Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Mr. Flay]

I'm here but it will take me a bit to read up on the thread. Back later tonight with some initial reactions.

[Mr. Flay]

Dodecamafia was the first game I ever ran here. It didn't have great balance, and yeah it probably wasn't strictly "Normal" although the only really weird balance issue was the critical successes/failures.

(Great now we have two of them... )

Two what?

When is the last time you played in a mini? Why did you choose to replace into this mini?

1. The game has been waiting for a replacement since October, but is only on Day One and won't require acres of back-reading, with 'only' 26 pages.
   
2. I've never played a Mini Normal, actually. I've played lots of theme/mutation/experimental games, though...
   
3. I like what I've seen of both the playerlist and the moderator so far.
   
4. I just got nuked in my last Mini (literally) and have room to play in a few games. Since I had to back out of Newbie 465, I've replaced into two other games this week, to help alleviate the backlog.

More importantly, why do you

care

, Adel? I haven't started reading the game yet, but the welcome I've gotten so far has been decidedly odd...

[Mr. Flay]

The game ... is only on Day One and won't require acres of back-reading, with 'only' 26 pages.

Well, THAT was a damn lie...*trout*

Okay. Awesome thread, lots of crunchy posts. Korlash should stop with the kneejerk posts and make more sense, but he's claimed Roleblocker, so I don't understand why there's still four votes on him. -1 for Miztef in pointing that fact out "in case anyone missed it", though.

Adel needs to stop with the Crystal Meth theories, though. Seriously, your overconfidence is going to be the doom of you, if not the entire town. I don't necessarily think you're scum, because your predecessor was a non-entity, but this overly analytical style isn't doing you any favors. Your "meta" on me finally joining a Mini Normal is

completely

off-topic.

Setael is a saint for replacing Anata112, but her role is still scum.

Vote: Setael

- abandoning one game in favor of another while being pressured is a

major

scumtell.

[Mr. Flay]

Correct, I was referring to Anata112's appearance elsewhere after dropping this game (I know it's an ongoing game, but it's behavior that was going on while she still technically had the role).

Mr. Flay: in the newbie games you can recall, and on a percentage basis, who is more likely to drop out of a game on day 1: a town-aligned player with a wagon, or a scum-aligned player with a wagon?

I don't know the percentage chance on that question; luckily though this isn't a drop-and-disappear, but an actual drop-and-reappear. That's much more likely to be a scum action, as I can only really think of a handful of anecdotal cases where a pro-town player asked for replacement because of a wagon (they're much more likely to self-vote/self-hammer, on the other hand).

Maybe I'm getting old, but "Mafia Roleblocker" is a newer type of role, and not as common as some players here would like you to believe. It's true that Mafia Roleblocker is a much more purely-beneficial role for its side to have than Pro-Town Roleblocker, because the pro-town type has to deal with not blocking cops, docs, etc. Still, it's testable.

I'd like to see some additional analysis from Flay and Satael and Sudo_Nym and curiouskarmadog and Abstract Actuary and jerubbaal. soon.

I've got more analysis from my read of the thread, but I'm going to hold my cards to my vest for right now.

[Mr. Flay]

I choose not to reveal my thoughts at this time, but I will encrypt them to reveal later, after Mr. Flay, Satael, Sudo_Nym, curiouskarmadog, Abstract Actuary, jerubbaal chime in.

...

If I had known you were going to do that again, I wouldn't have replaced into this game. In fact, based on your behavior in Communiqué, I can't be certain that you are not communicating in a manner forbidden by your role (i.e. day-talking). Therefore I request that you decode that message immediately or ask for replacement so that the encrypted block becomes irrelevant to the game.

[Mr. Flay]

Warning:

This post is going to be almost entirely meta. I'll talk about this specific game in a follow-up post.

My conclusion is that NabakovNabakov is more likely to include a Mafia roleblocker than a normal roleblocker.... oh, wait. I take that back. unvote

I'm not nearly as confident as I was before. I think I just talked myself into giving Korlash the benefit of the doubt.

Thank you for admitting your falliability. That gives me hope that we can both continue to play this game.

Thou Shalt Not Outguess The Mod is one of the cardinal rules of playing Mafia; no matter what the tendency has been for Mini Normals or NabNab in the past, it has little to no bearing on what he did in THIS game. In fact, it's just as likely that a moderator will change his mind based on past experience, or try a new scenario, than always go with the same setups that have been used in the past. I hate Cop+Doc combos, but that doesn't mean I won't use them in my games from time to time, just to avoid being metagamed. One of the players in another ongoing game right now is trying to utilize something I said in Mafia Discussion to prove something about the setup of that game; I've often argued EXACTLY the opposite in public of what I've done in secret (but not always, obviously). This is why trying to reduce the game to statistics and number-crunching is so dangerous.

Why did I join this game, a Mini Normal, for the first time ever? It has nothing to do with NabNab offering me a choice role, which is the only thing I can think of would motivate Adel's insistence on knowing "why". It boils down to three simple things: the game needed a player for over two weeks, I respected the moderator, and I respected the playerlist (including Adel, who I have never played with). If you think I'm

afraid

of you, Adel, I'm 'afraid' you have another thing coming. I initially thought you yourself were alarmed by my presence in the game (when did Mini Normals become so newbie-heavy, anyway?) and trying to discredit/throw suspicion on me for totally meta reasons.

Now, about the crypto thing. I find robust cryptography to be completely against the ethical standards of Mafia because it removes one of the primary dynamics of the game: consequences for your actions. If I, as a power role, can claim the results of every action at the beginning of each Day, and then breadcrumb by encryption key and/or reveal it all at the endgame, that is game-breaking. If I can provide my Mason/Mafia partner with my encryption key and engage in Daytime Talk, that is game-breaking. If I can provide the checksum of my role PM and therefore confirm my role as Townie to other townies, that is game-breaking. It doesn't matter that MOST uses for cryptography benefit the Town more than the Scum (for instance, the once-proposed Day-One-Mass-Claim-via-Blowfish-Algorithm),

it's no longer Mafia

. And I won't play such a game, at least not without advance warning

(I've played Time Travel, Checkmate, Mafia Mafia, Unknown Role, RPS, Methodical Mafia and M.A.D., so saying "never" is probably foolish...)

. So you can refuse to decrypt the single instance here if you wish, but if you do it again, I'm gone from this game. That's a simple promise, not a threat.

[Mr. Flay]

I just came across this post by Mr. Flay.
(snip)
There is a significant contradiction there I would like an explanation for.

The simple answer is that my reaction last night was knee-jerk, and that I had already articulated my opinions on Cryptography in Mafia Discussion, so I felt it was unnecessary to get into a meta-discussion here. The very real possibility of it affecting this game in ways not explicitly prohibited by the rules was the first thing to come to mind here. Your reluctance to abandon it made me expand on my case.

I still don't want to give my full analysis, for the very basic reason that it will affect observations of certain player interactions that are better off left until we know more on Day Two. At this point, I would support a lynch of GunslingerKB (who is lurking hardcore and irrational to boot, and thus not helping the town), Miztef (who has been inconsistent and illogical), or Setael/Anata112 (for reasons already mentioned). In addition, both of the former candidates displayed a particular reluctance to unvote Korlash, who now has 0 votes again by my count.

[Mr. Flay]

I just came across this post by Mr. Flay.
(snip)
There is a significant contradiction there I would like an explanation for.

The simple answer is that my reaction last night was knee-jerk, and that I had already articulated my opinions on Cryptography in Mafia Discussion, so I felt it was unnecessary to get into a meta-discussion here. The very real possibility of it affecting this game in ways not explicitly prohibited by the rules was the first thing to come to mind. Your reluctance to abandon it made me expand on my case.

I still don't want to give my full analysis, for the very basic reason that it will affect observations of certain player interactions that are better off left until we know more on Day Two. At this point, I would support a lynch of GunslingerKB (who is lurking hardcore and irrational to boot, and thus not helping the town), Miztef (who has been inconsistent and illogical), or Setael/Anata112 (for reasons already mentioned). In addition, both of the former candidates displayed a particular reluctance to unvote Korlash, who now has 0 votes again by my count.

It's time to wrap up Day One and move on, frankly.

[Mr. Flay]

Argh. Stupid CPU-quota errors.

[Mr. Flay]

Setael/Anata112 can wait.

Unvote, Vote: Miztef

- I'd forgotten about the "I claim Citizen" thing even though it was in my notes when my computer rebooted (thank all the little electronic gods for Autosave).

The opening post says that the generic role PM says "Townie". I think Miztef screwed up his first claim and later clarified, and now says he doesn't mind being lynched to gain information. I'm willing to call that bluff.

[Mr. Flay]

I believe that's L-1, though I'll wait for official confirmation from NN.

[Mr. Flay]

Some of us have lives. I was at my uncle's wedding yesterday.

I didn't even realize that Day had dawned yet, and I've been out of pocket most of the weekend.

Traditionally, the hammer vote brings suspicion upon it's caster, but Miztef had a big enough wagon that it's hard to say too much about Jitsu that couldn't be said about more.

Huh? Jitsu didn't hammer, Adel did. I get the feeling she was trying to 'trap' me into the lynch, which is a null-tell from my POV: gambits and calculated risks are a big part of Adel's playstyle.

Adel, why do you want ME in particular to advise Korlash on whether or not to reveal his night choice?

[Mr. Flay]

@flay: 'cause i thought he would listen to you, what is your advice for him?

Unfortunately, my advice is going to seem trite: Only claim your results if it will prove/disprove someone else's guilt or innocence (such as claiming to have investigated X when you blocked them that night, for example). Otherwise, the only reason we need to know your past choices is if you're about to die.

I do not like Gunslinger's continued lurking one bit, and it seems to be actively cultivated, because he hasn't been replaced.

Vote: Gunslinger

- Post or Perish.

I'm neutral on Korlash's motivations as yet, but I'm still leaning toward the 'stoopid townie' interpretation (no offense, you just remind me of that type of player).

Adel, what two qualities separate the Miztef wagon from the Korlash wagon in your view?

[Mr. Flay]

Also, the mafia would know whether his claim was false or not, so I would think they would kill him if his claim was true. There are a couple other explanations, but I find none of them likely. If there was a chance to kill someone with a power role (is roleblocker considered a power role?) this early, especially someone under as much suspicion as Korlash and unlikely to receive a doc-protect, I would think someone would take the chance.

This post makes no sense to me. Nightkilling power roles is not a bad plan, but getting town to help you lynch such a transparently scummy/bad player is usually better from a Mafia perspective. Mexal was a much more obvious choice, as his logic was largely heralded as unassailable D1.

[Mr. Flay]

Adel, please provide evidence from closed games that you are an asset in the endgame as a pro-town player. From your wiki I only see one game won as a living townie, and a 30% win rate overall, which means you're more dangerous as scum (50% win rate overall). Therefore if you live to endgame, we should kill you.

---

See how misleading statistics can be? I think you're earnest (at least so far), but you're

really

irritating and jumping to conclusions based on flimsy evidence. "3 is not several" - whaaa?? That's your case?!?

[Mr. Flay]

he was creating a strawman argument to undermine the use of statistics as evidence. it was not a sincere or earnest case.

Reductio ad Absurdum, actually. Your over-reliance on your "statistics" is what I'm objecting to. I frequently think you're insightful, and I'm not even gunning for your lynch here, but I want you to stop trying to reduce this to a numbers game and work on the

game

, not the meta.

Speaking of which, I'm intrigued by CKD's observation about Korlash's "lurking in plain sight". I'm trying to sift out in my brain how we can test his claim....

[Mr. Flay]

Dude.. go meta me or something... This is how I play... Every game...

So which is it, do we have no life for meta-ing you, or should we meta you more often?

I find it is an awesome strategy. Firstly, if someone wants to build a case they have to wade through tons of fluff. (Good strategy for both town and scum)

Secondly, It also gives me that "idiot town" look that even you have mentioned. I get by with that claim almost every game. (Again, good for both town and scum)

By all means please question me. But don't think that what I am doing is such an obvious scumtell... Cause it really isn't...

Your first two paragraphs are damning enough, really. Strategies that make you harder to read are not necessarily pro-town, because it means we either have to waste a Cop investigation on you every game, or lynch you to discover the truth. Better if you can show ways in which you are helpful town and avoid either of those scenarios.

I think the 585/644 thing is useful information, but more importantly I'm becoming convinced that Korlash is not an asset to the town, and may indeed be a hindrance.

Unvote, Vote: Korlash

- I'd still prefer to string up Gunslinger today, but the will is not there from other people apparently (which is disturbing to me).

More people need to post in this game than just Adel, ckd, Korlash, Jitsu, and myself!

[Mr. Flay]

Will be mostly absent for the next several days due to the holiday. I'm comfortable leaving my vote on Korlash through that time, however.

Setael: Search, Search for Author: Korlash, Category:Mafia Games, Display results as: Posts

[Mr. Flay]

Setael was 5th on Korlash's wagon, and Korlash went down with Setael as his vote-target. Interesting...

I'd say Adel is extremely unlikely to be Korlash's partner. Jitsu I'm ambivalent about based on the dawn-post above, and jerubbal threw the hammer awfully fast IMO. Will need to reread...

[Mr. Flay]

Why is Sudo cleared for you, Adel? Why are you taking a backseat?

[Mr. Flay]

vote: Mr. Flay

post or perish.

show us your cards.

The hell, you're STILL after my goat? Stop bandwagoning and make your own case, you're better than this. I repeat, "Why are you willing to let Sudo drive, if you are not clearing him?"

And here, in the beginning of this day, he' doesn't even list Gunslinger among his suspicious persons or even mention the possible relevance of him leaving the game.

Guess what - Gunslinger is being replaced. There's NO REASON to suspect that he asked for replacement, since the mod confirmed in-thread that he hadn't picked up the last prod before Nightfall. Therefore, much of Gunslinger's behavior can be attributed to simply Not Being Present, rather than Active Lurking or Actual Scumminess. That's why I'm not mentioning him at present; there's

no point

until we get to hear from his replacement, unless you're advocating lynching him before NabakovNabakov finds a replacement? Yeah, I didn't think so. I'm not clearing him, by any means, but he's not a profitable line of inquiry at this moment.

Anyone who thinks I'm this transparent as scum REALLY needs to check out my past games, or get their scum-meter calibrated. I'm known for at least two things that make the current bandwagon suspicious: Throwing partners under the bus (in which case there was no reason for me to wait for CKD to point out Korlash's lie), and overly analytical posts (in which case the supposed "framing" of Setael is laughable).

FOS: jerubbaal, Jitsu,

and to a much lesser extent AA and Adel. However at present I'm happiest with a

Vote: Setael

, because the idea of a "clever" Korlash framing her makes me giggle.

[Mr. Flay]

Note: the above post is without rereading Day One yet, but I felt the need to respond to the nonsensical bandwagon that's growing here, first.

[Mr. Flay]

I want to hear from Flay

QFT; so do I actually.

Sorry guys. I've been busy trying to get a dozen other things done this week, and this game slipped to second-tier. I'll try and get my thoughts posted up this afternoon, after lunch.

[Mr. Flay]

Okay, 6 hours of reading and four days late, here's what I think:

1. The Setael wagon is WAY too convenient. Setael essentially spotted something everyone else missed in 521, but held onto it until L-2? That's weird behavior, whether you're scum or town.
   Unvote
   for now.
2. Adel stands a *small* chance of being Korlash' scumbuddy; she could have been throwing him under the bus from the word go, although that's unorthodox. I happen to believe she's wrong about jerubbaal, and we now know she was wrong about Miztef. For now I'll chalk it up to crystalline logic (she's actually ranked most-likely-to-be-town in my notes).
3. Vote: Abstract Actuary
   - multiple insinuations that Korlash is just a townie D1, even deflecting suspicion on him in post 79 while attacking jerubbaal AND speculating on the number/composition of the Mafia!?! Post 239 shows AA finally unvoting Korlash and jumping to... Miztef. Furthermore, even as late as 614 he is still defending Korlash, and lobbying to lynch Miztef (now known to be town) despite the fact that he himself unvoted once the replacement parade arrived. 815 has an incredibly sketchy suspicion on me for helping frame Setael... Post 824 is tricky, because he was probably already posting it when NabNab mentioned Oman's imminent arrival 3 minutes earlier, in 823. The only other player to 'miss' Oman's arrival is CKD in 826, but he practically bankrolled the Korlash wagon, so that doesn't seem relevant.
4. Jitsu seems moderately pro-town, though he had some "confusion" sorting out what all the meta was about with Korlash. People
   were
   being terribly obtuse about it, which is reasonable given the earlier warning/threats of modkill for talking about ongoing games.
5. CKD's feud with Setael seems real. He started of my list scummy as hell, but it's hard to argue with the way he shot Korlash down. If he's scum, he's good at it, no lie there.
6. No bloody read on Oman
   née Gunslinger
   yet. I don't like that his joke vote on CKD stayed there for so long, though.

This is really stream-of-consciousness, so I'll probably have more in the morning, but for now I need to sleep a few hours before work.

[Mr. Flay]

Short answer: Upon re-reading the entire thread, there seemed to be a LOT of wagon-pushing on Anata/Setael. Some of that is due to lurking an actual scumminess, of course, but Adel had a good point with her "the Miztef wagon and the Korlash wagon have some crucial differences" observation. I'm not unwilling to lynch Setael anymore, but I have a feeling some of her detractors may be Korlash' buddies instead. So I went looking for the less obvious people...

As for jerubbaal, I'd like to play that one a little close to the vest for now, but I'll expand a bit more when I get home in front of my notes once more.

[Mr. Flay]

(snip)

This is the first post where I have some trouble with the basis of Flay's reasoning. I believe the contradiction was well established by this point, yet Flay seems reluctant to lynch Korlash. He finds it necessary to make it clear that, if Korlash is a townie, he's a lousy townie (which is absolutely true), and this seems to be a more central reason for Flay's vote than Korlash's lie. It seems like a dumb, live townie is usually better than a dumb, dead townie. The fact that Korlash's playstyle is a hindrance to him being helpful to the town is not a good basis for lynching. His lie, however, is.

Actually, being a hindrance to the town is more of a justification for lynching than lying/being mistaken about whether or not you know Mafia Roleblocker is a possible role. Given a choice, I will ALWAYS choose to meta players based on the game I am playing, rather than other games/other players' games. I recognize that people can and do change their playstyle from game to game, so the strongest factor I have to rely on here is their play here.

Day One, it is almost impossible to find a truly scummy scum to lynch. Therefore you're generally better off eliminating someone who is not going to be an asset to the game. You gain information about who is willing to lynch this person, correlate that with the lynchee's actual alignment, and strengthen the town's position for eventual endgame. Korlash meets all of those criteria, independent of whether or not the Mafia RB thing happened to be an actual lie or not (have you looked at his death scene, by chance?)

Also, he seems set on Gunslinger as the lynch, despite the strength of the case on Korlash. Once Gunslinger disappears, however, Flay drops any push he had against Gunslinger and says that his actions are explained by Not Being Present, not necessarily lurking. However, pushing to lynch someone against whom the primary charge is lurking in the face of a case where a lie has been reasonably well established does not make sense. Gunslinger lurked like mad, Korlash lied. The case against Korlash is clearly better. Why then, Flay do you still state that you would prefer a Gunslinger lynch to a Korlash lynch? (I would actually appreciate an answer to this)

Guilty as charged. I will pursue

lurkers

to the ends of the earth, because I feel very strongly that it is the players' responsibility to punish lurking when it does not help the town; mods are only responsible for dealing with Vanished Players. But once GunslingerKB went from Active Lurker (posting just enough to stay alive, albeit mostly with crap logic) to Vanished Player, he became less important to lynch. Again, no one has

proven

that Gunslinger lied about being a Mafia Roleblocker, only that he lied about whether or not he knew that there was a Mafia Roleblocker role possible.

Regarding 881, the turn seems very sudden. I am confused at the logic behind point 1. I was not under the impression that Setael's discovery of Korlash's contradiction in-thread was something that she was deliberately holding on to. Also, if you understood Set to be deliberately holding back information, why does that make you unvote her? I simply don't understand the line of reasoning here.

I'm also curious what came of the line of reasoning that you began in 643, that Anata's dropping and coming back were a major tell? It seems to me to be a big point against Set that no one is acknowledging any more. Have you abandoned this as a major tell? Adel disagrees with your pretty much right away, after a brief misinterpretation, but the idea still seems to hold some water. I'm kind of surprised you dropped it so quickly when Adel disagreed.

Oman has already touched on this, but the wagon on Setael today makes me nervous, despite the fact that I was one of the people on it. I wasn't going to mention the Newbie Game Anata was in being over, but it essentially destroyed the "Anata left because her role there was easier/more appealing" argument, unless she finds Vanilla Townie more appealing than whatever she has/had here. I'm still pissed about the abandonment, but it probably means it was in response to pressure, not role.

Also, I don't believe I ever claimed to know that Setael was holding back information deliberately, just that it makes no sense for her to do so as town OR scum. As scum, it would have been hard to pre-plan #521, because that was still Day One. It's possible Korlash-Setael-? talked N2 and set Korlash up to take the fall since he'd already argued himself into a corner, but I've got no evidence of that yet. So Setael fell to my second tier of choices, behind those who might be pushing for an opportunistic lynch.

I think Jitsu's questions in 882 are reasonably made, and the Flay's response does not really address the relevant points. In general, many of my problems with Flay have to do with an unwillingness on his part to address the relevant points. This confuses me, as I understood you to be a very experienced player. I like very much the sentiment of looking at the less visible players (I'll have to go back and re-read AA to evaluate the argument here, on a first read it seems to hold some water), but you just seem to be all over the place, Flay. Perhaps you're doing something I don't get, but your lines of reasoning this game have made little sense to me.

That's fair, and I'll be making a series of replies to follow-up questions on this page. I tend to post as much of my thoughts as possible, and my suspicions tend to bounce around a lot, hoping to shake something loose. I probably move my vote more than the average scummer, as I like to see what wagon-pressure does.

More to follow...

[Mr. Flay]

@Flay - I understand that dropping isn't scummy in and of itself, but I didn't understand your pressure on Gunslinger to be a post or perish approach. You seemed fixated on him as the best case for the day, beyond even what had been caught regarding Korlash. I'm not sure how getting a replacement changes the case on Gunslinger, aside explaining some of his lack of activity. If his lack of activity was the only reason you were so hot on him day 2, I don't think that's sufficient reason, especially compared to the Korlash case.

I hope I've answered this now, but if I haven't, let me know. Gunslinger as Active Lurker is much scummier than Gunslinger as Vanished Player, although he doesn't become any less scummy for the time he

was

"present".

I really don't like what you're doing here. You go through and explain your own tendencies as scum and then describe exactly how you don't meet those tendencies this time around.

I'm known for at least two things that make the current bandwagon suspicious: Throwing partners under the bus (in which case there was no reason for me to wait for CKD to point out Korlash's lie), and overly analytical posts (in which case the supposed "framing" of Setael is laughable).

Saying "This is what I do when I'm scum, and I'm not doing that now, so I must not be scum" is hardly a valid argument. The fact that you are self-aware enough to identify your own foibles as scum suggests that you are smart enough to adjust those tendencies when necessary.

I'm not saying it's impossible for me to defeat my own meta; far from it. I'm saying I've shown tendencies in the past to play at a better skill level than this supposed strategy indicates, so it wouldn't make much sense for me to take a step backwards. Thus, it's unlikely, and laughable from my POV.

[Mr. Flay]

AA, who do you think might be Setael/Korlash' third? Why do you think there are exactly three scum?

[Mr. Flay]

As I've said, my vote isn't even on Setael right now, I plan to do a big reread this weekend, and I was forced to "make a guess" based on an assumption I don't necessarily agree with.

Wait, so you're disavowing #831 now? What happened to your suspicions on Setael/Korlash??

Also, I apologize for the null-edit at the bottom of the last page, I hit the wrong button, and unfortunately have global edit power so I didn't realize it was going to show that message. I'm not cheating, honest.

[Mr. Flay]

Flay, I have another question, prompted by some of Jerub's observations. Why specifically is *today's* wagon on Setael making you nervous?

You started the wagon, then Adel jumped on quickly without much of a stated reason (at the time, at least), and then I voted (and later unvoted when someone (CKD?) told me she was at -2). If you believe that Adel is near the top of your pro-town list, and that I am moderately pro-town, then what is bothering you about today's wagon?.

Hmmm. Good point. I don't have a good answer yet (like I said, it was 5am when I finished my readthrough).

[Mr. Flay]

I would also like to say I disagree with Lynching Lurkers on Day Three of a mini.

That's nice. I disagree with allowing people to lurk for three whole days of a mini... you're still continuing the strategy of your predecessor, which is even weirder considering your usual posting patterns.

Unvote, Vote: Oman

[Mr. Flay]

interesting...so many people are saying things that they dont really mean...

Was this directed at me? I hope it's fair to say that I wasn't so much saying something I don't mean, as coming to a faulty conclusion. I stand by my notes, they just didn't show what I thought they did. So fair point to jerubbaal for noticing that.

[Mr. Flay]

In post 895, I noticed that Flay said:

Day One, it is almost impossible to find a truly scummy scum to lynch. Therefore you're generally better off eliminating someone who is not going to be an asset to the game. You gain information about who is willing to lynch this person, correlate that with the lynchee's actual alignment, and strengthen the town's position for eventual endgame. Korlash meets all of those criteria, independent of whether or not the Mafia RB thing happened to be an actual lie or not (have you looked at his death scene, by chance?)

It dawned on me what Flay as talking about here. Flay, you are implying above that this may be a limited reveal game, are you not? The mafia would already know if that were true, so I think it is safe to say it here.

It's possible. It's slightly more likely in my mind that Korlash was not actually a Mafia Roleblocker (which would make us lynching him for being a liar all the more amusing/ironic). It could be that the Mafia in general has a Roleblock ability as well as their kill ability, or that they don't really have one at all. There's just no

evidence

at present that Korlash was the MRB.

As for the case on Anata/Setael, it is still possible that she is Korlash's scum-buddy, and Korlash's apparent defense and distancing was just what it appeared to be. Since I like most of the people who joined on her wagon, I backed off my 'this wagon built too fast', but I still don't like AA's behavior in general this game. Right now, I'm more inclined to believe Oman is the lynch for today. It's still early though...

[Mr. Flay]

Okay, I'll bite: how does it seem different to you?

Um, did you not realize that Adel is voting YOU right now?

Yeah but it was a pressure wagon, so I didn't count it.

Interesting. Why don't you feel pressured?

[Mr. Flay]

Thank you for the response. Vote stands, though, you continue to fit the profile of Active Lurker.

[Mr. Flay]

I don't like the way Mr Flay wont take the vote off regardless of my large post concerning Adel.

Please explain how that fits an "active lurker"

Also, i'm Limited Acess across the entire site, so don't say over the next few days that I'm lurking. My home net died (talking to the Isp about it) and so I've got to use public computers instead.

You could have said you had limited access before this post.

Unvote

for now, but I still think you're being scummy.

Interesting how Jerubbaal is not correcting his earlier voting-format error.

Vote: jerubbaal

now that Oman has at least tried to explain himself - I don't even think jeru is scum with Adel, I think he's just plain opportunist.

Adel: Fuck you. Immovable votes are NOT pro-town, and the only thing preventing me from voting you at present is that I feel I have at least two stronger candidates for scum. You're crystallizing again. If you've got a case,

state it

.

[Mr. Flay]

I don't know if Adel's "I'm not moving" vote was just to produce a reaction, but it certainly did.

Quite simply, Adel's "gambit" is ill-advised by any measure I can think of.

1. If she doesn't move it, then her vote can result in a town lynch, and possibly follow it with one on her tomorrow.
2. If she does move it, she stands a good chance of being lynched herself (LAL, remember?).
3. If she's a Cop with a Guilty, she's insane/paranoid.
4. If she's Scum, this sort of certainty is silly for when/if I come up town.

Check out Newbie Game #415 for some truly bizarre gambiting by Adel, if you need any further evidence for why I don't think this is a scum-tell for her.

Who are they? Jerubbaal is presumably one. Who is the other?

Oman is still another.

[Mr. Flay]

So the parts that aren't based on Setael being scum are based on...what? Me suspecting a lot of people?

I don't have a coherent reply to your suspicions yet, Jitsu. I'm finding this Day incredibly frustrating so far, because everything I say seems to be misinterpreted.

[Mr. Flay]

on or about Friday, November 30th.

So about nine days before you actually voted for me with your "irrevocable" decision? Interesting. I assume then that I'm your "primary suspect" that you were neglecting to name for half a dozen posts before the 9th? Did you ever discover who your candidate for third scum is? Let's get all the cards on the table, if you're bound and determined to lynch me.

jeru, in order:
1. Korlash's "lie" still hasn't been shown to be anything conclusive. NabNab's death scenes and post 951 are decidedly ambiguous. Gunslinger's lurking and wretchedly poor logic/scumhunting were established, open behavior. (I think I established this pretty clearly in 895, by the way:

"Given a choice, I will ALWAYS choose to meta players based on the game I am playing, rather than other games/other players' games."

) Oman's lurking was/is decidedly out of character for him, though he now says his access is limited. He has found time to post about 18 times since his last post here on Monday, however... (a far cry from 15/day, but still hardly limited)
2. "Anata" is still on my list of potential scum, even though the current attempt to lynch me based on her scumminess is bizarre, to say the least. Setael is taking a big risk (if scum) by tying herself to me so closely, although she may (as scum) be certain that I will come up town and therefore she may get a pass.
3. Dropping and returning

is

still a scumtell in my view. But Anata's role being revealed in that newbie game puts some doubt on her alignment here, since it was predicated in my mind on her having a 'more interesting' role in the NG than here. If dropping this game was due to

pressure

(not role), that's a much weaker tell.
4. To be honest, I looked at post 495 and don't see what you're complaining about. That post was made hours after my big re-read (#881) and on short sleep, and I expected there to be more content/questions to follow up on, which didn't turn out to be true. Is that scummy? If there were further questions unanswered there, please restate them so I can answer clearly. I'll note that jerubbaal's attacks on me started very shortly after 881...

In order to add some fresh content, I *really* don't like Abstract Actuary's non-answer in #908. But he's been consistent in suspecting jerubbaal, Setael, and Gunslinger (with a side of Sudo_Nym) from #824 to #964, which I had somewhat missed by the end of my re-read that day.

[Mr. Flay]

I'll be very clear with the questions: What was it about the Set wagon which bothered you so much

The Setael wagon grew MUCH faster than the Korlash wagon, despite Korlash' broad range of scummy behaviors. It's also unusual for a wagon to develop solely on the basis of lurking on D3, though I admit the players in this game may be unusual in that regard, or I haven't played enough lately to adapt to the new meta regarding lurkers. The case evaporated somewhat when Anata112's newbie role came up Townie, but until recently I liked Jitsu and Adel as pro-town. I'm not sure what to think regarding Setael right now, but I'm leaning town.

and why was your case against AA so contrived?

I'm not answering this until you can find a way to phrase it that doesn't meet the "so when did you stop beating your wife?" trap. Suffice to say, I throw a lot of suspicion out there, on a lot of people. I'm not afraid to vote people, or unvote them when I'm wrong.

[Mr. Flay]

What about the Oman wagon?

What about it? I notice it's disintegrated since my own wagon started, but I'm not sure what you're getting at. I wish you'd speak less in riddles and 'traps' and more about what you actually think...

Ok, do you acknowledge that the case on AA was weak and why did you feel that it was worthy of a vote at that point?

The case on AA was probably weaker than I thought, because of who else was on the Setael wagon at the beginning of D3 (Adel & Jitsu). But that doesn't make my point about AA's claim about me 'forcing' him to give a third partner for Setael any less valid in my opinion. He's had a lot of suspicion to throw around today: Setael, jerubbaal, Mr. Flay, Sudo_Nym and GunslingerKB...

And this post screams "do I bus my partner or not"? - note that his very next post, after daybreak, asks what to do after a Mafia lynch.

More later.

[Mr. Flay]

Jitsu has been pretty hard after Anata/Set the whole game, I find it hard to believe that you considered him jumping on the wagon strange. And, despite your hostility toward him, you still seem to consider Adel as fairly town. If your move is not predicated by suspicions on one of both of them as scum, the rationale doesn't hold together, at all. Please be precise about your suspicions in the matter and the rationale behind your action.

Your first statement here is incorrect, which explains part of the miscommunication we're having. When I said I didn't like the Setael wagon, I was referring

solely

to the fact that Setael received 3 of the 5 needed votes in less than 48 hours. Compared with the absolutely glacial pace of the one known bandwagon we have on a scum so far (Korlash), I saw some merit to Adel's observation about wagon speed. It escaped me

at that moment

that I was ditching a wagon joined by two people I largely did not consider scummy.

However whatever happens today, I want a lot less fence-sitting. I would like to see everyone's thoughts out in the open about myself, Setael, jerubbaal, and Adel, before we lynch anybody.

[Mr. Flay]

To clarify the timing issue: Setael accumulated 3 votes between 1:13 pm and 2:41 pm on Nov. 26th, 2007, with AA stating 3 minutes later that he would be willing to vote for Setael, and ckd supporting a Setael lynch less than half an hour later. That's enough people to lynch, if everyone jumped on. Within two days of D3 opening.

It's no great stretch to say that there's probably at least one scum in that set...possibly two, in my view.

THAT

is what I've been trying to say, apparently incoherently, for days.

[Mr. Flay]

Adel, you're an idiot. This is too patently stupid a ploy for scum, unless you're brass-balling it. (I suppose Adel could be some sort of Mafia Framer, but that seems unlikely given that this is a Normal). Her defense of Jitsu is noted, though I still think Jitsu is town myself.

A scum powered day three speed wagon on a townie would stick longer and probably come closer to lynching. Flay's explanation did nothing to discourage me from thinking he is scum.

Do you realize what you just said? If the Setael-wagon is scum-powered, then it would have lasted longer. The only way this scenario makes sense is this tunnel-vision idea that Setael and I are transparently scumbuddies.

Flay, your explanation chooses to focus on generalizations (wagon speed) without acknowledging the particulars (who was on the wagon). If your explanation is true, it's very sloppy play, which I wouldn't really expect from you.

Guilty as charged; it was sloppy and due to a late-night reread, but let's be crystal clear on why people are lynching me, if you choose to do so. Don't let people fence-sit on Day Three.

By all means, lynch one of myself, Setael, or Adel today. I don't see any other options will not let this drag out for another day's worth of distraction.

Unvote, Vote: Adel

- let's play. You're being blatantly anti-town.

[Mr. Flay]

I happen to think the scumgroup is you korlash and jerrubbal.

I like the cut of your jib, sir.

(sorry, I'll have more content later, it was a long night)

[Mr. Flay]

If I understand what Adel has said about his methods at all (which, admittedly, is not much), a lot of his decisions seem to be based on profiling, and there's only so much profit in arguing profiles.

This doesn't make any sense to me. This

sounds

like you're giving anyone who approaches the game on theory a pass, and that sounds "sloppy" to use a favorite word in this game. The game is about applying theory to specific cases and using THAT to discern the correct action. I think you're being deliberately vague in your support of Adel here.

I would also like to know why I'm being linked to Adel, other than not minding his style of play so much.

Also because you agree with each other a lot. There are only so many people talking at this point, and only a few seem "linked" in their opinions. One set is me and Setael. Another is you and Adel. Hence the stalemate.

I also haven't liked Flay's assertions that us thinking he is that transparent as scum is ridiculous. I don't like it when people play badly and then use that to say that they can't be scum.

That's not what I said. I said I don't behave like that when I'm scum, because it's sub-optimal play. If you think I'm purposefully playing

badly

in order to get myself lynched as scum, I'm not sure I can talk you out of that...

There are still too many damn fence sitters. I'll probably get a chance to compile a list later today, if someone else doesn't do so first.

[Mr. Flay]

After 9 days, that's what we get??!?

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry, that was my quick before-I-drive-to-work reply, and partially based on frustration of almost having replaced Sudo in another game (that I'm modding).

I want to hear Sudo_Nym weigh in much more specifically on myself, Adel, and Setael as potential lynches for today. After nine days, I want a little more than "well, I'm leaning Flay, but I might be wrong". Which of Adel's arguments do you like better? Which of mine do you disagree with?

Oman, where's that jeruubaal reread?

[Mr. Flay]

I wanted to point it out because I thought it was odd. Others can correct me if they feel differently, but I thought Mr. Flay was rather low on the suspect list coming into this day. So he had almost no negative attention before today and now he is our top suspect - but it isn't for anything he did on previous days, it is for how he acted today.

Indeed, most if not all of the 'case' on me has come from today, so I want those reasons clear if the group does decide to lynch me.

I don't think your characterization of me "putting the spotlight on anyone else" is accurate. My suspicions have been all over the map, true, but I think I've given reasons every time I've switched. Right now I think the Adel/jerrubaal/Setael/Flay thing is distracting if allowed to continue, so one of us should probably be the lynch for today. I'm willing to have it be Adel (obviously I would prefer it not be me, but that would at least be instructive IF people have to state their reasons for lynching me beforehand). I honestly don't think my play has been so bad that it warrants the suspicion I've gotten today, so I naturally think there's scum gunning for my head.

[Mr. Flay]

I do think Adel is ballsy enough to do this as scum (drop Korlash like a bad habit, and peg onto me as "certain scum"), and I cannot continue to excuse her bad play as being purely based in her tendency to crystallize around a specific, misguided theory. Whether or not she's scum (and someone will likely leap on this statement), the unwillingness to ever consider moving her vote for the rest of today is anti-town, and I am willing to punish that. But at this point, I do think she's more than 50% likely to be scum. In that same category presently are jeruubaal and Abstract Actuary (barely). I can give my pro-town list too, but I think I'd rather wait on that until I'm closer to a lynch, to avoid signing anyone's death warrant tonight.

The fact that jerubbaal gives her a pass for this and leaps on the bandwagon is scummy as hell, but for right now Adel is the better wagon. I will gladly switch if that wagon grows larger than hers, but on the other hand that will not dispel the Adel-Flay feud, which will likely continue to be distracting tomorrow if we're still alive, and has continued since my arrival in this game, bizarrely. I have to wonder if Adel-scum thought she could run the table on the relatively new players here (something I said before mostly in jest).

Thanks for the prod about her question, though.

@Flay: What are the chances that Setael is scum, attacking your attackers as a subtle way of budding up to you? How scummy do you think she is?

Looking over some of the games Setael has played in, I think she's a good enough player to do that. However her defense of me has been awfully consistent and intense in the face of continued pressure not to pair up with me. I'm not sure she's naive enough to hitch her wagon to me so completely, since I'm damaged goods at this point. I'm more inclined to ascribe her motivations to defending against crappy wagons and poor logic at this point, though I'd revisit that later in the game if need be.

[Mr. Flay]

Agh, I reordered that post midway: in "the fact that jerubbaal gives her a pass on

this

", "this" refers to Adel's ceaseless and largely baseless attacks on me (remember, she started this crap before my so-called lousy ability to defend myself became so apparent).

[Mr. Flay]

Adel, you've completely misinterpreted my Final Circle of lynch candidates. I never said whether or not

I

was willing to hammer Setael, merely that getting rid of one of us will be most instructive. If I get lynched, show up town, and you get lynched tomorrow because of it and show up town, then gods help us all, but your behavior has not been in the town's best interest today. You've essentially argued from authority, made pronouncements with no basis in this game, and refused to admit that you might be wrong. So I'm willing to lynch you before we get to endgame with that bad behavior on board.

Also, what Oman is talking about is for someone to vote you so that you reach 4 votes, knocking me off the lynching block. It's really not that complex, and your (deliberate?) misread is not helping your case any.

[Mr. Flay]

how does you voting for Setael screw up the dead line lynch when you werent voting anyone to begin with?

Well, it's silly, really; so much so that I hesitate to talk about it. However, it lets Setael get up to three votes, which, if given the right series of unvotes and other events on the part of other players, could drop us below the threshold for a deadline lynch. Like I said, it is incredibly unlikely, but it becomes possible. Probably wasn't even worth mentioning, now that I've actually analyzed the thing.

Well, at least that flawless Sudo_Logic is consistent...

But anyway, I don't think that applies in this game:

10: If not enough players are participating or the spectators grow bored, a deadline may be enacted. When a deadline hits, the player with the most votes will be lynched regardless of whether or not they have a majority of votes. If there is a tie at deadline, the first player to have received the most votes will be lynched.

If three of us reach three votes each, i think I'm still the dead man.

[Mr. Flay]

Adel is still female, folks.

I'm suspicious of Set regardless of Flay's alignment.

That's a pretty interesting statement, since you're voting me.

While I agree with AA that we shouldn't have more people claim than is necessary, it's by no means a sure thing that I'm going to be the lynch for today. Right now just one vote (or unvote) would change that. I will claim or give my final scumlist, or both, if people want. It does not appear that there's a will to quicklynch me, which is a good thing.

Adel, why DID you feel the need to warn AA about putting me at L-1?

[Mr. Flay]

@Adel: At the time of your vote, I can only presume you were really sure that Flay is scum. Then in 1069, you talk about what you will do if Flay comes up innocent, and it makes it seem that you are noticeably less confident. Then in 1102, the confident talk seems to be back. My questions are, how sure are you about Flay's guilt now and why did you seem to hedge a bit in 1069?

I am not 100% confident that he is scum. I expect that his is, but I can't know for sure, obviously. As an extreme example, even if I was a cop with a "guilty" investigation on Mr. Flay I wouldn't be 100% sure that he would be revealed as scum upon lynching- he could be a miller or I could have sanity issues.

You're not an insane cop, which is good to know. So what IS the basis for your immovable vote? Posting analysis?

At this point it's probably worth putting all your cards on the table. I won't attack you for reneging on your earlier refusal to explain your vote, since I've been asking for it all along.

[Mr. Flay]

The other thing we have to be careful of is whether or not this is a limited reveal game. If it is, and we are only given the affiliation on death, then the role information is extremely valuable as scum learn less information than normal from a death scene. Claims then are hugely important, as that is one of the best ways they have to gain such information.

If true (and I have no idea if it is or not, yet), it would mean scum are

more likely

to have known the answer to Adel's question in post 950. This could be a slip worth analyzing...

[Mr. Flay]

@Flay: How do you know that Adel is not an insane cop?

I seriously want to hear the answer to this one. Seriously.

Huh? In the message I quoted from Adel she said that

if

she was a Cop, she might be wrong because of sanity issues, or because I'm a Miller.

I know she's not a Sane Cop because I'm pro-town. I am discounting the "unknown Miller" possibility because this is a Normal game. But she's

explicitly

said she wasn't relying on cop investigation, which throws out the 'hidden' reason for her immovable vote that makes sense: Insane/Paranoid Cop with a 'Guilty' result on me.

A hammer is a scumtell in my book, with an-inaccurate lynch being far scummier than an accurate one.

Interesting. So you'd never hammer someone yourself? Or are there situations where a hammer is not a scumtell?

Looks like Adel and I are waiting the other one to blink when it comes to claiming. Obviously I'd prefer that she start.

[Mr. Flay]

... I have no idea what just happened.

Except that somehow, in the end, we won. Well done town, and kudos to jerubbaal and Setael for leading me on a merry chase.

[Mr. Flay]

Why did the Mafia choose to NK Adel? That seemed counter-intuitive to me, as there would have been calls for her head if she had lived...

I still don't understand her insistence that Day on attacking me, but that's more than counterbalanced by NabNab's fantastic, if worrisome, 'flavor', and some of the other excellent players I got to know through this game. In fact...

[Mr. Flay]

I guess I overestimated just how townie everyone thought she was, since we knew how spot-on she was the whole game

QFT. This is very hard not to do as scum, and is the basis of some pretty solid tells about "too much knowledge about alignment/setup".

End conclusion was that she was going to be too much of a threat if she was given the chance to get all her opinions down in the thread, as she would inevitably shown up townie when lynched. If it were lylo, I would totally have let her live and go for the throat.

Fair enough. You guys didn't do badly, all things considered. Although I'm VERY amused that the vaunted "Korlash is lying!" thing turned out to not have him be a RB at all...

[Mr. Flay]

Jitsu, have you played elsewhere before this?

[Mr. Flay]

Don't stop! I look forward to playing/modding with you again.

The only thing I would say, is don't change your style based on the role you're given (especially after saying that out loud here). Doctors who lurk (which they think is a good strategy for staying alive) draw fire and suspicion; see Gunslinger. Cops can fairly easily telegraph that they're investigators, but if other townies are doing a good job, they'll blend in. And you'll be amazed how much there is to 'fake analyze' as Scum...

In other news, I agree with AA's last post wholeheartedly (which is probably the first time I've said

that

all game...)

[Mr. Flay]

In retrospect, I/we were probably right about Anata112 dropping this game (where she was scum) for that Newbie game (where she was a Townie). I underestimated the power of that meta-analysis, and that's where I feel I went worst astray here; that, and sometimes not being able to post as often as I would have liked.