Mini Normal 2191 | Endgame
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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...and what was this theory?In post 562, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Your role was very inactive yesterday. I had a theory and wanted to see if my theory was likely.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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...No, absolutely not. Checking a slot that is an assumed counter claim is a waste of time, 100%. Especially given neapolitan powers, the likely result is that ghe confirms that the claimed power role is not a VT, which tells you xactly nothing about their alignment. I have a feeling I'm going to be annoyed at his theory for checking me regardless, but that's poor reasoning for a vote.
(I've skimmed enough to know what the claims are, but am reading from the start right now, still in the early game)-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Why did you check clidd?In post 579, Cabd wrote:I'm honestly kicking myself in hindsight for not checking umlaut because it prolly would have been a guilty.
Oh well. Clidd is officially a mason. With himself for now but hey. Welcome to stone cutting class.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Well, I'm getting to your replace in and you had him as a townread, curious as to why that changed?In post 583, Cabd wrote:I feel like it's fairly obvious why I checked Clidd. He's essentially my own play style but not in my slot... I know exactly how dangerous it is to town read that effort, and that the play style snows towns hard. SO if I lived, getting to KNOW he is town and can know all work we do together is genuine? That's rad.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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But fuzzy is something like 99% certainty to be scum from your POV, yes? A cop guilty on his partner would put the game in a state of virtual autowin. Why on earth would you not check someone you believe likely to be teamed with him?In post 586, Cabd wrote:He is a townread.
I don't see cop as always something you hero play with trying to get a guilty. I see it as a way to remove paranoia from the board about players you think could be capable of getting past you extremely well.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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All right, I've read through all of day 1, haven't taken any sort of notes this time but have reads I feel decently about, but I'm going to wait on fuzzy outing his result on me. Think he's trueclaiming although it says nothing about his alignment, but don't want to influence anything by posting reads prematurely.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Should pretty much always be resolving in investigative claims today, not outside. But if you're just doing this to indicate you suspect me, well, fine. We'll handle that later.
I have a depressing hunch it'll be something that makes senseIn post 599, Maduisha wrote:I really look forward to the "theory" that justifies checking Lenora/Maxwell slot instead of Cabd, because I feel that "theory" was thrown as a buzzword.
The only reason I think I would be fine with would be if he found crumbing from Lenora and wanted to check in case she was "vanilla" and tried to claim her crumb, but the reason he gave Maxwell was "she was very inactive" and I think that won't have anything to do with crumbs or anything that makes actual sense for his role usage, lol.to himbut is a rather poor use of the role nonetheless. Neapolitan hereshouldbe going for a clear since they can't get a hard guilty.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Yes, I confirm fuzzy's result is correct, I'm a doctor. Did a very very light skim after my replace in and protected clidd last night. Little bit annoyed that I was the check for that reason, but what's done is done and I'm not terribly useful otherwise anyway. Typical expectation for a 9p setup is 2 town power roles, I don't really believe for a second both investigative claims are town. More in a moment.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Strongly inclined to think fuzzy's the legitimate claim, his play as I'm seeing it makes sense for him, some of it might not make sense to others but I don't see him claiming the way he did as scum and his attempts to analyze peopl felt believable, by comparison his recent scumgame had not much depth of thought overall. By contrast see a lot of scum motivation Cabd's claim and thought he + koba were quite scummy overall.
If Cabd is scum I think the most likely partner is Maduisha, were a few things when I was reading I didn't like but this is sort of a gut feeling. Could also see nepenthe as scum though as I feel he's been super underwhelming, but had a slight sense that may have been strong belief in his clidd push even if I think it's really wrong.
If I'm wrong and fuzzy is scum (been fooled by bad PR claims before), then nepenthe is pretty much the only person I see as a partner.
Think clidd and Umlaut are pretty likely town no matter what.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Fuzzy, there is quite literally no way town would have a full cop and a neapolitan in a 9p setup to begin with, and if you were both town it's highly implausible they wouldn't try to kill or roleblock either of you, because two investigations potentially locks the game for town. Only reason for you both being alive is because one of you is fake and was hoping to get the town one eliminated today.
Also, if I'm going to get outed as a PR by your report, I have no choicebutto claim, I can't say nothing.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Curious as to what you mean by this? My scumgame's pretty crap but I don't think I've played like this in the scum replace-ins I've had.In post 621, clidd wrote:As for you, Max, I had a very subjective reason to think that your entry was scummy, based on meta.
Admit my reads aren't really fleshed out, at this point I'm just firing off gutreads based on my readthrough, the reasoning will come later. Not really in a rush to dump content into the thread.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Hah, not that important right now, I suppose.In post 625, clidd wrote:You will laugh if I show you the reason I based my scummy impression.
Still want to see?
Completely understand, will get to it when I have time.In post 626, clidd wrote:Anyways, I do need to see your reasoning. It's important to me.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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So, to start let me try to explain why I think fuzzy's town. I hate to give vague reasoning like this, but the way he gives reads in posts like 252 271 303 all looks like legitimate attempts to gamesolve, the conclusions I frequently disagree with but it looks like he believes them, he's assessing people's posts and putting out his own thoughts on them. That sort of thing can be faked but from his recent scumgame he seems to struggle significantly at faking his reasoning as scum and I don't get a sense of that here.
Then, the way he claimed:
This isn't scum claiming a PR for self-preservation reasons. It seems as though even he wasn't really aware at the time of how useful the neapolitan role is. I just do not see scum claiming in this fashion, making the "you can mislim me if you want" type of statement.In post 373, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:I am a 2x Neapolitan. I am okay with being mislim today but I rather not.I dont see my role as being that useful as there prob more than 4 power roles and prob one mafia goon. This is just a guess based on my role.
There's also the fact that he still won't push back on Cabd even with most people saying it's very unlikely both of them are town. This is not how someone who's afraid of getting boxed in by cop investigations talks:
In post 615, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Off Topic discussion
- Thats sound good. Is there a lot of good Chinese food in Chicago? Let me know how the food was. Also now know who to ask if I want some great Chicago Style pizza. Not a lot of good pizza places where I live.
sorry for the tangent. Anyways enjoy the food.
ok back to the game
Not knowing what the scum have it might not be a good idea for a mass claim. Don't think that Max claiming doctor was a great move. At least we know that we will get a result tonight as Max can protect Cabd tonight
I think there's a very legitimate naivete here with regard to the roles, where he doesn't seem concerned at all whether anyone is fakeclaiming. I don't get a sense he's acting with an agenda here at all, where scum needs to push someone as elimination, and he just keeps assuming people are town.In post 616, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Max is there any reason not to believe Cabd. I can't see any reason to see her faking this atp.
There's also the fact that, although I don't necessarily agree with it, his reasoning for investigating lenora's slot at least makes sense and is entirely consistent with his play on day 1.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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By contrast, I felt koba's early play was scummy, they came in strong throwing out reads early but their reasoning was thin and they quickly sort of faded into the background, as the game slowed down they visibly lost any interest in solving before the ban took them out of the game. In particular, when lenora questioned them on their early townread of chumbo and voted them for it, they gave this response:
In post 135, DkKoba wrote:In post 100, lenora wrote:
it's not the aggression itself that i find scummy though, it's the explanations.. like townreading Chumbo because he doesn't look like he has informationIn post 99, ben dover123 wrote:
Well I'm fairly certain that Koba is usually this aggressive and I don't think this relates to "struggling to explain their reads/reasons" in the slightest, it's just how Koba plays the game.In post 98, lenora wrote: i saw it as a bit OTT/performative - i'd maybe feel differently if they re-evaluated from it or if I saw the test on nepenthe as useful, but i'm getting the sense that koba is struggling to explain their reads/reasons
VOTE: dkkoba
im a smart player and can see a player who is bumbling around without info on any other slot from a mile away.
do you think chumbo is scum?
This, to me, is the sort of evasion scum do - lenora says koba's reasoning for townreading chumbo was scummy, and koba makes it about chumbo and not about he reasoning for their read - making the argument into "oh, so what, do you think he's scum?". They get a little too righteous in their defense because they know they're (presumably) defending a correct read, but the issue being raised was never whether or not chumbo was town but whether koba had good reason to believe chumbo was town, and in my opinion, at that point in the game, they did not.
Afterwards, Cabd on sub in just doesn't put a whole lot of work toward solving, he calls a few people town without reasoning and drops a case on Umlaut that feels confirmation biasy, the sort of thing I might write as scum where I take everything a person says and call it scummy. But past that, when people don't really bite, he just goes along with whatever's happening in thread, doesn't push anything else, doesn't show a strong sense of sumhunting, is mostly conversing with people rather than analyzing.
I think in particular the timing of his claim is opportunistic and speaks to scum trying to push through a miselimination on a town investigative PR, I simply don't believe town in his situation ever caims there because doing so would risk simply getting NK'ed, where I don't think from his thread presence to that point it was likely. The way he talks about how he doesn't think their roles can coexist but how recent setup design is weird feels like he's trying to build in an excuse to survive after a fuzzy townflip. I also don't really buy his reasoning for investigating clidd whatsoever - in a 9p setup, there are typically 2 mafia, and investigating a townread when you believe you already have one mafia by claim is a complete waste - fact is I don't believe Cabd-town chooses not to investigate Umlaut here, ever, but doing so as scum would mean he'd have to either clear him or fake guilty him, and I don't believe for a moment he wants to do either of those. I absolutely don't believe both claimed investigatives are town, and of the two I find him a lot more inauthentic.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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I don't have a lot of words to explain my clidd read, it's just one of those feelings I got as I went along, "hm, yes, this person is trying to solve the game" but I couldn't point you to a specific post. This is the sort of read where I'm most likely to go wrong because it's purely on feelings but I can't say I've seen anything that raises an alarm for me.
As for Umlaut, his reactions to pressure have felt very genuine, stuff like this:In post 292, Umlaut wrote:
Wow this read is terrible. I literally made a post proposing a townbloc of 3-5 which is "shrinking the pool" if ever there was such a thing, and the example you cite with Nepenthe and my continuing to say I townread them is literally the opposite of pushing back on softclearing a player. Why are you just making things up?In post 288, Cabd wrote:Here's what gut-pinged me in the Umlaut ISO.... it's giving me feelings of "annoyed that the pool is shrinking" from him. (BORKTELL!!!!) Feels like there's pushback on anything that could at all softclear a player on day one. For example, a player having great posts then not posting for a bit doesn't change the contents of those initial posts?In post 293, Umlaut wrote:I rarely go all "how DARE you scumread me" the way some people do but this just fails the most cursory inspection
This feels like a townie upset at being accused for reasons they see as unbelievable, not fake scum anger. Subsequent approach to Cabd where he tried to figure out if he was legitimately suspecting him, and decided he may be town weho's wrong didn't feel like scum reflexively OMGUSingIn post 582, Umlaut wrote:
If you think scum!me ever kills Ben last night I need to know what drugs you're taking and where I can get some.In post 579, Cabd wrote:I'm honestly kicking myself in hindsight for not checking umlaut because it prolly would have been a guilty.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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For Maduisha, this is not particularly a strong read but I'm somewhat building off the assumption of Cabd-scum and the early koba-nepenthe interactions make them less likely to be aligned. This isn't infallible, though, and I can't say nepenthe on play has been strongly town - I get a sense that their push on clidd might be something they sincerely believe, but overall he's been underwhelming is notably avoiding the thread. If I[m wrong on fuzzy I think he is the only person who really makes sense as a partner
Maduisha dose give me vibes of being a bit safe, lot of questioning people, but not strong pushes, this is just a feeling though, I don't have a full scumcase, mainly POE and associations. This post in particular did set me off a little, though:
Although I I felt the posts there from fuzzy were town, the way she explains it bothers me - he'sIn post 277, Maduisha wrote:As for Fuzzy, I feel like he has poured the effort to read through the thread and it shows in the way he complimented the commentaries with links to the posts he refers to when commenting them. I liked that, but it's becoming a little hard to read a slot that mostly posts on weekends.putting in the effort to read the thread? And it's shown byputting in links? But he's hard to read because he posts at a particular time. The whole thing was very strange and awkward to me, it felt like a fake read, with little concern to actually interact with what he was saying.
But this isn't a full-blown scumcase, I wouldn't vote Maduisha today, think voting between investigative claims is the way to go.-
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maxwell
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Me: repeatedly makes a point about how I do not believe there can be multiple investigative roles in a 9 player setup, and how I think Cabd's play has scum motivation behind it and his actions don't really add up as coming from townIn post 660, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:I am not understanding your frustration. It seems like mislim a claimed cop is just a terrible idea. Explain why I am wrong here. Nep and me seem like the wild cards in the situration so sorting us out seems like the optimal move for town.... Killing a claim cop seems like is not. Please explain how I am wrong?
You: but I don't see why Cabd does this as scum-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Neighborizer is basically a neutral role, if town it's a slight impediment to fuzzy's role in that it's another role he receives a non-VT result on. Closed normals are maybe slightly heavier on the power roles than semi-opens these days but 2 fairly town investigatives in a 9p is really entirely out of the question with no godfather role that's capable of producing false positives.In post 664, Maduisha wrote:Does 4 PR make sense in a 9 people game? I come from playing exclusively newbie queue where there are usually only 2.
Why would he expect a counter claim when fuzzy had already claimed as town investigative? There would be little reason to expect further counters, I don't buy this reasoning at all, entire motive here as scum is to provide justification for a miselimination on town, where otherwise fuzzy would be unvotable by virtue of his claim. The cover is a play that superficially looks fancy and therefore makes people assume it's town but feels largely like smoke and mirrors to me, the flash is mainly served to make him look good and have an explanation for why mafia didn't just NK him, don't buy the timing of his claim in the first place as townieMaduisha wrote:I don't think I'm gonna join that Cabd train simply because I don't think scum!Cabd would claim PR completely unprompted because he'd open himself to counter claim D1 when he was absolutely not endangered that day + he would throw away his JOAT cover. As scum, I don't think he has any reason to stop pretending to be JOAT. In fact, I think it'd give him a perfect reason to be alive for a couple of turns due to supposed wifom done to scum + supposed self protection powers.
and this is of course eliding the main point that cop investigating a townread player like clidd makes no sense from a town perspective but makes plenty of sense from the perspective of scum who doesn't want to hand the town too much information by outing a report . However much you may disagree with fuzzy's "theory" behind his investigation, itmakes sensewith how he spoke about lenora on day 1.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Not in my opinion. Utility of a scum neapolitan is pretty limited in my opinion, adding a role to obfuscate this makes it sort of useless.In post 669, Maduisha wrote:
Actually, doesn't this play more into scum!Fuzzy scenario? A town player with a role (Umlaut) specifically designed to fuck with another town player's role (Fuzzy)...In post 667, maxwell wrote:Neighborizer is basically a neutral role, if town it's a slight impediment to fuzzy's role in that it's another role he receives a non-VT result on.
But if Umlaut's role is made to make scum think they hit cop/doctor/other heavy PR, only to murder a 1-shot FN, wouldn't it make more sense for a balanced gameboard for Fuzzy's role to belong to scum?
But again, setup spec is hardly the most important thing to my evaluation of the claims. Think fuzzy is way more town on play, the fact he can't get it through his head both claims cannot be real is not scum agenda, it's extreme gullibility.
Would strongly agree with this, neighborizer claim is basically non alignment indicativeUmlaut wrote:1-Shot Neighborizer is in my opinion barely a PR at all (I never really figured out what I'm supposed to do with a neighborhood).-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Thats about the response I expected. Are you seriously trying to claim in a rolecop/goon setup, I replace in and try to kill neither of two claimed investigatives? When doing so risks getting guiltied into autoloss? Or that I try to push an elimination on, BY FAR, the more difficult vote of the two? As scum I'd have gotten 4 votes on fuzzy with no problem.
Well, honestly, I'm not here to spar with you, the ones I need to talk to are fuzzy, clidd, and samantha (strongly suspect maduisha's read is a positional one at this point). Here to talk to them, not to yell at you.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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We miss today, scum just claims a fake guilty in ELo, that 'information' isn't worth much, and theres always one player who unthinkingly sheeps it (fuzzy looks like he'd follow cabd off a cliff at this point). Entirely better to resolve the claims today, you can eliminate me for all I care if you promise to sheep me.In post 692, samantha97 wrote:
the part preceding itIn post 690, Cabd wrote:How did you get here?
cabd: cop
clidd: ??? town result + neighbor
maxwell: doctor
fuzzy: neopolitan
umlaut: neighborizer
maduisha: vanilla
me: vanilla
tomorrow 5 will likely be alive, and we'll have the information from your role and/or fuzzy's, or information in the lack of information, plus the death result(s)
although I did take for granted neighborizer would be town, and I just looked it up and saw it can be any
basically you get more from leaving power roles (fake or not) sans neighborizer alive today than a vanilla, and since I know I am vanilla that leaves the other vanilla or neighborizer
As it is, your vote on maduisha stands basically no chance of getting through, you're more suspected than her by everyone except me because of nepenthe's inactivity and it's not really likely you're going to be able to shift those impressions given the amount of time and the gamestate.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Yes, that's correct, we have one remaining miselimination before ELo.In post 698, samantha97 wrote:
what I meant there was that the next day would be lylo?In post 695, samantha97 wrote:then we only could mess up once... right?
if we lynch today the pool would be reduced and we'd have 2 shots instead of 1, unless I'm missing something-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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This just comes across as visibly fencesitting. Both of us are quite convinced the other is scum, and you're talking about letting night actions resolve us instead of just using the elimination, ignoring completely the scenario where one of us is scum and you're faced with a 50/50 tomorrow, with nothing learned from it.In post 709, Maduisha wrote:Right now what is in my head is that we're actually better off eliminating outside of [Cabd, Max], because if Cabd really is town, they don't want to leave Cabd alive to get another clear/possibly a guilty. But with a doctor around (assuming Max to be town too), they probably have to shoot Max before they can get to Cabd at all (if we can convince Max to protect Cabd). If they shoot Max, we have one more turn of Cabd investigation. So, I believe Max's slot will sort itself during the night phase, if we trust that Cabd is town.
I guess I'm really trying to seriously avoid considering scum!Cabd scenario for the sake of my sanity, the way he claimed is just not scum in my mind. I haven't had much sleep, so my logic might not be too good right now. Someone please let me know if it makes sense to leave both of them alone for today, I think it's a good move, but I understand it relies heavily in trusting Cabd is town and I understand that might be controversial for others that don't share my view on his moves during D1.
Do you actually, truly believe we are both town? Then who is the scum team, in your opinion?-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Just because youbelieveit doesn't make it so, pretty sure Neapolitans are townsided more often than not and his play pretty clearl doesn't make sense from a scum perspective.
There are only 7 people left alive, you're flagrantly avoiding trying to scumhunt or make a conclusion here. It should not be hard to take some sort of stance, at all. Are you seriously proposing that fuzzy and nepenthe's slot are teamed? He is voting them. His response to me pushing on Cabd was to say something to the effect of, "I dont want to vote a cop, let's vote nepenthe". You realize from his position this would be bussing into autoloss? There's absolutely no way a rational player could actually think fuzzy and nepenthe are teamed here.Maduisha wrote:So, from my point of view the scum team is Fuzzy + ???. And the empty space is someone that is fake claiming, or the newest replacement. As I don't have any leads so far on the partner, and people want to eliminate one of the claimed PR to sort stuff out, I'd rather eliminate the "lesser cop" if we truly were to be wrong about the NK. I understand why other people would not share my view, but I don't understand why are you calling me out for fencesitting.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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No, actually, accusing me of this because I'm pointing out your deliberate avoidance of taking any sort of stance is in extremely bad taste. You're resorting to emotional manipulation because I called you on your behavior. In the very post before this, you straddle multiple fences at the same time: Oh, samanthaIn post 719, Maduisha wrote:Honestly, we can agree or disagree on an opinion and you can trash my reads, go against my proposal, or anything else you'd see fitting, but claiming I'm not trying to scumhunt or solve as a whole simply because you don't agree with my way to solve is in bad taste and upsetting. I won't tell you how to play because I don't have any right to, but I'd appreciate not having my efforts to understand the game handwoven simply because our mindsets don't meld together.couldbe scum, Icouldbe scum, Umlautcouldbe scum, you're refusing to take a stance on half the slots in the game, it shouldn't be this hard to give some sort of attempt at a read on people, avoiding the subject like this is incredibly scummy
In my estimation, one of the claims had to be fake, a sacrifice kill was unlikely, better to protect someone who looked towny at a glance that I wanted to keep in the game.In post 721, Umlaut wrote:Max, I'll admit I haven't read very carefully, so maybe you've already answered this. Whydidyou protect clidd, as opposed to one of the two alleged investigators? It's a surprising choice. About equally as surprising as Cabd investigating clidd instead of Fuzzy.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Fuzzy, can you please, please give some consideration to the people here who have an understanding of setup balance who are telling you it is basically impossible that your role, a cop, and a doctor exist inside the same setup. I'm saying it, Cabd is saying it, Umlaut has actually modded normal games, we can't all be scum.In post 720, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:i think it is likely scum is claiming vanilla. Giving my role and Cabd role it is likely one is claiming VT to make the balance seem more town heavy then it is. As i believe Cabd role.
TBF it is weird that Cabd investigated Clidd instead of me since i was the number 1 suspect yesterday. Part of me thinks that it was that she was paranoid and wanted to make sure Clidd was town since he was TR by almost everyone. The other is i might be wrong and for some reason and Cabd is fake claiming.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Nah, you're deliberately being evasive in your stances. You're refusing to commit to a read on multiple players or analyze the likelihood of possible scumteams, because if you try to actually look for a scumbuddy for fuzzy, it falls apart pretty quickly. Last I communicate with you on the matter. Fairly sure you're scum now so I'm not going to bother debating you anymore. My words are for those I need to convince.-
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Why'd you look at the meta of those players in particular?In post 731, samantha97 wrote:I just went through all of chumbo's mafia games, then compared 2 of maduisha's (town/mafia), and 2 of cabd's (town games - not mafia for years?) to this one
chumbo gave me nothing
viewtopic.php?p=12524008&user_select%5B%5D=35093 this game
viewtopic.php?p=12449995&user_select%5B%5D=35093 mason
viewtopic.php?p=12381275&user_select%5B%5D=35093 mafia
maduisha's were surprisingly similar, the main thing I noticed was that she was aggressive a lottt faster as town, and with mafia her tone visibly shifted. I also noticed a tendency to post too much information compared to town, like not a "slip" but rather trying too hard
viewtopic.php?p=12524333&user_select%5B%5D=33961 this game
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=82949&user_select%5B%5D=33961 mafia
viewtopic.php?p=12469439&user_select%5B%5D=33961 town
I was planning to keep going down the list of players before posting anything, but holy heck is cabd posting differently in this game. I mean I get that they are games of different sizes with different players, and that can affect what you write a lot, but it's like night and day
viewtopic.php?p=12569559&user_select%5B%5D=20847 this game
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=84949&user_select%5B%5D=20847 town 1
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85085&user_select%5B%5D=20847 town 2
it's so stark that it's noticeable even if you don't read what he wrote and just scroll down the pages quickly-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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She's been in the game for 2 days and has made reads, is trying to meta everyone in the game apparently, there's nothing at all to believe she's not legitimately trying to solve the game.In post 752, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Max- what do you think of Sam's general activity level. To me it seems like (except for the above post )they has done little and is pretty much lurking . Giving the VT claim which is a pretty safe claim it seems like it is possible she is scum maybe hiding back and seeing if town will miselim themself. Any thoughts?
@Max- If i get pocketed by pizza talk am okay with that. I am like Chewbacca. Always thinking with my stomach.
seriously though I dont take those convos in consideration when TR or SR a player. Though i do love pizza
Compare that to Maduisha, who's been in the game the entire time but isn't even trying to take stances on most of the players.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Why clidd, out of curiosity?In post 759, samantha97 wrote:I don't have the same time invested as you all so I won't be that bothered if you lynch me today, but you are going to be in lylo tomorrow if you do
since I'm going to bed I'll just say that my instinct was that clidd and cadb were mafia going into day 2, it's only roles gave me any reason to think otherwise-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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I think voting in VTs is just punting on a hard decision because you're afraid of getting it wrong, on a day where we're allowed to get it wrong. Ultimately, in a sam-town world, where does that leave us? Cabd claims a guilty tomorrow and you're left trying to sort who is fakeclaiming PR, still. Same decision we're facing down today. At that point do people finally consider maduisha scum? I sort of doubt it. Meanwhile if we eliminate one of us today, we learn that person is town, their read on their counterpart is good, their partner has tied themselves to them enough this day phase that they can be caught.
Like, in a hypothetical world where I'm scum with sam, I can't win no matter what, basically. One of us gets flipped after the other pretty much always. What concerns me is the idea that I get ignored > she gets eliminated and flips town > I STILL get ignored despite having been right about her. I would legitimately vote myself before voting sam.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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I think my exchange with Maduisha pretty much sealed the idea in my mind that she's scum. I think the way she's playing is cautious/avoidant and that comes from scum in a situation where the pushes they can make are limited to certain strategic ones. I can try to case it to make it easy to understand but I'm not sure if I'll be able to explain it in a way that'll come across.In post 767, clidd wrote:Max, do you think Maduisha is actually more likely to be scum than Sam? I would like to see a scumcase or something like that if you have the energy. If not, just summarize by citing posts.
Nothing Sam has done so far has given me the impression that she is genuinely town/solving.
I admit, sam's posts have been underwhelming, the vote on madu on entering wasn't great simply because it showed a lack of awareness to the gamestate, but do I think she's scum for it? It feels less likely because I don't see her making any sort of strategic push that would be advantageous to scum.
I could of course just be wrong, typing it over made me doubt myself a little bit, because I could still see her as possibly being scum, I can't say her posting has been super townie or anything, it's just my feelings about Maduisha overriding everything at the moment.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Should also clarify that I'm still far more confident in cabd-scum than I am of Maduisha which is why I'd rather resolve the PR claims today. There is a slight speculative element to my read in that I somewhat doubt Cabs pulls a PR counterclaim gambit as scum if his partner is a lurker he can't depend on to carry to endgame, but that's just a guess, not really something to pin a case on.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Sorry, in hindsight, I panicked a bit because I'm tunneled and I tend to get worried when people have seemingly entrenched townreads.In post 773, Umlaut wrote:
Well, I kind of agree that it's putting off a hard decision, but it's putting it off until we have more information, not just putting it off for the sake of not having to think about it. ideally tonight either Mafia helps us choose by killing a PR or we get another actual PR result (though we do have to decide which result is actual). By eliminating a VT we accomplish this much even if we get it wrong.In post 768, maxwell wrote:I think voting in VTs is just punting on a hard decision because you're afraid of getting it wrong, on a day where we're allowed to get it wrong. Ultimately, in a sam-town world, where does that leave us? Cabd claims a guilty tomorrow and you're left trying to sort who is fakeclaiming PR, still. Same decision we're facing down today. At that point do people finally consider maduisha scum? I sort of doubt it. Meanwhile if we eliminate one of us today, we learn that person is town, their read on their counterpart is good, their partner has tied themselves to them enough this day phase that they can be caught.
Speaking for myself I will absolutely go for Maduisha scum if Sam is known to be town. Pretty sure clidd will as well. Can't speak for anyone else but it's not the insurmountable hill you're making it out to be here.
On review today, I don't find Sam as towny as I did last night, and I have a hard time defending her here. I still believe there's a decent chance based on associations that Maduisha could be scum, but associations can lead down false rabbit holes, as they have for me before. I just know that scum are going to be unwilling to bus their partner today because of the mechanics and that informs my read pretty strongly.In post 779, clidd wrote:Max, are you there?
After a debate, I kind of agree with Umlaut to eliminate between Maduisha and Sam today.
But, again, how confident do you think you're on scum!Maduisha over scum!Sam?
If you guys are willing to lay out a mechanical plan for tonight, I'm okay with a vote on a VT claim today.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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To try to articulate the things that put me at unease: Madu questions Koba about their Chumbo read in 130, complains about being ignored in 142, explains herself again in 148, koba gives a one-line answer right after, that seems to be enough for her, interaction ends there. Later in 227 she gives a read of Koba that is "null because I still don't know how to read them but I think their posts look pretty spontanous so far", fairly noncommital. When Cabd replaces in she's critical of him not explaining his reads in 296, she simultaneously says him no talking about being in his scum meta pings her but concludes, "oh it's probably NAI". The whole thing where she's lightly critical of him but doesn't really push on him triggers my distancing alarms. She ends up switching to hard townreading him in 390 for his posts giving her "authenticity vibes", which is a fairly empty statement (what about it was authentic? Why?) and for continuing his tangent talk with clidd when she said she'd found it suspicious before, which isn't really much of a satisfying explanation, he kept doing the thing that pinged her so that's apparently town, never bothered to articulate his reads, it's like she decided to loltownbin him out of convenience.
I'm probably not going to be able to fully articulate what I didn't like about her D1, I just have something of a bad gut feeling that there was a lot of questioning toward the appearance of being productive and not a lot in the way of strong pressure, the way she voted nepenthe for seemingly contradictory reads on clidd/chumbo's entrances feels like an easy thing to try to score points on someone, the "I believe a little back and forth could help us understand each other, if you are willing to engage with me here." in 449 pings somewhat as it looks like someone trying to be "fair" with their push.
If you're not convinced, that's understandable. I'd still probably guess Maduisha before samantha but typing this out made me really not confident in it at all.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Looking that back up also brought me to look at 266 from nepenthe again, which is a very "eh" read on koba, I don't like how he ultimately only concludes with "I'm wary of that slot" rather than anything concrete, 521 is a hedge where he calls cabd's claim "opportunistic" but comes down with "both could be real", he's expressing doubt but no action, don't like it either.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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I guess the tipping point for me is that Madu seems to be persistent in her pus of fuzzy who I'm pretty sure is town and that speaks scum agenda to me, Sam seems more open to reading the game but hasn't voted anyone other than Madu so I don't know how real it is.
I've successfully un-convinced myself. Go ahead, decide for yourselves I suppose.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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I still lean toward maduisha on interaction but it's something like 70% confidence and if I'm being fully honest I worry if I'm wrong and Samantha is scum and I stand in the way of voting her today, it all comes back on me.In post 790, clidd wrote:Btw, Max, your final conclusion is 50/50 or just Maduisha?-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Cabd checking in a PR claim seems un-optimal, one of me/fuzzy highly likely gets shot in this plan and then the report probably isn't all that informative because the remainng living player is a presumed counterclaim, would think him checking in umlaut/mauisha/samantha (if we mis-eliminate today) is a better choice because it would force a teamIn post 792, Umlaut wrote:I don't understand why you're trusting me with a mech plan when you're closer to conftown than I am (the only way you're scum is if the team is exactly you and Cabd, and that doesn't make a whole lot of sense), but okay...
Assuming Fuzzy is town, he targets within the VT claims, obviously. Probably he should target Maduisha if we're launching Sam today.
Assuming Cabd is town, he targets one of the other two strong PR claims: that is, Fuzzy or Max. It doesn't matter which, a green check on one is as good as a red check on the other. In fact it's probably best that he (privately) flip a coin to minimize predictability, in case scum have something weird like a rolestopper.
Assuming maxwell is town, he protects Cabd tonight. This is obviously correct if we succeed in launching scum today, and if not then Cabd is still the one most likely to give us a definite result.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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That's understandable, but I need to see more of where your head is at. Are you still settled on Maduisha as scum. Who do you see as potentially cum otherwise? You started meta-ing everyone and then it came to a halt, I'd like to hear your thoughts on what people have done inIn post 797, samantha97 wrote:
well both could be wrong, but I find I regret a lack of conviction more than being wrong after a mafia gameIn post 796, maxwell wrote:I still lean toward maduisha on interaction but it's something like 70% confidence and if I'm being fully honest I worry if I'm wrong and Samantha is scum and I stand in the way of voting her today, it all comes back on me.
nothing hurts more than the one that got awaythisgame-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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(if we do get a scumflip I entirely agree he should check a PR claim, of course)In post 799, maxwell wrote:
Cabd checking in a PR claim seems un-optimal, one of me/fuzzy highly likely gets shot in this plan and then the report probably isn't all that informative because the remainng living player is a presumed counterclaim, would think him checking in umlaut/mauisha/samantha (if we mis-eliminate today) is a better choice because it would force a teamIn post 792, Umlaut wrote:I don't understand why you're trusting me with a mech plan when you're closer to conftown than I am (the only way you're scum is if the team is exactly you and Cabd, and that doesn't make a whole lot of sense), but okay...
Assuming Fuzzy is town, he targets within the VT claims, obviously. Probably he should target Maduisha if we're launching Sam today.
Assuming Cabd is town, he targets one of the other two strong PR claims: that is, Fuzzy or Max. It doesn't matter which, a green check on one is as good as a red check on the other. In fact it's probably best that he (privately) flip a coin to minimize predictability, in case scum have something weird like a rolestopper.
Assuming maxwell is town, he protects Cabd tonight. This is obviously correct if we succeed in launching scum today, and if not then Cabd is still the one most likely to give us a definite result.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Scum shooting in vanillas would still be a service, because by the same reasoning it narrows our choices there. In any such instance, he still has to give reports, can check a PR claim on night 3 if we get through day 3.In post 801, Umlaut wrote:Hard disagree. If the PRs are all checking in the vanillas then scum's best plan is to keep all PRs alive and aim for town to eliminate the wrong one. If all Cabd targeting in the PRs does is force scum to kill one of them then that is already a useful service.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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Maybe I'm being dumb but I don't expect a scum to just immediately selfvote here given the situation it would put them in. Her recent posts before that looked believable. I'm going to flip, I think I got tunneled.
VOTE: samantha
To clarify my feelings on the investigation target for Cabd: it's more or less assumed that one of me or fuzzy is likely a counter claim to Cabd because otherwise the setup would be imbalanced, so him checking one of us doesn't change much, o the assumption we are incorrect today. Investigating outside PRs narrows down possible teams and makes people consider different worlds. If there's disagreement, fine, but I want to make my voice heard on that one point.-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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There's always the possibility, but I didn't think she seemed the type, I guess it's something Cabd could have come up with.In post 825, samantha97 wrote:no idea why you guys aren't suspecting that that was a gambit
I mean... it even worked lol
UNVOTE:-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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I don't understand what about that is un-fakeable? Were those your notes on the first 7 pages?In post 859, samantha97 wrote:I know you're still saying you think I'm town but it bugs me regardless so I wanna say this: no mafia is gonna fake #777
when I joined I roleclaimed without even reading any current pages; I had only read page 1-7 and skipped to zulfy's death. I didn't even know what the nk was. I had bendover in my notes as something like "one foot out the door", since he seemed to be noncommittal and playing both sides, but I deleted it when I read up to page 2
to expand on dkkoba being ":3", like I said before, I already am pretty familiar with dkkoba so that was just an intent to search for their use of :3 and see if that was indicative of anything. But it turned out impossible to search that on this site since it was too few characters, and google just turns up with "3" and ignores the colon-
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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maxwell Mafia Scum
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