Mini #643: Time Capsule Mafia, Game Over

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Vote: yosarian2

for voting ythill for voting darox.

I don't think we can actually draw anything from the darox votes. . . but one of these days, that sort of cavalier attitude toward wagoning is going to bite a town in the ass.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

On topic now and I'm pretty much going to have to throw my lot in with Ythill on this one, if anyone has joined a wagon subtly hoping that it would lead to a quick-lynch it's those who've seen Ythill now on four votes for an "indiscretion" that i see, at this stage, as brilliant town play.

Brilliant? Its just an extension of the "look how cool I am, I started a bandwagon because the random vote stage is meaningless, but don't you dare call my obviously anti-town action anti-town, that makes

you

scummy."

Ythill: Your vote hurt the town by virtue of destroying any value the early random wagons might have had.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

[quote="clammy"Hang on, that sentence is a completely false and self-defeating interpretation, it starts with Ythill being a VI or similar ("look how cool i am...") and ends with the assumption that Ythill's action was clearly anti-town, a point that is popular right now but is sure as heck up for contention as I for one don't believe it's done anything but draw out gaugeable reactions already in who took what action in an easy jump-on-Ythill moment. You then go on to say that Ythill is being somewhat OMGUSy, but if anything he's calling what he states is a trap a trap and voting based on a ploy that got 4 suckers in early. [/quote]

VIs tend to be anti-town ("anti-town" being defined as actions that are bad for the town, not necessarily scum), so that's not really contradictory. I don't think ythill is really an idiot, I just think he's trying to be a little too clever.

If it's so obviously anti-town, how come the only explanations for that theory are so full of holes? My vote was a null-tell. However, opportunism and pushing a null tell as an indicator of alignment are both scummy.

I agree that your vote was a null-tell, in the sense that its become the cool thing to do, bandwagon page 1. But acting as if you've somehow done something meaningful by getting people to say, "hey, guys, maybe we shouldn't put someone at L-3 on page 1,"

that's anti-town because its such a poor trap.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Wow, I screwed up like everything in that post. Where I say "darox wrote," what I meant was ythill.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Well, it was a minor scumtell, so no, I didn't really think you were all that likely to be scum. If a random lynch is, say, 25% likely to hit scum, then a minor scumtell like that might bump it up to, say, 35%. Worth a vote this early in the game, but not really a big deal in the big picture.

Your massive over-reaction to a perfectly logical and thought-out vote, however, is a much larger scumtell. I've now moved to the point where I'd be perfectly happy seeing you hang today.

I. . .

support yosarian2's views.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I don't understand why a pro-town person would react like that to my simple, and logical, explination; I do understand why a scum might try to undermine the person who was leading a wagon against him. So, your reaction to my vote is the main reason I think you're scum here.

Exactly. I was sort of rolling my eyes at the "trap," but all this OMGUSy persistence is really tripping my scumdar.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

It sounds to me like ythill is saying that he knows town would have jumped on the wagon, yet somehow he would have been able to tell who they are, and who the scum are.

But all he's really done is tunnel in on yosarian, in spite of yosarian reasonably saying why the trap was a bad plan.

I've heard enough.

Unvote, vote ythill.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Actually, it probably just suggests scum screwing with us. No reason scum can't start with paper, right?

Possibly. . . but that seems like a quite a stretch for scum to try to pull over our heads. Its not like that's going to really change our lynching behavior.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Somehow I don't know if I believe that - what would the goal of this game be if there are no scum? Simply to discover that there aren't scum? If so, we win.

Mod:

We. . . win?

No?

Seriously, though, I'd say the nightkill makes it fairly evident that there's a scum group, and until information indicates otherwise, I'm going to assume that it was scum bullshittery. I'm still not clear on why they'd try to do that, but I don't have a better explanation.

Vote: melikefood.

Based on the end of day 1, do you think ythill was scum?

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I didn't really like the werewolves bit, it just seemed like distraction on top of distraction. Had to start somewhere. That's one of the problems with no-reveal, it doesn't leave you with a lot to go off of in the morning.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

seriously, who started this line of questioning, has simul-posting never happened in one of your games before TheSweatpantsNinja?

Um, I think you have the wrong guy. I buy the simulposting thing, but that doesn't make him less scummy. . . he's yet to contribute anything pro-town.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

The Vanilla townie sample PM states that the vanilla townies have no Paper, so I'll just go with that for now and assume that anyone with paper has a power.

That contradicts ythill's claim. Also, the "currently has zero sheets of paper" pretty definitely implies a mechanic for gaining more.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Yeah. I'm not thrilled with MLF's play, but I don't think he's the best lynch for today.

Unvote, vote roffman.

Roffman, what sort of questions are you hoping to "pressure" MLF into answering? What changed your mind about ythill, or have you changed your mind?

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Seriously?

You'd at least hope for a "this-forum-is-bullshit-I-quit" sort of post.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Well, if the second paper was accurate, then ythill was town. If the first paper was accurate, then either there are two scum to start (which with the no-reveal, isn't inconceivable), or roffman was scum. Which also certainly isn't inconceivable.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

do not like though how quickly this came about. The argument about MLF is stemming mostly from his day 2 actions and if we were so convinced he was scum yesterday then why did the pile up on Roff happen?

Exactly. Darox's jump on the wagon seems fishy to me. I don't remember him pushing mlf yesterday.

Vote darox.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

This was pretty much all I was doing D2.

Examples? The innocent result on mlf isn't doing you any favors.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I had asked before if there was a possible role that investigated dead players for alignment and it seems plausible in a no reveal game for something like that. What would be the point of having paper if the uses of it are ignored?

Yeah, I'm going to assume that the majority of papers are going to be accurate, because, I mean, in a no-reveal game we're already sort of behind the 8-ball.

Regarding the "not mafia" thing, it doesn't sound like darox meant that clammy and mlf

were

third-parties, only that they might be, but still, it seems a little opportunistic, so my vote will stay.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I hadn't posted good content because I am really confused. We have very little info (a cop claim and no idea about alignments of the dead people due to no-reveal). There is very little info to work with (the cop claim only tells us "MLF and clammy are town or GF"), so I don't know what to say.

Happy?

No.

Vote pacman.

Can you explain who your top suspects are and why? (And OMGUS doesn't count as a reason.)

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Ah, I see on second glance you unvoted after you voted rather than the other way around. Oh well. Still glad you decided to start saying who you suspected.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Perhaps the "no scum faction" message we got was a result of the ivy seed being placed in the 2002 capsule?

That would make sense.

Okay, so we'll let Pacman live for his seeds?
If so, who we lynching now?

Man, its a good thing for you you have a cop investigation on you, because you just keep doing things that make me twitch. Why do you believe pacman's claim, or more to the point, what about his claim makes you believe he's protown?

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

If anything, I'd say pacman's role leans anti-town, since the odds are his first seed was false.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I'm not sure I understand why his role necessarily indicates that he's scum, if you could elaborate TSPN, that would be nice. What was "false" about his seed?

I said anti-town, that is, I'm assuming that there are in fact scum in this game, and as such, a note that tells us that there are no scum isn't helpful. Maybe pacman didn't know what the seeds do. Maybe he's

scum

and didn't know what the seeds do. I believe the seed claim. I don't think its an indicator of his alignment one way or another, and based on his play, he's still a top suspect.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Sure. . . (although if we had a lynch

list

, we'd have to have other suspects) [/troll]

But yes. At least, I'm not taking off my vote.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Townie, no paper.

It doesn't really surprise me that some townies have paper and some don't.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Post-massclaim conclusions:

Either pacman's seeds are false, or darox is lying.
Darox' role is eminently believable, because, well, we have to have

some

way of concluding alignment off of lynch, right?
Pacman's play has not been pro-town,

and

he never made any substantive comment on roffman.

So I think pacman is the lynch for the day.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

A morticion, in a no reveal game, is still much weaker for the town then just having a normal game with reveals. What if the mortician dies night one?

In a no reveal game especally, the town really needs information roles. The game just isn't balnced without them.

I agree. As such, I believe both you and darox.

Why Pacman? Why not IcemanE? A tally man? someone who can give us a number the next day? what does it matter that we know how many notes are in 2008's capsule? What if he left something off like the ability to take and or replace notes in a capsule. Seems more of a role for a tally man instead of a note counter. If Pacman has seeds and if Pacman is telling the truth about the 2005 capsule then maybe Pacman is the only one who can use the plant or whatever when it comes out of the capsule.

Well, see the "darox is lying or the seeds are," not-at-all false dilemma, as I'm about to get to.

False dilemma, guy. Had you been considering that SOMEONE MIGHT HAVE BEEN FAKECLAIMING HERE??

I was considering this. That's why I said "either the seeds are false

or

darox is lying." Fakeclaiming would be a form of lying. I suppose its possible

you're

fakeclaiming, but seeing as how it'd be a pretty abysmal fakeclaim, I doub it.
Why didn't I discuss about roff? BECAUSE I was confused. That discussion was really difuse, and I was not completely sure to jump for someone.

Also, some OMGUS.

Yosarian, I see where you're coming from on RS, but I still think pacman is the better lynch.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I'm still feeling like I'm missing something key here...what did darox say that contradicts pacman's role claim about the seeds? How do the two role-claims contradict each other?

Either there are scum via darox, and therefore pacman's seed is false, or there are not "scum," and darox' result of "scum" is false.

I suppose there's some wiggle room in which darox' guilty results don't necessarily correlate with traditional scum, but the key point is: pacman's first seed was almost certainly false.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Ah, ok...so you're now assuming that darox's seed left a random paper in the capsule? What are you basng that on? I mean, I'm sure the seed probably did something, but that wouldn't be my guess as to what.

Well, if pacman's seed wasn't responsible for the paper, then we have the coincidence of one item placed in the capsule with no apparent effect, and one paper out of the capsule with no apparent source. I find that coincidence pretty unlikely.

the fact that I missed to type "I'm protown" into my role claim

That was darox, actually. Go ahead and tack up "misrepresentation" on your list of things I'm trying to get you lynched for.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Deadline is imminent, I think pacman would be a better lynch, but oh well.

Unvote, vote Rotten Snitch.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I think the last remaining scum is almost certainly one of iceman/pacman. Neither of them were on the rs wagon, iceman was a latecomer to roffman (and again, pacman wasn't on it at all). I'm inclined to lean iceman for today, if only because we've almost hit the 2005 capsule anyway, and pacman can be better evaluated then.

Vote iceman.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

hey guy, you are again with your false dilemmas...

Hey guy, I'm not creating a dilemma for anyone else. I said

I think

the scum is almost definitely one of you and iceman. And which part of my logic is fail? The part where you haven't been on either the scum wagon? That's fact. The part where your seed almost definitely was anti-town? That's not absolute fact, but it seems pretty self-evident to me.

What's most interesting is the conclusion:

hmm... I need to take a reread on iceman. I think that I will have a decision tomorrow morning.

To me, this post reads: "I don't like the way tsn is narrowing in on me, but maybe I can still get iceman lynched today." The only reason I'm not voting for you today is to give you a chance with that second seed.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

*see above.*

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Reasons I didn't jump into:
roffman: I explained it before. The discussion was extremely annoying, and I was really confused.
RS: I was not completely sure about jumping on him. I was more suspicious of you. Then, the claim confused me still more, and then the deadline killed RS.

OK, so you have reasons to give. That hardly makes it logical failure to say "scum are less likely to be on the wagons of their buddies." Also, on iceman, saying you aren't ready to make a decision yet is an excellent way for scum to test the waters before jumping either way. You're setting the groundwork to jump either way.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Saying "does not compute" is not an argument. Neither is saying "your logic fails."

You want to see some bad logic?

Which part of your logic is fail? Your logic during the day 3. You had been tunnelvisioned on lynching me. You had used lots and lots of logical fails trying to get me lynched, that's what I'm saying.

So, in other words, my logic is fail

because my logic is fail.

That's circular. That's not an argument. Its not a point. Its just noise.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I'm just going to sum up everything you're saying about the false dilemma: I am making an assumption that when we have one action with no apparent consequence (your seed being placed in the capsule), and one result with no apparent cause (the note coming out of the capsule), at the same time,

it seems like a pretty reasonable guess.

I'm curious as to why you're so vehemently opposed to having that note pinned to you, since, according to you, you don't even know what the seeds do, so, according to you, you don't have any way of telling that the seed didn't result in that note.

I was really screwed due to the fact that I missed both scum wagons, so I tried to find out why was iceman being lynched .I didn't have the decision I promised because I saw this and I forgot what was I going to do

That is your story, yes. But when you spend one post attacking one person, and then at the end say, "well, I'm going to reread and maybe I'll still jump on the leading wagon,"

that is suspicious.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Well. . . I suppose that's a possibility. I'd say I'd be willing to lynch him anyway if there's no visible effect. I am assuming that there will be some kind of effect.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Yeah. . . all the switching is making me lean back toward it being a desperate scum gambit.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Go team! I think this game may be an argument why no-reveal is never really fair.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Well, its not really your fault that you got hung for being the probable buddy of a guy who wasn't actually scum. That was an unintended consequence.

Pacman, I honestly did think your seed caused the note, I couldn't think of another likely cause.