Mini Normal 2200 | Game Over

[Something_Smart]

If your read is PoE, I don't have anything to say except that your reasoning for townreading people is almost surely not as solid as you think it is. (This is true even in the case of reads that turn out to be right.)

If it's an actual read, then you should defer to the people who've played more with me recently, because my scumgame as of late basically hasn't bussed ever, even when my partner is under heavy pressure (which Farkran wasn't). Because of the way I play it's very easy to just act hesitant and wait for other people to run the wagon up or forget about it. And I never get towncred for bussing anyway.

[Something_Smart]

shading slots that didn’t scumread them

I did this? When?

[Something_Smart]

That is, your read and progression on Farkran didn’t feel natural.

Well... I'm sorry that you don't know how my brain works but you're assuming you do, I guess?

[Something_Smart]

Who's the real scum, S_S?

If I had to pick probably you?

But I'm not confident in that.

[Something_Smart]

How is that shading? I just said you were digging your own grave if Fark is scum.

You were trying to paint it as though Fark was setting you up to get killed after he flipped scum. He wasn't, really. You were setting yourself up for that because of how weirdly and emphatically you were defending him. Regardless of your alignment (and indeed, after his flip I was feeling like you were fairly likely town because of how much of a throw defending him like that would have been).

I apologize if my urge to be snarky got in the way of clarity.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know, 10-15?

This pattern has probably held the last 3-4 times I've been scum, at least.

[Something_Smart]

I have a weird soulread on Lucy being town now ever since that one post she made yesterday.

Remind me which post?

[Something_Smart]

My only reservation with Luca is that he deadass tried to push through a skitter execution instead of a Farkran one.

But if he can pull that off as scum and still have everyone townreading him, I'm fine with losing.

[Something_Smart]

Oh, scum might've thought these were softs and that Mene had an inno of some kind on Lucy

Perhaps. But there are any number of reasons why he could be killed.

I actually think it's pretty plausible that scum-Lucy kills Menalque before he can change his mind on her.

[Something_Smart]

Oops. This one:

Hmm.

I don't know that I've seen Isis's scumgame before, but this doesn't seem like a feeling that she'd be unable to replicate? Like it kinda has to do with out-of-game feelings.

When I think of what I've used to read her in the past it's usually when she has a flurry of thoughts that come stream-of-consciousness and seem to accurately reflect how a townie would be evaluating and changing their mind real-time. I believe she's done this as town in every recent game I've played with her? But I don't think she's done it here.

[Something_Smart]

lol but do you think he did it genuinely? His reasoning and pushes still feel natural and in good faith to me, even if they were wrong.

Well, it's hard to tell. I did feel like he wasn't fully engaging my defense of skitter and we were kinda talking past each other. Of course that can come from a tunneled townie, but I don't think it was clearly good faith.

[Something_Smart]

It's an out-of-game feeling that'd have to be faked though, because it's dependent on her alignment

Well yes and no. The feeling of her not wanting to be misread by you can be real. The only fake part is just her being aware of this and remembering to post it.

[Something_Smart]

How good is Skitter at reading you S_S?

Good, asterisk. I fooled her pretty hard in a recent scumgame, but I think that's the only time I have successfully fooled her.

I was a bit surprised to see her come out of that and call me town again without much paranoia, but if anything that makes her read even more trustworthy.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, that's a possibility, but killing your one defender while everyone else has you in the PoE so early still seems a little dangerous.

Is it true that Lucy was in everyone else's PoE? It seemed to me that the consensus PoE was {me, Alisae} and the biggest threat to that would be Menalque flipping his read on Lucy.

[Something_Smart]

Speaking of, S_S, mind linking us to the town!Fark ISO which gave you that impression?

Not sure how to link the ISO specifically but this is the game

[Something_Smart]

this game is over and the only reason why i just decided to vote ss or whatever is because lucy just seems townie but like it really doesn't matter to me so /shrug

Why doesn't it matter to you? If there's a chance you get executed tomorrow, then it matters a lot.

[Something_Smart]

I mean... if you die it doesn't matter, so you may as well optimize for the case where you do, no?

[Something_Smart]

If you don't die it doesn't matter*

I'm tired ok

[Something_Smart]

I'm p sure no lim is optimal

As long as there's any chance at all of a kill being blocked, it's not.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Lucy

[Something_Smart]

That feels like it would defeat the whole purpose, though I guess you can WIFOM BP/doctor. But I also don't think waiting till ELO to massclaim is as dangerous as people make it out to be.

I will wait for a couple more people to chime in before complying. Also popcorn is stupid.

[Something_Smart]

Porque no los dos?

[Something_Smart]

I'm waiting for Luca to weigh in, since you and Norwee disagree.

[Something_Smart]

People are really bad at respecting a claim order... but I'll take that as assent to the plan. I am not any killing or kill-stopping role.

[Something_Smart]

Me first, then Alisae.

[Something_Smart]

Because Norwee didn't want to do it. I still don't especially think it was right, since a no-exe today does very little for us when we have confirmed townies.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think there's a reason for you to claim, unless you think your claim would indicate that Day could be scum.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not opposed to massclaim, though Luca should make the final decision.

[Something_Smart]

VT.

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE:

Results?

[Something_Smart]

I guess TA always gets inno on someone who's dead, since they're not allowed to communicate with anyone?

That's kinda weird.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah I guess the golden rule means that the kill resolves before the TA check since it affects it.

[Something_Smart]

Did you soft your result on Chara?

[Something_Smart]

I think it's the first one.

[Something_Smart]

There's so little Town power in this game, which implies Lucy is probably town?

Is there though?

Vig is one confirmed townie. Disloyal roleblocker is... pretty much confirmable in the long term. If the enabler is the last scum alive then they have to take out the roleblocker asap, and if the enabler ever flips then the roleblocker's basically confirmed. The UB is probably half a confirmed townie, off of the chance that they inherit a confirmable role. (And even if they inherit the neighborizer, they still get confirmed to have a neighborizing power which is pretty compelling evidence for being UB.) The neighborizer has investigative power and can guilty scum members if they claim wrong.

Whereas, with the traffic analyst, you add in AT LEAST one confirmed townie, and likely more.

[Something_Smart]

If only there were a fourth role, like an even-night simple neighborizer.

[Something_Smart]

Which, incidentally, is also effectively a vanilla cop.

[Something_Smart]

Your role is basically confirmed if the enabler flips, though. That's two confirmed townies off the bat, and not a lot of power is needed on top of that to be balanced.

[Something_Smart]

it's not really confirmed because day could just be a scum roleblocker

But why do you ever claim disloyal roleblocker as a scum roleblocker? Like, you are effectively cutting off your own ability to use your role, since if you successfully block something you are immediately suspected.

[Something_Smart]

SS do you think I'm likely scum

Yeah, I do. I already leaned you over Alisae, and I think your claim makes for too much town power, and your night actions are convenient, and what you've done with them doesn't make much sense.

[Something_Smart]

don't first time designers love to cram stuff in? Last mafioso is probably stacked with some kind of role.

Depends on the person. And it would have to be a pretty strong role to balance the power if Lucy is town.

[Something_Smart]

So who wants to chat while we wait for Norwee to put SS out of his misery.

Excuse me?

[Something_Smart]

So we just do S_S and if that fails it’s Lucy?

Why rule Alisae out?

[Something_Smart]

Well, one of the three of us is going to have to be ruled out at some point. You and Luca and Day might as well decide on which one today so you can discuss among all three of you.

[Something_Smart]

Why is that case rare? Because you townread Alisae, or because you scumread both me and Lucy?

[Something_Smart]

I mean, my play is pretty passive as either alignment, and Alisae's is pretty active as either alignment. Which parts did you specifically think were active town and not active scum?

[Something_Smart]

I suppose?

I would imagine that they would at least try to be a little subtle about it.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I agree with you that Alisae is less likely to be scum than Lucy, but I don't feel like it's because Alisae has been especially towny. (Reconsidering me today was probably the towniest thing they did, but now they've gone back on it, so it doesn't count for much.)

[Something_Smart]

S_S you're not bad enough at mafia to think I can be scum here and I hate that you have to pretend to be

You mean mechanically, or dayplay-wise?

[Something_Smart]

There's so little Town power in this game, which implies Lucy is probably town?

Is there though?

Vig is one confirmed townie. Disloyal roleblocker is... pretty much confirmable in the long term. If the enabler is the last scum alive then they have to take out the roleblocker asap, and if the enabler ever flips then the roleblocker's basically confirmed. The UB is probably half a confirmed townie, off of the chance that they inherit a confirmable role. (And even if they inherit the neighborizer, they still get confirmed to have a neighborizing power which is pretty compelling evidence for being UB.) The neighborizer has investigative power and can guilty scum members if they claim wrong.

Whereas, with the traffic analyst, you add in AT LEAST one confirmed townie, and likely more.

[Something_Smart]

It seems pretty obvious all other slots want S_S today. So i don’t think you’re getting out of this regardless S_S. Might as well share your final reads if town and tell us who we should eliminate in ElO.

Why should you trust my reads over your own?

[Something_Smart]

Both, S_S

I mean, I'm absolutely bad enough at reads to misread you. My read on you isn't even especially strong, and you haven't done the things that I've correctly townread you for in the past so I don't see why you would expect me to be reading you any differently.

Mechanically, well I made my argument and just re-quoted it. You're welcome to provide a counterargument, but nobody has.

[Something_Smart]

Scum traffic analyst, in all likelihood.

Or just a goon who felt like setting up a fakeclaim?

[Something_Smart]

I'm used to town being pretty stacked

In the mini normal I just won as scum, I was up against a Tracker, a N2,N3 Cop

and

a JK, along with an informed cop enabling miller (scum had a 2 shot vanilla cop and 1-shot RB)

And after the game I was told it was scum-sided lol

That doesn't feel that stacked to me. How do you compare it to this setup?

[Something_Smart]

I guess?

It's not like traffic analyst doesn't make sense in a setup without one.

[Something_Smart]

Well, no role in this setup is as strong as any of {Tracker, N2, N3 Cop, JK}

Disloyal roleblocker is definitely stronger than JK or tracker. Vig is probably stronger than tracker, as well.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, only if you're also town.

[Something_Smart]

S_S are you actually misreading me?

This is sad

And I don't know how to solve

I don't understand what's that sad about it, it's not like I'm a god of scumhunting or anything.

And besides if you're town I'm not the one you need to convince.

[Something_Smart]

you think novice 1 shot vig is stronger than ungated tracker? lol

Tracker is really not good in a 3 scum game. It really only becomes valuable when one scum remains.

[Something_Smart]

If it's not SS it's Luca

now that you know I'm flipping green you still don't trust my opinion on balance?

[Something_Smart]

I mean the N1 and N2 targets can't be useful because then she'd be clearing someone she needs to mis-exe. And the N3 target is completely irrelevant since there was only one scum left.

[Something_Smart]

also SS if u flip town it shouldn't matter cause lucy is the shot here unless lucy wants to force the 1v1 between someone

huh? why would Lucy ever be NK'd over Norwee or Day?

[Something_Smart]

Also shouldn't Lucy's N2 result be a guilty not an inno since the hood gets formed and then the investigation happens?

No, because Ydrasse dies before the investigation happens and dead players cannot legally communicate with anyone.

[Something_Smart]

Well that was rude.

I know. I did it on the off chance that iv wasn't gonna count Day's vote. Sorry :/

[Something_Smart]

S_S, did u believe my softs?

No.

[Something_Smart]

Why would you hurt me on purpose

Considering I only got hammered because Alisae misunderstood what a traffic analyst was, I think it was justified.

[Something_Smart]

Oh also, it was annoying to see people ignoring my setup discussion and not engaging with it when it was mostly genuine. I don't know if the setup was townsided or not, but it certainly felt it. To win I would have had to mis-exe all the available targets except for two (skitter and Menalque), and that would have been except for one if Lucy had gotten any innos.

[Something_Smart]

Why did u kill me then lol?

Because you were never getting executed and I didn't want you blocking a Lucy execution.

And I mean come on, I'm terrified of you

[Something_Smart]

Well it doesn't matter, because she was a PR q.q

Even trying to ignore my experience this game, I think the setup's townsided. Vig is untouchable. TA is good for one clear, probably two. RB gets cleared if scum die fast, and TA gets stronger if they don't. UB basically negates the first PR kill so that scum have to spend all their time shooting PR's or be overrun by them (and a single rolecop shot is not enough to ensure that they can do that).

[Something_Smart]

PR's didn't do that much, they only took away likely executions on Day, Norwee, and Lucy.

[Something_Smart]

Yes it's sarcasm lol

PR's killed every mis-execution we were hoping to get except for PP (and even that one was a struggle).

[Something_Smart]

p sure scum win this if they dont bus fark d2.

fark had norwee, luca, day hardpocketed and thats enough to control thread forever.

Day voted Fark...

[Something_Smart]

Sure, but that could have happened anyway.

I think Fark goes down D2 or D3 in all worlds and if I don't bus then I have no recourse at all against PoE.

Plus, if Ali hadn't pulled the trick, then Fark might not have died right away despite the bus.

[Something_Smart]

What momentum? I have zero momentum as either alignment.

[Something_Smart]

Whereas skitter and Menalque were gaining momentum, rather quickly. I think it's likely that they would have changed the mind of one of those people before consensus was reached on anyone else.

[Something_Smart]

luca got more town cred off hard defending fark than you did bussing him.

He did? I don't think people townread him more after Fark flipped than they did before it.

[Something_Smart]

yea sometimes really believing in a wrong read looks better than a bad progression on a flip.

Sure but sitting there and doing nothing while my buddy gets wagoned looks even worse, especially since I've done that in front of the same people before

[Something_Smart]

I just guessed SS was scum based off of years of experience where there's always that 1 guy on the scumteam that can't keep up

lolwut

[Something_Smart]

okay but I was also like myself in, like, half of my towngames

[Something_Smart]

Hi mastina!

I think the consensus is that it was a decent bit townsided. The way the game played out, the RB enabler flipping basically cleared the RB on the basis that a scum RB would not claim disloyal, which is an interaction that was probably pretty hard to see coming. But even without that, we had the potential for 3-4 clears in the vig, the UB inheriting the vig, the TA, and the TA check (though she happened to not get any innos, but she did get a guilty).