Martyr Mafia - Game Over

[ortolan]

Vote:zachattack

Hi.

Godtell.

Vote: ting =)

[ortolan]

God is most likely to die by lynching today- as the days go on it will become more and more like assassin in the palace between as the majority of players will be in cults. Although there will also be the cult vs. cult game.

[ortolan]

ok, so the majority of us are agnostics- at this point in time you should be acting like an agnostic, even if you're not one. This also means the majority of us are sided with Nietzsche.

I thought that the "I wouldn't be so fast to use a one-shot kill" line meant that he had a one-shot kill to not be so fast to use. I didn't see it right away, but I can see how it could be easily taken as "If I were Nietzche..."

Thus what are you even doing looking/drawing attention to Nietzche tells to begin with?

And why is Zakeri the scummy one out of this? He called you up on obviously anti-town behaviour and apparently that's worthy of a vote?

[ortolan]

Think I just realised us agnostics (;)) are consigned to the virtually impossible task of trying to lynch God day one, when there's already 7 people who know who he is and will never possibly allow him to be lynched (3 leaders, 3 recruits + God).

Thus we need eleven out of thirteen agnostic/Nietzsche votes to do us any good (because anyone else, even a cult leader doesn't really help us). Sucks.

[ortolan]

um, hi, I haven't posted since Tuesday so I'm obvGod etc.

I could vote for Zakeri (although I don't even remember the post that apparently makes him scummy), or Pacman, because DGB is awesome.

Jebus is acting like stereotypical townie "omgosh zwet, don't claim GoD!!! that is anti-town" which means he's probably scum but only has a 1/7 chance of being the scum playa we actually want to lynch

but still

Vote Jebus

[ortolan]

@orto.
Really? He's acting like a townie, so he's obviously not a townie? If you think something about Jebus' posts seems fake, fine. Otherwise, that logic as just as circular as tajo's too scummy call on zwet.

It specifically came across as disingenuous to me.

[ortolan]

@ting as though God would be stupid enough to draw attention to himself by claiming as the only role we actually want to lynch

And his comments like "don't be suicidal, leave or get replaced" etc. are stupid as either zwet has already ruined the game (if he is God) or he hasn't.

And this stuff about insisting someone ask to be replaced if they don't want to play properly is crap filler- it's their decision if they want to be replaced, not yours, anyway.

[ortolan]

so orton thinks jebus is so town he is scum?
I think he is just being amazingly scummy(Not recently, back around pages 7 to 9 at estimate)
As of late he got it together and made me change my vote.
speaking of,

unvote

No, I think he is not really town because he is giving a cliched in the extreme "townie" response

[ortolan]

Obvscum of what variety? We only want to lynch one out of the seven scum.

Why is the Jebus wagon lame?

[ortolan]

well, in this case it's Jebus' uncharacteristic self-righteousness in comparison ti my knowledge of his meta.

[ortolan]

yes...

[ortolan]

Still liking the Jebus wagon

He concoted a huge attack vote post against zwet, which suggests he is sweating at the prospect of being lynched

most of this post is "explain that thought" with little real analysis. Yes zwet comes across as scummy (new), but unfortunately in this game you can't ride by on getting mislynches like that today, because we are only looking for one very specific scum playa. I think you're much more likely to be He than zwet is.

This "bussing God" discussion is stupid. It certainly couldn't be the form of a normal bus- if God dies then they lose automatically. But furthermore the cult

leaders

have no particular reason to dissociate themselves from God- if they get lynched then they've lost anyway so they don't care if God gets caught as a result of their flip. Perhaps their recruits might care more. I am thinking in general the cults would react tentatively towards votes on God and if they looked serious/dangerous then start to jump in by arguing against them.

[ortolan]

"But furthermore the cult leaders have no particular reason to dissociate themselves from God-"

Try thinking of AItP. But with the assassin having a very sucky role. And the guards being cultists in 3 different groups. and add a bunch of vanillas waiting to be recruited who for the moment want god lynched instead.

It's not the same- while God has motivation to bus the cult leaders, they have no motivation to bus him. If they straight out bus him to a lynch then they lose. If they bus him to make themselves look dissocated from him when they flip scum, then they have nothing to gain by doing this- because once they've died they've already lost anyhow- they don't care whether or not the other players can work out who God is.

[ortolan]

k, God.

[ortolan]

ortolan, post 337, note how zwet's defense is snuck in there with the implication that he would be a mislynch. If you have a scummy read of him, why do you think he'd be a mislynch, do tell?

I did already explain that even if he's one of the seven scum we only want to lynch one- God, whom I doubt he is. Plus his actions may otherwise be explained by newness anyhow. It's quite simple really.

All of the lurkers are either scum or playing towards an expected wincon of recruited cult: Erratus Apathos, Indigo Heron, Double A, ortolan, qwints. Quite probably more.

Is this a slip? You seem to think I am playing for future recruitment (i.e. playing pro-scum) while knowing that I am not presently scum.

I need to look at that exchange between BM, MM and MK referred to in Bloodmoney's post above to see if they're possibly cult leaders/recruits/God trying to hint at lynch targets between one another.

[ortolan]

I don't buy ortolan's and qwints votes on Jebus. I don't like zwet's either. DGB's vote on Jebus is the only one that seems to have an actual reason behind it, but I don't buy it. If Jebus is being bussed, then he won't be God. Besides, the cult leaders don't know each other. God doesn't know the recruits either. And I'm assuming that the recruits don't know God. Whatever his role, him being bussed can't be right.

Wow, that's four people whose votes on Jebus you "don't buy", and you haven't really argued why. You sure he's not your leader/deity? You've just said why you don't think he's being bused, that's all well and good, I myself said God wouldn't be bused. But you just ignore the possibility he is being voted for by agnostics?

What do others think of the Jebus wagon?

[quote="Bloodmoney (359)

All of the lurkers are

either

(scum)

or

(playing towards an expected wincon of recruited cult): Erratus Apathos, Indigo Heron, Double A, ortolan, qwints. Quite probably more.

Is this a slip? You seem to think I am playing for future recruitment (i.e. playing pro-scum) while knowing that I am not presently scum.

Please note the formatting in the initial quote. You either don't read what you quote, or you are opting for blatant misrepping instead of actual helpful contribution. Feel free to tell me if it's the latter.[/quote]

Well, you're right, I did misread it, it must have been in an attempt to give a coherent/charitable interpretation of what you said. So you're calling me a lurker? Do you have any proof of this? Why are lurkers more likely to be scum than those participating in the game, it's no different to any other game where lurking is almost always a null-tell? So I disagree with two aspects of your argument- firstly I don't think I've posted little enough to warrant being classed a lurker, secondly I don't see why not posting as much as others is scummy anyhow- it's probably a mistake of mine to join so many large games which eat time like no other (which might have the effect of limiting my posting ability), but I don't see it raising the probability of me being scum. I will have to read over to see if those people you nominated as lurkers actually are as well, because I just don't see it in my case.

[ortolan]

lurking is much more anti-town (agnostic) in this game, because we very likely won't have majority by tomorrow. I want to do what I can Day 1, before the power of lynching is wrested from my hands. Cult/god need only to stall and/or mislynch today, and Nietzsche has a high possibility of misfiring too; that's why I suspect all lurkers of being scum or expecting to become one.

That's a fair enough rationale, but as I said you haven't actually established that those people you said were lurkers actually were lurking.

[ortolan]

Jebus I wouldn't be surprised if I'm not the only one who can't be bothered to read when you present so many tiny quotes and responses and so little synthesis. May I suggest a change in posting style?

[ortolan]

What's with Post 425 by SilverPhoenix about "rolefishing". Only one player in the whole game's role can be usefully fished by scum... (Nietzschke)

hmm, great??? lets vote for a towny! Because he point out bad play!

I did the same, why not me?

FoS ortolan

acting like a stereotypical townie does not equal acting townie

On this moment, I think zwet and maskman are culted, bloodmoney and Jebus as town, DGB as ???, orto as general scum

This is stupid. The setup does not accomodate you describing some players as "scummy culted" and some others as otherwise non specified scummy. If you were agnostic you'd be thinking about whether we were cult, recruits or God.

SCUM!

people, what would a roleclaim give us? (hint: nothing).

This is also stupid for aforementioned reasons, and as X points out in the below post.

myk is obvscum but I don't think he'd be so aggressive if he were God so that isn't particularly useful.

The further into this game we play, the more likely God is to be caught - recruits as well as the CL's lose if god dies, so it is indeed a very finely balanced setup, assuming us agnostics play competently enough to pick out recruits/CL's.

Oh yer hehe we're agnostics aren't we

Theory be said, I've never been one to play that way. For example, I try to play the same from one game to another (with the exception of changes in playstyle). Even in a game like this, if I were a CL/recruit/God, I'd probably do the same thing I'm doing now.

I agree, this is exactly how you'd play if you were God

For whoever asked about Jebus' meta, I believe it was DGB and Jebus himself, I dunno I guess he acts in a kind of "innocent" way in general (not an insult). That's why I see him brandishing the holier than thou townie stick I get suspicious.

All in all very happy with my vote on him, he's more likely to be God than the other scum, mykonian.

[ortolan]

You are quite eager to show that they shouldn't listen to me, because it is stupid, and I'm aggressive scum: you have seen me play as town and as mafia, and this is clearly not how I play as antitown.

unvote vote ortolan

Actually your play in this game matches neither your scum nor town meta as I've seen them, so that's not going to help.

You actually had a very insubstantial case against me, everything above this was just quoting me even though some of it wasn't even in quotation marks.

Anyhow; you've OMGUSed me (even though I wasn't voting for you)- what type of scum do you think I am???

Looking at pacman now to see what's incited the controversy.

[ortolan]

Well yes pacman is entirely useless, a hypocrite and an obvious active lurker. Is it consistent with his meta or what?

[ortolan]

Can someone answer my question:

@Pacman: I hope you don't think I'm giving you a free pass just because I say you're following the town meta I have on you. We need unity here.

Is pacman's active lurking consistent with meta or wot???

[ortolan]

No, but it's the main point against him from what I see presently

[ortolan]

yay! i've finally caught up. sorry it took so long(most of you with your enormously long posts...grrr) There's SOO much here. I'm going to do this piece by piece, so please bear with me.
okay there was something i noticed while i was reading through that i had a question on and that no one said much of anything about.

I could vote for Zakeri (although I don't even remember the post that apparently makes him scummy), or Pacman,

because DGB is awesome.

bolded for emphasis. What exactly are you saying there? Were you not voting her because you think she's an awesome player? Or were you saying something else there?
That probably isn't anything at all but it kinda stood out to me. Then again, i was reading that around midnight so that could have some bearing on my perception of it.
Honestly though, i really don't have any idea of which way to be looking. So if there's something that you want another opinion on, by all means please point it out.

I was referring to the fact that I could see where DGB was coming from with her case on pacman.

Also; there is zero justification for random-voting at this stage in the game, al_kohaulec. Tell us who you find scummy, at least.

[ortolan]

At best we've won. At worst we didn't get rid of an Agnostic.

The first case is a fine outcome. The second is bad for every one of us (agnostics) who doesn't get recruited tonight. However I can't argue with the logic, claiming cult membership would be a logical move for a reasonably intelligent cult leader or God. Fuckit.

Unvote
Vote: qwints

[ortolan]

I just re-read mostly the posts after my latest post to get a feel for whether qwints is telling the truth in his latest claim or not. Just as he made up that he was recruit initially, he may also be fabricating his latest cult leader claim.

660 was particularly scummy- voting a "useless" player, who clearly isn't God, and on the back of his lurking to boot.

Agreed that Bloodmoney looks culty for 704 also.

Basically qwints needs to be hammered immediately before day ends.

He's either cult leader or God. If he's God we win. If he's cult leader and telling the truth then tomorrow we will have 18 players total- 2 cult leaders, maximum of 4 cult recruits, and God. 7/18. Thus agnostics will still have a majority. Thus we can still God-hunt tomorrow. Hammer him immediately please, the fact he hasn't had more votes pile on him by now increases the chance he's actually God.

[ortolan]

And also I fully acknowledge that hammering a cult leader not only increases agnostics' chances of winning, but all the other factions apart from qwints' also. But this is good for everyone except qwints.

Hammer.

[ortolan]

What does that mean?

[ortolan]

I honestly feel the fact qwints hasn't garnered votes at a furious pace indicates he may still be God. If qwints is telling the truth, then *all* the other factions apart from his own have reason to vote him, so I'm suspicious of everyone not jumping on him even quicker.

The fact that others can WIFOM us by claiming cult leader is the least of our worries- it's not like this game was ever going to be smooth-sailing for any faction.

[ortolan]

The game doesn't end when Nietzsche dies

Someone hammer please

[ortolan]

yer except

1) you might be lying

2) Jebus might be Nietzsche

3) he might have been targeted by another cult and recruited to the third, hence your recruit attempt failing

4) you are essentially asking us to reward your bad play in getting caught out as a cult leader by not lynching you

someone hammer him, wow

[ortolan]

might I also add;

There are two things you might be lying about- being a cult leader rather than God and having targeted Jebus.

Secondly, the only thing voting Jebus will accomplish at this stage is a likely no-lynch, as there is no way you're going to get a majority in this time. Thus you want us basically to not use our lynch today, which is far more likely to fuck over agnostics as we will then be in the minority or around even numbers with cult day two (which makes it impossible to lynch God).

[ortolan]

Someone better be around to hammer him before day end or else Nietzsche could do far worse than night-killing him tonight

[ortolan]

Yes, someone hammer. No, don't waste the town's one-shot kill on qwints. Unless Nietzsche is absolutely certain that he's found God earlier, he should not use it because if he's wrong, losing the Agnostic majority = losing the game.

No, I mean, if, mysteriously, no-one turns up to hammer, I suspect it's because none of the culties are on his wagon because he is indeed God. That's why it's wierd that the votes haven't piled on by now, because if he isn't lying about being a cult leader, everyone should want to get rid of him regardless of their faction.

[ortolan]

Now you'll just get the culties to lurk DGB

[ortolan]

1 gawd
1 jew leader
2 jew recruits
1 islam leader
2 islam recruits
1 christian recruit (haha!)

no christian recruit. I highly doubt qwints was lying about being unsuccessful in recruiting night one, but even if he was the "christian" part is defunct- the recruit would have lost their win condition and is "praying" for recruitment. Also, the fact God didn't night-kill Jebus last night (i.e. because he already knows he's not Nietzsche despite qwints tipping him off) means he's pretty much guaranteed to be a cult leader. I'm pretty awesome for latching onto his scumminess earlier, aren't I. This is good as it indicates very low chances of lynching a cult leader if we attack someone else.

Also, Jahudo, I already explained why cult leaders busing God (not the other way round, though) makes no sense. If the cult leader ever dies they've lost anyway, plus if they get God lynched by busing them they've lost. So no, they have no reason to bus God.

I might have a look at Jebus' posts to see if he went out of his way to defend anyone in common with qwints.

[ortolan]

Out of all the people who just hopped though, he clearly tried to push the case - but not till after qwints' CL claim. Obviously, agnostics have a lot of reason to want to kill a CL, but I could see him as a rival CL. The fact that his vote was last minute (L-1, and less than 24 hours from lynch) also makes me think he could be God who realized there was no way to save his CL already. Of course; with deadline approaching, I could also see a possibility of agnostic who just didn't want a no lynch, but I don't think so.

His cult leader claim changed the dynamics entirely. It made his lynch far, far more desirable, to everyone but him. If I was culted killing a recruit would have been quite useful to me, also. Plus him revealing he had initially lied about his claim increased the likelihood he was actually lying at a further level, and was in fact God.

I think the likelihood that qwints was lying and Jebus is God is actually very low- if he was successful in getting Jebus (God) lynched instead of him he would lost anyway.

Also, the fact God didn't night-kill Jebus last night (i.e. because he already knows he's not Nietzsche despite qwints tipping him off) means he's pretty much guaranteed to be a cult leader.

No. It more likely means that qwints was trying to fool us and Jebus is God.

Why?

I'm all for lynching Jebus. He was distanced from by a lot of people yesterday.

What about the possibility he's a cult leader and we will lose by doing so?

[ortolan]

I have just determined that Zakeri is the lynch for today.

Vote: Zakeri

You know you want to.

[ortolan]

Why does Zakeri only have one vote? I wasn't joking, guys.

[ortolan]

The fact the Zakeri wagon only has two votes appalls me

Why aren't you voting,

scum

?

[ortolan]

ortolan's posting seems to have rapidly degenerated.

Time may or may not prove this statement true. What do you think of Zakeri, zwet?

[ortolan]

Misrwp. But finding God is a long shot. CL's are easier. Besides how can we distinguish god-scum from CL-scum?

Stop being scummy please. If we lynch another cult leader we insta-lose. Well I do. Not sure about you.

I may be confusing you with Jebus.

We've already worked out that Jebus is virtually guaranteed to be a cult leader. Your insistence on attacking him also pretty much guarantees you are either the leader or a recruit of the other remaining cult.

Now rewinding...

I do. I've been looking back over the phase change and what happened before it.

It's practically undeniable to me that Jebus is a cult leader based on what happened during phase change, and how Quints reacted towards him not being recruited. I don't think he's either God or a Cult leader because God didn't hit him, and I think he's a Cult Leader because Quintz wouldn't venge-out God just because he was being lynched.

DGB is also very noticable for placing her vote on someone other than who she believed was god. She voted, unvoted, and revoted Jebus while fingering others, even after listing Jebus blatantly as "Not God". It's very likely the DGB is a cult leader and has found Jebus to be another cult leader. It's also very possible if Jebus was Recruited that DGB was in fact the other Cult Leader that Recruited him, thus leading him to join the other cult leader.

I'll have to take another look back to see who's god from all of this, but it might lead to Pacman, who DGB seems to have been distancing.

I have no qualms with either of these conclusions. Funny thing is I still think you're God. God of course knows who his cult leaders are and would be perfectly fine with announcing suspicion of them.

Especially

in this context where both God and the town are actively trying to avoid lynching cult leaders anyhow (God needs to kill Nietzsche to win, Town needs to kill God to win- either has to happen before we kill a second cult leader or else the other cult wins). Plus it serves your goal of flying under the radar until you can kill Nietzsche very, very well.

I'm leaning towards Pacman as god, due to blatant distancing from DGB.

Oh, looking for people who DGB has distanced from sounds just dandy.

I have just determined that Zakeri is the lynch for today.

Vote: Zakeri

You know you want to.

Gah! I hate, HATE mind readers.

unvote, vote: Zakeri

DGB was keen to get her vote off and onto Jahudo though, who to me looks incredibly obv-town:

Again I'm willing to lynch any of the aborted day 1 wagons.

unvote, vote: Jahudo

Pacman is too obvious and easy a target (lurking, lacking contributions etc.) and I think Zakeri was taking advantage.

I am calling out Zakeri as God now. Agnostics please vote for him, don't wait until tomorrow by which time I may be culted and trying my best to prevent his lynch. Also if you pretty much notice all his posts today solely relate to God's thought process. There's nothing to indicate he isn't God.

[ortolan]

Zakeri needs more votes at this point for them to be useful

[ortolan]

um the fact DGB-cult and Jebus-OBVCULT are on mykonian's wagon is enough reason to pile off it in droves.

Please vote Zakeri and I'll give you candy.

[ortolan]

I have a player specific meta against qwints now: he has a scumtell. He, like many players before they learn better, mentions his scum buddy by name in his first post.
This scumtell is quite common for newer players, and is mostly useful in large games where the odds of a person typing another person's name are lower.

link to him naming his scumpartner with one other player in his first post where he names a name

The linked game is not a large game (thus making it more likely independently he would have mentioned his scumbuddy by name in his first post due to fewer players being able-to-be-mentioned). This makes your sample of one even less valid.

God did not kill Jebus last night. That means that Jebus is not Nietzsche, nor is he a Xian recruit. (God would've killed him just to make sure.) Later in the game anyone who is interested in figuring out who Jebus recruited night 0 can look though his past games and see what other player in this game demonstrated proficiency in his previous games. That will be who he recruited if he is a CR. (probably one of Jahudo, tajo, packman, or Silver)

Here you implicitly imply/acknowledge Jebus is a cult leader rather than God- "those interested in figuring out who Jebus recruited night 0" despite concluding he is in fact God.

I think that it is much more likely that zakeri is being set up by Jahudo or Jebus.

You haven't justified this.

There is a real chance that qwint naming Jebus as unrecruitable was a wifom gambit.. he had nothing to lose at that point.

From a theory perspective, what did qwints have to gain by WIFOMING us into choosing to lynch him or God? He would lose if either lynch went through.

he never mentioned the possibility that Jebus was god. That was his false premise.Note how complete his maths are in subsequent posts. He could not be unaware of the possibility that Jebus was god. He had to keep god alive, but he also had to keep himself alive. Naming Jebus as unrecruitable would keep N. from vigging god.

Um, if he took into account that Jebus would be God he had to assume he was lying about trying to recruit Jebus (because he, as a cult leader, knows who God is and would not try to recruit them). So this point isn't valid.

4. Players with hidden information (scum) are much more likely to name each other.
5. All of my chief scum suspects named Jebus multiple times.

So you're saying the cult players are likely to attack the other cult players e.g. Jebus.

um the fact DGB-cult and Jebus-OBVCULT are on mykonian's wagon is enough reason to pile off it in droves.

Please vote Zakeri and I'll give you candy.

I take your premises ("DGB-cult and Jebus-OBVCULT") with significant doubt.

Why? I already went into great detail on why Jebus is a cult leader. By extension DGB pushing for his lynch means she is probably of the other cult.

And you're eliminating mykonian based on...

I don't even know why mykonian was ever being voted. Can someone give me a summary of the supposed case against him?

And if Jebus is a CL we don't want to lynch him. I think it's a good bet he is because I still think he was asking god to kill someone he thought was Neitsche.

It's true. The likelihood of Jebus being a cult leader and us insta-losing by lynching him is still very, very, very high. I am also not inclined to believe it was a gambit by qwints to name God because firstly that would be 100% pointless for him achieving his win condition and secondly I probably would have expected to see at least some outrage, however muted, subtle or concealed from another cult player at qwints trying to "get God lynched" like that, but I didn't pick up on any.

[ortolan]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9816 Assassin in the Hospital

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9752 Serum and Steel

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10023 Carbon 14

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0 Crush Mafia

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9756 Carbon 14 (different one)

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9768 Night Watch

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9419 Kingdom (replaced in)

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9865 RealTime mafia

There honestly might be more I didn't post/can't remember. I'm not sure.

[ortolan]

But I fear all you could conclude from these games is that I am crap as town and good as scum whereas I consider my town play has improved substantially since a lot of them (I say this because you have specifically commented on the fact I won as scum in one of the games).

[ortolan]

I have a player specific meta against qwints now: he has a scumtell. He, like many players before they learn better, mentions his scum buddy by name in his first post.
This scumtell is quite common for newer players, and is mostly useful in large games where the odds of a person typing another person's name are lower.

link to him naming his scumpartner with one other player in his first post where he names a name

The linked game is not a large game (thus making it more likely independently he would have mentioned his scumbuddy by name in his first post due to fewer players being able-to-be-mentioned). This makes your sample of one even less valid.

the small sample size problem is always present in mafia. My method of scumhunting always relies upon small shifts in probability.

Of course the other problem with this theory anyhow is that Jebus not being God is perfectly compatible with your theory of qwints. He may

1) Have genuinely recruited Jebus and was just lying about not having recruited him. In which case he is naming his scumbuddy (highly unlikely).

or

2) Have tried to but not been successful in recruiting Jebus. He knows he is a form of scum, like himself, thus he votes him, naming something like his "scumbuddy" (reasonably likely).

Of course if your "naming scumbuddy" theory isn't correct (also reasonably likely), then in the case of the second point (the first is still highly unlikely), it's very, very plausible he indeed tried to recruit Jebus, failed, knows he's an enemy cult or Nietzsche and thus wanted to vote/lynch/kill him, irrespective of whether he usually vote scumbuddies in his first post. So you are flawed in that your determination of his meta is poorly founded, plus even if you are correct he may still have been complying with your meta on him if Jebus isn't God.

to me it feels like they are. It is hard to justify intuition with honesty. If you like I can do a PBPA and rationalize it (and make it sound good) but the source of my conclusion was intuition.

You'll need more than this, sorry. You can't fall back on "intuition" when you're talking about doing something which looks likely to lose us the game.

he was going for his "secondary win" of god not dying even if he does. It is a reflex action of scum... even though the win conditions in this game are different, the instinct to distance from his scummate remained.

He openly acknowledged his desire to protect God. He might be a unique (and special) player but I have to assume cult leaders would play like I would i.e. being indifferent to whether they or God were lynched, because they lose either way.

there were 20 players in the game. 20-1 = 19. If he was taking his knowledge of who god is into account, the base number would've been 18 instead of 19. The point is valid.

Big, big assumption. I've made mistakes like that when I forgot take into account whether I'm calculating probability from someone's perspective or in general like that before.

4. Players with hidden information (scum) are much more likely to name each other.
5. All of my chief scum suspects named Jebus multiple times.

So you're saying the cult players are likely to attack the other cult players e.g. Jebus.

"name" means typing his name into a post. I did not say they attacked him.

That may be true, but it's not relevant to the point I was making. Change to "So you're saying the cult players are likely to

name

the other cult players e.g. Jebus." It doesn't mean Jebus is

God

no, you wouldn't see a damn thing because they wouldn't be sure how to respond. Then they would quickly lynch qwints, exactly what happened. qwints was absolutely correct that the optimal move for agnostics was to lynch Jebus. Notice how that didn't happen.

You possibly have an argument for saying that lynching qwints was wrong in

retrospect

but at the time we definitely did not know that qwints was a cult leader rather than God, and I for one thought there was a decent chance of it considering he'd already lied once about the full extent of his scumminess.

[ortolan]

^^ ???

Just calling it as I see it. Meta'ing me for this game would be stupid as I am obviously town anyhow.

[ortolan]

no but seriously I don't understand the motivation behind the "har har I have no respect for you roflmao roflmao" content of the above post.

[ortolan]

Adel and also please reply to my latest little number and tell us why you why you're so happy to lynch someone, who, is in all probability, a cult leader

[ortolan]

if you don't believe that developing a player specific meta has utility, then I doubt that your town play has improved much. You probably still believe in "universal scumtells" like that "errors in logic" = scuminess.

Haha, no, this could not be one iota further from the truth (I have argued that general behavioural tells [rather than, for example, testing hypotheses about scum] are highly retarded in previous games and usually a justification scum give). I was insuring myself against you yourself using such a poor application of meta, which I anticipated by you mentioning 4 of my games and commenting on only one "ortolan survives as scum", which is very out of place and furthermore meaningless unless you were doing something very simplistic like simply gathering my win ratio as scum/town. The bare fact you were compiling my meta when I was not under suspicion alone was out of place, actually.

have fun trying to tell me, or anyone else on the internets, what to do. I was honest, and I certainly can produce the bullshit that you seem to be looking for, but I feel that would waste everyone's time. I've spent thousands of hours playing mafia over the last two years, and I've done a lot of rigorous research. That is the kind of experience that builds good intuition.

Ok. The problem is, even if your intuition is flawless, and I would have no idea not having played with you before, there is no reason to think you are not simply a player of the other cult trying to secure a win.

continue assuming that other players play as scum as your do, and your town win record will continue being horrible. I started off being a terrible town player, but look at my last 10 or 15 or 20 games as town.

Hey, I think you're misquoting me here. I exaggerated when I said my town record was "terrible" (self-deprecating and all), but thus far I have proven myself better as scum. And the reason I was unpleased with my town play is not due to failure to catch scum but because I often get mis-lynched when town. Ironically this isn't necessarily my fault, and may be due to others' poor application of "behavioural tells" which we both know are crappy and which you, ironically, assumed I used.

do you have something better with your expert scumhunting skills?

What does this mean?

please read my posts again, and try to think more clearly this time.

You said "scum are likely to mention one another by name". Cult leaders (if the other cult leaders figure out who they are) will then do this to each other, as well as God, as well as their recruits, assuming this tell is even valid. So why does Jebus have to be God?

this was a test. if you were thinking intelligently about this game you would point out that we would be in the exact same situation if we lynched Jebus and he was a CR... but if he was not a CR and was revealed as being cult recruit then we would absolutely know that qwints was a CR and not god.

I was an agnostic on day 1 (still am). I think I was pretty open about this, which you would have seen if you'd read properly, but one could not deny the possibility of being recruited night 1. Thus, as an agnostic, the best move was to lynch the person with the highest chance of being God (and lynching qwints even if he was CL was still pretty good)- if I succeeded, I won, if I failed I might be a recruit the next day. It's like you assume I was just completely oblivious and didn't think this through fully to begin with but unfortunately you're incorrect.

but if he was not a CR and was revealed as being cult recruit then we would absolutely know that qwints was a CR and not god.

And why would this be more useful on a day 2 with a potential 10 scum players out of 18 (if Jebus wasn't a cult leader)? It's you that's not thinking things through.

[ortolan]

You had insufficient time to read my post and then reply, plus my points are all valid, so I must conclude that you are attempting to troll.

[ortolan]

than a CR (less than 1/18 chance).

You cannot be serious. So you think the likelihood that qwints was actually telling the truth about Jebus is less than 1/18?

it should be clear by now that ortolan was recruited last night, and is trying to prevent god from being lynched.

You are pretty much throwing my suspicion of you back at me, but mine had more basis to begin with.

Adel is gambiting cult trying to lynch opposing CL to win, attempting scum gambit of "act so arrogantly it must be

obvious

I'm correct"

[ortolan]

fyi, sadly, ortolan is consistent in making spammy wall of words posts as both town and scum. Hopefully he will learn (for when he is town) that typing long posts like that decreases the signal:noise ratio, makes it harder for other townies to follow and keep up with the game, and acts to suppress total player activity. Comparative scumhunting gets much easier when player contributions are closer to even.

Again, I've come under fire for using sparse, gut style posting before so just because a lone wolf disapproves of my present style will not make me change.

Again I aspire for some sort of consensus:

Adel, your meta-ing ability may be brilliant but that doesn't change the fact you may be trying to use whatever reputation you have to manipulate town into lynching a CL, Jebus, when you are of the other cult. The fact you ignored that possibility in your case on Jebus and subsequent replies to me doesn't sit well with me. Is there any reason why we should believe your opinion on Jebus is genuine?

[ortolan]

a "lone wolf" with two scummies for 2008, fyi "professor mafia" and "best performance by an individual".

you might want to consider changing.

When I know I can no longer get mislynched by morons for stating gut without my reasons, I will play like you do. You probably get away with it because everyone considers you a well-known player who can do what they like. Reputation determines a huge amount of the game.

See, DGB assumes I am in the wrong although we are pretty much on opposite but pretty much by definition equal sides of the WIFOM-wagon (in fact I would say my position is better supported but I guess that's to be expected). I claim it is unlikely qwints would have bused God so heavily, you claim he would have. You say I am scum trying to throw town off the scent of God, I say you are cult trying to get the other cult lynched to win.

The thing is I don't see how you could legitimately be so sure of the case of Jebus. You may be right, of course, but a good townie would be apprehensive about doing something so risky methinks.

[ortolan]

"well-known and good" player if that wasn't clear

[ortolan]

ortolan isn't seriously considering my case, obviously, and is just trying to punch holes in it. I expect another wall of words from him shortly.

Why the repeated attack for this? We don't all have the luxury of reputation.

[ortolan]

ortlan was recruited last night. He has learned how to appear townie enough to be reliably targeted by scum.

Proof your meta-ing ability is imperfect (or you are scum).

[ortolan]

Just to fully refute your meta-gathering process, all 3 of those games I was night-killed had extremely special circumstances:

in 701 I was a confirmed mason (claimed day one due to poor play)

Carbon 14 I was actually targeted by scum for a night-kill because I was the most scummy and they were trying a gambit where one scum would act scummy, the other would bus them and use the townie points to try to win (didn't work)- you can see them say this at the end of the game.

in Night Watch (although I played well as town that game imo) I got killed because the hider said he would hide behind me and WIFOM'ed scum into night-killing me thus confirming who the last scum was (I believe).

It is cool from reading your wiki page that you actually invented several of those setups, but I must say I see no evidence your meta-ing is effective based on what you determined of me.

[ortolan]

oh...AND I spotted this the first time but not the second, Alpha Centauri I was indeed night-killed...by the vig

Glad we cleared this up.

[ortolan]

(Although I didn't play badly that game either, it was due to lasting suspicion on the person I replaced).

[ortolan]

I am a bit hesitant to reply because I'm expecting the wall o' text accusation again, but:

Wait why has the focus suddenly turned to whether or not I got recruited? You are blatantly trying to discredit me purely because I called into question your logic and motivation for the Jebus wagon

1. you were active and obviously pro-town yesterday

Don't think play is deviant between days 1 and 2. I was pretty let down no cult thought I was useful enough to recruit though. Struck a big blow for my self-esteem, it did.

2. your level of motivation in attacking my case

The likelihood of you being gambitting scum has risen substantially. Let's assume you are scum for a moment. You know who God is. You don't want him lynched, nor do you want yourself (if you're CR) or your cult leader lynched. Therefore Jebus isn't God or your cult leader. Therefore Jebus is very, very, very likely to be the other cult leader. You win if you kill him. You are obviously an experienced player. Why should we not be hesitant about voting with you in light of the decent possibility you're cult?

3. that you haven't appeared to consider my case, or the remote odds that Jebus is CR and another CR targeted him and took so long to claim his result, as compared to qwints trying a gambit with a chance of success (extorting the other cultists, wifoming the town into thinking that Jebus was another CR) with information (name of god) that he actually had

I have. I don't agree with it. I think the chance that qwints was busing Jebus as God is 20% or less.

4. that you have concluded that I am scum without building or presenting a case that I am scum

I am getting increasingly certain you are, but if anything it's certainly no worse than the way you responded to me- meta'ing me for some reason then going down this divergent path of "hey, even though I never mentioned this before, ortolan must be cult because he's attacking my case".

[ortolan]

cult recruit*

[ortolan]

I am uncertain on Zakeri and was partly fishing for reactions with those ploys.

I think it is more likely that Jebus is cult leader than Zakeri is God though, and lynching a cult leader is auto-lose so I've justifiably put more work in derailing something which is more likely anti-town in my estimation.

[ortolan]

I am a bit hesitant to reply because I'm expecting the wall o' text accusation again, but:

Wait why has the focus suddenly turned to whether or not I got recruited? You are blatantly trying to discredit me purely because I called into question your logic and motivation for the Jebus wagon

1. you were active and obviously pro-town yesterday

Don't think play is deviant between days 1 and 2. I was pretty let down no cult thought I was useful enough to recruit though. Struck a big blow for my self-esteem, it did.

but earlier

today

you were insisting that you were obviously pro-town.

What is inconsistent about this?

because a better explanation for my motivation and activity level is that I think I have one and only one shot of lynching god before I become a Christian Recruit.

Wait, what?

and what are your odds that Jebus is CR?

The inverse of that. So, 80% or greater. I don't think any other possibilities are viable e.g. qwints actually have recruited Jebus and lying about not having done so.

which was entirely the point behind qwint's gambit!

This is Wine in Front of Me, yes?

[ortolan]

an "obviouly pro-town" player is an obvious target for recruitment

You'd think so. Well then, assuming the cult leaders agree with my self-assessment I'm an obvious target for recruitment tonight then.

the odds are unacceptably high that I will be recruited by both the Jews and Muslims tonight, making me a Xian recruit, which is auto-lose for me. I have one day to find and lynch god, and I'm trying as hard as I. That is why I have a high motivation level. If I were CR or cult I would lurk through this day.

Ironically by stating openly you make it far less likely. Cassandra paradox, or something.

and what are your odds that Jebus is CR?

The inverse of that. So, 80% or greater. I don't think any other possibilities are viable e.g. qwints actually have recruited Jebus and lying about not having done so.

80%

! Wow! I have never had that level of certainty in a mafia game with this many alive. What were the base odds for Jebus both being a CR

and

being targeted by another CR for recruitment?

For someone with an apparently competent grasp of probability it is bizarre you would suggest this is the correct probability to work from. In fact the relevant probability is whether any cult leader would attempt to recruit someone who turned out to be another cult leader. The chance of this is 1/9. (18 possible recruitment choices, excluding oneself and God from the 20- 2 cult leaders possibly out of this 18 i.e. 1/9). That's not at all remote (and please people, that is not what I am suggesting the probability is that qwints was telling the truth, which is far far higher).

YES, IT WAS A WIFOM GAMBIT! The desired result was:
1. for qwints to not be lynched
2. for agnostics to not consider lynching god.

We can discuss whether this was correct post-game. For now I don't buy your case.

[ortolan]

LOL

[ortolan]

100% subjective ;D

[ortolan]

I don't get what you're asking in 1198.

another question you skipped:

are you arguing that I am recruited or that I'm a CR or an inferior player as town to you? Or are you just trying to stop me from lynching god?

Determining which of us is better based on one game is silly, I don't think it's in issue. We may both be town and one or the other of us might be wrong. However I would expect you to be more conscious of the ready possibility of us mis-lynching a cult leader if you were town, so I'm thinking of the decent possibility of you being scum.

[ortolan]

please explain how you reached this conclusion

Scum, now fully aware of the potential for cross-recruitment and thus a wasted recruit, are now less likely to target you. That's assuming you're not recruited already and assuming you are indeed viewed as a useful cult player by the cult leaders.

[ortolan]

What do you think my current alignment is? Please state odds.

I'm not sure if subjective probabilities like these are meaningful but I'd say about 50/50

[ortolan]

not really, I just couldn't be bothered re-reading the whole thread to determine which is more likely. The fact of your position on Jebus alone set off alarm bells, consider it a behavioural tell++

[ortolan]

but you have worlds of motivation to attack my case against god. you have demonstrated that you are typing from perspective of established and firm conclusions, not stopping to consider that my case has merit (never mind the character attacks and statements about what my alignment is). You have shown no motivation to find god.

You have lots of motivation to protect and defend your god.

please claim cult recruit now please, so we can move on.

You were by no means the first to suggest Jebus was God. I have several ways of winning- lynching God today, dying tonight and having Nietzsche kill God, or being recruited tonight and winning with colt. I have one sure-fire way of losing today, mis-lynching a cult leader.

he saw qwint's gambit for what it was on day 1

why can't ortolan see it today?

Taking into account possibility does not equal thinking it is likely.

[ortolan]

between the two viable choices, qwints bussing God and qwints telling the truth about Jebus, I think the latter is roughly four times more likely.

[ortolan]

the way I see it is (1/9 chance of targeting a CR * chance of deciding to claim honestly the

second

time) vs (100% chance of knowing god's name and going for last min gambit)

that 1/9 is what I am hung up on, whereas I can see the potential of going for that gambit being closer to 8/9

That probability is wrong again. Taking into account the notion of conditional probabilities in Bayes' theorem, you have a higher likelihood to have claimed to have targetted a cult leader in the first place if you did target a cult leader rather than not having targetted a cult leader. The two events, attempting to recruit a cult leader and claiming to have done so in the position qwints was in, are not independent of one another probabilistically.

what amazes me is that you never paused to consider that I might have a case. you just kept on pounding your keys.

You are 20% likely to be right, as I said. I think it's more likely you are scum and will persuade an intellectually lacking town to lynch the last CR and win though.

[ortolan]

Adel, ortolan, could you do us all a favor and try to summarize what that huge argument was just about in <300 words? Thanks. I did read through it all, but a lot of it just flew by me as unadulterated ferocity.

I didn't mean my posts to come across as ferocious. I was enjoying arguing with Adel. We were kind of going in circles but I didn't mind at the time.

bullshit. you are cult, and you jumped on the wagon on god in the hopes of "proving" that he is not god.

Hang on, why is DGB cult? My argument for her being cult is contingent on her being keen to lynch Jebus who I think is a pretty likely and obviously so cult leader. Plus DGB did vote Zakeri as well (but changed her vote reasonably quickly and the wagon never compiled any speed for the whole time she had her vote on anyhow).

@ X: whate we need if for as many people as possible to read the exchange between ort and I and summarize it.

Agreed.

and demonstrates a lack of intellectual honesty

No, Adel's attempts at character assassination are poor.

He has an unrealisticaly high expectation of Jebus being a CR (

80%

), which does not square with his demonstrated knowledge of probability.

That is a subjectively determined probability, it is not derived from anything. This criticism is stupid.

He ignores my questions (and I don't ask many) while demonstrating that he has the time to keep pounding on the keys.

What? Which?

He keeps on calling me scum, without being able to point to anything that indicates that I am scum, other than that I am trying to lynch Jebus, who he has a flase degree of confidence of being a CR.

You are doing the same to me in fact. But my surety that Jebus is not God after my original determination that he was unlikely to be was contributed to by you insisting he was God and not taking into account other possibilities (and I poked several holes in your case e.g. your meta on qwints was derived from one game and even if it did apply it was still consistent with scum naming their recruits other cult leaders, thereby not at all guaranteeing Jebus is God.)

IF

he had targeted a CR during N0, all he had to do to avoid a lynch was claim CR with a CR target like he did, but with enough time before deadline to start a second wagon..

He lied the first time. He would not have lied the first time had he successfully identified another cult recruiter.

Um, no, I still would have lynched him. And actually, it just occurred to me something that I can't believe I didn't realise earlier. One of the most horrible problems with your case is that, to us, on day one, he may well have been telling the truth, and in fact found Nietzsche. The only reason we no longer think Jebus is Nietzsche is because he didn't die night one. So lynching Jebus would have been an exceptionally mentally deficient thing to do.

Why do you think that I could be scum again? What evidence do you have that I could be scum?

no. while we were exchanging posts, you never paused to consider that I might be right. You pulled that number out of nowhere late in our exchange.

For fuck's sake, I stated multiple times that the probability of your theory being correct, objectively was 20%. I think it is less true now because I view you as incredibly scummy now.

Likelihood of Adel being cult raised to 99% and Jebus being rival CL changed to 99%. I am stating this more for my own satisfaction though because I fear town will fall for the appeal to authority. I await loss by Adel-cult-victory.

[ortolan]

Adel, ortolan, could you do us all a favor and try to summarize what that huge argument was just about in <300 words? Thanks. I did read through it all, but a lot of it just flew by me as unadulterated ferocity.

I didn't mean my posts to come across as ferocious. I was enjoying arguing with Adel. We were kind of going in circles but I didn't mind at the time.

bullshit. you are cult, and you jumped on the wagon on god in the hopes of "proving" that he is not god.

Hang on, why is DGB cult? My argument for her being cult is contingent on her being keen to lynch Jebus who I think is a pretty likely and obviously so cult leader. Plus DGB did vote Zakeri as well (but changed her vote reasonably quickly and the wagon never compiled any speed for the whole time she had her vote on anyhow).

@ X: whate we need if for as many people as possible to read the exchange between ort and I and summarize it.

Agreed.

and demonstrates a lack of intellectual honesty

No, Adel's attempts at character assassination are poor.

He has an unrealisticaly high expectation of Jebus being a CR (

80%

), which does not square with his demonstrated knowledge of probability.

That is a subjectively determined probability, it is not derived from anything. This criticism is stupid.

He ignores my questions (and I don't ask many) while demonstrating that he has the time to keep pounding on the keys.

What? Which?

He keeps on calling me scum, without being able to point to anything that indicates that I am scum, other than that I am trying to lynch Jebus, who he has a flase degree of confidence of being a CR.

You are doing the same to me in fact. But my surety that Jebus is not God after my original determination that he was unlikely to be was contributed to by you insisting he was God and not taking into account other possibilities (and I poked several holes in your case e.g. your meta on qwints was derived from one game and even if it did apply it was still consistent with scum naming their recruits other cult leaders, thereby not at all guaranteeing Jebus is God.)

IF

he had targeted a CR during N0, all he had to do to avoid a lynch was claim CR with a CR target like he did, but with enough time before deadline to start a second wagon..

He lied the first time. He would not have lied the first time had he successfully identified another cult recruiter.

Um, no, I still would have lynched him. And actually, it just occurred to me something that I can't believe I didn't realise earlier. One of the most horrible problems with your case is that, to us, on day one, he may well have been telling the truth, and in fact found Nietzsche. The only reason we no longer think Jebus is Nietzsche is because he didn't die night one. So lynching Jebus would have been an exceptionally mentally deficient thing to do.

Why do you think that I could be scum again? What evidence do you have that I could be scum?

no. while we were exchanging posts, you never paused to consider that I might be right. You pulled that number out of nowhere late in our exchange.

For fuck's sake, I stated multiple times that the probability of your theory being correct, objectively was 20%. I think it is less true now because I view you as incredibly scummy now.

Likelihood of Adel being cult raised to 99% and Jebus being rival CL changed to 99%. I am stating this more for my own satisfaction though because I fear town will fall for the appeal to authority. I await loss by Adel-cult-victory.

[ortolan]

Argh, that's annoying

something interesting I just stumbled across:

Good point Cyberbob

This is what I've gleaned from very active play since my join date. I doubt anyone at random would have similar activity (I have like six times as many posts as him).

source:http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 69&start=7 (a thread in MD)

so ortolan makes Appeals to Experience in MD, but does not respect experience in this game.

1) I have already stated that I don't believe experience is necessarily a good indication of skill. I also stated that there is an effect that the perception of experience by other players actually makes one more successful in the game- from my own experience people I've played with before rarely try and lynch me but more importantly in general they're less likely to get lynched as town and scum, thus automatically having some effect on their win ratios. This also does not mean that there isn't a correlation between experience and skill in general, even if one controlled for this effect of "perception of experience by others", but one should certainly not assume as much in any individual case.

2) Perhaps more importantly in this case, I was replying to someone who I'd recently had a falling out with in a game and there was a high mutual lack of respect between us (hence him attempting a troll in that thread). I couldn't be bothered with conflict so just countered his argument meekly. Even irrespective of this you could compare it to the "even if" aspect in debating- he cited my join date compared to the other guy's as evidence that I had similar experience to him and thus my statement was invalid. I replied saying "well if you're using experience as a judgment of ability, I do in fact still have more experience in the fact that I've likely played more games than him, even if our join dates are around a similar time".

Your meta-technique of making completely absurd generalisations based on one post is seriously lacking.

[ortolan]

"but more importantly in general they're less likely to get lynched as town and scum"'

should read

"but more importantly in general they (more experienced players) are less likely to get lynched as town and scum."

[ortolan]

Incorrect. I again disagree with pretty much everything you've said but we are completely going around in circles at this point.

[ortolan]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 48#1561548

I have inferred from this post, a la yourself that you must use one of these for every game. Please show me your spreadsheet/graph for this game.

[ortolan]

Also,

A player that is targeted for a nk in 4/8 games is slightly more likely to be targeted by a cult in this game.

It's ironic for someone who accused me of not answering questions (I still don't know what they are), that you would re-iterate these figures to try to argue for my cultiness, even though I already said very explicitly what the facts behind these figures were and why they did not support your conclusion that I am a popular night-kill choice for scum in the slightest (and in fact contradict it very heavily- one of them I was in fact killed by a vig so that is clearly not being killed by scum and all three others had completely out-of-the-ordinary circumstances).

[ortolan]

Screw this.

Unvote

Vote: Jebus

Claim please.

[ortolan]

and by that I mean tell us who you recruited nights 1 and 2, and we shall get confirmation from them. Don't try anything else, you'll just get lynched for being God.

[ortolan]

...this was a much simpler solution all along.

[ortolan]

Well, shit.

If that was lynched, God has just won. I just hope you've miscounted, Juhado.

Yeah, I'm Friedrich :/

Sorry, I just got caught up again

Damnit. It is looking increasingly likely Adel was right. I will re-iterate: Tell us which cult leader you are, and who you recruited nights 1 and 2, or die. You are not Nietzsche. Why are people unvoting him based on that claim? Don't be retarded, he wasn't night-killed last night.

[ortolan]

I say we tell Jebus to use his one shot-kill on whoever he thinks is God the most, I'd say Zakeri personally. Otherwise lynch him- if he doesn't use his night-kill today he'll have to use it tonight anyway because God till target him. So let's vote on whom she should day-kill

[ortolan]

Scum can't day-talk, can they?

[ortolan]

This mass unvoting is amazingly scummy, now for why anyone else who fails to comply with the following strategy is scum:

the dominant strategy at this point is to force Jebus to do one of several things by way of voting him to be lynched if he doesn't:

If he is Nietzsche (which I highly, highly doubt) he needs to use his kill (on Zakeri would be fine thanks) because he will have to use it tonight anyhow. If he fails to do so, lynch.

If he admits he is not Nietzsche but a cult leader, then we make him claim his two recruits. Unless they verify him (they will want to because otherwise he dies and they lose), then he dies for being God.

Simple.

Re-vote Jebus, scum.

[ortolan]

Jebus, use your ability ASAP before the votes pile back on you. You might not get a second chance.

[ortolan]

I'm not sure I know enough useful on Jebus from that game to meta him. Zakeri was good as the assassin/SK though

I have referred to Jebus possibly in this game as having an "innocent" meta. I'm not sure if that's meaningful. He may have protected me because I thought he was town based on his suggestions whereas some others didn't.

[ortolan]

Here's what I think. We lynch alvinz(who replaced Mask Man) today (

unvote, Vote: Alvinz/Mask Man

), I kill either mykonian or Juhado tonight.

Anyone (other than you culties) have a problem with that?

Um no scum. Insist one more time that you are going to wait until night to make your kill and someone needs to hammer you. Or else, as I said, you can just claim cult leader and be confirmed.

What did Adel encrypt btw?

[ortolan]

Why should I not care even if you don't?

[ortolan]

I'll at least wait for Gurgi to respond to my request before I make any sort of move.

Also, again I stand by the lynch first, and my kill second. Note, it's still possible to lynch God tomorrow, agnostics will still be one more than cult in number, assuming one kill at night. It's not as last-chance as you're making it out to be.

Tomorrow God = teh gone.

Today's our last and only chance, and we have less than 24 hours.

Vote: ortolan

Right now I'm leaning towards Adel and ortolan being scum. I've been looking at players that mostly avoided lynching qwints (until the end when it was inevitable), and players who pushed the Jebus lynch.

Have you been reading this game? Be honest. I was the strongest detractor of the Jebus wagon until it became clear no other candidate was viable especially as Adel was able to make me look like cult-defending-God (not that I'm suggesting in retrospect this means Adel is scum).

I would still prefer a Zakeri/looker lynch.

Vote: Zakeri

mykonian could lurk less however.

[ortolan]

Unvote
Vote: Zakeri

Yeah, that was stupid.

Didn't you say the same about me (ortolan is definitely scum) albeit you didn't have the guts to back it up with probability? My weighting has been changed in the face of new evidence, like a good townie's should.

[ortolan]

I fail to see how Jebus being N. and Jahudo being agnostic would be any reason for a townie ortolan to change his opinion of me.

Even then, why would I care? I never thought you were God so never wanted you lynched.

[ortolan]

and I always advocated the Zakeri wagon...

[ortolan]

oh so I was rite about Adel initially, 2ez

Adel was probably trying to distance from Looker-God in the knowledge the lynch was impossible, and Looker-God killed her to be sure.

Vote: Zakeri

Btw I'm somewhat offended I still have not been culted despite my activity day 2. And my above words are said without even bothering to work out whether agnostics are still the majority.

[ortolan]

So God would rather silence someone trying to lynch him than WIN THE GAME? I don't know if I can believe that.

This is an open setup. Jebus already confirmed he is an agnostic. God is clearly a complete moron, because they could win instantly by having killed Nietzsche last night. Therefore we need to look for extremely lacking-in-grey-matter players.

BTW, your second comment is noted. It sounds painfully like cult-baiting, which means you= cult.

Neiggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Or assuming I'm still not recruited it's genuine, yeah?

[ortolan]

Actually no I'll get you to extrapolate on what this means:

[quote="SP (1429)"It sounds painfully like cult-baiting, which means you= cult.[/quote]

Cult baiting in what sense then? Out with it.

[ortolan]

it may be possible to resolve this seeing as it's an open setup

Mod: which resolves first, God's nightkill or cult recruiting?

[ortolan]

I would guess at this point that Adel was cult beforehand though, no other explanation for her obv-scum tunneling on me ;P

[ortolan]

Um...oh wait, the cults are in the majority now aren't they

9v7

Who else is going to show they're culted by voting Jebus (it's the most useless thing ever).

[ortolan]

Also, Agnostics have the majority Today. There are (maximum) 3 people per cult plus God. That makes 7.

No. There are a maximum 4 people per cult plus God. Leader and up to three recruits. They got to recruit on night zero.

[ortolan]

oh yer, I'm a moron, never mind.

[ortolan]

Ah ok.

So we don't know, but I'd still say Adel was a recruit from Night 0 or 1.

[ortolan]

Wut? He has like 3 votes or something. I wouldn't call that a wagon per se.

The amount of manipulation people are trying to pull is amazing.

Unvote, Vote: zwet

for being the worst.

Please. "Pulling manipulation" is not a reason to vote someone in this setup. I also don't like you just casually trying to paint zwet and X as cult earlier in your post.

Considering Jebus already dropped the ball so to speak, I agree with the sentiment that it is too much pressure. I mean, it is scummy to expect him to find scum, but pretty worthless to actually scum hunt this way since we only have one shot.

Wait why is it scummy to expect Jebus to find scum?

I admit I like PIP's analysis in 1543 and I had _exactly_ the same thoughts on DGB: I found her obvious cult-claims almost godlike but this is tempered by knowing she's way, way, way too intelligent not to have killed Jebus for the win, even if she's crazy enough to want to stay in the game despite being able to win instantly.

Then Alvinz posts a couple one-liners, jumps onto my wagon, and shows rather obviously (IMO) feigned ignorance about the mechanics of the game ("There's a cult for every god?").

Bear in mind we're dealing with a God who failed to claim the free win. If he's God then I doubt this ignorance would be feigned.

You also haven't told us why you yourself aren't God PIP

1. You claim that AA is ignorant of his powers.
2. You claim that AA knows that he wants Jebus to be killed.
3. There has been a Godkill each night.

For all we know the mod could randomise it.

DGB's response to PIP, to pretend he is recruitable, as is DGB's interaction with tajo and tajo's suggestions PIP is obvtown.

I would like a PIP lynch very, very, very much

Vote: PieIsPopcorn

[ortolan]

why does that make me cult?

he replaced a prime candidate for God-hood and I think DGB's attitude towards him is deliberate WIFOM (joking about recruiting him).

[ortolan]

Also, you don't seem to put much focus on Double A until after PiP comes in attacking Alvinz and analysing all players. Also, in the post that you voted him in, it looked like your prime reason was "You never explained why

you're

not god." Which is a horribly bad reason to vote somebody. Show me some evidence.

This is not true. Double A seemed a good candidate for being God before being replaced, so there is the obvious carry-over effect of his predecessor. Plus I didn't like him going into lengthy analysis of every player but with the presumption he wasn't a target somehow. A whole bunch of people immediately say how good his analysis is but don't take into account whether he himself may still be God (suggests cult-rallying). And we have DGB's constant cracks about recruiting him- I suspect an ulterior motive.

DGB's post can be interpreted 2-3 ways.

1. I'm directly on the right track (IE- Alvinz is God) and she's trying to WIFOM us off it.

2. I'm not directly on the right track, but I'm close (IE- Zakeri/Indigo is God), and she wants us to believe #1.

3. I'm not even close to being on the right track, but DGB wants to reward me for the effort I put into Godhunting.

Care to tell us which it is DGB?

I'll analyze al's post later. Time for school.

And I don't like this because it states the obvious while still carrying the presumption he isn't God.

Considering Jebus already dropped the ball so to speak, I agree with the sentiment that it is too much pressure. I mean, it is scummy to expect him to find scum, but pretty worthless to actually scum hunt this way since we only have one shot.

Wait why is it scummy to expect Jebus to find scum?

Burden of Proficiency is why it is scummy to

expect

Jebus to find 1 scum out of 16.

Burden of proficiency has 0% to do with the argument for why Jebus should lead the lynch. Burden of proficiency is an argument that if a good player repeatedly fails to find scum in a game they probably are scum. The argument with Jebus is "he is proven Nietzsche and thus the only confirmed agnostic/town player we have, so if he leads the lynch at least we know it's not scum-drive". They have nothing to do with one another. The reason I quoted that passage to begin with is that I couldn't really make heads nor tails of it.

1/16 are horrible odds though.

These are the same "objective" odds of finding God regardless of whether Jebus leads the lynch.

[ortolan]

scum-driven* above

[ortolan]

... I don't see any of these players saying that I can't be God because I posted a good analysis. Both Tajo and Al were against my lynch before I replaced in. Pacman also hated the zwet case. Also, the cults don't really need to be rallied. The cults can just follow their leaders/fellow cultists at this point.

The fact they've been defending you all along doesn't counter the possibility that you are God and they are cult at all- they would presumably have found an excuse for defending/not voting you regardless.

Meh, I'd missed that he replaced into the game before the day ended. However, you continue to assume that the lack of God kill is a result of stupidity, rather than simply missing that Neitzche claimed God. Isn't it possible that alvinz simply wasn't aware of this fact?

I consider missing the claim to qualify as stupidity in this setup, especially if you are God.

Due to the difficulty of proving a negative, and the fact that as a replacement I can not provide explanations for the actions of my predecessor with absolute certainty, that is the worst reason to suspect somebody, especially at lylo.

SP said the same thing and this is very misleading- it is clearly not the only reason I suspect you of being God.

That is a possiblity, sure. Examining LG's mod meta, he never makes clear whether or not in such a circumstance he would randomize the kill or have there be no kill. (Although he always says YOU, as in the player, will submit the kill. He never states that there will be a kill if not submitted, which seems like something he would bring up if it was the case.) It seems to vary from mod to mod, but I find in my personal epxerience that there being no kill is more common.

In fact, it would be more convenient. As Gurgi would not only have to remove the CLs in the case of God not killing, it would be extremely unlikely that he would have the opposite policy for CLs and God. Therefore, since he was having to randomize the God kills, he would most likely also randomize the cultings. This would not only mean removing God, and members of the cult, it would also mean removing the CLs from the opposing cults from the randomizing process. Extremely inconvenient, to be sure.

And the kill itself- I find it rather unlikely that a randomized kill would just HAPPEN to hit Adel, one of the most talkative and persuasive players in the game at the moment. That looks so much more like an intentional kill to me that it's insane.

Now, this argument is far from definitive. COULD the kills be randomized? Sure. COULD the kill and cult selection utilize different methods if they fail? Sure. I find the latter relatively unlikely, just due to how overcomplicated the system would become. This is all based on how likely we find the modding method, and is therefore useless discussion in nature, since we are not the Mod. I personally find, as a result of the reasons I listed, the method that a kill isn't made more probable. If you don't, then you will not find the argument particularly persuasive. It all depends on information that can not be obtained by the town.

I'm pretty much happy to accept all of this. Which means we're back to God being a moron rather than a lurker not playing properly.

Why in the world would cultists distance from, much less buddy up to, God on what amounts to lylo? That is utterly illogical. I also notice a curious pattern in some of your accusations, but more on that later.

They cannot be "distancing from" and "buddying up to" simultaneously. DGB is actually doing neither. She is joking about your win con changing, which implies firstly that you are agnostic presently and secondly that she wants to recruit you. Two layers of WIFOM which I've no doubt she would be smart enough to try to use to conceal the fact you are actually God. In fact without this explanation I don't see her stressing her cult recruity desires so much, as it doesn't otherwise accomplish anything. Please do tell of this pattern in my accusations, I hope this is good.

So, by this vote, you are stating that you find my godhood more likely than that of both Alvinz and Zakeri. And that you feel that obv-cult DGB and zwet would wagon God in a lylo situation.

I've not committed myself to anything yet.

@ PIP's 1587, please tell me why zwet is cult leader. I don't recall a convincing case on him (I looked back and I certainly don't see one today- I'm not even sure if one's been attempted ever).

[ortolan]

vote: zwet

Explain, scumbag.

Reporting in.

I'm gonna be busy till as late as Wednesday, but I've got something to say in the meantime:

16 are alive. There are 6 cult and 1 god out there. I'm Nietzsche. Agnostics are still the majority by a bit, and this may continue for a little.

So here it is - we seriously need to regroup.
To everybody:

Of every current player, which two do you think is or could be God?

Personal for me was already posted, but to repost it - either

Alvinz or Mykonian

mykonian knows how to play mafia, ergo he is not God. There is 0% chance he would have missed the opportunity to instantly win. If anyone has issue with this statement I'm sure I can find evidence to prove this.

According to PIP's 1604 alvinz could be God, so he's obviously a better choice. This is contingent on PIP himself not being God/cult though. With Looker's latest vote though he jumps back up to being possible God-scum.

[ortolan]

Unvote:
Vote: alvinz

[ortolan]

Fine

Unvote

Jebus may decide where my next vote goes, I'm too caught up in the WIFOM

[ortolan]

PIP or alvinz though

[ortolan]

She unvoted:

unvote

Gah!

and it's really hard for me to gauge whether this is a double or single bluff. i.e. whether she unvoted in order to give the impression alvinz is actually God when he isn't, or unvoted because we'd think she was trying to give the impression alvinz is God when he isn't- but in fact he is

I think it's pretty nullish.

Remember the deadline is drawing near though. If we're going to lynch someone else we need to get that bandwagon going fast, but it's quite possibly already too late.

[ortolan]

and I will add a vote in the next day or two if a bandwagon on someone else I like doesn't start.

[ortolan]

I agree with the drunk guy. As long as we agnostics lynch people that are not obv cult leaders, we can still win.

Um, no, we can't.

I don't care who we lynch

Vote: zwet

[ortolan]

Until there is either a majority of Muslims or Jews, we can prevent them from lynching anyone. That way we can all have a (possible) win condition.

No, they can just gang up and lynch an agnostic e.g. zwet.

[ortolan]

btw everyone claiming zwet is cult and using that as a basis for their vote is probably cult- I don't see him as likely to get recruited and don't think they genuinely believe he is.

My vote is just because he's as good an option as any.

[ortolan]

Today, we would like to kill pacman. He has shown very little in the way of pious potential.

Vote: pacman

I'm not sucking up to you though. Take it or leave it.

[ortolan]

I am cult, and I have information that the Islamic recruit action didn't go through on nights two and four. Therefore, we the Jews are still in the majority, and we only need 1 or 2 of the remaining agnostics to vote with us (and subsequently get recruited) to win.

Follow my lead.

Vote: DGB

[ortolan]

We have our cult leader and three recruits, they have a cult leader and two recruits (night 5 was also a mis-recruit for them).

We can certainly recruit you, it's going to take three days to eliminate their whole squadron (assuming DGB is not their leader- I don't think she is) and we can recruit a new agnostic each day, as long as you confirm yourself as such by voting with us.

[ortolan]

populartajo is obviously already recruited. I know you've screwed up your recruiting at least 3 times from our quicktopic in conjunction with the tone of your posts in the game, and some of my own reasoning I don't intend to make explicit yet.

If you try to lynch a Jew today, you will at best have equal numbers of Muslims and Jews tomorrow (and if the Muslims have mis-recruited even one more time that we don't know about, then we still be in the majority even then. "Agnostics" who voted against us today will

not

be treated kindly if we are still in the majority tomorrow, with us even going so far as to not recruit rather than recruit them, and allow them to lose along with the Muslims).

[ortolan]

populartajo is blatantly already cult though and his attempts at deception are not appreciated. al_kohaulec you are currently the leading candidate for recruiting.

[ortolan]

btw, if it wasn't clear from my previous post, currently

we

are in the majority and even if one of us dies tonight the worst case for us is tomorrow we may be

even

numbers with the Muslims. So basically, siding against us today as an agnostic makes the game unwinnable for you.

Vote DGB/tajo please and let's get this game over with.

[ortolan]

The reasoning is in part based on our quicktopic. I can't post it without approval from the players on our team, some of whom aren't in the game anymore.

It is not guaranteed but it is very likely (hey, how many people alive can you identify as actually being in DGB's cult?)

myk I hope you are going to vote DGB soon

[ortolan]

Woah woah woah. Gorrad just claimed Muslim? For reals?

I think that's all of them. We need mykonian and our other player(s) to vote DGB and we can burn these cretins!

[ortolan]

I'm agnostic. You're not. Therefore, I vote for you. Am I missing a game mechanic here?

If you aren't lying (which I doubt) then yes, you are. Agnostics can no longer win until they are recruited (and their goal was never to kill cult leaders/recruits anyway, especially after one has died). So back to your shrine please.

[ortolan]

Sorry, you just outed your whole team. We haven't even gotten started voting for you

[ortolan]

You have outed your team, too, and you have fewer members.

Incorrect. Most of them aren't even voting you yet

[ortolan]

You don't need to know anything to lose

[ortolan]

It sounds like the Jews have more recruits, or at worst, equal, so this would balance out the numbers more. Plus, I'm still hesitant to vote DGB because I've suspected her as being the CL since D1. I'm not voting for a lynch that ends the game.

Oh the irony.

Where is X, you don't win by not even showing up to spruik your wares.

We have, uh



Join us.

[ortolan]

the baklava is tempting, as is the first belly dancer but in these dire economic times who you gonna call?

al_kohaulec, btw, I literally was totally fibbing about their recruitment attempts (how could I possibly know what nights their recruitments attempts failed?) If anything they either have the same number of recruits as us currently or one more (100% true, we have two dead to their one). Also DGB is blatantly not the cult leader as evidenced by her blatant claims to be cult from day 3??? onwards, and calling out of our cult leader, who is X. So if you vote DGB tonight I promise to randomise which of the people voting DGB, who is not currently in our cult (I'm not saying who for obvious reasons) we recruit. That is the best outcome for everyone because 1) it is fairest, and 2) it prevents us giving away to the other cult who we're going to recruit, thus screwing up our plans.

[ortolan]

anyway, one more vote 2 hammer and we've got a bar mitzvah party tonight!!!!!

[ortolan]

^^^ sorry, that was lame, I know

[ortolan]

You can feel the sweat dripping off DGB's burkha

Vote DGB, hp[leaves], stick it to the man!

[ortolan]

Natalie still trumps your belly dancers and all the pistachio flavoured treats in the world

[ortolan]

[ortolan]

gentiles, you're missing out on this:

[ortolan]

if you don't eat pigs, and we don't eat pigs, why not not eat pigs together?

[ortolan]

but seriously, we have the nukes

[ortolan]

I agree, wouldn't happily ever after be such a fortuitous conclusion to this game (especially for symbolism of the Middle East)?

/me pleads with Lord Gurgi (after all, all those Christians have ever done is molest children)

[ortolan]

If the Jewish CL is ousted, and the Islam one isn't, not to mention orto commenting that the Jews are weaker than the Islamists right now, it only makes sense that siding with the Jews = almost certainly lose, siding with the Islamists = win if recruited.


DGB, with multiple agnostics out there still, and your CL unkown (assuming it's not you), how about postponing the X lynch one additional day to convert an extra one of us, so we can get as many players winning as possible? I don't know how many agnostics are siding on either side, but I think there's at about 3 agnostics left, and it seems more Jewish cultists are out in the open than Islamist cultists, so you probably know (almost) who all the agnostics are.

To be fair, I only said that because in your previous post you said you should side with the cult with the

fewer

recruits, so you've contradicted yourself there. I wouldn't be surprised at all if you were already Muslim.

And neither side winning at this point is determined, it just depends entirely on who the pool of agnostics votes for.

hp[leaves] come on, aren't you curious?

[ortolan]

no, because I suspect you of being Muslim

one moar vote for DGB!

[ortolan]

good game guyth

[ortolan]

Really wish he hadn't actually confirmed that I was CL.

This had no bearing on the game. We were outnumbered. You should have protected your recruit (zwet) the previous day instead of hiding for no reason. There was no reason to hide from the other cult when they didn't have a clear numerical advantage (and even if they did you're pretty much unavoidably screwed at that point anyway). Also, if you'd actually helped with a display of power at the start of day six we were (more) likely to win. I already had mykonian and Indigo Herron acting like potential Jews.

I was sad that I to tried to appeal to al_kohaulec's emotion when he stated a preference for the more numerous cult, then have him change his mind (when ironically we were in the minority) and vote for the "minority" cult.

[ortolan]

same You were Jew at that point, right?

[ortolan]

I'd forgotten that I'd actually been trying to lynch Zakeri, who turned out to be God, pretty much all of days 2 and 3.

[ortolan]

Also, question to the cult leaders. Why did you recruit who you did? Like, zwet and MafiaSSK for example...

[ortolan]

Adel: btw, the night I got recruited was after zwet died. I think we were screwed at that point anyway.