Mini Normal 2303 [Postgame!!!!]

[fireisredsir]

did you know if you take the starting letters of the words in fireisredsir and add a t for town it spells

first!!

VOTE: ausuka

[fireisredsir]

aw

[fireisredsir]

first i don't get the first post by a few seconds and then i get bullied for my name......... so sad..........

[fireisredsir]

hi i just got some good news so

VOTE: iamveryhappy

[fireisredsir]

Also what’s up Fire. If memory serves me right I think we played a game together right?

chromavalon, very briefly

[fireisredsir]

Fire (the individual) is giving me town vibes

what made you decide to say this now?

[fireisredsir]

it is an expression of my happiness vote

but also maybe what are you a cop

[fireisredsir]

Fire (the individual) is giving me town vibes

what made you decide to say this now?

for the sake of gameplay related content and not like fire (the

substance

experience) related content. What made you decided to ask this question?

i was wondering why you said it in your 8th post when i hadn't posted anything since before your 1st post

[fireisredsir]

it is an expression of my happiness vote

but also maybe what are you a cop

i can't believe you would rolefish me like this

legally if you ask a cop if they're a cop they have to tell you otherwise it's entrapment

[fireisredsir]

hu tao has posted a total of one word

i feel like the vote is kinda self explanatory

one might say it is not elaboratable

[fireisredsir]

"defensive" is a bit of a weird read of that post

[fireisredsir]

"defensive" is a bit of a weird read of that post

I literally put that I didn't read the yellow text lastpage and I still get a post like "oh nyoo your thing has a logical flaw

you seem a little on edge

[fireisredsir]

i didn't even have to ask!

[fireisredsir]

at first i thought iamveryhappy was like 100% jokes but now im pretty sure he's on the exact opposite end of the scale and is taking everything 100% seriously

the consistency of it actually makes me feel a little better about him, in a way?

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: cook

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: cook

And what brings you to the wagon?

vibes

[fireisredsir]

I was very cautious of fire making what looked like a push on him because his posts don't make sense (which I broadly agree with but is not scummy) but since fire stopped doing it before anyone called it out I am less worried now

hmmm

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: HighPrincessErinys

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: HighPrincessErinys

You're REALLY confusing me now.

i thought the unvote was a lil performance and so was the being Very Concerned about how not pro-town the wagon was

wagons provoke reactions and responses, from the person wagoned and from others, and that moves the game forward and allows people to be more readable. cook wasn't going to get flipped, i think you know that, so why wasn't the wagon pro-town?

[fireisredsir]

performative*

[fireisredsir]

but let's get the ball going on questions.

@fireisredsir

, for 20 posts you've put out very little content. what are your thoughts on the wagon?

i thought your initial reaction to there being votes on you felt off, especially because 2 of them came before you ever posted (and invisibility's seemed like mostly a joke?) so it was weird to call it a wagon that had anything to do with you. your posting seemed a little anxious so i wanted to vote there mostly to pressure a little more and see what the response was

i felt like ausuka was seeing the same things (she poked at it a little earlier, and then joined with a vote and more explanation a little after), so i was happy to see the wagon grow there. really i think mine and hers are the only two meaningful votes, and there's not a lot of point in discussing the rvs ones or considering them as part of a wagon

i didn't really like the immediate response in 139 and 141, felt like more of the kind of anxious not sure how to handle being wagoned type energy that i think is more likely to come from scum

i also kinda think 183 is lacking in critical thinking or in approaching the situation with a real attempt to solve, because there's no reason to include katykim's vote in the group since again, it came before you ever posted

[fireisredsir]

hu tao has posted a total of one word

i feel like the vote is kinda self explanatory

one might say it is not elaboratable

Interesting. So on this site saying hello is scummy and saying a bunch of cringe fake things (not directed at you) in the beginning of the game for 10 pages is towny. I will note this.

i don't think it's particularly scummy

my comment was about finding it strange that italiano seemed to be making a show of not asking ausuka to elaborate, when it seemed to me that it would be obvious what she was thinking

[fireisredsir]

There's nothing protown about rushing a wagon to E-2 within like 4 hours of the game starting.

I think early wagons are fine, I think e-2 is really not that big of a deal, and I don't think the wagon is 'rushed' - I like the Cook vote

Genuine question, are we all interacting just to have a corpus of information for later days or is there just disagreement from an optimal play perspective on whether an early bandwagon is good or not. It looks to me like Cook was never in any real danger of getting enough votes to be killed and we should all move on.

VOTE: UNVOTE: Cook

hi, welcome! you don't need to type VOTE and UNVOTE, you can just use the tags, there's one for [ unvote ]

what do you mean by "we should all move on"?

[fireisredsir]

@cook 222 - yea that's fair, i think a lot of people don't always handle pressure the smoothest as either alignment. it's why i tend not to put the most weight on it when considering reads (and why i switched my vote to someone that i found more suspicious, in its reaction to the wagon situation), but it's still a useful tool for getting the game moving

[fireisredsir]

There's nothing protown about rushing a wagon to E-2 within like 4 hours of the game starting.

I think early wagons are fine, I think e-2 is really not that big of a deal, and I don't think the wagon is 'rushed' - I like the Cook vote

Genuine question, are we all interacting just to have a corpus of information for later days or is there just disagreement from an optimal play perspective on whether an early bandwagon is good or not. It looks to me like Cook was never in any real danger of getting enough votes to be killed and we should all move on.

VOTE: UNVOTE: Cook

hi, welcome! you don't need to type VOTE and UNVOTE, you can just use the tags, there's one for [ unvote ]

what do you mean by "we should all move on"?

At the time, I basically was trying to say that I didn't think the conversations around the bandwagon votes were that constructive. I've been readingthe older posts some more and I basically realize now the "point" which is that reactions and reasoning and reactions to reactions are the only concrete thing we have to go off of at this point in the game which is why the conversation isn't dying.

yea, our game days last longer than you're probably used to, and most of it is this kind of stuff: pressuring people, analyzing the reactions to it, seeing how people respond to questions and pushes, and debating with each other who is mafia and who we should elim

the reason i asked is that it kinda felt like you were trying to deflect from pressure by saying we should move on, when you were one of the people who was on the wagon (technically)

[fireisredsir]

in honor of your new pfp, it kinda felt like this

[fireisredsir]

your thought process makes sense tho now that you've explained it

[fireisredsir]

feeling town vibes so far from iamveryhappy and black, maybe hu tao

[fireisredsir]

y'all nonvoters should vote imo

SS is excused maybe

but if we have too many people doing that then things get kinda weird and harder to track

[fireisredsir]

I like Ausuka's posts so far and I particularly kind of mind melded with these as I was skimming through

I think wagons are protown and the concern feels overblown to me

There's nothing protown about rushing a wagon to E-2 within like 4 hours of the game starting.

I think early wagons are fine, I think e-2 is really not that big of a deal, and I don't think the wagon is 'rushed' - I like the Cook vote

Please tell this one how these posts make Ausuka seem town. They are pretty generic and can be made by either alignment. This one doesn't believe you have enough to be forming that read here.

A lot of people are sheeping your sentiments on wagons and early wagons but forget that randomly running up town can be severely anti town, especially day ones and especially if claims are forced. It's also a good way for scum to pr hunt. So. Black and Italiano straight up agreeing with you, this one notes it.

if the thoughts are generic and anyone could have come up with them, then why are you framing the people agreeing with them as sheeping? i don't think you can have both

either it's an original insight, and people saw it and decided to follow along, or it's a generic thought that a lot of people would naturally agree with

fwiw i think it's the latter

[fireisredsir]

I think wagons are protown and the concern feels overblown to me

There's nothing protown about rushing a wagon to E-2 within like 4 hours of the game starting.

I think early wagons are fine, I think e-2 is really not that big of a deal, and I don't think the wagon is 'rushed' - I like the Cook vote

This

And you're also sheeping Ausuka posts that can be NAI and are generic throwaway statememts.

oh. here you even say both at the same time

yea i don't really get how those ideas work together for you

[fireisredsir]

feeling town vibes so far from iamveryhappy and black, maybe hu tao

I have done nothing so far. So why?

your attitude seems unconcerned with feeling any pressure to do anything or look a certain way

which i find tends to be +town

[fireisredsir]

why is invis defending italiano so badly

where do you see that?

[fireisredsir]

This one has little time for semantics. Basically, agreeing with generic points or using them as the basis for a townread can be sheeping. Black felt more analytic. Italiano was a headnodder.

If Ausuka is town and Italiano scum it is sheeping of generic points to pocket.

Your assertion is flawed in its dualistic exclusionism. Agreement with generic statements is still agreement, this one never said it is alignment indicative but the fact of the matter is it happened.

Furthermore, just because a statement is generic does not mean that it is valid. The underlying issue here is the cook wagon yet you exclude this fact to focus only on whether it is valid for this one to note patterns that might lead to readforming.


This one is curious why you are saying this at all. While you don't feel scummy this is a sidetrack.

that thought process makes a lot more sense to me, especially saying that italiano felt like generic agreement in order to pocket

i was asking about it bc it didn't make sense to me and i wanted to see if it was a real thought you had with internal consistency or if it was you looking for easy reasons to shade people without critically thinking about them

it now feels more like a real thought to me so ty for clarifying. semantics matter, this is a game of words

[fireisredsir]

i don't love the "no the real issue is the cook wagon not my response to it!! focus on that!" tho, when actually i think the responses to it are a lot more interesting in terms of reading people than the wagon itself, but eh

it's a little deflect-y but it might just be an attitude thing i remember sort of similar vibes from hollow knight

[fireisredsir]

I think it's very unlikely Italiano's sentiment was meant to pocket me - it's a really common view to think early wagons are anti-town, so I don't think the default assumption should be that there's bad motives there, and anyway Italiano commented on liking wagons before the whole argument really took off

i think its a reasonable thought for asri to have

he's seemed kinda buddying to me at times

[fireisredsir]

imo t3 is the scummiest of the low posters

that said im not sure if its just that my main experience with t3 is playing scum with him when he didn't really do anything

[fireisredsir]

what was your motivation behind doing that, italiano? i thought it was just a joke but 394 makes it sound like there was more behind it. what was your thought process?

[fireisredsir]

Invis is my mason buddy. Stop playing Invis.

Is this a real claim? Why would you even claim?

No, not a real claim.

I figured, but it was just a really confusing thing to do. I am gaining confidence that iamveryhappy is scum though. Their unwillingness to really interact with anyone except for Italiano is just bothering me.

do you have a read on italiano yourself?

[fireisredsir]

I don't believe this cclaim yet as buddying scum can claim masons and go haha I'm cowonftown
but no
I'm the only cowonftpwn

Italiano and Invisibility are absolutely real masons. Invisibility softed this earlier by repeatedly insisting Italiano is scum. I will not hear any slander of this claim

this is pretty clearly understanding the claim isn't real

VOTE: ItalianoVD

If you're just a vanilla then say so.

this feels like, not believing the claim exactly, but treating it as if it was meant to be taken seriously

[fireisredsir]

@asri, "took seriously" is different than "believed to be real"

i agree tho that i don't think whether you took it seriously or not is very relevant to your alignment

i am curious what makes you now say that italiano has a high chance to be town, though

[fireisredsir]

I can confirm I wasn't taking the mason claim seriously. Tbh I thought it was just NAI and I'd like to move on from it.

On the subject of pocketing, does anyone think the cook "I want ausuka to be town for better scumhunting" thing sounds like pocketing with the context we don't know each other

Ideally I'd start pushing someone other than cook as well but I don't think there's an obvious target for that. I'd like to hear KKFC comment more on people who are not happy; my read on happy is that he is like majorly limbaity.

That does stick out as weird to me. Another thing about Cook I found weird was that the pressure is more or less off Cook, and yet Cook is behaving similarly to how she was before when there was a wagon on her. If Cook is town that reacts badly to pressure, when there is no pressure on her then she should return to normal, no? It seems to me that Cook is scum that is uncomfortable with being wagoned again, so she is treading carefully.

i actually kinda like this post a lot

it's a pretty good point but also i just like the thought process

[fireisredsir]

I'm liking Ausuka's posts a little less than I was this weekend. I'm not sure what it is...I think it's the tone? For whatever reason I can't help but read her posts like they're coming from a guilty conscience

It's not like she's doing anything all that scummy. I think she defends herself a lot and seems concerned with people scum reading her, but I can't really scumread that because I do that a lot as town

I think scum are likely to approach this game in the way Ausuka has. Decent activity, obvious signs of solving, etc

I'm ok leaving this slot around for later because I think I still townread her, but I'm wary here

i don't think ausuka has been very defensive this game and i also don't think that's a scumtell for her at all

i actually kinda felt the opposite, like she felt a little... im not sure how to describe it. like there's a slight wall up, or like she's viewing things from above rather than diving in. this isn't saying anything about her quantity of content but more just the manner in which she's engaging

i think it's believable that this could be coming from other places than alignment so im not reading too much into it yet but i don't townread her in the way that i have in other games ive played with town her, where it felt really easy for me to see the thought and the process and the town energy behind the posts

so idk also wary i guess, but for different reasons

[fireisredsir]

seems a little early for that

[fireisredsir]

Why are people scumreading HPE? I'm not seeing it

ill be back in 30 mins or so and i can explain then, it takes some gathering of quotes

short of it is that i don't believe its reaction to the cook wagon was genuine tho

[fireisredsir]

ok so my issue with HPE came initially from the response to the cook wagon, and i wanted to see how it responded to a vote on itself when it was being so reactionary in a way that to me felt overexaggerated and performative

the response didn't really give me much, and i am not very familiar with the player aside from some loose reading of the team mafia game ausuka referenced, so i went to read some town games to get a feel for how it thinks

and in micro 1074 the way it approached the early game seemed really disconnected from the way it did here

Spoiler: from another game

VOTE: KittyTacky
Consider this RVS 2: The Squeakquel more than anything, but this one wants to say that after giving it a little thought, isn't it kind of... good?? To get a wagon going?? Pressuring a slot that we literally know nothing about is good, it thinks.

VOTE: KittyTacky
Consider this RVS 2: The Squeakquel more than anything, but this one wants to say that after giving it a little thought, isn't it kind of... good?? To get a wagon going?? Pressuring a slot that we literally know nothing about is good, it thinks.

Why kitty though

idk something possessed me.

kawaii hasn't posted at all.
@kawaii - if you're reading this, your thoughts on the game so far would be appreciated.

I actually don't like this post

This one doesn't particularly see anything wrong with it at this point of the game when we're still trying to get activity going. If this was a midgame "hey this person isn't talking thats sus" it'd be a different story, but getting people engaged is good rn.

and highprincessemerys is pinging me the wrong way

And what makes you say that?

Leaving aside the fact that it's a random number generator and I did it as a joke, I think checking a moderate townread is good.

Yeah, we still have zilch info for like two and a half RL days in. Anything to advance gamestate is good.

On that note, this one would like to ask everyone who their current top town and scum reads are. Obviously when we're only like 80 posts in these won't be very solid reads, but it still wants to hear everyone's thoughts right now. For this one it's probably Abne and... this one doesn't really scumread anyone at this point esp since it doesn't personally feel/see anything with that one Abne post, but it'd like more posts from Arko and NK15.

Would vote Kowah now but this one is a bit sketched out by the possibility of a quickwagon since it'll be E-2 when right now it moreso wants info rather than an elimination.

e-2 doesn't really risk a quickhammer imo.

You're probably right. This one will think on a vote or not while it does some other stuff.

VOTE: Kowahbunga

Would vote Kowah now but this one is a bit sketched out by the possibility of a quickwagon since it'll be E-2 when right now it moreso wants info rather than an elimination.

e-2 doesn't really risk a quickhammer imo.

You're probably right. This one will think on a vote or not while it does some other stuff.

VOTE: Kowahbunga

This looks scummy to me because they wanted to act like they wanted to get on my wagon, but gave a reason why they weren't, then someone convinces them to put that vote down. So are they scumreading me or not? If they were, would they need to be convinced to vote me? Like I would probably understand a well thought out and good argument being presented to them and they have a moment of clarity and vote. But the literal reason provided is "don't worry about a quickhammer" "oh okay, vote" wtf?

You're somewhat disregarding the actual length of time between the post that says "hmm lemme think about it" and the vote, as well as the fact this one didn't have qualms about a vote on you in general, but rather qualms about you up and dying early as hell, even on a slow game like this. You're at E-1 now, so it thinks that's a somewhat reasonable fear, but at the very least an overzealous hammer by someone now would give something to look into during D2. That being said, it doesn't feel like risking said overzealous hammer in the first place before you even can claim. UNVOTE: Kowahbunga

there's initial voting and pressuring people for the sake of getting the game moving rather than for suspicion (and how wagoning people to get others engaged is a good thing), then there's some complaining about how nothing is happening and that the gamestate needs to be advanced

all of this feels like a pretty different mindset already, i would expect the person who makes these posts to understand the concept of a pressure wagon and not respond to one by saying "there is nothing pro town about this"

but then there's also an interesting little moment where HPE doesn't want to vote a player bc it would put them on E-2 too early. another player says "that isn't such a big deal", and then after some thinking, HPE concedes the point and places the vote

and again when unvoting later the explanation feels more like it understands the usefulness of pressuring people early in order to get the gamestate moving



now, there is a pretty big difference between these two situations, despite the position in terms of post number being pretty similar. in the previous game, the E-2 vote came after 4 irl days, and the game was moving pretty slow and stalling a bit. here it was only a few hours in, so i get how that would be different

there is also some of that similar hesitancy to vote people due to risk, but still, the reaction in this game seems disproportionate given how it acted in the other game, and that kinda makes me think that it was playing up and overexaggerating something that it knows it does care about as town. i just think it pushed it a little past the point where the mindset feels real to me

[fireisredsir]

tbh thats the kind of post i probably would make as scum bc it honestly kind of is just posting Content for the sake of Content

as town my natural instinct in situations like this where i find the gamestate kinda boring and i find a lot of the players hard to understand and therefore hard to sort though, is to just be like "meh im bored hopefully something happens soon"

but i have learned that doing that, shockingly, does not actually do anything to make the game less boring and doesn't really make winning easier

so sometimes its worth just putting my thoughts out there even if i don't really have a solid conclusion or feel that strongly about it bc then it hopefully gets things moving

[fireisredsir]

im not sure if being aware that you were overreacting after already having been called out for overreacting really changes a lot for me tbh

[fireisredsir]

I noticed that Cook used to be voting for HPE and now is voting for Italiano. Could someone help me find where her opinion of HPE changed?

cook's vote on HPE was in rvs, and later she said that she found HPE confusing and couldn't really get a read on it

so im not sure it was ever a real vote

[fireisredsir]

on iamveryhappy, i don't really think "seems like nonsense" is something that ive found success with as a metric for finding scum

i think i do struggle to read people who don't make sense to me tbh. if i can't follow their thought process then i don't really know how to tell if they're making it up or not

[fireisredsir]

i do remember when i first experienced frogsterking he was just jumping all over the place saying things that didn't really make sense or seem like town could genuinely believe them but his eagerness and energy and confidence made people write him off as town since he's always kinda like that

he did end up being scum

i think it's a hard thing to maintain convincingly over the course of the game tho so maybe better treated as a wait and see what happens

[fireisredsir]

maybe not zany wacky but kinda... jumpy i guess? hitting conclusions really quickly and taking others' joking posts as ultra serious matters

i thought at first his early posts were like "lol so random!!" shitposts when he was talking about how the vc was slipping the scumteam but i think he actually was being serious

[fireisredsir]

maybe not zany wacky but kinda... jumpy i guess? hitting conclusions really quickly and taking others' joking posts as ultra serious matters

i thought at first his early posts were like "lol so random!!" shitposts when he was talking about how the vc was slipping the scumteam but i think he actually was being serious

yellow text can go die, I told you that I couldn't read yellow text so many times, when it was orange I finally noticed host wasn't spewing info

i think this response is pretty towny tho

if he was scum making up ridiculous things to be overconfident about and bluster his way through the game then i don't think he'd be offended at me bringing up his mistake

there's a sort of embarrassed energy here that feels real to me and makes me believe that he really did think the mod was slipping info in the vcs and now realizes that was kinda silly

if he was scum he would have known it was silly all along

[fireisredsir]

i was reminded of frogsterking bc in that game i mentioned there was a v similar situation where early on he started going off about how the game being delayed for a replacement meant that slot must be a scum power role

i don't think he ever displayed this sort of self-consciousness when called out on that though, he mostly just doubled down or moved on

[fireisredsir]

nah i was just looking at it again, it was a pregame thing where a player's name was inappropriate or something and so they had the player make a new account and delayed the gamestart for it

if you're curious:

viewtopic.php?t=88987

[fireisredsir]

alr
If you were to case me right now, at this moment, what would you case me for?

i don't think i would scumcase you if that's what you're asking

if you're asking whether i would towncase you or scumcase you, i lean town, and i think the point that is the most meaningful to me is the one i just made, bc thats a place where i feel like i can actually understand what you're thinking, where tbh i usually can't

[fireisredsir]

alr
If you were to case me right now, at this moment, what would you case me for?

i don't think i would scumcase you if that's what you're asking

if you're asking whether i would towncase you or scumcase you, i lean town, and i think the point that is the most meaningful to me is the one i just made, bc thats a place where i feel like i can actually understand what you're thinking, where tbh i usually can't

Let me word my question better. If you had to give a scumcase on me no matter how much you townread me, what would you scumcase me for?

i think the thing that has given me the most pause is that you seem pretty self-aware of your own inconsistency/whatever you want to call it, and it feels like you can kind of turn it off and on at will

if it was something that was just always present then it's easier to believe that's just how you are

but then there's like times of clarity and it makes me wonder what the point of the other times are

[fireisredsir]

I could also vote for iamveryhappy and probably Princess, but I just don’t think scum would be that clumsy around a wagon the way Princess was. I could be wrong about that though.

can you elaborate on this

[fireisredsir]

also ausuka i think i was wrong about you. throwing you in the townbucket for today.

what changed your mind?

[fireisredsir]

ill let cook respond but that isn't how i interpreted that post

[fireisredsir]

that is what i thought you meant

i do agree with invisible tho that retracting it was kinda obviously his only option (and regardless of alignment he knew that was going to be the end result when he said it) so im not sure how it would save face

i think it's a weird thing to do in general but taking it back seems like it was always going to happen, no?

[fireisredsir]

I'm trying to ask about your read on Italiano

Like, do you think he expects invisibility to claim masons with him? After invisibility calls him scum so strongly

Is there more to the mason claim being scummy?

respectively:
- ask about it then, or point to a place when you asked about it please
- no, no i don't
-

why in the goddamn would town fakeclaim.

if there is no logical reason for it, then there you go. that's why i scumread italiano

retracted it, after you disproved it

again, what else would Italiano do in this situation? Seems kinda obvious that Italiano would retract the claim after it was disproven cuz otherwise he would be megadead. I don't know how it gains towncred other than being the choice that doesn't get him dead immediately and so I don't see why that was even worth mentioning

pedit: yes what Fire said

i'm just bamboozled why you would fakeclaim masons with someone who isn't even your scumpartner unless you're, say

trying to deliberately distance

but i don't think that's what's happening here

I mean, I am too, but

why is your conclusion from it that it's scummy for italiano

thank you!!

I think most players would interpret it as a joke because no shit they are not masons

I am trying to understand why you are approaching this from the angle it was intended to be taken seriously.

perhaps i am bad at reading that kind of thing and it doesn't go well in terms of playing mafia

Like if it makes no sense for town to do and it makes no sense for scum to do according to you how is that not NAI

general feel on italiano??

i don't know. i should be thinking it's nai.

i actually kinda like this from cook

not necessarily in terms of like, process. bc ideally she wouldn't need so much prodding to realize that if she doesn't think it makes sense as either alignment then it's probably more on the side of nai (altho side note i disagree with the premise from ausuka. scum sometimes do things that make no sense intentionally. town have no reason to. i think that makes it slightly on the scum side of ai)

but anyway i feel like i can see this idea dawning on cook as the conversation progresses and i believe that is happening

and i don't really like how ausuka just left things be after this last post and didn't seem to acknowledge what looks to me like a pretty open display of town thought process

[fireisredsir]

like does scum cook here really be like "huh. i guess you're right. i didn't think of it that way."

im sure some scum players would but it just feels honest to me here given the context

[fireisredsir]

gotta go for now but this is a reminder to myself that there's a couple other things i wanna talk about from the last few pages

[fireisredsir]

black feels more like town to me here, asri

i def wouldn't recommend worldbuilding off her flip before it even happens that rarely works out in general

[fireisredsir]

okay

[fireisredsir]

i would suggest listening to other people and trying to work with town to solve together but that's kind of a catch 22 if you don't care about listening to suggestions

[fireisredsir]

Alright, here's my IVD ISO

Mambo Italianoooooo

19 - "I am very happy too" ...why? Because you rolled scum? This is NAI but if IVD is scum then this would be funny
#20-#24 are meaningless greetings to other players
27 - IVD asking happy what he wants to talk about. Nothing here
35 - you forgot to include "rolled scum" here btw
More fluffy posts here
88 - this feels like a joke vote on T3, so not much here
89 - I like IVD calling Invis out here because her TR did feel weird and was part of the reason I voted her early. I'm curious to see where this goes because I know that IVD strongly townreads Invis, so this comment must not have made the same scummy impression it did for me
94 - not a big fan of "hope we are both town this game" but it's NAI
97 - asking Ausuka if her vote was serious. Kinda seems like busy work
98 - Invis follows up to #89 by just saying "yes", and IVD just says "I want town vibes." I'm not sure why IVD didn't question Invis' townread further here? I don't like this
102 - tells Ausuka it's too early to ask for elaboration so he wants to let it marinate. Idk what this means? I don't think it's ever too early to ask. You may not get an answer but that's beside the point
107 - IVD speaking for Invis here and giving a reason for her vote
124 - admitting Fire got townread by Invis for almost nothing. I think town!IVD would question this townread more
Invisibility defends IVD in 122 and IVD agrees with her in 128. I'm not liking 128 really. It reads as "yeah, I wouldn't do this as scum"
133 - IVD seems to want to take on happy here
150 - "obviously I wouldn't want it to get pushed through if you're town" ...this feels yucky. Why even say this? Other than that I do agree with this post fundamentally
I also like 213 and 214 regarding the Cook wagon
215 - IVD quotes four people (Invis, Cook, Asri, and HPE) and says that one of them is scum. This feels weird because it's a literal echo of what I said 5 minutes before in 211. This isn't really an original thought
217 - he votes Asri here and says that Invis and HPE are town because of their town. He says "especially Invis". This just feels so pockety considering the upcoming mason thingy. I have an issue with this read because I don't think Invis' tone is townie at all. Obviously we could just be having a difference of opinion here but the read still just feels forced
271 - he votes Asri again here which is weird, but maybe he just forgot he was already voting them? I think I like IVD's thought process here but it's definitely a perspective scum could have
277 - this feels like a busywork question to Cook
362 - unvoting Asri here feels weird. To me it reads as if IVD is backing off of a wagon that didn't gain any traction. But what I don't like is he doesn't seem interested in pursuing his thought process from #215 above. If he thinks there's scum in that 4, why would he then not turn to pressure Cook here?
365 - this is the mason buddy comment. I don't like it
394 - I think I agree with the premise of this post but again, I don't think trusting Invis here out of everyone makes a lot of sense from a town perspective
396 - I actually agree with this
531 - IVD apologizes for not being here in 9 hours? This seems like he's worried about his optics, which isn't necessarily scummy, but it's an observation I've made
567 - I'm not liking this explanation as to why IVD fake masonclaimed. "An overexaggerated way of saying I really townread them." Yeah, I'm not really buying this. I actually like the Cook vote here though


~~~

tl;dr - I was kinda hoping to get a better idea of where I stand with this slot. I feel it in my gut that I'm scumreading him though because I found myself thinking a lot of this ISO comes from a malicious perspective as I was reading through it

I think I'm ok pressuring here right now

VOTE: ItalianoVD

ok first off i wanted to bring this post back up bc i think it was pretty good

an iso like this is one of the easiest things to fake as scum imo so i usually don't read much into them, and a lot of these points don't mean much for me, but a few of the points made me feel like black was thinking about things on a deeper level

specifically, the points about how italiano was taking a surface level approach to a lot of things and not really digging deeper. there's a lot of lack of follow through on things, especially when it comes to digging in to why people are townreading things, and not really questioning things in a way that i would expect town to do

that's something that i had noticed but hadn't really put into words, and to me when that sort of things happens its a pretty good sign that the person making the point is town

tracking whether he's actually sticking to his idea about there being scum in that group of 4 or abandoning it i think additionally shows town analysis from black

i also thought it was a little strange the way that pressure on italiano seemed to die down and pressure on black seemed to build up shortly after. votes didn't change much, but if you look at the state of the thread and what people are talking about, i think it definitely did

aside from black's post, i also just think italiano has been approaching the game with what feels like more of a scum mindset. the goals seem to be focused on thread presence, making connections with people, and just being visible, moreso than hunting scum and trying to solve the game

so i want to bring this back

VOTE: italiano

[fireisredsir]

Well I'm pretty good at townreading players and I trust in it a heck of a lot more than my scumreading ability. It helps me solve games more than scumreading people ever could. I actually get asked in every game I play why I so easily townread slots. Experience will do that, what else can I say?

This makes sense. I guess I'm confused what made you trust Invis so much. Was it really that you two had a fun moment together early in the game? To me that just doesn't seem like a natural reason to townlock someone

The “why did Firebringer get a townread” was nonserious and Invis’ response was also nonserious (candybargate, I like that btw lol), so I was like well dang this person gets it. And as I previously mentioned I haven’t seen scum be able to fake that very well. On the flip side had Invis been scum, I think my initial playful “Fire is town” would’ve been handled a bit differently and had I saw that I would’ve handled it differently.

the response to what seemed like a serious read with a nonserious question is i think the issue here tho

i would expect town to be digging into the read and trying to figure out if it's real and not just vibe check and then locktown them off that. it makes it feel like you care more about forming connections than about critically figuring out whether other people's takes on the game make sense and come from town or scum

also im not firebringer

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: italiano

This one admits you were right, it was too early to have you as hard town.

im pretty sure scum in this position are gonna be the ones hard encouraging you and baiting you to continue your tunnel

[fireisredsir]

i think black also looked pretty towny to me in the exchange with ausuka

felt like she was genuinely trying to sort, giving ausuka room to make her points and conceding them when valid, but then still digging back in and questioning things when ausuka kinda backed off in a way that seemed inconsistent

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: italiano

This one admits you were right, it was too early to have you as hard town.

im pretty sure scum in this position are gonna be the ones hard encouraging you and baiting you to continue your tunnel

Right now you're either scum or trying to help them. Either way this one see no value in you, Black's reads are scum reads and neither you nor Black will change this narrative by attacking the player and not the case.

Black is obviously backed into a corner.

This one will see what your agenda is by studying earlier posts. Your vote on Italiano for one would be a clumsy move from you as scum but under certain specific circumstances warranted. Furthermore the above narrative reeks like you being informed about someone's alignment at least.

black is one of my stronger townreads rn (along with you!) and i think it is extremely bad news for the game if one of my strongest townreads is tunneled on another one

i also don't think your reasons for finding black scum are very good at all

[fireisredsir]

i would hope people are capable of more nuanced reading of the game than that would imply

[fireisredsir]

i was gonna say my reads didn't change a ton after that mess but i guess i was considering trying to figure out if asri is ever anything like this as scum. i did not actually attempt to figure out if they are. but i did think about it

so maybe i lost a little faith in that read. still pretty sure they're town though

black still town imo, she felt the most like she was having the reactions that i was

ausuka can have a little crumb of a townread as a birthday treat i guess

happy and cook posting were both a little hmm for me so they lost a little of their townleans

HPE meh. will leave alone for now

idr anyone else who was involved sorry if you were forgettable

still want to lim italiano most, also didn't really like his latest "we're not gonna policy asri!!" and then disappearance

[fireisredsir]

Making a document to organize my thoughts more after dinner. Will provide input on what I think is going on later tonight.

I will just say now though, this shit is crazy and I feel like Charlie from IASIP when he's in the mailroom.

interested in seeing the follow up to this

[fireisredsir]

idk if i agree with all of katy's analysis but i do agree with the conclusion

i think more importantly i feel like i can see what he's thinking when he talks about being lost/confused and i feel like i can track how he's absorbing things in the game. and also importantly, i don't get the sense that he's leaning on that feeling as a reason for not solving the game, he still is attempting to

i was a little worried about the singular focus earlier but i think i could see that coming from town who just is overwhelmed by the game as a whole

i also sort of think that the lost vibes wouldn't be quite the same if he was scum? like he feels pretty on his own and not like he has anyone supporting or helping him

[fireisredsir]

hu tao do you have any reads

[fireisredsir]

idk if i agree with all of katy's analysis but i do agree with the conclusion

i think more importantly i feel like i can see what he's thinking when he talks about being lost/confused and i feel like i can track how he's absorbing things in the game. and also importantly, i don't get the sense that he's leaning on that feeling as a reason for not solving the game, he still is attempting to

i was a little worried about the singular focus earlier but i think i could see that coming from town who just is overwhelmed by the game as a whole

i also sort of think that the lost vibes wouldn't be quite the same if he was scum? like he feels pretty on his own and not like he has anyone supporting or helping him

I was having some of these exact thoughts. I think the lost/confusion feels genuine

Can you give me your current thoughts on Ausuka when you get a chance?

ausuka idk im kind of okay with leaving alone for now and seeing how things develop

i don't particularly like, actively scumread her but i think the fact that im not getting a townread yet is notable enough that it makes me kind of more concerned than i otherwise would be. specifically bc i think i have been able to find ausuka town fairly quickly most of the times that ive seen her town game either from spec or when i was in the game

there's been a couple things with the cook push that i didn't like, and in general i think there's slightly too many places where it feels like she's pushing someone for being wrong rather than going off whether that really makes them scum or not. that's something that always stands out to me when trying to sort players who are good at a certain variety of scumplay, bc often they have a tendency to focus on correctness and being clean

just as far as vibes i think they've been neutral and... careful, i guess. i talked about this earlier and i think i mostly feel the same. i don't really want to scumread off that bc i as i said i could believe it being unrelated to alignment. but it is still noticeable. the exception i think would be that i felt like her vibes and reactions during the asri debacle felt towny to me, so that was i guess the main moment so far of "oh okay maybe she is town"

so yeah idk not exactly a strong conclusion lol, if i were to pick a place for her it would be somewhere around null or slightly on the scum side of null

[fireisredsir]

hu tao do you have any reads

This is phrased on a way that I think is scummy. So right this second I would say you're scummy

cool thats one

do you have any more

[fireisredsir]

specifically on the vibes thing, i think vibes aren't the right word really, its more that i feel best about being able to sort people when i feel like i can see into their brain and understand their thought process and why they're saying the things they're saying

it's why i have trouble reading a lot of people in this game bc they don't make sense to me lol

but anyway, that moment i talked about was when i did feel like i could see into ausuka's brain for a moment. but it still worries me that for most of the rest of the posts i don't feel like i can and it feels like she has a bit of a guard up

[fireisredsir]

idk why the same mindset would apply to different players

that line wasn't about either ausuka or italiano it was an aside about the game as a whole

[fireisredsir]

Like if you are this unsure about Ausuka why have you not engaged with them at all?

i don't always find engagement to be the easiest way to sort people

with ausuka

[fireisredsir]

i hit submit early

but i was gonna say that i thought it would be more useful to wait and watch and see how things developed

i have found lately that with people i know well (not all i guess, but some) im actually generally better at reading them if i am more disconnected from them, like when reading from spec or something

[fireisredsir]

i think not engaging doesn't mean not interested in solving

ausuka is probably the slot in this game that ive put the most time into thinking about her alignment, i just haven't really put that into posts prior to this

[fireisredsir]

i have found lately that with people i know well (not all i guess, but some) im actually generally better at reading them if i am more disconnected from them, like when reading from spec or something

So my observation is right that you've been kind of disconnected from here. I want to believe you that this is your way of trying to solve her, but I hope you understand that this kinda sets you up to be a likely partner if she flips scum

i guess thats fair but i think if we were scum together it would be a lot more fun to do theatre instead of like staring with narrowed eyes at each other from across the room and not talking

idk where that gets us exactly

[fireisredsir]

i am aware of my vulnerability to getting pocketed especially by nice people and so i tend to be more wary around giving them an opportunity to do so

i think i also am just honestly kind of bad at correctly reading most people off engaging with them on a large scale. i think I have decent like chat maf live interaction style reads, but when it comes to me pushing a scumread and like casing them or something, as soon as they respond in a reasonable way my brain just instinctively is like "ok nope nevermind they're town"

so especially if im not confident on a read then i think if anything its counterproductive for me to push on it and i end up with a false sense of security

[fireisredsir]

i am aware of my vulnerability to getting pocketed especially by nice people and so i tend to be more wary around giving them an opportunity to do so

Are you saying you think Ausuka might be trying to pocket you? What posts give you that vibe?

no not at all

i was just kinda musing in general about my process of sorting people and why i sometimes prefer to watch rather than engage

since i hadn't really actively thought about it that much before, and i was thinking about it since you brought it up

i def do not think ausuka has done anything to pocket me this game lol, my point was that if we did engage and talked more then if she's scum it would give her more of an opportunity to try to do so

[fireisredsir]

she wouldn't succeed tho i am unpocketable

[fireisredsir]

:<

[fireisredsir]

i def do not think ausuka has done anything to pocket me this game lol, my point was that if we did engage and talked more then if she's scum it would give her more of an opportunity to try to do so

I feel like this type of engagement would help you sort her. If you think she might try to pocket you as scum then giving her the opportunity to try it seems like a decent trap if you ask me

i mean maybe yeah idk i just haven't wanted to do it yet shrug

[fireisredsir]

imo t3 is the scummiest of the low posters

that said im not sure if its just that my main experience with t3 is playing scum with him when he didn't really do anything

How do you feel about T3 now?

he had a couple points that i thought were insightful and i also thought his vote on you felt independently minded in a way that seemed towny

the original read was just a vibes take i don't think he'd really posted much of anything at the time

[fireisredsir]

Because I'm mafia and therefore I had to call it an interaction with cook. It was very important that I did that. Same reason why I read the thread before posting about an hour ago

Ah the classic cheeky "welp you got me" defense. Cool. Good talk

i don't really understand the point you were making either tbh or why that is something scummy

[fireisredsir]

If you really are town then him casting shade on you doesn't seem like a good reason to townread him at all

I wonder when fire's going to come in and call you scum for saying this. I can't wait

what

[fireisredsir]

i think ausuka was the one making the point that she didn't really know who could be scum if cook was town

i guess black is saying that the conditional tr on me was made up in order to support that point when questioned on it?

[fireisredsir]

so its the opposite, she was saying she didn't have places to look

[fireisredsir]

i didn't say you're scum

[fireisredsir]

i also don't really think the situations are the same but i don't think black's point is very compelling either and i didn't particularly like it

i guess they're similar in the sense of, it feels like pushing a bit far on a contradiction or something like that without thinking about why that's a scummy thing

[fireisredsir]

obviously you've generally presented cases for why people are scum i was just saying that there are specific places where a couple of times the things you were pushing people for drew my attention bc they felt like things that it wasn't clear why scum was more likely to do them even if they were technically inconsistent or wrong

it's not black or white im not saying that all of your posting is like that or that you're 100% scum it's just something that has stood out to me

[fireisredsir]

i don't really like the framing it as "you didn't commit to the read" tho

[fireisredsir]

hm

[fireisredsir]

black im going to feel very dumb if this whole time we've been having this discussion about how im vulnerable to being pocketed, you're sitting there laughing bc you have long ago successfully pocketed me

i don't THINK thats what's happened

but

hm

[fireisredsir]

i don't really like the framing it as "you didn't commit to the read" tho

Shrug I mean i do feel like all your commentary on me is "ausuka is scum for x,y,z but also idk maybe shes town" - it's not really a read which is explained with a mixture of towny and scummy aspects. I don't think the way I describe the read is wrong, unless I'm brainfarting my memory here.

i guess that's fair

there is like a default level of towniness to your posting in general imo and my point was more that there's things that make me squint at them and say "hm this could come from a scumsuka"

and there's relatively few things that make me really feel you've exceeded the normal standard of towniness that i expect you're capable of producing as either alignment

that doesn't mean there's nothing towny about you in an objective sense tho there's just not a lot so far that exceeds the bar that i mentally have for your posting

maybe that's unfair but idk thats how it is

[fireisredsir]

black im going to feel very dumb if this whole time we've been having this discussion about how im vulnerable to being pocketed, you're sitting there laughing bc you have long ago successfully pocketed me

i don't THINK thats what's happened

but

hm

I don't think being suspicious of someone is part of the pocketing strategy is it? I think it's good that you're thinking about this but I feel like we're just on the same wavelength with certain things

i think it can be, idk

i was more thinking about earlier, there's been a lot of times in hindsight where you've posted things that could be pocketing (and regardless of your alignment probably did have some impact on how im thinking of you in this game)

that latest post for whatever reason set off alarm bells a little bit in ways that the other ones hadn't and then i looked back and realized there were kind of a lot of them

[fireisredsir]

what was your purpose behind asking about t3?

[fireisredsir]

At the time I had my tin foil hat on and I was wondering if you were avoiding jumping on his wagon because Ausuka was on it. I was going through both of your ISO's at the time and it stood out to me that you thought T3 was scummy but didn't comment on Ausuka's vote

yeah that was only after his first 3 posts i think lol

i didn't feel that strongly about his posts since the vote on you, i could see it both ways

[fireisredsir]

i didn't really ever feel super strongly about HPE being scum i just didn't feel strongly about anyone being scum and so i didn't have anywhere else i especially felt like voting

im not even that sure on italiano i just think he's been the scummiest so far and i thought it was weird how the wagon on him seemed to disappear even tho i didn't think he had done anything towny

i still kinda believe in my heart the meta point thing (the game wasn't a long time ago it was like 3 months ago lol) but idk

its posts since then have been fine i guess

[fireisredsir]

last part was about HPE again i realize that wasn't super clear

[fireisredsir]

do the people voting asri think asri is scum in present moment or are these still about the chaosposting

can we get a check in from y'all

[fireisredsir]

ausuka why did you feeling like i was scumreading you but not really saying it make you suspicious of me

[fireisredsir]

if i were scum who didn't want to push you out of fear of you pushing back i could just... not scumread you

i don't get it

wdym by fake?

[fireisredsir]

hm ok

[fireisredsir]

curious take

That's it?

i mean i haven't been thinking about s_s much this game. been a little occupied defending my slot

when have you been occupied defending yourself in the time since SS started posting?

[fireisredsir]

i don't really think it's that relevant to this game bc she has played scum since then in (what seemed to me, i didnt read the whole thing) a more proactive control-the-game fashion

but i think in the game SS is referring, from what i remember ausuka did do a good job of mostly letting town tear themselves apart and not getting in the way of that. it was a fairly passive style of play but that's what the game called for and it worked out

[fireisredsir]

basically @ss i think your impression is somewhat accurate from that game, but just bc she played that way in that game doesn't mean she can't play a different way as scum

i think the first game of breaking out of "this person doesn't have the scumrange for this" (speaking from my own experience lol) is the easiest but it's also not the best judge of what the player is capable of, bc every time after that there's a higher bar that takes more effort to clear

i think mini normal 2294 is a much better example of her as scum, she played v well and much more proactive and in control of the game from what i saw

[fireisredsir]

i am also still confused about the asri votes and only got one response when i asked last time

[fireisredsir]

idk can we like get some real wagons or something

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: hu tao

[fireisredsir]

cook you are voting asri

can you answer please whether you think asri is scum or if this is a policy vote

and if you do think they're scum then why

and if it is a policy vote can you like not, and vote a scumread instead

[fireisredsir]

feeling town vibes so far from iamveryhappy and black, maybe hu tao

feeling town vibes so far from iamveryhappy and black, maybe hu tao

I have done nothing so far. So why?

your attitude seems unconcerned with feeling any pressure to do anything or look a certain way

which i find tends to be +town

Interesting because my pressure to do anything hasn't changed

you can't coast on that attitude forever

[fireisredsir]

cook you are voting asri

can you answer please whether you think asri is scum or if this is a policy vote

and if you do think they're scum then why

and if it is a policy vote can you like not, and vote a scumread instead

oh yeah no it's policy right now

UNVOTE: asri because fire said so

ok thats half of it

now who do you scumread

[fireisredsir]

i don't think it's scummy to point it out and she actually did hint at it early tbh

i thought both were like. laying it on a little thick and was unsure how to take them

imitial reaction was i didn't like the first one at all and thought it was overly obvious to the point where a real PR wouldn't do it and it was probably just scum. and that was part of why i voted

after seeing how she behaved a bit more i wasn't as sure. kinda think it might be something she would actually do

[fireisredsir]

i think i tend to find softs like that to be way more obvious than they are so idk maybe it wasn't overly obvious

but i also think that if anyone noticed then scum already knew about it bc they're actively looking for that and are more likely to see it

this is why softing (for the purpose of hoping that somehow only town notices and backs off) is kinda dumb

[fireisredsir]

Fire what are your thoughts on Cook/T3

i don't especially want to lim either of them rn

[fireisredsir]

I went through cook's iso again and I don't see the soft

My only thought is the "mafia know something about me" thing, but I assumed that was referring to what she said later about flailing in response to pressure because I don't know how mafia would know her role so soon on d1

that + "they'd be taking about it in their scum pt" was what i was referring to yeah

i thought that was what that was meant to imply even if it doesn't really make any sense (it not making any sense + being too early was what made me think it was more likely to not be a real town reaction to the pressure)

[fireisredsir]

talking

[fireisredsir]

i was feeling lazy zzz but ok fine

[fireisredsir]

cook like ive been saying i thought she was kinda scummy early and then i think once i got a better understanding of who she is as a player, some of the reactions vibed more as real to me. especially the bits where it felt like i could see her thought process developing over a series of posts

there were still a couple places that i didn't like tho, where it feels like she's posting thoughts that aren't real. i really didn't like the bit where she said she was too busy defending herself to think about SS, bc that just.... doesn't make any sense. the SS thoughts were after she had been defending herself, there's no point where she should have been thinking about SS but she couldnt bc she had to defend herself instead. it feeling slightly pre-emptively defensive + fake pinged me a bit. i think there were a couple more of these moments but thats the one that stands out to me

also didn't like how she sat on asri for so long and didn't seem to even remotely care about hunting for scum

i did kinda like her latest long reread post tho so eh

still don't really want to lim bc she probably resolves later but idk could be scum

[fireisredsir]

imo t3 is the scummiest of the low posters

that said im not sure if its just that my main experience with t3 is playing scum with him when he didn't really do anything

I don’t remember being scum with you but it is 12:30 AM

I’m usually a very low poster. Tbh I just find it very hard to generate good content as either alignment. I often spend 20 minutes reading through 5 pages, analyzing them, trying to best understand them, and then I walk away with nothing

for t3 i think we already kinda talked about him, the only new post i think that stood out to me was this one, just bc i don't really know how accurate this is

i haven't seen him play town lately but i had the impression of him being more on the hyperposter side of things if anything. and i felt like he was pretty self-conscious of his posting when he was scum (it was in warrior cats btw) and i think he made some excuses like this at times. thats entirely from memory i could be wrong lol

but i also don't really know why he'd lie about that lol so idk, i will look at meta later

overall i think a little less town than before but not really among my top choices for a lim

i don't quite get the insincere vibes that ausuka mentioned

[fireisredsir]

italiano still feel about the same, but he's VLA and been gone for like 3 days so not really productive to push him at the moment. interested to see what he does when/if he comes back

invisibility i was actually gonna bring up recently but then got distracted. for context i was a little wary of him in rvs but then a bit later i felt like he was having good takes on things and started to feel like he was townier, like he was kinda digging into things in a way that felt like he was trying to solve

but then lately i was thinking that he's fallen off a bit and has felt more passive and reactive. the continued push on cook doesn't really feel that much like he's continuously trying to sort her based on new information, feels like he's kinda already decided

[fireisredsir]

there's something to the consistency of thought process i think

even on the reread there's a lot of places of like, "im confused", "i don't know how to read this", "huh i guess i did react badly here", which to me kind of really tracks with how she appears to be approaching the game in real time as well. it reads more like a townie struggling to feel confident in reading people and not really sure how to approach that, which also checks out with not playing in a while

i would expect scum who is getting pushed mostly for not really scumhunting much to fix that and change approaches. i would expect town who is getting pushed for not really scumhunting to *try* to fix it, but maybe just kinda end up in the same place more or less. and i think the post feels more like the latter to me

like its possible she just doesn't know how to fake scumhunting as scum and this is just her trying her best, but idk, part of me buys it

i did as i was writing this have a moment of thinking that maybe she saw people townreading katy partly off him feeling lost and confused in a towny way, and decided to just lean into that, but im not sure if the requisite self-awareness is there for that

[fireisredsir]

i think the short version is, its the fact that she tried but didn't really have that much as a result of it anyway


not trying at all -> probably scummy

trying and suddenly having confident takes and reads -> more nai, but leaning scummy?

trying, but still not getting much out of it -> a little towny

[fireisredsir]

bruh not cool
hu tao now officially enters the list of who I really wanna lim but slightly after ausuka italiano and asri

where did your ausuka suspicion come from?

[fireisredsir]

SS/Cook definitely has equity as a scum team. It almost feels like SS went out of his way to engage with Cook early in the game. I mentioned earlier that some of these questions feel like fake solving attempts. Obviously I could be wrong about that but I do get those vibes from these questions. They never really went anywhere and I think scum interactions tend to go that way a lot. In my experience as scum I like to engage with my buddy a little without pushing too hard. There's sort of a fear there that you don't want to cast

too

much shade on them early, unless you're doing a bus or something (which doesn't make sense early D1 imo). So it ends up looking like SS/Cook interactions. Showing an interest in solving on the surface but not much there

These are a few of the posts I don't like:

i don’t like it and think its wheels might have been greased by scum somehow

Do you think you're particularly likely to flail when wagoned, and scum know this? Or why do scum want this wagon to be a thing

i don't like that mason claim, ESPECIALLY now that it fell flat.

This is interesting. So you think the mason claim was scummy even ignoring the fact that Invisibility denied it. Does that mean you think it clearly wasn't serious? Or that you think it was serious but a gigabrain scum play for some reason?

not that it makes him townier to me, but that the play was made to try to regain towncred

I don't understand, do you think there's a world where Italiano doesn't walk back that claim? Or what exactly about the walkback looked like a grab for towncred (I'm not really sure what he'd have to be on to think any of that would give him towncred)

i'm not italiano, i didn't claim mason and get shut down

Neither did he, he made an obvious joke/exaggeration and people took it seriously for some reason.

And then there's this subtle defense of Cook that I pointed out that just seems like the softest attempt to diffuse pressure. Like a pin needle poking the tiniest hole in a balloon

I think a Cook lim is more beneficial than SS, and if she flips red then I think it's safe to look here on D2

You've actually convinced me on voting Cook here. So i would be fine with that. I'm going to finish catching up first

can you explain why this post convinced you?

[fireisredsir]

sorry didn't realize how close it was to deadline, had an overwhelming weekend and haven't had energy to follow this

will try to be around more soon, some quick things for now

skimmed and all of the setup spec went over my head but if rolecop isn't very powerful as someone said then maybe it's real? being bulletproof actually matches up a lot with what i interpreted earlier as overly obvious softing so i kinda want to buy that

idk

don't really want to lim there still

t3 is kinda whatever to me, i did end up reading some of his recent town and scum games earlier and i think they are both pretty similarly low content and i didn't see a lot of difference. idk how to sort him but i think yeeting him here is kinda lazy and im not sure why he is the default place people are coalescing as opposed to like, hu tao, who i think has been a lot more scummy

i see asri just voted here so im down, his entry back into the thread was okay i guess but i don't really like his response to the cook claim (the bit where he first speculated it as a maf role and then backed off and said he hated setup spec when it felt like the wagon lost some traction, and some of the posts surrounding compromise options felt weird)

VOTE: italiano

[fireisredsir]

Okay, so I agree that Cook can be resolved later so let’s not today.

UNVOTE: Cook

So there were compelling arguments to let Cook be resolved later, which I understand, but scum want that extra day and the way Cook said (In paraphrasing) “just give me another day and I’ll show you” or something is just scummy. I’m going with my head here. I’ve been burned plenty of times by wonky mechanics and I’d just rather not.

VOTE: Cook

I’m staying here. If it gets me killed then so be it, I’ve always said I don’t need to be alive for town to win.

what lmao

[fireisredsir]

Of course I can only be 100% sure of myself. Invis is pretty high up on the town scale, but if they’re scum, then hey they’ve played a great game so far and I don’t mind losing there.

it doesn't feel like you've even tried to sort invis at all since what was basically rvs vibes

where is the confidence coming from

the statement about "they've played a great game so far and I don't mind losing there" feels out of place for what seems like basically a vibe read

[fireisredsir]

Okay great you’re here. What have you seen from Hu Tao? You say “they’ve been a lot more scummy”

To me as I mentioned SS, T3, and Hu occupy the same space for me which is not enough to get a true read there and can be dealt with later.

can't post at length rn but the reaction to cook felt like openwolfing tbh

[fireisredsir]

what makes you so confident that he's town tho

there has to be more than vibes

[fireisredsir]

Haven’t really paid attention to you which is my fault, but the way you’ve been positioning yourself around me all game and the 180 on Hu without much explanation is making me think you are scum.

i said hu tao was "maybe town" off like 3 posts when i was giving loose rvs reads. how is that a 180

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:

ok i realllly don't like that vote from ausuka and i want to read the black post

[fireisredsir]

i don't have time to read it rn can we not end the day yet

[fireisredsir]

ok im here

i think italiano is most likely scum of the three, i don't believe his claim

one point that idk if its been brought up but

if cook is town then having a town bulletproof rolecop means that basically anyone who claims after is probably going to be trueclaiming, i would expect? so i don't see why ausuka or italiano would be likely to fakeclaim here, i guess unless they thought it was the only option to prevent their own lim, and are just hoping the claim can buy them time to get a lim on cook. that seems fairly unlikely to me

and of those two claims i think odd night neapolitan sounds more likely to be a scum role than backup watcher

i guess it's possible cook is scum and both ausuka and italiano are town?? but idk i think italiano is scum either way, regardless of the alignment of other two

[fireisredsir]

let me go back and read the stuff i skimmed earlier

[fireisredsir]

Anyone considering voting outside of Cook/Ausuka/Italiano should figure out which of these 3 claimed roles we yeet today. We're not running a 4th person up to claim

I agree with this 100%

i am kinda confused why italiano if scum would claim unprompted which basically only accomplishes ensuring that the limpool is him+ausuka+cook

maybe points to 2 scum in the pool actually, and hoping that if one goes down people will see the others as relatively clear? idk

[fireisredsir]

i am also kinda confused about why black says she is willing to trust flower here

flower feels like they're twisting mech for agenda purposes to me

idk how limming cook here makes the most sense ever mechanically, even if you scumread her

[fireisredsir]

Please give it some time Black it's very important to get some more input here. If Cook flips town we lose our only way to verify roles. With three claims day 1 we really are going to need that this game, especially with modifiers.

agree w this

[fireisredsir]

if these are all 3 town PRs then they are actually only effectively 2 PRs bc then ausuka is just a named townie (unless the non-backup watcher is mafia)

so i think there's almost no way all 3 are town

[fireisredsir]

I wonder how much of Italiano's erratic behavior is because he's trying to look scummy to dodge a nightkill or roleblock or something?

if he was trying to dodge a nightkill then why would he claim with only like 4 votes on him

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: ausuka

I still prefer cook but running out of time

not going to engage with anything that has happened?

[fireisredsir]

if these are all 3 town PRs then they are actually only effectively 2 PRs bc then ausuka is just a named townie (unless the non-backup watcher is mafia)

so i think there's almost no way all 3 are town

I'm not sure where this conclusion comes from

If I'm a named townie why can't there be an on neapolitan and the 1 shot bp rolecop

i was saying that "all 3 PRs" wouldn't be accurate in that case bc it would actually only be 2

is 2 prs, with them being those roles, balanced? idk, i don't know balance, but i was assuming not

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: italiano

[fireisredsir]

hu tao please answer 1317

or if you continue to ignore it, everyone else please notice how it makes no sense that hu tao would become convinced that cook is scum off a post talking about how SS scum could imply cook scum based on associations

there's nothing about cook individually

im pretty sure hu tao just saw a long post from someone scumreading cook, skimmed it and saw it said "cook" a lot, and was like "ok sure thats probably a convincing case"

[fireisredsir]

i am also kinda confused about why black says she is willing to trust flower here

flower feels like they're twisting mech for agenda purposes to me

idk how limming cook here makes the most sense ever mechanically, even if you scumread her

I've played with flower a lot and they're mech opinions are usually on point. I prefer an Ausuka lim over IVD or Cook but at the time it felt like the Ausuka wagon wasn't going to get enough support. If I have to choose between Cook and IVD then I'm willing to trust Flower when they say Cook is mechanically more likely to be scum

the question was more, why are you not considering that flower could be scum who is using mech discussion to push advantageous things?

[fireisredsir]

it was just weird that none of that seemed visible in your posts, it was all "ok ill trust you" and then even when i brought it up now your first response seemed to be thinking only "is flower good enough at mech to be worth trusting their opinions?" and not "is flower an alignment that i can trust?"

just doesn't really feel like you were considering the possibility

[fireisredsir]

I thought about that because I feel like Cook is the type of role that scum really want limmed. If she's town and telling the truth then they have to lim her. Flower is pushing awfully hard for the lim

like if you genuinely had this thought prior to just now

then how does it follow that flower is good at mech

if scum really want to elim cook if she's town. and you were thinking about that. then doesn't that mean, without taking a read of cook into account, the lim is bad for town? and so it would be bad mechanically? and so the option that flower is pushing for may not actually be ideal?

[fireisredsir]

Well I was considering it but I don't think we should flashwagon Flower or Hu Tao, as much as I would be down. It's close to the deadline and we already have 3 claims

I wasn't all that particularly suspicious of HPE so I'm not sure what you were expecting from me here

thats a false dichotomy, the alternative isn't flashwagon flower or hu tao

im questioning why you were willing to allow yourself to be convinced by flower so easily, and why none of the doubt that you're now saying that you had was evident in your posts you made at the time

the visible result of not trusting flower wouldn't be wagoning them, it would be not being so willing to trust them and be okay with limming cook

[fireisredsir]

thats actually just such a weird post

"as much as i would be down"???

since when

[fireisredsir]

btw since I've seen basically nothing from T3 what's the case there? I find it pretty sus that Invis and Ausuka both think Cook's gigascum and then vote the biggest counterwagon instead just cause they want Rolecop results

-A

more so from the stuff Fire said about Cook makes her townie enough to vote someone else

confused by this

you were initially compelled by it (1305) but then pretty soon after said "could still vote cook the post wasn't that townie lol" (1315) and then did vote cook again

but this is giving an explanation for why you unvoted the second time, which i don't think had anything to do with what i said, since you had already decided that wasn't enough to keep your vote off cook

the second unvote seems like it was inspired by what asri said around 1485

idk i guess this isn't that scummy bc i think the vote switch still was fairly supported but it is kinda weird to lose track of your own progression and thoughts like this

[fireisredsir]

Fire's focus on something as insignificant as me trusting Flower or not feels like a fabricated distraction from the Ausuka wagon. The two of them showed up to casually nudge the IVD wagon as soon as the Ausuka wagon gained speed

Stay the course, folks. Don't be distracted

i am rereading the things i missed and that stood out so i mentioned it, and your response was suspicious to me

if it's distracting then it's equally distracting from the italiano wagon, which is the one i want, so idk what purpose you think that would serve

there's more than one scum

[fireisredsir]

ok reading black's 1536

i think overall it doesn't feel very agenda-pushing to me, it does feel like she went into it trying to prove that cook and ausuka are partners, and is looking for everything that supports that, but over time there's things that kinda start to make that feel less likely and you can see the thought process evolve. i agree with most of the places where she starts to step back and think "hmm maybe they aren't paired", so it does feel p natural

there's a few points that are like, ausuka didn't point this one specific thing out, which she should have if she's scumreading/townreading this person, and i find those points p unconvincing personally. i do that too, and i think it's kind of an unreasonable standard to hold people to. it's not even good play to point out every little thing bc at a certain point it just becomes noise

there's other points that are fine, i do agree that some of the ways that ausuka has approached things has felt off, especially around cook

as a whole i don't find it that convincing. which isn't to say i townread ausuka, but these points don't change my read much

i do still find the ausuka vote on italiano there to be pretty sketchy and that does make me a little nervous idk

[fireisredsir]

i am not very hopeful about ausuka being scum at this point given that wagon composition tbh

[fireisredsir]

italiano hu tao probably scum

black probably town i think still? ive wavered on that a few times but i think it's most likely

invisibility eh, cook eh

katy probably town

offwagon, flower likely scum imo, asri still towny, happy probably town, t3 and ss idk but lean town i guess

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: hu tao

[fireisredsir]

im still down to lim in the claims but i think late day flashwagons are +++town even if they don't go through, bc they usually put scum on the back foot and disrupt any plans they have, and people's responses to them can be really telling

[fireisredsir]

i have to go, won't be able to check thread for a few hours but will be back about an hour before deadline

[fireisredsir]

im here, will be able to check periodically for a little bit

would prefer hu tao if we can but i can move to ensure a lim goes through if necessary

[fireisredsir]

o
I'm a beautiful human being!

vote a main wagon

[fireisredsir]

scum will shoot, if theres a vig they'll shoot, if i get a result on something i'll post it, and if italiano survives he'll post result too

we'll have a lot of information to run off of

what did italiano claim

you've been voting italiano this whole time without even knowing what he claimed? okay

[fireisredsir]

im here

uhh initial thoughts

we have a vig, people said yesterday that vig = scum cook? but then cook walks back the bulletproof claim so does that still apply? or is she just doing that bc she realizes she's kinda screwed. but if she's scum bulletproof, why claim it in the first place? also hate the tracker outing but not sure if that's just bad play vs scummy

italiano claiming result on black second is annoying and probably scummy. i kinda think that if town does have all minus one of these roles and also a potential watcher out there, scum must have some power? such as a roleblocker of some kind? so it's weird to me that nobody was blocked. im not sure what that means if anything

i assume it's unlikely that black could be a scum tracker? idk if that's ever a scum role

i am not very confident in trying to mechsolve games at all but on play i still think italiano is scummy

i don't really trust flower tbh

i usually go to SS for mech takes and im not entirely sure if i trust him completely here but i think i do more than flower

[fireisredsir]

What do we think of the relative power level of the three roles claimed? Everything is conditional on something it seems.

Balance-wise Italiano locktown, Cook lockscum, Ausuka the claim is passable

I think there is at least one scum in the two and if you can somehow convince me it's not Ausuka I would be impressed

Ausuka can be scum but I don't see a world where Cook is town and if Cook's trueclaiming that implies a vig that could be shooting with good info instead of wasting time doing nothing when Cook's BP after an Ausuka flip

-A

Ok. So why do you think Italiano is locktown?

Combination of him just doing his own thing outside of the Cook wagon that makes him feel unpaired (esp. the happy vote in 1440 that pretty obviously isn't going anywhere) and the claim being the most believable of the bunch. There's an element of pre-flip association with Cook in that read but even if she flips green I feel decent about him

-A

ok im here

i think italiano is most likely scum of the three, i don't believe his claim

one point that idk if its been brought up but

if cook is town then having a town bulletproof rolecop means that basically anyone who claims after is probably going to be trueclaiming, i would expect? so i don't see why ausuka or italiano would be likely to fakeclaim here, i guess unless they thought it was the only option to prevent their own lim, and are just hoping the claim can buy them time to get a lim on cook. that seems fairly unlikely to me

and of those two claims i think odd night neapolitan sounds more likely to be a scum role than backup watcher

i guess it's possible cook is scum and both ausuka and italiano are town?? but idk i think italiano is scum either way, regardless of the alignment of other two

If town has a 1-shot BP Rolecop then it makes negative sense setup wise for scum to have an Odd Night Neopolitan, if anything you'd expect it to be the other way around. If you think Italiano's trueclaiming he shouldn't be the lim until Cook gets flipped

i am also kinda confused about why black says she is willing to trust flower here

flower feels like they're twisting mech for agenda purposes to me

idk how limming cook here makes the most sense ever mechanically, even if you scumread her

Regardless of alignment I don't lie about mech if I think someone might correctly contradict me. I know Invis/Black/happy from previous games so for that to be happening here I'd need to be scum with happy and also have assurance that the rest of the playerlist wont contradict me so probably at bare minimum Ausuka as well

I thought about that because I feel like Cook is the type of role that scum really want limmed. If she's town and telling the truth then they have to lim her. Flower is pushing awfully hard for the lim

like if you genuinely had this thought prior to just now

then how does it follow that flower is good at mech

if scum really want to elim cook if she's town. and you were thinking about that. then doesn't that mean, without taking a read of cook into account, the lim is bad for town? and so it would be bad mechanically? and so the option that flower is pushing for may not actually be ideal?

The lim is only bad for town if Cook is town, it's negative utility to keep a bp scum rolecop that'll lie about results and can't get vigged alive

---

Preferred lims for me are Cook >> Ausuka >>>>> Italiano and it's pretty dumb that over half the playerlist can agree that Cook's just scum here and then also be too afraid to vote her just cause she claimed Rolecop. More votes on Cook again please
-Nameless

I don't really think Italiano bring scum neapolitan makes zero sense setup wise

You think Scum Odd Day Neopolitan in a Town 1-shot BP Rolecop game makes sense? Feels like there's a lack of scum power in that setup

-Nameless

I don't really think Italiano bring scum neapolitan makes zero sense setup wise

You think Scum Odd Day Neopolitan in a Town 1-shot BP Rolecop game makes sense? Feels like there's a lack of scum power in that setup

-Nameless

It doesn't make sense if that's the only scum pr but why would that be the case

Yeah but in that case to make the setup work it'd be even swingier than what Cook being real by herself would already imply since there'd be some do everything gigarole for scum to make it work

-Nameless

@Flower, Cook is not happening today

We're letting scum get away? Lame

VOTE: Ausuka

Go hammer this Black Italiano is town

-A

Et tu flower

I don't think you flip red here, I just think Italiano

definitely

flips green though and I don't want to risk that going through when he's already E-1

-A

I think of my wagon asri is probably the only one who I actively think is town

I'm sure people are going to suspect them for constantly changing their reads and acting like anyone who doesn't agree with {current scumteam here} is an idiot and I don't really blame you, good luck

The current scumteams are ausuka/fire/flower flower/fire/cook ausuka/happy/flower and invisibility/Hu Tao/ItalianoVd and anyone who doesn't agree with that is a beautiful human being

Can't believe you didn't include me in the last team as well, so rude

Anyways Cook shouldn't be checking Ausuka/Italiano because:

• If Cook is town then Ausuka is town (No reason to setup the Backup Watcher claim otherwise) and Italiano's probably scum fakeclaiming because too much investigative power otherwise so the check doesn't matter because it's still a 1f1 that has to get dealt with
  
• If Cook is scum then either Ausuka is scum and we won't get a real result or Ausuka is town and we wont be able to trust the result anyways. Italiano's locktown until massclaim in that case since otherwise the setup's kinda wack

Also the extreme resistance to a Cook wagon going through while everyone agrees she's scum and the counterwagon being a meh lurker slot makes me think there's scum interference defusing the wagon

-Nameless

this is what i don't trust btw

- started out saying that off the claims, italiano was locktown and cook was lockscum
- follows up by saying that part of that is based on gameplay read and preflips, but that

even if she flips green

they feel decent about him
- continues to argue that italiano shouldn't be limmed based on mechanics, and a couple arguments (which ausuka p quickly points out as faulty) about how his role doesn't make sense as scum if cook is town
- italiano is definitely green

and then finally at the end of the day when actually laying out the logic of the situation, they say that if cook flips town, italiano is probably scum

which goes pretty much counter to everything they were arguing initially and makes the rest feel like taking advantage of mech arguments to push an agenda

i don't think it's excusable as saying they had a strong scumread on cook and were allowing that preflip to influence their takes, bc they also specifically argued that italiano was still probtown even if cook was town, until it came to the end of the day

so im not really willing to trust flower's takes on mech at face value bc even giving maximum benefit of the doubt, they're allowing gameplay reads to influence the mech ideas that they're pushing. feels more to me like they're pushing agenda though, just in the kinda slimy way that they have framed arguments when talking to ausuka and black

[fireisredsir]

Hmm. Ok. Let me think on this. I'm not going to reveal right now so just give it some time

Black if you tracked S_S staying home can you come out with this information now before I get into a tunnel here?

-Nameless

Fire stayed home

i don't think anyone expects this to be fake lol but might as well confirm that yes i did

ngl i am getting flashbacks to hollow knight where that turned into a mechfest+me being soft cleared and i just had no idea how to play in that gamestate and kinda threw

i will try not to do that this time zzzzzzz

[fireisredsir]

my initial reaction was thinking that scum probably had no reason to be especially active in shaping things near the end of the day if both wagons were town

like, at the very least no need to take action to expose themselves

which is why idk why scum cook would vote ausuka at the end there. even if you believe it makes no sense from her as town to think ausuka could be scum, there's no benefit to her as scum to do that

[fireisredsir]

i guess that's probably true, especially if that was the scum shot then they really wanted to get rid of ausuka?

i haven't gone back and reread end of day post flips but there's a lot there and i would like to do that

[fireisredsir]

I mean this is kind of obvious but it makes me dislike Cook.

can you elaborate

[fireisredsir]

if the mech is obvious then SS will agree with you and then okay fine whatever

if he disagrees or thinks it could go either way then im going off dayplay

[fireisredsir]

i think scum SS wouldn't ever tie himself to scum cook like this. nor would scum cook make the kind of mechanical mistakes and short-term thinking that you're suggesting, if partnered with SS

if anything i could believe that he's scum w italiano and uses mech tmi to get cred to bus and ride that to endgame

but i think he's probably just town

[fireisredsir]

Like the only people actually meching here rn are happy, S_S, Italiano, and I. Happy, Italiano, and I all think Cook is mechanically scum, do you think we're the full scum team or maybe we fucking know what we're talking about and aren't lying when we say the setup doesn't make any sense if Cook's town?

-A

i didn't see happy think cook is mechanically scum, where is that

[fireisredsir]

hmm ok

[fireisredsir]

i guess nothing interesting happened

[fireisredsir]

oh god can you just read and then give like a summary of thoughts instead

[fireisredsir]

he did this when scum in warrior cats and dragged it out for like dayyyysss

[fireisredsir]

i mean he might do it as town too idk

it's just like possibly the least useful way of engaging with the thread

[fireisredsir]

not really that relevant of thoughts from 30 pages ago and only making it through 9/30 pages

[fireisredsir]

Day 1 Votecount 12

Cook (5):

ItalianoVD, Black, Hu Tao, Invisibility, Ausuka

Hu Tao (2):

fireisredsir, Cook

T3 (1):

Arsi Teroka

Something_Smart (1):

T3

iamveryhappy (1):

KatyKimFanClub

Ausuka (1):

iamveryhappy

Not Voting (2):

Something_Smart, Flower

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to reach majority.

There are (expired on 2023-06-20 13:00:00) remaining.

ok it is p wild that we went from this at 48 hours left, and cook was at e-1 for a bit right before this, to it being between italiano and ausuka, to it being between ausuka and hu tao, to the lim being on hu tao

[fireisredsir]

Question for the people who aren't voting for proposing an alternative: What *is* the alternative?
@T3
@Invis
@fireisred
@black

i wanted t3 to be like, present, and also i was procrastinating on rereading end of day

earlier i was spiritually voting italiano

im not really sure how i feel anymore tbh but i am trying the reread

[fireisredsir]

Flower's vote must be finely scrutinized Erynis did not fully feel like town despite many people seeming okay with everything here.

This one is unimpressed by T3. T3 is parked on smart but not hunting. T3 is pulling the 'Black is town card' which at this point is a great way to discredit Ausuka regardless of Black's alignment.

T3 seems happy with the Cook elim and stays away from thread to draw no further sus. Already made the retroactive Cook can be scum read for self preservation here.

Probably someone looking to hammer Cook.

hm

[fireisredsir]

Okay, so I agree that Cook can be resolved later so let’s not today.

UNVOTE: Cook

Actually

VOTE: iamveryhappy

this actually maybe is slightly towny idk

[fireisredsir]

Is it possible Cook would be our only investigative role? I personally don't think we should vote for her because it might be really hard to find scum this game.

In a setup where Town 1-shot BP Rolecop makes sense there's also very likely other mid to low power investigative roles like Tracker/Watcher/Weak Visitor/Backup/Whatever

this was pre ausuka claim, kinda interesting that this line of thought didn't stick around much once we found out that those roles do exist

[fireisredsir]

i remember live i thought italiano was like really blatant scum around page 61 but im not seeing it as much as i did the first time idk

[fireisredsir]

I even have a 14p game that has a 3v11 setup, this should be 3v10
on prs here I do agree the cook pr seems a bit too op, should be balanced by making other prs weaker
how many prs do we have here is the real question
I'm guessing three
how do I know this
I make setups and am p good at them

part of the reason i called BS on italiano's claim

like look there in the future

this post is actually fairly weird

this was before italiano's real claim, so it was talking about his mason "claim"

the first part kinda makes sense, she thought masons + rolecop was too strong ig (which, okay, doesn't actually make a ton of sense imo but at least it's consistent)

but then saying "look there in the future" doesn't follow from this at all bc the claim was a joke regardless of alignment. so idk why that's added on here as a follow up to talking about his claim. it feels like she's forgetting reasons why people are suspicious to her bc this one shouldn't be applicable anymore

[fireisredsir]

ok this post isn't going to be very much analysis i just kinda wanted to track through how the wagons moved. at the very least this should be useful once we have more flips. so, starting from a point where there isn't a lot of coalescing yet: 3 on cook, 2 on t3, 2 on hu tao (1327)

cook quickly jumps to 6 (e-1)

- from flower, invisibility, and ausuka joining. cook claims in 1363, some people back off

- there was a small wagon back onto t3, led by ausuka with 1407 (she was on him before switching to cook), followed by cook herself. flower then rejoins the cook wagon

- italiano leaves cook and votes happy in 1440. maybe not as towny actually given the context, since there's basically 0 pressure on italiano at this point so he wouldn't feel a need to force cook through

- invisibility leaves cook and votes t3 in 1486. these last two unvotes were prob the biggest factor in dismantling the cook wagon

t3 now at 4 votes, cook at 3 votes

- asri and i vote italiano starting in 1490, asri switches to invisibility right after. italiano rejoins on cook in 1501. invisibility and cook vote italiano. i dont think the response is as bad as i did initially but i still could see it as being scum panicking a little under sudden pressure when he thought he was going to be able to coast, and re-joining cook once there's pressure on himself is pretty convenient timing

the wagons have shifted now. t3 wagon is gone. italiano at 3, cook back at 4

- then, i think 1527 by black is really interesting. it's a vote on ausuka, and an explicit statement that if she doesn't get enough support on ausuka she can switch to italiano. if italiano is scum, this probably is a pretty big signal to the scumteam that they should try to make sure the ausuka wagon has support. given that context, i think happy voting italiano right after in 1531 is pretty strongly unaligned with italiano? especially bc he was previously voting ausuka

- flower votes ausuka in 1533

- black drops her big ausuka post, italiano votes ausuka, ausuka votes italiano, i unvote

wagons have shifted again. now it's italiano 4, ausuka 3, and cook down to 1

- ausuka claims in 1552, flower switches back to cook right after. italiano claims in 1559 and goes back to cook after that. this claim is still super bizarre to me. i have trouble figuring out what the motivation could be as either alignment. i guess either way it's probably panic due to the pressure, and that sense of survivalism could come from either being scum or being a town pr?

italiano 4, cook 3, ausuka 1

- general consensus establishes to flip within the 3 claims. asri and italiano vote ausuka. asri unvotes, hu tao and cook vote ausuka. i vote italiano

wagons are now 4 italiano, 4 ausuka, and cook wagon is gone again with 1

- invisibility and katy vote ausuka back to back in 1680. big shift here, since invisibility was previously voting italiano. idk, the going back and forth between the three wagons in a way feels uninformed to me? there's some general wariness about the direction of things, some people expressing discontent. flower suggests a cook flashwagon in 1695.

ausuka 6, italiano 3

- asri and black vote italiano (the latter moving from ausuka), which makes it 5 on each. flower adds a vote back to ausuka in 1704 and asks black to hammer there. i think the movements of flower here are relatively explainable by their thought progressions, but something about the timing of them just consistently shows up as feeling really shady, especially if italiano is scum

- black is hesitant on ausuka and with flower's confidence, and starts the hu tao wagon in 1716. ausuka and flower join.

ausuka 5, italiano 3, hu tao 3

- i join hu tao wagon in 1741. italiano isn't interested in joining. katy votes cook in 1748. italiano follows, asri votes ausuka, and flower votes cook

wagons have now shifted again, ausuka 4, hu tao 3, cook 3, italiano 1

- what's interesting is how things moved from those 3 being relatively equal options, to the end of day being between mostly hu tao and ausuka. im not sure if it's a scummy shift though? it seems like cook wagon just wasn't really taking off -- cook joined hu tao, italiano moved back to ausuka, black joined ausuka, and then katy moved to hu tao. i have a hard time seeing any of these being a "save cook" vote, it feels more like people just gave up on the cook wagon

ausuka 5, hu tao 4, cook 1

from here i don't think the end of day is super relevant bc we know both wagons are town, it's more wondering about how we got here

idk if i have any grand sweeping conclusions or anything but it feels like there were potential places where there were efforts to move things away from italiano, whereas with cook it feels more like there was a resistance to getting the wagons going in the first place. aside from the first time when she got to e-1 and claimed, the wagon rarely made it above 3, but kept disappearing and then popping up again

in terms of the play of the individual slots during this time im finding it harder to judge. i think both don't make sense at times to me, and have questionable motivations. there's a lot of survivalism from both of them. there's also places where their trajectory makes sense as coming from a place of town thought. i still think there's more places from italiano that feel scummy tho, especially his trajectory on cook, which is still really strange to me

idk i need to digest and think about this a bit

[fireisredsir]

while i generally agree with SS' take that italiano's claim FEELS like a scum fakeclaim bc that's the sort of thing that scum claim, of the mech-based arguments that is probably the one that feels the least like it has a stable foundation

[fireisredsir]

If Cook's somehow still alive come MeLo/ELo just deadsheep Ausuka and I and lim her already, this is just painful

Cook has been the leading wagon and at e-2 for awhile now. I'm not sure why you're talking like the lim won't go through

yea idk all this might not even matter anyway, invisibility already said he wanted to vote cook but just hadn't done it yet

there probably aren't even votes to elim italiano anyway

no idea what t3 wants

[fireisredsir]

idk does italiano scum really tell me that i should focus on the dayplay when ive been saying that i found his dayplay more scummy than cook's lol?

is it a weird lamist bluff attempt thing?

is it just that he's so confident that cook is obvscum in every way, that anyone who reads dayplay will see the truth?

i kinda respect it either way but it's a strange post

[fireisredsir]

i feel like im talking myself into being okay with flipping cook bc i don't feel confident enough to demand that we flip italiano

i think in these type of situations i naturally want to fold to the more confident people but i don't think that has a very high success rate tbh especially when 3 of the 10 people here are scum

but idk even when i recognize that, i don't really know if i want to do anything else

[fireisredsir]

it's hard for me to trust flower just bc a lot of their posts feel so agenda-pushing to me but i would be very impressed if they're scum here, even when it does feel like it could be convenient, there is such a consistency to thought process and mindset

except that one bit where they changed positions on what scum cook means for italiano's alignment but idk that's plausible i guess

[fireisredsir]

i agree

i think SS even if scum would feel obligated to mech in a way that he feels is correct bc he's careful about that sort of thing. i think the world where he's scum with italiano is more likely than the one where he's scum with cook tbh

funniest world is if he is and he genuinely didn't want italiano to claim that but italiano panicked and went rogue and now he's channeling that legit frustration into the push, while still not working that much towards being very convincing about it

idk how likely that is though

[fireisredsir]

when did you decide that SS was likely scum and did your opinion change at all after the cook flip?

and what made you decide to use it as an investigative rather than a protective

[fireisredsir]

im confused why vig didn't shoot italiano

[fireisredsir]

i think he was pretty outed but giving up is always a strange choice

i feel like it's more likely to be a strategic choice than literally giving up

see recent dance game where scum ydra left the dance to pull me out of it and people thought she was giving up and so limmed the wrong person without really thinking about things

i guess my point is that people should be careful about assumptions here since he probably would be doing this if he thinks he left his team in a good place and looking unpaired w him? otherwise it doesn't really make sense