Martyr Mafia - Game Over

qwints · Post Post #13 (isolation #0) » Thu Jan 22, 2009 5:59 pm

Well, this one is easy.

vote: Jebus

qwints · Post Post #28 (isolation #1) » Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:14 pm

zachattack wrote:If Nietzche dies, God achieves his win condition and leaves the game. We can lynch God as long as Nietzche is still alive, but once Nietzche dies the agnostics only hope is conversion.

Why do we know that God winning = God leaving? (It makes sense, I just don't think it was explicitly stated)

Regardless, right now our goal should be to kill God as soon as possible. Right now we know that 4 (if all recruits failed) to 7 (if all recruits succeeded) people will not vote to lynch God. As early as tomorrow, it may become impossible to lynch God.

One rules questions:
1) Does the game end once a cult leader wins or do we continue til God or Nietzsche is dead?

I have a feeling that this game is going to have a lot of putting people close to a lynch and seeing who flinches. We don't have anything to lose (besides an opportunity to win right away) from anyone dying.

qwints · Post Post #71 (isolation #2) » Sat Jan 24, 2009 6:42 pm

Good point Jahudo. Why the vote for DGB zakeri?

vote: zakeri

qwints · Post Post #98 (isolation #3) » Sun Jan 25, 2009 2:59 pm

You claim scum, I vote you.

unvote; vote:
zwetschenwasser

qwints · Post Post #277 (isolation #4) » Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:19 am

ortolan wrote:um, hi, I haven't posted since Tuesday so I'm obvGod etc.

I could vote for Zakeri (although I don't even remember the post that apparently makes him scummy), or Pacman, because DGB is awesome.

Jebus is acting like stereotypical townie "omgosh zwet, don't claim GoD!!! that is anti-town" which means he's probably scum but only has a 1/7 chance of being the scum playa we actually want to lynch

but still

Vote Jebus

This

unvote, vote Jebus

qwints · Post Post #347 (isolation #5) » Wed Feb 04, 2009 5:09 pm

Thorough posts are not scummy.

unvote

qwints · Post Post #361 (isolation #6) » Fri Feb 06, 2009 8:37 am

You don't like my vote, but you don't like my unvote? That makes a lot of sense.

qwints · Post Post #473 (isolation #7) » Sun Feb 08, 2009 8:23 pm

I've got no real sense of this game besides the fact that Jebus and zwet are probably scum.

qwints · Post Post #497 (isolation #8) » Wed Feb 11, 2009 1:09 pm

EA's tunnel vision is unhelpful. There are a lot more players in the game than just Zakeri. Would God really have been the first player run up so fast?

qwints · Post Post #516 (isolation #9) » Thu Feb 12, 2009 5:41 pm

/responding to prod.

Right now, I am fairly certain that Jebus knows who god is. I'm also pretty suspicious of zwet. I'll follow up with my reasoning this weekend.

qwints · Post Post #660 (isolation #10) » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Happy birthday Jahudo!

This game has been a lot messier than some of my others so I'm giving it less attention. I'm still pretty sure that Jebus knows who god actually is, but I'm in favor of killing annoying people.

vote: zwet

qwints · Post Post #669 (isolation #11) » Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:37 pm

Jebus has constantly questioned people's cases for god whenever someone casts suspicion instead of refuting them. This indicates he's afraid of giving away too much information when adding on to these cases. Furthermore, he is too confident in his opinion of various players. I think he knows the cult leaders as well as god and is thus God.

Therefore,

unvote, vote Jebus

qwints · Post Post #685 (isolation #12) » Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:15 am

I, for one, strongly oppose the qwints wagon.

qwints · Post Post #689 (isolation #13) » Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:05 am

habit

qwints · Post Post #701 (isolation #14) » Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:27 pm

I'm going to go ahead and admit that I am culted.

qwints · Post Post #709 (isolation #15) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 6:11 am

Yes I am a recruit. Obviously I would rather die than reveal my leader as SP pointed out. Dying doesn't result in a loss but having my leader killed means I lose if I don't get culted again by the eventual winner.

Bloodmoney's question makes me think he's also in a cult. God obviously doesn't care who's in who's cult.

qwints · Post Post #721 (isolation #16) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 3:30 pm

unvote, vote dgb

I'm the Christian cult leader, lynching me doesn't do agnostics any good.

I tried to recruit Jebus last night and failed. If he isn't a cult leader, that means he's either a cult recruit or Nietzsche.

[Assuming that I am about to be lynched, I see facilitating a god win as a plus for my role.

qwints · Post Post #745 (isolation #17) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 5:02 pm

X wrote:Changing your win condition (like, against the mod's wishes) = fail.

I certainly acknowledge that I lose if I'm lynched. The only way I win is to be the last cult leader alive. But I think it's reasonable to prefer losing once (i.e. I'm lynched, but god wins) to losing twice (I'm lynched and god is killed.)

So my motivation for my claim/outing of Jebus was twofold: 1) Try something crazy to prevent my lynch and 2)Try to avoid fulfilling two losing conditions.

Agnostics should avoid lynching me (assuming they believe me) because anyone can claim CL and threaten an insta-loss to all agnostics once I'm dead. Furthermore they risk Nietzsche hitting a cult leader with his one shot ability.

The other cults, on the other hand, unequivocally want me dead because this puts them one lynch/kill away from a victory.

*I thought that an agnostic who was recruited by all 3 cults would die from the effect, but I might be misremembering that.

qwints · Post Post #746 (isolation #18) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 5:20 pm

hmm,

prior probability of Jebus being Nietzsche = 1/19
prior probability of Jebus being cult leader = 2/19
prior probability of Jebus being agnostic = 16/19

likelihood of failing to recruit Jebus given Nietzsche = 1
likelihood of failing to recruit Jebus given cult leader = 1
likelihood of failing to recruit Jebus = likelihood Jebus was recruited by other CL

Likelihood of Jebus being recruited by other CL = 1 - (% Islam didn't recruit * % Jews didn't recruit)
If random, that = 1- (18/19*18/19) = 10.25%

Prior times likelihood of Jebus(N) = 1/19
Prior times likelihood of Jebus (CL) = 2/19
Prior times likelihood of Jebus (R) = 8.6%
Total prior times likelihood = 24%

So that means
Jebus(N) = 20%
Jebus(CL) = 44%
Jebus(R) = 36%

Of course, God knows whether Jebus is or is not a cult leader, so for God it's about 60/40 that Jebus is a recruit if Jebus is not a cult leader.

qwints · Post Post #749 (isolation #19) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 6:03 pm

Here are the possible situations we are now in:

Jebus(R)
Cult A has 2 recruits including Jebus
Cult B has 0 recruits and knows that Jebus is most likely a recruit
I have no recruits

I would argue agnostics should prefer my survival to ensure a more balanced game.

Jebus (CL)
Cult Jebus has 0-1 (5:1 that it's 1) recruits
Cult B has 0-1 (5:1 that it's 1) recruits

In this situation, the agnostics leaving me alive only risks one more recruit which is not that dangerous

Jebus (N)
Game ends tonight with God's nk unless you lynch God.

qwints · Post Post #751 (isolation #20) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 7:14 pm

No, but it ends the chance of an agnostic win.

If you lynch me and Nietzsche is nk'd, then God leaves. That leaves your only chance of winning to hoping you get picked by the winning side - less than 50% b/c some won't be recruited. Furthermore, if you're lynched as an agnostic you lose.

Agnostics are in a much better situation with Nietzsche alive (as had already been discussed.)

I have a very strong feeling that ortolan is cult.

qwints · Post Post #752 (isolation #21) » Fri Feb 20, 2009 7:18 pm

If Jebus isn't nk'd, he's more likely than not to be a cult leader. Thus he can't be lynched.

Lynching Jebus is actually the correct move for agnostics. It confirms my claim and puts me in the same situation as he'd be in tomorrow, but with 1 less recruit on a potentially winning team.

unvote, vote Jebus