DP12 JeepFest Mafia GAME OVER

[Mr Stoofer]

Yay, my first DP game!

~consults ouija board~

Vote: thesilentspeaker

.

Yay, my first vote in a DP game!

[Mr Stoofer]

I don't want to stifle discussion of tactics but surely DP's point is as simply as this: although the theme is JeepFest, you cannot assume that someone is/isn't in the game because they are/aren't at Jeepfest.

And while he didn't say it, it must be a pretty fair bet that you can't assume someone is/isn't scum because the are/aren't at Jeepfest.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm always suspicious when someone is accused of lurking (or similar) and then posts very soon afterwards. So

FOS: Vesuvan

.

[Mr Stoofer]

Whoa! Vesuvan's up to 9 votes over the course of a weekend!

I think I was one of the first say that Vesuvan looked suspicious but I'm worried about the speed at which he has accumulated votes -

(a) It does the town no good to have a day 1 lynch in just 3 pages

(b) The fact that he has accumulated votes so quickly suggests that the scum have jumped on his bandwagon.

Anyway, Vesuvan, you need to claim now.

And

unvote: the silent speaker

.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm not sure I understand the PeaceBringer bandwagon that's beginning to form. Could someone explain it to me? Is it any more than the fact that he changes his vote without explanation?

I didn't like SaberKitty's post where she voted for Vesuvan because it didn't seem to have any logical basis. And I like post 95 even less. After jumping on the Vesuvan bandwagon unconvincingly, now that bandwagon is running out of steam, she jumps on the newly forming PB bandwagon.

Vote: SaberKitty

.

[Mr Stoofer]

So, we have a bandwagon on Vesuvan that gets up to 9 votes (LoudmouthLee and SaberKitty respectively being the ones putting him one vote away--and I acknowledge there was a vote count error before Loudmouth's vote.)

Then a new wagon forms on SaberKitty which gets to 8 votes (PBuG putting on the last).

And now there is some momentum going towards Olio.

I see some legitimate points made, especially against these last two, but, I've never been a follower. Prefer to blaze my own trails as it were, and what I see right now is

one

person on all three of those wagons, with very little reasoning. Flagrantly bandwagoning as it were.

Vote: Someone

Two good points here. First, the speed of the Vesuvan and SK wagons is cause to doubt that they are scum. Second, scum are likely to be on the bandwagons (especially the quick ones). Given the impending deadline I favour an

unvote: SaberKitty

and a

vote: Someone

.

[Mr Stoofer]

Eeeehhh No, Someone explained his votes. Check PBug's posts just for fun. You'll see what I mean.

I've just done this and the result is startling.

Unvote Someone. Vote: PBug

.

[Mr Stoofer]

As I understand it, PBug's head is in the noose at the moment since he got to 5 votes first.

[Mr Stoofer]

Even though it's his birthday today.

[Mr Stoofer]

3 1/2 hours to deadline. I don't want this game to go on haitus until PBug gets back. But nor do I want PBug lynched without a chance to say something in his defence.

[Mr Stoofer]

So many people seem convinced that we have more than 1 killing group. They seem content to rule out the possibility that we have had 1 kill per night, for 2 nights, suggest 1 killing group.

The different MOs could just as easily be different members of the group doing the killing.

FOS: all those who seem to be sure we have more than 1 killing group

. How do they know?

(*) This is my first mafiascum game with more than 12 players.

[Mr Stoofer]

Sorry, that post doesn't make sense because I tried to edit it halfway through and made a mess of it.

I accept that there is a very good chance of multiple killing groups in this game.

What I was trying to say

, was that some people seem to be

certain

that there are multiple killing groups. And there is only one way they could know that.

As for the thing at the end of the above post, I was going to suggest that maybe the fact that I haven't been in a big game on mafiascum means that I am insufficiently experienced to offer an opinion on this subject. But then I realised that was crap because I've read enough games to know that multiple killing groups are very common if not ubiquitous.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote: Someone

. This is based on an analysis of yesterday's vote counts.

1. Someone was one of the people on all 3 of the big bandwagons (Vesuvan, SK, PBug) yesterday. So were others, including... er, well, anyway, moving on...

2. More importantly, as the deadline approached, he was the subject of 1 of the 3 bandwagons, the other 2 being Olio (pro-town) and PBug (pro-town). Were the other bandwagons driven by scum trying to save their buddy?

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm here but I need a proper read through and I won't have time to do this properly until Monday. I'll post my thoughts then.

[Mr Stoofer]

I still think that Someone would be a good lynch for the reasons I've already given: mainly because he was the "3rd bandwagon" on day 1, and we know that that the 1st and 2nd bandwagons were on townies, and also because he was bandwagonning yesterday (although so were many others...). Another advantage of a Someone lynch is that it would give the town lots of useful info based on the voting patterns on day 1.

However, there is something much more spectacularly scummy to my mind, which is Axelrod's vote for Commodore Amazing, allegedly based on the silent speakers' analysis. I certainly don't understand the silent speaker's analysis and I'm fairly confident that Axelrod doesn't either. Axelrod's post 240 doesn't reveal any level of understanding of tss' analysis and his post 248 owes nothing to the analysis. Agreeing with an analaysis you don't understand is scummy. So,

unvote: Someone

and

vote:Axelrod

.

[Mr Stoofer]

Commodore just happens to be the one of those players that tss picked and others are following without, as best as I can tell, considering the argument too carefully.

Yup. And I'm happy with my vote on the worst offender.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm gonna switch my vote.

Axelrod's long post on the last page somewhat redeemed him in my eyes. More significantly, I'm getting a bad feeling about Nox. Her pursuit of rolando seemed odd to me since he was by no means the worst non/contentless poster (why not pursue Leonidas?).

And I really didn't like this:

While I dont think that Fuldu is that scummy, I'm still unsure about Meme. Just because she's voting Someone at the moment, doesn't mean she can't be anti-town. Either two mafia families, or an SK?

Seems far too confident that both MeMe and Someone are scum. If it is an honest post then Nox knows too much (as only the scum do).

So,

unvote: Axelrod

(but IGMEOY) and

vote: Nox

.

[Mr Stoofer]

I make that Nox and Someone equal at 4 votes a-piece. And Nox would be lynched if the deadline came now because she got to 4 first.

I had my vote on Someone today and yesterday and would not be distraught with a Someone lynch. But I am surprised by the recent groundswell of support for a Someone lynch. Commodore Amazing and Axelrod's votes had no comprehensible explanantion (unless I missed something ). And I don't understand LML's point either. (I don't understand the bit about "being that you're scum..." Is this part of a reason to think Someone is scum? Or is this based on an assumption that he is scum?)

Anyway, the fact that an apparently reasonless bandwagon is building up against Someone, at a time when Nox was looking like a candidate for a lynch, makes me content with my Nox vote.

[Mr Stoofer]

The bandwagon on me is stupid and I'm not going to dignify it with a claim. Post 406 makes no sense and Leonidas' stomach is not a reliable baromoter, given that he is by far the worst lurker is the game and ought to be the one getting lynched.

I'm annoyed by the fact that Leonidas is getting no flack at all for his appalling lurking. No-one else is voting him so a vote this close to deadline seems pointless

Unvote Nox

simply because there is no point at present (she's not going to get lynched at deadline now). But I think that a lurker is as good a lynch as any on day 1. Since there is no point voting for Leo I'll

vote SaberKitty

instead.

[Mr Stoofer]

Is there anything to the SaberKitty wagon besides just lurking?

That's my first reason, but there are also the reasons for her bandwagon on day 1, which were never answered satisfactorily.

[Mr Stoofer]

An awesome game, and I really enjoyed reading this game after I died. Thanks for modding, Dragon Phoenix.

[Mr Stoofer]

IMHO if it had been anyone but MeMe cathcing him, Axelrod's gambit would have been immediately seen for what it was.