Oman wrote:AA wrote:Oman, is your vote on Adel only because you think the likely scum group is Korlash, Adel and jerubbaal? Based on the fact that Adel pushed Korlash hard since he came in and then named jerubbaal as his likely partner and then has since backed off of that accusation?
Ya, mostly.
I think this argument is extremely weak.
Assumption: Adel, Korlash and jerubbaal are the scum team.
This means that Adel came into the game and bussed Korlash as hard and as blindly as I've ever seen anyone be bussed. While doing so he named his other scum buddy as the likely scum partner - knowing that Korlash would come up scum and afterwards people would definitely come back to that statement. And then when Korlash is lynched and comes up scum and eventually people come back to that statement, now he decides to back off a little bit.
Why would he do this?
If he wouldn't want to bus both partners he would have never said jerubbaal was the likely partner the day he came in. If he did want to bus both partners he would have bussed jerubbaal just as hard as Korlash, saying "see, I know what I'm talking about." The situation that you propose requires Adel to want to bus both partners at the start and then for some reason change his mind, which he would know would call him into question - despite the fact that nothing changed for him (he knew Korlash would come up scum). I just don't see this scenario as likely at all.
I'm not saying Adel isn't scum and I'm not saying jerubbaal isn't scum, but I don't think they're both scum.
Also, I don't think Adel is scum. He came in and did his best to bus Korlash - and he eventually got his wish. Now, after that happens he probably has a pretty good opportunity to combine that with a jerubbaal lynch. If jerubbaal is town he can lead to this townie lynch and still say, "well I was right on Korlash, I guess the link to jerubbaal was off, but still 1/2 is pretty good." and come out still looking pretty clean. If jerubbaal is scum, and he decided to double bus day 1, he would have went through with it and come out looking incredibly clean after leading to two straight scum lynches.
Instead, Adel looked elsewhere. I think Adel is town.
Oman wrote:I think Adel has just done a lot of work and a lot of talking without saying anything. Also note that I feel that in Adel's character (huge meta here), she would gladly sac a scumbuddy straight up.
Independent of this game, I agree 100%.