Mini 508- Trouble in New Catania-Game Over

[Ythill]

/confirm; replacing Streeflo

Hi Claus. Good to see a familiar face. And Thesp, I've read some of your games.

Starting my reread...

[Ythill]

Finished my reread. Will post my thoughts momentarily but first wanted to address a direct question.

Ythill... I'd like you to confirm that RossWilliam and Thok are your scumpartners for us, if you would.

Sure, RW and Thok are my... wait a minute. My role PM says I'm town. Sorry, if I can figure out this mixup, I'll be glad to confirm their alignments.

Seriously though, your request is ironic because RW and Thok are two of my three suspects. I'll get to why in my next post.

As for suspicions against me, I don't entirely understand them. When replacing, I often skim over my predescessor's posts. If you would be good enough to reiterate your suspicions, I will do my best to address them. Remember, I can't read minds but I

do

know his role and might be able to make sesne of some of his actions, or at least tell you whether I agree with him or not.

If your suspicions are at all based on lurking, might as well just drop them now. I am the opposite of a lurker (a rekrul?) and Claus can confirm that.

[Ythill]

Some Random Insights

• There’s an odd dynamic between #162 and #173 (inclusive). Someone2, could you please explain how CTD knew that English was not your first language?
  
• The Vaugn wagon was uber suspicious up until his fake-almost-claim IMO, because HS was quite obviously town. Even if you didn’t read any of his other posts, #105 is so town that I have trouble imagining any watchful player missing it. Yes, Vaugn was a sore thumb, but IMO he was set up by opportunist scum and lazy townies. Shame, shame.
  
• It’s D3 and we’re down 3. Mislynch today is likely to have us at LYLO tomorrow. Yet there has been very little speculation about the wealth of information revealed by three dead townies. Why?

Player Analysis

• Rishi: Few scumtells, decent number of towntells. I really like his behavior late in D1. Suspicions of RW seem honest.
  Leaning town.
  
  
• Ythill: I know my alignment and you don’t.
  
• Setael: Beastly was too lurky to read. Setael’s seemed mostly protown though I don’t like her claim request a few hours before the D1 deadline. She also seems to be tunneling on S2.
  MotR.
  
  
• RossWilliam (RW): D_O was quite scummy. His #124 was the most definitive D1 scumtell and it attempts to explain why he supported the Lowell lynch heavily without bussing for the hammer. He then slinks off to hide, replying promptly with an empty post when prodded. RW actually voted kurbio after his claim, which is sloppy scum, which fits with his sloppy playstyle. He hops to the Vaugn wagon when that vehicle was utterly unconvincing. Also, his defenses amount to “show me how that is scummy” which isn’t really a defense at all.
  PE#1.
  
  
• Claus: This guy wears his alignment on his sleeve and, in this game, his sleeve says
  town.
  
  
• Someone2 (S2): Seems town early. I don’t like the way he attacked Rishi for questioning the Lowell wagon and #270 is a pretty serious scum-sentiment (wanting to wait for dedaline with no lynch) but I’ve got some towntells on him too.
  MotR.
  
  
• Thesp: Rite had very serious tunnel vision and I wanted to hang him for it on D1, but I wasn’t in the game then. Thesp is playing like Thesp. I have few tells either way, but I think his suspicions are solid.
  Leaning slightly town.
  
  
• Thok: LML seemed over-eager but otherwise MotR until near the end of D1. Then he asks for a deadline. I got a desperate bussing vibe from the way he pushed Lowell at L-1 after that deadline had been lifted. Once the deadline returned, he’d dissappeared which makes his earlier desperation seem false. My first reread didn’t reveal much on Thok, but I
  really
  don’t like the way he repeats “Lowell is the VI” and related comments. Feels like a backhanded defense.
  PE#3.
  
  
• Lowell: Should have been lynched D1. He follows people, vote hops, refuses to explain his actions, hunts little (and vaguley when he does), and attacks when he should be defending. You know, letting people get away with this sort of thing sets a bad precedent. His posts seem empty in a calculating way, and they are too perceptive to be the work of a VI. There is one saving-grace towntell, but it could just as easily be the WIFOMy act of scum trying to redeem himself on D2.
  PE#2.

Technicalities

@ Setael & S2: MotR = Middle of the Road. I've noted some scummy behavior of yours in my analysis. Discuss.

@ RW, Lowell, & Thok: PE = Public Enemy. Your entries above are summaries, not cases. A real case will come if/when I decide to push for a lynch. But feel free to register defenses where applicable.

Thok, IGMEOY.

FoS: Lowell, Vote: RossWilliam

[Ythill]

Okay Seta, but what about you asking for S2 to claim just a few hours before deadline? What was the point of that? Honestly, this worries me more than apparent tunneling.

My main issue with someone2 at this point (besides the case I made D1) is that his play is so much different now than it was D1. He has been laying extremely low ever since he escaped that lynch. He's gone with the flow, careful to not make waves...

I don't understand how this is indicitive of S2's alignment. Can you explain?

[Ythill]

Good point about the prod requests. I'm still having trouble with the other part of your #494 though...

He was active and talkative D1 and made several slip ups. He managed to get out of the spotlight and is now laying really low. My thought is that he is afraid that if he is active he'll keep making mistakes and won't be able to get out of it next time.

It still doesn't address his alignmnet. This sentiment, just like the last bit I quoted from you, could be as easily true about a town player. Caught flak for his actions and so is afraid to be active. I don't mean to jump to S2's defense, especially since my read on him is MotR, but I really don't see this as being a scumtell, let alone worthy of being the "main issue" of anyone pushing so hard against a single target.

Rest assured, I do know about the D1 scumtells on S2 and I'm not trying to call you out for

ever

suspecting him. I am only questioning your more recent statements.

Meh. I should probably drop this and start looking at the wagons and whatnot.

[Ythill]

LOL. Cross-posted with Thesp.

[Ythill]

Bother...

unvote

. Not an alignmnet statement, just don't want to keep an absent player at L-1.

Vote: Lowell

for now since he's my PE#2.

@ RW: Good luck in cali.

Mod: Could we get a vote count. Also, I'm assuming there's no auto-deadline today?

[Ythill]

I’ve done the footwork for an analysis of each of the four major wagons: Lowell, S2, kurbio, and Vaugn. My analysis of the Lowell wagon is provided here. The others will follow within a day or three, time permitting.

Since I’m in deep reading mode and we have no deadline I’m going to

unvote

for now.

The Lowell Wagon

The early wagon develops naturally over a 54 post span, starting with FoSes but slowly gathering votes. LML’s FoS is slimy, but everyone else seems to have sound reasons for suspicion. Lowell’s defenses do nothing to clear him. He’s at L-3 when LML turns his FoS to a vote, bringing the wagon into claim danger.

Though they are on the wagon, HS and kurbio make strong arguments against LML’s cases and HS catches the main thread of LML’s manipulations in #105. LML isn’t dissuaded.

S2 is acting scummy when he pushes Lowell to L-1. Rite continues to cheerlead the wagon he’s already voting.

D_O pushes the wagon hard though he never votes.

Lowell gives his OMGUS “last words.” S2 points out that D_O didn’t hammer which draws out a very scummy response. Rishi calls for the wagon to cease which begins Word War Lowell, a contest without votes.

Again, LML’s cases are questioned and discredited but his vote remains. Even Lowell manages a good defense here.

Word War Lowell continues with discussion about the deadline extension;

D_O changes sides so distinctly that S2 lists him as anti-Lowell-lynch

.

There is movement to S2 and LML preempts his vote hop. Kurbio does the same. Several of the wagoneers push to hold it together to no avail.

Rishi posts an unvote though he wasn’t voting

, Ibby calls the wagon stinky and unvotes, and things start to fall apart. Rite digs in, even asks for a deadline. Rishi and Ibby wage war against the wagon. D_O plays both sides. S2 becomes confused and borders on advocating a no lynch. We’re down to three wagoneers, all of them lurky.

Seta makes a mild but well founded argument against Lowell. Rishi now jumps on the Lowell wagon, but hops off a little while later, prefering an S2 lynch to a no lynch. Rite does the same but isn’t happy about it. This leaves two lurkers on the wagon. Day ends in no lynch.

D2, there is a strange lack of Lowell suspicion.

Thok seasons his posts with a backhanded defense of Lowell, whom he wrongly calls the VI.

Rishi, kurbio, and S2 all mention Lowell suspicions (and RW chimes in here) but there are no votes. Day ends with lynch of a townie.

D3 has brought us a jab from RW, a meandering-toward-suspicion read from Claus, and my second-choice vote.

Conclusions

The wagoneers piled on slowly and, for the most part, honestly. LML is painted in a suspicious light and D_O comes across as a scummy manipulator of the situation. The hammer never comes, because Lowell is scum? S2 was last on and first off and is still taking flak from the morphing attacks that started at that peak. The voters fall off one by one, scattering to other targets. Two were facing their own attackers, two deadline hopped to another wagon with steam.

Though he votes Lowell for a very short span, Rishi goes to great lengths to derail this wagon. He is assisted in this by D_O, Ibby, and CTD.

Notable is the way N1 washes away all serious suspicions of Lowell. Whereas a nearly-lynched town player will usually draw some flak from ambitious scum, and whereas Lowell started lurking D2 without otherwise changing his habits, neither scum nor town seems interested in lynching him anymore. Also notable is Thok’s one-man stand against a Lowell lynch that is no longer being pursued by anyone; remember that LML = Thok (the most hollow case = the backhanded lych decrier of D2).

Discussion?

[Ythill]

Check in post. Wondering of I should bother with wagon analyses, as it seems as if nobody's interested at this point. I'll look over the notes myself, at least, and see if they alter my suspicions.

[Ythill]

Ythill, I would appreciate you posting your wagon analyses.

Okay. Just checking in before bed, but I'll try to throw something together tomorrow, unless someone hammers RW before then.

[Ythill]

The Someone2 Wagon (D1)

A sneak preview of suspicion against S2 begins in 59. LML says S2’s case against Lowell is flawed, while also pointing out that it is too strong for an FoS. S2 enters an OMGUS defense, Stree quotes LML and votes. BMQ erroneously declares that S2 is the lynch for the day, to which Claus (the “actual” lynch) replies with a heavy case against S2. The defense against this is promted by D_O, posted adequately by S2, and assisted by HS who rebuts the original LML accusations. Stree unvotes. S2 announces a vacation and the votes drop off.

S2 stumbles back into the spotlight during the peak of the Lowell wagon, posting his infamous #162, in which he makes the bulk of scumtells still held against him today. These include The Slip (one scum left), exaggerating the information potential of a lynch, unvoting Lowell while declaring suspicion against him, and attributing that unvote to an opinion of “town readiness” apparently at odds with his earlier take on the subject (provided tacitly by his L-1 vote). Each of these "tells" has a reasonable explanation that allows S2's alignment to be town. I treat this post separately because it is the crux of much to come.

CTD points out The Slip, S2 corrects himself, CTD morphs the attack and they spar. Meanwhile, LML and Lowell cite The Slip, jumping on the wagon. D_O and Rite do the same but with a F/HoS. The CTD vs. S2 discussion has dismissed The Slip by #174 and the attack has morphed into a bevy of accusations coming from a few directions, but The Slip is still cited heavily. S2 defends himself well, assisted by Rite, Rishi, and Kurbio. Lowell says we need a better wagon and hops off. Ibby mentions The Slip as a tell but later votes for unrelated reasons. Through it all, the wagon hovers around 2-4 votes until the second deadline is posted.

Ibby recruits Seta and pushes the wagon with Kurbio’s help. S2 has posted another defense but he’s getting hit from many directions and becomes more of a topic than a participant. Seta plays devil’s advocate to the wagon and Rishi openly argues against it. CTD doesn’t get involved. A vote count reveals the Core of the wagon (CTD, Ibby, Seta). Lowell, Rishi, and Rite jump on, referencing the deadline; CTD pushes the wagon; Seta asks for a claim at the appropriate time. D1 ends with S2 @ L-1 and no lynch.

The Someone2 Wagon (D2)

Ibby is dead, but the rest of the Core starts right in on S2. They gain few votes at first but support gathers from DGB (the new LML), D_O, and Vaugn. S2 makes some strong defenses himself. His allies include kurbio and Rishi. The latter incites Seta, who leaves her wagon momentarily to jab at him. Vaugn hopped off momentarily for a joke, but has been pushing the wagon pretty hard.

Thok finds S2 scummy out of the gate and RW joins him. Seta jumps back on. She asks S2 for suspicions and he delivers them; notable that two of his Core attackers are listed as town. Thok turns his suspicion to a vote and Vaugn shouts “S2 is scum” all the way to the gallows. The day ends with a pointless twilight vote change from Thok, which struck me as odd.

The Someone2 Wagon (D3)

One of S2’s defenders has been killed by the mafia. Yes, he was a claimed power role but a claimed tracker is arguably more useful to the mafia than he is to town, at least for a couple of days.

Thok starts the wagon right back up. Seta cheerleads him before jumping back on with bulldozer attacks. Rishi has stopped speaking in S2’s defense but Thesp has taken his place, albeit less aggressively. Claus became a strong supporter of S2 for awhile (vote with a case, two confirms on vote) and Lowell slipped in a jab.

I announce S2 as MotR and accuse Seta of tunneling, becoming enmeshed in the Thesp vs. Seta debate. The game lags. Claus withdraws his support based on a reread, shifting to the RW wagon with an extensive case.

Conclusions

It intrigues me when I see continuity in the actions of a role across replacements. Claus attacks S2 heavily in the preview (in a way that could be a defensive move vs. BMQ); CTD is the most vocal and stubborn D1 supporter of an S2 lynch; Claus re-replaces to attack S2 heavily on D3. A similar tangent occurs with LML/DGB/Thok, though the attacks are less aggressive. I would understand these patterns if S2 had dropped a smoking gun but he hasn’t.

Most of the tells on S2 are questionable or have been extensively explained. This has required the attacks of long-time supporters to morph. His wagon has been controversial since its inception, meaning that people have been arguing reasonably against it. Two of his defenders were confirmed town, the rest have been varied enough that calling them all scumbuddies isn’t plausible.

Other than the deadline votes it garnered on D1, S2’s lynch has been called for loudly by a stubborn few. Of them, Ibby and Vaugn were confirmed town and I think at least one other must be town because scum are unlikely to push so hard by themselves.

Claus eleventh-hour drop-off has made his actions here seem even more suspect and, since my read on him has been town, I’m going to have to rethink my global perceptions to grok this.

The responses to S2’s #162 should be examined carefully. What nobody explained about The Slip was that making assumptions about the number of mafia (even without the language debacle) is usually a non-tell that can draw opportunism from the scum and cause overreaction from townies. Here, the language explanation makes the tell even less reliable, yet the large majority of the D1 attacks against S2 take a position regarding The Slip and either cite it directly or are based on other tells from #162.

In brief: The Slip drew attention to S2 and, in the paranoid state of mafia play, attention quickly turned into suspicion. Differentiating between those who fell victim to this dynamic and those who based manipulations on it should give us a pretty accurate picture of whom to lynch.

[Ythill]

Ythill....what is your intention with that post?

My intention in posting wagon analyses in general was to make a public record of impressions I'm gaining from deep rereads of each wagon, and to generate discussion about the things revealed therein.

I started this with Lowell but abandonned the idea after nobody responded to my first analysis. Then Seta showed interest in my thoughts regarding the S2 wagon and so I put together the above post.

In analysis mode, I'm not trying to clear or discredit anyone, I am simply calling the shots as I see them. Incidentally, I think my post does challenge some of the suspicions against S2 but it is the product of a neutral read.

[Ythill]

I'm not quite ready to hammer RW yet. Will think about it overnight and, unless I come up with a good reason not to, I'll string him up in the morning.

[Ythill]

Sorry about the lapse. I've been busy and my other game is at a crucial point.

I've looked for a reason to keep RW alive and the best I can come up with is that I find Thok just as scummy. Which isn't a very good reason.

RW was my PE#1 after my first reread and was only unvoted because of his absence. Scummy play stretches over both players who've held the role. I checked my wagon notes regarding RW's actions vs. kurbio and Vaugn; they are as Claus has pointed out.

Here's to hoping we're right, because otherwise we're at LYLO tomorrow.

vote RossWilliam

Goodnight.

[Ythill]

Finally, I lynch scum! Doing a happy I-helped-lynch-scum dance. For why, check my sig.

I'm probably not going to make my analyses of the kurbio and Vaugn wagons public yet, because I believe we have more important things to talk about. Will do an isolated reread of RW and his forebearers sometime in the next 24 hours or so.

As for Rishi's death, he was light content enough to be a safe mafia kill. I'll glance at who he might have been onto, especially earlier in the game, but I don't think his alignment gives us much information.

[Ythill]

Does anyone see a compelling reason to lynch anyone but Thok?

Not offhand, but compelling is a strong word. You infer that you

do

have compelling reason(s) to lynch Thok. Will you state/consolidate/reiterate your case?

I am starting my reread of RW. Analysis to follow. I will vote when I post it.

[Ythill]

Sorry this took so long. Taking care of my son takes priority.

Isolated Re-read of D_O and RW

(all post #s refer to isolation with oldest first)

This role has some peculiar habits. Five players are attacked: Beastly/Seta, Lowell, kurbio (town), S2, and HS/Vaugn (town). Only Lowell was defended, only rite/thesp was cheerleaded. Lowell is heavily coached; S2 is included in that coaching on one occasion. Other than these, the only players mentioned are Claus/CTD, stree/me, and Rishi (town). That leaves LML/Thok, BMQ/Ibby (town) who were never referred to.

Neither D_O nor RW was high-content and there’s not much of a paper trail. No scum-list gambit post. There are some patterns though.

D_O defends Lowell early (#2 & 3), pushes his wagon at L-1 (#5), teeters (#6), and then works toward a defense of Lowell (#7, 8, 14), pushing the S2 wagon instead (#9, 10, 12, 13). His S2 “suspicions” are more permanent (#15). He coaches Lowell twice (#4 & 11), the most telling instance (#4) has been quoted below.

From RW’s entrance, I’d assume the mod didn’t let him PM his buddies during replacement. He comes out with immediate coaching for Lowell (#1, quoted below). He spends most of his posts attacking now-confirmed townies and defending himself, which tells us nothing. But he does coach Lowell again (#7), seems very interested in my opinion of S2 (#15), and in a rare twist of character, sets up an appeal to authority by requesting that thesp post suspicions (#8).

Some Coaching Quotes

I would actually agree with you if you actually posted more reason against them then "I think", but your post looked from another angle also strikes me as a bit of a scum tell with just a name list and no reasons.

If you can actually answer why Streeflo and Kuribo are scum in your view people would actually consider your views but atm it just looks like a distant statement with close to no meaning behind it.

So atm Im thinking you maybe scum Lowell.

Here D_O explains to his buddy how to build better cases against a townie and an unknown (though I know I’m town) and says that he’ll help push a more convincing case. He also warns his buddy, who is dropping too many scumtells. D_O coaches Lowell on one other occasion.

I feel like Lowell is a big blustery bag of wind, and maybe the same goes to someone2. It takes a silly scum to get as big a target as both of them have. But then again, maybe they are silly scum.

Using faulty logic, RW dismisses the idea that Lowell is scum while subtly warning him that a bus is coming if he doesn’t clean up his act. He slips S2 into the equation, perhaps to dilute the statement. He coaches Lowell on one other occasion.

Conclusions

D_O was a think-on-your-feet kind of guy, taking advantage of opportunities and dealing with problem situations when they came up. He went to great lengths to derail the Lowell wagon. His suspicions of Lowell were transitory, applied only when they suited him. His attacks against S2 were more prolonged.

RW was a more calculating player. This is evidenced by what I believe was a willful frame-up of thesp. I think RW noticed D_O’s trail of evidence and tried to clean it up by continuing to coach Lowell but from a more aggressive stance and by slipping S2 in as another red herring. His concern about my opinion of S2 served the dual purpose of increasing that smokescreen and distracting from parts of the wagon analysis that found him scummy.

Remember, I think Lowell is scummy based on his own actions, but a reread of D-O/RW makes this possibility even more viable. I

do

think that Thok is scum but I believe that Lowell is the better play for today for two reasons. (1) Several players have found Lowell hard to read. We should lynch him now, when LYLO isn’t a possibility, both to remove the LYLO/VI argument from his defenses and because I think there is a slightly higher chance of mislynch here. (2) If Lowell does come up scum, it provides even more evidence against Thok, but I don’t know that the inverse is true.

vote: Lowell

[Ythill]

a "lynch Lowell while we're not at lylo" is not a bad idea, but the fact that Ythill suggested it, and the way that he suggested it has ringed my bells a little.

What about the way I suggested it was suspicious?

One thing bothers me though, is that Ythill is so set that Thok and Lowell are scum - even though I agree with him. I played one other game with Ythill, and he was more open to other possibilities.

In that other game my suspicions changed organically over the course of many posts. Here, I've been doing deeper rereads on, for the most part, the same static information that I replaced into. As I see new evidence or counter-evidence to what I've found, my opinions may very well change.

Ythill, suppose you are wrong about Lowell - who would you be looking at to be Thok's partner? Or would that reduce the possibility of Thokscum to you?

Lowell being town would cancel one scumtell Thok's dropped but, considering who is left alive, it wouldn't clear him altogether. As for other scumpartners, I haven't carefully considered interactions or whatnot, but I'd look deeper at Seta, S2, and Claus (in that order) if Lowell came up town.

BTW: Thok's recent posts are a little dodgy, eh? When accused of using suspicion of S2 to distract from a RW lynch, he uses suspicion of S2 to distract from his own. I'm not

against

lynching Thok but there's no need to hurry. I'll keep my vote parked on Lowell as another option for now. I wonder how long it will be before Lowell votes Thok...

[Ythill]

I forget, what was everyone's thought on a massclaim?

My thought on this matter is:

confirm vote: Lowell.

[Ythill]

Why do you put me as less scummy than S2? I thought you were pretty sure of him as town?

Initially, I had S2 @ MotR and you as certain town. Examining the S2 wagon made me doubt some of the cases against him but didn't really improve him far from MotR. Meanwhile, you've only made one questionable action since my read and I'm not sure it changes my mind about you; under the right circumstances, your action might change my view of S2.

Also, realize that we are talking about a prioritized list of who I think is Thok's scumbuddy if the people above are town. If not Lowell, then probably Seta because she has been teaming up with him on the S2 wagon. If not her (because she is town) then it has to be S2 or you. Given Lowell and Seta as town and Thok as scum, I would suspect S2 over you.

I'm becoming more convinced that Thesp is town and I know that I am, which is why we weren't included. And yes, I'm aware that somebody's probably going to say Thesp and I are scumbuddies now. Whatever.

But this whole hypothetical list is silly. Thok and Lowell are our scum. That is my theory.

[Ythill]

I think scum are less likely to suggest a massclaim at this point, personally.

Why?

If you think Thok and Lowell are our scums, why not lynch Thok first?

I'm not opposed to it but we're not in any hurry, are we?

[Ythill]

I'm not sure why you're for it.

Probably because you pointed out that suggesting a mass role-claim wasn't scummy and Seta said that seeking town opinion on the topic was.

Talking about distracting, what do you think about Thok, Lowell?

Excellent point, Claus.

Conversation seems to be lagging. Let's spice things up a bit...

Unvote; vote Thok

(which puts him @ L-1).

[Ythill]

Sweet. Scum swing two days in a row. I'm starting to feel like this game is in the bag.

It is now night. Choices by February 22nd, please.

Which gives us an anomoly. Since the day is starting up on the 21st, this means that the mafia no-kill was by design, not caused by inactivity. I've no experience in this area; why would the scum choose not to kill at this point? Is this a failed attempt to frame S2?

IMO, Thesp and Claus are above suspicion for now. I can't imagine scum bussing two buddies in a row and then not killing. I'd include myself here, but I already wasn't suspicious of me.

This leaves Lowell, Seta, and S2 as my suspects. Convenient that they were also my top three picks for Thok's scummbuddy. Also quite convenient that we have enough breathing room to test some theories.

vote: Lowell

[Ythill]

I'm hoping the no kill was caused by a roleblocker. If so, we've got another scum bagged.

Good point, I hadn't thought of this. Hopefully we get a claim and another lynch then. It's also possible we have a town doc with an accurate night choice (who shouldn't claim).

Is this a failed attempt to frame S2?

I don't understand that theory. How would a no kill implicate Someone2?

It actually doesn't, but could have if the no-kill was withheld until tomorrow. S2 hasn't posted since February 1st, it's likely he's absconded and so wouldn't have sent in a NK. This would have been an effective framing technique if used with a little more patience.

However, a town power role is far more reasonable an explanation. Please excuse my dumbness.

Mod: Could we get a prod on someone2 and, if appropriate, a replacement?

[Ythill]

Please explain why you think a cop should claim. I agree that if a roleblocker stopped the NK, he/she should claim, and I'm fine with posting a mass yes or no on this topic.

Might be in agreement with the cop/tracker/etc mass-claim but only if I understand how it will help us.

[Ythill]

Okay Thesp, I'm game.

While we're waiting for consensus on this, what are your current beliefs about our next lynch? I feel pretty safe in a bloc with you and Claus, at least for the time being.

[Ythill]

I think if there is a cop they should wait to claim until we're sure there's no roleblocker, which would mean there is definitely a doc that can protect them tonight.

I don't disagree, but be careful of your surety here. No RB does not "definitely" mean we have a doc. This claim strategy has revealed the one decent excuse for a purposeful mafia no-kill.

So far we have consensus on the mass RB-or-not claim but I suspect that a RB would have claimed already anyway. As would have a cop with a guilty result on a live player.

[Ythill]

That's agreement from everyone except S2, who is being replaced. Until we hear different from Seta, let's just stick to the RB part.

I do solemnly swear that I am not a roleblocker. Next...

[Ythill]

Ythill is funny... my paranoia says that he bussed RW and tried to use that to kill lowell yesterday (if lowell is town).

Let me ease your paranoia. I came into this thread explicity suspecting RW, Thok, and Lowell. My main reason for attacking Lowell rather than Thok yesterday was to play devil's advocate and keep conversation going for awhile. When conversation lagged, I got on the Thok wagon. If we had lynched Lowell and he had come up town, I would have backed my scum-self into a corner and would have had to pull some pretty risky position changes to avoid lynching Thok today.

I plan on looking more deeply into Thok's posts very soon, but what sticks in my mind is the way he repeatedly advised town that Lowell was a VI and shouldn't be lynched even though, by that point, suspicion of Lowell had died off. Those sound like the words of a concerned scumbuddy.

...tried to use that to kill lowell yesterday (if lowell is town).

I think we need to lynch lowell today. Because of yesternight, we got a free myslinch (we are 2 myslinches from lylo now) we should use that to clear lowell.

The wording here is odd and suggests that Claus knows Lowell to be town. I'm not very suspicious of Claus at the moment, but this raises my hackles.

If we have a cop with at least 3 living innocents, they should come forward also...

I am not experienced enough to know if this suggestion is the right play, but I'm starting to believe that a cop with any innocent reads (on living players) should come forward. It seems to me that those reads would be on S2 or Lowell... possibly on Seta, Claus, or myslef and that, knowing these reads, process of elimination would allow us to hang scum before LYLO.

I say this because we are way ahead and the time is ripe to put pressure on scum. They will be in a position where killing the cop is crucial (since not many investigations are left) but where he is most likely doc protected and, even if he isn't, his death confirms several townies.

If no cop comes out today, we should hang Lowell. If Lowell is town, a cop should investigate S2 or Seta tonight and then reveal himself tomorrow. I really think this game is in the bag. Way to go town.

[Ythill]

I don't like Ythill telling the cop who to investigate...

Just suggestions, dear. Remember that IMO, if Lowell comes up town either you or S2 is scum. I'd love to have a cop result on one of you in that case and if the cop doesn't already have one (which is doubtful) then I

suggest

he get one.

Thesp is practically confirmed town by his play since replacing in...

I was discussing scum strategy with somebody yesterday and Thesp's play in this game came up. I don't think he is scum but, if he is, we're wrong about town having this game in the bag. If everything starts going sour here I'm going to be taking a very close look at Thesp. For now though, I agree with you.

@ Lowell: You are at L-1 and have been itching to claim anyway so... what's your role?

[Ythill]

I'm assuming my reasons are the retarded ones, since they do exist. If you can raise a defense, do it. But in the meanwhile... yes, either claim or explicitly refuse to.

[Ythill]

No problem Lowell.

The summary of your play in my notes, quoted in entirety, reads:

Seems scummy early. Lurky. Sarcastic defenses. Overall playstyle is scummy; very little hunting. Vote swap at deadline seems pro-town. Votes kurbio without reason

after

his claim. Continues voting without reasons or by following.

You were on the wagons of kurbio, Vaugn, and S2. Regarding kurbio, you unvoted, giving a town read, then attacked him when he suspected you, then voted him after his claim, then you jumped back off when it was apparent the mislynch was going nowhere.

Regarding Vaugn, he was the place your vote kept settling between hops but you never gave believable reasons for that vote.

Regarding S2, you didn’t seem to suspect him until LML dropped off to bus you, then you attacked S2 (and others) heavily and soon thereafter jumped on his wagon. From there you were an ardent supporter of S2’s lynch (#180 was particularly scummy) and the most stubborn player in considering “The Slip” a scumtell. This continues until you jump off, explaining shortly thereafter (while jumping back on) that you only unvoted because the S2 wagon lacked steam. Next you give a town read on S2, but then, as soon as you are attacked, you vote for him again.

You have been repeatedly attacked. Many of the accusations were valid but your defenses, where they existed at all, have been less than sufficient. The level of OMGUS in your play is very telling.

D_O/RW made that voteless push at your L-1 wagon and then heavily manipulated the town to turn away from you. You and he cooperated on the kurbio and Vaugn wagons (kurbio after his claim).

LML/DGB/Thok busses you early (and I don’t blame him) and pushes your wagon heavily at L-1 with no deadline (this serves as bussing you

and

distancing from D_O/RW). Thok replaces to do some damage control, repeating an underhanded defense of you (calling you the VI) though nobody is attacking you. Though he has no reason to clear you other than his belief that you are stupid (which I don’t agree with), he lists you as town (not neutral) in #368 where he also defends you quietly under the premise of attacking kurbio.

[Ythill]

PS: I posted a lot of this in #490 (see below) but you didn't respond to it then.

Lowell: Should have been lynched D1. He follows people, vote hops, refuses to explain his actions, hunts little (and vaguley when he does), and attacks when he should be defending. You know, letting people get away with this sort of thing sets a bad precedent. His posts seem empty in a calculating way, and they are too perceptive to be the work of a VI. There is one saving-grace towntell, but it could just as easily be the WIFOMy act of scum trying to redeem himself on D2.

PE#2.

[Ythill]

Votehopping (especially early in the game) is not a legitimate reason.

It is not the vote-hopping itself, but the timing of it that I find scummy.

You're WIFOMing yourself into believng I'm scum.

When I first joined this site, I read in Mafia Discussion that "WIFOM" was the argument most often stated incorrectly by those who couldn't come up with a good argument. In this case, I agree.

How is pointing out your OMGUS WIFOM? How is pointing out that you have been on all the major wagons (two of which were confirmed town) WIFOM? How is pointing out that you and another scum were the only two to vote for kurbio after his claim WIFOM?

These lazy defenses are working against you Lowell and, if you

are

town, they are working against the town as well.

[Ythill]

@ Lowell: Claus provides a town read on me and you agree with it as a reason to vote me? Please explain.

I can fathom one case for Lowell being town. Thok hammered himself, claiming that his play this game had been poor. He did that

after

I'd made several statements about Thok and Lowell being scumbuddies. I'm assuming that a scum self-hammer is used in the same way as a town scum claim, to freeze the thread with certain evidence apparent. Why would Thok want to punctuate the belief that his buddy is scum?

I'd like others to post any doubts they have about Lowell-as-mafia. If he won't defend himself, maybe we can puzzle this out in spite of him.

I am a tad more suspicious of Seta who has finally forsaken her single-minded campaign against S2 to vote Lowell. Seta, could you extrapolate on your case against Lowell?

I'm leaving my vote because, in spite of all this second-guessing, I still believe Lowell to be the most suspicious. That, and we can afford the mislynch if we are wrong. Knowing his alignment, either way, will provide a good amount of insight into the D1 wagon on him.

[Ythill]

Knowing my alignment won't do much for solving a D1 wagon. D1 wagons never make any sense.

I disagree wholeheartedly. At the very least, it will give us insight into the psychology of our confirmed scum and provide us with sympathy of your OMGUS. That’s

if

you’re town, which I don’t believe you are.

The "case" against me, as far as I can tell, is STILL just "he contributes less than others." This just isn't a good reason.

You are glazing over a lot of stuff and dodging the chance to defend. Again. Let’s assume for a moment that I am scum and you are town. If you are mislynched today with defenses as they stand, others will look at my case and determine that I had valid reasons for suspecting you. If you can defend against my accusations, me driving your wagon looks rightfully scummy. How on earth is it pro-town for you to be dodgy here?

Please try to defend yourself. If it helps, I’ll consolidate my most telling arguments against you.

Post 579 is awful. I'll buy the S2 as scum theory as well.

Just to clarify, are you saying that your suspicions include me (citing your vote), Seta, and S2? Is there an order of preference?

Sorry, I cherry-picked what claus said. What I'm more focused on was your defense of Thok over me yesterday. The best way to find out who is scum is to see what happens when, at the end of a day, a scum is up against a do-nothing townie for lynch.

I see what you mean here. It still seems odd that Yth-scum would enter the thread with suspicions on only three people, two of whom are his buddies. Nor does your theory include me pushing the RW lynch.

I think there's a lot more to be gleaned from how that lynch went down. He may have thought a protracted lynch battle might expose another scum.

Good point. We’ve all kind of glazed over it. I’ll check it out more closely.

[Ythill]

The "psychology" of scum is to try to lynch people who aren't them.

Thanks for stating your opinion.

Please explain why D_O didn't hammer you in #115 or #124. Also please explain why he started arguing against your lynch in #124 and #136.

[Ythill]

I want to see what our newcomer thinks.

QFT.

unvote

This is not a reprieve Lowell. I am simply ensuring that nothing wonky happens while our newcommer catches up.

Howdy stranger.

I have this lingering doubt about Streeflo/Ythill which hasn't subsided...

Seems like a good time to talk about it now. Can you expound upon this doubt?

[Ythill]

I'm kind of glad for the temporary slowdown because BIG THINGS^TM are happening in some of my other games. If you're bored this weekend, check out Mini 542 in which I am confirmed town going into a very interesting endgame. It's a dense read, especially D1, but the last few pages are entertaining.

[Ythill]

I suppose you're right. I thought it was okay because I was only stating public information, but I'll take your advice and shut up. Don't see how anyone could think you were being mean though, with all of those parenthetical disclaimers.

[Ythill]

Okay, it's been six days since the stranger replaced in. Long enough to read 25 pages methinks. And it's been almost two days since Claus asked for a prod. I'm tired of waiting.

Last chance for the stranger to join the discussion. I will check back in later today and hammer Lowell.

[Ythill]

Big incentive for him to jump in then.

Lowell, if I wasn't been being courteous to our newcommer, Thesp's vote would have strung you up last night. I'm not trying to pressure the stranger to post, just giving him time to catch up. He's now had that time.

Without a even a check-in post, I see no reason to keep waiting.

Vote Lowell

Goodnight.

[Ythill]

Hmmmm... I have returned surprised to be alive, next in line for a claim, and Stranger's #1 suspect. It's going to be an interesting day.

I'm vanilla town.

TheStranger is up next.

FOS: Seta

for finally getting over her tunnel vision to lynch town. I'm going to reread our confirmed scum again now that the noise is out of the thread.

Is there such a thing as a non-killing mafia role?

[Ythill]

As promised, a new analysis of our confirmed scum. This is the result of a name-search of each living player (and their predecessors) in the isolated posts of all five confirmed scum players. Please feel free to point out anything I missed.

Me

D_O never mentions Stree/me. RW mentions me once, asking me for a stance on S2. LML fingers Stree as Rishi’s scumbuddy quite early. He later fingers Stree as Lowell’s buddy. Neither of these accusations contain evidence against Stree. DGB never mentions Stree. Thok lists him as neutral without explanation; he never mentions me.

I’m not going to provide opinions here since I’m obviously biased.

Seta

D_O only mentions Beastly/Seta once: an FoS on Beastly for an overdue post. RW doesn’t mention Beastly/Seta. LML doesn’t mention Beastly/Seta. She is one of only two players mentioned by DGB: he agrees with her suspicion of S2. Thok lists Beastly as a lurker and points out that Seta has posted more than him, but never mentions them again.

I find it very telling that Thok raised accusations of tunneling against rite but didn’t ever mention Seta’s tunneling on S2, or agree with me when I mentioned it. Also, see below for two points.

Claus

D_O answers a direct question from Claus and explicitly agrees with CTD’s opinion that kurbio is scummy. RW agrees to try and post a player analysis at Claus’ request; he never mentions CTD.

LML starts with very mild suspicion on Claus and slowly changes it to suspicion worthy of his vote. The case isn’t very strong and was initiated by LML without prompting, so it doesn’t look like distancing to me. His only mention of CTD is a question about suspecting the Lowell wagon. DGB doesn’t mention Claus/CTD. Thok starts with a town read on Claus/CTD.

The light treatment and general agreement doesn’t bode well for Claus, but the LML attack seems like scum vs. town to me. It helps that, if Claus is scum, he has bussed two days in a row.

S2

D_O focuses a good deal of his time and effort suspecting S2 but never votes for him. These efforts at suspicion are not initiated by D_O and could be distancing. RW makes one post suggesting that S2 might be “silly scum” along with Lowell, but doesn’t otherwise mention him.

LML initiates the early attacks on S2 and pushes the S2 “slip” case a bit. DGB’s one post is a vote for S2 without a case. Thok reads S2 as scummy, posting a lot of evidence suggesting kuribo and S2 as buddies. He votes and revotes S2. Thok suggests S2 is Thesp’s buddy while voting for Thesp and, in the very next post, he suggests that S2 was RW’s buddy. He goes on to attribute Ibby’s death to her suspicions of S2 which is a stretch and might have been the reason Thok killed Ibby, noting that two of her three suspicions are now confirmed town.

The interactions here are puzzling. D_O/RW’s light treatment of S2 seems like safe mention of a suspicious buddy without pushing the cases too much. It would later play as suspicion if S2 were to be busted. LML acts the same way but makes a guess as to S2’s buddy. Thok seems to have picked up on this strategy: he attacks S2 vehemently and suggests a slew of possible buddies. This reads as bussing. Also, see below for another point.

Thesp

D_O random-votes rite (now Thesp), argues with him about whether or not to hammer Lowell. RW discusses Thesp’s supposed ability to confirm kuribo’s claim, claims when Thesp requests it, and asks Thesp for a player analysis.

LML random-votes rite and jokingly accuses him of OMGUS but never mentions him again. DGB is silent on this topic. Thok enters with rite on the scumlist for tunneling vs. Lowell. He wants to hear what Thesp has to say about kuribo’s claim and points out that the lack of a night action is a null-tell (not a town tell) on rite/Thesp. Thok answers a few light-content posts from Thesp, votes him for “bussing RW,” and defends against a mild attack from Thesp.

All scum seem interested in Thesp’s response to kurbio’s investigation. This feels like honest role-fishing which is a huge town-tell in Thesp’s favor. Thok’s attack on Thesp also seems like a genuine gambit. It helps that, if Thesp is scum, he has bussed two days in a row.

Global Points

DGB made only one post in which he agreed with Seta’s case and voted for S2. I believe one of them to be our remaining scum and I believe it is a close race.

Do any of you have experience playing with DGB as scum? Which do you think he is more likely to have done: agree with his buddy or vote him?

Of course I understand that this is purely WIFOM but I’d like to discuss it anyway, because our answer may be here.

Thok’s entrance analysis included two odd parenthetical comments. One of those, “(simply for a total lack of presence in the game),” referred to his confirmed buddy, D_O. The other, “(death_omen and rite are also nonentities to some extent.),” was in reference to Seta. This was from his gambit post, so we should be careful, but it could indicate that Seta is our remaining scum.

Current Events

I’ve already mentioned my distrust of Seta’s hop onto Lowell. She gave squat for reasoning.

I am also disliking The Stranger’s timing at sundown yesterday. The mod posted to tell us when he prodded but Stranger still didn’t check in until after the lynch.

((P.S. Not sure how I feel about that bulletproof claim, which I just noticed. Will consider it.))

I have no problem with the votes of Thesp and Claus. Both seemed natural considering their stated reasons and ongoing beliefs.

Conclusion

It’s pretty obvious to me that Thesp and Claus are town. I know I am. That leaves two people who look almost equally scummy and at least two lynches before there is the possibility of a scum win. From my point of view, I think this game is still in the bag.

However, I do understand that you don’t know me to be town so this may not be everyone else’s conclusion.

I think we should hang Seta or the Stranger. I also think that a detailed reread of their interactions will tell us which one is most likely to be our remaining bad guy. I’ll be voting for one of them after doing that reread, which may not be immediately.

[Ythill]

@ Seta: There cannot be both a cop and a doc unless one of the vanillas is lying as town. Everyone but Claus has claimed.

[Ythill]

I’ve put some thought into our odd situation. One of three possibilities has to be true (1) Stranger is lying and therefore scum, (2) we have a doc who is still pretending to be a townie (could be true regardless of whether or not Stranger is telling the truth) or (3) scum targeted S2/Stranger two nights in a row.

(1)
For stranger to be lying, we have to believe that the first no-kill was the result of S2’s absence, in spite of this…

Which gives us an anomoly. Since the day is starting up on the 21st, this means that the mafia no-kill was by design, not caused by inactivity.

…which is

possible

(but maybe not probable) considering that S2 hadn’t posted in almost three weeks and, as the mod said…

Mod: Could we get a prod on someone2 and, if appropriate, a replacement?

He hasn't responded to the last one. Currently replacement hunting.

In this case, what had to have happened was that the mod decided it would be too revealing to wait until the night-action deadline so, knowing that S2 was being replaced, adjudicated the no-kill a day early. Stranger entered and saw what had happened, he came up with the claim-bulletproof-townie gambit and purposely refrained from killing on the next night to make it seem more believable.

I feel like this option makes a lot of assumptions and stands in the face of the evidence rather than in line with it, but

it is possible

.

(2)
The still-hidden doc option is also possible but I don’t understand why one wouldn’t have counter-claimed Stranger, possibly ending the game.

(3)
Scum targeting S2/Stranger twice in a row is the most likely scenario though I’m still not ready to entirely dismiss the other options.

The point here is that, unless we believe (1) or (2) to be true, we now have a new clue. The motive for the second kill attempt could have been as simple as trying to second guess a doc and not considering the possibility of a bulletproof townie but we can ask ourselves why the remaining scum targeted S2 the first time.

Framing Seta doesn’t make sense, silencing S2 was pointless. The only theories that really make sense to me are Seta wanting to dispose of her pawn before he was replaced or Thesp wanting his defense of S2 to pay off (would apply to me too, except I know my alignment).

Comments?

[Ythill]

I guess I should have said "sort of " counter-claimed. The doc would be another good reason for those no-kills and honestly, if I was a doc, I'd seriously suspect Stranger of lying about his claim.

So no, not a full counter-claim but similar, do you understand what I mean?

[Ythill]

Something has occured to me... What's optimal bulletproof strategy?

I've never played bulletproof but I think I'd have a hair trigger on claiming. I might even claim unbidden in the random phase, call investigations to myself, and advise town not to hang me until later in the game. I'd certainly claim if a wagon of any kind formed on me because the strength of a bulletproof townie lies in becoming confirmed before the endgame.

Yet, through two separate players and much suspicion, our BPT holds off until mass-claim?

I'd like to hear

everyone's opinion on this

. How would you play a bulletproof town early-to-mid game? How would you play if you replaced in when The Stranger did? How does your view of S2/Stranger's play jibe with that strategy?

[Ythill]

Ythill on the other hand posts extensively. That might normally be a towntell, but he does it in every game. So it's a nulltell.

Is this the product of a meta read or you simply taking my #489 at face value? I ask because a meta read of me will also reveal that I am comfortable dropping the hammer in just about any scenario. I say this in response to your apparent tendency to suspect hammer votes.

I don't like how you were the last on the RW wagon as well.

This is an extreme oversimplification. I entered the game and said hello (#485) when there were already three votes on RW. I finished my reread quickly and made two back-to-back posts, the first of which was a direct response to Thesp (#489). The second (#490) was my entrance analysis, in which my top three suspects were RW, Lowell, and Thok (in that order). In that analysis I also voted for RW (putting him at L-1). Then he went out of town and, as a precaution, I switched my vote to Lowell, my second suspect (#499).

After RW returned (#510) and before I got a chance to post, Claus voted RW back to L-1 (#513). This left me the hammer which, though I am comfortable placing, is a bit more of an important decision than a lesser vote. I finished the analysis I’d been working on (#515), answered a question about it (#517) and then considered whether or not I should hammer (#518). A milsynch would have put us at LYLO so I was being careful and taking my time but I did hammer RW (#521) and he was scum.

Saying that I was “the last on the RW wagon” is technically true but very misleading. Had he not gone to that color guard competition, Claus would have been the hammer vote and there’s no way I could have voted RW sooner than fourth because he had three votes on him when I replaced in.

Ythill, I suspect you because of how you pushed the Lowell wagon over the Thok wagon.

Other than for a moment while considering the RW wagon (#521), I’d suspected Lowell over Thok all along. My reread of confirmed scum (RW) suggested Lowell over Thok as well, reversing the momentary mind change of #521.

Additionally, I was playing devil’s advocate to Thesp to keep the conversation going, which should be evident from what I said to Thesp (#526) and what I said when I voted for Thok (#556). Remember that D4 was only 34 posts long.

I also think it is uncharacteristic of a calculating player such as yourself to grow impatient enough to hammer Lowell…

Impatience is a macrocosmic human trait. Even professional poker players, who only make a living through incredible patience, go on tilt under the right circumstances.

At the time I was absolutely convinced that I’d been correct all along about our scum, and the only thing standing between me and the victory was being polite to a replacement that was taking a long time to catch up. You’d been prodded and hadn’t even checked in. Note that waiting for you not only caused us to refrain from lynching Lowell for awhile, it effectively stopped the game. In spite of all this, I still gave you almost eight hours to check in before hammering Lowell (#612 & 614).

I'd also like to point out that lynching Lowell was my intent all day. I didn't lynch him out of impatience. I only stopped waiting for you out of impatience. During the eight hour lapse between saying I intended to drop the hammer and actually dropping it, any player who wasn't ready to lynch Lowell could have unvoted him.

…especially with the roleblocker/doctor possibilities.

Lowell had already claimed townie (#585).

I don't like the fact that Thok self-hammered after your vote.

Nothing I can do about this except point out the obvious: this is purely WIFOM. There are any number of reasons Thok might have self-voted. One example might be that the three people suspecting him had been explicitly finding S2 less and less suspicious (meaning that you are scum). Not saying that I believe this, just pointing out that we can assume Thok’s motivation to fit just about any theory.

The most realistic, methinks, identifies Claus as the remaining scum but, as is evident from my reads on Claus, I don’t have any faith in WIFOM as evidence in this regard.

[Ythill]

I would also appreciate everyone's theories on why scum would target S2/Stranger twice over me or thesp.

I already addressed this, quoted below out of respect for your LA status.

The motive for the second kill attempt could have been as simple as trying to second guess a doc and not considering the possibility of a bulletproof townie but we can ask ourselves why the remaining scum targeted S2 the first time.

Framing Seta doesn’t make sense, silencing S2 was pointless. The only theories that really make sense to me are Seta wanting to dispose of her pawn before he was replaced or Thesp wanting his defense of S2 to pay off (would apply to me too, except I know my alignment).

Another possibility might be to tarnish Claus' reputation. S2 was unlikely to ever be lynched because, in spite of a somewhat scummy play-style, those of us who were actively hanging mafia didn’t buy the cases against him. Claus had attacked S2 pretty seriously and then switched to hang RW at an opportune moment. Revealing S2 as town could embroil Claus a bit.

Honestly, I think this thread of discussion is kind of pointless. The two most important questions in determining whether Stranger is really a BPT are: Did the mod fudge the NK deadline by a day so as not to post game breaking evidence against S2? And why didn’t S2 claim when he was under heavy suspicion?

Finally, I apologize for being so wordy lately. Here are some questions I’ve previously posted. I would still like everyone to answer all of them. Thanks to those of you who have.

What is optimal BPT strategy? How would you play BPT early-to-mid game? How would you play it if you replaced in when Stranger did? Have any of you played extensively with DGB? Is there such a thing as a non-killing mafia role?

[Ythill]

I think how I'd play a BPT role is largely irrelevant to how I think someone else is likely to play a BPT (if any different at all).

I agree but I believe that the similarities in the way four people would play it might be telling. Thanks for your answer.

What are the non-killing mafia roles? This possibility seems very important as it would explain a lot of our inconsistencies.

[Ythill]

That was quite an explosion from Claus: lengthy analysis, a sprung trap, and even a claim. Too bad he had to bail, I had some questions for him.

@ Seta: I don't agree with your reliance on disbelieving a player could be targeted twice in a row. I think that it's reasonable play for scum who believes there to be a doc in the game. I also don't agree with your complete acceptance of Claus' claim. The logic that finds me definitively scum as the end result of this process of elimination is only as good as the reasons for elimination and they are far from airtight.

That said, I do agree with your process of elimination when concerning

today’s vote

.

The following scenarios, in order of likelihood, make sense to me: Seta targeting Thesp twice, Claus targeting S2/S3 twice and fake claiming, Thesp targeting S2/S3 twice. I am no longer willing to believe that Stranger is scum, simply because now that we have other possible explanations of why things happened the way they did, I can no longer dismiss the anomaly of S2 somehow submitting a kill before deadline while absent to the point of being replaced.

I believe it is imperative to keep pressure on scum tonight, regardless of whether that person is Seta, myself, Claus, or Thesp. This is best accomplished by a simple statement from our claimed doc.

ABR, please explicitly agree to the following: if I am lynched and come up town, you will randomly select between Thesp and Seta as your target for protection. If Seta is lynched and comes up town you will randomly select between Thesp and myself as your target for protection. Flip a coin or something.

This should reveal our remaining scum by tomorrow, regardless of who it is. I feel strongly enough about this plan that I would rather be mislynched with agreement from ABR than live without that agreement and I really can’t see any reason for townie ABR to disagree so long as I am the one lynched. Here’s to hoping I’m right.

vote: Ythill

I'm @ L-1. If anyone hammers me before ABR responds, hang them tomorrow!

[Ythill]

Unvote.

Okay, I guess I was wrong. I'll explain...

[Ythill]

Bang. I'm town.

That was quite an explosion from Claus...

As a bomb, you would have agreed with me immediately and hammered, been targeted as the NK, and won us the game. It was a risk but I think it was worth it. The question is, why would Claus, as the doc, have bread-crumbed like that? If Seta is town, it will not be Stranger hanging tomorrow.

vote: Setael

[Ythill]

Cross-posted. Does the above answer your question?

[Ythill]

If Setael or myself are the only scum as ABR believes...

It's pretty clear to me, now, that you're a BPT. I agree that ABR coud very well be our remaining scum. Either he or Seta.

I also understand that I was your #1 suspect so whatever. Your vote is were it belongs. Thanks for not hammering me when I'd voted myself.

I trust Thesp to make a good decision here.

[Ythill]

I'm just saving you the shame here. I know who Thesp will hammer. I know who will win. The end result will be the same. But you have the power to put YOUR vote on HER ass and say "there, I did it, I'm the one who hammered the last scum. Praise me".

[Ythill]

Seta, please start being reasonable. You know exactly why I self-voted, because I explained it in #665, the same post where I voted for you. If Claus had been a bomb, as his breadcrumbs indicated, then his doc claim was an excellent scum trap. If not, his breadcrumbs indicated that he was scum considering one fake claim and then going for another.

Either way, my plan would have revealed scum. Because they died if Claus was the bomb, or because Claus/ABR didn't die if he was scum. Think about the permutations and you'll understand.

Our remaining mafioso is Seta, ABR, or Thesp. Not willing to consider Thesp at this point because, while he

could

be scum I don't have any reason to believe he

is

scum and neither does anyone else. And giving ABR the benefit of the doubt because he's a likely NK. Which means the only person left to vote is you Seta. Nothing about that is blindly following ABR.

But lately, Seta's posts have been seeming quite pro-town. I especially like her point about the role-blocker: revealing the RB would end the game with a win for town. Scum wouldn't fish for the role.

So

unvote

for now. I need to feed the kid, then I'll take a little closer look at the game and re-vote.

[Ythill]

The "bang" comes from computer literature. I'm a comp geek. Bang - "!" means "not" in computer lingo.

I’m a geek myself. Been on BBS almost daily for ten years, haunt warez sites, understand 1337, never heard of bang used that way before. An extensive search of online computer slang glossaries revealed no such term. Please cite, with links, a couple examples of the term used in that context.

What I wanted to write in my claim was "bang vanilla townie" - not vanilla townie.

Strange, because you wrote, “Bang. I’m town.” And claimed, in #648, to have omitted “vanilla” on purpose. So which is it? And why did you suggest both?

Ok, let's stop with this charade. I don't think I'm smart enough (or experienced enough) to use it by myself all that well. I hope Thesp and/or Ythill (if not scum) can use the reactions that happened so far.

I'm the doc. I roleclaimed only "town", not "vanilla townie" back there.

Why don’t you explain the use of the breadcrumbs here?

I SWEAR that anyone who hammers that bastard will suffer a quick and unmourned death tomorrow.

Yeah I said I would vote you tomorrow. Sothefuckwhat. And I will.

These are the two most explicit instances where ABR assumes he will be alive tomorrow, there are others that are less explicit. If he’s the doc, why would he not be dead? Even if there’s some plausile strategy in not killing him, why would he assume that to be the play for scum? Rhetorical questions, BTW, now that Claus is back.

Re-read time!

ABR claims to have read the thread in two hours and sixteen minutes. Not unbelievable, but certainly quick for someone who is examining closely for clues. What’s more, he finally posts his night choices in #692, as if seeing them for the first time. But if he had read the thread, why wouldn’t he have see Claus’ #648?

N1 CTD protected rite
N2 CTD missed the night order, then he was replaced D3.
N3 I protected Ythill
N4 and N5 I protected Thesp.

I find it odd that ABR mentions very few details from the thread, all of them regarding Seta, as if he selected her as a target and then read her in isolation, looking for tells.

Apparently my predecessors chose to protect scum day 1.

Rite = scum? Actually, Rite = Thesp. It’s strange then that Thesp magically becomes ABR’s secondary lynch target in #695. This isn’t damning by itself, but it does raise my suspicions.

Also, ABR thinks Seta is scummy because she confirmed him as town, yet he does the same to me. I am town, but there’s no way for ABR to know that definitively and he provides no evidence.

Thesp is town. S2 is a BPT. Seta is MotR. Claus is my PE#1.

However… if Claus is lynched today and comes up doc, we are giving scum the choice of who to NK. If Seta is lynched today and comes up town, Claus-scum will have lived through the night and NKed either me or Thesp while Thesp or myself (as scum) will have been forced to NK Claus.

On alignment evidence alone, I believe Claus is our scum. Strategically speaking it might be better to lynch Seta first, just in case. I do agree that, from Seta’s point of view (if she’s town) she and I are interchangeable here.

I’m voting my conscience here, but I will drop a hammer on Seta. Thesp and Stranger, don’t vote her unless you want her to hang.

vote: Claus

[Ythill]

whut? Extensive search, Ythill??????? Two minutes in google with "bang symbol" gave me this...

Your google fu is stronger than mine (imagine my lips moving out of sync).

Seriously, I entered a lot of permutations but "bang symbol" wasn't one of them. Apologies. Argument withdrawn. And no I've not done much programming.

I have been wondering how much of the last two pages should be chalked up to ABR's insanity. Thanks for clearing up my misread of #695.

Interesting, that's the second time you radically change your mind this time out radically.

You of all people in this game should know how much I change my mind and how dynamically it swings when I do. In this case, I was blinded by the "bang."

Unvote

which leaves only one option

vote:Seta

. LOL. At least I don't have any more decisions to make.

[Ythill]

Errr... in case it's important...

unvote; vote Setael

[Ythill]

Ythill was a tough one. Even after you strung him up, he wiggled and gasped for several hours before finally dying. Sometime during that grotesque display, he coughed out his last words. They sounded like bad news...

Bah... go... town...

[Ythill]

Fonz, apology accepted and no problem and all that jazz but, admittedly, the early day start eventually was a deciding factor in me clearing S2. Great game though. I'm not very experienced, but that's the toughest endgame I've seen yet.

Not for ABR though.

While we're bragging, check out my entrance analysis. Two of my top three were scum. One of my MotR was scum. All my towns were towns. Woot!

And, finally, my apologies for the vote-hop blowup the day I was lynched. I REALLY thought Lowell was the last scum and, when he wasn't, I was so floored that I was acting like a bozo. I should have just looked back at what I'd already posted and thought through the Seta vs. S2 question. Hopefully I've learned my lesson.

[Ythill]

I wouldn't say solely, but that was one of the reasons. Obviously, the self-hammer did what you wanted.

Bravo to Thesp, BTW. Dude, I hope I never meet you when our alignments are opposed.