<Mini 435> Julius Caesar Mafia, Player Abandoned

[Illumina]

I agree, it makes much more sense as a town mistake than a scum one. Something to note, but not vote-worthy.

To me, Guardian's behavior is the most interesting aspect of the game so far.

[Illumina]

It looks like some sort of post restriction.

Wow, I totally missed that -- I assumed the red text was simply for emphasis. You're right, it seems like he has to vote for someone in every single post. The red text appears random, though, just something he has to include.

[Illumina]

Guardian: Do you really think Miztef is scummy, or did you vote him mainly because of your post restriction?

[Illumina]

Well...with a blatant restriction/requirement, I would expect a blatant punishment also.

I disagree, I think that's a weak and risky assumption. Also, the mod posted "What Might Be Going Wrong" in red the next post after Guardian failed to do so, and he had never used red text previously. That could have been a reminder, an indication that he has one less free slip-up, an actual role penalty we'd be unaware of, or a combination of any of those. We have no way of knowing in any case, and trying to play wifom with the mod isn't all that prudent.

I agree with Sarcastro on this, let's look at behavior and speculate more when the time is right.

[Illumina]

...Or is it? =P

*Mod slaps Illumina* =P

All it ever was was a possibility. Trying to outguess the mod = bad. Moving onward.

Also, being inclined to vote for Guardian just because his restriction is annoying is also bad play.

That's all for now, busy with finals.

[Illumina]

2] Could do without Guardian
3] Have no concrete information about Guardian being scum

So what you're saying is, you have nothing to suggest he's scum but we ought to kill someone and it may as well be him because his restriction is annoying?

[Illumina]

How does that help the town? We're not going to lynch someone because you find it annoying to read his posts.

Vote: Phoebus

.

[Illumina]

Phoebus: I don't like your behavior because it doesn't seem pro-town. Thats why my vote is on you currently.

To contrast, you want to lynch Guardian because his restriction is annoying.

(On a completely unrelated note, the amount of activity in this game is refreshing. I can come back in an hour and have something new to respond to =P)

More later.

[Illumina]

Poebus:

I don't like Guardian's behaviour because it does not seem pro town. That is why vote is on him currently.

Ok. It seemed to me that you weren't sure he was scum or not, and voted him solely because his restriction was annoying. In fact, you said so:

my stand is crystal clear I believe.
1] Don't like the restriction.
2] Could do without Guardian
3] Have no concrete information about Guardian being scum (refer to points 1 and 2]

this day 1
we have nothing better to go on

the restriction is annoying

it could potentially be fake

it would be very annoying if the restriction carried on indefinitely.

Wanting to vote someone just because of an annoying restriction alone is bad pro-town play. It is also a convincing reason to vote for you, regardless of your behavior. The real debate here is whether Guardian is scummy enough to warrant killing day 1, and I would argue that isn't the case. I'm not giving him a free pass because of the restriction, but I haven't seen convincing reasons to lynch him rather than waiting and possibly trying to confirm him later.

The degree to which you've been transparent about this makes me question whether you're scum, even though I think your reasons have been poor. I'm going to

Unvote: Phoebus

for now and give you a

FoS

. You need to get beyond the fact that you dislike the post restriction -- it's bad play, doesn't help the town, and doesn't make you look pro-town either.

*All* actions of a pro town player are useful.

I'm going to disagree on this. What if a cop outs himself accidentally?

Mitzef:

I also disagree with your reasoning. As Guardian pointed out, you have claimed but are not cleared. Are you trying to show who you think is likely to be lynched, or rank who would make the best lynch candidates? (hint: either way, I disagree with your list =P)

[Illumina]

I see. Don't take this the wrong way, but I think it would be more productive to post your reasons for why various people should or shouldn't be lynched. A likely lynch is not synonymous with a good lynch choice, after all.

Insofar as its an effort to keep track, though, I'm fine with any list you want to make .

[Illumina]

Each player playing the game gets to quantity scumminess for themselves. And the cop example I gave is a functional one: such an action is pretty much unequivocally bad for the town. Just because it invites discussion doesn't make it helpful, as it will almost certainly result in a net loss for the town.

[Illumina]

Nothing substantial at this point, but here are my observations:

-Ryan's behavior fits for a relatively new player, but he's worth keeping an eye on nonetheless. Likewise for Mitzef, really, although he seems a tad eager to go with the flow and acquiesce to common opinion (I also didn't like his most likely to be lynched list). Again, not necessarily scummy, just worth noting.

-My opinion on Phoebus hasn't changed very much. His logic just hasn't seemed pro-town, but he's been awfully bold and forthright for scum. More data needed...

-I do feel that the spat between ryan and Sarcastro may possibly be staged, something to keep in mind (although I can definitely see a regular pro-town argument as well).

-I'd be interested to know why VanDamien thinks those two pairs are likely scum.

I'll be driving back home for the summer tomorrow, so I can't guarantee any posting for 3-4 days but chances are I'll have access to internet of some sort. Good luck, guys.

[Illumina]

Lot of interesting material I've missed. I'm back home now and I'm fully caught up, I'll most likely post in more detail tomorrow.

[Illumina]

Miztef

: Your posts have generally been summaries of others' suspicions. Could you elaborate on

your

assessment of me, as well as other players you mentioned in post 289? Also, what convinces you that Ryan is scum as opposed to an inexperienced/paranoid pro-town player? And finally, why are you "happy with a lynch happening soon"? There's no rush.

Ryan

: So far, the only reason you give for Miztef and Sarcastro being scum are the fact they're voting you. EmpTyger asked a good question in 290 that I'd like you to answer:

Other than voting you, what have Miztef and Sarcastro done that is suspicious? Also how is what Simenon did in [278] different from what Nightfall did in [203] or I did in [247]?

Also, in 274 you said you found the argument against Phoebus compelling -- what in particular did you find compelling about it? I'd also like to know how you feel about other players besides Miztef and Sarcastro.

Objectively, Miztef appears much scummier than Ryan to me, but I believe it's more likely they're both inexperienced townies than scum.

Regarding the restriction: Can't say I condone faking it as pro-town, but it was very convincing all the same. Simenon admitting the fake restriction does appear pro-town, but there's always a possibility he's scum looking to garner trust, so I'm not convinced either way.

I'm still not sure what to make of Phoebus -- he's been incredibly unhelpful to the town, but almost too bold and forthright for scum. I'd love to hear what he thinks about the game, including a basic assessment of each player as well as thoughts on the restriction.

Nightfall

: Would be great to hear more from you.

VanDamien

: I'll ask you the same question I asked Miztef: what convinces you that Ryan is scum as opposed to an inexperienced/paranoid pro-town player, and what makes him a better lynch candidate than anyone else?

Lawrencelot

: You mentioned earlier in the game you found Phoebus, Ryan, and VanDamien the most scummy. What did you find scummy about each, and what are your current thoughts on them (or anyone else)?

[Illumina]

Unfortunately you're not directly addressing my question, Miztef. None of what you cited suggests that he's scum rather than an inexperienced or defensive townie. (I'd also like answers to the other questions I posed, when you have time.)

Ryan

: It might be better to stop acting defensively and provide more input on who might be scum and why (including players other than Miztef and Sarcastro, as well).

[Illumina]

I may be going out on a limb here, but am I the only one who sees Ryan's play as indicative of his inexperience? Sure, inexperienced play doesn't mean he isn't scum, but I can understand a new pro-town player getting frustrated the way Ryan is and using the same sort of (faulty) logic. I don't intend to give him a free pass because he's new, but perhaps he isn't the best lynch choice for today.

I propose we give him an opportunity to give us more constructive analysis in his posts, and reserve the option to lynch him later if he continues to act scummy or unhelpful.

[Illumina]

Sarcastro

: I see where you're coming from regarding Ryan -- he continues to look scummy and his explanations are fairly weak (and as I mentioned earlier, I certainly think it's possible he's inexperienced scum). I'm unsure whether his behavior is likely to change (whether he's town or scum), but if he continues his trend of posting actual reasoning, we may want to consider letting him live at least for a little while.

Interestingly, I consider Phoebus' posts to be just as belligerent and unhelpful as Ryan's (though Phoebus posts much less), but there's (presumably) a significant difference of experience between the two players. What are your thoughts on this?

Miztef

: since you're also voting Ryan, I'll pose the same question to you.

Eteocles

: Why leave your vote on Sarcastro? Also, who do you consider the scummiest players at this point?

[Illumina]

I will also

FoS

Eteocles. I'm not thrilled with his reasoning or his reaction to Simenon. He's now someone I would consider voting for, although I can see the reasoning that he's a new player.

Ryan

: Emptyger wasn't the only one to ask you that question. And unless I've missed something (which has been known to happen) I don't see where you ever answered it.

For the record, I'm with Emptyger regarding Phoebus: I can't deny that he was right about the restriction, but I didn't like his behavior or his logic.

[Illumina]

Try again, post 367 answers exactly half the question.

[Illumina]

Other than voting you, what have Miztef and Sarcastro done that is suspicious?

Also how is what Simenon did in [278] different from what Nightfall did in [203] or I did in [247]?

I don't mean to harp on this, it just looked like you dodged half the question. Am I being stupid and you've already answered this somewhere else? If so, my bad.

Simenon

: I guess we disagree about Phoebus in that respect. He has been consistently clear, but I thought his reasoning towards Guardian earlier in the game was very lackluster and unhelpful. His gut instinct may have been really good on the fake PR (or maybe he was right for the wrong reasons), but his logic was consistently poor. I'm not sure his being unhelpful necessarily makes him scummy, which was why I thought he made a good parallel to Ryan. I think Phoebus' recent posts have been quite helpful, but not his earlier ones.

Speaking of helpful posts, Sarcastro makes a compelling counterpoint that there are in fact identifiable newbie scum tells, but I agree with Phoebus that Ryan isn't necessarily committing these and falls into a more pro-town newbie pattern.

[Illumina]

Simenon

: I consider Phoebus' earlier posts to be faulty, possibly scummy, as well as clear and forthright. Despite being clear and forthright, I don't consider them helpful to the town because the logic was so poor (specifically, driven solely by his distaste for the restriction itself). I think Post 121 sums it up best.

Lawrencelot

: I think I've been fairly forthright, but if it provides a clearer picture of me, sure. Here's a full list:

Nightfall: Hasn't posted enough to give me any sort of impression.
Lawrencelot: I'm leaning toward you being town, even if I don't always buy your reasoning.
Eteocles: Has pinged my scumdar. I think he's a bit more likely than Ryan to be scum, but their behavior is similar and they're both relatively new to this site. If we had to come to a lynch right now, I'd probably choose Eteocles, although I'd much rather wait to hear more from him.
Illumina:

Obviously

pro-town.
Simenon: Guardian's fake PR was questionable, but Simenon's been acting fairly pro-town in my eyes, thus far.
Sarcastro: I think he's been logical and reasonable, although he has had Ryan in his sights consistently with less focus on other players, which makes me a little hesitant.
EmpTyger: Appears pro-town.
ryan: At this point, I'm torn on Ryan. I can see evidence for newbie town and newbie scum, so I'm 50-50 on him.
Phoebus: Also torn on him. His recent posts have been logical and helpful, while earlier in the game he was making decisions based solely on his distaste for the restriction. Just because he happened to be right doesn't make his logic any less questionable, so I'm not inclined to give him very much credit for getting it right. Still, his latest posts are more helpful and he is very honest and forthright for scum (although I still have my eye on him).
Patrick: Needs to post more before I can get a better read on him.
Miztef: I think his opinions are a little too easily influenced by others, he looks like he's trying to stay with the flow as much as possible. I'm not sure that he's more likely scum, I'm leaning in the direction of newbie pro-town power role right now, although this isn't set in stone.
VanDamien: Also needs to post more.

Emptyger

: I consider Phoebus more suspicious than Simenon, for the reasons listed above.

[Illumina]

VanDamien raises a good point. I can't say it drastically changes my opinion, though, since the way other sites play mafia can differ vastly to the way its played here. I'd played mafia before this site, but promptly got lynched as town day 1 in my first game here. This site has its own learning curve, I think.

Ryan

: Just because someone raised a point about you doesn't mean they're "attacking" you. It's normal behavior for people to raise such points, it doesn't mean they're being antagonistic. Could I convince you to be a little more easy-going?

[Illumina]

Regarding Ryan/Braze: my stance remains the same. I'd consider him an acceptable lynch, although I'm not sure if he's optimal or not. I'll be considering this.

Regarding Simenon: I don't think invoking LAL would be helpful to us in this case, given that he's been both active and helpful. He's not beyond suspicion by any means, but I don't see a strong case for lynching him today.

I'm liking Miztef less for waffling, as Lawrencelot pointed out in post 449.

More later.

[Illumina]

Hm. In short, here are my thoughts:

I'm not convinced Simenon is town, but there are people I suspect more at the moment so I'm not sure he's an optimal lynch.

I'm not sure I trust Eteocles' claim, but I also don't think its prudent to lynch him today.

I'm still about 50-50 on both Ryan/Braze and Miztef. Having read Miztef's finished newbie game, he seemed less wishy-washy and acquiescent as scum, which would tempt me to vote for him except that the way EmpTyger is suddenly eager to lynch him makes me hesitate. Emp: could you lay out what Miztef did recently that moved him over the line and really made you want to vote for him?

If nothing else notable happens, I'm planning to vote Braze right before the deadline (which is in less than 2 hours, unless I'm mistaken), despite his claim. If the town suddenly changes its mind I'd be willing to vote Braze, Miztef, or Simenon in that order of preference (although it will most likely be Braze or Simenon). I will also vote for anyone in order to prevent a no-lynch if it becomes necessary.

[Illumina]

No, in fact I quickly tried to submit the post *before* our mod had posted to officially end the day. Basically, I was boneheaded and mis-calculated the time difference between CST and PST when I was trying to determine the deadline. I refreshed the thread and read Emptyger's post saying the deadline was in 20 minutes(!), and it had just hit the hour by my clock -- I was probably about 10-15 seconds too late, since PBuG ended the day just as I was posting. It was an honest mistake, as well a stupid one, and I felt awful for having made it (especially since I would have had a deciding vote).

That said, I realize now that waiting until the last minute to vote was also sloppy play on my part -- I was indecisive and wanted to see how people acted as the deadline approached to inform my choice. Whether I was able to cast my vote or not, I should have come to a decision much sooner. Mea (maxima) culpa.

[Illumina]

This day has left me very confused, so I've been lurking a little. I have read everything, though, and I think I have a better handle on the game, if only a little bit.

Phoebus, I think, is making things a little difficult: if he's pro-town, his behavior makes potentially pro-town people suspect him, and also makes him a desirable target for scum. If he's scum, he's quite blatantly drawing attention to himself in a way I can't see a relatively experienced player doing. Patrick: is there anything more specific you can point to that suggests he's playing this game as scum compared to town? I have a hard time believing he'd put himself out there this much if he were scum, but I'm willing to factor in your prior experience with him.

The interaction between Miztef and Sarcastro above (585-586) is interesting, and continues to make me distrustful of Miztef. In fact, EmpTyger made a good point that perhaps we shouldn't be as tolerant of sloppy or wishy-washy play as we've been this game (I've been guilty myself in both respects, for various reasons). I considered it a good play at the time to give Miztef and especially ryan / Braze some leeway because I thought they were potentially inexperienced pro-town players, but it's occurred to me that it's in everyone best interests to be a little more critical of their choices, so we don't unwittingly give them free passes when they could very well be scum.

To that end,

Vote: Miztef

. When Sarcastro was unimpressed with your reasoning on Phoebus, he didn't mention any specifics, yet you suddenly retreated from your earlier stance just because he disapproved. When did you notice or decide that the case against Phoebus was based on playstyle issues and not scuminess? Also, in your opinion what is the difference between Braze and Phoebus, in the context of playstyle versus actual scuminess (which you cited as a reason for backing off Phoebus)? Basically, what specifically makes Braze scum where Phoebus just has his own playstyle?

And as far as Braze goes, I still consider him an appropriate lynch today, although he's been much more helpful than ryan and I may be able to get a more defined read on him as time goes on (assuming he isn't lynched today).

I also disagree with a mass claim this early. I feel like I don't have enough experience to determine whether the mere suggestion is outright scummy, but I still don't believe it's in our best interests (it will be worth noting later who advocated what).

[Illumina]

I would be willing to lynch Braze today, so in an effort to jumpstart things I'll

unvote: Miztef

and

vote: Braze

. Although we still need to hear from Abalidoth and others before anything actually happens...

[Illumina]

I'm present, doing my readthrough.

[Illumina]

I'm here, I've just been busy moving back into my dorm etc.

I should be able to post in detail in the next few days.