Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

[saulres]

Junpei, you ever learn anything useful from your questions at the start of this game?

[saulres]

I don't understand what your argument is with the "gems" posts. They seem to support CC, not bring CC down.

[saulres]

as does inclusion of an ability that she 'doesn't know what it does'.

While I'm not against an Amrun lynch (still waiting on her response to my request for reconcilliation I'd like to point out that she wasn't the only Amazing (see: confirmed townie Ace) who also didn't know what the ability does. Current speculation is that it was just flavor.

[saulres]

I'm very concerned about us still having lurkers this late in the game. The lack of posts from Luxury and Snake makes me worried (but not convinced) that we're doing a lot of town-on-town arguments here while scum is just sitting back and letting us mislynch.

[saulres]

4nxi3ty,

Throughout this game I've seen places where all you seem to be concerned about is not getting killed. Why, as a VT, are you

so

concerned about that?

[saulres]

Also something else I noticed about your posts but don't think saying exactly what is pro-town.

Amrun, that quote was directed at Luxury. Do you think it's pro-town now to say what you were thinking then?

[saulres]

You've taken to ignoring me now that you're tunneling on CC?

[saulres]

No, I don't.

Well I hope you feel it's the right time before it's too late to make any use of it. Unless we hit scum with our lynch this could very well be the last day, if Vi's theory of 3 remaining scum (which is what I think she left believing) is accurate.

It might be the last day anyway if the lynch and the vig shot both hit townies. So any information to make sure both of those don't come true is extremely valuable. I'm not sure when you're saving your information for...

[saulres]

Really looking forward to those thoughts, Snake. I'm not placing any votes bringing someone to L-1 just so you can quickhammer again, until after you've posted *some* kind of useful comments.

I'm almost done with my whole read-through (just got to day 4). I did a semi-PBPA of the rest of you noting scummy things and townie things. I have a few items I need to go back and look at, and then I'll have my town-to-scum scale done. I'll use that to decide who I'm willing to hammer if the opportunity arises, and who I'll send the tiger after, but as stated earlier I don't think it's in our best interest to publicize that information in case the scum have more redirections (if they even had any in the first place).

I do think there are a couple of people whose flips would be more informative than others, but I'm not sure I should post those thoughts because I'm very worried we're in a MyLo situation now so "informative" wouldn't be a good reason to lynch today.

[saulres]

Snake, what's the flavor of your cop ability?

Snake, would like an answer for this too when you post. Thanks.

[saulres]

How could sharing those things hurt?

By giving scum, if they have another redirect, the knowledge of who they should redirect from. My understanding of the Redirector role is that the redirector targets the target, not the performer. So last night it was reasonable to assume that they'd need to redirect off of 4nxi3ty or off of you. I don't want to give them that information again.

I see that the possibility exists but is rare that they'd target me to redirect my action, but there's nothing I could do about that anyway (and it does say it's extremely rare).

[saulres]

well, are you gonna support me or not? depending upon your answer i may continue to ignore you.

4nxi3ty, if you're town, please start acting like it. "Blackmailing" me to respond to questions is not doing that. Neither, in my opinion, is the single-minded tunneling you've been doing on CC. Unless you have reason to think there's only one scum left, I'd like to see some scumhunting from you that isn't zero-ing in on one person.

[saulres]

I have a theory...

Show of hands: How many people yesterday thought that second to Vi, Ace was the most townie of the rest of us remaining?

[saulres]

Ah, scratch that. It wouldn't have proven anything anyway.

[saulres]

One more question, 4nxi3ty. Something I didn't understand.

Are you seriously going to "plead the fifth" again?

sure why not as long as junpei doesn't listen to you.

What was the concern here about Junpei?

[saulres]

I am not opposed to taking Junpei out of the equation

if

my analysis determines he's likely scum. And however he flips will be very telling for the setup.

But

-- I'm very concerned that we could be at MyLo, so I'm not going to rush into voting Junpei if my analysis comes out with him in my top 3 town reads. Unless someone can put forth a convincing argument that there's a SK in the game, or only 2 remaining scum.

[saulres]

Newbie card: I don't have that experience to tell how many are standard. Vi does, and before the vigs were revealed, she was changing her mind between 3 remaining scum or 2 scum and an SK. After my claim, she thought there were 3 remaining scum with no kill of their own.

pedit: You know Amrun suggested it first, right?

[saulres]

ONCE AGAIN

THOSE POSTS ARE SAYING VI'S THEORY AS I UNDERSTOOD IT IS DUMB

NOT THAT GNR IS TOWN

BECAUSE SAYING GNR IS TOWN IN

THAT SITUATION ASSUMES SCUM SHOT VI

AND I DO NOT THINK THAT HAPPENED

READING COMPREHENSION, PEOPLE

Amrun, what do

you

think happened to the missing shot on N1?

[saulres]

i have a theory of why riggs never flipped penn, would like to test the validity of it sometime this weekend.

4nxi3ty, what was this theory and were you able to test it?

[saulres]

Would like to see Snake's thoughts and a response to my question but other than that, my review is done, and I feel pretty good about my reads now.

[saulres]

Nuh-uh. I've already said why I don't want to reveal my thoughts. Plus my track record for reads hasn't been all that good, honestly. So I should have said, "I feel pretty good about my vote and my vig for today/tonight".

Plus, I'd think you wouldn't want me placing my vote first (or second, or third) if scum and/or SK could just all jump on it if I'm wrong and cause town to lose.

I still don't want to make any move until Snake posts

something

though...

[saulres]

If town loses this game, 4nxi3ty, I'm going to blame you, for playing the way you are. How in the world do you think what you're doing is pro-town?

Oh, right, you still think I'm scum. Let me remind you of something.

well this is concerning some of my reads have been dead on while

others way off

, not gonna waste my time pushing a lynch since

i have very little credibility

.

[saulres]

@DDD

: If you do do something about 4nxi3ty, I'd request that you force-replace him rather than modkill him. I've put a

lot

of effort into this game, and whether I win or lose, I'd rather do it on my own actions rather than have an asterisk next to it.

Also, prod Luxury?

[saulres]

Saulres,

earlier you voted and then unvoted Anxiety

saying you agree with our theory about how the nightkills and lack of them have occurred then saying that you believe that something completely different happened. I don't care if it gives mafia information I want you to explain it in greater dept because right now I'm seeing Anxiety as very likely scum via the D1 roleblock.

I've done that a lot. Could you give a specific post reference so I can figure out what you're asking about?

[saulres]

Where else could the second kill have possibly come from?

...

You know, you answered this question yourself when you first came into the game as a hydra.

I find a three person scum team highly unlikely and can very much see this being two scum and a SK

Of course that was before the double-vig was revealed, so you changed your mind later:

I don't see there being a SK in the setup at all with shared vig claims.

But it's still possible, no?

Another question for you: If you think scum have a normal kill, and 4nxi3ty took that shot N1, what happened to the N2 shot?

[saulres]

I will post some decent content tonight which will be in

<expired>.

[saulres]

Patience dear boy patience

Not my strong suit

I did answer the flavour question Saulres. I told you what it is. If I post my role PM flavour I break rule 16

Ace was able to do it without breaking rule 16.

My neighborizing ability is where I invite an audience member up to the stage, enabling us to talk privately.

So was Fishy.

The form of my roleblock is street magic - I can perform this to one person a night, and they get distracted from their other actions.

So were Junpei and I, describing and naming the tiger we have partial control over and explaining how we have to use it.

I'm sure you can come up with a way to paraphrase the flavor without quoting.

[saulres]

Thanks, I appreciate it (even if you do think I'm scum.)

To reply to your accusations against me, I do see how you can think that by keeping my reads secret I'm doing so to add my vote to a winning wagon, but if you look at it as though I'm town who believe scum can redirect the tiger based on who I tell it to attack, you can see why it's pro-town to not want to reveal that.

Also, if you look back at the game as a whole, you'll see I had several opportunities to join winning wagons, but didn't. I believe the

only

one I did that with was Riggs, and he took that option out of my hand so you don't find me on

any

lynch wagons.

You and your slot, however... Wanna see what I noticed about it when I was doing my review?

L-1 on Amrun already? Are we seriously playing a game of quicklynches here? Im not voting yet, I need to take time and look at whats going on here.

And yet...

Day 1, Locke hammers town:

Unvote; Vote: springlullaby

Day 2, you replace in, and on your first content post, put Riggs at L-1 (a very townie-looking thing to do once he flipped scum):

VOTE: Guy_Named_Riggs This now puts you at L-1

Day 3, you return from V/LA and hammer town, on an incredibly weak reason:

Ok I'm back.

<snip>

people want Fishy hammered, I'm fine with that. His responses have been less than helpful on the most part and I don't see anyone else currently worthy of lynching

<snip>

VOTE: FishyTheFish

Those aren't the actions of someone who "take

time and look

at whats going on here"

Further, I have this setup speculation, based on Vi's theory that scum don't have a night kill. That means there's a SK in the game, and, unless Junpei's scum, an ability to redirect night actions (the vig and the SK) to get their night kills done. In a setup like that, who needs a rolecop more -- town or scum? Scum, who would also benefit from it being during the day so they can act on it that night.

This isn't an OMGUS vote, even if it looks that way. When I was done with my review, you were in my top few scumspects for the reasons I just put forth, as well as a few other things I noted.

Vote: Snake

[saulres]

What do you think about my argument against Snake?

[saulres]

We have less than 5 days until deadline and two slots (3 players) who are holding up the game. I've seen Snake online 3 times since he last posted and he's 2 hours away from 48 again. Regfan has posted as a mod since Luxury last posted here, but Luxury hasn't posted any content here in upwards of 58 hours.

Is it a common scum tactic to delay until no lynch?

[saulres]

DGAF?

I still say the VT pile has at least one scum

What about the VCA? What's your thoughts (and everyone's really) on scum being on the lynches?

Here's my handy link to my post with color-coordinated names.

As you can easily tell, there

has

to be scum on the Fishy lynch -- unless you think there's only 1 scum left, or that 4nxi3ty and I are scumbuddies. So that one's not really all that helpful.

But the other two -- what are the odds that Riggs is the only scum on both wagons?

Notes about who was considering hammering on the other two (apologies if this isn't complete):

On SL, deadline was approaching, and both Junpei and Anxi3ty claimed they would hammer. Junpei was trying to give SL a chance to claim. 4nxi3ty, for some reason, rather than do the hammer himself, asked Junpei to do it. 4nxiety's claim also was that would hammer "one hour and thirty minutes" from the first post I quoted, but that time came and went without him doing anything, and Locke came along and hammered.

On Riggs, a week before deadline, when Riggs was at L-3, I explained I was going to vote for him in 22 hours and was willing to hammer if that's where he was. After I posted that, Luxury voted him and Snake came in replacing Locke and voted him as well. I would have hammered but Riggs took that out of my hands by self-hammering.

[saulres]

Junpei is my strongest read and that that outweighs his claim.

Do you mean you don't believe his claim, or you want to lynch him despite his claim?

[saulres]

Scum tend to not do that if they are even a little bit aware of how bad it looks.

How about if they're not particularly aware, because every time they place a vote it was after just replacing in or returning from time off and saying "I'm in/back, haven't had much time to look at the thread, but since everyone else is voting

xxxx

I will too?"

[saulres]

it's confirmed that Vi was shot either N1 or N2 removing his bulletproof protection

That's the second time you've said that.

Why do you think it's "confirmed"?

[saulres]

if our vigilante goes through BP vests. The latter is technically possible but seems

a lot less plausible

,

Not to me.

Note that with "traditional" flavor, Serial Killers use knives to perform their kills.

As they do not use bullets in this case, they can kill players regardless of whether they are Bulletproof.

Non-bullets go through bulletproof. 2 bulletproofs in the game and a way to get them killed without lynching. I don't see that as being "less plausible"

at all

.

[saulres]

I can't vouch for Junpei's telling the truth, obviously, but his description in the post he claimed in matches mine, including the tiger, its name, our requirement to use it, the fact that we don't have reliable control over it (but rather only some control), as well as there being various factors which could cause the tiger to not do what we each individually told it to do, without giving us any specifics on those various factors.

I did not know Roy was in the game until he claimed, and his description in the above-quoted post is similar enough to what's in my role PM that I do believe he's Roy, although his alignment could be either way (or even 3rd party I assume). Unless, of course, my crazy out-of-this-world-theory is true...

pedit: Dammit, CC. I had thought about that second theory (odd/even) but didn't want to publicize it in case the scum hadn't guessed it. If there is a redirector, I hope it's on the target and not on the performer. That would make sense, because otherwise the claims could break the vig, and is the reason I don't want to publicize today who I think is scum -- I don't want to tip off who a scum redirector should target.

If there's no scum redirector then Junpei's confirmed scum in my eyes, but of course there's no way to find out in our partial reveal setup.

[saulres]

Hopefully a Snake replacement can be found soon. Unless of course we lynch him soon. Speaking of which...

Have any of you townies given thought as to why Ace was shot, instead of Snake, a PR who could potentially out at least one of them? Granted it's a bit of WIFOM, and maybe they were hoping to get Snake lynched today, but with none of them bringing it up, and nobody joining my (lonely) wagon on him, I think that's just more telling that he's probably one of them.

[saulres]

This rule suggests that Snake has 41 more hours about until he is replaced

Hopefully DDD sent the prod earlier than he posted that he did. That would take it down to 17 hours.

SnakePlissken 3 days 7 hours

I know I PMed DDD about Snake as soon as I saw him hit 2 days. Or maybe even 2 hours before that, I forget.

[saulres]

Amrun could have killed him because of the "amazing" thing

I don't follow this thought. Ace was Amazing. Snake claims to be Amazing. What do you think Amazing does, let you retarget something coming at you? If so, then why is Ace dead?

I lean towards thinking it's just flavor as all three Amazings have claimed.

[saulres]

I don't think partial vigs would be able to shoot through a BP vest and if they did it would completely remove the point of there being a BP-Scum if Riggs did indeed have a BP.

Unless there's an SK in the game.

Yes I'm still doing setup speculation because understanding what happened, and whatever today and tonight's flips reveal, is going to be, in my opinion, critical to getting town a win.

The theory which makes most sense to me is this:
1) There's an SK with a gun.
2) Scum do not have guns (no traditional kill) and can accomplish their kills by redirecting those who have them, and/or by having a half-time vig on their side. The redirection is why they need the rolecop, to find the SK and the two vigs (or the one non-scum vig) if we didn't claim.

In that setup, town doesn't need the rolecop, because he wouldn't return anything useful on anyone except the SK; if scum have no normal kill, a rolecop wouldn't reveal they're scum no matter how many times they're hit.

[saulres]

why do you think there is a sk?

Because there was a scum bulletproof, and I don't believe that bulletproof would protect them from a tiger.

Riggs 19: Also, do we have the same ability?Since we both did the bullet dodge trick, does that mean you have a bullet dodge power when it is needed? Because I do.

[saulres]

You do realize it was likely GNR was lying about being bulletproof, right? He based his bullet proof claim on him being Penn Gillette and doing the bullet trick. He didn't flip Penn Gillette

I think he knew that in the QT, he was expected to pretend to be Penn. Vi made that clear (as clear as Vi could make anything) in her QT, posts 1115 through 1189 and Junpei's 1186.

The first two posts in the QT were DDD, no doubt introducing Teller to "Penn".

[saulres]

Incidentally, has anyone else looked at Snake's profile and seen when he last visited the site?

[saulres]

I'm V/LA at weekends

That's great. But it doesn't explain the prior 48-hour period of no posts whatsoever.

9.) Treat this game as a commitment. If you are going to be V/LA please post in thread or send me a PM.
10.) Players must post every 48 hours

[saulres]

I'm not sure where the full case on Amrun is, and I'm getting very nervous about the time. I'm worried I may need to tip off who I might be sending the tiger after.

So other than the current vote count, where do people stand on making an actual lynch happen? I believe CC is willing to vote for Junpei, Junpei is willing to vote for 4nxi3ty, and... that's it? Even if I were to join one of those two (which I'm not saying I am willing, I'm just saying to make a point) that's not enough to lynch. Do people think a no lynch is going to be better since we might be in MyLo?

I really think one of several people would be good to help nail down the setup, I'm just worried that it's too late...

[saulres]

I have explained on more than one occasion that while I'm V/LA at weekends

Oh, and for the record? I've checked again, and you didn't say you'd be V/LA this weekend. At least not in this thread.

[saulres]

@Mod

: How long is Snake on V/LA for?

I'm curious if we should keep waiting for him to post something or if he's not going to be available until after deadline.

[saulres]

...

Your avatar has a V/LA banner right now. So I thought you started a new one.

What I'd like to see is some sort of defense from you on the case I put against you.

[saulres]

So other than the current vote count, where do people stand on making an actual lynch happen? I believe CC is willing to vote for Junpei

So since I posted this...

CC has posted asking people to move their votes.
Amrun has posted but not said anything about moving from Junpei
4nxi3ty has posted to start a brand new wagon with only one person on it.
Snake has posted and still not answered anything.
Junpei has posted elsewhere.
Luxury (and neither head) has posted anywhere on site.
I've posted but still won't tell where I'm willing to move due to reasons I've repeatedly stated.

Let me try another tack: What's everybody waiting for?

I'm waiting for Luxury to post something, for Snake to respond to my attack, and for a wagon I'm willing to put my vote on to get to L-1 (or for more than three people to counter my silence and explain to me why it's in town's interest for me to reveal who I'm willing to vote for, rather than force scum to have to guess who I might target with the tiger).

[saulres]

am willing to change to Anxiety to have a lynch occur

Only willing to lynch anxiety or junpei

With Junpei already on him, and me, that makes 4 and a lynch. I'm okay with that.

Vote: 4nxi3ty

[saulres]

I believe there's an SK in the game, and I believe the block on you on N1 prevented a kill. I think you're likely the SK, and remotely the scum. So I'm likely voting for some anti-town faction, and even if I'm not, your flip will help clarify setup speculation, giving me more information on who to send the tiger after.

[saulres]

Yes, I'm worried about MyLo. I'm not as worried about it as I would be if I though there were three remaining scum, but I don't think that's the case. And if it were solely lynch info I wanted I could have hammered Amrun. With you I get what I think is a 66% chance of hitting anti-town.

Plus, no one's joining me on the lynch I believe will hit scum, on someone who's not defending himself at all, power-lurking at the end of the day (he's been onsite again today). No one's moving their votes anywhere useful. So I will, because with a compulsive vig that we don't really know how it works, the likelihood of town losing tonight is high whether we mislynch or not.

[saulres]

It's not just SK -- he could be scum who was blocked. We don't know what happened with a bullet on N1, but since there was no confirmed bullet shot on

both

Nights 1 and 2, it's unlikely Vi was shot twice. Especially since she herself said she was only 1x bulletproof. That means at most she was shot once, and we have a confirmed roleblocker who said he blocked 4nxi3ty on N1. It seems reasonable to put two and two together and say 4nxi3ty shot

someone

on N1 and someone shot Vi on N2 to attempt to remove the bulletproof, since the bulletproof revelation only happened on Day 2.

Of course scum could have intentionally not killed anyone night 1, but then I would have thought

someone

would have been surprised at a kill actually happening. The closest I can find is Amrun saying in 626 "I want to comment that sottyrulez is a really weird scumkill because several people suspected them. It's just... strange. I want to note their suspicions for possible threatkills." Once I figured out what "threatkills" meant, I realized that's not confusion over the kill happening, that's confusion over who the victim was.

As to your second question, I honestly can find scummy things about everyone in this game. I can also find townie things about everyone. So I have a scale. Amrun doesn't fall as far to the scummy side as Snake or 4nxi3ty, and her flip would be nowhere near as setup-clarifying.

[saulres]

What if the mafia just shot Vi N1 and then again when she died.

1) Vi wasn't shot to death. She was tigered.
2) Vi was adding confusion to the game due to her PR. I don't think it's in scum's interest to try to kill someone N1 who's just a source of confusion, no matter what GNR told them at night.

In my theory the N1

and

N2 shots are accounted for. Plus it makes sense of the redirect of the tiger (in case scum thought Vi's bulletproof protected her multiple times). My theory, whether it's right or not, accounts for everything. Yours doesn't (where did the shot go N2?)

[saulres]

Maybe the mafia and your tiger both struck Vi on the same night, thus accounting for the missing kill. voila.

...

What?

The tiger killed Vi on N3, the same night Ace was shot -- the first shot we've seen during the game.

I swear, sometimes I think I'm the only one reading this game

[saulres]

It's not based totally on speculation. 4nxi3ty has done many anti-town things this game, you thought so yourself for a while (or your other head did -- I'm not sure who I'm talking to currently). We also had an announced roleblocker blocking him on a night where no one was shot, don't tell me that the most you can read from that is WIFOM, when scum wouldn't have known there was a roleblocker when they -- did what, exactly, on N1? My point there is they couldn't have set it up knowing that he'd be blocked.

The fact that his flip may help solidify the setup is a bonus, but not the driving force.

And almost more importantly at this point, the only two lynches that I've seen which could go through are him and Amrun. I haven't seen a case which makes me think Amrun is scummier -- or more anti-town (I use that term in case there's an SK) -- than 4nxi3ty.

What I really can't figure out is why no one is saying what's wrong with my case on Snake, other than "it's too obvious". His lurking continues as we get closer to day end and the best anyone can provide is "it's too obvious to be a scum play"? Couldn't you say the same thing about Amrun's positions on the final lynch votes (on the two town, off the one scum)?

[saulres]

Snake's lack of response, despite his being online several times today, isn't enough to sway you, eh?

If town loses this game, and 4nxi3ty and Snake are both town, I'm not going to feel any guilt for having lost it. Their play is so damn anti-town.

[saulres]

Don't read me wrong. I didn't say I'd rather lose to Y than lose to X. I said "

If

I lose, I'm not going to feel like it was my fault."

I don't want to lose. I'm doing my best to win. But I know that I could be wrong, because I'm not the mod and I'm not scum, so I don't know anyone's alignment besides my own. So I'm playing the best I can with the facts I have and the reads I've made.

Meanwhile, we have a little under a day and a half remaining, and two wagons at L-1, so I'm pretty sure that Snake's not going to answer before the day ends. He had his chances today and didn't take them, I don't see why it'll be different if we're not in night tomorrow. The advantages of you telling me why I'm wrong, or Amrun telling me what she thinks about Luxury, or anyone saying anything they feel strongly about, are that I can move my vote if I'm swayed, or have more information so I don't send the tiger after the wrong person tonight. But I realize that also tells the scum what people are thinking, so I understand if you don't want to say.

[saulres]

your vote on me was very much OMGUS.

No, it wasn't.

Even back then I was calling you out for hammering without reading the thread.

The final post was just doing what was being asked for and in the end had to be done.

Asked for by who? By the people who had Fishy at L-1, which we now know for sure including scum amongst them? At that point there was over a week left to the day, plenty of time for you to take some time doing your own analysis instead of jumping in with a hammer of a power role.

[saulres]

Unless more people feel that way (about Snake over 4nxi3ty) I don't see it happening. You're the first person -- slot, whatever -- other than me to say you'd be willing to vote for Snake.

@Regfan: I saw you've posted in other threads since the current situation, and I only assume you're hoping to talk to Shift. But you may have to fly solo, we're rapidly running out of time...

[saulres]

Also what's bothering me massively right now is this: Amrun made it abundantly clear that she thinks Jumpei is mafia, she also clearly stated she believes we were mafia and stated she has bad gut feelings about Crab Cannon yet is voting Anxiety...

The problem we're all facing, which is unfortunate this late in the game, is that we're seemingly all having to compromise for weaker lynch candidates than our preferred ones due to lack of consensus. Evidence of the point...

It's why I asked, yesterday, for where people were willing to switch their votes to, so we could find something that we could compromise on to get a lynch done.

[saulres]

@Regfan

: So Junpei said he's going to hammer Amrun. Does that mean you'll just let it happen because that's your preferred lynch?

I'd hope not, that still leaves the 4nxi3ty being blocked on N1 with no night kills as unresolved going into what's almost guaranteed to be a Something-or-Lose day (unless Amrun is scum).

When is your hammer deadline, Junpei? (When will you place the hammer if the stalemate continues?)

[saulres]

I make no promises on who I'm sending the tiger after. I believe Junpei feels the same.

[saulres]

wasn't completely forthcoming about her role PM

What, that she said "I'm a VT" but didn't say "and I'm Amazing"? That's such a null tell it's not even funny.

I played in another game where Whiskers thought she was a VT until she double-checked her role PM. She then said she was a bodyguard. She didn't say it the first time because it wasn't a role she'd use. I see Amrun's "Amazing" here exactly the same. Only less useful.

And Whiskers was the town bodyguard that game.

In this game, Snake didn't realize he had day-cop abilities after replacing in, and he could be town but is likely scum.

So, null-tell.

pedit: Gah. Seriously? Amrun's defense of the whole GNR connection, which is backed by actually reading what she posted during that time, is that she was arguing against Vi's theory that GNR had to be scum because he claimed bulletproof. That wasn't the convincing factor for my vote on GNR (well, what would have been my vote if he didn't take it away from me) and, I believe, for other people's as well. I said as much here.

[saulres]

Having said that, Amrun may be scum. But I don't think it's as likely as 4nxi3ty, who still was blocked on a night with no gun-kill, and who's had strange statements like this one about SL which was never explained.

pedit: Well that's that. Let's see what the flip brings and what the night holds.

[saulres]

Well Riggs is in it

And hopefully you'll be another one, just waiting on the flip.

And then -- well, I can only hope to put more in tonight. Because really, if we don't, then I think game's over

[saulres]

Great, LyLo. I've been in that situation twice. Once I won, once I lost. Let's see which it is this time.

Last night I was using my logic to send Montecore after Junpei, but then I changed my mind to go with my gut and sent him after Luxury. Clearly that was a bad call. There's mojo going on here which I don't understand. Maybe the N2 kill was delayed? No, I still don't understand, Junpei certainly didn't self-target. Whatever, it doesn't matter any more.

I did call CC as the SB (DDD can confirm after game end) so I have that going for me I guess (depending on what yellow means). And boy, if Amrun's the last scum she certainly chose the right person to bring along to put me in a horrible position.

Snake better friggin' post this day.

pedit: Let me finish my writing

Yes, I really did. I'll quote my final PM to DDD in just a sec.

[saulres]

your logic is getting in the way of your instincts. both logic and instinct needs to be used in tandem with one another. follow both of them and if they conflict you may need to adapt a new perspective.

For all his faults, I think this makes a lot of sense. My logic keeps failing me this game. So instead of doing anything based on setup speculation, I'm going back to my notes from my full reread-through, which is basically a PBPA with my summary thoughts, including only those posts I thought relevant. In those notes I have 4nxi3ty as town, and since my logic told me otherwise and failed, I'm looking at my scum reads. There were two: Snake and Luxury/Shift.

I've made a lot of noise about Snake, so I do want to stay away in case there's a redirect based on the target. But I don't think I've said anything about Luxury. So...

Send the tiger after Luxury

.

I do still think that I have even nights and Junpei has odds, so I expect this to go through. That will leave open for tomorrow (if I'm still alive) if there was a redirect or if Junpei targeted Vi.

[saulres]

Amrun, what it is you saw about Luxury's posts that you couldn't reveal because it wasn't pro-town?

[saulres]

I thought about that possibility after you posted that you saw something, but obviously didn't say anything for the same reasons. I scoured his posts for breadcrumbs indicating that. Didn't find any.

Things that are going to keep me up at night

Everyone who flipped green, as well as my role PM, has an actual magician as their name.

Everyone who flipped red or yellow had a psychic as their real name.

Snake's claimed name is a magician. Amrun's claimed name is a psychic.

Intentional screwing-around with us by DDD? Or poor choice of "Amazing" name claim after Snake said Amrun was "Amazing"?

This is going to bother me until the game is over.

[saulres]

Heh. That's why I said it's going to keep me up at nights. There's no way to figure that out, but my mind's going to try.

Other things like that include "How did 3 kills happen last night, 2 seemingly by tiger?" There's flavor in there (Siegfried and Roy's show ended after Roy was attacked by Montecore) which I'm thrilled to see DDD incorporated, somehow. Can't wait to find out how.

And that's my biggest frustration -- waiting. I really hope Snake posts more frequently, so this game can end sooner rather than later. I shudder to think we'll still be doing this 2 weeks from tonight.

pedit: I didn't think Luxury was a doc, I thought that

might

have been what you saw and were hinting at, so I looked for signs of it. I didn't find any, so I dismissed the idea, and then went back to my notes from my re-read-through.

And I didn't shoot him, I sent the tiger after him. I don't have a gun.

[saulres]

Color-coded lynch votes (updated), for easy bookmarking. Once again I didn't make myself green simply because I know that whichever of you is the other townie doesn't necessarily think I am.

springlullaby

–

Shift

,

Vi

,

Guy_Named_Riggs

,

Fishythefish

, Amrun,

sottyrulez

, Locke Lamora

sottyrulez

(L-4) - saulres,

Junpei

,

ace5993

ace5993

(L-5) -

Crab Canon

,

4nxi3ty

Shift

(L-6) –

springlullaby

Guy_Named_Riggs

–

Vi

,

ace5993

,

Crab Canon

,

Luxury

, SnakePlissken,

Guy_Named_Riggs

4nxi3ty

(L-3) -

Junpei

,

Fishythefish

, saulres
saulres (L-5) -

4nxi3ty

Junpei

(L-5) - Amrun

Fishythefish

-

Vi

, Amrun,

Junpei

,

Luxury

,

Crab Canon

, SnakePlissken
saulres (L-5) -

4nxi3ty

Not Voting (3) -

ace5993

,

Fishythefish

, saulres

4nxi3ty

-

Junpei

, saulres, Amrun,

Luxury

Amrun (L-2) - SnakePlissken,

Crab Canon

Luxury

(L-3) -

4nxi3ty

[saulres]

Same difference, gun, tiger.

No it's not. There's different flavor, and that means something.

My best guess for tonight is that Junpei/CC were crosskills.

Explain this please. You think CC shot someone who was killed by a tiger?

[saulres]

I will take that into consideration. I would now like to shut up (me, not you) until Snake posts something. I will answer questions, though. Or if the off-chance I find something conclusive I may vote (but I doubt it in this game).

[saulres]

No I would suggest that Crab has been the other kill, although that wouldn't explain what happened last night.

Actually, it does. I came to that conclusion earlier, when (as predicted) I couldn't sleep. I'm pretty sure I know what happened now, but it's too late to do anything about it.

While I'd prefer if you investigated Amrun, obviously, I don't think DDD's going to give you anything conclusive, no matter who you investigate.

Are you going to be V/LA again this weekend?

[saulres]

...

I was really hoping Snake would vote first. I'm not hammering yet.

Maybe I'll get lucky and scum-Snake will hammer himself like Riggs did

[saulres]

Yes, of course he will. And I already figured I'd have the same choice anyway. So I want to make it correctly.

why would you not hammer?

You're not confirmed town, Amrun.

[saulres]

Seriously? You're accusing me of fencesitting when the entire game is on the line?

I'm not going to be intimidated into rushing a vote. And there

is

new information. We had three kills last night which revealed all sorts of new things, and Snake will presumably investigate you and return something (probably not useful but we'll see).

On top of that I've been brought to the final three, I need time to process why I think that is.

I'll vote when I'm ready. Not before, no matter how much pressure you put on me.

[saulres]

If you and Snake both are v/la this weekend, that means I'll get the weekend off from this game! I could use that.

I play tight-fisted for a reason. Sometimes I have an idea and I ask questions to see if I can get someone to slip (see: me thinking Vi and Ace were in collusion on something scummy earlier in this game). I have some thoughts, but telling the scum what they are right now so they can tailor their conversation to me is a horrible idea.

[saulres]

Gee what a surprise. Snake returns a scum role from investigating Amrun and then votes for her. I never saw that coming

Well actually, to some extent, I didn't. Since the purported role supposedly returns a random result, I didn't expect anything so definitive to come from DDD, I expected to see the Voter line. But, to keep the game fair and the mod's input balanced, the theory of "top-down" could certainly apply here, and that might be a legitimate result.

So much WIFOM, so little time.

I have several "This is a scum tell from Amrun" spots, and I have several "This is a scum tell from Snake" spots.

I have several "This is a town tell from Amrun" spots, and I have a couple of "This is a town tell from Locke" spots (but not really from Snake).

I have strong setup speculation which says Snake is scum. I don't have a parallel for Amrun.

So while I'm leaning voting Snake, I'm now working through the "Why are the three of us still alive?" possibilities, there's a lot to digest in there. I anticipate having a decision and a vote, for better or worse, sometime in the next 7 hours or so.

Meanwhile, Amrun? What's up with this?

Confised by the fact the game is still on....

You went back on that in your next post, but why did you have any confusion to begin with?

[saulres]

Also, Amrun:

CC was trickier, but def gave me weirdvibes as noted.

As noted where, exactly?

[saulres]

Also, Amrun:

CC was trickier, but def gave me weirdvibes as noted.

As noted where, exactly?

nm, found it (you spelled out the name instead of using "CC").

Still want to know why you were surprised the game was still going.

[saulres]

Snake,

I'm fully expecting you to send the tiger after me tonight when we get to the end of this day, as much that if I survive the night, your top of my investigate list.

What changed that you chose to investigate Amrun instead?

[saulres]

Another question for both of you:

Without quoting, could you please paraphrase what it says in your role PM about who The Amazing Kreskin and The Amazing Randi are?

I take back what I said about having a vote in the timeframe I specified earlier, there are still too many things I need to find out and differentiate between. Sorry, people in the dead QT. I hope the rest of you townies appreciate what I'm doing.

[saulres]

And my other question?

could you please paraphrase what it says in your role PM about who The Amazing Kreskin and The Amazing Randi are?

Obviously you for Kreskin and Snake for Randi.

[saulres]

k thanks.

Just waiting on Snake now. I hope he can quickly pop in here and answer that.

I'm sorry this is taking so long, I've been quite a bit hampered by the fact that everyone who's been alive since Vi and Ace have been killed are either confirmed anti-town, or extremely infrequent posters, with the exception of 4nxi3ty who basically tunneled me and CC. So quite a lot of what's been said over D3, I'm not finding particularly useful for scum-hunting. Setup speculation, yes, but not so much determining the scum.

[saulres]

I appreciate your input, Amrun, but even though I'm a retiring newbie, I completely grasp the concept of WIFOM. I've been over the various permutations multiple times today and each one is "Well, yes, that could be the reason -- or it could be WIFOM." There are

many

possible reasons I can come up with, and they all end in those five letters.

Meanwhile, it looks like we may have to wait for Snake again. I swear if he's town he's doing his best job of failing to argue for himself. There are two questions waiting for him, one of which is here and the other right below it. That second one takes all of, what, ten seconds to answer? And he was online earlier, looking at this forum, but didn't. It's been frustrating, and isn't getting any less so.

I doubt the answer will help, but I'm really trying my hardest to win this game, and so I'm trying to give him a fair shake. Although at this point I don't think anyone would blame me for just voting him, given the logic behind putting a vote there and his continual reticence.

@SNAKE: Please answer the two questions referred to above as soon as possible so I can end this thing. Thanks.

[saulres]

You know what? Enough's enough, and I need to get this game out of my head. I can't go another weekend.

Logic and gut have both done me well this game, and have screwed me this game. But when they come together I have to trust them.

If Amrun and Junpei have been planning this since the beginning of the game, more power to them. Junpei played a great bluff game, imo, since he doesn't have any tiger ability whatsoever -- it's clear from last night that CC's been doing all the heart removals, and the only successful tiger shot was last night. I'm even nights only, and was blocked N2. Junpei had no nights.

That means that scum had one neighbor (possibly bulletproof) and one powerless goon, and one other. Versus a SK and a town with a part-time vig, a bulletproof neighbor, a neighborizor, and a role-blocker. To put the rolecop on the town side seems heavily balanced against the scum. To put the rolecop on the scum side seems to present more balance, at least to my untrained eyes.

Plus, there's the whole "Look where his votes went" thing which I argued against yesterday.

The real kicker for me is, I don't believe scum knew that Luxury was going to be vigged. I think they thought either Amrun or Junpei would be, most likely Junpei. (And I actually had PMed DDD to vig Junpei even before the day ended. I just changed it after second-guessing myself.) Luxury would be anti-Amrun and pro-Snake. It's WIFOM, but if you believe, as I do, that they had

no reason at all

to think Luxury wouldn't be around today, then it's much less so.

So that's it then.

Vote: Snake

.

I hope I've done right by the rest of the town.

[saulres]

Thank you so much for all the support, folks! I very much enjoyed playing with almost all of you (except 4nxi3ty until he "reformed"; then it was cool).

I'll respond in more detail tomorrow to other post-game comments. I just keep shaking my head, though, when people say I improved as I went on. I'm not sure how they can think that? I mean, let's take, for example, "the real kicker for me" in finally choosing between Amrun and Snake.

The real kicker for me is, I don't believe scum knew that Luxury was going to be vigged. I think they thought either Amrun or Junpei would be, most likely Junpei. (And I actually had PMed DDD to vig Junpei even before the day ended. I just changed it after second-guessing myself.) Luxury would be anti-Amrun and pro-Snake. It's WIFOM, but if you believe, as I do, that they had

no reason at all

to think Luxury wouldn't be around today, then it's much less so.

Yep, no way at all scum would expect that Luxury wouldn't be around on Day 5. None whatsoever.

N4 Actions:

Junpei Vig: Luxury

See, I don't think I improved, and I'm not sure exactly what everyone saw that makes them think I did. I basically followed the same pattern I did in all the other games I've played onsite: Days 1 and 2 I look very scummy no matter what I do, then people realize that it's just how I play and I look mostly town. Hell, in the other game I won, even after the game ended I had trouble making people think I was town...

(Actually I could say the same thing about Fishy in this game. When I was doing my full re-read-through, I kept thinking "Yep, Fishy's scum" and had to correct myself because it was well after he was lynched But I digress...)

I look forward to reading the QTs when I get more of a chance.

As to my "retirement" -- again, I thank you for your support saying that I shouldn't. The thing is, it's not my feeling that I'm not a good player and having so many losses before the last two wins (yay!). It's that, as you can probably tell, I overthink things too much. And by that, I mean I'm thinking about them

almost all the time

. Twice this game I woke up in the middle of the night and couldn't get back to sleep; if you look at my post times you'll see a couple which are way out of synch with the others. It's actually become unhealthy for me to play. It saddens me that I can't shut it out of my mind, but there it is. So Junpei, it's not because I lost my motivation -- it's because I had too

much

motivation

Finally (for now), DDD, I've thanked you in PMs throughout the game but I'm gonna do it again publicly. Thank you very much for allowing me to play in the game, and for running such an entertaining and intriguing mystery. The thing I liked about the first game I played (offsite, before coming here) was it was also closed, and I was trying to figure out who could do what and what the setup was. That's what I really like, and what I sorely missed in the other games I've played onsite. The flavor was entertaining and supremely consistent (I had often thought "If I send the tiger after Roy is it a guaranteed kill?" and laughed when I saw the roles and realized that Junpei suggested his own suicide.) Absolutely wonderful game.

[saulres]

I have a question: If Snake and I had won the game the night before day 5, would you have considered it a fair, or earned victory? Would you say that we deserved it?

I can't see why I would have thought it

wasn't

fair or deserved. Not sure why you think it might have been otherwise.

I just wish I'd shot Saulres now.

If you had, then it would've been CC, Amrun, and you in the final three. That's a guaranteed town loss no matter what Amrun did, but no guarantee of a scum win; it all depends on who Amrun would have voted.

It's going to be hard if he gets a scum draw to fake the same activity too.

I don't think so, to be honest. The first game I played (offsite) I was town who was converted to scum the only night the game had (very small player list). Day 2 we were in LyLo, and I was throwing out theories and posting with the same involvement level as you saw in this game or any of the others I've played on this site. (It's part of my problem as expressed above about not being able to shut the game out of my mind. I thank those of you who've offered ideas on what to do about that, but giving the game a rest is certainly going to be my first step -- I enjoyed not thinking about it yesterday )

That's the only time I've been scum, and I'm saddened by that. I'm jealous of Riggs, who got to talk to 4 different people outside of the game thread, about the game, all game long if he played his cards right. It's a problem I've had since my first newbie game here, the inability to have a sounding board (which is part of the reason I send the mods so much info and thoughts -- and DDD, what I sent you was only a very small portion of what I have...).

I realize with a hydra I could solve that, but I'm honestly not sure about how I feel about them, given that they get treated differently (although with 4nxi3ty's challenges of CC on Day 4 I see the downside of what I previously thought was an advantage).

Anyway, I've read the Mafia QT at least and skimmed some others, and it's interesting to see how everyone was thinking compared to how they were playing. VP, in the dead thread you said to me "Lynch the obvious scum." I'm not sure what made Snake obvious to you, because there were also things about Amrun which seemed scummy, at least to me -- as much as Snake's hammers seemed like a scumtell, Amrun's first three lynch vote placements seemed just as damning. Plus I ISOed her and reviewed her whole "Junpei since day one" thing and thought there could have been some early-game-bussing-setup.

I also don't think the game would have ended as it did if Junpei and I didn't vig the same person last night. That's the first time we saw the real tiger flavor, since we hadn't once killed anyone before that. Luxury would still be in the game so we wouldn't have been at LyLo, and I would still have been convinced that the tiger ate hearts, but I wouldn't have had any idea why my shot missed again. I would've gone crazy trying to figure it out.

Anyway, if anyone has any questions for me, I'll be glad to answer. I do have one final question, though, expressed originally by Shift.

Also:

VI

Y U NO GIVE GENDER

[saulres]

Subject: Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

As for that last question - Contrary to the (admittedly plausible) theory that I've been engaging in a 3+ year long prank, I have personal reasons for not doing so.

It's okay, I won't push. If (when?) I come back I'll still refer to you as female because "Vi" is a female name to me.

Also I read your Beginning Guide on the wiki at one point and found it to be helpful, especially your points on metas and PBPAs. Being aware of what you warned against help me guard against it when I did my PBPA, and I was surprised at some of the results. It was only after I started combining those thoughts with my setup speculations that I threw myself off, but when I went back to the raw notes late Day 4, well, that's when I said "Locke may have looked town but the Locke/Snake combo is scum? How about that. I should push it in thread, see what happens."

[saulres]

Oh that was the timing of that comment. I don't see that as necessarily a tell, given that Amrun was already investigated once and there was a theory (mine, I think) that the reads came in downwards order.

Speaking of which...

DDD, how did you resolve what random result Locke/Snake would receive? I mean, if they got "Spoonman" from CC that would've handed them the SK.

[saulres]

Saulres
Yeah talking with 3 different people was fun, but not on my first game as scum. That screwed me over in the end. I remeber thinking when I first founf out that I had a seperate QT with a townie I was like "Sweet! This is perferfect for me! I got someone who is 100% sure I'm town!" And looked what happened. I think, if it hadn't been Vi or any other experienced player who knew DDD or a lot about set-up speculation, it could've worked.

I like to think that I would've gone a bit differently. When I saw I was Siegfried, my first thought was "There's probably a Roy, but I don't want to claim to early because he could be scum." So I think if I drew your role, I would have thought "Vi must be thinking I could be scum. What I'll do is make sure I clarify anything she needs help clarifying, but at the same time find reasons to find things her scummy -- make townies think that I'm not convinced she's town." By helping Vi out I think she would have kept me around longer, and by not being convinced she's town just because I "was", that it would make me look town to everyone else for when Vi was eventually killed. At least that's how I would've tried to play it.

[saulres]

I get that a lot

[saulres]

Thanks, Junpei.

At the moment I'm thinking of taking a break from playing, while getting a setup in place to mod a game. Although I plan to watch a game or two that I might find enjoyable, hopefully to the level that I can replace in if needed but not spend time agonizing myself over how to take out the opposing side -- since there is no opposing side when I'm just watching (or modding)

I don't think you played a very poor game; there's no way we would have gotten down to LyLo if you did (unless you think town played even worse than "very poor"). While Riggs made a couple of mistakes early on, you kept playing like you were town and had, near as I can tell, the vast majority fooled for a very long time (Amrun is an obvious exception). I finally saw through you as we were approaching N4, and submitted my vig kill of you to DDD even before the night started (in case it was decided by who submitted first), and only just changed it because despite my promise to myself and DDD, I did look at the game during one of the two days night was running and talked myself out of it.

If I hadn't changed, we'd never have known there was different flavor for the tiger kill!

[saulres]

Locke! Nice to see you again!

I've been hoping you'd show up, to clarify if I was right that you breadcrumbed cop here, or if it was just me seeing something that wasn't there that wound up being true?