Mafia 48: Himalayan Mafia - Game over!

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey all, I'm replacing LML. I've read the thread once and need to give it one more go before I feel comfortable enough to join in. Back soon.

[MrBuddyLee]

On evidence alone I think Cesspit would have been a better choice yesterday. There appear to be more curious actions and conversations relating Cess and known scum than neon and scum. One thing I noticed in particular was how enthusiastic DG was about being the second on my wagon, when before Lloyd's post it looked like Cesspit was headed for a sure lynch.

[MrBuddyLee]

JamesSparrow, you voted Cesspit after reading Twomz's vote summary post. Broomhead had a pretty much identical voting record to Cesspit. What made you decide to vote Cess instead of broomhead?

Also, what's your reasoning behind finding Fritzler scummy, if you still do?

creampuffeater, of the players remaining alive, you've only specifically mentioned you found Mr. Flay and Fritzler scummy. They were voting for each other yesterday nearly up until lynch time. What's your take on that situation? Also, you haven't given your opinion on anyone these past two weeks, just defended yourself. Why no opinions on who's scummy?

Cess, I've thought your votes for Fritzler were for terrible reasons for much of the last few days. Why do you currently place him in your top two?

Mr. Flay, after the RA mislynch you voted Fritzler out of the gate. I saw his Cesspit lynch vote right before your post as the logical one right then, and it was Pooky who pretty much rang up RA, not Fritzler. So why'd you get so aggressive on Fritzler there instead of Pooky?

broomhead, two days in a row you placed the hammer and both times it reads like you really didn't think either one was scum. Are you going to hammer Cesspit, and do you think he's scum?

I'm most likely to vote Cesspit once I hear answers to the above questions. I thought he was the logical lynch after day 2, but Pooky got the ball moving in another direction. Cess spent days 3-4 quibbling about unofficial vote counts and next to Twomz, he was the lamest vote on neongrey (basically stated no opinion.)

I haven't found Fuldu or DeadRikimaru scummy.

[MrBuddyLee]

(was cess's vote on neon) Lamer than broomhead??

This is like asking if the Backstreet Boys were lamer than Milli Vanilli. They were both terrible.

Other than Twomz, everyone who voted for neongrey yesterday made their first mention of her in their vote to lynch post. Broomhead at least waited two days after the penultimate vote, it was stated that there was no way any other lynch was gonna happen, and then he applied another hammer. Sure, I'd rather have seen him find someone else to vote for and support it with a decent argument, but it was basically a mercy killing and given the situation I don't see it as scummy. If he does it a third time, I think he should be lynched on principle.

Cess's reason for voting neon straddled the fence, the same way he straddled on DGB:

Neongrey's vote of Fritzler after me could be seen in two ways, much like my vote. Agreement, or deflection away from the scum partners... vote: neongrey

Then there's DGB. On one hand they seem to be the most voal person here, helpful and eager. On the other, there's a few bits and pieces noted by others that make me suspicious enough... vote: DGB

I didn't find his stated reason for voting either as expressing a strong personal desire to lynch--they appear manufactured.

[MrBuddyLee]

broomhead posted nothing but one defensive post yesterday--didn't help find scum, didn't vote.

creampuffeater posted suspicions of cess, fritzler and jamessparrow yesterday.

Fritzler posted suspicions of flay and cess and a bunch of sarcasm yesterday.

None of them were great town yesterday, but I don't understand picking Fritzler over broomhead at this point. The tiebreaker being that broomhead hammered two townies he didn't think were scummy.

[MrBuddyLee]

Why would my voting record be so poor here, if I knew I could do something about it?

I can think of one reason.

A three-way discussion between us, however, is likely to just benefit the scum, whoever they are....

If the three of you are town, that's correct, you're more likely to whip up paranoia and end up lynching an innocent. But if one or more of you is scum, your discussion is nearly certain to benefit town. Also, you've been finding Fritzler scummy, and are currently voting for him, but that statement just kinda implied you think he's town.

[MrBuddyLee]

I reread creampuffeater's post history because his comment just now to Fuldu was odd. His one big mistake in this game was thinking that since DG's always goofy, she wasn't scummy in this game, and ignoring the smaller tells apart from the goofiness. But he showed decent judgment as second on tidus, and measured curiosity about Fritzler and Flay. I'm not seeing the creampuff scumminess.

Twomz, you said that creampuff was probably the play today. Is that just because he had the most votes yesterday next to Cesspit, or do you really find him scummiest? I liked your logic on Cesspit, and thought people should have listened to you and lynched Cess earlier. But your post history shows very little original thought on creampuff, so why that lynch today?

You say "lurking, not contributing and terrible voting record". I'm not sure I agree his voting record is that much worse than anyone else's, and he's lurked less than JamesSparrow and broomhead. I agree, eventually people who aren't vocal need to go, but I'm not sure this is the right time for creampuff. I've found that push somewhat out of place. I see broomhead and Flay as more reasonable choices for today.

vote: broomhead

[MrBuddyLee]

Caught scum show up in most of the comparative posts as the less suspicious individual, but often in such a way as to be justifiable later on. Also, a random vote on DGB at the beginning that doesn't threaten her but creates some amouont of voting pattern.

The only contrast to this is that creampuff was on the tidus lynch before he outed himself, and that deserves some slack. But what I find odd is that, instead of being emboldened by a successful lynch, creampuff seems to have backed off substantially since then, as if it wasn't quite the outcome he was hoping for.

That one? I remember reading it yesterday, didn't reread it today til now. Your comment on the initial DGB vote is interesting--the stated reason for the vote is unusual, even for a first post vote.

[MrBuddyLee]

Pretty sure that was a funny.

[MrBuddyLee]

These are my top three suspects.

broomhead - He's lurked and voted poorly, and hasn't asked questions that would help either catch scum or give us insight on his alignment.

Mr. Flay - Has voted inappropriate people several times.

Twomz - His degrees of certainty have been out of proportion to the evidence at hand on several occasions.

JamesSparrow owes us more to work with, but I don't find anything he's posted scummy.

[MrBuddyLee]

What? The deadline is like a couple of minutes away. Might as well have a bit of fun.

Well, at least you're carrying on the rich broomhead tradition of hammering people you don't necessarily find scummy, which is good for continuity.

If Norinel doesn't show up for a few days and your vote might have actually meant something on another candidate, you're in for a world of hurt.

[MrBuddyLee]

The most notable things about Flay were that he went after his scumpartners early but wasn't willing to sacrifice them for his benefit, and that he stayed off the three lynches of townies, letting the town do the dirty work.

Vote: Dripping Goofball

for a weird kickoff. What makes HezLucky so special that he'd be your automatic first-draft pick for scum recruitment?

Unvote: DG

for right now because this wagon is going WAY too fast

(to tidus) Ehh? You find Cesspit' to be "playing it safe" and then unvote him? Where's the logic in that?

A tidus wagon develops like a steamroller. While there's plenty of reason for it, it seems similarly suspicious to the one that landed on DG earlier in the Day.

Vote: tidus of quittingland

The only other person he went after early was MOS, for lurking.

He went after his scumpartners hard until their wagons grew, then he softened on them. The conclusion that I'd draw from his early behavior, if any, is that

1) the last scum was lying low at the time but not so low as to get called out by Flay for lurking, or

2) the last scum was playing well and hadn't said anything Flay could use as distancing material.

The next player he went after was Fritzler, and stayed on him throughout the game. Reasons he gave for voting Fritz D2, D3, D4, D5:

* Fritzler, on the other hand, ignored the bandwagon on tidus, and had some strange behaviors on D1 (I already mentioned that he's shown full awareness of the recruitment scheme AND said he has people in mind he might have recruited).
* Fritzler is less than helpful as town, and dangerous as scum, because he's so random/hard-to-read
* What's with the "gotta be on a bandwagon" crap
* Fritzler, on the other hand, is acting more 'normal' than usual, which is unusual for him
* DG's question to Fritz about a recruit.
* he's scummy for having a behavioral change
* It's sleazy. You gave yourself a bit of authority there, by making a vote count without even saying it was unofficial
* Fritzler: a strong "recruited scum" candidate.
* Fritz has been squirrely all game
* Everyone on that (RA) bandwagon ought to be ashamed, but Fritzler looks like he's angling for a repeat.
* There's enough of a feel of "distancing" between her(DGB) and Fritzler
* Fritz comes out and says he thinks DGB is scum, sans investigation or any real reason at all, but then backs off and stays off the tidus lynch
* I don't think Fritzler is above exploiting weakness in his teammates
* Interaction between him and DGB on Day One.
* Fritzler coming on as more 'serious' and his playstyle being different than it usually is
* His certainty with his suspicions.
* I just find him scummy/irritating in general.

It's an unbelievable amount of hammering, as compared to the kid gloves treatment of DGB, tidus, Pooky, creampuffeater and broomhead/CES, his other suspicions over the course of the day. I'd be surprised if Fritzler's scum, seeing as how Flay left himself room to back off each of his other scumpartners. If a wagon ever developed on Fritzler, I think Flay was committed to it.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'd be surprised if Fritzler's scum, seeing as how Flay left himself room to back off each of his other scumpartners.

oh this is why lordy left me alive

he knew idiots like MBL would attack me

breaker one-nine I repeat, Fritzler

not

a primary suspect, over

[MrBuddyLee]

I find MBL's post to potentially clear Fritzler to be odd. I'm more suspicious of MBL than Fritzler.

Lloyd, Flay left us a rich history to work with. I gave my thoughts on what it meant, and I think everyone else should too. Would you mind sharing what you found odd about my analysis of Flay's play?

[MrBuddyLee]

Why did you replace?

Not sure if you realize this, but this game's been going on for like four months. There are only a certain number of lynch opportunities left, and for you to piss one away if you're town shows a ton of disrespect to the rest of the people playing.

I don't get the sense from your post or James's history that you're scum. I suggest you ask for a replacement rather than pull this BS.

[MrBuddyLee]

Night 6:

The group awakes to find another of their number brutally murdered. Perhaps the final remaining mafia is seeking revenge for their fallen comrade... or they're just killing someone every night like always. Anyway, Fuldu has been fooled for the last time, or something.

Fuldu (Townie) - killed Night 6

[MrBuddyLee]

My suspicions and reasoning behind them:

CES - Bad voting history (Fuldu, fritzler, pooky, RA, cesspit, neongrey), no interest in finding scum, lurking as a replacement.

creampuff - Made strange posts attacking jamessparrow, fuldu and lordy recently which come across as canned.
twomz - Showed a lack of seriousness and excessive certainty in midgame but has sobered and appears to be hunting scum.
lordy - His predecessor James gave no major scum vibes, but lordy has been bizarre and suspects only creampuff, and gives no original reasons.
lloyd - His asking questions of people makes it appear that he's scumhunting. His shift from voting Fritz to Fritz as his only GG was unexplained.

fritzler - Led the charge on DG and Flay. Flay's attacks on him were so over the top, I doubt he's scum.
Yosarian2 and rikimaru - The tone of their posts is pro-town and I agree for the most part with the people they voted for and the reasons why. They demonstrate consistency and no sense of manipulation.

vote: CES.

As of now I'd switch my vote to creampuff over lordy if it comes down to deciding between those two.

[MrBuddyLee]

Anyway, I need to finish reading the thread and we need to ask ourselves why Fuldu got killed. I mean, he wasn't voting for Mr. Flay.

that's your entire contribution for today. weak, particularly for a mountainous game.

[MrBuddyLee]

I, personally, would be rather surprised if CPE turns out to be scum, especally considering the way Flay was trying to get broomhead lynched earlier in the game.

Can you elaborate on this please?

[MrBuddyLee]

creampuff's voting history: DG, tidus, fritz, neongrey, cesspit, Flay, lordy

broomhead/CES's: Fuldu, Fritz, Pooky, RA, cesspit, neongrey, lloyd, an inconsequential hammer on Flay, no vote at all yesterday

If you assume creampuff is scum, he's been 3/7 on votes.
If you assume broomhead's scum, he's been 1/8 on votes, and that one was so late it shouldn't be counted.

Vote: CES.

His voting record's been bad. His last post was two weeks ago. Before that, broomhead was a non-entity.

Ultimately, creampuff's strange remarks and reasons for voting haven't been nearly as bad as broomhead/CES's history.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yos, I have Lloyd in about the middle of my list of suspicions and have leaned towards thinking he's pro-town. He's asking questions that for the most part seem engineered to learn more about people. He is casting wide suspicions, but I see it as digging for more info. If you assume he is scum, his voting record is 0/6, which is pretty much the same as broomhead's, you're right.

At this point, we have two people who haven't contributed substantially to a lynch of scum yet. So it's not a guaranteed anti-town trait, just a possible indicator.

thoth/Lloyd's votes: ra, mbl, cesspit, fritzler, cpe, lordy

creampuff, you said:

I think that the scum is either CES (...) or Lloyd (constant attack on me, and just is acting very scummy.)

Can you please explain what you find "very scummy" about Lloyd's posts? Your only explanation to date was regarding his switch to you during the cesspit lynch.

CES, I agree with your last two posts that say nightkill analysis would be helpful. You should provide some.

[MrBuddyLee]

If most of you are convinced that one of the remaining scums are among CPE, CES, and I...

Then, why not just lynch all 3 of us (whichever order) for the remainder of this game?

I'm not convinced, though I think it's more than likely the scum's one of those three. Yos has played well and game events have made Fritz look innocent to me. Twomz, less so, Lloyd also less so. creampuff it's tough to say--his contributions have been minimal but his voting record has been better than most. Based on my observations thus far, I'd say it's most likely the final scum is broomhead/CES.

[MrBuddyLee]

Okay, MBL, assuming I'm scum, can you concretely state how I would benefit from killing Fuldu? Framing him(creampuff) would seem unnecessary, I mean, he's doing a fine job of framing himself.

I do think creampuff was a significantly likely lynch if lordy hadn't replaced JS and gotten weird. But it was far from a done deal, as evidenced by:

* The previous day's suspicions were somewhat even over three main suspects.
* People were willing to ditch the creampuffwagon the next day to go after lordy.
* People are currently voting to lynch someone other than creampuff.

The theory that makes the most sense about the Fuldu nightkill is that it made creampuff a more likely lynch. If you're scum, that would be the concrete benefit considering a few people were taking a serious look at you.

Would lynching creampuffeater, Lloyd and Fuldu not seem the easiest way to a win? Please answer this question taking into account that I was not seen as particularly suspicious at the time of the Fuldukill.

That's not entirely accurate. Yos, Twomz and I indicated concerns about broomhead, who you've replaced. Three people indicated a willingness to follow Fuldu the next day in going after creampuff. No one at that point had expressed significant suspicions of Fuldu, and only broomhead had voted Lloyd. So no, I don't see that pushing lynches of cpe, lloyd and Fuldu would have been a winning scum strategy.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm rereading the thread. Back with a vote and comments tonight or tomorrow.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yosarian (9th on tidus, 4th on DGB, 1st on Flay)

he's read the thread with a critical eye, noticed helpful details that no one else did, and lurker hunted but not to excess. Cautious but mostly correct play.

He wasn't the catalyst of the tidus lynch but made a good post attacking some bad tidus logic. DGB attacked him in a way I don't see scum attacking scum. Hit Flay somewhat hard when Flay wasn't a top target.

Twomz (6th on tidus, 6th on DGB, 4th on Flay)

has posted quite a bit, and a fair amount of good analysis. Gave stated reasons for a few votes as other people's logic, which I'd generally rather see replaced by his own opinions. Until Flay died, based some of his analysis on who a likely recruit would have been.

Even though he was wrong on Cesspit, I agreed with that push and found Twomz pro-town for it. He made a good pbpa post recently about CPE which looks solid.

I find several of his posts scummy style-wise but his reasoning pretty sound.

creampuffeater (3rd on tidus, not on DGB, 3rd on Flay)

Decent voting record, his stated reasons for suspicions started out pretty good but have gotten progressively worse.

cpe's reasons for finding DG, Cess, Fritz, neongrey, lordy and broomhead suspicious were sound. His suspicions of JamesSparrow, lloyd and twomz have been strange and OMGUSish. He was good on tidus, incorrect on DGB but for conceivably ok reasons, and strangely wishy-washy on Flay.


CES/broomhead (not on tidus, not on dgb, 6th on Flay)

broomhead was very thin on analysis. CES has been better.

CES provided nightkill analysis which points to creampuff. broomhead didn't mention many people, but never questioned or mentioned tidus, DGB or Flay until after they were each lynched. CES has made some effort to remedy, but overall broomhead/CES's contribution has been the worst in the game.

vote: CES

creampuff: Why Twomz and not CES? Your Twomz vote is awfully OMGUS.

Twomz: Why creampuff and not CES?

[MrBuddyLee]

Jeez, you both voted so quickly. Usually I'd think scum would vote quickly and the townie would take the time to ask both sides a few questions to try and trip them up. So I guess I can't use that as a deciding factor.

Creampuffeater had a pretty decent voting record all game and didn't really sound scummy to me. Twomz was somewhat flippant for a while but then got serious and started hunting for scum about halfway through.

Towards the end of the game I think you both acted pretty pro-town, so this is a tough decision. I'd take the time to ask some questions, but since CPE is leaving town soon, I think it's best to

vote: Twomz

and hope I caught the crafty scum.

Am I right? I'm thinking my chances here are slightly better than 50-50.

ps. A "well-played" to everyone regardless of the outcome, and a thanks to Mr. Flay, DGB and tidus for proving to be pretty damned good scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

I think LML was betting his "mafia life in this game" only. He was willing to be lynched if DGB wasn't scum.

It sucks to get replacements in mountainous games because to some extent I think they're held less accountable for the actions of the person they replaced. Nevertheless, LML, DGB and Flay did a great job of confusing people and even tidus managed not to give away any partners with his actions.

Thanks for the fun guys--I enjoyed this game more than any of my other ones. Be rougher on the scum next time... even if you think they're town.

[MrBuddyLee]

Couple comments:

When my scumpartner bit the dust (and I wasn't on the Flaywagon), the town looked like:

Fuldu
lordy (Replacing JamesSparrow)
Dead Rikimaru
Lloyd
Fritzler
Cogito Ergo Sum (Replacing Broomhead)
Yosarian2
creampuffeater
Twomz
MBL

I picked broomhead as someone no one could really criticise me for finding scummy, and my vote stayed on him for the rest of the game. I took no hits and was never found scummy for voting broomhead/CES. If he'd have been lynched sooner I might have taken more flak.

I feared: Rikimaru, Lloyd, Fuldu, Twomz, Fritzler and to a lesser extent Yos as people who found LML scummy and/or might turn on a dime if I made a mistake. I wanted to get rid of all of them if possible, but mostly I wanted to let other people drive the lynches while I sat safely on broomhead and repeated my same old accusations over and over.

I thought it would come down to a Lloyd/Yosarian/MBL final trio, but somehow Lloyd got axed before CPE and CES.

I think LML and DGB interacted spectacularly as scumpartners and gave me all the distance I needed to win. Flay also gave no indication of association with LML or with me as he went down.

Props to Lloyd for his fantastic post skewering LML, which unfortunately got tossed in the dustbin of history. Rikimaru was also on to me before his untimely death, and fortunately no one put two and two together to figure out why that kill happened.

Thanks, Norinel and cam.