Godtell.ting =) wrote:Vote:zachattack
Hi.
Martyr Mafia - Game Over
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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God is most likely to die by lynching today- as the days go on it will become more and more like assassin in the palace between as the majority of players will be in cults. Although there will also be the cult vs. cult game.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ok, so the majority of us are agnostics- at this point in time you should be acting like an agnostic, even if you're not one. This also means the majority of us are sided with Nietzsche.
Thus what are you even doing looking/drawing attention to Nietzche tells to begin with?Jebus (67) wrote:I thought that the "I wouldn't be so fast to use a one-shot kill" line meant that he had a one-shot kill to not be so fast to use. I didn't see it right away, but I can see how it could be easily taken as "If I were Nietzche..."
And why is Zakeri the scummy one out of this? He called you up on obviously anti-town behaviour and apparently that's worthy of a vote?-
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Think I just realised us agnostics (;)) are consigned to the virtually impossible task of trying to lynch God day one, when there's already 7 people who know who he is and will never possibly allow him to be lynched (3 leaders, 3 recruits + God).
Thus we need eleven out of thirteen agnostic/Nietzsche votes to do us any good (because anyone else, even a cult leader doesn't really help us). Sucks.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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um, hi, I haven't posted since Tuesday so I'm obvGod etc.
I could vote for Zakeri (although I don't even remember the post that apparently makes him scummy), or Pacman, because DGB is awesome.
Jebus is acting like stereotypical townie "omgosh zwet, don't claim GoD!!! that is anti-town" which means he's probably scum but only has a 1/7 chance of being the scum playa we actually want to lynch
but still
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It specifically came across as disingenuous to me.ting (265) wrote:@orto.
Really? He's acting like a townie, so he's obviously not a townie? If you think something about Jebus' posts seems fake, fine. Otherwise, that logic as just as circular as tajo's too scummy call on zwet.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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@ting as though God would be stupid enough to draw attention to himself by claiming as the only role we actually want to lynch
And his comments like "don't be suicidal, leave or get replaced" etc. are stupid as either zwet has already ruined the game (if he is God) or he hasn't.
And this stuff about insisting someone ask to be replaced if they don't want to play properly is crap filler- it's their decision if they want to be replaced, not yours, anyway.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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No, I think he is not really town because he is giving a cliched in the extreme "townie" responsemask man (283) wrote:so orton thinks jebus is so town he is scum?
I think he is just being amazingly scummy(Not recently, back around pages 7 to 9 at estimate)
As of late he got it together and made me change my vote.
speaking of,
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Still liking the Jebus wagon
He concoted a huge attack vote post against zwet, which suggests he is sweating at the prospect of being lynched
most of this post is "explain that thought" with little real analysis. Yes zwet comes across as scummy (new), but unfortunately in this game you can't ride by on getting mislynches like that today, because we are only looking for one very specific scum playa. I think you're much more likely to be He than zwet is.
This "bussing God" discussion is stupid. It certainly couldn't be the form of a normal bus- if God dies then they lose automatically. But furthermore the cultleadershave no particular reason to dissociate themselves from God- if they get lynched then they've lost anyway so they don't care if God gets caught as a result of their flip. Perhaps their recruits might care more. I am thinking in general the cults would react tentatively towards votes on God and if they looked serious/dangerous then start to jump in by arguing against them.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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It's not the same- while God has motivation to bus the cult leaders, they have no motivation to bus him. If they straight out bus him to a lynch then they lose. If they bus him to make themselves look dissocated from him when they flip scum, then they have nothing to gain by doing this- because once they've died they've already lost anyhow- they don't care whether or not the other players can work out who God is.mask man (338) wrote:"But furthermore the cult leaders have no particular reason to dissociate themselves from God-"
Try thinking of AItP. But with the assassin having a very sucky role. And the guards being cultists in 3 different groups. and add a bunch of vanillas waiting to be recruited who for the moment want god lynched instead.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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I did already explain that even if he's one of the seven scum we only want to lynch one- God, whom I doubt he is. Plus his actions may otherwise be explained by newness anyhow. It's quite simple really.Bloodmoney (351) wrote:ortolan, post 337, note how zwet's defense is snuck in there with the implication that he would be a mislynch. If you have a scummy read of him, why do you think he'd be a mislynch, do tell?
Is this a slip? You seem to think I am playing for future recruitment (i.e. playing pro-scum) while knowing that I am not presently scum.Bloodmoney (351) wrote:All of the lurkers are either scum or playing towards an expected wincon of recruited cult: Erratus Apathos, Indigo Heron, Double A, ortolan, qwints. Quite probably more.
I need to look at that exchange between BM, MM and MK referred to in Bloodmoney's post above to see if they're possibly cult leaders/recruits/God trying to hint at lynch targets between one another.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Wow, that's four people whose votes on Jebus you "don't buy", and you haven't really argued why. You sure he's not your leader/deity? You've just said why you don't think he's being bused, that's all well and good, I myself said God wouldn't be bused. But you just ignore the possibility he is being voted for by agnostics?ting (360) wrote:I don't buy ortolan's and qwints votes on Jebus. I don't like zwet's either. DGB's vote on Jebus is the only one that seems to have an actual reason behind it, but I don't buy it. If Jebus is being bussed, then he won't be God. Besides, the cult leaders don't know each other. God doesn't know the recruits either. And I'm assuming that the recruits don't know God. Whatever his role, him being bussed can't be right.
What do others think of the Jebus wagon?
[quote="Bloodmoney (359)
Please note the formatting in the initial quote. You either don't read what you quote, or you are opting for blatant misrepping instead of actual helpful contribution. Feel free to tell me if it's the latter.[/quote]ortolan wrote:Bloodmoney wrote:All of the lurkers are(scum)either(playing towards an expected wincon of recruited cult): Erratus Apathos, Indigo Heron, Double A, ortolan, qwints. Quite probably more.or
Is this a slip? You seem to think I am playing for future recruitment (i.e. playing pro-scum) while knowing that I am not presently scum.
Well, you're right, I did misread it, it must have been in an attempt to give a coherent/charitable interpretation of what you said. So you're calling me a lurker? Do you have any proof of this? Why are lurkers more likely to be scum than those participating in the game, it's no different to any other game where lurking is almost always a null-tell? So I disagree with two aspects of your argument- firstly I don't think I've posted little enough to warrant being classed a lurker, secondly I don't see why not posting as much as others is scummy anyhow- it's probably a mistake of mine to join so many large games which eat time like no other (which might have the effect of limiting my posting ability), but I don't see it raising the probability of me being scum. I will have to read over to see if those people you nominated as lurkers actually are as well, because I just don't see it in my case.-
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That's a fair enough rationale, but as I said you haven't actually established that those people you said were lurkers actually were lurking.Bloodmoney (396) wrote:lurking is much more anti-town (agnostic) in this game, because we very likely won't have majority by tomorrow. I want to do what I can Day 1, before the power of lynching is wrested from my hands. Cult/god need only to stall and/or mislynch today, and Nietzsche has a high possibility of misfiring too; that's why I suspect all lurkers of being scum or expecting to become one.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Jebus I wouldn't be surprised if I'm not the only one who can't be bothered to read when you present so many tiny quotes and responses and so little synthesis. May I suggest a change in posting style?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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What's with Post 425 by SilverPhoenix about "rolefishing". Only one player in the whole game's role can be usefully fished by scum... (Nietzschke)
acting like a stereotypical townie does not equal acting towniemyk (431) wrote:hmm, great??? lets vote for a towny! Because he point out bad play!
I did the same, why not me?FoS ortolan
This is stupid. The setup does not accomodate you describing some players as "scummy culted" and some others as otherwise non specified scummy. If you were agnostic you'd be thinking about whether we were cult, recruits or God.myk (431) wrote:On this moment, I think zwet and maskman are culted, bloodmoney and Jebus as town, DGB as ???, orto as general scum
This is also stupid for aforementioned reasons, and as X points out in the below post.myk (431) wrote:SCUM!
people, what would a roleclaim give us? (hint: nothing).
myk is obvscum but I don't think he'd be so aggressive if he were God so that isn't particularly useful.
Oh yer hehe we're agnostics aren't weJebus (446) wrote:The further into this game we play, the more likely God is to be caught - recruits as well as the CL's lose if god dies, so it is indeed a very finely balanced setup, assuming us agnostics play competently enough to pick out recruits/CL's.
I agree, this is exactly how you'd play if you were GodJebus (451) wrote:Theory be said, I've never been one to play that way. For example, I try to play the same from one game to another (with the exception of changes in playstyle). Even in a game like this, if I were a CL/recruit/God, I'd probably do the same thing I'm doing now.
For whoever asked about Jebus' meta, I believe it was DGB and Jebus himself, I dunno I guess he acts in a kind of "innocent" way in general (not an insult). That's why I see him brandishing the holier than thou townie stick I get suspicious.
All in all very happy with my vote on him, he's more likely to be God than the other scum, mykonian.-
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Actually your play in this game matches neither your scum nor town meta as I've seen them, so that's not going to help.myk (505) wrote:You are quite eager to show that they shouldn't listen to me, because it is stupid, and I'm aggressive scum: you have seen me play as town and as mafia, and this is clearly not how I play as antitown.
unvote vote ortolan
You actually had a very insubstantial case against me, everything above this was just quoting me even though some of it wasn't even in quotation marks.
Anyhow; you've OMGUSed me (even though I wasn't voting for you)- what type of scum do you think I am???
Looking at pacman now to see what's incited the controversy.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Can someone answer my question:
Is pacman's active lurking consistent with meta or wot???Jahudo (520) wrote:@Pacman: I hope you don't think I'm giving you a free pass just because I say you're following the town meta I have on you. We need unity here.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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I was referring to the fact that I could see where DGB was coming from with her case on pacman.xofelf (567) wrote:xofelf wrote:yay! i've finally caught up. sorry it took so long(most of you with your enormously long posts...grrr) There's SOO much here. I'm going to do this piece by piece, so please bear with me.
okay there was something i noticed while i was reading through that i had a question on and that no one said much of anything about.
bolded for emphasis. What exactly are you saying there? Were you not voting her because you think she's an awesome player? Or were you saying something else there?ortolan wrote: I could vote for Zakeri (although I don't even remember the post that apparently makes him scummy), or Pacman,because DGB is awesome.
That probably isn't anything at all but it kinda stood out to me. Then again, i was reading that around midnight so that could have some bearing on my perception of it.
Honestly though, i really don't have any idea of which way to be looking. So if there's something that you want another opinion on, by all means please point it out.
Also; there is zero justification for random-voting at this stage in the game, al_kohaulec. Tell us who you find scummy, at least.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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The first case is a fine outcome. The second is bad for every one of us (agnostics) who doesn't get recruited tonight. However I can't argue with the logic, claiming cult membership would be a logical move for a reasonably intelligent cult leader or God. Fuckit.X (714) wrote: At best we've won. At worst we didn't get rid of an Agnostic.
Unvote
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I just re-read mostly the posts after my latest post to get a feel for whether qwints is telling the truth in his latest claim or not. Just as he made up that he was recruit initially, he may also be fabricating his latest cult leader claim.
660 was particularly scummy- voting a "useless" player, who clearly isn't God, and on the back of his lurking to boot.
Agreed that Bloodmoney looks culty for 704 also.
Basically qwints needs to be hammered immediately before day ends.
He's either cult leader or God. If he's God we win. If he's cult leader and telling the truth then tomorrow we will have 18 players total- 2 cult leaders, maximum of 4 cult recruits, and God. 7/18. Thus agnostics will still have a majority. Thus we can still God-hunt tomorrow. Hammer him immediately please, the fact he hasn't had more votes pile on him by now increases the chance he's actually God.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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And also I fully acknowledge that hammering a cult leader not only increases agnostics' chances of winning, but all the other factions apart from qwints' also. But this is good for everyone except qwints.
Hammer.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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I honestly feel the fact qwints hasn't garnered votes at a furious pace indicates he may still be God. If qwints is telling the truth, then *all* the other factions apart from his own have reason to vote him, so I'm suspicious of everyone not jumping on him even quicker.
The fact that others can WIFOM us by claiming cult leader is the least of our worries- it's not like this game was ever going to be smooth-sailing for any faction.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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yer except
1) you might be lying
2) Jebus might be Nietzsche
3) he might have been targeted by another cult and recruited to the third, hence your recruit attempt failing
4) you are essentially asking us to reward your bad play in getting caught out as a cult leader by not lynching you
someone hammer him, wowCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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might I also add;
There are two things you might be lying about- being a cult leader rather than God and having targeted Jebus.
Secondly, the only thing voting Jebus will accomplish at this stage is a likely no-lynch, as there is no way you're going to get a majority in this time. Thus you want us basically to not use our lynch today, which is far more likely to fuck over agnostics as we will then be in the minority or around even numbers with cult day two (which makes it impossible to lynch God).Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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No, I mean, if, mysteriously, no-one turns up to hammer, I suspect it's because none of the culties are on his wagon because he is indeed God. That's why it's wierd that the votes haven't piled on by now, because if he isn't lying about being a cult leader, everyone should want to get rid of him regardless of their faction.X (756) wrote:Yes, someone hammer. No, don't waste the town's one-shot kill on qwints. Unless Nietzsche is absolutely certain that he's found God earlier, he should not use it because if he's wrong, losing the Agnostic majority = losing the game.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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no christian recruit. I highly doubt qwints was lying about being unsuccessful in recruiting night one, but even if he was the "christian" part is defunct- the recruit would have lost their win condition and is "praying" for recruitment. Also, the fact God didn't night-kill Jebus last night (i.e. because he already knows he's not Nietzsche despite qwints tipping him off) means he's pretty much guaranteed to be a cult leader. I'm pretty awesome for latching onto his scumminess earlier, aren't I. This is good as it indicates very low chances of lynching a cult leader if we attack someone else.mask man (782) wrote:1 gawd
1 jew leader
2 jew recruits
1 islam leader
2 islam recruits
1 christian recruit (haha!)
Also, Jahudo, I already explained why cult leaders busing God (not the other way round, though) makes no sense. If the cult leader ever dies they've lost anyway, plus if they get God lynched by busing them they've lost. So no, they have no reason to bus God.
I might have a look at Jebus' posts to see if he went out of his way to defend anyone in common with qwints.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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His cult leader claim changed the dynamics entirely. It made his lynch far, far more desirable, to everyone but him. If I was culted killing a recruit would have been quite useful to me, also. Plus him revealing he had initially lied about his claim increased the likelihood he was actually lying at a further level, and was in fact God.ting =) (798) wrote:Out of all the people who just hopped though, he clearly tried to push the case - but not till after qwints' CL claim. Obviously, agnostics have a lot of reason to want to kill a CL, but I could see him as a rival CL. The fact that his vote was last minute (L-1, and less than 24 hours from lynch) also makes me think he could be God who realized there was no way to save his CL already. Of course; with deadline approaching, I could also see a possibility of agnostic who just didn't want a no lynch, but I don't think so.
I think the likelihood that qwints was lying and Jebus is God is actually very low- if he was successful in getting Jebus (God) lynched instead of him he would lost anyway.
Why?Bloodmoney (812) wrote:
No. It more likely means that qwints was trying to fool us and Jebus is God.ortolan wrote:Also, the fact God didn't night-kill Jebus last night (i.e. because he already knows he's not Nietzsche despite qwints tipping him off) means he's pretty much guaranteed to be a cult leader.
What about the possibility he's a cult leader and we will lose by doing so?DGB (813) wrote:I'm all for lynching Jebus. He was distanced from by a lot of people yesterday.-
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Time may or may not prove this statement true. What do you think of Zakeri, zwet?zwet (976) wrote:ortolan's posting seems to have rapidly degenerated.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Stop being scummy please. If we lynch another cult leader we insta-lose. Well I do. Not sure about you.DGB (999) wrote:Misrwp. But finding God is a long shot. CL's are easier. Besides how can we distinguish god-scum from CL-scum?
We've already worked out that Jebus is virtually guaranteed to be a cult leader. Your insistence on attacking him also pretty much guarantees you are either the leader or a recruit of the other remaining cult.DGB (1031) wrote:I may be confusing you with Jebus.
Now rewinding...
I have no qualms with either of these conclusions. Funny thing is I still think you're God. God of course knows who his cult leaders are and would be perfectly fine with announcing suspicion of them.Zakeri (950) wrote:I do. I've been looking back over the phase change and what happened before it.
It's practically undeniable to me that Jebus is a cult leader based on what happened during phase change, and how Quints reacted towards him not being recruited. I don't think he's either God or a Cult leader because God didn't hit him, and I think he's a Cult Leader because Quintz wouldn't venge-out God just because he was being lynched.
DGB is also very noticable for placing her vote on someone other than who she believed was god. She voted, unvoted, and revoted Jebus while fingering others, even after listing Jebus blatantly as "Not God". It's very likely the DGB is a cult leader and has found Jebus to be another cult leader. It's also very possible if Jebus was Recruited that DGB was in fact the other Cult Leader that Recruited him, thus leading him to join the other cult leader.
I'll have to take another look back to see who's god from all of this, but it might lead to Pacman, who DGB seems to have been distancing.Especiallyin this context where both God and the town are actively trying to avoid lynching cult leaders anyhow (God needs to kill Nietzsche to win, Town needs to kill God to win- either has to happen before we kill a second cult leader or else the other cult wins). Plus it serves your goal of flying under the radar until you can kill Nietzsche very, very well.
Oh, looking for people who DGB has distanced from sounds just dandy.Zakeri (956) wrote:I'm leaning towards Pacman as god, due to blatant distancing from DGB.
DGB was keen to get her vote off and onto Jahudo though, who to me looks incredibly obv-town:DGB (935) wrote:
Gah! I hate, HATE mind readers.ortolan wrote:I have just determined that Zakeri is the lynch for today.
Vote: Zakeri
You know you want to.
unvote, vote: Zakeri
Pacman is too obvious and easy a target (lurking, lacking contributions etc.) and I think Zakeri was taking advantage.DGB (1028) wrote:Again I'm willing to lynch any of the aborted day 1 wagons.
unvote, vote: Jahudo
I am calling out Zakeri as God now. Agnostics please vote for him, don't wait until tomorrow by which time I may be culted and trying my best to prevent his lynch. Also if you pretty much notice all his posts today solely relate to God's thought process. There's nothing to indicate he isn't God.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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The linked game is not a large game (thus making it more likely independently he would have mentioned his scumbuddy by name in his first post due to fewer players being able-to-be-mentioned). This makes your sample of one even less valid.Adel (1089) wrote:I have a player specific meta against qwints now: he has a scumtell. He, like many players before they learn better, mentions his scum buddy by name in his first post.
This scumtell is quite common for newer players, and is mostly useful in large games where the odds of a person typing another person's name are lower.
link to him naming his scumpartner with one other player in his first post where he names a name
Here you implicitly imply/acknowledge Jebus is a cult leader rather than God- "those interested in figuring out who Jebus recruited night 0" despite concluding he is in fact God.Adel (1089) wrote:God did not kill Jebus last night. That means that Jebus is not Nietzsche, nor is he a Xian recruit. (God would've killed him just to make sure.) Later in the game anyone who is interested in figuring out who Jebus recruited night 0 can look though his past games and see what other player in this game demonstrated proficiency in his previous games. That will be who he recruited if he is a CR. (probably one of Jahudo, tajo, packman, or Silver)
You haven't justified this.Adel (1089) wrote:I think that it is much more likely that zakeri is being set up by Jahudo or Jebus.
From a theory perspective, what did qwints have to gain by WIFOMING us into choosing to lynch him or God? He would lose if either lynch went through.Adel (1089) wrote: There is a real chance that qwint naming Jebus as unrecruitable was a wifom gambit.. he had nothing to lose at that point.
Um, if he took into account that Jebus would be God he had to assume he was lying about trying to recruit Jebus (because he, as a cult leader, knows who God is and would not try to recruit them). So this point isn't valid.qwints (1089) wrote:he never mentioned the possibility that Jebus was god. That was his false premise.Note how complete his maths are in subsequent posts. He could not be unaware of the possibility that Jebus was god. He had to keep god alive, but he also had to keep himself alive. Naming Jebus as unrecruitable would keep N. from vigging god.
So you're saying the cult players are likely to attack the other cult players e.g. Jebus.Adel (1091) wrote:4. Players with hidden information (scum) are much more likely to name each other.
5. All of my chief scum suspects named Jebus multiple times.
Why? I already went into great detail on why Jebus is a cult leader. By extension DGB pushing for his lynch means she is probably of the other cult.X (1095) wrote:
I take your premises ("DGB-cult and Jebus-OBVCULT") with significant doubt.ortolan wrote:um the fact DGB-cult and Jebus-OBVCULT are on mykonian's wagon is enough reason to pile off it in droves.
Please vote Zakeri and I'll give you candy.
I don't even know why mykonian was ever being voted. Can someone give me a summary of the supposed case against him?X (1095) wrote:And you're eliminating mykonian based on...
It's true. The likelihood of Jebus being a cult leader and us insta-losing by lynching him is still very, very, very high. I am also not inclined to believe it was a gambit by qwints to name God because firstly that would be 100% pointless for him achieving his win condition and secondly I probably would have expected to see at least some outrage, however muted, subtle or concealed from another cult player at qwints trying to "get God lynched" like that, but I didn't pick up on any.Jahudo (1096) wrote:And if Jebus is a CL we don't want to lynch him. I think it's a good bet he is because I still think he was asking god to kill someone he thought was Neitsche.-
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http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9816 Assassin in the Hospital
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9752 Serum and Steel
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10023 Carbon 14
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0 Crush Mafia
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9756 Carbon 14 (different one)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9768 Night Watch
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9419 Kingdom (replaced in)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9865 RealTime mafia
There honestly might be more I didn't post/can't remember. I'm not sure.-
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But I fear all you could conclude from these games is that I am crap as town and good as scum whereas I consider my town play has improved substantially since a lot of them (I say this because you have specifically commented on the fact I won as scum in one of the games).Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Of course the other problem with this theory anyhow is that Jebus not being God is perfectly compatible with your theory of qwints. He mayAdel (1125) wrote:
the small sample size problem is always present in mafia. My method of scumhunting always relies upon small shifts in probability.ortolan wrote:
The linked game is not a large game (thus making it more likely independently he would have mentioned his scumbuddy by name in his first post due to fewer players being able-to-be-mentioned). This makes your sample of one even less valid.Adel (1089) wrote:I have a player specific meta against qwints now: he has a scumtell. He, like many players before they learn better, mentions his scum buddy by name in his first post.
This scumtell is quite common for newer players, and is mostly useful in large games where the odds of a person typing another person's name are lower.
link to him naming his scumpartner with one other player in his first post where he names a name
1) Have genuinely recruited Jebus and was just lying about not having recruited him. In which case he is naming his scumbuddy (highly unlikely).
or
2) Have tried to but not been successful in recruiting Jebus. He knows he is a form of scum, like himself, thus he votes him, naming something like his "scumbuddy" (reasonably likely).
Of course if your "naming scumbuddy" theory isn't correct (also reasonably likely), then in the case of the second point (the first is still highly unlikely), it's very, very plausible he indeed tried to recruit Jebus, failed, knows he's an enemy cult or Nietzsche and thus wanted to vote/lynch/kill him, irrespective of whether he usually vote scumbuddies in his first post. So you are flawed in that your determination of his meta is poorly founded, plus even if you are correct he may still have been complying with your meta on him if Jebus isn't God.
You'll need more than this, sorry. You can't fall back on "intuition" when you're talking about doing something which looks likely to lose us the game.Adel (1125) wrote:to me it feels like they are. It is hard to justify intuition with honesty. If you like I can do a PBPA and rationalize it (and make it sound good) but the source of my conclusion was intuition.
He openly acknowledged his desire to protect God. He might be a unique (and special) player but I have to assume cult leaders would play like I would i.e. being indifferent to whether they or God were lynched, because they lose either way.Adel (1125) wrote:he was going for his "secondary win" of god not dying even if he does. It is a reflex action of scum... even though the win conditions in this game are different, the instinct to distance from his scummate remained.
Big, big assumption. I've made mistakes like that when I forgot take into account whether I'm calculating probability from someone's perspective or in general like that before.Adel (1125) wrote:there were 20 players in the game. 20-1 = 19. If he was taking his knowledge of who god is into account, the base number would've been 18 instead of 19. The point is valid.
That may be true, but it's not relevant to the point I was making. Change to "So you're saying the cult players are likely toAdel (1125) wrote:
"name" means typing his name into a post. I did not say they attacked him.
So you're saying the cult players are likely to attack the other cult players e.g. Jebus.Adel (1091) wrote:4. Players with hidden information (scum) are much more likely to name each other.
5. All of my chief scum suspects named Jebus multiple times.namethe other cult players e.g. Jebus." It doesn't mean Jebus isGod
You possibly have an argument for saying that lynching qwints was wrong inAdel (1125) wrote:no, you wouldn't see a damn thing because they wouldn't be sure how to respond. Then they would quickly lynch qwints, exactly what happened. qwints was absolutely correct that the optimal move for agnostics was to lynch Jebus. Notice how that didn't happen.retrospectbut at the time we definitely did not know that qwints was a cult leader rather than God, and I for one thought there was a decent chance of it considering he'd already lied once about the full extent of his scumminess.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Adel and also please reply to my latest little number and tell us why you why you're so happy to lynch someone, who, is in all probability, a cult leaderCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Haha, no, this could not be one iota further from the truth (I have argued that general behavioural tells [rather than, for example, testing hypotheses about scum] are highly retarded in previous games and usually a justification scum give). I was insuring myself against you yourself using such a poor application of meta, which I anticipated by you mentioning 4 of my games and commenting on only one "ortolan survives as scum", which is very out of place and furthermore meaningless unless you were doing something very simplistic like simply gathering my win ratio as scum/town. The bare fact you were compiling my meta when I was not under suspicion alone was out of place, actually.Adel (1148) wrote:if you don't believe that developing a player specific meta has utility, then I doubt that your town play has improved much. You probably still believe in "universal scumtells" like that "errors in logic" = scuminess.
Ok. The problem is, even if your intuition is flawless, and I would have no idea not having played with you before, there is no reason to think you are not simply a player of the other cult trying to secure a win.Adel (1150) wrote:have fun trying to tell me, or anyone else on the internets, what to do. I was honest, and I certainly can produce the bullshit that you seem to be looking for, but I feel that would waste everyone's time. I've spent thousands of hours playing mafia over the last two years, and I've done a lot of rigorous research. That is the kind of experience that builds good intuition.
Hey, I think you're misquoting me here. I exaggerated when I said my town record was "terrible" (self-deprecating and all), but thus far I have proven myself better as scum. And the reason I was unpleased with my town play is not due to failure to catch scum but because I often get mis-lynched when town. Ironically this isn't necessarily my fault, and may be due to others' poor application of "behavioural tells" which we both know are crappy and which you, ironically, assumed I used.Adel (1150) wrote:continue assuming that other players play as scum as your do, and your town win record will continue being horrible. I started off being a terrible town player, but look at my last 10 or 15 or 20 games as town.
What does this mean?Adel (1150) wrote:do you have something better with your expert scumhunting skills?
You said "scum are likely to mention one another by name". Cult leaders (if the other cult leaders figure out who they are) will then do this to each other, as well as God, as well as their recruits, assuming this tell is even valid. So why does Jebus have to be God?Adel (1150) wrote:please read my posts again, and try to think more clearly this time.
I was an agnostic on day 1 (still am). I think I was pretty open about this, which you would have seen if you'd read properly, but one could not deny the possibility of being recruited night 1. Thus, as an agnostic, the best move was to lynch the person with the highest chance of being God (and lynching qwints even if he was CL was still pretty good)- if I succeeded, I won, if I failed I might be a recruit the next day. It's like you assume I was just completely oblivious and didn't think this through fully to begin with but unfortunately you're incorrect.Adel (1150) wrote:this was a test. if you were thinking intelligently about this game you would point out that we would be in the exact same situation if we lynched Jebus and he was a CR... but if he was not a CR and was revealed as being cult recruit then we would absolutely know that qwints was a CR and not god.
And why would this be more useful on a day 2 with a potential 10 scum players out of 18 (if Jebus wasn't a cult leader)? It's you that's not thinking things through.Adel (1150) wrote:but if he was not a CR and was revealed as being cult recruit then we would absolutely know that qwints was a CR and not god.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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You cannot be serious. So you think the likelihood that qwints was actually telling the truth about Jebus is less than 1/18?Adel (1155) wrote:than a CR (less than 1/18 chance).
You are pretty much throwing my suspicion of you back at me, but mine had more basis to begin with.Adel (1155) wrote:it should be clear by now that ortolan was recruited last night, and is trying to prevent god from being lynched.
Adel is gambiting cult trying to lynch opposing CL to win, attempting scum gambit of "act so arrogantly it must beobviousI'm correct"Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Again, I've come under fire for using sparse, gut style posting before so just because a lone wolf disapproves of my present style will not make me change.Adel (1162) wrote:fyi, sadly, ortolan is consistent in making spammy wall of words posts as both town and scum. Hopefully he will learn (for when he is town) that typing long posts like that decreases the signal:noise ratio, makes it harder for other townies to follow and keep up with the game, and acts to suppress total player activity. Comparative scumhunting gets much easier when player contributions are closer to even.
Again I aspire for some sort of consensus:
Adel, your meta-ing ability may be brilliant but that doesn't change the fact you may be trying to use whatever reputation you have to manipulate town into lynching a CL, Jebus, when you are of the other cult. The fact you ignored that possibility in your case on Jebus and subsequent replies to me doesn't sit well with me. Is there any reason why we should believe your opinion on Jebus is genuine?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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When I know I can no longer get mislynched by morons for stating gut without my reasons, I will play like you do. You probably get away with it because everyone considers you a well-known player who can do what they like. Reputation determines a huge amount of the game.Adel (1168) wrote:a "lone wolf" with two scummies for 2008, fyi "professor mafia" and "best performance by an individual".
you might want to consider changing.
See, DGB assumes I am in the wrong although we are pretty much on opposite but pretty much by definition equal sides of the WIFOM-wagon (in fact I would say my position is better supported but I guess that's to be expected). I claim it is unlikely qwints would have bused God so heavily, you claim he would have. You say I am scum trying to throw town off the scent of God, I say you are cult trying to get the other cult lynched to win.
The thing is I don't see how you could legitimately be so sure of the case of Jebus. You may be right, of course, but a good townie would be apprehensive about doing something so risky methinks.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Why the repeated attack for this? We don't all have the luxury of reputation.Adel (1172) wrote:ortolan isn't seriously considering my case, obviously, and is just trying to punch holes in it. I expect another wall of words from him shortly.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Proof your meta-ing ability is imperfect (or you are scum).Adel (1176) wrote:ortlan was recruited last night. He has learned how to appear townie enough to be reliably targeted by scum.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Just to fully refute your meta-gathering process, all 3 of those games I was night-killed had extremely special circumstances:
in 701 I was a confirmed mason (claimed day one due to poor play)
Carbon 14 I was actually targeted by scum for a night-kill because I was the most scummy and they were trying a gambit where one scum would act scummy, the other would bus them and use the townie points to try to win (didn't work)- you can see them say this at the end of the game.
in Night Watch (although I played well as town that game imo) I got killed because the hider said he would hide behind me and WIFOM'ed scum into night-killing me thus confirming who the last scum was (I believe).
It is cool from reading your wiki page that you actually invented several of those setups, but I must say I see no evidence your meta-ing is effective based on what you determined of me.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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