Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[VitaminR]

*hi-fives CES*

I have been reading along, so I'm up to speed. I'll type out my thoughts tomorrow.

[VitaminR]

LML's claim strikes me as too ill-conceived for a townie to do. On the other hand, I like his suspicions of Mr. Flay. Also, watcher results are very difficult to fake.

LML's plan: I think its scum getting us to try that in order for him to figure out all the powerroles the town has.

Nocmen, why do you think this?

Mr. Flay makes me uneasy.

So assuming we've in fact discarded LML's plan, how do we proceed with D0? Having people take a stand today might be useful for determining *actual* nightchoices, and it'll give us something to build from D1.

Asking Seol how we should proceed is scummy and lazy at best.

I also didn't like his "speak English or die, Lee"-belligerence, nor his talk about SKs.

I agree with CES about not generating random lists. I don't really see what benefits they would give us, aside from taking some of the enjoyment out of the game.

CES is obviously pro-town, btw.

This sort of cautious suspicion is scummy:

Personally, I wasn't ready to cast much suspiscion on LmL after the flawed course of action presented near the start (I could imagine a town player doing this), but after statements like:

You're defense of Flay is noted, Seol.

I'm not so sure. I didn't take it exactly that way, so this could be twisting words.

[VitaminR]

When I first read that, I was like "This could maybe work, but I doubt everyone would be cooperative of him in order to get it to work right. If he can figure out how to limit down the possible scum it would work. On the other hand, if he is scum, he can use this to figure out who the powerroles are (if they believe and target him)."

So you think there is a real possibility that, if LML were scum, he'd be a Mafia Watcher?

Glork & distad, I think Day 0 could be very valuable

if

enough players participate, both in helping us compile lists and giving us more info for the Day game.

Flay, I seem to remember it came after a discussion with Seol, which is why I thought the question was directed at him. Regardless, though, it shows a lack of direction that I wouldn't have expected from you.

I like Simenon's entrance into the thread, but I kinda feel he's attaching too much importance to something relatively idiosyncratic.

[VitaminR]

I'm not entirely sold on the BMQ thing, but I don't particularly like his responses.

[VitaminR]

I make that three pseudovotes on BMQ (CES, me, Simenon) and none on anyone else. Anyone else want to take a position (either for or against anyone) before we go to night?

I will vote Mr. Flay tomorrow.

[VitaminR]

Vote: Mr. Flay

, though I don't particularly subscribe to the SK theory.

[VitaminR]

CES, could you get on the Mr. Flay wagon, please?

Thank you.

[VitaminR]

No.

I don't feel it has merit.

Okay. Why?

[VitaminR]

Erm... what crap-logic?

[VitaminR]

VitaminR, why do you want to create a Flay wagon? You already said that you don't subscribe to the SK theory.

I said yesterday that I was going to vote Mr. Flay. It has nothing to do with Simenon's SK theory.

1. I didn't like his belligerence towards LML.
2. I didn't like the way he asked the town how to proceed.
3. (I haven't mentioned this one yet, but I do think it's important), there was this exchange of posts:

If vanilla townies don't have any lists to make, then his theory can't make sense (And they don't).

Argh! Could we STOP with the claims please???

I didn't think Xdaamno's post necessarily implied a claim. Mr. Flay's response makes me suspicious, because 1) the outrage seems put on and 2) it takes away from that uncertainty.

[VitaminR]

I don't think 3 is a scum tell. The two quotes were taken out of context (I had to go back and look at them). Granted, we haven't heard from him yet on this, but in looking back, it looks like more of a response to myself and ojpower.

In what way? I read back and I don't see what you mean. Could you quote me the posts you think Mr. Flay was responding to?

Ah. Well, thanks Erg0. I must have missed that. Many apologies, Stoofer. I still think that it would have been nicer for Seol to do what you just did. I will remember to avoid him in games from here on out.

You'd be missing out.

The "dozen times over" things seems blown way out of proportion. I don't think it's that significant.

[VitaminR]

distad, I don't think there is a stronger implicit claim in any of those two quotes (and I still doubt that that was what Flay was referring to). Regardless, though, it doesn't change my point.

I'm not fond of CES' Glork vote. Hyperbole doesn't seem a good reason to vote someone. CES can do better.

[VitaminR]

Right now, I think Sim is probably town... for the record.

You've been 0 for 2 so far, Distad. Wanna try again?

*goodposting*

Also, why Simenon over me? I've been on Flay all day. I'm getting a strong "scum defending scum"-vibe here.

FOS: distad

Glork and Sim are probably town. I thought was pretty sure CES was town earlier, but his Glork vote is bothering me. Nocmen I want to hear more of, though I had a good impression of him earlier. I'm neutral on Erg0, he hasn't really done anything to worry me. distad, Xdaamno and BMQ all seem mildly scummy to me (I order them that way in terms of scumminess).

[VitaminR]

In response to #1 from the followup post, my belligerence toward LML is real and goes back to previous games we've played together. Lee is a very aggressive player and I respond in kind, plus we have a positive rapport that tends to build discussion. In that sense, I'm sad to see him go, and wish he hadn't been quite so cavalier about outing his role and painting a target on his own back.

I just got the feeling you were trying to bring out his "loud" side.

Regarding #2, what else did you expect to do Day Zero except discuss how to proceed? Presumably the point of that exercise was to allow people to make semi-informed decisions if they had lists to create, and I wasn't the only one doing it. I think your singling me out was bad logic, but you're far from the scummiest person around at this point.

You were the only player to do that. I didn't single you out. You're very quick to call something "bad logic."

Unvote: VitaminR, Vote: Glork

who is unhelpful

in addition

to being opportunistic. Simenon would be a close second choice, if the bandwagon leans that way, for the already addressed SK theory and paradoxically for the fact that he

dropped

my wagon yesterday, after lobbying so hard for it on previous pages. I think this theory that I'm the SK because I mentioned the "SKs claim Vigilante" metagame is absurd. Give me a *little* credit for not being completely transparent, will you?? But latching onto that is opportunistic and counterproductive in my view.

This has a scummy "building a case on one player, but voting the other"-feel, and I don't like either cases. Calling Glork unhelpful is a stretch and I don't see how joining a wagon is necessarily all that scummy. Your Simenon case is also not that convincing.

We need to be lynching Flay today.

I've scanned the thread since that exchange on page 8, and don't see any other specific questions, but let me know if I missed one. I'm still a little overwhelmed with catching up here...[/quote]

[VitaminR]

Okay... you've made it abundantly clear that Flay is your choice for the day. I don't agree, but fine. I'm just asking if you'd be willing to entertain the thought of investigating others today for future looks. In particular, what do you think of Simenon's BMQ "wagon"?

I'm perfectly willing to look at others. I outlined my opinion of everyone in the game in the post before that.

I think the wagon has some merit and BMQ hasn't really posted anything to make me think he's pro-town, but the points against him aren't that strong and I could easily see a town player behaving like he has.

[VitaminR]

You were the only player to do that.

I WHAT?

You were the only one to go "what do we do?" instead of offering suggestions yourself and thinking about the strategical implications. All of your quotes are just people saying Day 0 could be valuable.

[VitaminR]

Where's CES in all of this?

[VitaminR]

I don't really see all this suspicion of me here. I've thought Flay was scum from the beginning (from my very first post). I think my reasoning was valid enough and it has definitely been consistent. What's so suspicious?

Even now, though I think distad is telling the truth, the existence of two cops hints at sanity issues to me. I don't personally consider Flay cleared (note: this is my personal gut feeling, I don't mean that I'll continue to vote Flay. That is obviously not prudent).

With the deadline in mind, I think BMQ is the best bet.

Unvote: Mr. Flay,
Vote: BrianMcQueso

[VitaminR]

Way to respond to what I was saying.

[VitaminR]

I think the main problem is with VitR is that now, with his response and vote to BMQ, it is very suspicious, something like "Well, I can't get on the first bandwagon I want, so I'll join the second one".

It's not really like that. The deadline is really close and this is likely to be the last time slot I'm online in to say anything about it. Also, BMQ has been on my list all day (as I've indicated) and there is a good reason to hold off on going after Flay (distad's claim).

VitR, another reason for your suspect is what your previous person said. I pointed this out in my last post, ojpower's posts seemed as if he slipped up to saying the people he would target would die.

Fair enough. That was a strange thing to say.

[VitaminR]

Way to respond to what I was saying.

Eh, I couldn't see much that was relevant to your defence, or particularly worth commenting on. Did you expect a response to a particular thing?

I wanted to see your reasons for suspecting me, to be honest. My head is fairly clear about this game and my suspicions in it and I find it surprising that I'm under this much attack now.

[VitaminR]

I'm not really surprised by Xdaamno turning up scum. I know CES has been really busy lately, but that should ease up in the next couple of days.

I reluctantly agree with Flay that BMQ probably is the player to look at right now.

[VitaminR]

BMQ still seems unlikely to be scum, especially in light of Xdaamno's general attitude toward that lynch possibility.

This one.

Doing some re-reading tomorrow.

[VitaminR]

Huh? I said BMQ was

unlikely

to be scum in post 483, based on Xdaamno's behavior. Where are you coming from, VitR?

I meant to say "isn't the player to look at right now." D'oh.

[VitaminR]

I think CES has a strong chance of being scum. His Glork vote yesterday wasn't particularly well-motivated and his BMQ vote wasn't particularly well-motivated.

Also, I want to hear Flay's new theory.

[VitaminR]

I don't particularly like Nocmen's jumpy responses in the last page. I don't think Erg0's reasoning is that good (I think your reasoning around Xdaamno's last vote is a bit suspect, it doesn't really need to mean anything), but he seems to have hit on something there.

At the moment, my top two suspects are CES and Nocmen. I don't think distad, Erg0 or BMQ are scum, but I can still see Mr. Flay as one.

[VitaminR]

This whole theory thing is weird. I definitely want to see this explained in the end.

[VitaminR]

Erg0: Good point. Does that actually make No Lynch viable? If there are 4 pro-town now, it would up the chances by one that we'd still be alive tomorrow, but I'm not sure it's worth it just to get another round of night actions.

Xdaamno's vote on VitaminR in the lack of any other bandwagon strikes me as really weird, still.

Vote: VitaminR

- I could probably be persuaded to vote Nocmen at deadline, but it seems like he just made an honest mistake there.

I like your reluctance to vote Nocmen (I'm a little unsure too), but I'm baffled by your vote. Xdaamno's vote was strange, yes, but I don't see why that suddenly makes me a good guess for scum. What do you think he was trying to do?

I really don't like this. I still think Mr. Flay is scum... everything about his posts is just off.

BMQ changing his mind seems sincere.

[VitaminR]

Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum

I've been thinking about this game and I'm almost 100% sure he's scum.

1) His suspects have been Glork and BMQ. Glork we know to be town and I'm almost certain BMQ is too.

2) His reasoning for voting Glork was bad. Hyperbole is not a very good reason to vote someone. Also, the spat with Glork started because CES was poking around about Glork's Xdaamno vote (and, importantly, without giving his own opinion on it).

3) I know CES and something's off.

[VitaminR]

Everything VitR does that doesn't involve me seems sensible.

It's 'cause I'm town.

I'm pretty sure distad, Erg0 and BMQ are town. Nocmen I'm unsure on, but I can see him as scum. My gut says Mr. Flay is scum, but distad's result makes me doubt that. CES is just scum.

[VitaminR]

I still like my vote on Nocmen. I also like the fact that distad followed up on his suspicions with a vote without having to be pushed to do so. I don't like the idea that we may end up with another last minute rush like last time (especially since I probably won't be online all day on deadline the way I was last time) so I'd like to see people state their preferred deadline targets as soon as possible.

I will switch to Nocmen if it's necessary, but right now I prefer a CES lynch and I think it's a better course of action.

[VitaminR]

Could you explain why they are your top suspects? Also, I think you should claim.

[VitaminR]

It's for a large part based on gut, yeah, but you know I vote people based on that. That's a weak FOS.

[VitaminR]

I knew Flay was scum from the first time I read the game! Erg0 had me completely fooled, though.

Very enjoyable game. Well-designed and executed, Mr. Stoofer.

[VitaminR]

Flay wasn't scum though. He was the SK

I use the terms interchangeably. He was evil anyway.