Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[BrianMcQueso]

/confirm

I'm weary of LML's plan. Let's look at the best case scenario: all pro-town power roles target LML tonight. This includes cop investigation and doctor protection, but excludes roleblocking, as common sense says that a roleblocking would block him from receiving information, and vigilante, which, coupled with a mafia kill, would be two kills, and typical doctor protection only prevents one. The cop would know of LML's innocence, and LML would know of the cop and doctor's identities (though not which is which, I assume). This would form a pseudo-masonry between the three, and LML could theoretically shoot down fake claims of either power role.

However, because of all the hooplah, mafia would be less inclined to fake claim, voiding the usefulness of LML's gambit. Also, there is always the argument that a cop or doctor chose not to target LML for whatever reason. All in all, there seems little to gain from this decision.

On the other hand, let's look at worst-case scenario: LML is a lying scumbag. What do we stand to lose from going through this plan? A cop investigation would reveal a guilty result on him, unless he has Godfather protection. The doctor protection would be wasted for one night, but the odds of the doctor protecting the mafia's target randomly on Night 1 is rather low anyway. Is there some other drawback that I'm missing?

In my opinion, it appears we have little to gain or lose whether we follow LML's plan or not.

On a separate note, I have doubts that there would be a vigilante in this game. A vigilante's job is to pick off those he finds scummy on his own accord without needing the town's consensus. Having to decide all your kills ahead of time and essentially shooting randomly negates that entire purpose.

[BrianMcQueso]

You think I read what other people post?

[BrianMcQueso]

LML's role is sketchy (brilliant insight, eh?) While a tracker with a one-use self-target is realistic as a role, I'd say it's also somewhat unlikely. Enabling pre-list discussion combined with the ability to target oneself a single time conveniently leads to the exact plan LML has proposed. If genuine, it could be potentially game-breaking. I'm skeptical that a moderator would include a specific role function that would essentially end the game before the first lynch.

Target lists should not be random. Day 0 is a huge boon to creating your targeting list. A cop can start with the scummiest person and work their way down towards the townliest. A doctor should pick a few of the townliest players to protect, and have some repeat protections (if the doctor does not, and the Mafia missed a kill, then they could reasonably assume that their target is less likely to receive protection the next night. Of course, now that I've brought this to everyone's attention, I've opened a big bottle of WIFOM, and the doctor should protect however the heck they damn well feel they should). Without the benefit of Day 0, then everyone would be forced into random lists, but we have information to guide our choices now, no matter how limited it might be.

We were given two entire weeks for discussion, so let's make good use of that time and get a lot of information that will help our power roles. Day 0 should not be considered a kick-back day that doesn't really matter because there is no lynch. Day 0 could be the most significant day of the game.

[BrianMcQueso]

Simenon, it appears you have high expectations from me. Considering that my post was on Page 3 of the game, and discounting a page's worth of posts of simple "/confirms", I had two pages worth of content to comment on. If not talking about LML's plan, even to the point of beating a dead horse, what would you expect me to talk about? In fact, had I not commented on LML's strategy, would I be targeted and persecuted for "ignoring" it and not contributing to the topic of discussion? Am I to be punished simply because others were able to speak on a subject before I was able to? And at least I contributed to some extent rather than lurked.

You have also disregarded my discussion on night choice list strategy and ignored the topic yourself. In my opinion, this should be our primary focus today, as it's the only day we'll get to talk about it in a significant way that will improve our town's play.

Continuing on, Erg0 raised a point I'd like to discuss further:

Simply protecting the towniest players first allows the scum to get free kills on the scummy-looking players early in the game if they choose to take that path with their list.

In a way, this is beneficial to the town. Traditionally, the mafia have sought to preserve the scummier players to draw attention (and lynches) away from themselves. This game is no different in that the mafia have to choose between killing townlier players whom are more likely to be doctor-protected and killing scummier players who are guaranteed kills. It is different in that both doctor and mafia have to choose their strategies up front and can not change them as the game progresses (cop claims being the most significant event to change a strategy). In the end, it still remains a giant WIFOM game that the doctor and mafia will have to play amongst themselves.

On the other hand, it is a greater success for a doctor to negate a nightkill, regardless of how pro-town the player appears, rather than to use the protection on a player benefiting the town that is not targeted. It's something that can't be actively chosen (and only appreciated in hindsight), but it does give the doctor a legitimate reason to protect the scummier players.

The reason I would rather focus on the doctor's strategy is that it would benefit the town more to have a strategically sound doctor. A cop's benefit to the town changes little under this modified setup. Each night they're going to get an investigation result. While that investigation might not fall on the optimal target as each night passes, it's a problem that is unavoidable. A doctor, however, has a legitimate reason to target the same player more than once over the course of the game. The question, in my mind, comes down to:

Is it more strategically sound to protect a select group of pro-town players repeatedly, or to spread out the protection to increase the chances of thwarting the scum?

[BrianMcQueso]

Also, discussing the doc strategy in-thread? No! Bad BMQ!

Bad

BMQ! That's wrong on

so many

levels.

Do you want the doctor to protect randomly? Or to make uneducated decisions? If we are not to discuss targeting strategy on the first day, then what are we to do? Sit around and talk about avatars?

[BrianMcQueso]

You're free to believe whatever you want about a loose playing style, whether it's an indication of scumminess or townliness. In all honesty, I play this game to have fun. (Playing games for fun? psshh) I learned a long time ago not to get too emotionally involved, especially in a game based on accusations. If you believe me to be scum, that's your business, and I know that it's next to impossible to try to convince someone once they have their mind made up.

That's not to say I don't take the game seriously. As long as I'm alive, I'll contribute to discussions and do my best to find scum. The reason I have spoken so much regarding the doctor is that I feel this role's night choices will greatly impact the remainder of this game, which is why I feel that talking about it is so significant, even if the mafia is able to read the same information as the doctor.

My concerns with BMQ aren't that he's playing loose, but that he's promoting discussion which actively helps the scum and hurts the town

Or, I could say that you are actively trying to stifle discussion that would benefit the doctor's decision. It's all about perspective, isn't it?

[BrianMcQueso]

Since we have lost two investigatory roles, then we must rely on scum tells and player behavior to determine our lynches. Erg0's post 209 is rather eloquent in explaining the circumstances on the "commenting on results" scum tell. Xdaamno seems to have been aware of the tell's existence (posts 167, 172).

Xdaamno's surprise seems to have stemmed from the

flavor

of the nightkill, rather the fact that there was a second one. I would believe that "randomly slain" is simply flavor and denoting a kill as "random" should not be interpreted as the killing player had no choice over their target. I believe that we have a vigilante (as part of the town, they are inclined to kill "methodically"), and the anti-town (and thus anti-methodical) mafia kill "randomly". Nevertheless, it is a rather confusing way to be going about things, and I can understand where Xdaamno's mixup stemmed from. In addition, Xdaamno is not alone in his surprise (distad, post 191).

All in all, I'm not seeing Xdaamno's day-starting comment as a scum tell.

[BrianMcQueso]

BrianMcQueso, why would a vig kill Seol? This is not a logical vig target at all. And I strongly doubt the mafia would be given that level of control over the endgame. Mafia + "random" SK makes more sense.

Seol would likely not be the #1 vig target. Still, I'm skeptical as to the presence of two killing groups in a game this small with the town at a disadvantage. Also, having the 'methodical' kill be town-aligned seemed more proper. It's how I would have designed it.

[BrianMcQueso]

I know this is gonna sound biased because he's trying to lead a 'wagon on me, but I'm really not a fan of Simenon at this point. Go through the filter of his posts, there's really not anything there that could be helpful to anyone. Maybe I'm just really against one-sentence posts (and lord knows Simenon isn't the only one guilty of that), but I'm just saying be wary of who you are trusting to lead this wagon.

I did a quick re-read and page 6 is rife with anti-BMQ points that I agree with.

Another example of one-sentence posts that are extremely unhelpful. Joining a bandwagon without any real explanation to accompany it. What, specifically, do you agree with? What parts of my play do you find scummy, so that I can address them? I demand specifics.

[BrianMcQueso]

It is as if you WANT us to think that you are the doctor fishing for suggestions. I think it's a red herring.

If I were a doctor, I would certainly not drop any semblance of a hint towards being the doctor. I wasn't trying to mislead you, I was trying to help the doctor. Obviously I failed, as they did not protect the obvious target (LML), who in turn would be able to confirm the doctor's identity at a later time if the need arose.

Is that more what you're looking for?

Yes, thank you. Original thought > "I agree with X"

but I'm just saying be wary of who you are trusting to lead this wagon.

scummy.

I suspect you = I am scummy. Typical flawed logic.

Maybe I'm just really against one-sentence posts (and lord knows Simenon isn't the only one guilty of that),

Okay. Why?

Let's say I believe Player X is scummy, for whatever reason. But going over what Player X has posted, there's very little evidence to help my case and prove that X is being shady. Convenient, eh? The more you post, the easier it is for people to get a read on you and determine if you are pro-town, and the scum have an interest in not letting players get a read on them. All in all, posting short posts without any relevant information (or "lurking", if you will) is typical scum behavior.

Why was I not voting you?

vote: Simenon

[BrianMcQueso]

I suspect you = I am scummy. Typical flawed logic.

This is a good reason why there should be more votes on BMQ.

If a player finds you suspicious, that does not necessarily make them scum.

I'm sure you've got other other reasons for suspecting me, Simenon, and those may be valid. But if you can't understand what I just wrote, then I'm just going to ignore you completely. I'd rather not waste my words on a player devoid of logic.

I think I can make good, decent posts with only using one line, so I'll stick to that, thank you.

Have you read your posts? We have such all-star posts as "Erm", "/clap", and "Flay wagon please". I'm not asking you to write essays, I'm just looking for a little thought. Admittedly, some of your more recent posts have been better, but still.

[BrianMcQueso]

I'd be willing to support the idea of another cop on the condition that there are sanity issues. It's iffy considering that we also had a tracker, but the nature of Methodical Mafia works against the town, so we might be blessed with more power than usual.

There have one too many sentences with "BMQ" and "Doc" in them. Let me just be blunt, then. I am not the doctor. Now, I know there's an element of WIFOM with that, but believe me, I'm in a position where I would want to be able to claim doctor, since I feel my head is the closest to the chopping block.

We are dangerously spread. Now is the time to pick a lynch and roll with it.

I personally will be able to be active, so this vote is a temporary wagon hop.

It's time to choose a permanent wagon, but this is a temporary vote? Isn't that a contradiction in the same post? All vote changes this close to deadline are important, so I'd be careful not to dismiss it so casually. I find it convenient that Simenon has found a way to rejoin the bandwagon on me while doubly having the excuse of "oh, I wasn't able to change my vote in time" if a lynch were to happen.

I'm still happy with my vote on him, and while there may not be a lot of you that agree with me at this point, I feel it's more important for me to vote who I believe is scum than to join a bandwagon on another player that I don't believe in.

[BrianMcQueso]

yeah, because unless a doctor SOMEHOW managed to protect me tonight, I anticipate being dead tomorrow, so why not a "poor me"?

Unless I'm mistaken, the Mafia can't specifically target you tonight. Didn't they have to set up all their nightkills just like we had to set up our choices?

I'm not crazy about BMQ showing up suddenly.

Maybe I feel the need to be active since I see myself as the most likely lynch this game, but c'mon now Flay.

Everyone

has shown up suddenly. Does the word "deadline" mean anything?

BMQ's "non doc" claim strikes me as a bit odd, in that I'm not really sure what he was trying to achieve with it.

More than one person has said that I've been "hinting" about being the doctor. They've said that I've tried to give off the impression of being a doctor just to make myself look good. That's not the case.

However, I have activity, therefore I can afford to make temporary votes.

Yes, you did stick around, so you could afford to make temporary votes. But what if you just disappeared? I'm calling you out on it so you can't just get away with hiding and letting your vote ride. Your vote, after all, was the necessary third vote to get me deadline-lynched.

Also, BMQ, way to dodge everything else you could respond to right before the deadline.

What have I dodged? Nocmen's post 359, "scummy things overall". VitaminR's post 347, "BMQ is the best bet". A couple people have put me on their scum list. That's fine, but how do I defend myself against that? I can't defend myself against generic posts. If there were specific things mentioned wrong with me, I'd be more than happy to address them, but I can't. And since I can't defend against them, you might as well shove them in my face and say I'm dodging.

[BrianMcQueso]

1. I don't like having your vote on Simenon when I really have not come to suspect him much this game. Why do you feel such an urge to vote for him?

Logical fallacies, mostly. A lot of his accusations against me don't have sound reasoning behind them. It makes me think he's trying too hard to get me lynched.

2. Why did you go do the thing regarding the best move for the doctor to take?

I really wanted to help the doctor make the correct choice. LML was by far the obvious target for the protection, and he didn't receive it. If the discussion wasn't shot down so quickly, I might have been able to convince the doctor to save LML. LML would then know the doctor's identity and that of the person who tried to kill him. Woulda been nice.

3. Why do you beleive Xdammno shouldn't be suspected for his reaction to the NK?

It is my opinion that the "reaction to nightkills" scum tell has become so widely known as a scum tell that it has lost its potency. I don't think that scum are stupid enough to make that blunder any more. You're welcome to disagree with how I see it, but it explains why I personally do not feel Xdammno was scum in that particular situation.

4. Why did you come back only during the final hours, even though you were being suspected constantly?

Here are the dates in which I have posted to this game:
Aug 17 (2x), Aug 19, Aug 23, Aug 24, Aug 28, Aug 31, Sep 01, Sep 06 (3x), Sep 11 (2x, not including this post). I have posted somewhat regularly, about 2-3 times a week. I may not be the most active player in the world, and I'm not able to be. But to say that I've been missing this whole game is an exaggeration.

[BrianMcQueso]

BMQ scum, calling it here. Feel free to embarrass me once the game ends.

You're not as brilliant as you think you are.

Sim, if my memory serves me right, you accused me of not contributing any new information in my first post, and merely repeating what others said. Bearing in mind that everyone in the game had posted before I did, is it really such a lynchworth offense? Has it really snowballed that greatly? Or is there something I'm missing?

[BrianMcQueso]

Vote:BMQ

Man, I'm sure glad I answered your questions.

[BrianMcQueso]

Well, since it appears that you guys will think I'm scum no matter what I say, then so be it. If you're going to kill me off, give me half an hour or so, I want to type up some parting thoughts. You don't have to really read or believe anything there until my corpse turns up innocent.

Oh, and if you'd like me to address anything, now would be the time to ask.

[BrianMcQueso]

I can't figure out what it is, but I've found something.

Maybe it's because you see Ergo as a likelier lynch? Bloodthirsty? Switching bandwagons this late in the day doesn't exactly surprise me. Vote stays.

I've played with Flay before, and something about his play style this game seems different to me. It's not strong enough for me to call him outright scummy, but something doesn't sit right with me. I do appreciate his contributions to the game thus far, though, and you guys should probably keep him around a bit longer.

When Glork is pro-town, he wins games. I'm not just saying that because he's my homie. He's Paragon for a reason. Going off pure metagaming, that would mean that the only reason he is still alive is either that the scum does not know this well enough to kill him (I'd give that 75%), he is scum himself (25%).

And though Glork is usually right about everything, I'm not really buying the Erg0 wagon. I see him as innocenter than some other people, and there's a few guys I'd lynch before I lynched Erg0. Glork, whoever's #2 on your list, go after them. I think your focus on Erg0 is distracting you.

Distad is all over the place. One moment he's making sense, the other he's not. I really don't know where to put him.

I'd put Cogito on neutral. I believe his activity on Day 2 will be a tremendous boon on seeing which way he's going, should he pick up his activity.

I'm putting Xdaamno on Basic Townie, which, as most of us know, is a pro-town role.

I find it ironic that Nocmen suspects me for "showing up at the last minute" even though that's exactly what he's done. I'm willing to forgive him because V/LA is a genuine excuse, but I'd be quick to accuse on those grounds. On a seperate note, I find suspicion in the fact that he did not comment on my replies to his questions, and merely voted me. I'd like to hear why you voted me, and I'd like to hear more detail than "your responses weren't satisfactory".

Very strong pro-town vibes from VitaminJ. He isn't bandwagon-hopping, and he's looking at this game objectively.

My gut tells me LML and Seol are pro-town.

It should not take my death and subsequent innocence to prove that Simenon is a fool, but it looks that is what has to happen.

[BrianMcQueso]

By the way I'm not even considering voting BMQ at this point.

I will never understand the way your mind works.

[BrianMcQueso]

Dear Stoofer,

Could we get a deadline extension? We've had more posts in the past 2 (real life) days than the remainder of Day 1. Plus, there's a million things that have come up that would be very interesting to talk about.

If not, s'ok.

Luv,
BMQ

[BrianMcQueso]

BMQ, your answers just seemed to go against what I have gotten out of the game, and just seem like a run aroudn trying to cover yourself. Also, thanks for putting words in my mouth.

Really? I felt as though I were repeating myself. I do realize that I put words in your mouth about the "showing up at the last minute" thing, and I apologize for that.

The Erg0 bandwagon has really picked up lot of speed suddenly (Flay, did you hammer? or is that -1?). I feel that this needs more discussion, especially since a lot of people have casually switched and with so little time left on deadline.

[BrianMcQueso]

Now to look towards the Simenon wagon, as I'm pretty sure one of the scum had to be on there.

The people on that wagon make up more than half of the remaining people in the game. Probability's on your side to say there was scum on that wagon.

I reluctantly agree with Flay that BMQ probably is the player to look at right now.

Where in Flay's post did you read something like that?

It is my opinion that the "reaction to nightkills" scum tell has become so widely known as a scum tell that it has lost its potency. I don't think that scum are stupid enough to make that blunder any more. You're welcome to disagree with how I see it, but it explains why I personally do not feel Xdammno was scum in that particular situation.

That's an "oops" on my part. I guess these scum tells are worth something after all.

---

Re-reading Xdaamno's posts, he's not too clear on his list of suspicions. Early on he's suspicious of Distad, but he later mentions VitaminR as his top suspect, which is peculiar as he had not mentioned suspecting Vitamin up until that point, which later turned into a vote. It looks like X was trying to slime VitaminR without good reason, and so I'm inclined to put Vitamin on the goodly side based on that. Usually when scum attack their partners, they're... well, pro-town about doing it.

What kind of information are you looking for, Flay? I've already shared my opinions on every player in the game in the post I made right before I expected to be lynched.

On a completely unrelated note, does anyone think there is a special significance to the order in which we leave the town square and arrive again (in the flavor text of ModStoofer's posts)? They're not alphabetical, and I can't seem to spot a pattern right now, but it seems like there should be something important there.

[BrianMcQueso]

Vitamin: Maybe you can help clear up some of my confusion. What do you mean by "the player to look at right now"?

[BrianMcQueso]

Four anti-town players in a game this small seems a bit too much, especially since it could result in a two-day game. As I've said before, the town is already at a disadvantage because of the hampered nightchoices, I don't think we need even more to worry about. I'm still a supporter of the "random" SK that isn't really random theory.

I'm not sure what good speculating about whether or not we're Lynch or Lose would help anyway. I'd think we should try to lynch scum; if we end up lynching town, it's not like we have any control over if we have another day or not.

I'm more in favor of an Erg0 lynch today. I'm not absolutely convinced he's scum, but he did have two players convinced he was scum yesterday, and both have been confirmed pro-town, which has to count for something.

[BrianMcQueso]

Glork and Simenon suspected Ergo. They are both dead, and therefore confirmed as pro-town.

Settle down there.

[BrianMcQueso]

Erg0, you're overreacting a bit to what I said. If I was adamant about getting you lynched, I would have done it yesterday instead of defending you. And I'm not just "riding coattails". Who would you trust more, a player who you know is pro-town, or a player who you can't be sure about? If I sure you were scum, I would have voted you. As it stands now, I'm saying that we should talk about you.

And I don't appreciate the way you're throwing the Simenon thing back in my face. I didn't lynch him by myself, and the way he was playing was extremely suspect. Just because I'm wrong about him doesn't mean I'm wrong about everything.

[BrianMcQueso]

I wasn't accusing you of anything regarding Simenon, I was voting for him yesterday too. I'm just saying that if I was lynched then the same logic would have applied to Sim today (i.e. he was suspected by a dead townie), and it would have been wrong for him as it is for me.

I see what you're saying.

[BrianMcQueso]

I'd think that it would be better for you not to tell us. If the Serial Killer gets to choose their kills each night (as "random" would imply), then they have more information to decide whether or not to protect you. I don't know how likely that is, since you're still alive anyway, I'm just saying that's the only circumstance I can think of where it would be relevant that you told us your target. In all honesty, I don't think it matters either way, since an investigation means little without a result.

Of course, if you were scum and lying to us, then it would behoove the town to hear your "target" so you can't change it based on what happens. Just sayin'.

[BrianMcQueso]

Nocmen is not a bandwagon hopperer. He just made a mistake. That being said, he's probably still scum. Either that, or he's not scum. Take your pick. I really don't know what's going on any more.

Something in the back of my mind keeps telling me Flay is a Serial Killer. It was probably something someone said early on, and that I should not have listened to them because they were just making stuff up, but it's bugging me. I'm going to go try to find it.

[BrianMcQueso]

I'll save you the trouble of looking up the "Flay is SK" theory; it comes from Simenon on D1, post 180.

Yep, that was it. Since it was Simenon, I don't have to worry about it any more. You can return to being innocent.

Well, if you all think I'm scum, why not lynch me?

Just because you're a fool doesn't mean you're scum.

[BrianMcQueso]

vote: Cogito Ergo Sum

Active lurking, etc.

*shrug*

[BrianMcQueso]

unvote: Cogito

I just realized I wasn't happy with that vote.

[BrianMcQueso]

I went back and re-read to try to find something I found scummy about Cogito and failed.

[BrianMcQueso]

EBWOP: Not to say that he's completely innocent or anything, just nothing extraordinary stuck out.

[BrianMcQueso]

Nocmen does not seem concerned that he's one vote (or a few days) from being lynched.

Cogito has disappeared again. Perhaps there was a good reason for me to be voting him.

[BrianMcQueso]

With only one kill, I think my assumption of 2 mafia, 1 serial killer is correct.

I think now would be a good time for me to claim. I'm the Roleblocker, and I'll reveal who my next target is: Mr. Flay. With this knowledge, we might be able to secure a victory here. First, we lynch a player other than myself or Flay. Then tomorrow, if there was a nightkill, we have three players: myself, Flay, and, by process of elimination, the serial killer. If there was no nightkill, we lynch Flay, the serial killer.

There are two pitfalls to this plan:
a) The serial killer's choices may not be predetermined, as flavor would suggest, or the killer has predetermined to kill me anyway. Assuming Flay is not the serial killer, they would kill me tonight, and leave Flay the only confirmed innocent. He then carries the burden of deciding who wins the game.
b) The serial killer has the option not to kill and exercises it. We then lynch innocent Flay tomorrow, and I have a 50/50 chance of blocking the serial killer the next night, therefore giving us a 50/50 chance of victory.

I understand that this plan is not foolproof, but it's an option I want to put out there. Regardless of what we do, it appears we have bought ourselves another day and that we are not lynch or lose today.

[BrianMcQueso]

I blocked VitaminR last night. I'm willing to reveal my past targets (and future targets) upon request.

Death scene evidence points to no, length of night points to yes.

This is something I had glossed over. The nights have been incredibly short. I would assume that the Serial Killer is predetermined as well, and the randomness is only flavor. That still leaves me with a 25% chance* of being killed tonight regardless.

* +/- however much the Serial Killer would want to kill me before the game even started. The SK's targets have been LoudmouthLee, Xdaamno, and VitaminR. At first I was trying to metagame who would want those people dead, but I think I've figured out how the targets are being chosen. I'll share that information a bit later.

[BrianMcQueso]

BMQ, am I right in saying that you blocked Simenon night 1?

You're good at this. Yes, I blocked Simenon night 1.

[BrianMcQueso]

I'm not quite that good - I'm the tracker, I saw you do it.

One final question: did you block me night 2?

No, I didn't block you night 2.

Tracker, eh?

[BrianMcQueso]

On night 2 I attempted to track Flay - the mod PM said that I tried but got no result.

I think you're drawing the wrong conclusion here. We have two possibilities:

1) Flay did not target anyone that night.
2) Flay is the Serial Killer, did target someone last night, and is immune to tracking. This immunity to tracking also extends to an immunity to roleblocking, and my plan will not work.

#1 makes more sense to me. [/occam's razor]

Erg0, who is your target tonight? I would understand if you'd rather not say publicly, as I'm hesitant about revealing my next target (after Flay).

@ Distad (and anyone else): If you do not believe we are at 4x Pro-Town, 1x Serial Killer at this point, what do you suggest we're looking at? I'm very open to ideas at this point.

[BrianMcQueso]

Another possibility is that there was one kill last night because both scum groups targeted the same kill.

Damn you and your reasonable explanations.

I also thought it was most likely that the SK was sending in kills during the day, especially considering that we had a gap of several hours between the hammer and the night scene on day 2.

Or, the moderator wasn't around to post the nightscene.

With Flay's sleepwalking targets, and the order that players are leaving and arriving, there's got to be something there we're not seeing. I'm not sure I'd be able to crack it (especially since I'm hesitant to spend time on it if it's a red herring), but I'm curious as to Stoofer's explanation once the game is over.

The lack of kill can also have resulted from having to use his ability.

I was unaware that mafia would have to give up their nightkill to use an ability (that's not typical, is it?), and if so, that any ability would be more beneficial than a nightkill.

[BrianMcQueso]

I'm hesitant to reveal my next target, as it could potentially catch a fake-claim in the bud when they pretend to have a result tomorrow.

I'll reveal if enough people are interested, but right now it just seems to be Cogito.

[BrianMcQueso]

If we were to let Flay live and get roleblocked, I don't see the harm, as his role doesn't seem to be doing anything helpful for the town. By that same token, we don't stand to lose much by lynching him. And in related fashion, that means Cogito is a safe lynch, as he appears to be naive and we stand to lose little from offing him.

Before we move on, I'd like everyone still alive to give me a straight answer: Should I reveal my next non-Flay target? This is important, as I may not be alive tomorrow, and could leave you guys with a confirmed innocent in my place.

[BrianMcQueso]

The next target's Erg0.

Distad: Why did you rule out your no-lynch idea? I think it merits discussion.

What if we no-lynch, block-Flay? With potentially two killers, it would still leave us at worst at 3 players. If we mislynch today, with two killers, it could get down to 2 players and game-over.

[BrianMcQueso]

I find it peculiar we don't bring up suspicion of me until after the lynch has been confirmed. Trying to sling some mud, there?

Also, I have a sneaking suspicion the killer used the same method for creating their targeting list that I did. But that's just pointless speculation at this point.

[BrianMcQueso]

Erg0: Just out of curiosity, how would you explain the lack of nightkill?

[obv]

vote: Erg0

[/obv]

[BrianMcQueso]

It just occurred to me... Lots of confusion is possible in a game feating Erg0 and Cogito

Ergo

Sum...

I kinda noticed that 28 pages ago.

Oh, and my next target is distad, in case anyone cares.

[BrianMcQueso]

I wish I was blocking Cogito tonight; a naive cop is a scummier role, and his behavior has been scummier relative to distad's.

Nevertheless, I think it's all moot.

[BrianMcQueso]

BMQ scum, calling it here. Feel free to embarrass me once the game ends.

^_^

I'm very surprised at how things turned around for me this game. I went from being the likely lynch candidate on Day 1 to seemingly the townliest player on Day 2. I'm glad I waited on my claim, too, else the scum try to get me lynched (which might have been easy, if they had just carried the Day 1 momentum). Roleblocker has always been my favorite role, especially when it comes down to sealing up endgames.

Also, I knew I should have blindly trusted Glork and lynched Erg0. Glork is ALWAYS right!

It turns out I was completely wrong about having my targeting list like up with the Serial Killer's. I started with the one person I had a strong opinion on, then worked reverse alphabetically. I guess I was just overly paranoid when two of my roleblocker targets died on consecutive nights.

All in all, my kudos go to Flay. SK is always an extremely difficult role to play. I think that with an early cop claim (with "Mafia or Cult" flavor text to back it up) instead of a befuddling sleepwalker claim, you could have pulled it off. I had you as pro-town; there's a reason my plan was designed to keep you alive. I had considered that it didn't matter who we lynched, as I would still get a roleblocking in, but I wanted to set up the endgame with you in it because I trusted you. Which is why I'm bad at this game.

[BrianMcQueso]

Wait, so you thought YOU might be an unaware Serial Killer??

Quiet you.