Martyr Mafia - Game Over

[Adel]

hey kiddies, how is everyone?

[Adel]

so who has been recruited so far?

[Adel]

ok.

unvote, vote: Zakeri

[Adel]

@pacman: did you intend to vote for Zakeri? It seems like you did, but others may miss your vote because of how much bold text you used.

[Adel]

Zakeri needs more votes at this point for them to be useful

QFT.

there are almost 10 people not voting.

more votes please, even if they aren't on Zakeri -- it is important for people to vote.

[Adel]

EBWOQ

Zakeri needs more votes at this point for them to be useful

QFT.

there are 6 people not voting.

more votes please, even if they aren't on Zakeri -- it is important for people to vote.

[Adel]

I don't know what to think of DGB anymore. Her strategy makes sense for a cult recruit but when half the town is lurking she could be anything just trying to keep us active. Zwet too, except he's def. agnostic.

when ever I am scum in a game that DGB my tactic is to keep her alive as long as possible.

@Adel: Have you read all of day 1? What do you think of it and people related to qwints?

nope. I haven't actually read anything prior to when I replaced in.

[Adel]

I am reading, thank you very much, just not day 1.

[Adel]

I admit that I'm getting bored with mafia -- it is too easy. I am ready to break this game now.

~~~~

I have a player specific meta against qwints now: he has a scumtell. He, like many players before they learn better, mentions his scum buddy by name in his first post.
This scumtell is quite common for newer players, and is mostly useful in large games where the odds of a person typing another person's name are lower.

link to him naming his scumpartner with one other player in his first post where he names a name

he is some data:

0: vote: Jebus -- 5
2: Good point Jahudo --2
2: vote: zakeri -- 5
3: vote: zwetschenwasser -- 5
4: ortolan wrote: --1
4: vote Jebus --5
6:

replies to ting =) without mentioning ting

-- 1
7: Jebus and zwet are probably scum -- 2 each
8: EA's tunnel vision is unhelpful. -- 2
8: There are a lot more players in the game than just Zakeri. -- 2
10: Happy birthday Jahudo! -- 2
10: Jebus knows who god actually is -- 2
10: vote: zwet --5
11: Jebus has constantly questioned people's cases for god -- 2
11: vote Jebus -- 5
13:

replies to Jahudo without mentioning Jahudo

--1
[/quote]
I stopped tracking when he claimed Xian recruiter.

question: did anyone else have a birthday on a day that qwint posted on?

Jebus: 5+5+2+2+2+5 -> 21/49

zwet: 5+2+5 -> 12/28 -> 43%
zakeri: 5+2 -> 7/28 -> 25%
Jahudo: 2+2+1 -> 5/28 -> 18%
EA: 2 -> 2/28 -> 7%
ortolan: 1 -> 1/28 -> 4%
ting: 1 -> 1/28 -> 4%
(percentages do not add up to 100 due to rounding)

based on the psychological tell of qwint, these are my estimations of qwint having hidden information about each player. I removed Jebus from the list because we know that he had hidden information about Jebus. I think that the hidden information he had was not the hidden information that he stated though.



~~~
God did not kill Jebus last night. That means that Jebus is not Nietzsche, nor is he a Xian recruit. (God would've killed him just to make sure.) Later in the game anyone who is interested in figuring out who Jebus recruited night 0 can look though his past games and see what other player in this game demonstrated proficiency in his previous games. That will be who he recruited if he is a CR. (probably one of Jahudo, tajo, packman, or Silver)

God also would not kill himself.
~~~

the most important posts in the game:

Vote: Jebus

because he is clearly the Muslim or Jewish cult leader.

Vote: DGB

obvscum

So wait, what should we be voting for as scum?

Where to go. We could try finding the cult leaders, which would leave only agnostics. We also have to get rid of god, as our win condition says, though that may be hard, as he is basically an SK - he only cares about killing his target, and he's got no partners, thus much less chance of making scum slip-ups.

If we kill the cult leaders, this may be a sort of indirect way of killing God - He knows who the cult leaders are, it may help us in the finding of god.

I'm still unsure of what direction we should take.

Vote: Populartajo

, anyway, for making me think too much. (Z didn't really have much to do with it, I just happened to quote him.)

~~~

EA played well in this game. I did a deep meta on him about six months ago, and he has really improved. There is a real chance that zakeri NK'd him in self-defense.

I think that it is much more likely that zakeri is being set up by Jahudo or Jebus.

~~~

1 out of (Jebus,zwet,zakeri,Jahudo) is god. There is a real chance that qwint naming Jebus as unrecruitable was a wifom gambit.. he had nothing to lose at that point.

Frankly, I think we will have to lynch Jebus at some point. My only chance to win as an agnostic is to lynch him today.

unvote, vote: Jebus

I am prime recruitment bait, so this is the only honest day you can count on getting out of me, and my intuition is screaming that qwint tried a gambit... he doubled down by outing Jebus as unrecruitable...

unvote, vote dgb

I'm the Christian cult leader, lynching me doesn't do agnostics any good.

I tried to recruit Jebus last night and failed. If he isn't a cult leader, that means he's either a cult recruit or Nietzsche.

[Assuming that I am about to be lynched, I see facilitating a god win as a plus for my role.

he never mentioned the possibility that Jebus was god. That was his false premise.Note how complete his maths are in subsequent posts. He could not be unaware of the possibility that Jebus was god. He had to keep god alive, but he also had to keep himself alive. Naming Jebus as unrecruitable would keep N. from vigging god.

unvote, vote: Jebus

[Adel]

here is DGB in a nutshell: she plays mafia to fuck with people.

She prefers to be scum because then she can really fuck with people. She doesn't care if she wins when she is town. Read 4 or 5 games where she is town and 3 where she is scum. I find her presence in a game to be useful when I am town regardless of her alignment since I am familiar with her past games -- she gets lots of reactions out of people, and sometimes her intuition is good.

[Adel]

the key to this setup is as follows:
1. cult games are rare, and the players in this game are likely to be unfamilar with the defining characteristics of cult games
2. CR and God are likely to try to appear as pro-town as possible.
3. Townies are likely to lurk since they don't know when or if they will get recruited.
4. Players with hidden information (scum) are much more likely to name each other.
5. All of my chief scum suspects named Jebus multiple times.

[Adel]

The only thing that is weird, is the activity that was more often around Jebus...

what do you mean by this. Now is not the time for you to type short posts. Use more words. Explain yourself using specifics.

[Adel]

I have a player specific meta against qwints now: he has a scumtell. He, like many players before they learn better, mentions his scum buddy by name in his first post.
This scumtell is quite common for newer players, and is mostly useful in large games where the odds of a person typing another person's name are lower.

link to him naming his scumpartner with one other player in his first post where he names a name

unvote, vote: Jebus

It looks like in that case he labeled one of his buddies as scum but only devotes 1 sentence to that, then has a couple paragraphs where he suspects half the town. If that thinktank guy died would qwints have died? Because I think distancing is different when it involves cults and lovers.

And if Jebus is a CL we don't want to lynch him. I think it's a good bet he is because I still think he was asking god to kill someone he thought was Neitsche.

Why do I get two points for him saying happy birthday? I think as a fluff post that's a null tell.

It wouldn't be different -- it is a psychological tell. I have played in three previous large cult games, and I am the Lover's mechanic expert. Look at my wiki page and observe my flawless record in Lovers and Polygamist games.

Why did I eliminate mykonian?
He is getting run up becuase the cults ar using his hammer as an excuse to lynch him, obviously.

Jebus wouldn't run God to lynch-1, obviously.

[Adel]

I don't understand her point distribution.

naming a person and not naming a person are decisions. With 20 players in the game, each player will not name all of the players. I've observed, over countless games, that newer players (sub 2000 non spam game posts) almost always name the person they have hidden information (investigation results, scum buddy, night move target, mason partner, ect), even in large games. The numbers are arbitary, weighted by how valuable I think each one is in identifying who the person has hidden information on.

[Adel]

Im sorry.
Come back post in some hours. Prob tomorrow.

I think you are town, and I need support on my Jebus wagon.


Please vote with me.

[Adel]

Cult would want

use

us

to see Jebus as CL so they won't get lynched, which is why many people have came to Jebus' aid early today.

This is it in a nutshell, but I fixed a minor typo.

to our lurkers:

you are town. I get that. You are unsure if you are going to end up recruited, so you are unsure about how much time you want to invest in this game. It is easy to make that decision. I understand. Look at the people who are on the mykonian wagon, and DGB who just voted off of the wagon. Can you identify people who are have been very critical of each other? Cult want to kill the other CR, and want to save god. My theory holds that the people on the mykonian wagon are almost all cult (possibly including Silver Phoenix) -- they know who God is.

[Adel]

A question specifically for X: if Nietzsche killed, what happens to god? How can you fulfill your win condition once Nietzsche is dead?

[Adel]

There's so much wifom in this it's ridiculous.

Voting for cult leaderish people is a culttell

Can you say WIFOM?

mykonian is not god, mykonian has too many votes to be god.

This can become circular waaaaaay too fast.

[Adel]

can you say something besides "WIFOM" please?

[Adel]

I have a player specific meta against qwints now: he has a scumtell. He, like many players before they learn better, mentions his scum buddy by name in his first post.
This scumtell is quite common for newer players, and is mostly useful in large games where the odds of a person typing another person's name are lower.

link to him naming his scumpartner with one other player in his first post where he names a name

The linked game is not a large game (thus making it more likely independently he would have mentioned his scumbuddy by name in his first post due to fewer players being able-to-be-mentioned). This makes your sample of one even less valid.

the small sample size problem is always present in mafia. My method of scumhunting always relies upon small shifts in probability.

God did not kill Jebus last night. That means that Jebus is not Nietzsche, nor is he a Xian recruit. (God would've killed him just to make sure.) Later in the game anyone who is interested in figuring out who Jebus recruited night 0 can look though his past games and see what other player in this game demonstrated proficiency in his previous games. That will be who he recruited if he is a CR. (probably one of Jahudo, tajo, packman, or Silver)

Here you implicitly imply/acknowledge Jebus is a cult leader rather than God- "those interested in figuring out who Jebus recruited night 0" despite concluding he is in fact God.

I started my writing my analysis while sharing the assumption that Jebus was probably a CR. I concluded later that he is probably god.

I think that it is much more likely that zakeri is being set up by Jahudo or Jebus.

You haven't justified this.

to me it feels like they are. It is hard to justify intuition with honesty. If you like I can do a PBPA and rationalize it (and make it sound good) but the source of my conclusion was intuition.

There is a real chance that qwint naming Jebus as unrecruitable was a wifom gambit.. he had nothing to lose at that point.

From a theory perspective, what did qwints have to gain by WIFOMING us into choosing to lynch him or God? He would lose if either lynch went through.

he was going for his "secondary win" of god not dying even if he does. It is a reflex action of scum... even though the win conditions in this game are different, the instinct to distance from his scummate remained.

he never mentioned the possibility that Jebus was god. That was his false premise.Note how complete his maths are in subsequent posts. He could not be unaware of the possibility that Jebus was god. He had to keep god alive, but he also had to keep himself alive. Naming Jebus as unrecruitable would keep N. from vigging god.

Um, if he took into account that Jebus would be God he had to assume he was lying about trying to recruit Jebus (because he, as a cult leader, knows who God is and would not try to recruit them). So this point isn't valid.

prior probability of Jebus being Nietzsche = 1/19
prior probability of Jebus being cult leader = 2/19
prior probability of Jebus being agnostic = 16/19

there were 20 players in the game. 20-1 = 19. If he was taking his knowledge of who god is into account, the base number would've been 18 instead of 19. The point is valid.

4. Players with hidden information (scum) are much more likely to name each other.
5. All of my chief scum suspects named Jebus multiple times.

So you're saying the cult players are likely to attack the other cult players e.g. Jebus.

"name" means typing his name into a post. I did not say they attacked him.

And if Jebus is a CL we don't want to lynch him. I think it's a good bet he is because I still think he was asking god to kill someone he thought was Neitsche.

It's true. The likelihood of Jebus being a cult leader and us insta-losing by lynching him is still very, very, very high. I am also not inclined to believe it was a gambit by qwints to name God because firstly that would be 100% pointless for him achieving his win condition and secondly I probably would have expected to see at least some outrage, however muted, subtle or concealed from another cult player at qwints trying to "get God lynched" like that, but I didn't pick up on any.

no, you wouldn't see a damn thing because they wouldn't be sure how to respond. Then they would quickly lynch qwints, exactly what happened. qwints was absolutely correct that the optimal move for agnostics was to lynch Jebus. Notice how that didn't happen.

[Adel]

ortlan:

which of your games (completed within the last 9 months) are missing from this list?

Mini #717 - Alpha Centauri Smalltown (Game Over!) http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
Mini #704: Hunchback of Notre Dame, Game Over http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0 (ort survived as scum)
Mini 711: Thursday Next: LiaGB Mafia - ABANDONED!
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... highlight=
Mini 701 - That's a Wrap! (Game Over)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... highlight=

[Adel]

thanks. If you remember more later, please let me know. My wiki page has mine, expect I think this game isn't on there, and mini 650 ended (I won as scum).

[Adel]

But I fear all you could conclude from these games is that I am crap as town and good as scum whereas I consider my town play has improved substantially since a lot of them (I say this because you have specifically commented on the fact I won as scum in one of the games).

it is hard to take you seriously as a player after reading this post. I'll respond to your latest wall of words when I've finished laughing... probably in about 14 hours.

[Adel]

Adel, are you going to respond to my earlier post?

post number?

[Adel]

someone shouting "WIFOM" is not an excuse to stop thinking. Once you learn to work through that shit, and high win % will be yours.

[Adel]

A question specifically for X: if Nietzsche killed, what happens to god? How can you fulfill your win condition once Nietzsche is dead?

Odd question. I assume you mean if Nietzsche is killed...God leaves the game. It's impossible to fulfill my win condition at that point. However, it's possible to win after that point by getting recruited - i.e., getting my win condition changed.

Why do you ask? And why me?

I was testing you for an interesting reaction or blunder.

[Adel]

But I fear all you could conclude from these games is that I am crap as town and good as scum whereas I consider my town play has improved substantially since a lot of them (I say this because you have specifically commented on the fact I won as scum in one of the games).

if you don't believe that developing a player specific meta has utility, then I doubt that your town play has improved much. You probably still believe in "universal scumtells" like that "errors in logic" = scuminess.

[Adel]

^^ ???

Just calling it as I see it. Meta'ing me for this game would be stupid as I am obviously town anyhow.

lol.

[Adel]

I have a player specific meta against qwints now: he has a scumtell. He, like many players before they learn better, mentions his scum buddy by name in his first post.
This scumtell is quite common for newer players, and is mostly useful in large games where the odds of a person typing another person's name are lower.

link to him naming his scumpartner with one other player in his first post where he names a name

The linked game is not a large game (thus making it more likely independently he would have mentioned his scumbuddy by name in his first post due to fewer players being able-to-be-mentioned). This makes your sample of one even less valid.

the small sample size problem is always present in mafia. My method of scumhunting always relies upon small shifts in probability.

Of course the other problem with this theory anyhow is that Jebus not being God is perfectly compatible with your theory of qwints. He may

1) Have genuinely recruited Jebus and was just lying about not having recruited him. In which case he is naming his scumbuddy (highly unlikely).

or

2) Have tried to but not been successful in recruiting Jebus. He knows he is a form of scum, like himself, thus he votes him, naming something like his "scumbuddy" (reasonably likely).

Of course if your "naming scumbuddy" theory isn't correct (also reasonably likely), then in the case of the second point (the first is still highly unlikely), it's very, very plausible he indeed tried to recruit Jebus, failed, knows he's an enemy cult or Nietzsche and thus wanted to vote/lynch/kill him, irrespective of whether he usually vote scumbuddies in his first post. So you are flawed in that your determination of his meta is poorly founded, plus even if you are correct he may still have been complying with your meta on him if Jebus isn't God.

those are all possible, but the only way that lynching Jebus is dangerous is if he really is a CR, and the odds of that are slim, and if JEbus were CR then I feel that qwints would've produced a different set of tells... and a different set of claims with different timing.

to me it feels like they are. It is hard to justify intuition with honesty. If you like I can do a PBPA and rationalize it (and make it sound good) but the source of my conclusion was intuition.

You'll need more than this, sorry. You can't fall back on "intuition" when you're talking about doing something which looks likely to lose us the game.

have fun trying to tell me, or anyone else on the internets, what to do. I was honest, and I certainly can produce the bullshit that you seem to be looking for, but I feel that would waste everyone's time. I've spent thousands of hours playing mafia over the last two years, and I've done a lot of rigorous research. That is the kind of experience that builds good intuition.

he was going for his "secondary win" of god not dying even if he does. It is a reflex action of scum... even though the win conditions in this game are different, the instinct to distance from his scummate remained.

He openly acknowledged his desire to protect God. He might be a unique (and special) player but I have to assume cult leaders would play like I would i.e. being indifferent to whether they or God were lynched, because they lose either way.

continue assuming that other players play as scum as your do, and your town win record will continue being horrible. I started off being a terrible town player, but look at my last 10 or 15 or 20 games as town.

there were 20 players in the game. 20-1 = 19. If he was taking his knowledge of who god is into account, the base number would've been 18 instead of 19. The point is valid.

Big, big assumption. I've made mistakes like that when I forgot take into account whether I'm calculating probability from someone's perspective or in general like that before.

do you have something better with your expert scumhunting skills?

4. Players with hidden information (scum) are much more likely to name each other.
5. All of my chief scum suspects named Jebus multiple times.

So you're saying the cult players are likely to attack the other cult players e.g. Jebus.

"name" means typing his name into a post. I did not say they attacked him.

That may be true, but it's not relevant to the point I was making. Change to "So you're saying the cult players are likely to

name

the other cult players e.g. Jebus." It doesn't mean Jebus is

God

please read my posts again, and try to think more clearly this time.

no, you wouldn't see a damn thing because they wouldn't be sure how to respond. Then they would quickly lynch qwints, exactly what happened. qwints was absolutely correct that the optimal move for agnostics was to lynch Jebus. Notice how that didn't happen.

You possibly have an argument for saying that lynching qwints was wrong in

retrospect

but at the time we definitely did not know that qwints was a cult leader rather than God, and I for one thought there was a decent chance of it considering he'd already lied once about the full extent of his scumminess.

this was a test. if you were thinking intelligently about this game you would point out that we would be in the exact same situation if we lynched Jebus and he was a CR... but if he was not a CR and was revealed as being cult recruit then we would absolutely know that qwints was a CR and not god.

your walls of words do not disguise the fact that you are full of fail.

please type less and think more.

[Adel]

also, there are several ways that qwints gambit could have worked out, and he was desperate. The town could have, for instance, concluded that it wasn't safe to kill

either

possible CR.. some agnostics are definitely planning to win by getting recruited.

[Adel]

please type less and think more.

[Adel]

if you don't believe that developing a player specific meta has utility, then I doubt that your town play has improved much. You probably still believe in "universal scumtells" like that "errors in logic" = scuminess.

Haha, no, this could not be one iota further from the truth (I have argued that general behavioural tells [rather than, for example, testing hypotheses about scum] are highly retarded in previous games and usually a justification scum give). I was insuring myself against you yourself using such a poor application of meta, which I anticipated by you mentioning 4 of my games and commenting on only one "ortolan survives as scum", which is very out of place and furthermore meaningless unless you were doing something very simplistic like simply gathering my win ratio as scum/town. The bare fact you were compiling my meta when I was not under suspicion alone was out of place, actually.

you only analyze players who are under suspicion? you just keep on finding new way to make me laugh.

have fun trying to tell me, or anyone else on the internets, what to do. I was honest, and I certainly can produce the bullshit that you seem to be looking for, but I feel that would waste everyone's time. I've spent thousands of hours playing mafia over the last two years, and I've done a lot of rigorous research. That is the kind of experience that builds good intuition.

Ok. The problem is, even if your intuition is flawless, and I would have no idea not having played with you before, there is no reason to think you are not simply a player of the other cult trying to secure a win.

or you are a cult player who is trying to keep me from lynching god. Why would the person I replaced get recruited? You, on the pther hand, played well on day 1. Plus you stated that you are "obviously town" ... like you should be above suspicion.

please read my posts again, and try to think more clearly this time.

You said "scum are likely to mention one another by name". Cult leaders (if the other cult leaders figure out who they are) will then do this to each other, as well as God, as well as their recruits, assuming this tell is even valid. So why does Jebus have to be God?

it is more like that he is either god (auto win for me) or a recruit (will make the game more simple) than a CR (less than 1/18 chance).

this was a test. if you were thinking intelligently about this game you would point out that we would be in the exact same situation if we lynched Jebus and he was a CR... but if he was not a CR and was revealed as being cult recruit then we would absolutely know that qwints was a CR and not god.

I was an agnostic on day 1 (still am). I think I was pretty open about this, which you would have seen if you'd read properly, but one could not deny the possibility of being recruited night 1. Thus, as an agnostic, the best move was to lynch the person with the highest chance of being God (and lynching qwints even if he was CL was still pretty good)- if I succeeded, I won, if I failed I might be a recruit the next day. It's like you assume I was just completely oblivious and didn't think this through fully to begin with but unfortunately you're incorrect.

how is it that you are "obviously town" again?

but if he was not a CR and was revealed as being cult recruit then we would absolutely know that qwints was a CR and not god.

And why would this be more useful on a day 2 with a potential 10 scum players out of 18 (if Jebus wasn't a cult leader)? It's you that's not thinking things through.

how is it that you are "obviously town" again?


~~~~

at everyone else

it should be clear by now that ortolan was recruited last night, and is trying to prevent god from being lynched.

you are welcome.

[Adel]

You had insufficient time to read my post and then reply, plus my points are all valid, so I must conclude that you are attempting to troll.

said the cult recruit

[Adel]

You had insufficient time to read my post and then reply, plus my points are all valid, so I must conclude that you are attempting to troll.

you had insufficient time to read my post and think carefully about the game... which totally hold s with my theory that you were quite likely to be recruited last night, and you are the player trying hardest to keep god from being lynched.

[Adel]

why would I gambit if I were scum? I play to win, and I'm an expert player. There is no reason for me to take a big risk as scum when the longer a game is the greater an impact my superior skill would have on my odds of winning.

are you arguing that I am recruited or that I'm a CR or an inferior player as town to you? Or are you just trying to stop me from lynching god?

(you haven't done a meta on me, obviously, even though I made it easy for you)

[Adel]

at everyone else

it should be clear by now that ortolan was recruited last night, and is trying to prevent god from being lynched.

I was guessing this myself...but more details than that don't matter. It just means he's probably not God, and thus, we don't want to lynch him.

I would have a lot less confidence in my case if there wasn't a probable cult recruit trying to spam my case, in an attempt to keep the lurker agnostics from accepting it.

I expected some of the cult members (especially those who are in a cult with DGB, who I totally respect as scum) to shift to a wagon on god and hope that it would stall out and "prove" that he isn't god, and for an "obviously town" player from day 1 (recruited last night) to try harder and harder to refute my case as the bandwagon on god grew.

[Adel]

fyi, sadly, ortolan is consistent in making spammy wall of words posts as both town and scum. Hopefully he will learn (for when he is town) that typing long posts like that decreases the signal:noise ratio, makes it harder for other townies to follow and keep up with the game, and acts to suppress total player activity. Comparative scumhunting gets much easier when player contributions are closer to even.

[Adel]

I think it's pretty clear by now that Adel is one of our cult recruiters, trying as hard as possible to bring us deeper into the sea of WIFOM.

once again, cries of "WIFOM" are not an excuse to stop thinking critically about the game. If you want to be a good player, learn how to work through "WIFOM" and find the truth (within an acceptable degree of probability)

[Adel]

are you arguing that I am recruited or that I'm a CR or an inferior player as town to you? Or are you just trying to stop me from lynching god?

[Adel]

you do not have a case on me.

[Adel]

just because a lone wolf disapproves of my present style will not make me change.

a "lone wolf" with two scummies for 2008, fyi "professor mafia" and "best performance by an individual".

you might want to consider changing.

[Adel]

EBWOQ:

just because a lone wolf disapproves of my present style will not make me change.

a "lone wolf" with two scummies for 2008, fyi, "professor mafia" and "best performance by an individual (mafia)".

you might want to consider changing.

[Adel]

The fact you ignored that possibility in your case on Jebus and subsequent replies to me doesn't sit well with me.

why doesn't this count?

I started my writing my analysis while sharing the assumption that Jebus was probably a CR. I concluded later that he is probably god.

you can't have it both ways.

[Adel]

ortolan isn't seriously considering my case, obviously, and is just trying to punch holes in it. I expect another wall of words from him shortly.

[Adel]

ortlan's non-abandoned games as town:

Mini #717 - Alpha Centauri Smalltown (Game Over!) http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

night killed

Mini 701 - That's a Wrap! (Game Over)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... highlight=

night killed

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9816 Assassin in the Hospital

lynched

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9752 Serum and Steel

survived

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0 Crush Mafia

lynched

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9756 Carbon 14 (different one)

night killed

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9768 Night Watch

night killed

ortlan was recruited last night. He has learned how to appear townie enough to be reliably targeted by scum.

His attack on my Jebus case is now the single most important point in support of Jebus being god.

[Adel]

But I fear all you could conclude from these games is that I am crap as town and good as scum whereas I consider my town play has improved substantially since a lot of them (I say this because you have specifically commented on the fact I won as scum in one of the games).

^^ ???

Just calling it as I see it. Meta'ing me for this game would be stupid as I am obviously town anyhow.

lol

[Adel]

by the way, in Crush mafia one other player's win condition was to lynch him specifically.

[Adel]

.. and in Alpha Centauri Smalltown it was the last night phase, and out of 4 alive 2 players died.

damnit.

remaining points in support of you being recruited last night:

1. you were active and obviously pro-town yesterday
2. your level of motivation in attacking my case
3. that you haven't appeared to consider my case, or the remote odds that Jebus is CR and another CR targeted him and took so long to claim his result, as compared to qwints trying a gambit with a chance of success (extorting the other cultists, wifoming the town into thinking that Jebus was another CR) with information (name of god) that he actually had
4. that you have concluded that I am scum without building or presenting a case that I am scum

[Adel]

ortolan's case against the person he claims to think is god:

I have just determined that Zakeri is the lynch for today.

Vote: Zakeri

You know you want to.

Why does Zakeri only have one vote? I wasn't joking, guys.

The fact the Zakeri wagon only has two votes appalls me

Why aren't you voting,

scum

?

Misrwp. But finding God is a long shot. CL's are easier. Besides how can we distinguish god-scum from CL-scum?

Stop being scummy please. If we lynch another cult leader we insta-lose. Well I do. Not sure about you.

I may be confusing you with Jebus.

We've already worked out that Jebus is virtually guaranteed to be a cult leader. Your insistence on attacking him also pretty much guarantees you are either the leader or a recruit of the other remaining cult.

Now rewinding...

I do. I've been looking back over the phase change and what happened before it.

It's practically undeniable to me that Jebus is a cult leader based on what happened during phase change, and how Quints reacted towards him not being recruited. I don't think he's either God or a Cult leader because God didn't hit him, and I think he's a Cult Leader because Quintz wouldn't venge-out God just because he was being lynched.

DGB is also very noticable for placing her vote on someone other than who she believed was god. She voted, unvoted, and revoted Jebus while fingering others, even after listing Jebus blatantly as "Not God". It's very likely the DGB is a cult leader and has found Jebus to be another cult leader. It's also very possible if Jebus was Recruited that DGB was in fact the other Cult Leader that Recruited him, thus leading him to join the other cult leader.

I'll have to take another look back to see who's god from all of this, but it might lead to Pacman, who DGB seems to have been distancing.

I have no qualms with either of these conclusions. Funny thing is I still think you're God. God of course knows who his cult leaders are and would be perfectly fine with announcing suspicion of them.

Especially

in this context where both God and the town are actively trying to avoid lynching cult leaders anyhow (God needs to kill Nietzsche to win, Town needs to kill God to win- either has to happen before we kill a second cult leader or else the other cult wins). Plus it serves your goal of flying under the radar until you can kill Nietzsche very, very well.

I'm leaning towards Pacman as god, due to blatant distancing from DGB.

Oh, looking for people who DGB has distanced from sounds just dandy.

I have just determined that Zakeri is the lynch for today.

Vote: Zakeri

You know you want to.

Gah! I hate, HATE mind readers.

unvote, vote: Zakeri

DGB was keen to get her vote off and onto Jahudo though, who to me looks incredibly obv-town:

Again I'm willing to lynch any of the aborted day 1 wagons.

unvote, vote: Jahudo

Pacman is too obvious and easy a target (lurking, lacking contributions etc.) and I think Zakeri was taking advantage.

I am calling out Zakeri as God now. Agnostics please vote for him, don't wait until tomorrow by which time I may be culted and trying my best to prevent his lynch. Also if you pretty much notice all his posts today solely relate to God's thought process. There's nothing to indicate he isn't God.

Zakeri needs more votes at this point for them to be useful

um the fact DGB-cult and Jebus-OBVCULT are on mykonian's wagon is enough reason to pile off it in droves.

Please vote Zakeri and I'll give you candy.

that is how much work he put into chasing god.

look at how much work he put into attacking my case, without seriously considering it.

[Adel]

I am a bit hesitant to reply because I'm expecting the wall o' text accusation again, but:

Wait why has the focus suddenly turned to whether or not I got recruited? You are blatantly trying to discredit me purely because I called into question your logic and motivation for the Jebus wagon

1. you were active and obviously pro-town yesterday

Don't think play is deviant between days 1 and 2. I was pretty let down no cult thought I was useful enough to recruit though. Struck a big blow for my self-esteem, it did.

but earlier

today

you were insisting that you were obviously pro-town.

2. your level of motivation in attacking my case

The likelihood of you being gambitting scum has risen substantially. Let's assume you are scum for a moment. You know who God is. You don't want him lynched, nor do you want yourself (if you're CR) or your cult leader lynched. Therefore Jebus isn't God or your cult leader. Therefore Jebus is very, very, very likely to be the other cult leader. You win if you kill him. You are obviously an experienced player. Why should we not be hesitant about voting with you in light of the decent possibility you're cult?

because a better explanation for my motivation and activity level is that I think I have one and only one shot of lynching god before I become a Christian Recruit.

3. that you haven't appeared to consider my case, or the remote odds that Jebus is CR and another CR targeted him and took so long to claim his result, as compared to qwints trying a gambit with a chance of success (extorting the other cultists, wifoming the town into thinking that Jebus was another CR) with information (name of god) that he actually had

I have. I don't agree with it. I think the chance that qwints was busing Jebus as God is 20% or less.

and what are your odds that Jebus is CR?

4. that you have concluded that I am scum without building or presenting a case that I am scum

I am getting increasingly certain you are, but if anything it's certainly no worse than the way you responded to me- meta'ing me for some reason then going down this divergent path of "hey, even though I never mentioned this before, ortolan must be cult because he's attacking my case".

I surveyed your games to see how often you were targeted at night. You are accusing me of OMGUS when it should be transparent that my suspicion was the result of evidence-based scumhunting.

[Adel]

I am uncertain on Zakeri and was partly fishing for reactions with those ploys.

I think it is more likely that Jebus is cult leader than Zakeri is God though, and lynching a cult leader is auto-lose so I've justifiably put more work in derailing something which is more likely anti-town in my estimation.

which was entirely the point behind qwint's gambit!

[Adel]

I am a bit hesitant to reply because I'm expecting the wall o' text accusation again, but:

Wait why has the focus suddenly turned to whether or not I got recruited? You are blatantly trying to discredit me purely because I called into question your logic and motivation for the Jebus wagon

1. you were active and obviously pro-town yesterday

Don't think play is deviant between days 1 and 2. I was pretty let down no cult thought I was useful enough to recruit though. Struck a big blow for my self-esteem, it did.

but earlier

today

you were insisting that you were obviously pro-town.

What is inconsistent about this?

an "obviouly pro-town" player is an obvious target for recruitment

because a better explanation for my motivation and activity level is that I think I have one and only one shot of lynching god before I become a Christian Recruit.

Wait, what?

the odds are unacceptably high that I will be recruited by both the Jews and Muslims tonight, making me a Xian recruit, which is auto-lose for me. I have one day to find and lynch god, and I'm trying as hard as I. That is why I have a high motivation level. If I were CR or cult I would lurk through this day.

and what are your odds that Jebus is CR?

The inverse of that. So, 80% or greater. I don't think any other possibilities are viable e.g. qwints actually have recruited Jebus and lying about not having done so.

80%

! Wow! I have never had that level of certainty in a mafia game with this many alive. What were the base odds for Jebus both being a CR

and

being targeted by another CR for recruitment?

which was entirely the point behind qwint's gambit!

This is Wine in Front of Me, yes?

YES, IT WAS A WIFOM GAMBIT! The desired result was:
1. for qwints to not be lynched
2. for agnostics to not consider lynching god.

[Adel]

btw, can CRs talk to their new recruits the same night they get recruited?

[Adel]

you missed a question:

btw, can CRs talk to their new recruits the same night they get recruited?

[Adel]

For someone with an apparently competent grasp of probability it is bizarre you would suggest this is the correct probability to work from. In fact the relevant probability is whether any cult leader would attempt to recruit someone who turned out to be another cult leader. The chance of this is 1/9. (18 possible recruitment choices, excluding oneself and God from the 20- 2 cult leaders possibly out of this 18 i.e. 1/9). That's not at all remote (and please people, that is not what I am suggesting the probability is that qwints was telling the truth, which is far far higher).

YES, IT WAS A WIFOM GAMBIT! The desired result was:
1. for qwints to not be lynched
2. for agnostics to not consider lynching god.

We can discuss whether this was correct post-game. For now I don't buy your case.

now that you've demonstrated your competent grasp of probability, please explain your 80% number.

Where did it come from?

[Adel]

another question you skipped:

The fact you ignored that possibility in your case on Jebus and subsequent replies to me doesn't sit well with me.

why doesn't this count?

I started my writing my analysis while sharing the assumption that Jebus was probably a CR. I concluded later that he is probably god.

you can't have it both ways.

[Adel]

another question you skipped:

are you arguing that I am recruited or that I'm a CR or an inferior player as town to you? Or are you just trying to stop me from lynching god?

[Adel]

the odds are unacceptably high that I will be recruited by both the Jews and Muslims tonight, making me a Xian recruit, which is auto-lose for me. I have one day to find and lynch god, and I'm trying as hard as I. That is why I have a high motivation level. If I were CR or cult I would lurk through this day.

Ironically by stating openly you make it far less likely. Cassandra paradox, or something.

please explain how you reached this conclusion

[Adel]

I don't get what you're asking in 1198.

another question you skipped:

are you arguing that I am recruited or that I'm a CR or an inferior player as town to you? Or are you just trying to stop me from lynching god?

Determining which of us is better based on one game is silly, I don't think it's in issue. We may both be town and one or the other of us might be wrong. However I would expect you to be more conscious of the ready possibility of us mis-lynching a cult leader if you were town, so I'm thinking of the decent possibility of you being scum.

this seems related to:

another question you skipped:

The fact you ignored that possibility in your case on Jebus and subsequent replies to me doesn't sit well with me.

why doesn't this count?

I started my writing my analysis while sharing the assumption that Jebus was probably a CR. I concluded later that he is probably god.

you can't have it both ways.

there is a chance that he is CR, that was my starting assumption, but I think there is a much greater chance that he is god.

What do you think my current alignment is? Please state odds.

[Adel]

please explain how you reached this conclusion

Scum, now fully aware of the potential for cross-recruitment and thus a wasted recruit, are now less likely to target you. That's assuming you're not recruited already and assuming you are indeed viewed as a useful cult player by the cult leaders.

no. they remain highly likely to recruit me, if only to keep me out of the other cult. Now you are trying to wifom the other cult!

[Adel]

What do you think my current alignment is? Please state odds.

I'm not sure if subjective probabilities like these are meaningful but I'd say about 50/50

don't punk out like that! 50/50 what?

CR?
recruit?
agnostic?
God?

you haven't been thinking about me from an agnostic perspective, obviously.

[Adel]

but you have worlds of motivation to attack my case against god. you have demonstrated that you are typing from perspective of established and firm conclusions, not stopping to consider that my case has merit (never mind the character attacks and statements about what my alignment is). You have shown no motivation to find god.

You have lots of motivation to protect and defend your god.

please claim cult recruit now please, so we can move on.

[Adel]

from day 1:

might I also add;

There are two things you might be lying about- being a cult leader rather than God and having targeted Jebus.

Secondly, the only thing voting Jebus will accomplish at this stage is a likely no-lynch, as there is no way you're going to get a majority in this time. Thus you want us basically to not use our lynch today, which is far more likely to fuck over agnostics as we will then be in the minority or around even numbers with cult day two (which makes it impossible to lynch God).

he saw qwint's gambit for what it was on day 1

why can't ortolan see it today?

[Adel]

how are you

80%

sure that Jebus is the CR again?

[Adel]

the way I see it is (1/9 chance of targeting a CR * chance of deciding to claim honestly the

second

time) vs (100% chance of knowing god's name and going for last min gambit)

that 1/9 is what I am hung up on, whereas I can see the potential of going for that gambit being closer to 8/9

[Adel]

between the two viable choices, qwints bussing God and qwints telling the truth about Jebus, I think the latter is roughly four times more likely.

the way I see it is (1/9 chance of targeting a CR * chance of deciding to claim honestly the

second

time) vs (100% chance of knowing god's name and going for last min gambit)

that 1/9 is what I am hung up on, whereas I can see the potential of going for that gambit being closer to 8/9

what amazes me is that you never paused to consider that I might have a case. you just kept on pounding your keys.

[Adel]

1)He's ignoring my statements

it is either that or policy lynch you for being a fool that spams up games and makes them less fun for other players.

[Adel]

like jebus? he is at lynch -4 and the deadline is ticking

[Adel]

like jebus? he is at lynch -4 and the deadline is ticking

And the wagon is stalling badly, which is a good sign. The fact that he got so many votes, not such a good sign.

bullshit. you are cult, and you jumped on the wagon on god in the hopes of "proving" that he is not god.


i actually went over this earlier:

at everyone else

it should be clear by now that ortolan was recruited last night, and is trying to prevent god from being lynched.

I was guessing this myself...but more details than that don't matter. It just means he's probably not God, and thus, we don't want to lynch him.

I would have a lot less confidence in my case if there wasn't a probable cult recruit trying to spam my case, in an attempt to keep the lurker agnostics from accepting it.

I expected some of the cult members (especially those who are in a cult with DGB, who I totally respect as scum) to shift to a wagon on god and hope that it would stall out and "prove" that he isn't god, and for an "obviously town" player from day 1 (recruited last night) to try harder and harder to refute my case as the bandwagon on god grew.

[Adel]

@ X: whate we need if for as many people as possible to read the exchange between ort and I and summarize it. My version: ort spends a lot of time trying to nickpick a legitimate case rather than trying to find god, accuses adel of being scum, but does not have a case against her. Adel demonstrates that ort is highly likely to be a cult recruit, and the designated "obviously town" point-man in the defense of god. Ort attempts to use CX-style rhetorical techniques (keep typing, try to make more points, make sure a counter-point maps to each point) and demonstrates a lack of intellectual honesty, and the possession of "hidden information".

A careful reading of our exchange will show that ort is disingenuous on multiple occasions.

He has an unrealisticaly high expectation of Jebus being a CR (

80%

), which does not square with his demonstrated knowledge of probability.

He ignores my questions (and I don't ask many) while demonstrating that he has the time to keep pounding on the keys.

He keeps on calling me scum, without being able to point to anything that indicates that I am scum, other than that I am trying to lynch Jebus, who he has a flase degree of confidence of being a CR.

the way I see it is (1/9 chance of targeting a CR * chance of deciding to claim honestly the

second

time) vs (100% chance of knowing god's name and going for last min gambit)

that 1/9 is what I am hung up on, whereas I can see the potential of going for that gambit being closer to 8/9

That probability is wrong again. Taking into account the notion of conditional probabilities in Bayes' theorem, you have a higher likelihood to have claimed to have targetted a cult leader in the first place if you did target a cult leader rather than not having targetted a cult leader. The two events, attempting to recruit a cult leader and claiming to have done so in the position qwints was in, are not independent of one another probabilistically.

IF

he had targeted a CR during N0, all he had to do to avoid a lynch was claim CR with a CR target like he did, but with enough time before deadline to start a second wagon..

He lied the first time. He would not have lied the first time had he successfully identified another cult recruiter.

what amazes me is that you never paused to consider that I might have a case. you just kept on pounding your keys.

You are 20% likely to be right, as I said. I think it's more likely you are scum and will persuade an intellectually lacking town to lynch the last CR and win though.

Why do you think that I could be scum again? What evidence do you have that I could be scum?

no. while we were exchanging posts, you never paused to consider that I might be right. You pulled that number out of nowhere late in our exchange.

[Adel]

something interesting I just stumbled across:

Good point Cyberbob

This is what I've gleaned from very active play since my join date. I doubt anyone at random would have similar activity (I have like six times as many posts as him).

source:http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 69&start=7 (a thread in MD)

so ortolan makes Appeals to Experience in MD, but does not respect experience in this game.

[Adel]

ZZZZZ BVIUL ARTWC BENEL JEAUG XEVTA UDXDW SJKBP WPGUQ EWEMX HWGSJ
TVAFE LPBIG VNFGT LKKAO SWOFA KELBT OEHSA CUMKE XCVBA NEORT GAXVC
CNBBH VXBXK ELCXB UQQGM MSRQU OGCLT OSWSF VMKVW DDIPD SGMNA CVWGM
WSVKQ KGGQS BJKLT JWXOA NRXDS GIWUN GMQOU GIJNO WWLQP GRPMF CHGIN
AQHQJ AUUBM NONMG UCFLG GRTTB PVMOL RCPIO WEDMM DPLBE GGFAQ BEFKK
XCQXI FSIBG OCHLP GGPXU WHWJF ARMMW QLJTI TIXCL VSLJF WJRAU QQDFP
WDFXF CFDRS OWKHG JJRQI XSEOB RSIJD SEKRS UHNEB ORJWK XFPSF KRPVC
PNRSH MDCKD XNINL CVDFI MGCTS RBWPJ IWXPU TXFVB TVVOR TNVFU RNGSS
KFBUJ CJSXP NHJDM DUPRD HBOOC FIJQN RQKSW LWASJ VSJXF MDGCX MCJAB
BTNSV LFHNH OXIMA LNJSC LPOUK PANFN ODRON LPLOB MANAF MRHSB KOKBL
JXPBH IHEMG SKKJE PJJGA OQFLH QLEXI RVOLT CGEFV CWPJT ICOAI UHQLP
QOSID GHBOH QQDMX VAFMI PSNME GBWRM KCCWU EDAEL DISRT SFHAD WBXLR
FRCPC QQMHO XGREU FAHNP HUIEP SULBL SJPHP CKOFC FONED HOJLX HMLML
MBHQW JRBSX NXCKM HNQAA NGJIE CLABF RQFUX AERFH DXRRU UVJEW ILDBL
KBODC PXHKB CWBBK SDLOD INGBA DPLUI XTMTQ DWETI PMFAN VNSBT TUBCK
TVQKN DWPLK QMTVW RGTHB OMCSB UELDA LPQDK VQHSD MLOKD EVIDP XAMBV
NRDUQ JGATT HNICD BHHQQ VMRUR PXEJK IUAWM OXPEX CBRGT LJGKR KSTAM
WLWRO FCMAB WQTSS GDOCD DWHFI CAANG TKTLV WTMSF SEMUU OHRUW IGAAR
RJJXJ HLEQN TRIJO MSBUQ GSRAD VMFKT FCSRP JSAOF VAXLH BVPEP FSLTF
HBJVI LNSWT TGBVJ EGIJB VNRVD ANCKU WFUVE DTAEV PBQIX DRSWO IJALU
WSAEB QXWKF OJSCD QRXQT GWAVP VBVQI IKPKV PXUMX ASQRE JSVMP JROJD
UMZZZ YYYYY

[Adel]

Adel, ortolan, could you do us all a favor and

try to summarize what that huge argument was just about in <300 words?

Thanks. I did read through it all, but a lot of it just flew by me as unadulterated ferocity.

I didn't mean my posts to come across as ferocious. I was enjoying arguing with Adel. We were kind of going in circles but I didn't mind at the time.

note that there is no summary -- or case for an alternative god -- he is single-minded in his dedication to attacking my case.

bullshit. you are cult, and you jumped on the wagon on god in the hopes of "proving" that he is not god.

Hang on, why is DGB cult?

major reason: most likely to be recruited N0

My argument for her being cult is contingent on her being keen to lynch Jebus who I think is a pretty likely and obviously so cult leader.

she isn't keen. did not notice her describe the Jebus wagon as stalled, and call for another wagon?

and demonstrates a lack of intellectual honesty

No, Adel's attempts at character assassination are poor.

according to you I have successfully made no valid points.

He has an unrealisticaly high expectation of Jebus being a CR (

80%

), which does not square with his demonstrated knowledge of probability.

That is a subjectively determined probability, it is not derived from anything. This criticism is stupid.

this is an example of intellectual dishonesty. You can't point to anything evidence based, other than your own opinion and intuition. What did you say about intuition earlier?

He ignores my questions (and I don't ask many) while demonstrating that he has the time to keep pounding on the keys.

What? Which?

more proof that you aren't reading my posts. try again please.

He keeps on calling me scum, without being able to point to anything that indicates that I am scum, other than that I am trying to lynch Jebus, who he has a flase degree of confidence of being a CR.

You are doing the same to me in fact.

I've explained why I think you are a likely N1 recruit, I've left a transparent trail from my evidence collection, and I've found a contradiction between what you say in this game and what you say in MD.

But my surety that Jebus is not God after my original determination that he was unlikely to be was contributed to by you insisting he was God and not taking into account other possibilities (and I poked several holes in your case e.g. your meta on qwints was derived from one game and even if it did apply it was still consistent with scum naming their recruits other cult leaders, thereby not at all guaranteeing Jebus is God.)

I plainly stated that was my original assumption, and showed how I worked from there.

IF

he had targeted a CR during N0, all he had to do to avoid a lynch was claim CR with a CR target like he did, but with enough time before deadline to start a second wagon..

He lied the first time. He would not have lied the first time had he successfully identified another cult recruiter.

Um, no, I still would have lynched him. And actually, it just occurred to me something that I can't believe I didn't realise earlier. One of the most horrible problems with your case is that, to us, on day one, he may well have been telling the truth, and in fact found Nietzsche. The only reason we no longer think Jebus is Nietzsche is because he didn't die night one. So lynching Jebus would have been an exceptionally mentally deficient thing to do.

1/18 of Nietzsche, 1/9 of CR, some other number if it was a double recruitment,

if he was telling the truth

... and you are awfully sure that he was.

Why do you think that I could be scum again? What evidence do you have that I could be scum?

no. while we were exchanging posts, you never paused to consider that I might be right. You pulled that number out of nowhere late in our exchange.

For fuck's sake, I stated multiple times that the probability of your theory being correct, objectively was 20%. I think it is less true now because I view you as incredibly scummy now.

again, you are dodging a central question. You are willing to repeat over and over again that I am scum, without speculating on what kind of scum I am, or stating why you think I am scum other than that I am trying to lynch Jebus.

Likelihood of Adel being cult raised to 99% and Jebus being rival CL changed to 99%. I am stating this more for my own satisfaction though because I fear town will fall for the appeal to authority. I await loss by Adel-cult-victory.

more shiny statistics.

[Adel]

Argh, that's annoying

something interesting I just stumbled across:

Good point Cyberbob

This is what I've gleaned from very active play since my join date. I doubt anyone at random would have similar activity (I have like six times as many posts as him).

source:http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 69&start=7 (a thread in MD)

so ortolan makes Appeals to Experience in MD, but does not respect experience in this game.

1) I have already stated that I don't believe experience is necessarily a good indication of skill.

how about two scummies and a minivitation invitation -- selected by mith + people picked by mith as an indication of skill, since you don't want to recognize my number of games, or number of wins as metricizes of skill. What does identify a skilled player then? Anything?

I also stated that there is an effect that the perception of experience by other players actually makes one more successful in the game- from my own experience people I've played with before rarely try and lynch me but more importantly in general they're less likely to get lynched as town and scum, thus automatically having some effect on their win ratios. This also does not mean that there isn't a correlation between experience and skill in general, even if one controlled for this effect of "perception of experience by others", but one should certainly not assume as much in any individual case.

do you think I am s skilled mafia player?

2) Perhaps more importantly in this case, I was replying to someone who I'd recently had a falling out with in a game and there was a high mutual lack of respect between us (hence him attempting a troll in that thread). I couldn't be bothered with conflict so just countered his argument meekly. Even irrespective of this you could compare it to the "even if" aspect in debating- he cited my join date compared to the other guy's as evidence that I had similar experience to him and thus my statement was invalid. I replied saying "well if you're using experience as a judgment of ability, I do in fact still have more experience in the fact that I've likely played more games than him, even if our join dates are around a similar time".

Your meta-technique of making completely

absurd generalisations

based on one post is seriously lacking.

you made an appeal to experience (number of game posts, which is one of the weakest measures of mafia knowledge or skill IMHO) in MD. You thought that was a valid point to make there against a player you previously had beef with. I never brought up my experience level until you questioned my use of intuition, and I used experience as a reason why I think I've developed intuition with utility for mafia.

[Adel]

also, why do you think that I am so highly motivated today?
Can you find a similar level of post frequency in any of my other games?

[Adel]

What do you think my current alignment is? Please state odds.

I'm not sure if subjective probabilities like these are meaningful but I'd say about 50/50

don't punk out like that! 50/50 what?

CR?
recruit?
agnostic?
God?

you haven't been thinking about me from an agnostic perspective, obviously.

not really, I just couldn't be bothered re-reading the whole thread to determine which is more likely. The fact of your position on Jebus alone set off alarm bells, consider it a behavioural tell++

can you answer the question now?

another question you skipped:

The fact you ignored that possibility in your case on Jebus and subsequent replies to me doesn't sit well with me.

why doesn't this count?

I started my writing my analysis while sharing the assumption that Jebus was probably a CR. I concluded later that he is probably god.

you can't have it both ways.

feel like finally answering this?

[Adel]

I am uncertain on Zakeri and was partly fishing for reactions with those ploys.

have you considered that my original case on Jebus may have been fishing for replies, and perhaps I even had expectation as to what would happen if he was CR as opposed to god?

do you recall this:

I would have a lot less confidence in my case if there wasn't a probable cult recruit trying to spam my case, in an attempt to keep the lurker agnostics from accepting it.

I expected some of the cult members (especially those who are in a cult with DGB, who I totally respect as scum) to shift to a wagon on god and hope that it would stall out and "prove" that he isn't god, and for an "obviously town" player from day 1 (recruited last night) to try harder and harder to refute my case as the bandwagon on god grew.

[Adel]

Just calling it as I see it. Meta'ing me for this game would be stupid as I am obviously town anyhow.

I was insuring myself against you yourself using such a poor application of meta, which I anticipated by you mentioning 4 of my games and commenting on only one "ortolan survives as scum", which is very out of place and furthermore meaningless unless you were doing something very simplistic like simply gathering my win ratio as scum/town. The bare fact you were compiling my meta when I was not under suspicion alone was out of place, actually.

I was looking at how often he was targeted by night moves. He placed pressure on Jebus Day one, and was, to use his words "obviously pro-town" and he later said he was disappointed that the scum didn't think he was skilled enough to recruit him.

When I state that I was looking at his games to see how often he got targeted at night he replied with

ortlan was recruited last night. He has learned how to appear townie enough to be reliably targeted by scum.

Proof your meta-ing ability is imperfect (or you are scum).

Just to fully refute your meta-gathering process, all 3 of those games I was night-killed had extremely special circumstances:

in 701 I was a confirmed mason (claimed day one due to poor play)

Carbon 14 I was actually targeted by scum for a night-kill because I was the most scummy and they were trying a gambit where one scum would act scummy, the other would bus them and use the townie points to try to win (didn't work)- you can see them say this at the end of the game.

in Night Watch (although I played well as town that game imo) I got killed because the hider said he would hide behind me and WIFOM'ed scum into night-killing me thus confirming who the last scum was (I believe).

It is cool from reading your wiki page that you actually invented several of those setups, but I must say I see no evidence your meta-ing is effective based on what you determined of me.

he was trying to have it both ways again.

I had a reason to gather a meta (determine if he was a probable recruit or not) and used a approach (look at how many times he was targeted) that makes sense. He tried to present the fact that I was building a meta as a scumtell against me!

as I said shortly after I replaced in

the small sample size problem is always present in mafia. My method of scumhunting always relies upon small shifts in probability.

A player that is targeted for a nk in 4/8 games is slightly more likely to be targeted by a cult in this game. A player that placed pressure on Jebus on day 1 (regardless of if Jebus is a CR or god, but not if he was a double cult recruit, or if qwints just pulled a random name out of thin air to name as his failed cult target) is more likely to be targeted by a CR.

~~~

The fact of your position on Jebus alone set off alarm bells, consider it a behavioural tell++

but earlier he wrote:

if you don't believe that developing a player specific meta has utility, then I doubt that your town play has improved much. You probably still believe in "universal scumtells" like that "errors in logic" = scuminess.

Haha, no, this could not be one iota further from the truth (I have argued that general behavioural tells [rather than, for example, testing hypotheses about scum] are highly retarded in previous games and usually a justification scum give).

So now ort is 99% sure that I am scum (but he hasn't looked into what kind of scum I am) based off of a "behavioural tell".

He has demonstrated statistical fluency. There is no possible way to be that sure on day 2.

[Adel]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 48#1561548

I have inferred from this post, a la yourself that you must use one of these for every game. Please show me your spreadsheet/graph for this game.

out of my 47 games I've done ~6. I typically only do them when I replace in towards the end of of the middle game. I replaced in so early in this game that I didn't bother. Also, I do them as scum, mini 650 (my last compleated game) being the most recent example.

Also,

A player that is targeted for a nk in 4/8 games is slightly more likely to be targeted by a cult in this game.

It's ironic for someone who accused me of not answering questions (I still don't know what they are), that you would re-iterate these figures to try to argue for my cultiness, even though I already said very explicitly what the facts behind these figures were and why they did not support your conclusion that I am a popular night-kill choice for scum in the slightest (and in fact contradict it very heavily- one of them I was in fact killed by a vig so that is clearly not being killed by scum and all three others had completely out-of-the-ordinary circumstances).

that is why I did a meta check on you... first you said there was no reason for me to do one, then you said it was scummy that I did one. Now you are arguing that it is useless, and I admitted immediately that it was incorrect after your offered your explanation. You have not shown that kind of intellectual honestly. You just keep trying to counter me, point for point.. while skipping inconvenient questions, and never admiting when I make a valid point.

Incorrect. I again disagree with pretty much everything you've said but we are completely going around in circles at this point.

I've made great progress over my last few posts, thank you very much, and it is telling that you characterize that progress as "circles".

[Adel]

It's ironic for someone who accused me of not answering questions (I still don't know what they are).

not hard to find some, on the very same page even!

I am uncertain on Zakeri and was partly fishing for reactions with those ploys.

have you considered that my original case on Jebus may have been fishing for replies, and perhaps I even had expectation as to what would happen if he was CR as opposed to god?

do you recall this:

I would have a lot less confidence in my case if there wasn't a probable cult recruit trying to spam my case, in an attempt to keep the lurker agnostics from accepting it.

I expected some of the cult members (especially those who are in a cult with DGB, who I totally respect as scum) to shift to a wagon on god and hope that it would stall out and "prove" that he isn't god, and for an "obviously town" player from day 1 (recruited last night) to try harder and harder to refute my case as the bandwagon on god grew.

also, why do you think that I am so highly motivated today?
Can you find a similar level of post frequency in any of my other games?

What do you think my current alignment is? Please state odds.

I'm not sure if subjective probabilities like these are meaningful but I'd say about 50/50

don't punk out like that! 50/50 what?

CR?
recruit?
agnostic?
God?

you haven't been thinking about me from an agnostic perspective, obviously.

not really, I just couldn't be bothered re-reading the whole thread to determine which is more likely. The fact of your position on Jebus alone set off alarm bells, consider it a behavioural tell++

can you answer the question now?

another question you skipped:

The fact you ignored that possibility in your case on Jebus and subsequent replies to me doesn't sit well with me.

why doesn't this count?

I started my writing my analysis while sharing the assumption that Jebus was probably a CR. I concluded later that he is probably god.

you can't have it both ways.

feel like finally answering this?

how about two scummies and a minivitation invitation -- selected by mith + people picked by mith as an indication of skill, since you don't want to recognize my number of games, or number of wins as metricizes of skill. What does identify a skilled player then? Anything?

do you think I am s skilled mafia player?

bullshit. you are cult, and you jumped on the wagon on god in the hopes of "proving" that he is not god.

Hang on, why is DGB cult?

major reason: most likely to be recruited N0

My argument for her being cult is contingent on her being keen to lynch Jebus who I think is a pretty likely and obviously so cult leader.

she isn't keen. did not notice her describe the Jebus wagon as stalled, and call for another wagon?

also, didn't you identify DGB as likely cult more than once earlier today?

[Adel]

JEBUS FAKECLAIMED AND ALL OF YOU BOUGHT IT!

he will die tonight, so he should use his 1-shot kill immediately

THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT CONFIRMS Neitzche.

it is a fakeclaim!

[Adel]

I say we tell Jebus to use his one shot-kill on whoever he thinks is God the most, I'd say Zakeri personally. Otherwise lynch him- if he doesn't use his night-kill today he'll have to use it tonight anyway because God till target him. So let's vote on whom she should day-kill

ort is right on the money, except that deadline is looming.

I think Jebus should kill Zakeri

[Adel]

Sorry, I just got caught up again

What do you mean?
Did you read page 50?
What pages were you reading?
Did you notice the vote count at all on page 50?
Why didn't you check with the vote count on page 50 to make sure I was not lying or mistaken?

this

JEBUS FAKECLAIMED!

[Adel]

nobody listen to DGB.

like jebus? he is at lynch -4 and the deadline is ticking

And the wagon is stalling badly, which is a good sign. The fact that he got so many votes, not such a good sign.

bullshit. you are cult, and you jumped on the wagon on god in the hopes of "proving" that he is not god.


i actually went over this earlier:

at everyone else

it should be clear by now that ortolan was recruited last night, and is trying to prevent god from being lynched.

I was guessing this myself...but more details than that don't matter. It just means he's probably not God, and thus, we don't want to lynch him.

I would have a lot less confidence in my case if there wasn't a probable cult recruit trying to spam my case, in an attempt to keep the lurker agnostics from accepting it.

I expected some of the cult members (especially those who are in a cult with DGB, who I totally respect as scum) to shift to a wagon on god and hope that it would stall out and "prove" that he isn't god, and for an "obviously town" player from day 1 (recruited last night) to try harder and harder to refute my case as the bandwagon on god grew.

she is still cult and HP had a vote on jebus and knew it. That does not make HP god, in any way.

DGB is still trying to protect Jebus.

[Adel]

JEBUS FAKECLAIMED AND ALL OF YOU BOUGHT IT!

he will die tonight, so he should use his 1-shot kill immediately

THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT CONFIRMS Neitzche.

it is a fakeclaim!

since when is there a roleblocker? He can use his kill, if his claim is true, something I think likely. After you think you are lynched, lying is a bit useless.

and in any case, I don't want to lynch him, because if he is Nietzsche, I'm a fool for not giving him an extra chance, and if he isn't, nothing is yet lost, because Nietzsche is still out there.

a false assumption: he didn't think that he was lynched.

the town gets two kills: one from N and one from lynch. It doesn't matter which comes first... except that if the N kill comes first then we know that Jebus isn't god. If jebus doesn't confirm himself before the lynch then agnostics still have a chance to kill god while our numbers are strong enough to drive the lynch.

If we lynch first (someone who is not Jebus) then if Jebus is god there will be no way that he will get lynched tomorrow.

[Adel]

It sounds to me like Jebus really thought he was lynched.

It sounds to me like Adel is scum.

wanting to test a scummy claim = scum?

lol

[Adel]

we can't divide our attention. We need to pressure Jebus to use his kill, or else if he is not N he can simply lurk while the momentum dissolves.

[Adel]

If he is Nietzsche (which I highly, highly doubt) he needs to use his kill (on Zakeri would be fine thanks) because he will have to use it tonight anyhow. If he fails to do so, lynch.

I totally support this... unless two players claim to have been recruited by Jebus.

[Adel]

@ ort, zak and jebus: what did y'all learn about each other in mini 705?

Why did Jebus choose to protect ortolan on night 2 and 3?

[Adel]

Also, this:

ZZZZZ BVIUL ARTWC BENEL ....

wut? /googles cryptography

I was trying to identify which false assumptions I had, PM'd the mod something I thought was obvious, and got a response that changed a couple things for me.
I encrypted that information, so if I had to pull the plug on the Jebus wagon at the last moment, I could.

[Adel]

zakeri or Jahudo

[Adel]

the key is the following text

Code: Select all

7adel7is7god7  

and the decrypted message is

Code: Select all

i just found out that if I get recruited by both cults tonight that I will die -- i will not be an Xian recruit.  I thought that the signup thread was really clear.


that makes the jebus wagon rather more risky for me than I thought.  I currently place jebus's chance of being god at about 55%, CR 30% and other (recruit or agnostic) at 15%

I expect to force him to claim, and for his recruits to claim before the end of the day, and if their claims are believable then I think Zakei or Jahudo are prolly the right lynches.  

[Adel]

I'm going to kill Juhado, any objections?

nope. do it.

[Adel]

unvote Jebus

send in the kill now!

You will get hammered very quickly if you do not.

[Adel]

Ten votes to lynch. The deadline is on

March 26th

at 4:00 PM PST.[/size]

20 hours and 45 min by my count.

[Adel]

I've sent the kill to Gurgi, wait for him to get on to post it :/

Also, Adel, link me to what you used to code/decode that cryptogram. I'm interested to see this, since even with that key word, every decent decoder I know doesn't decode your cryptogram to that message :/

lol, that would be the most important question, http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/javascrypt.html

[Adel]

everyone should hold their votes until we get a deathscene.... which shouldn't be too long from now if he is N.

[Adel]

Also, what do you mean by the first paragraph of text in the decrypted text?

up until that point I was worried that I would be recruited by both cults tonight, and end up with a Xian recruit role pm, which is auto lose.

I sent a PM to LG just to make sure, and his answer was that I would actually die, and keep my agnostic win condition.

[Adel]

vote: Looker

since I am going down my list, and he replaced zakeri

[Adel]

DrippingGoofball --- 0 {None}
SilverPhoenix --- 0 {None}
Looker --- 2 {pacman281292, Adel}
zwetschenwasser --- 0 {None}


I am willing to lynch these people

[Adel]

looker replaced Zakeri

also, what ever happened to me being 99% scum?

[Adel]

Jebus: 5+5+2+2+2+5 -> 21/49

zwet: 5+2+5 -> 12/28 -> 43%
zakeri: 5+2 -> 7/28 -> 25%
Jahudo: 2+2+1 -> 5/28 -> 18%
EA: 2 -> 2/28 -> 7%
ortolan: 1 -> 1/28 -> 4%
ting: 1 -> 1/28 -> 4%
(percentages do not add up to 100 due to rounding)

I'm going to hold with this. He did have hidden information about Jebus.
I think zwet is the next most likely person for him to have hidden information about.

Unvote, Vote: zwetschenwasser

[Adel]

Unvote
Vote: Zakeri

Yeah, that was stupid.

Didn't you say the same about me (ortolan is definitely scum) albeit you didn't have the guts to back it up with probability? My weighting has been changed in the face of new evidence, like a good townie's should.

I fail to see how Jebus being N. and Jahudo being agnostic would be any reason for a townie ortolan to change his opinion of me.

[Adel]

If I was God, I'd make it my goal to act cultish to be ignored.

mmm, not the most likely option. To avoid any more "If I was god" sentences: normally, as scum, you are trying to look as protown as possible. But maybe I must see Zwet as highly intelligent, and that he forsaw all this. I doubt it though.

look at zwet's sig line for example of what other people think of his "normal" play. God would play to his townie meta.

[Adel]

Also, how did you guys figure out that I failed at recruiting so many times?

they didn't. You and ort got played. I was pulling out my hair with frustration.

If Looker hadn't killed me (which would've been a genius move had I been N, and I don't think that killing me was a bad move for him, killing me was insurance in case Jebus really wasn't N.) I think this game would've played out quite differently.

[Adel]

Also, how did you guys figure out that I failed at recruiting so many times?

they didn't. You and ort got played. I was pulling out my hair with frustration.

Me? I didn't let on that we had failed at recruiting. I tried to play Agnostic up until post 1881.

but you gave up and didn't push NL as being the optimal move for agnostics (it was). Once you were outed you didn't bluff (or mindfuck) them into thinking that that you had superior numbers.

I really wish I hadn't been killed by god. I think we would've made a good team.

[Adel]

gg. The House of Islam really played well.

[Adel]

hey ortolan, I really enjoyed interacting with you Day 2. I look forward to playing with you in future games.

[Adel]

nope. agnostic. I was recruited in the same period of night that god killed me, that bastard I figured that I would be recruited night 2 regardless of what I typed during day 2, so I felt that I only had that one day to fulfill my current win condition. I think I would've been more successful had Jebus been more active and involved, and if you hadn't given me so much grief. Looker was in my top 3 IIRC.. let me check..

[Adel]

1 out of (Jebus,zwet,zakeri,Jahudo) is god. There is a real chance that qwint naming Jebus as unrecruitable was a wifom gambit.. he had nothing to lose at that point.

fuck, with the lynch and N. kill we had a 50% chance of winning off of this list.