Smuggler's Port [Game Over]

[GuiltyLion]

What's the best way to handle shipments? Should we spread out more or less evenly across them? Should we order the scummiest person to ship copper all on their own?

I mostly play normal games (and open games that might as well be normal) so if there's theory around this kind of mechanic I'm not familiar with it.

I've never played a setup like this before and I need to do a lot more ~ thinking ~ but these were my initial takes:

- Overall, it seems like Town has to juggle gathering enough information to find at least 2 smugglers, while also preventing scum from obtaining enough information to find the TD
- From a 'deny information regarding the TD' standpoint, the worst case scenario for scum is for them to be split across all three shipments, this gets them no closer to finding the TD
- Therefore I suspect scum will try to avoid at least one shipment, to aim to clear some number of townies as

not

TD, even if it means those townies are also conftown
- This leads me to be thinking about if the ideal way for town to play would be to check a shipment of 3 or 4 people each night, hoping to hit tea (but no TD), and then eliminate from within that pool - I haven't crunched any numbers on this at all though
- The only way to definitively avoid TD being in the pool is for PA to claim and organize the shipments. I'm not sure if this is ideal though bc PA would then have to be extremely careful/guarded about all reads that they give, and it would also mean the game kinda becomes 'follow the IC' to a degree which I'm not sure would be all that fun either.

So in my mind, I'm thinking about whether the PA should claim and at what point. I do kinda gutfeel if we start to get close to PoEing by like Day 3 or Day 4, the PA should claim and organize the last shipment or two to avoid outing the TD. Or if we're feeling really confident (eliminated a Smuggler D1 or something), we could collectively just rerun a shipment of already town cleared.

There's also the question of whether the PA should ever decline to check a shipment to WIFOM the scums, but I haven't put a ton of thought into that yet. It's a move to consider though.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Datisi

Datisi are you excited to play?? You don't

feel

excited to play

[GuiltyLion]

Wait @Menalque I'm legit scumreading Dats, are you not? Want to talk about it?

I'm on the road so phoneposting and prob won't be around much until later today but I got gut townreads on Norway, Titus, username, Alisae so far.

Both Moment and Umlaut kinda gut ping me as bad but that interaction directly above maybe not SvS? Will pay more attn there

Srsly think Datisi is scum though, sorry Datisi

[GuiltyLion]

Why was Moment a townping - that felt like TMI to me if Moment is actually town and if you're town I wanna know what you see in Moment

Also why did you describe Dragon as a "bs" townping

You just feel kinda timid and scared. If I'm wrong I'll hope to figure it out over time, just scumhunt around me

[GuiltyLion]

Wait @Menalque I'm legit scumreading Dats, are you not? Want to talk about it?

I am not SRing dats and don’t see anything out of the normal for her early D1 play. I don’t think she’s abnormally timid at all really?

Idk I didn't feel any excitement from her about playing this game and when I poked her on that front she straight up acknowledged it wasn't there. Maybe this is egocentric but we've joked many times about wanting to finally win together as town and I'm not getting that vibe

[GuiltyLion]

To clarify it's not just a general 'excited to play!' thing but more specifically excitement at playing with several players in this game, including me

but idk we've prob pushed this point as far as we can go rn

[GuiltyLion]

@Menalque - Alisae is a townread, especially for 144 and 187 . I don't vibe with your argument about em, I don't see how that's scum indicative especially since Alisae and I shared the early Dats suspicion so that pool made sense to me

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry for broken post links idk how I did that

[GuiltyLion]

Why the tiger, Menalque?

I felt like his opening post was very out of character for him and made me feel like he really wants to be perceived as town in a way I wouldn’t normally say he does

And I think his datisi take was bad and lazy and I dislike him doubling down on it instead of easing up once he spoke to me about it

I'm not trying to be perceived as town, I'm trying to give thoughts on how we should try to play the game. It's a unique setup with weird mechanics, it feels disingenuous to try to compare that to how I may have opened with you in traditional mafia formats. I can point to plenty of times I've played weird mechanics games where I've opened or spent time on mechanics talk. I also find it misreppy of you in general to assume that's me trying to make some kind of LAMIST play instead of just setup talk.

As for Datisi, why would doubling down on it indicate scum!GL to you? Especially after I explicitly asked you to consider my view? I think Datisi's scum, if that was a made up belief I'd be

more

likely to ease up on it, not less.

I think GL and ali are both scum, or if not I think there is likely one scum in there

This made me go back and read GuiltyLion, and I have to agree, I'm not sure what in his first post is worthy of a townread and his push on Datisi doesn't seem legitimate, it's all references to "feels" but no direct quotes or anything of the like, so vague it can't really be counter-argued.

Alisae sees it. I'm not trying to make an argument that "can't be counter-argued", I'm just calling a vibe that feels off from someone I've played with as town a handful of times.

[GuiltyLion]

ughhhh why do you all post so much over a holiday weekend (not that 4th of July is anything worth

celebrating

mind you but I did take the day off to do a quiet 3 day getaway in a hotel far from home)

reading up

[GuiltyLion]

yes yes I know I know I'm only half complaining, I know I shouldn't

[GuiltyLion]

(1) I think you are
(2) I think a full half the game’s we’ve played have been non-traditional mafia setups and you opened like this in none of them
(3) okay, go ahead, link them
(4) I don’t think you would, I think you know mafia well enough to fake “conviction”
(5) alisae has done absolutely nothing indicating e’s town and honestly it’s weird that you’re not more paranoid that e’s hacking your “datisi feels weird” push if you’re town and not worrying about pocketing
(6) calling off a vibe that she feels off while ignoring that the person who’s played with her a shitload of times is saying she feels totally normal for early game

1)
2) Uhhh... that's not true at all? I don't think any of them were non-traditional other than Nomination and I was literally scum who replaced in on Day 2.
3) Sure!

So in Medical Meme mafia where everyone is some form of a doctor but they don't know which one, I opened by asking about claiming targets in advance and gave my thoughts in it in the next post. Less content than I had here, but that's because it was less of a variation on mafia, the point remains I opened talking about the unique aspect of the setup.

in Noughts and Crosses mafia, again, opened by talking about how ideal strat for town is to vote in the corners, and spent several posts arguing about this. I believe this it he game Umlaut referred to

in One Night Ultimate Werewolf, a super mechanics heavy game, my ISO speaks for itself

in Scumteam unpick first post and subsequent posts were mechanics focused.

5) I disagree with you about Alisae not doing anything to indicate town. I know this is now some 300 posts later and I may get to it myself as I read the game, but I'm curious as to whether you're now townreading Alisae and if so, whether that makes you see my early reasons for townreading as more valid. Further I don't know why you expect me to assume anyone who shares my scumreads is pocketing, that seems like a pretty bad way to play mafia when most players are town, building cohesion early is more productive IMO because it's more likely any given player is town with you.

6) It's fair that I should take your read into account as well, but it kinda felt to me like you just want to be right and were suspicious of myself/Alisae

more

than you actually thought Datisi was town, at least based on the (lack of) explanation you gave as to why you believed in town!Dats. If you can give tangible reasoning as to why Datisi is town (assuming I still want those by the time I'm fully caught up), I'd be willing to hear you out.

[GuiltyLion]

Alisae sees it. I'm not trying to make an argument that "can't be counter-argued", I'm just calling a vibe that feels off from someone I've played with as town a handful of times.

Okay. And how confident are you in that meta?

I vaguely remember you scumreading icon. Why? I dont think they even really posted anything outside of RVS

mostly because i started to form some townreads and not really any scumreads and gut

kind of to be expected with the ratios the way they are, I like the explanation, it's a believable thought process.

VOTE: maxwell

Saw it coming, tbh.

Why does notscience not knowing who username was make notscience more towny rather than less towny?

It's not that

the fact of not knowing that

is a town tell, it's that lying about not knowing it would be a hard scum tell and I'm saying I don't think he did that

I guess that doesn't actually make him town, so make that the strictly logical 'and' in my post: I think he's telling the truth

and

independently of that I get the sense he's town, though I can't point to anything strongly justifying that.

This feels like a backtrack and I don't like it.

This is a bad post

I'm not especially confident in my "meta" (if you can even call it that - I was more operating from a vibecheck perspective than like an actual Discerning Meta Analysis Thesis of how Datisi plays as either alignment), it's just the first impression I had and the first push I wanted to make. The question to me feels like a gotcha question rather than something maxwell is genuinely interested in, cause I think it should have been clear from how I was posting already roughly how 'confident' I was in it:

If I'm wrong I'll hope to figure it out over time, just scumhunt around me

To clarify it's not just a general 'excited to play!' thing but more specifically excitement at playing with several players in this game, including me

but idk we've prob pushed this point as far as we can go rn

[GuiltyLion]

you think scum!GL is more likely to backtrack there? also, i responded to you in 228, would you mind addressing that?

~

I guess really I mainly think scum!GL isn't

less

likely to backtrack so it's a bad reason to scumread me, but I also do think I'm slightly more likely to back down at first sign of conflict on something that I'm making up, especially since Menalque seems to consider himself supremely proficient at reading you

I didn't really see anything worth responding to in 228 frankly - yes the Moment one was the one that stood out as TMI. I didn't find your reasons for townreading Moment especially compelling - I guess it was rude to ask and not acknowledge you though, so I appreciate you giving me an answer

[GuiltyLion]

which games were these?

Nomination; GnR III; a newbie I’m pretty sure; normal 2119

I would consider both nomination and GnR to be weird setup games, although tbf he was scum in nomination

GnR is not a weird set up game. There's definitely no mechanics discussion to be had on Day 1

[GuiltyLion]

I really hate that claim (that big bold "

Enough

" is really lame) and how NK15 has basically excused himself from playing the game, but I may as well provisionally accept it since it gets confirmed tomorrow anyway.

Scattered thoughts:

• I think we all agree Menalque is town.
  
• I've decided Radical Rat is town as well; his gamesolving attempts seem to come from a town place (though also seem a bit like cat-herding; his plan in 460 requires close to unanimous agreement to be workable)
  
• I agree with the arguments that username tone-slipping so quickly is probably a towntell.
  
• notscience' vocal suspicion of the NK claim is weird and pings me
  
• I kind of agree with 493 but given the cat is out of the bag we have to make the best of it.
  
• I think there's a high probability there is at least one smuggler in those who haven't posted since NK15 outed. (Which is six players so that's not a hugely impressive deduction I guess)

VOTE: notscience

This I don't like either

the first three bullets are safe, non-impactful catchup reads that feel like they're meant to blend in rather than do things or shift the gamestate in any meaningful way

I'm struggling to understand the cognitive dissonance it takes to shade the claim in the very first sentence of the post and then also say someone else suspecting the NK claim is "weird".

The last point is bizarre, how on earth are you discerning anything alignment indicative out of people not posting on the 4th of July, especially given that this was your first post back? And then to not even name anything specific about which of the six players you think is more/less likely to be scum?

[GuiltyLion]

page 24 thoughts -

I haven't commented on the username vs notscience thing but I townread username and don't really townread notscience, would currently be okay eliminating there ultimately today, but I think I might want to push elsewhere once I'm fully caught up since that's an easy wagon for scum to let through if it's a TvT

Umlaut looks a lot better than maxwell in Umlaut vs maxwell and makes me feel a bit better about Umlaut. maxwell's accusation of 'fluffposting' does strike me as bs and Umlaut's posting vibes more honest here than it had for me previously

[GuiltyLion]

also I think both nEE and Hel are town

my current townreads, people I wouldn't vote, other than NK15 sits at like {Alisae, Menalque, Norway, Hel, Titus, username, Radical Rat}

[GuiltyLion]

Taking out all the fluff

So you admit to fluffposting?

Spoiler: :thonk:

this is incredibly petty but: FakeGod, my name takes a capital at the start, if you wouldn’t mind for future VCs

Jeez, at least your name was spelled right. Have some gratitude ya snob.

Fun fact, i've got a folder of anime girl reaction pics too. But i've never had the guts to do the gimmick in a mafia game yet.

This game has too many weebs already, if i go all out here then people might start puking rainbows.
I'll try to restrain myself...

These spambots are getting quite advanced.

oh, can i add character images to my posts too?

No.

Whichever corrupt officials are bringing illegal goods in our perfectly legitimate copper business need to pay in blood. Now excuse me while i prepare myself some Earl Grey tea. It’s the finest.

I will always and forever, regardless of alignment or even in MD, have nothing but contempt from the very bowels of the most ragefilled hell for "shitposting meta" in games

Aw boo hoo.

No way i'm listening to the plan of some no good no-avatar hooligan. NO SIR-E-BOB!

LeTs UsE aS mUcH aS tHe DeAdLiNe As PoSsiBlE.
We HaVe To UsE aLl Of ThE tImE GiVeN tO uS tO mAkE tHe BeSt DeCiSsIoN pOsSiBlE.

You're my spirit animal.

In fact,
Here @NK15

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=83480&start=125

Go get yourself an anime avatar UwU.

is backing the terrible “clowned” replacement option,

Ew

Only i should be allowed to use that term.

I need to think more.

I'm starting to question why i signed up to a game that requires thinking.

Only cowards care about what pedits say.

(Also i’m phone posting so that really makes me care even less)
RAW UNFILTERED UNCENSORED NORWEE Right here, right now.

norwee can you respond to my 603 pretty please?

Menalque are you seriously still not seeing any chance at all that Datisi rolled scum here? Posts like this are

bad

!

[GuiltyLion]

Why do you townread me GL?

I like all of your reads and pushes holistically, especially that one where you gave reads on all the players you've played with, I feel like you're seeing the game the same way I am and I don't smell any bs in your pushes

[GuiltyLion]

yoink?

~

don't remember
right now
probably town

that's the opposite of what
it was before
can you elaborate

u started scumhunting
i like that

when?

[GuiltyLion]

notty vote bad
titus vote bad

yah I agree with this and on reflecting a bit more on what specifically about Umlaut's page 24 that I liked, it may have just been genuine indignance at being scumread for 'bad' reasons

the Titus vote feels really awkward/reachy, especially if Umlaut has ever played with Titus before

VOTE: Umlaut

I haven't paid any attention to shipment stuff yet, next VC I'll see who's where and give my thoughts on that but I just spent all my effort on catching up and I'm taking a break now

[GuiltyLion]

I think it’s ironic GL that you’re accusing me of maybe “wanting” to TR datisi and not basing my read on her on her actual posts because I feel like that’s exactly what you’re doing with ali

I mean I think I can point to what feels like an infinite number of posts where Alisae spots and calls out things I think are worth calling out, where we share reads on a situation or a player, where I feel Alisae is doing things to push town in a useful direction. The only reason I'd have to scum read Alisae at this point is sheer paranoia that e's scumgame is

so godly

that I can never feel confident townreading em.

I really cannot say the same about Datisi and as far as I can tell the only reason you've given for the townread is 'playing to town!meta' like... what? What exactly has Datisi done that Datisi doesn't do as scum??

[GuiltyLion]

I am shipping...

Linen

[10] - Alisae, Maki Harukawa, GuiltyLion, Something_Smart, Not Known 15, maxwell, Menalque, Iconeum, notscience, Umlaut

Copper

[4] - Titus, NorwegianboyEE, username, Radical Rat

Wheat

[3] - Datisi, Hel, Moment

Let's Inspect...

Linen

[1] - Radical Rat

Copper

[2] - Hel, Moment

Wheat

[3] - Umlaut, NorwegianboyEE, maxwell

I know things probably changed since this VC but I want to inspect the Wheat group here, especially if Umlaut is town

VOTE TO INSPECT: Wheat

[GuiltyLion]

This doesn't even have reasons attached. How can you "especially like" it?

idk I guess I just basically tried to put myself in Norwegian's eyes and see if the reads and the way he's played make sense, we've played together a lot recently and I felt his not putting myself as a townread was genuine (no effort to pocket/TMI townread me), I share the suspicion on Datisi, I liked that he's townreading Titus/Alisae. I'm not someone who needs reasons for every read especially ones I agree with or feel I understand - which is maybe a flaw in my game and perhaps I'm too hasty to TR him there, but it is what it is.

[GuiltyLion]

i guess i'm more interested as to why - i gave out multiple reads in the same posts, all with the same level of explanation (i.e. none), so i found it weird that you'd single out that one read as TMI and ignore/not comment on the rest

because I wasn't townreading Moment

re 683: can you tell me why you think posts like those are bad?

what's your read on Hel? What's your read on Norway? Do you think the contradiction you're calling out makes Norway scum, or are you just posting just to post?

[GuiltyLion]

If NK15 is town then he’s misplayed hard. But i’m not really willing to take that chance.

He's literally a safe elimination (and in that sense it would be a mistake to not flip him or check him at some point) but also some of the scummiest players in the game (Datisi, Umlaut) are flocking to voting him like flies on rotting meat

heh

okay Maxwell are we town together again cause I would very much like to be town together with you again!

[GuiltyLion]

what's your read on Hel? What's your read on Norway? Do you think the contradiction you're calling out makes Norway scum, or are you just posting just to post?

also on this line of thought to - with respect to the Norway/Hel reads, why can I not find those in your posts already?? Why does it feel like I have to actually pull teeth to get any real solving from you? That's not how you've felt in any of our past games together

[GuiltyLion]

in case I am town)

.

I feel like this phrasing is perfectly understandable in context, where NK15 is volunteering himself to be checked for tea and would be recognized as worth keeping around if he's cleared in the process

this is some weak shit notscience

[GuiltyLion]

Umlaut - real quick, what's your history with Titus

[GuiltyLion]

I sure hope so, been feeling a lot better about you since page 27 or so. Mind giving a word on 925? I think an inspect pool of 5 today is the best approach, if we hit a good parlay there the game's very easy with a few solid townreads.

yeah, I'm on board with trying to hit tea ASAP and I think the reasoning for 5 makes sense, with Ico giving the final call on the group

what are your thoughts on eliminating NK15 today? I overall agree with Moment/Hel in that I don't think his play makes much sense as scum - and I think he's very easy for scum to jump onto right now - but at the same time he's forever going to be a distraction and while I was kinda thinking he might be worth tea-checking, if he's scum in that world then we spend a few days just confirming that we're going to eliminate him anyway.

[GuiltyLion]

I think there's a high probability there is at least one smuggler in those who haven't posted since NK15 outed. (Which is six players so that's not a hugely impressive deduction I guess)

Why? Is there something causal about not posting since NK15 posted and being scum, or is this just a comment on the specific people who make up that group?

man given that NK15 was fake claiming this especially stands out as weird now

[GuiltyLion]

Is it? You asked essentially the exact same question.

yes exactly, that's why I'm reaffirming

[GuiltyLion]

@Moment - sorry I think you thought I was saying your question was weird, what I'm saying is Umlaut all 'people who haven't posted are scum' is and remains weird

[GuiltyLion]

it basically is tho

like yeah I hyperbolized by saying 'people' instead of 'at least one' but the overall point remains the same

[GuiltyLion]

yeh Smart is convincing

NK15/Umlaut/Datisi

quote me on this postgame

[GuiltyLion]

read along a bit earlier today but haven't had time to post yet

My proposed 3 for Ico is
{Datisi, notscience, Umlaut}

I absolutely 100% sympathize with where Moment is coming from and I do think we shouldn't just immediately assume NK15 is scum for fake claiming, I intend to revisit his ISO again a bit today and see if I can try to suss out how I'd feel about him independently of that

[GuiltyLion]

Okay so this dude is probably town

this post (referring to Moment) struck me as notably scummy

notscience has been calling NK15 scum for pretty much the entirety of the game (489, votes him in 905, 929, 942, 946, 954, 961, 1046, 1093), and has also expressed an idea that people defending NK15 - mainly Moment - may be buddies (989, 993, 1001), though he eventually reversed course on this thought (1005).

Meanwhile Moment is pushing against the idea of scum!NK15 or compromise eliminating NK15 throughout, and continues with another long diatribe on this in 1102.

What I hate about this notscience post is that he doesn't really argue with Moment at all, nor bother to indicate that he's re-evaluating his scumread in any sense or even feeling any uncertainty about NK15 whatsoever. and he's already acknowledged that there's good incentives for scum buddies to bus NK15 (if scum), and backed down previously on feeling Moment is scum.

So what's the point of this post? If town!notscience really truly believes NK15 is caught scum, why on earth isn't he arguing with Moment about why we

should

eliminate NK15?

especially

if he thinks Moment is town?

IMO this is just scum trying to be funny/charismatic and fit in. If notscience genuinely thinks NK15 is scum, and also genuinely thinks Moment is town, I'm having a hard time understanding why he gives 1102 such a trite response. I think townies are generally compelled to argue for eliminating their scumreads, the timing of this post combined with the lack of any real content or substantive disagreement with Moment just feels way off to me.

[GuiltyLion]

What do you have to say about Norwegian and SomethingSmart? Where are they in your list? Why is Umlaut more scummy to you than any of these two?

I'm townreading Norway, I'm pretty sure I explained that earlier.

Smart's mostly null to me, I don't have particularly strong reasons to townread him or scumread him. I don't have a ranked 'list', I have players I am fine with eliminated and players I personally wouldn't want eliminated. Smart is in the former group but I also don't especially feel the need to eliminate him.

Umlaut a lot of times feels like he's participating just to participate and argue about mechanics stuff that's easy to argue about, less than actually chasing reads he believes in. His vote on Titus I particularly didn't like, and I've seen virtually no follow up from him on it. I agree with Moment that his recent post felt like he was keeping tabs on who has spewed not-TD. Generally meh vibes throughout.

Why do you expect me to be comparing him to those two in particular? I don't like the way you're trying to box me into doing direct comparisons, that's not really how I like to play especially in a game with 17 players where I'm sure to be off in some of my scumreads (and possibly townreads as well)

[GuiltyLion]

I really cannot say the same about Datisi and as far as I can tell the only reason you've given for the townread is 'playing to town!meta' like... what? What exactly has Datisi done that Datisi doesn't do as scum??

Menalque did you ever answer this

[GuiltyLion]

Despite the mass increase in noise and mech talk my reads shockingly remain mostly untouched. I'll leave the mech play to everyone else I suppose since the lynch is decided on someone I've had at mostly null.

I don't know how you read everything that happened and come away without an opinion. Just bizarre.

I also agree with this, I think this is decent odds to be scum-indicative

it reminds me a lot of a situation I had as scum in Nomination mafia when I came back to the thread after a massive Menalque/RC TvT with Menalque at L-1, and I tried to basically just comment super lightly and peace out and RC immediately caught me for having nothing to say

[GuiltyLion]

However, why is this reasoning you apply to Umlaut not applicable to Smart? When I looked at their ISO I saw almost nothing that resembled reads(except pushing Iconeum for their resistance against me being obvious PA(obviously it didnt turn out that way....), which is LHF), but I saw a lot of mechanics and some fluff. I see more(although still not much) attempts to read and to push the game in Umlauts ISO than in SomethingSmarts ISO.

the thing is Smart often doesn't give reads, especially on D1, like this is how he usually plays. I recently townread him for that and got burned, but it's still not especially scum!indicative for him either.

I'm certainly not gonna complain if Ico puts Smart in the pool, I guess I'm just focusing on Umlaut cause I still really didn't like the timing or reasoning of his Titus vote, that stood out to me. You're acting like I townread Smart, I don't.

[GuiltyLion]

@Menalque - fair enough, I guess I don't see the interactions with you as really all that hard to fake, but the point about being more enthusiastic as scum may be worth keeping in mind. I certainly would feel a little disrespected if Datisi thought this was a scum performance worthy of swindling me

[GuiltyLion]

how many votes is Maki at now? I think I'm already voting to inspect wheat

[GuiltyLion]

thanks, I probably should have just counted that myself lmao

VOTE: execute: Maki

[GuiltyLion]

Idk, I enjoy a good mystery too or like a thriller but mostly I have a thing for magical realism stuff or just straight up literary fiction

ayyyy same

[GuiltyLion]

Actually I don't even know if I want to execute notscience either, given he's one of the ones griping about this.

Siiiiigh

Umlaut

if I'm scum and I know the PA has chosen a lurky/NAI townie to execute on day 1

it is literally the easiest and most freebie LAMIST play to gripe about how we're executing somebody that you don't especially scumread, like if anything I think scum are

less

likely to pretend to be convinced in the value of the elimination

why are you giving NS towncred for this??

[GuiltyLion]

Maybe it’s a wonderful choice and maki will flip scum and the pool will have tea and we’ll execute NK tomorrow and have a glorious win and ride off into the sunset, but it’s barely mafia and it’s certainly not mafia that I will have any fun playing and I think it makes it barely Mafia at all

you realize NK isn't in the pool right

this is kind of a weird mistake, please explain to me how you thought we'd execute NK if the pool has tea?

[GuiltyLion]

I used to have a surefire tell on S_S where if he scumread me he was town, but that stopped working as of late when he townread me as scum

[GuiltyLion]

wait no I just read that back and I'm an idiot and I should have had him

[GuiltyLion]

dank

I say we execute notscience and put Datisi as a solo inspect

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: notscience

[GuiltyLion]

I think that’s a waste if notscience flips town probably

VOTE: notscience

uhh, what? If notscience flips town it guarantees we find the scum in the other two

[GuiltyLion]

Why did you not confirm yourself Icon

am I missing something? I don't see why confirming himself there matters

[GuiltyLion]

hmm actually thinking about maxwell's post I guess notscience is never scum with nk (clearly) whereas if Moment is scum, he benefits regardless of nk's alignment bc if nk is scum he lives longer with Moment's defense and if nk is town he looks hella bad on a Moment scumflip combined with the fakeclaim and probably gets miseliminated anyway

[GuiltyLion]

I still don't see a reason Ico needs to confirm itself as PA

also there's too many votes on NS when we're still deciding the pool

and I'm still kinda trying to decide if I think Moment would be a better lynch, I have the same feeling as whoever it was (Menalque?) who was saying their memory of Moment yesterday was v town

UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

I don't doubt the claim

[GuiltyLion]

there are in fact benefits to not confirming the PA

[GuiltyLion]

Inform me GL of those benefits because I don’t exactly see a reason not to do it.

think about it until you get it

[GuiltyLion]

okay I just read pages 64-65 and I'm seeing Notsci/Norway scumteam now lmao

[GuiltyLion]

I would like a {Norway/Smart} pool for investigation tonight

maybe Umlaut

but will defer to Ico

I'm back to thinking NS is scum, his latest posts today reek of how I play caught/suspected scum, act all blasé about my execution and shame town while not actually doing anything to push somebody else too hard

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Notscience

VOTE TO INSPECT: Wheat

[GuiltyLion]

I'm still not seeing NotScience or Moment as scummy, and Username is most likely tunneling town. Username seem to be personally offended about what NotScience did earlier, but that doesn't mean NotScience is scum. Basically Username has a problem with discerning the difference between scummy play and regular town play he himself doesn't like.

this in particular feels like the most openwolf post in the history of openwolf posts

[GuiltyLion]

My propose invest pool is {Norway, Something_Smart, Umlaut}

am fine with keeping it down to just two players of those three, biggest preference is probably Norway

[GuiltyLion]

My propose invest pool is {Norway, Something_Smart, Umlaut}

am fine with keeping it down to just two players of those three, biggest preference is probably Norway

Why not NK?

I've been swayed by Moment's arguments and I also think NK is likely town if notsci is scum which makes him a waste of an investigation

[GuiltyLion]

I mean, mostly because I refuse to lose the game to a living NK15 who was caught in a lie midway through day 1.

like

this just seems a really shallow way of interpreting things, right?

if NK is scum he made that lie knowing it was going to get exposed at some point this game. the scumteam would be planning on how to game around the fact that NK15 is going down. Why should town follow the roadmap scum is trying to get them to follow, instead of checking elsewhere for scum who are trying to play deepwolf

and if NK15 is town then he shouldn't be investigated and he's also the easiest target for misexecution of all players

I'm just skeptical of all the noise around how we have to use investigations/executions on him. I bought it for a bit on D1, but I've since changed my mind, especially since we got one scum in the pool already.

[GuiltyLion]

If notscience flips red than his immediate disbelief of the NK15 claim seems a lot like TMI, which would imply NK15 is scum.

and I just don't vibe with this easier

NS was pushing

hard

for NK15 execution on D1, like repeatedly and sustainedly. I guess there's the outside chance that NK15 lied to get info on not!TD, and NS planned the bus, but overall I think if I were scum I'd rather execute Anyone But My Teammate on D1 given that the game ends on two scum executions.

I also think it doesn't vibe with my analysis in 1160. If NK15 is scum, and NS is scum, and NS is bussing NK15 for towncred, why does he also assign towncred to Moment who is hard defending NK15? He could use it to paint Moment as scum on a NK15 scumflip.

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion because they're shady.

Why am I shady? Is it just activity level for you? Which of my reads do you disagree with?

[GuiltyLion]

I think a 2 size pool is better than 3

[GuiltyLion]

I think that including both Alisae and Norwegian in the same pool would be suboptimal. In general I think that when creating an investigation pool around expected partners of an expected scumflip, you ought to include one and leave one out. The logic goes something like this – if you're investigating the people who you would already consider your lynchpool for tomorrow, the only outcome that would really change what you were going to do anyways would be an innocent result. If you already consider X and Y to be the likeliest partners of Z and you were already only lynching among them, then getting a guilTea result doesn't change all that much.

Including one, excluding another and including an unknown third party (a sort of "wild card") seems to me to be a better way to narrow things down. Innocent result, lynch the partner suspect you left out and if you're wrong then you realize that both of your most likely suspects were incorrect and in the process you gained an innocent on a third party. GuilTea result, lynch the partner suspect in the pool and if you're wrong then you've still won despite investigating a less suspect third party rather than your top picks for partners.

this was kinda my process, more subconsciously tho

like I don't think I really explained this or fully grokked this myself earlier when I was responding to Umlaut's NS/NK15 analysis I didn't like, but I think Umlaut does look better on a notscience scumflip, I'm more suspicious of Umlaut if NS is town. So I was thinking he'd be a good candidate for if we get the unexpected townflip. Norway is my pick for a likely partner and so if we get a guilTea I'm voting there first always. S_S is just a null slot, a result either way helps with him.

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - Norway is my pick for a likely NS partner

[GuiltyLion]

I'm swayed by the 3 pool > 2 pool argument from a math perspective and now that NK15 has openly claimed NotTD then we may as well throw him in the pool. Umlaut's 1856 again strikes me as someone who is more concerned with scoring points over logical/mechanics arguments instead of actually evaluating alignments, he's right about the flaws in NK15's reasoning but he's also at the same time ignoring the fact that there's really no scum!agenda in NK15 volunteering himself to be in the pool to begin with

[GuiltyLion]

@Fakegod

- I think NK15 shipped wheat in this post

Ship:Wheat

Inspect:Wheat

It is time for Something Smart to come over and join Wheat(Or get lynched)

[GuiltyLion]

I don't wanna poison the well for your question by pressing you further on that front but I may be interested in revisiting this line of conversation if/when NK15 answers.

[GuiltyLion]

It's mostly that a 3 person pool is no worse than a 2 person pool from the perspective of getting a guilty, bc we can use our remaining investigations and executions in such a way that we guarantee 2 scum eliminated by EOD5.

The downside is we might clear more townies as not!TD with an inno result, but if someone's already spewed themselves not-TD then this downside is negated.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm feeling too lazy to do a lot right now, at some point I'll reread D1 and notscience ISO to comb for partners

right now the big movement reads are Umlaut ++more likely town, Maxwell --scummier and worth revisiting - I feel like his analysis to clear Umlaut as town yesterday may have been from the perspective of scum expecting a NS red flip - I feel like he would've been more likely to see where I was coming from re:Umlaut if he had been more open to a town!notscience possibility. Also at the very beginning of D2 he wanted Moment over Notsci.

Alisae scumreads make sense to me as well.

I also agree I'd rather check Datisi/Moment again to clear them rather than open a new pool for today. I think we can consider the new pool on D4 if we're struggling but Datisi/Moment are spewed not-TD yet also not conftown so it's better IMO to clear them and make sure we aren't screwed on the off chance of the double guilty as Menalque said

[GuiltyLion]

do you think there's scum in {datisi, moment}?

No, I think it’s highly unlikely, but I don’t want to keep investigating in the unknown pool unless we really need to because I’m worried about the potential for TD being outed and (you, moment, nk15) are all people who I think are town but who are also confirmed not TD

So basically while I highly doubt tea will turn up in that pool, I’d still like to check it just as insurance against being wrong and because I see no downside really

Yah Datisi this is my thought exactly too

three executions makes me not worried about doing another investigation today. Even if we're wrong then tomorrow we'll have info from the wagons, and can decide who to investigate D4.

[GuiltyLion]

The GuiltyLion thing is a legit thing. He said it himself. As scum, his posts will be really towny but they'll just be far less frequent.

I think the setup is contributing to my lower post count, there are times when I am just waiting around with nothing to say, usually once the investigation/execution is set

[GuiltyLion]

Either Umlaut/notscience was S v S or Umlaut was a townbeard at this point. Umlaut is backing off Notty's wagon to chainsaw it.

If Umlaut and NK 15 are scum together, I'll eat my hat. The odds of town being that good day 1 is insane. The NK wagon drew very little from either existing wagon. Based on this, I highly suspect NK and Umlaut are opposing alignments.

I think given the sum of his play as well as Notsci's tunnel on him D1, NK15 is extremely likely town. Can you explain a bit more how you conclude NK/Umlaut are opposite alignments? The VCA stuff you're putting here is pointing to Umlaut but I think Umlaut's associative with not science look pretty good, especially early D1 Umlaut was on notsci when he didn't need to be IIRC.

I still need to reread the game, I'll try to do that later today or tomorrow.

p-edit: NK15 I think you're misinterpreting Moment's 1437, I don't read that as sarcasm I think he's saying he was genuinely surprised at finding tea.

[GuiltyLion]

maxwell, I declared notscience as scum of the 3 right away, but never voted or made a show of pushing him. That's a lot of easy towncred passed up if I'm scum. Your argument is weak.

this is really scummy

"I passed up the chance for towncred by bussing my buddy as scum, therefore I'm town"?

there's easy explanations for why scum!you would "pass up" that towncred - in the ideal world notscience would not be executed D2, and you would rather wait and see if town would land on executing Datisi/Moment instead. While still having the exact post showing your suspicion of notscience around for when people went to look at associatives later. Also, some people just have a hard time convincingly bussing because they know they'd feel more uncertain as town and they struggle to project an authentic scumread from town.

Further, this is kinda missing/reframing the point Maxwell was saying. Maxwell wasn't talking about your play on D2 being scummy - I think most of us kinda felt like notscience was the right execution pretty quickly and then just spent time partner hunting and arguing about the pool. Maxwell's point was rather that as of late D1, you had spoken with notscience conversationally, not really committed to a firm town/scumread either way, but then on D2 you immediately called notscience scum. It doesn't feel like town organically developing a scumread on notscience, it looks more like you avoided commenting on him on D1 when you didn't need to but then felt obligated to declare him scum immediately on D2 bc you knew it was a red flip if he was executed that day.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Hel

I really like maxwell's post 2093. I've been rereading through D1 and I find myself strongly agreeing with all of maxwell's points and conclusions.

[GuiltyLion]

I think a lot of the stuff I was feeling off with Umlaut was dependent on notscience being town, overall I'd say Umlaut is pretty solidly not buddies with notscience - votes him early in 524 and doubles down in 587 and 589 while pushing maxwell to give a read on notscience, he quite directly calls to execute notscience over Maki late D1 in 1256, and then reverses immediately in 1257 - I don't think scum fakes that waffley back-and-forth I think they're more likely to decide their 'stance' and commit to it. And when I challenged him on his 1257 (bc again, I was thinking town!notscience -> scum!Umlaut), he backtracked again in 1365 in a way that feels authentic as well.

also while I disagreed entirely with his NK15-notsci buddies take, the way he riffed on NK15 throughout D1 and D2 feels consistent in a genuine way, I get the sense that it was a real opinion he held rather than one he was shaping based on agenda and feedback.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not really following the logic behind Ali redflip means third scum is GL/Maxwell, nor why you think Hel is townie in general, I think Hel's interactions with notsci are notably bad and her response to Maxwell even worse. But that said I do agree that from a neutral perspective umlaut/username are v likely town so I see how you arrive at the four of us.

I'm usually bad at reading Titus but I've thought she was town all game, and my first take on her doubling/tripling down on investigating a new pool today is coming from town who's primary concern is guaranteeing another scum execution and is not worried about how scummy it looks. I'd definitely have to revisit her again if I knew there wasn't any scum in Ali/Hel but right now I think both of them are much better odds of scum than Titus so I haven't felt worried about her yet.

[GuiltyLion]

whose* damnit

[GuiltyLion]

ah based on 1.9? I see, I think that makes sense. I'm 100% fine with Ali being an execution candidate, in fact I kinda think I just now associative-logicked my way to Ali being scum because:

- umlaut/username/titus prob town
- Based on today, I kinda doubt Hel/Maxwell as S-S, there's no need to distance from each other like that really
- Ali town likely means at least one scum in {Maxwell, GL}
- I'm not scum

[GuiltyLion]

unless Datisi/Moment has another scum but I agree that seems unlikely and we should use our investigation tonight to cover that scenario anyways

[GuiltyLion]

also if Datisi town and Menalque town then Alisae was probably buddying me early D1 and I fell for it like always

[GuiltyLion]

Okay, so unless titus has a compelling reason for there being no scum on the umlaut wagon I think we can all get on board with icon choosing between (maxwell, ali) today, reinvestigating (datisi, moment, maybe nk15) then tomorrow we execute the other in (ali, maxwell) if it’s not GG and then N4 we invest GL if the game isn’t over by that point?

eh, I think the D3 plan for today is fine, but on D4 we need Ico again to decide the execution and the investigation

[GuiltyLion]

like it can still be between me/Maxwell/Ali or whoever but we can't chart a predefined course like that, Ico needs choice to veto

[GuiltyLion]

He's mostly focused on the Umlaut counterwagon to notsci, of Alisae/Maxwell/Norway/GL voters. I think it's fair to assume one scum on there if you value VCA over looking at associatives

[GuiltyLion]

This is a point where normally I'd be ~doing more~ but due to the nature of the setup I don't have a lot that I feel strongly compelled to do.

I get that we're focusing on the Umlaut wagon but does no one find my 2156 compelling? I thought that was a pretty insightful point myself! I'm a lil offended Hel didn't even see a need to reply to it!

[GuiltyLion]

I don't buy his excuses for not doing "more because of the nature of the setup"

I mean idk, I did a solid amount of scum hunting D1, proposed a pool and was pleased that Ico put two of my three in it, caught scum with one of those two. and partner hunted (badly) yesterday, got another pool with two of my three suspects in it and agree with the execution and likely pool today. There weren't really many critical competing wagons moments outside of D1 and I was more active when that was happening.

I'm not sure what else more you'd expect me to be doing, the game's on a decent course even despite not finding tea yesterday. and I've largely agreed with the momentum of the town so far. Ico as our Beloved Port Authority is keeping the harbor running smoothly, and Alisae is kind of just rolling over which makes me think it's good odds that we're right and e's scum.

[GuiltyLion]

Wait I'm confused, Moment has said they're not complying with a Datisi/Moment/Maxwell pool right, are we just pretending they didn't say that?

[GuiltyLion]

Are we decidedly flipping Maxwell first anyways? The basics of it are that I think Datisi is town but I couldn't say the same about Maxwell and I'd rather simply investigate a suspect alone than potentially be in a guilty pool with him.

this seems pretty janky

if Maxwell is scum then there's literally no harm in being in a pool with him, given the game state this town would probably execute Maxwell first on a guilTea result anyway?

this feels like survivalist logic to avoid being put in the pool more than rational thinking

[GuiltyLion]

I completely fail to understand why neither Titus nor Moment can seem to grasp why reinspecting Datisi and Moment with a new candidate is a good idea.

Also Ico - I think the point Umlaut is suggesting (and I agree ftr) is that if Moment refuses to ship as we want them to today, we can't force an inspection there, which means we resort to executing. You suggested in one of your posts that you're on board with inspecting Moment but it's not clear what you suggest instead if Moment refuses to play ball.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm considering this a moral victory even if scum guess the TD. God, I hate this mechanic.

Anyway, Titus is trying to deflect from Moment being caught, no one respond to her fishing anymore.

Oh shut up scum.

Like why post this and then argue against inspecting a pool with maxwell in it?!?!?! If you're convinced maxwell is scum then the plan works. If you're not convinced maxwell is scum then why talk to him like this? Do you all usually talk to your nullreads this way?

[GuiltyLion]

Idk I guess she said she was drinking but mehhh

Anyone resisting a pool makes me wanna go for that pool especially hard. I also don't see how she thinks Umlaut makes sense with notscience

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Moment

[GuiltyLion]

I wonder if Titus would argue against executing Moment and going with an {Alisae/Maxwell/Datisi} pool when that contains two entirely new inspects

[GuiltyLion]

idk this maybe just a Titus being Titus thing but I'm also struggling to empathize with all the concern about "we need to inspect new people to find scum by Day 5" when she seems more motivated by arguing against inspecting Moment/Datisi rather than scum hunting for who she thinks is scum. The only name she's really pushed is Umlaut who I think is like one of the

least

likely partners with notscience given he was a direct counterwagon and his associatives look pretty T-S to me

[GuiltyLion]

I'm happy with executing Alisae if Moment volunteers to be investigated

[GuiltyLion]

Has anything changed the fact that we were going to lynch Alisae? I still think it's best to lynch there.

why is Moment, the crusader against letting emotional impulses impact play and decision making, refusing to be put in a pool tonight? It boils down to this:

I'd rather simply investigate a suspect alone than potentially be in a guilty pool with him.

which is such a profoundly illogical argument that I'm struggling to understand how it comes from town here.

[GuiltyLion]

like it'd be entirely different if Moment hadn't been spewed not-TD, but there's no harm in conftowning Moment if Moment is town here and I have to think Moment can understand that.

[GuiltyLion]

reviewing Moment's ISO and I really don't think obvtown can be used to describe it... like they consistently townread notscience throughout, try to de-escalate notscience vs username as TvT, then do the same thing I was pushing on Hel for where they come out the gate voting/scumreading notscience on D2 despite having him as consistently town on D1, I feel it would have been more likely for town!Moment to suspect Datisi more there.

[GuiltyLion]

yes, and as I keep pointing out, Moment is consistently refusing to be investigated tonight

[GuiltyLion]

Titus rn

[GuiltyLion]

Inspect: Copper

[GuiltyLion]

hey gg everyone! well played by all and I had a lot of fun Thank you for modding FakeGod, the set up was unique and interesting! I think town overall played a smart strategy though I do wonder if there's a way to tinker with the setup to avoid the 'follow the PA' strat, it seems pretty optimal despite putting a lot of pressure on the PA and taking towns reads/votes out of the equation at times.

I think a lot of people played great - Ico with the clutch n1 pool and the not confirming gambit, Umlaut hiding his identity (I was so scared of rolling TD myself), kuribo catching scum early and decisively, Titus had me fooled until D3, Menalque & Maxwell as always being fun to jam with and keeping town on track with the right plays. NK15 and Moment did a good job turning around a potentially messy D1 and while I'm not sure the fakeclaim was the greatest idea in the long run it did wind up causing some useful chaos that generated a lot of info and hid the TD ultimately. Moment - sorry about championing your execution on D3, I did overstate your resistance to being investigated, I had the right read on what Titus was doing but picked the wrong associative, my fault. Norway that's two games I've misread you now, my b :[ hopefully in the future I'll be more calibrated on how to read you right. Hel while we were at odds at points this game I do always enjoy your sense of humor!

sorry you rolled scum Datisi, we'll get that mutual town win... someday...

[GuiltyLion]

I still think this setup needs a method to kill an outed PA to ensure this works more like mafia. It was fun none the less.

yah this seems like a good idea

[GuiltyLion]

dank

I say we execute notscience and put Datisi as a solo inspect

I know that what we ultimately did instead with a new pool of three was smarter/better play in general and in the long run, but can you imagine if we had gone with this lmao, my head would have grown three sizes