Mini 1145 — Plain Mafia (over)

[Valern]

Why was I prodded? -.-

A few thoughts before I get down to business:
-Conciseness is pro-town. I will skim walls, and will probably only post them if I'm making a PBPA case on someone in LYLO or something.
-Despite my join date I have a decent amount of experience.
-Gender neutral pronouns are the best. Failing that, I won't notice or care if you arbitrarily assign a gender to me.

I like DRK's case on Lucresia. I also like Romanus' vote on Pine (PEDIT: And I think I like it a little more every time Pine posts).

VOTE: Lucresia

D1 wagon go go.

[Valern]

I wouldn't find RotN's question suspicious for any reason other than it seems like the kind of question scum would ask in order to look like they were doing something without actually

doing

anything. And there's quite a bit of fluff going on in his iso so far, but I think that's probably due to him actually being around during early RVS.

Verdict: Null for now, but scummy if it becomes a part of a larger pattern.

[Valern]

That's not my only post, you know. <.< I've already commented on what I find most interesting, but until there are more posts from Luc there's nothing more for me to say on that front. I try to keep a high content:post ratio. I'm not going to say anything unless I think it's worth saying; anything more is anti-town.

Do you find people who don't post much to be scummy, ICE? (Don't go on a theory rant, please, a few sentences are ample enough.)

I find Romanus' posting to be rather satisfactory thus far. To me it's all about what you say (or don't say), not how many posts/words you use to say it, and I agree with his read on Pine.

I cannot, off the top of my head, remember a damn thing AMP has said, which is probably a bad sign.

[Valern]

If you're town, prove it. Start scumhunting. So far, you saying "hey guys, we should be looking for scum" followed by you not doing anything of the sort is just adding to your scumminess.

In the meantime, moar Lucresia votes please.

(Side note: I actually think lynchking might be a possible partner for Lucresia. He comes in, says nothing about anything except (hypothetically) bussing his buddy, and Lucresia decides he's not worth pursuing because, oops, he's said something. I would think if either of them were town Lucresia would be more inclined to push him harder for saying almost nothing. This obviously isn't a very strong case at all yet and I wouldn't be willing to vote lynchking based on this and nothing else even if Lucresia flips scum, but I'll be keeping an eye on him.)

[Valern]

Goodness, this is a mess. It is page 4, Lucresia has fallen apart and claimed at L-2,

Valern is asking for more votes on her, and more than 1 would be a lynch.

Exactly.

Unless Lucresia quickly and greatly improves I am not at all opposed to seeing her lynched, even if that lynch ends the day early. As things stand now I feel very confident she's scum.

Something about ICE's been bothering me but I haven't been able to fully put my finger on it. I also support an ICE wagon as long as Lucresia and Pine don't start to slip under the radar as a result.

@Mod:

Can you add a "Not Voting" list to all your votecounts please? Thanks.

[Valern]

I prefer short, fast-paced games that go too fast for people to get to the point where they're posting walls full of argument by repetition/fluff/quote wars. You're welcome to disagree with me, but that doesn't make my opinion anti-town. (There's a definite scum advantage in having a day stagnate and drag on longer than it needs to. Also, if the game is always rapidly changing, it forces scum to think on their feet more, which makes them more prone to making mistakes.)

Trendall may have sheeped in voting you, ICE, but the rest of his posts are solid enough that I'm not too worried about it unless he makes a habit of it.

She's suspicious in how she keeps posing non-content, but she hasn't done anything lynchworthy yet.

What, specifically, do you consider "lynchworthy" then?

[Valern]

You are a very irritating person.

scummy overreaction is scummy and also overreaction. Also, baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

VOTE: ICEninja

Lucresia can wait.

[Valern]

Less OMGUS, more scumhunting, plzkthx.

[Valern]

Nah, Trendall, I'm pretty sure DRK is town. Misguided town at this point, but town.

Let me spell it out for those who are incapable of reading between the lines and interpreting my posts as anything other than "Valern is posting silly pictures, lol" -- ICE is scummy because he went into SURVIVAL MODE ZOMG the moment he got some pressure on him. This is not a towny reaction to pressure. A towny reaction to being voted is to more or less ignore it (unless that person is voting them for scummy reasons) and continue to concentrate on scumhunting.

Townies focus on catching scum. Scum focus on talking their way out of the noose/making the case on them look stupid. This is How To Find Scum-Motivated Posts 101, people.

(Also my strongest town read right now is on Erratus so the vote was partially me sheeping. Baaaaaaaaaa.)

[Valern]

It's funny, I logged on with the intention of reading any new posts and basically reiterating that Lucresia is my 2nd suspect after ICE still, only to see

that

. o.o

I will probably

never

in my mafia career fully read a wall, but from what I scanned of it I actually see more indications of town than scum. That surprised me. She falls back on a lot of information instead of analysis but the reads as a whole don't seem like they're coming from scum to me. IDK. I definitely don't think any of this outweighs her earlier scumminess but I'm still bumping her down to my third suspect for the time being, after ICE and Pine.

That said, walls are pretty anti-town. Say what you have to say and say it

concisely

. It's not that hard. Really.

[Valern]

I'm here, don't replace me. D:

I've just been busy. >.<

Post in a bit, gotta catch up.

[Valern]

@Mod:

Your rules 21 and 23 state that you prod for activity after 48 hours and replace after an additional 24. According to your own ruleset, I wasn't even eligible for a prod until about an hour ago. I appreciate you trying to keep activity up in your games, but maybe you could follow your ruleset so people don't get blindsided by getting replaced before the rules say they're supposed to? Thanks.

[Valern]

BIG CATCH-UP POST OF DOOM

Ok, I'm just going to do this by bullet points to try to keep things in short, digestible chunks. (I also took the liberty of bolding player names throughout this after realizing how long this catch-up post was going to be. Augh. Sorry about that.)

---

- I'm slowly seeing a better defensiveness/scum-hunting ratio from

ICE

(I'm looking at post 126 here). It's a good start but not enough for me to want to take my vote off of him just yet.

- As I've said many times before by now,

Pine

is in my top three suspects, but I don't agree with

Peabody

(127) that bandwagoning is a scumtell. As with many other things, it's

how

you do it, not

what

you do. I do agree that the

manner

in which

Pine

has jumped on wagons has been scummy, though.

-

RotN

(love the screenname/avatar, btw) has a mostly solid 129, but I don't at all agree with his

EA

vote. As I said before, he's one of if not

the

strongest town read I have right now. 'Annoying' isn't a scumtell, especially if the person's being 'annoying' because of their aggressive way of scumhunting.

EA

is top on my town list mostly due to the way in which he dove into the spotlight early on and made efforts to stay there, which isn't something scum are very likely to do at all. (

DRK

is high on my town-list for a very similar reason, although zie hasn't been posting nearly as much lately by the looks of it.)

-My initial reaction to

Pine's

vote on

Peabody

in post 133 was that it was just... bad. But more on that in a bit.

-

EA

has a post full of self-defense (136) but I think his scumhunting near the end is probably on the right track. TBH I don't think I'd even noticed

AMP

was

in

the game until I saw he was being replaced (along with me, ha). Very interested in seeing what the replacement has to say.

-More solid posting from

ICE

(139). I think it may be time to remove my vote, but I'll definitely continue keeping an eye on him.

-

Yoshi

#142: HI YOSHI! *wave*

- The back-and-forth between

Peabody

and

Pine

near the bottom of page 6 is mostly a waste of space imo, talking about stuff that happened pages ago. I have had a brief moment of hesitation about my scum-read on

Pine

, though, so I guess it wasn't

all

for nothing. I can kind of see where he's coming from with 145. I'd like to see

Pine

do some commenting on people who aren't

Peabody

or

Lucresia

.

-Speaking of

Lucresia

, I don't like how she slunk back into the shadows after the pressure went off of her.

- I

actually

read (most of)

Yoshi's

wall, haha. And to respond to what he said about me,

this

is what I said:

I prefer short, fast-paced games that go too fast for people to get to the point where they're posting walls full of argument by repetition/fluff/quote wars.

You cut off everything that I wrote after "get to the point", which pretty drastically changes the meaning of the sentence. Why? And how is this sentence any different than the mantra I repeated in our newbie game that "conciseness is pro-town"?

Regarding your second quote of mine,

“A towny reaction to being voted is to more or less ignore it (unless that person is voting them for scummy reasons) and continue to concentrate on scumhunting.”

I just got out of a game where I replaced in during LYLO, and the scum were spending most of their time defending themselves and not scumhunting, whereas I and the other not-confirmed town spent a lot more time scumhunting than defending ourselves. That's where I was coming from with that.

- I think

Yoshi

has solid reads overall though. And I'm going to be joining the

Trendall

wagon if he doesn't respond well to the pressure on him. I initially thought his sheep vote on

ICE

was okay because he'd given more content earlier in the game, but he hasn't done pretty much anything since I don't think.

- @

Trendall

post 155: Is that really all you have to say? I think you may be taking the 'conciseness is pro-town' mantra way overboard. Let's see some scumhunting from you.

---

TL;DR

-feeling better about

ICE

due to seeing more scumhunting from him.
- still think

Pine

is scummy but need to see him comment on people who aren't

Peabody

or

Lucresia

to make a better evaluation.
- hard to update my read on

Lucresia

when she hasn't said anything, but I think the fact that she disappeared at the same time the pressure on her did speaks volumes.
-

Trendall

's vote on

ICE

initially seemed okay to me because he had content early on, but given that he doesn't seem to have posted anything particularly useful lately he has quickly risen up on my suspect list.
-

EA

's case on

AMP

is good but I want to see what the replacement

Meransiel

has to say.


Top scum-suspects as of this moment:

-Trendall
-Pine
-AMP/Meransiel
-Lucresia

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Trendall

[Valern]

It's so easy to cherry-pick your points when you're using meta as the basis of your case, isn't it DarthYoshi?

Day two of the game we were in together, I called out the scumteam using mostly process of elimination (which is a lot of what I'm doing here, actually -- I'm pretty much willing to lynch anyone who's not on my town or probtown list, which is currently 6 people out of 12 with 4 on my scum list and 2 on my null list). Out of 40 posts in that game,

only 6 of them were made day 2, the day I lynched scum

. And despite voicing suspicions early on in the day that I later ended up voting,

I was at the very very end of

both

of the wagons I was alive for in that game

.

Even when I

do

pioneer cases, being at the end of wagons is not at all unusual for me. (And

I didn't even pioneer the Crazypianist!scum case

... h3ll0 did

long

before I ever said anything. I pioneered the PrayPiotr case, but he flipped town so that hardly counts.)

But hey, two can play the scumhunting-via-meta game.

@DarthYoshi

, is there a reason you are focusing on hunting via meta more in this game? IIRC you focused on hunting via motivations a lot more than you focused on hunting via comparing meta. What changed?

@ICE

, have you figured out what was 'bugging' you about Ranger's vote on Trendall yet? You kind of brought it up as an afterthought and then tunnelled me in your next two posts without saying anything more about it. It just feels like possible "placeholder pressure" you can point to to hop on a Ranger-wagon if that gains steam. Any other thoughts on Ranger?

[Valern]

Trendall's vote on me seems to be more motivated by a desire to put more weight on the leading-wagon-that's-not-him than anything.

I'm looking forward to seeing CrazyPianist in action, as he was scum last game and was somewhat obvious about it.Romanus was actually on my town list but in re-reading him I'm not really sure why I felt so strongly about him being town other than that he made what I thought was a good vote on Pine early on.

I also wonder if Meransiel isn't lurking to avoid being the lynch for today. Seems to me, townies who just replaced in are generally a lot more active and eager to please when they first show up...

I probably have more thoughts, but my migraine is currently crowding them out, hah. Juicier post later, probably.

[Valern]

I think I clarified this already, but I voted ICE because of his "you're irritating" comment to Erratus more than anything. In context it just read to me like he didn't even care to properly defend himself, so he was going to throw out some name-calling instead and see if that discouraged the wagon on him. I kept my vote on him as long as I did because I felt he was too defensive + defending himself poorly to be town. I feel a lot better about him now that he's stopped being defensive and started doing more scumhunting, but he's still not quite made it to my town list.

I realize this probably comes a little too late to be particularly useful, but I was looking at the wiki pages of quite a few of the people in this game earlier today, and noticed on Trendall's it said he's always been town. This led me to glance at a few of the completed games, and the difference between his posting there and his posting here is truly night-and-day. Certainly not something I'd give much thought to on its own, but given the fact that he's apparently never been scum before, if this is his first scum game it would make perfect sense to see such a big difference in play.

If Trendall flips scum I'm going to be taking a very hard look at DeathRowKitty, who has been one of my stronger town reads most of the game, but jumped ship from Trendall's wagon when it started actually gaining a little steam (and also started posting less around the same time IIRC, although from isoing it looks like there's been a gradual decrease all game, so this might not actually have anything to do with Trendall). I also agree with Yoshi that one of Pine/Peabody is probably scum pending a Trendall scum flip, but it should be obvious by now who I think is the more likely scum out of the pair of them.

And apparently I get rambly when I'm tired. ._.

[Valern]

I've had a town read on Peabody for most of the game, and even after re-reading him in iso after DarthYoshi's case on him came up I still think he's more likely town than scum (but this will depend a lot on how he responds to the sudden pressure on him). I'm also not at all fond of how ridiculously quickly this wagon built up when Trendall is far, far scummier in my opinion.

ICE has moved up to a town read for me. He's had a decent string of solid towny posts.

I'm moderately suspicious of DarthYoshi (for reasons that largely won't matter if he turns out to be right about Peabody as there's virtually no way they're scum together, so I'm not elaborating until we see a reaction from him), so expect to see a case on DY soon if I feel Peabody's response to his wagon is towny.

[Valern]

@Pine:

If you're going to attack a popular suspect for the sake of attacking a popular suspect, do at least try to not be obvious about it and actually have a base to your accusations. "Coaching"? "Laying groundwork for his defense" (which sounds, btw, like a fancy way of saying "coaching" but meant to sound like something different)? Really? lolwtfno. Sorry. I specifically made effort to

not

say anything Peabody could use to defend himself against DarthYoshi's case, and I will continue to do so until he has responded to it. How in hell is that coaching?

@DarthYoshi:

In the exchanges between Pine and Peabody, I've felt that Pine's accusations have been ill-founded at best and downright scummy at worst. Peabody didn't respond to Pine with OMGUS or act like the "nervous scum" Pine seemed to be painting him to be, but pointed out the scumtells in Pine's actions and then voted him. I also think Peabody was doing a decent amount of scumhunting up until the point where he and Pine started tunneling each other. This could be totally outweighed if he responds badly to the case you've made on him though, which despite the flaws is 110% more solid than anything Pine has said about him.

Emphasis mine in both instances. By 'him,' do you mean me or Peabody?

I meant Peabody.

[Valern]

Trendall's unvote of Lucresia is odd.

Where? I never voted for Lucresia.

There have been over 20 player posts since you last posted. Don't you have

anything

else more useful to say? What do you think of Peabody?

[Valern]

Ugh, this ended up long again. I'm not doing a very good job of keeping to my "conciseness is pro-town" mantra this game. Consider the bolded parts my version of a tl;dr.

-----

@Pine:

I think you're just mad because I'm not falling for the prime mislynch target of the day and you were counting on me sheeping onto this wagon like the other ones. Your "totes coaching" case is terribly weak, and

you didn't even respond to my point that I specifically avoided saying anything about DY's case on him.

The coaching is in telling Peabody to be careful how he responds to the wagon, and make sure it's as Townie as possible. Saying what you did ruins the natural reaction we were all looking for.

^ That? I don't even count that.

Anyone who's not a complete moron knows to respond to a wagon on them carefully and as townily as possible as either alignment.

Your "coaching" case is complete, unabashed bullshit, and letting everyone know my read on a player and that I fully intend to defend that player if I think their reaction isn't scummy ... isn't scummy. As Freud said, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

------

But yeah, as Pine BRILLIANTLY PREDICTED ,

I still don't think Peabody is scum.

It just doesn't add up right.

If I stuck Peabody's iso #13 and #14 in a vacuum, hellz yeah I'd think he was scummy.

But the fact of the matter is, we have to look at the bigger picture.

If Peabody is scum, Trendall is more likely town than Peabody's scumbuddy, and I will absolutely eat my hat if Trendall is town.

There's just no way. I will accuse the mod of lying about the flip before I will believe a Town!Trendall flip.

But even regardless of Trendall's alignment,

I don't see any motivation for Scum!Peabody to unvote at that point that makes sense.

A smart Scum!Peabody probably would have bussed Scum!Trendall super hard because at that point Trendall's wagon looked pretty close to inevitable, and if he was going to not vote his buddy I would think any scum with a lick of sense would have avoided voting and then unvoting. Likewise, a smart Scum!Peabody probably would have kept his vote on a Town!Trendall and then lurked the rest of day and worried about washing his hands of the mislynch vote tomorrow (probably by pushing my mislynch next given that so many people seem to be at the very least okay with the idea).

This leaves the very obvious possibility that, maybe, Scum!Peabody just isn't very smart. And maybe that's a possibility, but I like to think I'm pretty good at reading people and I don't think he's an idiot, or at least not the kind of idiot that would vote/unvote a popular wagon and then give such a weak reason for doing so as scum.

I've got a strong gut feeling of, "it's such a lame reason it

must

be true" going on with that whole "I unvoted because my vote was anti-town" thing.

Next, we've got Pine.

If Peabody is scum, Pine is probably not scum with him.

Similarly, I will eat my hat if Pine isn't scum, but I'm a little less sure of him than I am of Trendall at the moment. Pine has not only sheeped on cases but spent pretty much the entire game so far tunnelling on Peabody for what were, until very recently, pretty weak reasons, to the point that it got distracting.

I get the feeling the only reason he even bothered FOSing me when he said little or nothing about me before that

(despite me making it very clear I suspected him)

was to try to ingratiate himself with the crowd of people who think I'd be a good second or third choice for a lynch

(most of whom I think are town, so it definitely makes sense that scum!Pine would try to get in their good graces).

Then, there's the fact of how quickly the Peabody wagon sprung up and the Trendall wagon dissipated.

This makes a lot more sense if Peabody is town than if he's scum. If he's scum, then I'd be willing to bet that both of his buddies are probably on his wagon bussing him, and considering there's no way Pine is one of his scumbuddies given his and Peabody's earlier interactions and I have townish reads on everyone else on the wagon except for DarthYoshi, that probably means several of my town reads are wrong.

This is going to sound incredibly cocky, and I apologize in advance for that. (side note: geez, I end up apologizing for my cockiness in almost every game I've ever played, here and offsite. It's becoming a trend. e.e) But,

if Peabody is scum then, as I see it, at

least

four of my reads are dead, flat-out wrong, and I'm just NOT willing to accept that I've gotten that bad at this game.

Also, one more thing.

Peabody dropped something I view as a pretty strong town-tell in the early pages of the game

, and it's part of the reason I'm willing to continue defending him now even when half the game thinks both of us are scum. I wasn't going to say anything about my find, because if I tell people I have a secret town-tell, they want me to tell them what it is before they'll believe me, but if everyone knows what it is, it ceases to be a town-tell. But it's there, I definitely saw it, and I'll share it and why it works in post-game if we win.

----

I realize that, in all likelihood, no one is going to listen to a word I just said, at least not right now. Peabody will probably get mislynched, and if I'm actually on the right track I'll probably get NKed, or if I'm on the wrong track I'll probably get left alive to get mislynched Day 2 (and Trendall and Pine will lurk through the day and no one will particularly notice or care until it's too late). In that case, I ask one thing and one thing only:

if you're not willing to listen to me now, please for the love of whatever gods you believe (or don't) in, come back to this post when Peabody and/or I am dead. And then lynch Trendall and/or Pine at your earliest convenience.

/soapbox

[Valern]

Ehhhhh. I forgot to mention.

@Mod: V/LA tomorrow (I haven't been to bed yet, so I mean the 7th) and the 8th. I have out-of-state family in town and they obviously take priority over mafia games.

I will definitely check in if I have time, but I can't make any promises. :/

I also haven't forgotten about my promised case on DY. My post earlier was long enough

without

getting into all that. xD But yeah, that'll come if my read on him is still the same as it is now (possible third scum, but not nearly as scummy as Trendall or Pine, and tbh I'm not sure how much sense a Trendall/DY team makes so I'll have to sort that out in my head and probably do some re-reading) when I come back. I'm really hoping DY has responded to Peabody, Lucresia has posted something of actual worth, and Trendall's responded to my question on his stance on Peabody by then.

[Valern]

Hi there!

I'm technically off my V/LA but am waaaaaaaaay too tired to make a decent post right now.

Crazy: Hunting for scum motivations is WIFOM, really? Your whole post there is kinda weaaaak. Do we have to lynch Crazy!Scum again?

[Valern]

Oh Jesus. So many wrong reads. I'm sucking at this game. ._.

I definitely need to re-read in light of the new flips, but so far I am a hell of a lot more into a Peabody lynch now that Trendall and Pine have both lynched town, considering most of my reason for thinking he was town was based on the fact that he didn't fit in as scum with my (incorrect) scum reads.

I kind of doubt Pine tracked Peabody to the kill N0 because if I were him I would have just outted myself and traded my life for a guaranteed scum lynch, but since he's not me it's possible he breadcrumbed something to that effect. Will have to investigate in a bit.

Vote: Peabody

I'm not actually suspicious of DRK's flip-flopping close to the end, but then, I know both slots zhe flip-flopped on were/are town.

Very suspicious of ICE's not-so-subtle attempt at crumbing no power. I may need to take a second look at him.

[Valern]

Indeed.



I don't see anything in Pine's iso crumbing a scummy track result on Peabody.

Trendall Lynch voters

Valern

,

Erratus Apathos

, ICEninja,

RangeroftheNorth

,

crazypianist1116

, Quilford,

DarthYoshi

Peabody wagon, at the height of its power Day 1

DarthYoshi

,

crazypianist1116

,

RangeroftheNorth

,

Pine

,

Erratus Apathos

People who weren't on either wagon

Trendall

, Peabody (note: no vote out end of D1), DeathRowKitty (note: was voting Peabody at the end of D1), inhimshallibe (note: no vote out end of D1)

I'm mostly just putting the above here for future reference, and as a springboard to the below...

Probable scum brackets based on vote analysis, in Valern's not-so-humble opinion

Probably at least one scum in the people who abandoned the Peabody wagon to vote Trendall, regardless of Peabody's alignment (bussing, or hopping town-wagons, either way):

{CrazyPianist, RotN, Erratus Apathos}

If Peabody flips scum, at least one scum on only the Trendall wagon:

{

Valern

, ICEninja, Quilford}

At least one scum afraid to have a lynch vote out at the end of day one (

STRONG

emphasis on those not voting at all):

{

Trendall

,

Pine

, DeathRowKitty,

Peabody, inhimshallibe

}

assuming a three-man scumteam (balance, lol) the team that makes the most sense to me based on Vote Analysis alone is Crazy/Quilford and one of {Peabody, inhim}. I'll do my reading focusing on how coherent a team this makes but off the top of my head I recall that Romanus (who Crazy replaced) defended Lucresia (who Quilford replaced) for, IIRC, pretty much no reason when that wagon was going on early D1. Needs moar research.

I also totally forgot about DRK flopping to a useless Peabody vote at the end of the day. Scratch what I said in my earlier post; I was only thinking of the me/Trendall flopping.

[Valern]

Woah. I didn't realize how few votes we have to lynch today. Also, Peabody's last post very quickly reminded me why I had a town read on him most of D1 in the first place. Good finds.

unvote

While I support the wagon, I suggest no one else vote inhim for the moment. DRK's promised "more later", Crazy hasn't even posted yet, and we still have most of a week to go.

[Valern]

Re-reading is more or less complete.

VOTE: CrazyPianist

I have a hunch. I'm planning on elaborating on this vote, but first I need the mod to answer a question I've PMed him that may or may not prove relevant. In the meantime...

@Valern: I retract my claim about your unvote earlier. Your reasoning's pretty sound, although I still don't know what this secret super town tell on Peabody is all about.

I never posted anything in between your posts, and I'm really not seeing the jump in logic here. What changed in your view to make my unvote suddenly okay? It looks like you can't decide whether to subtly push for my lynch (while not even voting me) or attempt to buddy up to me.

[Valern]

unvote

I had this big long thing written up where I was trying to justify why I voted Crazy in the first place, but if I shove my ego out of the way, it could be most succinctly explained by simply stating that my "hunch" was actually just me being a moron and I interpreted something incorrectly. <.<

I still have some things I'm keeping an eye on Crazy for, but without that "hunch" it isn't good enough for me to keep my vote there.

In related news, I've done some reflecting on the game I played with Crazy!Scum since the flip in stance on me/defending of inhim and while I'm hesitant to give much weight to meta comparisons, I never saw Crazy defend his partner in that game, and certainly not so blatantly. When the heat turned up on Crazy's partner, Crazy distanced like hell and played uber-defensively. So if inhim flips scum, I'd actually be more inclined to say Crazy is probably town based on that (but if Crazy were independently scummy meta sure as hell wouldn't be enough to sway me away from lynching him).

On the other hand, Romanus (Crazy's slot) did that thing where he inexplicably defended Lucresia (Quilford's slot) early on, so if Quilford flips scum I'd definitely take a harder look at Crazy. (And Quilford probably is scum bussing his buddy imo. I really don't have anything concrete on Quilford but there are a

lot

of things about him that really twinge my gut the wrong way.)

I'm really not liking the lurking around DRK is doing, and if it continues much longer I think we should start a wagon on her to give her some motivation to post (or she should just replace out for someone who'll be more active if she's town).

Peabody removed his vote on inhim, and since I respect his cautiousness I'm not going to hop on the inhim wagon at the moment despite all three of the players who've been in that slot being incredibly useless and anti-town and, as a result, most likely scum. But I'm definitely going to move there if his posting doesn't get a hell of a lot more useful soon.

[Valern]

Quilford, you better post more than that before you leave.

What do you want me to post about?

A little detective work says you've been almost three times as active in [REDACTED], which started about the same time you replaced in here. You seem to have no trouble coming up with something to say in [REDACTED], but you have to ask what you should post about here?

[Valern]

EBWOP: Whoops, for some reason I thought I was already voting Quilford. Should probably fix that.

VOTE: Quilford

[Valern]

Is there any particular reason you're not willing to wait for inhim to at least claim?

[Valern]

Righto.

VOTE: inhimshallibe

[Valern]

Valern, you explicitly state that you don't want to hop on the inHim wagon unless his posting gets a hell of a lot more useful soon.

And it didn't. It's entirely likely that inhim only said that in order to stall the day further (if he had last thoughts to share, I would think he would have made a point of sharing them promptly, which he obviously chose not to do). Problem...?

+ I'm tired of hearing EA moan about how we're dragging the day out, tbqh. >.>

[Valern]

Woah woah woah. That's L-1 already, isn't it?

Eh. Announcing intent to hammer. Claim, Crazy.

(As much as I'd like to believe that stastically Crazy shouldn't be scum in games I'm in twice in a row, all the other hard data points to Crazy!scum.)

Excerpts from my overnight note-taking:

Probably at least one scum in the people who abandoned the

Peabody

wagon to vote

Trendall

, regardless of

Peabody

's alignment (bussing, or hopping town-wagons, either way):

{CrazyPianist, RotN, Erratus Apathos}

People who weren't on

inhim

wagon (

STRONG

emphasis on those not voting at all)

{crazypianist1116 (note: was voting Quilford at the end of D2),

ICEninja, DeathRowKitty, inHimshallibe

}

People who were on the

Trendall

wagon but off the

inhim

wagon (STRONG scum emphasis):

{crazypianist1116, ICEninja}

"Life List

inHim

ICE
EA
DRK

DarthYoshi
Valern

"

iso 9 - one of ICE, EA, DRK is probably a scumbuddy. Probably DRK, out of those.

"

Pine

, Peabody,

Trendall

- overtly scummy behavior, from poor reasoning, to lapses in logic/explanation, to suspicious voting behavior
Lucresia, Ranger, crazypianist - you aren't impressing much upon me, so into death stew you go. I really can't remember much of any impact that these players have had on this game."

iso 9 - if both scumbuddies are on the deathlist, there's probably one in each of these groups (+points to Peabody, +points to Quilford, Ranger, Crazy). NOTE: This is the first time

inhim

even mentions crazy. His first "real" post does mention Romanus' vote on

Pine

was bad though. He flips from having quoted and commented on Lucresia's posts several times to saying she didn't make an impression on him. ???

"I'd be floored if there were more than one scum in that 6 [on his town list]. I was willing to lynch ANYONE on the death list, get rid of the chaff. It wasn't so much listing scum as much as it was listing who wasn't town."

iso 16 -- Total and complete WIFOM here, but definitely worth keeping in mind. Was he telling the truth about only one scum being on the town list (him), or was he cheekily admitting that there were NO scum in the death list? If I go with my reads, probably more likely the former.

Crazy's vote on Quilford-- really bad in hindsight. That plus defense of

inhim

means Crazy's probably scum... again. Sadface. And then on top of that there was my crazy theory that Crazy changed his stance on me because someone in daytalk told him to... actually has more merit now despite the mod not answering me one way or the other about whether they have it.

[Valern]

So not one person had anything to say for the entire last 29 hours. Least of all, Crazypianist.

*twiddles thumbs*

[Valern]

I'm fine with massclaim. Popcorn?

If so I vote DRK goes first.

[Valern]

Screw it. We only have a week, and DRK is posting other places and not here. And I am

not

letting this turn into a stallfest.

Claim: VT
Popcorn: DeathRowKitty

If DRK hasn't claimed within 24 hours I propose a lynch.

[Valern]

Anyway, Valern is probably scum for his previous post.

Explain? I simply don't want MC to take 3-4 days, severely limiting the time we have to discuss claims/vote count analysis/post analysis/other info before deciding on a lynch. And the longer MC takes, the longer scum have to come up with a suitable fakeclaim.

I propose ICE also gets lynched if he takes longer than 24 hours to claim, and this should apply to anyone else who follows, as well. This needs to be speedy.

[Valern]

Soo...I'm clear! Way cool. I could ttly kill tonight and it wouldn't really change anything! I probably won't, but I can!

Actually, that gives me an idea.

What if we no lynch and then have you submit a kill on the person whom you suspect most to be scum? I mean, being town doesn't make a person right necessarily, but it

does

mean that we know you have town's interests at heart when you decide who to kill.

The only downside to this (but it's a pretty big downside if it's true) is if there's a Mafia Roleblocker who can kill and submit a roleblock at the same time. I think it's likely that our last scum (I'm presuming we only have one more for balance reasons) is a power role given that the two that have flipped were goons, and Roleblocker seems to be the most common mafia role given this site's meta, so this is definitely a concern. But I'll let those who've been here longer weigh the risks vs benefits of such a strategy.

Alternatively, we could just lynch ICE and be done with it. (Process of Elimination/Vote Analysis, GOGOGOGOGO!)

Points against lynching anyone else:

-RotN is pretty much in the clear due to voting patterns despite not saying anything I find particularly memorable
-DRK is in the clear due to role
-Quilford is probtown due to Lucresia's early claim, and voting/scumhunting habits (if he

is

scum, he's been bussing hardcore), and because I viewed his reaction to Erratus' emote at the end of one of the days (forget which one) as a towntell given that seemed to react to seeing it exactly the way I did, which was IIRC "oh shit, wtf, Erratus isn't scum, is he?" xD
-I'm town, but if you still need to be convinced you should

get your head out of your ass

probably ask someone else, as I'm obv-biased ^.^

Points for lynching ICE:

-VOTE ANALYSIS. DRK and ICE are the only people to have never been on a scum wagon at the point at which it is hammered. And again, DRK is clear, soooo~
-Romanus/Crazy slot's vote/unvote on ICE seems like an obv-bus/distancing manoeuvre in hindsight. He votes ICE for a bad reason and later unvotes, claiming that he "obviously had not read ICE's last post when I made [his post]" and "had composed it much earlier and then posted it without checking." But the post where he voted ICE was so short that I don't think this was actually the case, and I think he was backtracking, trying to come up with a reason for his bad vote/unvote that didn't scream "I'M DISTANCING FROM MY PARTNER, MMKAY"
-and then there's the reason I initially voted him in the first place, which is that he had a scummy overreaction to people voting him. This point is still valid.
-PEDIT: NK speculation in his above post. There is NO POINT to it and it only serves to pad his post and make it look like he has more to say with actual conviction behind it than he does.
-PEDIT: Quilford's points.

VOTE: ICEninja

Worst case scenario I'd be willing to die first as long as you guys promise me you'll lynch ICE when I flip town.

[Valern]

Yo, ICE. You seem to be focusing a lot on how the scum are thinking right now and what they thought over the last night.

[Valern]

Of course you are. Why don't you just let town!Ranger do all the mislynch sleuthwork for you, and then you just stroll in off your V/LA and vote me like that wasn't your plan all along.

And I'm not responding to you for the most part because there's no point in me responding to someone I know is scum except where it might be useful for non-scum to read it.

I do? I commented that scum made a poor night kill choice. Anything other than that? I've got a big spanking post there that you seemed to have ignored, that says virtually nothing of the sort. Are you trying also trying to throw dirt on me for things that aren't there?

I'm guessing the last scum is a role blocker, and probably bussed one or both scum buddies. I'm going to take a close look at the votes for scum, particularly of those that seemed weak or overly convinced.

Peabody was a slight scum read, so I'm glad that scum took care of him for us. They must have had some kind of power role read on him, because I don't think we could have taken him to lylo, and that night kill really did us a service.

Scum knows that I need to die today. DRK is going to be night killed out of necessity, and Ranger isn't going to be lynched. Whichever between QUilford and Valern is scum knows that they HAVE to take the other to lylo to win.

You've been "sitting on the fence" about me the whole game, knowing that I have been working my ass off for this town but afraid to say anything that would change your "read" from earlier in the game. There is scum motivation in never bothering to really reanalyze your read on someone.

Funny how all of that disappeared because he said "what?" to Erratus's evil face. In fact, Valern is now saying that Quilford is probably town based on his voting patterns, when earlier he stated that Quilford is probably scum busing.

It's called "gut". It's called "town can do complete 180s on their reads with no risk because they don't have to leave their mislynch prospects as open as possible like scum do." It doesn't have to make sense to you for it to be valid to me. And you know, you can throw dirt on me all you want for flipping on my Quilford read and flipping from neutral-ish to scum for you as well, but the fact of the matter is there is

no scum motivation

for me to suddenly be calling someone town who would be a much easier mislynch to push were I scum, especially now that we're down to 5 people.

If there was any possibility of there being two scum left, you might have a point. But there isn't without this game being imbalanced as hell, so no. Your dirt-throwing has no merit.

[Valern]

Here's where Quilford!Scum doesn't add up for me, and I kept quiet about this for long enough to make sure that this is really the case.

I am only willing to lynch ICE today (or myself, in order to prove my towniness and ensure that I get listened to and ICE gets lynched tomorrow.)
Quilford appears to only be willing to lynch ICE today, and has hardly said one word about me, the only other viable lynch for the day from his perspective. (PEDIT: And also seems to be willing to sacrifice himself.)

ICE, on the other hand, is the only person of dubious alignment who is keeping his options open. And as the last scum left, that's because he has no

choice

but to "suspect" both of us.

Quilford is not acting like the last scum the day before LYLO. ICE is.

Lynch it plz.

[Valern]

No.

No no no no no no no.

We are NOT losing this because you two are too blinded to see the obvious ICE scum in front of you. IT'S SO FUCKING OBVIOUS A WOEFJaWGJeLKGjLKSGJ WLKGJ.

Vote me out. Watch me flip town. And then DO AS I FUCKING SAY and kill ICE.

DO IT.

vote: Valern

[Valern]

/prodded

Working right now, real post later.

[Valern]

Well that self-wagon went nowhere fast.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ICE

Nothing's changed. ICE is scum. Quilford is not scum. I am willing to die today if need be in order to be listened to about ICE.

[Valern]

I don't care how close we are to deadline, ICE trying to rush DRK's decision is scummy. DRK's vote needs to have as much thought put into it as possible (except when it comes to the point of WIFOMing oneself to death, but I just hope DRK knows the meaning of Occam's Razor.) I'm sure DRK knows better than to forget about the deadline.

Quilford is still town.
ICE is still scum.

I hope it doesn't take another mislynch (or two) to prove this. =(

[Valern]

GJ bringing up my weakest point on him being town like it's my only reason for thinking he's town. (PEDIT: mostly @ICE)

Lucresia claimed hella early, and as that was discussed at the time that's probably a towntell. There's an ongoing I've been watching in which Lucresia did the exact same lurk-a-ton-and-get-replaced thing, and while that slot hadn't flipped last time I checked on that ongoing it's enough to make me think her lurky play wasn't an alignment tell.

Quilford came in and singled out Crazy and Pine for being scum at a time when Crazy really particularly being suspected. Again, emphasis, there wasn't a whole lot of heat on Crazy/Romanus slot when he made his initial post on him. That doesn't say distancing/bussing to me, because as scum it's generally a bad idea to bus your scumbuddies unnecessarily. There was a lot of lurking going on with his slot in the midgame, but hell, he certainly wasn't the only one (hi, DRK). Crazy quite possibly tried to save Inhim at the last minute by jumping on to my Quilford bandwagon (as DRK pointed out), which, even if Quilford

was

scum, certainly wasn't a smart move given that whatever scum is left is probably a PR (ie, Crazy would have been sacrificing a PR to save a goon).

You are the only person who has never been on a scum wagon at the time a lynch occurred, aside from DRK. If you recall I suspected DRK before MC happened, because aside from being (now)confirmed DRK had far scummier play than anyone else here. You have been defensive most of the day today, whereas Quilford has been more aggressive (and as I believe I stated earlier today, I think too much time spent on self-defense is a scumtell.)

I also think it's important to look at who has been killed and what their stances were. DarthYoshi was probably killed for suspecting inhim/crazy. Erratus died N2, who had probably the best vote on the early ICE wagon, had strong convictions on the Inhim wagon, and called people out for stalling the game around the time just for the sake of "more information!" (including ICE, but also myself, although I placed the hammer on that wagon after he said that, because fuck it if he wasn't 100% right that we probably weren't going to get anything else useful out of that day). Peabody died N3, shortly after bringing this up:

@ICEninja, in my analysis of day 1, I noticed that you withheld your vote from Lucresia though you were suspicious, but you did vote both Erratus (based on lying to your questions) and on lynchking (due to his single 'scummy' vote post). Lucresia had a good case against her, and I'm wondering why, though you voiced suspicion, you voted for two other people who have less evidence against them rather than never placing a vote on Lucresia?

I also noticed that you attacked Romanus for voting you based on false premises. After Romanus agreed that the bandwagon was on false premise, he unvoted. However, you asked a question:

ICEninja 139 wrote:You haven't given any reason for no longer finding me scum, especially considering how you still feel like I did what you accused me of doing. It looks like a hasty retreat from a bandwagon that is falling apart.

This question looks forced. If Romanus unvoted because he found his vote was on a bad premise, why would he still find you as scum? I believe Romanus' reason for unvoting was good.

In my reread of the case against the Lucresia slot, I realized that there was some merit behind it which makes me wonder why ICEninja never jumped on that wagon. I cannot get a good read on Quilford yet.

In fact, all of D3 he was probably the person to say the most in a negative light about ICE, who of course during the night would have been the only scum left at that point. Hmm.

Aside from DarthYoshi having a thing against me, none of these are people who have particularly suspected me or Quilford IIRC. And sure, there are other reasons than "ohnoez they haet me" for scum to kill someone, but it's almost certainly a factor unless someone drops a PR tell or something.

Normally I would go to the trouble of bolding my main points and all that shit, but I'm feeling lazy right now so instead you get a wallpost.

[Valern]

There's a difference between speculating on what scum have already done, and what speculating on what they have yet to do, or speculating on what they've done and being like "oh boy, I'm sure glad they did that".

Yes, I've looked at the case, and I don't think it is "damn strong". But evidently no one thinks my case against you or for quilford town is "damn strong" either, so.......

[Valern]

Well fuck, you're right. Ugh.

I was about to go to sleep, too. >.<

I'll try to stay up a little longer and if DRk hasn't popped into the thread by the time I simply can't stay awake any longer, I'll hammer to prevent a no-lynch.

PEDIT: ohai, DRK.

I'm going to sleep, then. Hopefully DRK makes the right decision. =/

[Valern]

You say "over-convinced" like it's a bad thing. I used process of elimination, VCA, and a little bit of gut intuition to determine who was scum and who wasn't. So, apparently, did Quilford. And neither of us was listened to and he got killed for it.

You're definitely scum, but from where I'm standing the only person whose opinion really matters is Ranger, so I'll abstain from voting and wait for his thoughts.

Reiterating some VCA:

Trendall

lynch -- Valern,

Erratus Apathos

, ICEninja, RangeroftheNorth,

crazypianist1116

,

Quilford

,

DarthYoshi

Inhim

lynch --

Erratus Apathos, Quilford,

RangeroftheNorth,

Peabody,

Valern

Crazy

lynch -- RangeroftheNorth,

Peabody, Quilford,

crazypianist1116

Quilford

lynch -- RangeroftheNorth, ICEninja,

DeathRowKitty

RangeroftheNorth has been on every lynch wagon, town and scum. He breaks even at

2

-

2

.

Valern has been on the Trendall wagon and the Inhim wagon. Zhe breaks even at

1

-

1

.

ICEninja has been on every town wagon and none of the scum wagons. His votes are heavily scum-biased at

2

-

0

.

I shouldn't have to tell you who comes out of the VCA looking the worst.

[Valern]

No, it's really not.

Good job trying to get me to turn on obvtown, though.

(More in-depth post either today or tomorrow.)

[Valern]

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. AHAHAHA. HAHAHAHAHA. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
























Just kidding. I'm town.

Originally I was gonna say I was gonna twiddle my thumbs for a couple days and think about it, but... nah.

VOTE: ICE

ICE isn't town. No way, no how.

[Valern]

Nuh-uh.

Really?

[Valern]

Well damn. Grats, I guess.

[Valern]

My "towntell" on Peabody was 100% gambit, btw. I was just

that

confident in my townread on Peabody. It was convenient for me that the only person to see through it and really push me on the point (DY) died soon afterward.

I am pretty good at figuring out who is town. I am a lot worse at figuring out who is scum. (And it didn't help that I'm in multiple other games on another account, so my time was stretched thinner than it should have been.)

I wish I was better at convincing people of my town reads. It took me posting a huge freaking wall (that included reads I was mostly wrong about) of why Peabody was town to change anyone's opinions there, and I wasn't able to convince anyone Quilford was town, which was probably mostly because my town-read on him was almost pure gut when it came down to it.

I also apologize to ICE for tunnelling on him so hard the last few days. =( There are quite a few things I considered scumtells that I need to ... not consider scumtells any more. (Although ^^^ that, above, was one reason in a long list that made me think he was more likely scum. Pointing out during the course of a game that you're terrible scum does not look good.)

Does anyone have any suggestions/advice for me?

[Valern]

I'm very glad to know I was considered for the scum kill a few times. That means I couldn't have been doing

that

badly.

Range, any suggestions for my earlier play? I feel like I'm really bad at D1, and that set me up to be suspected and somewhat on the defensive for the rest of the game.