

should I be worried that you left me off your list?

I'm leaning slightly town on you. To be honest I haven't continued to be as happy with you as I was at the beginning of the game, but I don't think you've done anything scummy yet.

@TOF: Good post.

[Primate]

Hey.

FunkyBikes #145 is scummy. A few people rightly picked him up on it.

@Scooby: It was a single point that you had several examples of. Trying to label it as a case just makes you seem like you are trying to overexagerate the importance of that vote. And yes, your reaction to what you quoted. Pushing a case after he's responded without replying to his reasoning behind his actions is worrying.

TOF's move against Crypto is horrible

IAMA's point against cobbler is entirely accurate. I wasn't a big fan of IAMA before this but I like him better now.

HavingFitz's post is terrible. He finds all of the people who have accrued suspicion so far scummy at once (also obvtown crypto) and doesn't really call anyone town except for Rhinox and Scooby.

TOF's #179 is a good post.

I actually think Cobblerfones #197 is pretty scummy. In context it actually looks kind of like he's trying to exagerrate the fact he finds TOF scummy, which is scummy given that the reason he's being voted on is because he didn't show any interest in the wagon before. I also think it's a little scummy to be juggling your own vote to keep the wagon away from -1. It doesn't do anything of real use and feels a little bit like a town for the sake of town action.

:rolleyes: at rhinox being townier than thou.

Vote Cobblerphone

(that's -1)

@Cobblerphone: Why did you originally vote ToF? I don't think you've said yet why you did that.

TOF's up to neutral, IAMA's up to leaning town.

[Primate]

I'm tired and I've got tomorrow off work so this is mostly a holdover post until I can sit about and look at yesterday's wagon. I don't think anything of relevance has happened so far today and accusations of scumslips make me annoyed because ugghhhh.

[Primate]

Also I hate the Funkybike wagon. It's so lazy.

[Primate]

Just looked at all funkybikes other games. I'm not going to pick specifics because they are mostly ongoing but I do think he's been notably less helpful in this game.

@Bastion: What. If he's scum surely even then he doesn't know that all his wagon is town.

I did edit out the links, not talking about ongoing games, SO DON'T LINK TO ONGOING GAMES!!!!!
Primate consider yourself warned.

[Primate]

Okay did edit the links out of Primates post, please don't talk about ongoing games. DON'T LINK TO THEM!!!
Primate this is a warning. Post 300 was not cool.

I won't post anything about that again, but your position here is very naive.

Anyway, let's not talk about it now.

[Primate]

Prod dodge. I'll post properly when I get home tonight.

[Primate]

Hiraki's probably town. I get mostly good vibes there.

If we're discussing lurkerlynches, I prefer havingfitz to funkybike by a way. Funkybikes being mostly purposefully incendiary, but Havingfitz has actually done some scummy things.

Vote HavingFitz

[Primate]

What are those scummy things, and why would Funky be purposefully drawing hatred? I'd agree he's been largely shameless, but I fail to see how he's been this absent (or unhelpful when actually posting) without hiding himself away.

re: Funkybike, I actually suspect it's not really planned out with an end in sight like I would expect from a player like IS, but more that it's just a general attitude in the game.

Things I didn't like about Fitz are, first, his #178, where he says he is suspicious of everyone who had accumulated any scummy attention up until that point. He also says it's a toss up between whether he wants to lynch the towns to biggest suspicions. Day 2, he votes sir Bastion, a wagon that stands no chance of going anywhere, and makes sure it's not going anywhere by making no effort to try and convince anyone else of why they should be doing it. I'm also not a fan of what he does in #357, where he criticizes someone for saying Yos probably isn't a wolf. It's purposeless mudslinging. He also has been one of the worst offenders in the lurking.

[Primate]

Posting to avoid prod until I get off work..

[Primate]

Heh, I just spent 10 minutes thinking about the mechanics of the various factions involved and came up with a fun one where if we lynch WW today the other one is pushed into a situation where he's forced to no-kill in order to not chance the mafia winning. I was thinking that lynching wolf today is the plan cause we could get back to majority, but yeah, I agree now it isn't.

Primate was rare in posting on day 1 but when he posted he was full of thoughts and info. He only has 12 posts, but all his posts on day 2 are either prod dodges or one or two lines his only substantial post was a small breakdown of what he didnt like about Havingfitz and a meta post that was edited.

You of all people should know this isn't a tell for me. You've had other players tell you I am a lurker regardless of alignment, so you should really know better than to apply a general tell to me that specifically doesn't apply. I was replaced out of another game day 2 of this one, and you know what happened in the other game we played together. I'm a lurker generally, and these past couple of months have been particularly bad even for me. Doesn't make me scum.

Also, the obvious rebuttal to the fact that I did less on D2 than D1 is that D1 was longer and had generally more posts. The reason for the prod dodges was that if I didn't post I would be replaced and I didn't want to be replaced. A couple of those times I then didn't post when I said I would because I was doing other things and honestly mafia's really feeling like a chore at the minute.

In response to the rest of your post, there really isn't any reason to focus on the Havingfitz wagon. I feel like an idiot for starting it, and I will be very annoyed if Funkybike flips scum, but there are so many scum around not that really we're just townhunting. There are probably scum on all the wagons.

My hypocop -
N1 - Yosarian (not wolf)
N2 - TheOtherFiction (not wolf)

[Primate]

That wasn't in response to the prod by the way, just knew I had to post around now and was a bit late.

[Primate]

I was just thinking, and I'm wondering whether best way to tell scumgroup alignment is to look at game setup speculation. It's pretty shit considering that it's Wifomy as hell, but I've been trying for a bit now to read people and I just don't think it's possible to figure out what group someone is in until someone dies.

That said, probably the realistic view is to just try for scum and hope we get lucky.

[Primate]

There isn't really a specific intentional reason. It's mostly that at the beginning of day 1 I was behind a lot and I felt a bit of pressure to catch up and make sure that people knew my reads on people. D2 I didn't really feel that pressure for some reason. Maybe it's because others were lurking or something. Also it was the case that I didn't really have any major shake ups in my reads D2, with the exception of a strong town read on Hiraki which wasn't really there D1.

What I mean about the wifom isn't anything specific to jungle republic. What I mean is analyzing mentions of and mafia/werewolves and hoping that there's something in there that hints at an alignment in some way. The other thing which falls under this umbrella of wifom is nightkill analysis, working on the theory wolves will kill people suspicious of them, or thinking mislynch targets are town or whatever. It can't really be analyzed to well, but it is information, and there is an interpretation of it that is right.

Got to be honest I think that you may be underestimating the protection Funky recieved, if he is mafia. Attacking havingfitz yesterday was a defense of Funkybike, in it's way, and there were plenty of people on that.

@Yos: I don't think so. Play is for you to no-kill, seer to claim, then no-lynch and then you kill. I've changed my mind and agree that you're probably right outside that though, I was overrating the confirmed seer making lynches preferable to night-kills.

[Primate]

Scooby: You think you're not coasting through the game? Ok, then. Other then Funky, who do you think is scum? Who do you think is town?

Would also like to hear this.

[Primate]

I was going to hammer, but I want scooby to put his opinions down first.

[Primate]

Wolves would know their kill. TOF is mafia if scum.

@Scooby: sure. I will post my reads later.

[Primate]

Starting to post now. Posting this so I don't have to rush to avoid falling into prod range.

[Primate]

Sir Bastion

- I feel SirB's been consitently townie.

iamausername/Elmo

- I think Elmo's probably townie.

Rhinox

- Probably scum, mostly through process of elimination. There are a couple of times I've disliked things you've said, but I don't really think there's anything in here that can't be attributed to an excessively agressive playstyle. If I'm wrong it's here.

Yosarian2

- Again, mostly process of elimination. I just haven't really been getting a town vibe from you. There's nothing really odd about that because if I recall correctly I normally have a neutral read on you (though I have had townie and scum ones before). Mostly process of elimination.

scooby

- I think scooby is probably scum. I agree with Yos's accusation of skating. I don't think he's made any attempt at all to try and push the TOF, FB wagons bar putting his vote on them and repeating the fact he is suspicious. As I said before, I think he was unfair in the way he debated TOF D1.

TheOtherFiction

- I think theotherfaction is probably mafia. This is pretty much entirely becasue of the Hiraki still alive slip, which I consider legitimate. The only reason I have to really doubt this is that both crypto and Hiraki ( Hiraki especially), were suspicious of TOF, and if she was trying to relieve pressure on herself though nightkills, those were good kills for her.

The main reason I think she's scum is because of the fact that she has been very passive when not under any pressure. After a Day one which had a fair amount of content, she slipped directly into a back-seat. I think her votes have generally poor, the Crypto and Rhinox votes being useless, and the scooby vote looking like a fence-sitting on fb/hf.

funkybike1

- I think funkybike is scum. He hasn't done anything at all to make me believe that he is town, and the thoughtlessness of his bandwagonning has made me pretty much give up on the idea that because he's being brazen he's town. I think Yos's position of being worried about how quickly the wagon was going is mostly bunkum. After yesterday, I'd say funkybikes behaviour was the kind of behaviour where it's very hard to convince anyone else that he is town, you may believe it yourself due to meta or behaviour reasons, but articulating it sounds silly. In that situation, I think it's entirely possible that his scumbuddies decided not to put too much effort in to block his lynch out of the fear that because of his behaviour, he will be lynched anyway, and becauase they didn't get on the bussing earlier, their faction is more likely to be obvious.

It's 2/3/3, not a standard lylo, and it's entirely possible for, even if all mafia stay off the wagon, a lynch to be driven though, and given the way funkybike is acting, and the support for lynching him there was yesterday, I wouldn't be stunned at all if mafia tried to get on the wagon early. I use mafia in these examples because they have more numbers and it's more pronounced there, I think it applies equally, though in a slightly different way, to wolves.

@Rhinox: I did say to him I'd do this soon, so it's not like I brushed scooby off.

I think TOF is more likely to be mafia scum, and I quite strongly feel that it's in our best interest to lynch there today, so

Vote: TheOtherFiction

[Primate]

I think what Rhinox means is keep it in the day game. And he's right there. I too feel more comfortable deciding this during the day than letting johnny wolf do it at night.

[Primate]

Also the funkybike wagon you describe as possibly happening within minutes very nearly did happen. If scooby had posted his opinions whilst FB was still at -1 I would have hammered and he would have been gone. Other wagons are starting now, but there was a huge push on FB at daybreak.

[Primate]

I think what Rhinox means is keep it in the day game.

I KNOW

And he's right there. I too feel more comfortable deciding this during the day than letting johnny wolf do it at night.

WE CAN'T

If we lynch wolf/town, today, the decision as to who the mafia is is entirely wolf-made tonight.

If we lynch mafia today, then no matter what happens over night, we get another day tomorrow. The possible outcomes of that are 2m/2w/2T or 1m/2w/3t . Neither of these situations win anyone the game and the day game remains in control.

Also, I don't think FB is town, and I wouldn't object to lynching him, I just don't think that your point that there must be someone defending because he hasn't been lynched already is valid.

[Primate]

Vote: Funkybike

I'd prefer a TOF lynch, but I don't particularly think that's likely to happen.

[Primate]

haha, I just realised we got funkybike to claim seer targets after he'd claimed vanilla.

:derp:

[Primate]

<-Not seer.

[Primate]

Hey SirB good way to get yourself in with the only person in the game who doesn't know for a fact you are scum. (also: lol)

If scooby claims seer I am going to punch him in the face.

[Primate]

Cool.

Yos is a wolf, and we shall be lynching him today, but first, we should give him the opportunity to share his thoughts on who his partner should be killing tonight.

There are upsides and downsides to this. Interesting to see if he does it.

[Primate]

Vote: Yosarian2

[Primate]

Interesting move from the wolves here, leaving it until the day game to decide who the remaining mafia are. Got to say it wouldn't have been my move, but hey. Got anything IAMU?

[Primate]

I just figured out why the wolves didn't kill. It's cause with 5 aive only two people are town. If he killed seer, then that means the mafia would know x is town/wolf and y is town/wolf. I know it's not helpful, but I don't wholly see the benefit of not killing.

That means that if we lynch the other wolf today, town loses. If mafia is lynched today, then wolf can kill making it a three way endgame that town loses, or the game could be a tie. Unless the towns-man votes no lynch so then mafia nor wolf could vote together because the mafia would be outted, die that night and wolf wins. But nevertheless, the town can't win, can they? Unless, of course, we lynch mafia today and wolf kills mafia, but that's not possible.


Guys, is town just screwed, or is it just me? Seer should probably out innocents at this point, if that innocent is alive.

If he killed seer mafia would have won. 2m/1W/1T is maf victory. Seer outing doesn't really do anything of note and IAMU's dealing with it right.

I've been mostly playing skyrim like a madman the past couple of days so I haven't really been thinking about it much though. That said, there are some things that are notable.

First is the fact that Scooby-ToF was a bit of a thing D1 and Scooby has talked up his own contributions to that wagon a fair bit, so that's worth a look to see if there's any bussing there.

Yos is interesting in hindsight for a couple of reasons. Firstly that he managed to get a raise out of ToF that is uncharacteristic for her behaviour this game D1. Also his sudden move against scooby in the late game.

I'm wondering whether we have ToF-SirB as mafia and Yos's move against Scooby was him throwing some distance between them under the assumption that as an experienced player still left he'd be seer'd that night.

Not going to do it right now because late, but I need to take a look at the two of them to see if there's any distant things tying them together. Might as well properly do rinox/yos whilst I'm at it.

[Primate]

No, I think you may be a wolf, because of Yos2, who was a werewolf. If I look into that and there is something to it, I will revise my opinion that you are mafia.

[Primate]

No, I think you may be a wolf, because of Yos2, who was a werewolf. If I look into that and there is something to it, I will revise my opinion that you are mafia.

I miss something?

I'm wondering whether we have ToF-SirB as mafia

and Yos's move against Scooby was him throwing some distance between them under the assumption that as an experienced player still left he'd be seer'd that night.

Err, yes? The second part of the first thing you quoted where I said I hold the opinion that ToF is mafia?

I specifically put that there to be unambiguous that my position was that I believe her to be mafia but there are also reasons to suspect she might be wolf.

[Primate]

ESSAY QUESTION (for all but Primate)

Bearing in mind the following facts:

a) you know that there are five roles remaining in this game: one seer, one townie, one wolf and two mafia.
b) you know that I am the seer.
c) you are, or at least would like me to believe that you are, the townie.
d) you know from my investigation that Primate is not the wolf.
e) you know that we are aiming to lynch mafia today.

please explain, in 500 words or fewer, why you are NOT voting for Primate right now.

Haha, I hadn't actually twigged to this either.

I actually am the townie, which makes this whole situation even more amusing.