A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Magua]

No one denies me my RVS vote. I've waited a long time to do this:

VOTE: Percy for never making me an investigator.

That said,

Raise: Twilight Sparkle

because I'm rather confident than my reads and their reads will be similar, which would lead to similar usage of the governor ability unless they're scum, in which case, woo, caught scum.

[Magua]

THIS IS NOT RVS. SCUM WILL SEEK TO RAISE OTHER SCUM.

Don't you *want* scum to raise other scum?

[Magua]

It would seem to me more scummy that people bw raise another person. Self raising doesn't seem inherently scummy in the slightest. Inb4 "you're scum for not thinking what you did is scummy"

Raising yourself tells us nothing about you. Three days from now, it will still tell us nothing about you.

Raising someone else tells us nothing about you *at this point in time*. Three days from now, it may tell us quite a bit about you.

Self-raising isn't scummy per se; it is, however, pointless for the town, which is what makes it attractive to scum.

[Magua]

How many VIs do you count in this game, Magna?

[Magua]

How many VIs do you count in this game, Magna?

Based on personal experience and the player list as it is constituted now I see 1 player I consider a lock VI and 3 border-line cases who I might get the pass. There are 3 players I have no direct knowledge about who are new enough that they might also get the VI / newb pass.

Your point in asking?

Because I am leery of people who say "Policy lynching a VI D1 is the smart move" when there's more than one VI.

GreyICE thinking that DGB was serious with the day vig claim is worrying. However, GreyICE's #61 with the statistical rebuttal to Magna is so incredibly townie I had to go and change my pants.

[Magua]

GreyICE is town.

Pretty sure Shadow is town.

DGB doesn't make sense. As town or as scum. I have personal experience with this from Stars Aligned II. Nulltelling her.

$10 says Hasdgfas is faking his post restriction. It's cute, but it's also nonsensical from a setup POV. Undecided on scumminess; not enough information yet. Nulltell.

Don't like Benmage. Don't like "Mow down all the VIs." Don't like DGB's #166 treating it like a towntell.

This thread requires Percy, xtomx, and Feysal posting. And more Mikujin. And...well, too many others. But let's start there.

[Magua]

@Mod:

The raise vote totals seem to be incorrect for anyone with more than one vote.

~ Fix'd, thanks.

Magua: do you think Benmage's VI policy/DGB treating it as a towntell is scummy, or do you simply disagree with both of them? Why would hascow fake a post restriction as town?

At this point, I disagree with them both. DGB I find scummy even when she's town (again, Stars Aligned II); BenMage I'm more confident that I can read in the longterm, so I'm more willing to let him slide.

As for why fake a post restriction: Scum reason would be fakeclaiming. Town reasons would include "Because he can", "Because he wants to", and "Stir up conversation". I've seen townies gambit worse D1. But none of the previous ASoIaF games have included anything similar, even though they could've.

nonsensical from a setup POV.

*opens mouth, revealing lack of tongue*

Setup. Not theme. I get the theme.

[Magua]

Okay Magua, lets debate setup.

Last setup had namecops, and 2 mafia godfathers who namecopped to their fake claim. For this to be plausible, hascow would have to namecop to that particular fake claim, seen that he was the godfather with ONE PARTICULAR character, and faked a post restriction based on that ONE CHARACTER. So if he's scum, he's either hella lucky, or just dumb and will get lynched day 2/3 easy.

Scum know their fakeclaims. So your post boils down to, "If he's scum, he knows his fakeclaim, and is faking a post restriction based on it." To which, I agree. But it's not like that's three different pieces that all magically fell together. I have every single ounce of confidence that if hasdgfas is name-copped, he'll come up as Ilyn Payne.

So he's a FUCKING DUMB day 1 lynch.

Which is why I'm not voting him.

DGB is scummy for how she's prosecuting the case, because I think she's smarter than this. It's an easy case to make, but it's full retard for the town to even consider it. "Ooh, look, I'm proactively scumhunting!" The fact that she didn't even bother to look up the game sticks in my craw - that's fucking lazy, which is more a characteristic of scum trying to throw shit around than town trying to scumhunt.

Also, LAL. It can go wrong, but I'm fucking feeling it.

My problem with a DGB lynch at this point is that it gets no information if she's town. Everyone'll say, "Well, DGB was acting super scummy. Had to lynch her." and there we'll be. But DGB always acts super scummy. It's a nulltell for her. It's like Jack scumslipping D1. Much better to vig her than lynch her.

But let's explore this. Hasfgdas is voting for Shadow instead of DGB, even after DGB makes the post about him faking a posting restriction before.

@GreyICE:

First, I think Shadow's town. Do you think Shadow's town?
Secondly, how does hasfgdas not voting DGB fit in with your theory that DGB is completely lying her ass off?

[Magua]

1) don't do town lists too often anymore unless replacing in or good reason. I read towns posts not lynch em. I can do a scummy list if anyone cares, but the tldr is dgb is top. Plus I answered shadow question in earlier post.

2) Dun know dun care. She is reading scum to me. And your WIFOM theory is just bad.

You are not concerned with the part of mafia that is "trying to convince other people that you're right"? If your DGB case has merit, do you not expect that hasfgdas would be the first to recognize it?

Unrelated to the DGB/GreyICE/hasfgdas brouhaha, I don't like Diddin's #132 . It's mostly attack without adding anything of value, but then caps it off by saying DGB is the largest town read, which makes my head hurt. I read this as "attack chesskid, attack GreyICE, buddy DGB".

UNVOTE: Percy
VOTE: diddin

[Magua]

Sure, I expect he'll have input into what I said. After he, y'know, reads the thread and comments on it. He hasn't POSTED since then.

On the contrary, I specifically checked that he had.

DGB's "Once, he faked a crippling restriction where he claimed to gain powers by following it. He was lying scum" is #217.
hasdgfas posts in #223, even *responds* point by point to what DGB said, does not vote her, leaves vote on Shadow.
You (GreyICE) start in #225.

My case is convincing, and this is pretty sad. Magua, question time (since that's the new black): If hascow shows up and votes for her in the next post, would you vote for her based on what you've read?

I find your case to be unconvincingly. I do not find hasdgfas' actions so far to be town, and I especially do not like his vote on Shadow. If he were to show up now and vote for DGB, I would ask why he didn't in post #223.

[Magua]

D1 townlists without concrete info behind them are pretty lol.

I'm not seeing the DGB scum case, and Greyice pushing so hard on something so weak/null is weird.

@Theme/Flavor-
I haven't read any of the books, etc. and I haven't taken the time to read the prior games in this series (nor am I very motivated to do so). It sounds like some people are expecting multiple scum teams based on those games? Could someone who actually played the prior games please summarize anything mechanics-wise that is likely to be carried over from those games to this one? Thanks.

There were two scumteams in the last game, which you can read here: Clash of Kings Mafia

Briefly: Many weak town PRs. A different punishment/reward that can be voted onto someone every day (like governor, today).

Quick overview of Storm of Swords: http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/A_Storm_of_Swords

Themewise, the Starks are certainly a mafia group (see OP). The Greyjoys could be a possible mafia group, but speculating on whether there's two mafia groups and/or an SK is kind of pointless before D2.

So your set-up argument revolves around Mod-meta specific to the Game of Thrones mini and Clash of Kings?

Yes. I assume things are the same unless I have reason to believe they are different. Eg, I also assume that every single scum has been given a fakeclaim.

Um what? Are you saying Cow must vote for DGB since DGB said he was faking a restriction and thus scum?

No. The question was directed at GreyICE, not at hasdgfas. I'll summarize:

1. GreyICE finds DGB scummy for things DGB said about hasdgfas.
2. hasdgfas, who saw and responded to the things DGB said, is not voting DGB. (Assumption, here, is that hasdgfas does not find what DGB said scummier than Shadow, who he is voting.)
3. I ask GreyICE how #2 affects his opinion on his case.

Do you find diddin’s post scummier than Cow’s posts since you are voting for diddin currently?

Yes.

[Magua]

If you're as confident that GreyICE is town as it seems you are, why are you still raising Twilight Sparkle?

Same reason as when I raised them to begin with. I think their usage of governor will give me a greater ability to read them.

Grey has already stated he wouldn't use the ability, so raising him doesn't help at all.

ITT having townreads is scummy.

ITT, having an unjustified townread is scummy.

[Magua]

You want a potential vig to kill someone you believe to be town over someone you believe to be scum?

FoS

You're raising someone who has stated they want to policy lynch VIs, which is pretty equivalent. Please explain why one is FoSed and one is raised.

[Magua]

Anyone bother asking for justification?

I bet I could make a town list of the playerlist. If I was asked to justify some of them, I'd say F----U.

Otherwise... Magua. Make a town to scum list of the playerlist and Justify all of them....Yep

I will summarize for you.

DBG has actually been my biggest townread so far in this game, don't know about anybody else.

I don't like Diddin's #132 . It's mostly attack without adding anything of value, but then caps it off by saying DGB is the largest town read, which makes my head hurt.

ITT having townreads is scummy.

So, he gives a townread on DGB. I state that I can't understand how someone can have a townread on DGB. He responds with "OMG you think having a townread is scummy."

In other words, he dodges justification and tries to deflect the suspicion at the same time, instead of, y'know, explaining why he thinks DGB is town.

That is what makes him scum.

[Magua]

hasdgfas' posts make my head hurt. Specifically #281.

Re: governor. Governor should be used to stop the lynch of someone the governor thinks is town. It shouldn't be wasted "just to get it out of the way", because it's a powerful piece of information that can be used later, and wasting that simply throws it away. If the Raise power was a 1-shot vig instead of a governor, I do not think anyone would argue that using it would be anti-town. I see this the same way.

Yes, scum could use it to save their buddy. But to plausibly do this, the scum-governor would have to be posting townreads on their buddy to begin with -- if a governor were to use it on the lynch of someone they had posted a scumread on, there'd be hell to pay. Forcing that sort of thing ahead of time is very, very, very handy for the town.

Pray tell, what's wrong with playing rather reserved? What's contradictory in pointing out a few things I've a distaste for and not following it up with a vote? I'm in no rush to make knee-jerk decisions based on isolated incidents that ping my gut.

We're nowhere near a lynch. Your vote is not set in stone. Vote. This goes for Xtoxm, as well.

[Magua]

Back from my V/LA –

Also Magua never said he thought Sparkle was town. He just said he thought their reads would be similar, and as such, Sparkle would use the governor ability in a way Magua likes.

Magua clearly implied that by mimicking his own thought processes (which Magua implicitly is claiming is a Town perspective) his read on Sparkle was Town. Attacking him for not explicitly saying such when it was clearly implied by the writing and Raise vote itself is scummy.

Diddin is correct. I don't have a townread on Twilight Sparkle. I do believe that if Twilight Sparkle is town, they and I will have similar reads (eg, we both have a townread on GreyICE). So if Twilight is town, I would expect they would use the governor similar to how I would. If they use it otherwise, then that's a good indication for me that they're scum.

tl, dr: I'm using raising to get a read, not using reads to determine who to raise.

[Magua]

Once again, if you think you're going to bully me into doing what you want, you can think again. I've got a spine, and a head on my shoulders. I'll vote when I'm confident in the one I'm making.

Voting is how town lynches scum. Voting tracks your top suspicion, which forces scum to take positions that they have to account for later. Voting is protown.

Fencesitting, indecisiveness, "No one strikes me as particularly scummy," and "I'm going to see how things go before I act" are all antitown.

There should not need to be an argument about why you should act protown instead of antitown.

[Magua]

@Magua/Voting-
It's too early to be whining that everyone who is not currently voting is anti-town. Also, your post isn't really a fair/relevant response since he very explicitly stated he would place a vote. Also, to be clear, it sounds like you're reacting with a public service announcement against a playstyle/behavior you dislike; is that correct or are you claiming Mikujin's behavior says anything about him (or is otherwise relevant)?

He said he would place a vote when he's "confident", which is useless as a timeline.

As for the "playstyle": it is not simply that I dislike the playstyle (though I do); it is that not placing votes is definitively antitown in the same way that lurking is antitown, and it is to our benefit to get people to stop playing in an antitown fashion -- if they're town, it helps us to not mislynch them, and if they're scum, it helps the relationships between them.

It's the exact same argument about lurkers. It is to our benefit to get them to stop lurking.

Furthermore, the history of the quotes:

Pray tell, what's wrong with playing rather reserved? What's contradictory in pointing out a few things I've a distaste for and not following it up with a vote? I'm in no rush to make knee-jerk decisions based on isolated incidents that ping my gut.

We're nowhere near a lynch. Your vote is not set in stone. Vote. This goes for Xtoxm, as well.

Once again, if you think you're going to bully me into doing what you want, you can think again. I've got a spine, and a head on my shoulders. I'll vote when I'm confident in the one I'm making.

This sort of cautious play tends to be scum-motivated because they want to keep their options open down the line, so the whole thing makes me wary. The "bully me into doing what you want" also feels wrong; it's very out of proportion, so it reads as defensive.

That said, I only have a mild scumread on Mikujin at this point, which is not as strong as the one I have on diddin.

[Magua]

This sort of cautious play tends to be scum-motivated because they want to keep their options open down the line,

This is a load of BS. While the majority of players on this site tend to vote early despite having weak or non-existant reads, there's plenty of players, both town and scum, who play cautiously with their votes ESPECIALLY on D1. Your claim that scum are disproportionately more likely to engage in this behavior is unjustified.

Do you agree or disagree that indecisiveness, fence-sitting, and not placing votes are antitown?

[Magua]

Unraise: Twilight Sparkle

Raise: Percy

[Magua]

By the way, what is your opinion/defense of your contradiction that I caught?

I assume you are referring to this:

GreyICE is town.

Pretty sure Shadow is town.

Die self-contradicting scum. Unvote Vote: Magua

My suspicion of you is not based on you having a townread, it is based on you having a townread on DGB, something that literally no one else does, and that I find to be more than a little incomprehensible. When I call you on it, instead of backing up *why* you find DGB to be a townread, you make a sarcastic comment of "ITT having townreads is scummy", even though that's obviously not what I said.

Unraise: Twilight Sparkle

Raise: Percy

Based on what? Your only Raise before this was your first post, and if Percy had done anything to warrant a Raise you would have changed it prior to him needing to be prodded and his announcement or being sick so limited content.

Twilight Sparkle has stated that they would throw the governor away. That's a terrible use of the governor, so I have no further desire for them have it.

Next on the list of people who I think having the governor would be helpful in reading is Percy, so it's really the same reason as I raised Twilight Sparkle in the first place.

[Magua]

The user named "Song of Ice and Fire" got replaced out of a ASoIaF game. That is not a good sign for that slot.

[Magua]

Guys. Less concentration on hasdgfas, and more concentration on finding people who are scummy.

If you think hasdgfas is scummy (DGB), that's fine. Concentrating solely on the technical points of his post restriction (danakillsu) is useless.

Also, hasdgfas, please put a vote up.

[Magua]

So you can have unexplained townreads on people because other people also think that townread is town, but I can't have townreads that nobody else does? Horse. Shit. Besides I'm pretty sure I wasn't the only soul in this game who had a townread on DGB at that point.

I'll say this once more, and then I'm not going to respond to anything else on the subject.

You say you have a townread on DGB. I find this unusual/downright illogical.
I call it scummy.
Instead of responding with *why* you have a townread on DGB, or trying to convince me of your townread on DGB, or any of a number of other things, you respond with a sarcastic deflection ("ITT having townreads is scummy"). That, right there, more than anything else, has marked you as scum in my eyes.

Also, hasdgfas, please put a vote up.

*looks at vote count*

My bad.

[Magua]

Magua, why the flip are you raising Percy? He hasn't done ANYTHING at all. He's sick. Waste of time. Might as well have not raised him.

Asked and answered.

Elsewhere, I'm thinking scummy are Bunnylover and Dana for their (what I perceive to be) buddying of DGB, and perhaps zoraster for his vig fishing.

If you think Dana and Bunnylover are buddying DGB, doesn't that imply that DGB is town?

@Nexus:

What do you think of diddin?

Aside from the fact that he already had one up why are you focusing on certain players and not others in regards to having place a vote?

Because they're the ones I'm interested in seeing vote. Given hasdgfas' post restriction, voting is the absolute easiest way to get a read on him.

If you think hasdgfas is scummy (DGB), that's fine. Concentrating solely on the technical points of his post restriction (danakillsu) is useless.

I disagree with this. If we can figure out the technical points of his post restriction, then we can determine when/if he's broken it, and if there are no repercussions, then we know he's faking it.

This, this, and this are all pretty good indications that that's not going to happen.

So,

@Zdenek

, do you think hasdgfas is scummy or not?

Good point. Why don't we

[raise the person we're going to lynch]

?

Because throwing the governor away is useless when it can be used for reads.

Seriously, the fact that someone of you (and I'm looking at you, Twilight Sparkle) are considering that governor is a

detriment

to the town on D1 is ludicrous.

[Magua]

Seriously, the fact that someone of you (and I'm looking at you, Twilight Sparkle) are considering that governor is a detriment to the town on D1 is ludicrous.

Is it REALLY ludicrous? Think about it. In a regular game, the governor role is given to a townie, so the town benefits from that role. But we have no way to be sure we're giving it to a townie, we can just hope.

And what does the governor power do? All it serves to do is limit the town's options to lynch. It essentially provides an unproven player with veto power. The town's power is that it has a majority of players. Giving the governor power to someone to use lets a minority decide a lynch.

My understanding is that the governor can't even stop a scum driven quick lynch. In other words, he has to nominate a person BEFORE the hammer drops.

So no. It's not ludicrous. It's smart playing.

Please. Tell me the worst case scenario you envision with the governor. Is it scum governing scum on lylo? Well, now you have someone who has to explain why they governed the person everyone else wanted to lynch. How, exactly, is that bad?

[Magua]

Worst case? 2v3 lylo, deadline in an hour. Votes stand at:
Scum A: Town A (has been spotty in activity), Town B
Town A: Scum B, Scum A
Not Voting: Town C (waffling)

Scum B has the governor power. Uses it at this point to protect Scum A, claiming that he OBVIOUSLY knows Town A is scum.
Result: time is running low, Town A hasn't been seen in 30 hours, no sure thing he'll be back in time for the lynch. Town B and C have to, in less than an hour, make a read on whether Scum A is earnest (very possible since he's voting Town A in the first place and, if he were town, would do the very same thing) and vote Town A OR try and vote Scum B and hope that Town A gets online in time, but if he doesn't, there's no lynch and they lose anyway.

Compare that to the situation if there's no gov: Town C makes the coinflip choice between Town A and Scum A. Much likelier win.

Of course that's worst case scenario, so it's not necessarily all that likely, but it is illustrative. More likely the governor power will just serve to frustrate town.

What's the best case scenario you envision?

Your worst case scenario, I call good (with one wrinkle, noted below). How so?

In order to be *at all* believable, Scum B is forced to have been showing townreads on Scum A. Locking scum into behaviors is beneficial for the town. This also means that Scum B is forced to have scumreads on Town B.

Secondly, Scum B has to have been explaining why they haven't been nightkilled since D1.

Thirdly, if town correctly lynches Scum B in this case, the next day town autowins. (Town C must be clear. Town A knows Town B is clear. Town A's only possible scumpartners are Town B or Scum A, given the initial setup and the lack of hammer -- it is impossible for Town A to be partners with Scum B. Since Scum B turns out to be scum, Town A is clear.)

So scum may have reduced the chance for town to lynch correctly slightly (though Town B should be incredibly suspicious of Scum B for the governing), but they increased the town chance of winning overall.

The one wrinkle is the "1 hour until deadline". That's just silly. If town gets to the point where it's 1 hour before deadline on 5-way lylo, then they've lost already, governor or no governor. You've got two weeks, use them. If the scenario you outlined occurred, I would expect a town loss not because of the governor, but because town has just played poorly.

Best case scenario is that the governor is has to make reads and act upon them. If the governor is town, this is just good play. If the governor is scum, then it forces them into locking down their options far earlier than they might otherwise. If a governor doesn't do this, then they should get lynched.

@Shadow:

This is D1. Why don't you read diddin and come to your own conclusion?

[Magua]

@Magua: I see your point, but not the 3 other people voting him. He's definitely not worth voting over some of the other people here =\

I don't think GreyICE (whom you are voting for) is scum. Who else do you find worth voting for over diddin?

First, you take my worst case scenario, then address a different one. Then at the end you acknowledge you've done it. And as I described, town hasn't lost in that situation if there's no gov. You asked me for a worst case scenario, I gave you one. There are plenty of other less bad scenarios.

In your worst case scenario, town loses even outside of the governor, because town has played badly and gotten themselves into a completely avoidable situation.

For Scum B to be governor in that situation, entirely preceding the actual scenario described, he must have:
1) Posted townreads on Scum A
2) Posted scumreads on Town A and Town B
3) Approved of every lynch that has occurred, since he governed none of them (and at 5-way lylo in this game, that's going to include a fair number of mislynches)
4) Explained why he hasn't been nightkilled

These are all positives for the town. You prevent Scum B from bussing Scum A. You prevent Scum B from buddying Town A or Town B. As the number of mislynches accrue, you put more pressure on Scum B as to either why he's so bad with his scumreads, or why he hasn't governed one of the mislynches.

Even in the final scenario, scum governing scum is good for the town, with the noted exception of your one-hour-deadline. Then it's bad. Yes. Agreed. Don't let scum govern scum with one hour left until deadline. But that is *easily* avoidable by town, simply by not being idiots and wasting the other 2 weeks of the day.

So, tl, dr: Having a governor, even a scum governor, is good for the town.

[Magua]

Town hasn't lost in that situation. They're at a disadvantage, sure, but they haven't lost.

Which situation? It's unclear from your post which you mean.

If it's one-hour-to-deadline-scum-governs, town loses because they've played poorly, wasted their time, and the ability for all three town to get on and vote is low, even if Town B and C vote correctly.

If it's not one-hour-to-deadline, town is in a better situation if Scum B governs Scum A than if there was no governor.

Either way, town is in a better situation over no governor for the entire period leading up to the lylo lynch, by limiting Scum B's actions and making him accountable.

[Magua]

Last time, then I'm not responding on this line anymore:

1) Scum governing scum increases town EV, assuming that that town can lynch before deadline.
2) Scum governor is under more scrutiny, must take positions earlier, and cannot change positions as easily because of the scrutiny -- this all applies from D1 up until lylo.
3) Town that waste two weeks and allow it to get an hour to deadline in 5-way lylo is just playing badly to begin with.

I would rather give the governor to someone I thought was scum than to give it to someone who would waste it D1 to "get it out of the way".

I don't think [

governor

] is a detriment. I just think it isn't as powerful as some people are acting.

Sotty, I'd like for you to talk to your other heads about this. I direct you at Mina's post #87:

Right now, I think the role would mainly have a scum benefit, and even then, only when played at the right time. I'm asking because we're discussing the best use of the role in the Hydra QT. We'll explain more, later.

And hito's post #376:

As for the growing Raise wagon on us. As hinted at before, I'm of the personal opinion (hito-personal, not pony-personal) that the Governor role is best suited by immediately throwing it in the trash.

What I'd like from you all, collectively, is a) is governor useful to the town, and b) if Twilight Sparkle was raised, would you immediately govern to use the power up?

[Magua]

Everyone: Read xvart's ISO. Then lynch obvscum.

GreyICE, can you please show where xvart claims to have a townread on you? diddin's 252 is in reply to me and *my* townread on you.

[Magua]

@Mod:

xvart has 4 votes on him, not 3, and Benmage has 5 raises, ahead of Twilight Sparkle's 4.

bunnylover, chesskid, thoughts on diddin?

[Magua]

@Magua: I see your point, but not the 3 other people voting [

diddin

]. He's definitely not worth voting over some of the other people here =\

I don't think GreyICE (whom you are voting for) is scum. Who else do you find worth voting for over diddin?

@Shadow:

Please answer.

But really this is whole thing is starting to feel like a theory discussion which in turn isn't scum hunting. Do you find us, or others like us scummy for wanting to throw away this power?

I am finding you null-to-scummy at this point. Nothing to do with the governor -- I believe other people can legitimately disagree with me. The thing with you all is, you have posts, and the posts have content, but there's a complete lack of any of you pushing a lynch or trying to do something. You vote Shadow, but don't push; you vote ASoIaF, but don't push. This is doubly strange because not only are you not pushing on the ASoIaF/Thor lynch, it's obvious the lynch isn't going anywhere. xvart, diddin, Raivann, Locke Lamora -- you don't comment on *any* of these lynches, and you're not really trying to get *any* other lynches going.

That's my read.

[Magua]

Ooops. You're right. I got you and Magua mixed up in this case. My bad.

What is your opinion of Magna now?

[Magua]

A dayvig target should be a secondary FoS. Who has everyone made mention of, but put in their back pocket in favor of easier people to lynch.

I disagree with this. We should vote as-is. If someone gets close to the lynch threshold, then they should be day-vigged. Then we can look at the flip and the wagon composition and go from there.

I'm relatively certain this is what hasdgfas is saying (see what I did there?) anyways.

As such, I, for instance, would want diddin day-vigged.

[Magua]

@Hasdgfas:

If you use your power, does the day's deadline get extended?

[Magua]

Ok. Given our deadline is a little over seven days away, I'd like this done before the end of Sunday, that is, a little over three days away. That'll give us four days to look at the information from what happened and lynch someone else.

@Raivann:

You said you had a townread on diddin, and asked him not to vote you. What do you think of the other people on your wagon: LynchMePls, Feysal, Zdenek, Zoraster, and Bunnylover?

[Magua]

This is a recipe for disaster. Unfortunately [REDACTED] is not going to end before today ends to demonstrate why. Using a claimed Dayvig as a second lynch is going to result in a rushed Vig and a rushed deadline vote. When that happened Day 1 in Clash a Town Bulletproof got lynched at deadline over Scum.

Do you not think we can come up with a good target with 3 days?
And/or, do you not think we can come up with a good lynch within 4 days after that (7 days total)?

There were 9 scum in Clash of Kings. Shooting one would be nice, but hasdgfas simply shooting one does not help us *nearly* as much as seeing who wanted that person shot. Hasdgfas shooting town without any input is pretty much a complete waste of his ability and opportunity -- shooting town after being directed to gives us the information about who was on the "wagon".

I don’t like Cow’s offering it up unbidden and I don’t like his attempt to skirt responsibility by making it a voted move.

I'm trying to come up with any possible scum motivation that you could be assigning to this that you don't like, and I'm completely unable to do so. So what is it that you don't like about this?

[Magua]

As people were discussing who to lynch a body was found! Someone was dead. It was Xtoxm,

Xtoxm -

Catelyn Stark - Stark Neighbouriser

was killed day 1

Day continues, with 24 alive it still takes 13 to lynch. Vote count stays as is, will have an updated vote count in a second.

Holy shit, this setup is messing with me, because I spent five minutes writing a screed about "I told you so, now we won't learn diddly squat with a town flip" before the "Duh" moment.

Then I groaned at the title of the thread.

Ooops. You're right. I got you and Magua mixed up in this case. My bad.

What is your opinion of Magna now?

@Zoraster:

Answer, please.

Also, in a note to Xtoxm's posts, I read them as buddying GreyICE (reinforcing my townread) and trying to get xvart lynched (since he was placing the fifth vote on xvart -- way too early for a bus).

Of his town list, I am looking at TwilightSparkle or Zoraster for the scum.

[Magua]

I am sad that Zoraster has been on-site to post in other games, but hasn't posted here.

I am sad that every single one of Twilight Sparkle's heads have been on-site, two of the three posting in other games, but haven't posted here.

UNVOTE: diddin
VOTE: Zoraster

[Magua]

Unraise: Percy

Raise: benmage

Bandwagon ahoy.

[Magua]

Good lord, we're raising Benmage and I'm voting for it thanks to my predecessor? That's hilarious. Since Magna is on there I'll presume a logical argument has been presented for the idea, and since the other player (Magua) who I'd be likely to vote is currently voting Benmage I'll presume it's generally agreed on that the logic isn't terribad. Content to sit there for the nonce - at least this way he won't be mayor

My logic, summarized: Any governor is better than no governor. Benmage is the most likely to be made governor.

I am sad that Zoraster has been on-site to post in other games, but hasn't posted here.

I am sad that every single one of Twilight Sparkle's heads have been on-site, two of the three posting in other games, but haven't posted here.

UNVOTE: diddin
VOTE: Zoraster

I think this is not only pointless and unhelpful, it's also information that's pretty much always taken out of context, as Zoraster has pointed out. Also, is 'sad' an indicator that you find it scummy?

No. I find them scummy for other reasons. The "sad" is that they're online but not posting in this game, because, scum or town, their posting in this game is more useful to me than them not.

@Locke:

Zoraster seems to think Mikujin (who you think is scum) is town (post #520). Do you think Zoraster is town?

[Magua]

Magua your "online but not posting in this game" argument is total BS. We all probably have had times that we could only post in one of our games or didn't post in a game. People do it regardless of alignment.

Show me the quote where I said it was indicative of alignment. This is *especially* pertinent because Locke asked about this, and I answered, both before you posted. Did you not read post #783?

Regardless, Magua claims to have some other reason for thinking I'm scum. He has not detailed that reason as of yet (that I can tell), at least explicitly.

So, Magua: What are your reasons?

#1. You're not raising anyone.
#2. Post #463 smells of someone who wants to appear helpful without actually having read the thread, as the information had already been "revealed" long before your post.
#3.

Raivann, upon second inspection is scummy. I feel like he's going for a sort of "hit and run" post style that keeps him under the radar yet active. Without reviewing anything, can you remember anything Raivann has said or what his positions are? No? Me neither, and I just reread his iso. Pretty reluctant to vote

If there was a good case against Raivann, I don't recall seeing it. I isoed you to come across your vote on Raivann, but it's not like that was gold scum hunting. You are the only person to have voted him all game, so I don't really get where you're coming from.

#4. You get Magna and I mixed up in post #611. When this is pointed out, you admit the mixup, but you don't go and state how that changes (if at all) what you feel. It reads like what you feel is already set, and you're looking for ways to justify it, rather than looking at what's there and making up your mind.
#5. Post #698, referencing Kast's #693, shows a lack of reading the line (non-quoted in your post) above the vote, which makes me think you were just skimming the post for ammo.
#6. I do think there's a scum in xtoxm's town list: GreyICE, Magua, Twighlight, Chesskid, Feysal, Zoraster. Of those, I think GreyICE is town, I know I'm town, I think Chesskid is town, and Feysal I'm null on. That leaves Twilight Sparkle and you.

[Magua]

Show me the quote where I said it was indicative of alignment. This is *especially* pertinent because Locke asked about this, and I answered, both before you posted. Did you not read post #783?

You may not have definitively said "zoraster is scum because he isn't posting," but the intent was clear. The fact that you followed up with a vote only substantiates your intent. You can't backpedal out of this one.

I'll use small words.

Zoraster is scum.
I'm sad he isn't posting.

Note the lack of a "because" linking those two sentences. Carry on.

Once again, it's pretty clear Magua is grasping at straws trying to come up with something. Six points sounds like a lot, until you realize that some are truly weak and others are just downright mischaracterizations of what actually happened.

So am I scum-on-your-wagon, or misguided-town-on-your-wagon?

What about the other people on your wagon?

[Magua]

Why say it if you weren't trying to imply something? Just to be a jerk?

Because I find that saying what I think, instead of self-censoring, is better.

Hard to say. I'd lean scum, but I don't really think scum would be as stupidly focused as you have been, hardly caring anything you say makes sense or is based in reality. So I guess I'm null-leaning-scum on you at the moment.

I'd still like to hear what DGB thinks of her wagon-mates, but since you asked:

[Town]------DGB----MagnaOfIllusion--Benmage-[*]-Magua---Zdenek--LynchMePls----Kast-----Raivann---[Scum]

What do YOU think of the people on this wagon, Magua?

To borrow your little bar:

[Town]------LynchMePls-----Kast--DGB-[* Benmage * ]-Raivann-Zdenek-----------------[Scum]

More importantly for me, those other people that I think are scum (diddin, Twilight) aren't on your wagon.

If there's any specific questions people want from shoot away.

Who are the scum?

[Magua]

Magua: Why did you vote Zoaster over TS then? This seems scummy, as if you elected to choose a mislynch over a quantity you know might not be town. I don't have a problem with most of your other posts, but this one rings alarm bells to me.

Because a Zoraster lynch is easier to achieve, and will include relationships to other people (eg, Raivann), whereas Twilight Sparkle will effectively give no information because they haven't done a thing.

EBWOP: The first two paragraphs say VI. I meant to put VT there. I'm not entirely comfortable with raising anyone at the moment; it seems like a good way to advertise my scumreads to the entire scum team, and I'd rather not do that. I reserve the right to do so later.

Given the plurality rule for raising, not raising anyone is equivalent to raising Benmage.

[Magua]

On the subject of you bringing up Zoraster/TS's lack of posting, did you not think the statement followed by the vote inherently implies scumminess? You claim you think it's better to say what you think, so why not include another sentence to explain that you don't think it's scummy and that you are only voting Zoraster for reasons stated previously? This seems inconsistent to me.

Of all the things I strive for, consistency is not high on the list. I found Zoraster scummy. I wanted to see his response to what was going on. By the end of the day (when I posted), he still had not responded, and I was annoyed. Hence, the post.

I see your explanations at 783 and 788 and I don’t buy it them. I also really think you little High Horse act in 800 is bad. I’m guessing there are any number of players who might fit this pattern if we looked into posting records from when you brought this up. You in 780 essentially fluffed.

There are certainly enough players who are not posting enough in this game. They were not the ones that I was interested in hearing from. You can consider it fluff as you like.

Quick question for you - why did you you specifically exclude me from your Town to Scum list when you responded to Zoraster?

Oversight. I was messing around with the textual position of the names, and must've cut you out with pasting you back in. You should be in the Kast/DGB slightly townie side:

[Town]------LynchMePls-----Kast--MagnaofIllusion--DGB-[* Benmage * ]-Raivann-Zdenek-----------------[Scum]

[Magua]

Do the asterisks mean neutral?

If you're referring to that bar thing, yes.

[Magua]

I'm curious about those people who are raising hasdgfas now.

Yes, we're all certain that hasdgfas is not Stark. We all should've been certain of that as of 10:00 am CST Friday -- that is, some 3 days and 6 hours ago.

Yet no one bothered to raise hasdgfas during that time. I especially don't like Nexus' "If you're demanding a raise" in post #844. This isn't the sort of thing that should need to be demanded; it should be something that comes about because pro-town play is that you should do *something*, not kvetch and moan that someone is telling you to do something.

Those people who are raising hasdgfas now because a stink is being made about it are being either a) lazy and inattentive, or b) scummy.

Also, I'll get this out there in response to bunnylover: If we lynch Zoraster and he flips scum, I am inclined to believe Raivann is town. That is, I don't buy that the scenario is "Zoraster-scum FoSes Raivann-scum while voting Locke Lamora-town." I am inclined, given the state of the game, to think it is "Zoraster-scum FoSes Raivann-town while voting Locke Lamora-scum-or-town".

[Magua]

Flavor says that Zoraster wasn't bluffing at the end.

hasdgfas and Locke are confirmed town, as far as I'm concerned.
Shadow remains a strong town read.
GreyICE was a townread, but DTMaster, meh, not so much at this point.

I highly doubt Raivann is Stark. diddin rode her lynch over Zoraster's for a long time (till one hour before lynch, as it turns out). I could see him jumping onto a buddy's wagon at the end, but not jumping from a buddy's wagon if it was obvious someone else was going to be lynched.

Actually, looking at the wagon on diddin yesterday, I am disinclined to believe that any of Raivann, MagnaofIllusion, xvart, or Zdenek are Stark.

So:

VOTE: Twilight Sparkle

Nominate: Mikujin

[Magua]

Diddin's death seems to imply a third faction, something that was brought up before. We could have a Vig, sure, you've been pretty analytical Magua, what do you think there?

Hard to say. It's certainly plausible that there's a third faction, which is why my first post of the day said I don't think Raivann, MagnaofIllusion, xvart, or Zdenek are Stark, rather than "I think they're town".

I would certainly like to believe that diddin was a vig kill, but at this point, given the information we have, it doesn't matter. Some faction other than the Starks killed a Stark, which is good for us. Save the multi-mafia/SK/vig speculation for when we have more information about the nightkills -- D3 or D4.

@Ghostlin:

Do you think diddin was bussing Raivann through most of D1?

@Ghostlin, Bunnylover, Thor:

Votes please.

[Magua]

Thor, what is the point of posting:

I actually support the idea of flipping Raivaan at the moment but I'm pretty sure I ought to be able to come up with a better scum read than 'let's flip the other wagon for reads on who was on it' so at the very least I'm going to read up and see if I'm actually willing to call Raiv individually scummy before I vote him.

This post translates as "I support lynching Raivann but I don't actually I'm going to wait a bit." Why even write this? If you support lynching Raivann, vote her, if you don't, then I have no idea what your thought process was at this point and would very much like to know.

@Ghostlin:

Sorry, missed your BL vote.

[Magua]

@Magua:

Not sure where I'm going to put my vote.

I'm debating with-in my head rather or not to vote Raivann, but if he town he just such an easy mislynch.

I mean even I think he's scum

, and I'm useless in my reads almost all my games except for three and one was with like 8 people left.

Do you see the discrepancy here?

[Magua]

I want to lynch Raivaan for, and only for, the information gained by seeing that slot flip with a few of the hoppers towards the end of Day 1. I admit I don't actually have a scum read on him myself and announce I'm going to go read up and if I get said scumtell he'll be my vote. If I get a towntell he won't. I did this so people would have something to react to off of me, and also so I could flesh out my post in order to lure more people into commenting on it so I could start babbling at them and get some reads without having to read back since I find that part of the game tedious, not so fun, and generally only semi-useful for my own reads.

What of it?

You had votes on xvart and on Mikujin D1. Do you not find them scummy anymore? Why would you propose a lynch on Raivann instead of voting one of those two?

[Magua]

Since the Mikujin vote 'things have happened in thread - like dead people and wagons that led to lynches. That changes the lay of the gamescape in my opinion and defeats the super solid and expansive Mikijun=scum case I had presented and pressed for earlier.

Since I consider Mikujin to be scummy (see my nomination), I am interested in hearing what has occurred that makes you think he is less scummy than you did earlier.

[Magua]

@Magua: What's the case on Twilight?

My case is laid out here. I'll quote it for your ease. "You" refers to "Twilight Sparkle".

I am finding you null-to-scummy at this point. Nothing to do with the governor -- I believe other people can legitimately disagree with me. The thing with you all is, you have posts, and the posts have content, but there's a complete lack of any of you pushing a lynch or trying to do something. You vote Shadow, but don't push; you vote ASoIaF, but don't push. This is doubly strange because not only are you not pushing on the ASoIaF/Thor lynch, it's obvious the lynch isn't going anywhere. xvart, diddin, Raivann, Locke Lamora -- you don't comment on *any* of these lynches, and you're not really trying to get *any* other lynches going.

Since I posted that, Twilight raised hasdgfas (after waffling on whether even having a governor was good for the town) and did their "ISO head to head", which has to be the most contentless ISOs I've ever read. A lot of IIoA (he did this, he did that). A *lot* of waffling (he did this, but I can see why he'd do that because of X). It doesn't even end up in a vote until *after* zoraster's claimed anyways -- so with all that ISO reading, TS still formed no opinion until the wagon was on zoraster anyways. Then they hop on.

In fact, the problem can be summed up as so: Twilight Sparkle is hitogoroshi, Mina, and Sotty7, three good players. It is D2, after a thousand posts and two scum flips. Tell me who they think the scum are.

Tell you what, let me walk you through the sarcasm - I can occasionally be a little too clever for my own good.

You need to watch your sarcasm around me. Magua does not have a sense of humor he is aware of.

@Feysal, Ghostlin, Bunnylover:

Do you think diddin was bussing Raivann through most of D1?

@Thor665:

You say (in 1006) that you want to lynch Raivann for the flip information. I'm curious what flip information you think you would get.

[Magua]

@Magua: No. I think Diddin was just trying to join whatever wagon was available at that time. As Benmage pointed out, Diddin just didn't consider anything and join the wagon that looked like was going for the lynch for the day.

So you don't think Raivann and diddin were partners?

[Magua]

Raivann is not diddin's partner. Raivann is not Stark. I'm pleased that Benmage took her lynch off the table for today, because the amount of people who are for her lynch despite the Raivann/diddin interaction D1 is mindboggling. Ghostlin will reply with something about bussing. Their interaction does not read like bussing, is what I'm saying.

Twilight Sparkle remains scum. Happy with my vote there. Would be happier if other people moved their vote there as well.

Am coming around to Nexus-as-scum.

Am coming around to Thor-as-town. His repeated "I haven't read the thread, nyeah nyeah," is annoyingly antitown, but just seems like one of those "Duh" things where I can't imagine Thor-as-scum saying to themselves, "I know! I'll claim I haven't read the thread, and then I'll start mocking everyone who calls me on it! Being a pest in a game where I know there's another killing faction that could shoot me seems like a great move!"

For those who are not voting Twilight Sparkle, I'd like to know if it's because a) you think they're town, or b) you think they're null-to-scum, but you have a larger scumread on someone else.

[Magua]

He seemed to get pretty quite after I linked his delayed reading to a KNOWN scum tactic of his.

Link to this game, please.

On a side note, I'm male. I know the "ann" on the end is a little confusing. Raivann= Nirvana (mixed up)

My bad, won't happen again. While I have your attention, though, thoughts on Twilight Sparkle?

[Magua]

He seemed to get pretty quite after I linked his delayed reading to a KNOWN scum tactic of his.

Link to this game, please.

I thought I said it is from Zachs mountainous game which just recently ended. In the LG themed section..you can scroll down to find it.

Counterpoint to what you said: he replaces into Zach's game (as scum), and immediately (within 12 hrs) begins his reread and posting stuff from it. He continually advances his reading of the game as he posts. He mines his reading for people to attack. He does not go around poking wasp nests with sticks.

None of that I'm seeing in this game. His behavior in this game has been all about pissing people off. Could he be scum? It's not impossible. But especially given the people who are voting him (that is, Twilight Sparkle and Nexus), I'm leaning against the idea.

[Magua]

Come now. No 2 games are going to match identically. He finds value in delaying a read through. Because it gives him an excuse to coast. This case isn't the exact same. But here he concentrates on nothing...That he can excuse later when he finally does catch-up.

In both scenarios he benefits from the delay.

But in the first scenario he didn't delay. Despite his comment in the scum QT, he did not lurk anywhere near the start of the game. And his "lol I'm not going to reread" already has him halfway to being the lynch, which is the antithesis of what scum would be wanting in this situation.

I didn't read the Zach mountainous game, but I ISO'ed Thor in it, and I am not seeing similarities in playstyle. I don't really want to argue this with you, but I do want to get my opinion out there on the matter. That's it.

[Magua]

@DTMaster:

I'm usually not a stickler about this, but given that I'm in this game with MagnaofIllusion, disambiguation helps. For instance, I can'te tell if by "Maguna" you mean me, or him.

3. Magua: Leading into Day 2 pre flips, I assume you had a town read on Diddin?

This right there makes me doubt how much you're actually reading.

@Magua, what's your read of Feysal. Elaborate as much as possible please.

Feysal's leaning town.

First, I give him a bit of a pass on his ploddish nature and careful placement of his vote, as I know that's how he plays as town (reference: Consulmaker 2).

I find his post 746 to be very town, and his method of building his cases is at least rational; I can follow along with what he says and understand the point of view he's coming from.

I disagree with his extreme focus on Raivann, and I disagree with his end result (Raivann is scum).

I would very much like Feysal to give opinions on people *other* than Raivann.

Also, since it seems to have been missed:

For those who are not voting Twilight Sparkle,

I'd like to know if it's because a) you think they're town, or b) you think they're null-to-scum, but you have a larger scumread on someone else.

A scum player wants to not make waves, yes, and he accomplishes this by not voting.

But this had the reverse effect..And he could've rectified the situation...by voting...Rather he sticks to his guns...A Town-tell in my book.

Yet you do not believe this to be the case with Thor?

[Magua]

Because I am leery of people who say "Policy lynching a VI D1 is the smart move" when there's more than one VI.

Why does the presence of more than VI make a difference?

The purpose of PLing a VI is to raise the level of the town-play -- if the VI is an anomaly in terms of skill, lynching them raises the average play of those who are left.

However, if there are multiple VIs, it is not feasible to lynch all of them as a matter of policy -- town does not have that many lynches to throw away. Lynching only one or two of them is not as advantageous because they are not anomalies in terms of play level -- there are many at their level -- so there will not be the accompanying raise in the average play. Finally, if there are multiple VIs, chances of a policy lynch actually hitting a scum VI goes down, because it is easy for scum to direct the policy lynch onto a town-VI instead.

I'll answer this since I still think it is possible that they might be on a team together. I'll have to go back and check to see when diddin started pushing Raivann because if it is early enough he could have thought the wagon wouldn't go anywhere (when compared to other wagons) or if it is late enough he could be hedging his bets and trying to buy some town cred if Raivann is a simple goon (compared to his tracker). It also isn't out of the question that Raivann could be self aligned SK. Raivann's failure to provide legitimate grounds for the aSoIF/Thor votes is incredibly untown.

I'll be upfront: I don't care if Raivann is self-aligned SK at this point. I care about hitting Stark. If it was an SK that hit diddin last night, I want Stark to have to worry about finding and killing them.

However, the next person who says, "A Sotty, Mina, and hitogoroshi hydra would be MUCH more protown than this" gets throttled through their computer screen.

A Sotty, Mina, and hitogoroshi hydra would be MUCH more protown than this. No, I'm not just being an ass. You should. I maintain everything that I said in post #1050. At that point (which is before your post #1060), you had posted zero scumreads. Zero. Your vote on Zoraster was *after* he claimed, and was 10th on the wagon.

Your #1060, where hito gives reads on everyone, I will summarize:
danakillsu: No direct read. Scum if Mikujin is town.
Raivann (by way of diddin): Let's look at connections! diddin flipping scum means Raivainn could be scum...or maybe town!
DGB: Probably town
GreyICE/DTMaster: Town.
Feysal: Town.
hasdgfas: Town.
Kast: Null.
Locke: Town...or maybe SK!
LynchMePls: Null to null-to-scum.
MagnaOfIllusion: Null.
Magua: Town...or maybe scum!
Mikujin/Setael: Null.
Nexus: Town.
Percy/Ghostlin: Null.
Shadow: Null.
ASoIaF/Thor: Scum.
xvart: Null-to-town.
Zdenek: Town.

So, again, my problem in a nutshell is in that list, you have a single strong scumread. On the other hand, you have fence-sitting positions aplenty. You say your three favorite lynches are Thor, Raivann, and danakillsu, but for both Raivann and danakillsu, you are flippy-floppy about whether they're scum.

Then you say your second tier is Kast, LynchMePls, Nexus, and Mikujin. Your reads on them, from just up above, are null, null-to-scum, *town*, and null. You including Nexus really rubs me the wrong way, considering what you said about him just above.

For the record, the most likely scum on my wagon is Zdenek (will explain more in another post)

I would like more on this. Especially the change from the townread that was posted in #1060.

@Feysal:

:@Feysal: What made you so sure before that there were 2 scum factions?

Nothing. It was a theory based on the game size, and the fact that there were two scum factions in Clash of Kings. I dropped that theory as soon as there was information that suggested a single scum faction.

But your D1 post indicate you believe that there's only one scumteam, not two, since you call Locke town based on his DGB/Zoraster interaction. If you thought there was more than one team, DGB pushing on Locke would not mean he was town, even if she was scum.

[Magua]

I'll be brief:

Explain "Magua is sheeping MoI and Benmage" with the fact that I'm the first on your wagon, and I was the first to call you out yesterday.

Explain why you should be held to the same scumhunting standards as, eg, Raivann or Bunnylover.

Explain the belief that Thor + Raivann cannot be scum together (#1060 / #1108) with your vote for Thor and placing Raivann in the "issues with vote" category.

Explain why you have no issues with hasdgfas voting you.

[Magua]

In general: MagnaofIllusion, Feysal, Zdenek, I find your wall posts that consist entirely of a one or two line quote followed by a one or two line response followed by a one or two line quote, etc, etc, to be incredibly annoying to read. There's no flow to your thoughts at all, it's like reading a questionaire. Especially when you just respond to someone's question with a question. There's no need to respond to each question someone asks individually if they all correspond to the same topic.

Magua looking back I see you were right and I did say sheeping last night in reference to your position on us. That is poor wording on my part. I agree you aren't sheeping but not just because you were the first vote on us, but because you haven't made any kind of case on us outside activity. I still like my shield comment though, it's like your using MoI and Ben to hide your lack of any real input towards us.

My read on you isn't because of your activity. If it was activity, I'd be over Kast or DTMaster. My read on you is over the complete lack of content you posted up until #1060. I say this in #615 and #1050. Neither of those mention activity at all. What they mention is the lack of anything useful in your posts. I call you on waffling. I call you on having zero scumreads before #1060.

More on this after the break:

A Dance With Dragons to be published July 12, 2011.

REJOICE!

Posted on GRRMartin's blog:
Mar. 3rd, 2011 at 9:11 AM
No. Sorry. Not done yet.



Now, stuff.

Twilight's case on Zdenek is exactly what I'm looking for out of that slot.

Quick question:

...remember, MoI and Magua were scumreads of his before...

Where am I a scumread of Zdenek's?

Other than that, I like the case...but I'm not convinced by it. I could buy Zdenek as bussing diddin D1 where I can't buy diddin bussing Raivann. Twilight's suspicion of Zdenek is at least set-up for the last few days. But, I retain suspicion of Twilight Sparkle nonetheless. Call it lingering suspicion.

In the meantime, I believe LynchMePls, and I think he's town. But I'm not getting his attack on Feysal, at least the impetus of it: If there's two scumteams, then doesn't that completely invalidate the "Feysal slipped knowing that there's only one scumteam D1" theory?

UNVOTE: Twilight Sparkle

Unnominate: Setael

VOTE: Nexus

Nominate: Twilight Sparkle

[Magua]

@LynchMePls:

In the meantime, I believe LynchMePls, and I think he's town. But I'm not getting his attack on Feysal, at least the impetus of it: If there's two scumteams, then doesn't that completely invalidate the "Feysal slipped knowing that there's only one scumteam D1" theory?

[Magua]

So, after ruminations, I've decided that I don't believe Zdenek is scum. Twilight's case on Zdenek is mostly "Here's a post-by-post analysis, and here's the scummy things I found" without tying it into, eg, actions that were taken and associations with already flipped scum. Rereading Zdenek's D1, I can see the possibility of the bus (unlike with Raivann), but it's far more likely that he's simply not scum.

My preferred lynch is Twilight Sparkle.
UNVOTE: Nexus
VOTE: Twilight Sparkle

I will vote Feysal near deadline to avoid a no lynch if necessary, but I'd rather by far lynch Twilight.

[Magua]

TS is town, why don't you let the scum NK them, they have been very active, clever and useful. Lynching TS is doing the scum's job.

Enlighten me.

[Magua]

Benmage, learn to read the claim before you invoke the caps lawk and the ?!?!?!s.

The claim is "voyeur", not "watcher", which in this case seems to indicate he only knows if someone was targetted, not who did the targetting.

Feysal, do you learn the nature of the targetted action, or just that there was one or more actions that targetted someone?

[Magua]

Your quick three-page flavor bible is http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/A_Storm_of_Swords

Petyr is an interesting claim. On the face of it, flavorwise, it would seem best suited to a third party (Petyr both helps the Lannisters, by setting up the alliance with Tyrell that allows them to repel Stannis' attack on King's Landing, and hurts them by poisoning Jefferey and having Lysa Arrys blame the Lannisters for Jon Arrys' death.) But no third party in their right minds would ever make this claim. Scum would claim it if it was their fakeclaim.

Looking at the zoraster votes isn't going to be conclusive, since if Feysal is scum, he'd have every reason to be voting zoraster (who could not be a buddy) regardless.

All that being said, the claim doesn't really change anything for me. I still would prefer to lynch Twilight Sparkle, and I will still lynch Feysal if it's that or no-lynch.

[Magua]

Petyr also has Sansa escape.

Has an ever loving love of Catelyn Stark.

Will in the next book:

Kills Cat's sister.
And (theory) Put Sansa stark with an Eyrie Noble to unite the Eyrie and the North.

That occurs in this book, not the next one. I even put it in my post (not the Sansa thing, but the Lysa thing).

To people in general: In case you're not familiar with the flavor, in the link I gave last post, search for "Littlefinger," the common name of Petyr Baelish.

That said, for those trundling down the path of "By flavor, Petyr is anti-Lannister, and so Feysal is claiming scum," considering that Clash of Kings had mod-provided safeclaims, is it your opinion that...
1) They don't this game,
2) Feysal has one and is ignoring it,
3) Feysal's fakeclaim really, really sucks.

Just curious.

But than again Tyrion was. And doesn't Tyrion kill Twyin in this one?

Yes.

I had some reservations with your post - the unpushed vote that sat alone on V/LA Nexus seem pretty much guaranteed not to go anywhere. I got the vibe that, “I expect the other scum to jump off of Twilight, and I want to be first. But I guess I can slide back on if needed." Lo and behold, you’re back - but why, exactly?

I wanted to see what would happen, specifically whether anyone would complain about it. Nothing did, which was less than useful. I gave it a few days, and then put it back as the deadline approached.

My reason for putting it back on you is the same as it's ever been: you're the one I most want to lynch.

As well, there’s a giant elephant in the room with “tying it to other players" - the Feysal case. You have yet to say what you think of it (you said you didn’t understand it, it was clarified, and you subsequently fell silent.) This would seem to be right up your alley, and yet you’re not voting or nominating Feysal - instead, you’re both voting AND nominating us.

I find Feysal triggers all of my scum-buttons in general: he vacillates, he fence-sits, he posts pro's and con's of everything put before him. I thought he was scum in Consulmaker II, but he wasn't. He's just an incredibly cautious player. I go over this briefly in post #1167. I can *easily* see Feysal-town add "And diddin." into a post.

So most of the items that LMP calls him on are null tells for me, and I have a town read on Feysal. Mentioned in post #1321.

Your hop back on to us seems, to put it charitably, insincere. You don’t think Zdenek is scum. Swell. Why do you think we’re scum? And why isn’t Feysal?

Do you believe my reasons for starting your wagon were sincere?

Alternative question: What do you see as the scum motivation?

Would you be willing to lynch Nexus?

P-edit:

Everyone is screaming (under the false impression that he was a watcher) "WHY DIDN"T YOU TARGET BENMAGE" when the real question should have been why he didn't target hascow.

A million times, this.

[Magua]

Looking at the zoraster votes isn't going to be conclusive, since if Feysal is scum, he'd have every reason to be voting zoraster (who could not be a buddy) regardless.

But if Feysal was town Petyr and knew zoraster was lying about LL's identity, he would have immediately voted him,no?

And if he's scum Petyr then he would...?

[Magua]

My reason for putting it back on you is the same as it's ever been: you're the one I most want to lynch.

I think you're scum and I want you lynched. I think you played a subpar game D1, a subpar game D2 until it looked like you were going to get lynched for it, then busted out the Zdenek case. Although I appreciate the upswing in activity, I still think you're scum.

Alternative question: What do you see as the scum motivation?

Aside from the simple benefit of getting a mislynch? You could be scum with Feysal trying to protect him. You could be trying to buddy to Feysal-town hoping a Rolecop confirms him as Petyr. You could just be opposing a Feysal mislynch because you think it's going through and you want towncred. Plenty of reasons, in short.

The question was, "What do you see as the scum motivation of voting you after voting Nexus?" After all, if, FYPOV, you're town, and I'm scum, what did I gain if I'm moving off of your (FYPOV town) lynch to Nexus'?

Your quote, "I expect the other scum to jump off of Twilight, and I want to be first. But I guess I can slide back on if needed." shows that you think there are/were other scum on your wagon. Looking back, your main attacks have been Zdenek, MagnaofIllusion, and I, all of whom were voting for you today, and Thor, who was not.

Do you think Feysal is town?

Do you think Nexus is town?

P-edit:

Everyone is screaming (under the false impression that he was a watcher) "WHY DIDN"T YOU TARGET BENMAGE" when the real question should have been why he didn't target hascow.

A million times, this.

Why? A voyeur wouldn't want to target a likely nk...

I will re-edit with the implied part put in italics

Everyone

who thought Feysal was a watcher and not a voyeur

is screaming (under the false impression that he was a watcher) "WHY DIDN"T YOU TARGET BENMAGE" when the real question should have been why he didn't target hascow.

[Magua]

Could've feared a role cop outing and effing him and went with his normal iffy claim.

Idno.

Kinda late to switch steam. Role aint the strongest ...I doubt a plausible switch at this hour.

This seems like weak posting coming from you, Benmage.

Do you think Feysal is scum?

[Magua]

Ah, Twilight Sparkle. I wrote two pages of replies to you, and ended up deleting it because I realized I could summarize it very easily:

If you think that my case has only been about your inactivity, then you've stopped reading my posts circa #1049. Furthermore, I really don't care about convincing you that I'm right and you're scum, since that's never going to happen, and at this point, neither is your lynch.

Mina's angry at me if I'm town. Trust me that the feeling is reciprocal. We'll find out soon enough.

[Magua]

LynchMePls is town. Obviously not a Stark, and no serial killer admits like that.

Given both diddin/Bunnylover and Magna/Bunnylover interaction, Bunnylover is non-Stark.

Shadow remains town.

Locke and hasdgfas remain confirmed town.

I said this at the start of D2:

Actually, looking at the wagon on diddin yesterday, I am disinclined to believe that any of Raivann, MagnaofIllusion, xvart, or Zdenek are Stark.

Egg on my face there. But, on the other hand, this would mean that if Raivann were Stark, Magna would be jumping on right after Raivann's vote, and that then, later, Xtoxm would have to be jumping onto xvart right after his vote. From Magna, I can maybe see this, but I do not think Xtoxm would be so bold.

Continue to disbelieve in Raivann-Stark.

@Magua/Zdenek-
You both explicitly stated you'd switch to Feysal to prevent a No Lynch, but didn't follow through on your promise (there may be a couple others I'm missing). Explain.

I was at work, and watching the thread. It never even got within an hour of deadline, so I didn't vote him.

@Andrius:

Your flavor summary is here. At this point, it's one scumteam, no cult.

Do de do. Deciding about Twilight Sparkle. Magna being a jailkeeper changes things. In the meantime, I'm going to VOTE: Nexus.

[Magua]

Actually, I just remembered that LMP didn't shoot diddin N1.

@LynchMePls:

Who'd you shoot?

[Magua]

Thor, will you marry me?

[Magua]

Actually, I just remembered that LMP didn't shoot diddin N1.

@LynchMePls:

Who'd you shoot?

If everyone wants an answer to this question I'll give it. As of right now, I think it's better for town if I do not.

Since you already claimed that you shot chesskid N1, I'm failing to see how it can be better for the town if you don't answer. You've already claimed, after all, so it's only four possible answers (Shot Magna, shot xvart, shot someone else who didn't die which should've been your first post today if true, or shot no one which *also* should've been your first post today if true)

Kast/Thor: Girls, girls, you're both pretty.

[Magua]

shot someone else who didn't die which should've been your first post today if true, or shot no one which *also* should've been your first post today if true

I'm not sure either of these statements are true. Why should I claim these things if it helps the scum to know the answers and doesn't help us?

Why would it help them but not us? Scum already know whether or not they shot xvart. Scum already know they didn't shoot Magna. We all know there's still the unexplained N1 diddin kill.

I don't see the "secret information" you're afraid of having scum have here.

[Magua]

@Magua - wasn't I promised a "this is why Shadow is town" post? I want to move the newbie into a town slot with a pain that is akin to flaming gall stones, so please don't leave me hanging on that one.

I forgot in the excited preparations for marriage.

I had a general townread on Shadow early on; nothing specific to pin it on, just that for someone drawing a lot of heat and attention, Shadow was being pretty chatty, a townread for a newer player.

What really solidified my read was post 164:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=16004

FWIW I've never been scum here (I was hoping to get it this game and was excited when my role came up Lannister... then went 'awwww').

I will leave as an exercise to the reader why this post confirms Shadow as town.

[Magua]

* The thread title is amazing. I will hear no argument.

In my head, I hear, "More like River RUINED...am I right? High five!"

Locke is town because Gregor Clegane is town, and Zoraster/the mod have confirmed that Zoraster's lynch target was Locke Lamora/Gregor Clegane.
(Arguments that "Locke can still be SK" go here and are ignored for now.)

LMP-as-SK makes no sense. Zero. None. LMP-as-scum makes only the smallest modicum of sense -- diddin dying N1 tells scum there is another killer out there, and so the claim is very dangerous. I'm still fully believing LMP as town.

DGB, is your "Benmage is town" mod-confirmed like your "DTMaster is town"?

[Magua]

@Magua-
Lulz, you're ignoring a serious PR claim with info incriminating Zdenek as SK to chase DGB's obvious fake/joke claim. Great.

Correct. As soon as you give this incriminating information on Zdenek, I'll be sure to ask you about it as well. Until then, it means nothing to me.

@Town-
We don't have much time to discuss with everyone. Zdenek has clear incentive to refuse claiming anything (as he has done) wait this out and NK me tonight. I'm appalled that everyone seems perfectly happy to let this happen.

You said you had information you'd give when he claimed. He's not going to claim. Ball's in your court.

[Magua]

@Magua - Derpy-derp-dee-doo? How about we let Zdenek fight that fight if he wishes? If he doesn't have the brass tacks to call Kast out I'd rather you didn't.

I was happy to let Zdenek fight that until Kast called me out.

In addition, Kast called me out in a way that says he doesn't believe DGB, but, I actually do believe that DGB received this message, and I find it somewhat odd that Kast doesn't.

What the hell? The incriminating info is that he's the SK. Fishing for details about my role is a waste of time as I've already said I'm not giving more until Zdenek claims. If you doubt me then be clear about it and say so. Sitting back and ignoring things isn't helping in any way.

Fine. Then my stance is "I don't believe you."

[Magua]

@Magua - You really think kast is scum that decided to hyper push a mislynch yesterday on policy grounds and then claimed locating the SK? There's an easy way to test some of this, and it still gives me what I want which is some Zdeneck votes. Also, DGB has Z-boy in her worrisome list anyway, so whether or not Kast buys into her I'm not sure how I see that reflecting back on the Zdeneck issue.

Seeing as I don't *have* Kast's information, there's nothing yet to change my read of Zdenek yesterday, which was non-Stark. Yes, SK is non-Stark, but what information is Kast going to have that tells him "Zdenek is SK" instead of "Zdenek is scum"?

And to wander into rampant paranoia for a bit: If there's an SK, they're likely night-kill immune. If Zdenek is the SK, I would not be surprised if he was the N1 kill which failed, which would fit the pieces of "How does Kast know he's SK instead of scum?"

@Magua-
ITT DGB already admitted she frequently fakes being a PR as vanilla. This is part of her typical playstyle. Supporting this, her "mod-confirmed" reads came about in response to posts, rather than new reads developed after night phases. None of this needs to be pointed out to you.

Based on your earlier game play, the quality of your current play seems to have taken a sharp nose dive.

So your operating theory is that Zdenek is the serial killer, and that I am defending him...why?

P-Edit: He claims a bulletproof role. Now Kast can claim.

[Magua]

Less blabbing until Kast replies.

[Magua]

Zdenek, I understand your role claim so far, but if you could clarify a few points for me:

1) Is your role "Modified Kill Immune"?
2) Is there anything else about your role to claim, or is that it?

[Magua]

Vote: Shadow1psc I love this wagon. The reason I thought shadow was town early was because I thought his post wherehe said aww schucks i'm lannister. When I read my pm I was like ok im scum lannister but whose my scumbuddies. But yeah that's not really what shadow was saying.

You're killing me here. Seriously. I'm lying next to my computer, dying, typing this message with my foot.

First - Scum never tell the truth, ever? Kast hadn't claimed how much he knew, perhaps zdenek decided not to lie when the truth would work better. His d2 play doesn't contradict a bulletproof player. His d2 play contradicts a bulletproof townie.
Second - Valid, the point of me mentioning the speed was <First>.
Third - How could scumZdenek trigger his vest any faster? Killing chesskid N0? I'm saying the day game does not support bulletproof-townZdenek at all, yet the night game supports scumZdenek rather accurately.

I'm straying into outguess the mod shenanigans here, but you're suggesting a scum-PR that benefits from killing a townie. Scum already benefit from killing a townie, there seems little incentive to weaken the power with something random like that.

I mean, look at the scum PRs:
- Neighborizer
- Tracker
- Jailkeeper

Look at the town PRs:
- 1-shot Vig (not confirmed yet, but, y'know)
- 1-shot Dayvig
- Voyeur
- Jack of Some Trades

I know into which of those buckets I'd throw "Conditional Bulletproof"

All of that aside, I simply don't believe Zdenek is Stark, so. Confirmation bias and all. Yes, yes, "He could be SK!" If he's an SK, he's some sort of rolecop investigation immune. I would expect that to show up as a vanilla townie, like Dana did N1, then to only be a partial role reveal.

@Shadow, Raivann:

Raivann, meet Shadow. Shadow is town. Shadow, meet Raivann. Raivann is...well, Raivann isn't Stark, I can tell you that.

Now, onto Nexus. I'm grabbing this out of ISO, so the post numbers are ISO #s. I'm sure you'll manage.

#1: Townread on DGB (only townread mentioned for quite some time), but doesn't raise her. Votes GreyICE, but never really pushes this.

#3: "I don't like town/scum lists anyway[...]I concede sometimes they can be useful". Says he'd only raise a confirmed townie, which is "very unlikely to happen on Day 1, so I'd rather not raise anyone at all", but given the plurality of rules, *someone's* going to get the governor title.

#7: Says a lot of things about a lot of people without following through. A lot of reactions, but no force behind them. For instance, "Chesskid is surprisingly quiet compared to the last game I read where he was town." But there's no followup suspicion of Chesskid, nor does this ever get mentioned again. Most of the reactions are exactly like that -- points out something scummy, but without actually calling the person scum. Votes DGB, but again, never really pushes this.

#12: Says this about Xtoxm in #7: "And he doesn't have a vote out." Unvotes DGB here in #12, will not revote someone else for two days (when he will vote Raivann)

#15: Raises Hasdgfas with the ultra passive aggressive: "If you're demanding a raise, I'll raise the cow."

#17: Busts out with the Raivann/BunnyLover scumpair.

#20: Switches to Thor after Benmage puts Raivann off limits.

#22: Paraphrased: "I don't like town lists, they're not useful, but since you asked once, I'll give you one." Again, the passive aggressiveness.

#29: Long catch-up post. Boils down to making a choice between Twilight, Feysal, and Zdenek. Doesn't think Twilight is scum. Contains this line: "[Feysal's #1233] does a good job at addressing the good case that LMP had on him. " Contains this line: "TS' case on Zdenek is pretty full on and fairly good. Seems like a lot of effort for a scumbag to go to try to serve a mislynch, particularly when there are many easier mislynches around in the game." Ends the post with this: "vote: Feysal"

Zdenek is not mentioned in the post at all, aside from that line quoted above, whereas Feysal is mentioned repeatedly.

#35: Post about Petyr flavor, contains this line: "So yes. He is a dirty traitor. Obviously, I don't know how much flavour reflects reality."

So, to provide some A instead of IIoA, Nexus votes easy people: GreyICE early in the game, DGB, then Raivann. These are easy-to-swallow lynch targets because they don't require much in the way of explanation. The only one that doesn't fit is Feysal, when it was going to be a Twilight Sparkle, Feysal, or Zdenek lynch. Thinks TS is town, thinks TS' argument is solid, never says whether he thinks LMP is town, never mentions whether he thinks Zdenek is scum, votes Feysal.

Never pushes on any of his lynches. Seems to care not one whit whether the person he thinks is mafia is getting lynched or not. Witness his defense to his Raivann vote ("I thought Raivann was scummier than zoraster, that's why I voted him") and compare it to a complete and utter lack of him trying to get other people to vote Raivann as well. Thinks Twilight Sparkle is town, but never made any noises about people getting off the TS wagon.

[Magua]

Tywin Lannister's claim is bullshit.
You want my opinion on that now or with the read?

Now.

[Magua]

Oh, hello Magua.

[Seinfield voice]Andrius![/Seinfeld voice]

Yes. That all makes sense.

But I do not see the leap that goes from that (Tywin knew Tyrion exists and is town) to the conclusion (Tywin claim is fake).

Enlighten me.

[Magua]

Sorry, I've never actually seen Seinfeld.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98dai6CC5BA&NR=1

Also, in this thread, I misspell Seinfeld three different ways in the same post.

Because he DIDN'T know that Tywin exists and was town.

Besides, its a bulletproof claim.
I'm not well versed on the other going-ons (and can't even tell you WHO claimed Tywin at this point in the read, to be honest), but I had to put that out there now.

Evidence for the bolded part please.

[Magua]

My bad. I thought you, y'know, had something. Because, y'know, you said you did.

How about you vote Nexus while you do your reread then?

[Magua]

I mean, I won't go so far as to outguess Faracore, but I'm fairly certain the whole "you know XXX to be town" is bollocks from Tywin (whoever he is, again, isn't paying THAT much attention to new stuff).

"You know

character name

to be town" is a far cry from "You know

player name

to be town"

You can always vote Nexus now, and then unvote him when you've finished your reread.

@Twilight Sparkle:

Raivann plays like Furcolow. Agree or disagree?

[Magua]

Oh, and while I've got your attention, what made you put the brakes onto the Zdenek lynch D2?

Your post is all "Stay tuned" but all I saw after that was stuff from you about me that I ignored, and stuff from you about Raivann that I ignored.

[Magua]

aahh you're lucky MoI flipped scum or that'd be a paddilin'

Lucky? What if I like paddlin'?

Now, onto lynching's stuff. Since we won't be able to talk to anyone not at our table once the wedding starts, I thought I'd post this so everyone will know where I (and my votes) stand.

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I'm no Benmage. I'm not a governor. I'm just a caveman. I fell on some ice and later got thawed out by some of your scientists. Your world frightens and confuses me! Sometimes the honking horns of your traffic make me want to get out of my BMW.. and run off into the hills, or wherever.. Sometimes when I get a message on my fax machine, I wonder: "Did little demons get inside and type it?" I don't know! My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts. But there's one thing I do know:

I will not be lynching the following people today:
4) Locke Lamora: Confirmed town by way of lyncher target and flavor.
10) Hasdgfas: Confirmed town by way of dayvigged mafia.
11) LynchMePls: Relatively sure he's town. As scum/SK, very easy for him to just say "Yeah, I vigged Magna 'cause I'M THE BATMAN". Sure enough that I'm not lynching him today.
13) Raivann: Not Stark, and if he's the SK, he's doing a bang-up job.
14) Shadow1psc: Town.
15) Zdenek: Non-Stark, and mod-meta leads me to believe non-SK as well (as I'd either expect that to show up in the rolecop report, or for the rolecop report to be empty, like it was for danakillsu)
24) Kast: Busts out of nowhere with his rolecop claim. And rolecop doesn't sit right with me compared to the other town PRs seen so far. That said, he's *confirmed* rolecop (by both danakillsu and Zdenek). I'm content to let him get NK'ed, or, failing that, listen to his reports until lylo, and then maybe lynch him.
25) Bunnylover: Not Stark. Also, let this be known for the records, if it was an SK who killed Magna last night, that clears Bunny of being the SK as well, due to being the Envoy.

The dreaded "Meh" category
5) Benmage: Liked early D2 taking charge. Liked "no lynching Raivann/BunnyLover." Liked him voting Twilight Sparkle. Didn't like the fall-off when the Feysal/Zdenek wagons began to form. Don't have anything yet today to go by.
9) Danakillsu: If he's scum, he's a goon.
18) Twilight Sparkle: Tomorrow I'll know for sure on this one.
20) Song of ice and fire Thor665: Despite my proposal of marriage, may still be scum. Or may not be. I dunno. Love blinds.
21) GreyICE DTMaster popsofctown: Initial GreyICE townread continues to go downhill.
22) DrippingGoofball: Absolutely impossible for me to read. But, (and God do I put a lot of store by this) diddin's only townread D1. Scum buddy up to townies, not to partners. So that keeps her out of the 'scum' bucket.

I will enthusiastically lynch these people:
3) Nexus: Scum.
6) Percy Ghostlin Andrius: Very likely scum.
19)Mikujin Setael: Displays a lot of the same behaviors that Raivann/BunnyLover do, but without the scum also voting him. If not scum (I waver back and forth), at least not a townread.

[Magua]

We have hypocop out there so... I can see a scum rolecop.

As can I. Rolecop is pretty much the only reason I can come up with why we'd have confirmed-town-hasdgfas and confirmed-town-Locke on Day 1 who are both still alive now. I mean, an xvart kill? The mind boggles.

Still, either his reports are going to be legit (which will help with finding the serial killer) or he's faking on his partners and then there's the possibility that a stray kill will out him.

A lot of this is based off the discrepancy in the PR strength that I've seen -- Stark is getting "normal" PRs. Town is getting 1-shots, conditionals (assuming Zdenek is real), and really, really weak roles like Voyeur.

Why is this a good reason to be in the "meh" column? How many Stark PRs do you think there are going to be?

At the moment, I'm going with "all of the Starks are going to be PRs". Every single one of them has been a PR that is usually associated with the town.

-Why are Raivann and Bunnylover off the lynch list as confirmed non-Stark, but you're going to "wait and see" another day on us? And why does MoI flipping jailkeeper (as opposed to Stark) change your read on us?

I give Magna a lot more leeway in his bussing ability than I do the other scum so far, so even though the behavior is the same, I can still see scum motivation behind it. Call me paranoid. As for why the jailkeeper flip matters, I'll explain tomorrow.

[Magua]

So you expect the SK to have NO extra power whatsoever? "You are a mafia B goon. You have no partners, though, good luck beating the 5 man scumteam i put in the game with every single member having a power. I'm an evil, evil moderator, go to hell."

I expect a serial killer to have a nightkill. The rolecop on Zdenek is "Modified Nightkill Immune." No mention of a nightkill.

I would expect an SK who is rolecopped to either come up as, "Modified Nightkill Immune Nightkiller" *or* "Vanilla" depending upon investigation immunity dynamics. I would not expect them to come up with only *part* of their role.

Your attitudes toward danakillsu and zdenek seem rather inconsistent with eachother.

How so? Dana could be a Stark goon. Zdenek, IMO, cannot possibly be Stark. Where's the inconsistency?

[Magua]

You know who's missing from your lists?

Nexus.

[Magua]

Also, your stance on Zdenek knowing Chesskid puzzles and confuses me.

If Zdenek's role is as-claimed, and Zdenek is town, then Zdenek should know that Chesskid is town. Yes, lovely, agreed.

Where do you see Zdenek act like this is *not* the case?

[Magua]

Your summary of the game looks correct, and really should enforce the belief that Thor is scummy. Yes there was a lot of material to cover, but even less so than Andrius just did, and I'm quite convinced he didn't read it all, just skimmed. This is a dumb move as town or scum, but a much more likely move from scum, who don't have to worry so much about analyzing every little thing said, and can coast.

I want to see if I'm reading this right:
- Thor took a long time (many days) to complete his reread of some 40 pages or so.
- Andrius took less than 24 hours to complete his reread of some 60 pages or so.
- Scum are more likely to skim; town are more likely to actually read.
- Thor is scum, Andrius is town.

Do I have your argument correct?

[Magua]

Zdenek may not have known [[chesskid = Tyrion]] but he knew Tyrion and WITH BASIC BRAINS he could have figured out chesskid = Tyrion as I outlined in the last part of the wall.

Look, I'll lay this out simple. You keep saying "Zdenek should have known Tyrion is town, Zdenek should have known Chesskid was Tyrion, Zdenek should have known Chesskid was town. I'm not arguing this.

What I'm asking is, why are you saying it? When I read you say "Zdenek should've known Chesskid was town," I expect there to be a *reason* for you to say it. Something Zdenek did that made you think, "Why would Zdenek-who-should've-known-Chesskid-was-town do that?" I keep missing this. I'm not looking for a Zdenek ISO or Zdenek connections or anything like that. I'm asking, why do you keep saying "Zdenek should've known Chesskid was town"? What are you trying to show?

-Assuming you meant Magua's towntell on shadow, I'm not giving much weight to it. It's plausible Shadow is being honest. It's also possible he's reacting to the sample role PM. For me, I had no clue who the Lannisters were, and I asked the mod if Lannister equals town prior to reading the thread/sample role PM. I find it plausible that someone else could see red font and think mafia.

I got my role PM. I saw "Lannister" and the bold red font. I sent a reply PM to the mods asking, "So, I'm like a traitor, right? I win with the mafia but don't know who my partners are."

Shadow mentioning having this same reaction is a tell so specific to /this/ setup that I place an incredible amount of weight on it, as he was the first to voice it in the thread.

That's not how it works

and I don't buy for one second that you believe it would

. Anyone who comes up as "Modified Nightkill Immune Nightkiller" is OBVIOUSLY an SK. Someone coming up as "Modified NK Immune" is still fairly damning but leaves some wiggle room.

Bolded for emphasis. So you believe that Zdenek is the SK and that I'm...what, defending him? Because...I'm his partner? If you think I don't believe what I'm saying, what, exactly, do you think I'm trying to achieve here?

pops is mod-confirmed town.

So, hypothetically: If we lynched you, and you came up town, we'd have two mod-confirmed town (popsofctown and Benmage), yes? This is what you're saying?

[Magua]

Something is telling me that Benmage should use the hand of the king now instead of continuing to hold on to it.

Why?

Tell me the fear you have.

[Magua]

Magua-
Is this the Shadow post you're talking about?

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=16004

FWIW I've never been scum here (I was hoping to get it this game and was excited when my role came up Lannister... then went 'awwww').

Yes.

[Magua]

More of a gut feeling then actual logical reasoning.
The only reason I can see Benmage keeping the power is because he has an investigation role.
Its not on urgent were going to lose this game if Benmage doesn't use the power today, but it could come down to the situation.

Tell me how it could come down to that situation.

[Magua]

If you think I don't believe what I'm saying, what, exactly, do you think I'm trying to achieve here?

This is just a bad argument aimed at avoiding the point your posted argument is ridiculous/gibberish. The point is that it's completely unbelievable and inconsistent with all the rest of your posts.

To answer your surface question, you're clearly posting some very out of character gibberish/crap-logic to defend Zdenek. To answer your implicit question, There's a vast array of possible explanations, some very obvious ones if you are scum, other still pretty damn obvious ones if you're just stubborn/ornery town, and even more if you're just not thinking clearly (which is possible given you posted something very clearly not thought through).

I am telling you

flat out

that I do not think Zdenek is an SK. You say that I'm obviously lying.

Do you think I'm scum? Yes/no.

@Magua: What, so the fact I'm pushing a lynch on the "easy" lynches makes me scum? Perhaps I'm pushing them because they're the ones I most vehemently believe in? Jeez. I'm sorry, would you rather me find a scummy post of someone town (let's say Benmage for argument's sake) and push and push it, even though he's obviously not scum, but because he's a difficult to lynch that makes me townier? Bull.

No, it's the fact that you're pushing *only* on the easy lynch. And the fact that no one's pushing on yours. It's odd, but people seem to go out of their way to not comment on you. Everyone else, there's lots of people who will pick up on the smallest of details and harp on them, but your posts don't. You've made little impression on anyone. You're in everyone's nullread.

That is, you're an active lurker. And yet, no one calls you on this. I prod Andrius three times about you before he starts his reread and he still manages to not have you in his list of reads.

Also, your entire reaction to Benmage is the exact same as diddin's reaction to me D1.

[Magua]

@Andrius:

You're entirely certain that Nexus' claim isn't fake?

Not real enthused about the wedding mechanic, or what's going to happen therein. I have to agree with Benmage's vote that right now we just seem to be killing time until it happens because some people want to claim to their quicktopic instead of the thread at large for reasons that I don't really comprehend, and then, I'm going to go out on a limb here, Raivann will be lynched.

I'm seriously contemplating lynching DGB because of this:

So, hypothetically: If we lynched you, and you came up town, we'd have two mod-confirmed town (popsofctown and Benmage), yes? This is what you're saying?

That, my friend, is a fact.

That's a combination of my annoyance at the playstyle, the lack of a townread on DGB, and a willingness to call the bluff if it's all a fake claim to begin with. It's tempered by diddin's buddying to DGB D1. In the meantime, I'll go with my second scum read, because I approve of the Nexus-rb's-Zdenek plan:

UNVOTE: Nexus
VOTE: Andrius

[Magua]

So let's recap.

You're considering lynching me

despite

the fact that my role PM states that Benmage is town.
You're considering lynching me

despite

the fact that I received a hypocop clear of DTM/pops.
You're considering lynching me

despite

the fact that I said that my death would confirm the two statements above to be true.

I don't like your use of "

willingness to call the bluff if it's all a fake claim to begin with

" because you have to consider that I'm town, and not a PR, in which case you can't expect me to say anything different. It's more than a little disingenuous.

Replace

despite

with

because of

and you have it exactly right. If you're lying, you're lying, if you're telling the truth, then that means we can lynch an unclear to gain two clears. Both possibilities are very attractive reasons for me.

[Magua]

Setael lynch is waaaay more preferable for me than a Raivann lynch.

Other than that, just killing the nine hours or so until the wedding.

[Magua]

I'd love to hear what so fully converted you to my lynch. I find this really suspect since no one has given anything but crap arguments.

Shifting attention to me just seems like a distraction from Raivann. Of those who are listing me as scum with weak/contrived reasons {Raivann, dana, Andrius, zedenek, DGB, magua} at least one is scum (I'm looking at Raivann) and one is probably SK (hi, Zed!).

Nothing has "converted" me to your lynch. I have an anti-Stark read on Raivann, and a nullread on you. If the choice is between lynching Raivann and you, I will lynch you.

I'd rather just lynch Zdenek because if he's not the SK the SK controls whether or not Zdeneck is lynched next and we are potentially throwing away a town RB that probably could have better uses.

Disagree.

If Zdenek is the SK, he gets roleblocked. No kills.
If Zdenek is *not* the SK, the SK must then either kill, which will clear Zdenek of being the SK, or not kill.

[Magua]

If he isn't the SK, and there is no kill we lynch him and the SK has controlled both a roleblock and a lynch.

And lost a kill. I gladly trade "a roleblock" for "a kill".

Both your #2 and #3 scenarios represent a win, FMPOV.

[Magua]

The SK does not "get a NK on a bulletproof townie". The SK loses a kill on anyone. Consider the cases if Zdenek is not the SK, and the SK chooses to no-kill to frame Zdenek:

1) We lynch Zdenek today. SK kills target #1. Tomorrow we lynch lynch #1. SK kills target #2.
2) We do not lynch Zdenek today, but instead lynch lynch #1. SK chooses to nokill. Tomorrow, we lynch Zdenek, SK kills target #1.

The difference between those two is that situation #1 results in the SK getting one more kill.

[Magua]

VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion

[Magua]

UNVOTE: Andrius
VOTE: Setael

[Magua]

Spoiler: Vote Setael

VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion

Spoiler: Vote Locke Lamora

VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Setael

[Magua]

Spoiler: Vote Magua Vote Raivann

VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard 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Spoiler: Vote Twilight Sparkle Vote Raivann

UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion 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MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion

Spoiler: Vote Eddard Stark

VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion

[Magua]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Setael

[Magua]

@DGB:

In case you missed it, please reply to Benmage's question in #2126 about your hypocop results.

Table C did nothing. I talked a lot with Raivann, but he was all over the place in terms of his suspicions -- boiled down to, at the end, whoever voted him most recently moved to the top of his scumlist. No really useful insights there.

Danakillsu and hasdgfas were almost entirely absent. LynchMePls was present and talked, but nothing really happened. No claims were made.

Odd....we don't have a doctor?

What does this have to do with anything?

Benmage/Magua not being dead is somewhat odd. :S

Explain why it's odder than, say, hasdgfas and Locke Lamora not being dead?

ON the subject of Kast, I'm wondering if his town-flip would confirm Zdenek; wouldn't Zdenek come out as Serial Killer or something? :S

Didn't I make this exact argument yesterday? Seriously?

Anyways, trial by combat. Here's how we throw down. We're going to pick two people -- the scummiest person, and the second-scummiest person. In this scenario, I will use Setael as the scummiest person and Andrius as the second-scummiest person, because I can.

We lynch the SECOND SCUMMIEST person -- Andrius. Say I'm first on the wagon.

Andrius is told to chose the SCUMMIEST person -- Setael -- as his champion. If he does, great; I choose someone else, we all vote to kill Setael, and both Setael and Andrius die. Town gets a double-lynch.

If he does not -- if instead he picks, say, hasdgfas -- then *I* pick the SCUMMIEST person -- Setael -- and everyone still votes for Setael to die. Then, the next day, Andrius will be lynched. Town doesn't get a double lynch, but town did get the lynch of the scummiest player, and gets confirmed scum for tomorrow.

End result is that if we lynch the SECOND SCUMMIEST person, we guarantee the death of the SCUMMIEST person today, and the death of the second scummiest person either today or tomorrow, depending on if they follow the plan or not.

VOTE: Andrius

[Magua]

pops' plan nets us a scummy-lynch. It's an elaborate way of bypassing the duel.

My plan is better in that it will either get us two scummy-lynches, or get us a scummy-lynch and a confirmed-scum-lynch-the-next-day. That is, it makes the duel work to our advantage.

[Magua]

Benmage, I'd like to hear what you received now.

DGB: FYPOV, who's mafia? There's at least three left, so if you don't want Setael, who do you want?

[Magua]

Andrius is 100% out of the equation

I'm past the point of caring about softclaims. What is the report that you received?

What's your read on Andrius? What's your read on me? Did you pick us as your scums for this example "because you can" or because you have scum reads on us both? Seems you were at least serious about thinking Andrius is scum since you voted him. Are we to assume that I am now your #1 scummiest read in the game? Last thing you said about me is that you had a nullread and were only voting me to avoid voting Raivann, so I find this odd.

Probable scum. Probable scum. Scum reads on you both. Yes. No, I did not say that, I said that Raivann said that.

And before you ask, and because you obviously couldn't be arsed to look it up, beginning of D3.

Bunnylover is a terrible choice, as she is not Stark. posofctown has this hypocop thing clearing him, so waiting on that. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Andrius is in the same state. That's rather few people left to be the scum: Setael, DGB, Thor, Twilight Sparkle, danakillsu, Benmage is about it.

[Magua]

ANDRIUS IS UNTOUCHABLE. Magua. Trust me on this my friend.

See how I have you in "the dwindling list of people who could be scum"? So, no, I'm not going to just take your word for it. Out the report you received.

Here's where you said it (on March 21, several days after the post you linked to).

Yes, you are my #1 scumread in the game, based on PoE. I had three scumreads starting D3: Nexus, Andrius, and you, in that order. I pushed Nexus, he claimed roleblocker, lynch fell apart.

So I move to Andrius. No love for that wagon, which is interesting, but then the wedding happened, and impossible to push. So that left you.

Opening behavior of today moves you ahead of Andrius in terms of scumreads, so there we are.

I'm a bit surprised Dana was quiet, and I was wondering if Hascow's restriction carried into the QT (I imagine it did), but I set up all the tables in such a way that there should have been town in each, and I was looking for the first sign of tomfoolery with the morse code thing, and possible misrepping.

Hascow's restriction did carry into the QT.

I want to know what Setael did in the wedding QT that was so townie.

[Magua]

Yeah, a town voting bloc by day. Until tonight where some of them are BONED. Oh, and did I mention the whole "challenge" thing going on today? where, if we find a scumbag, we have to give up a townie to actually lynch the fucker? Seriously, if we can net a scumbag guaranteed I'll step out and volunteer my neck for the 1:1.

Read my plan. We are definitively getting our choice of persons lynched, and in addition to that, we either get a second lynch or a confirmed scum.

Andrius, clarify for me your thoughts about hasdgfas as scum.
- Scum can have a dayvig power. I can agree with this. It's not unheard of, and there was one in Last Will II Mafia.
- Scum who has dayvig power will announce it in thread. Shakier on this one. I see little motivation for scum to do this. Reaching back to Last Will II Mafia, we kept the day vig in reserve for more use as a vengeful kill / emergency PR silencer.
- Scum who has dayvig power will announce it in thread and will then shoot a lurking scummember when several people suggested other targets.

I guess my main problem here is, if you have Hasdgfas-scum who has already claimed to be a dayvig, why does he shoot Xtoxm instead of Raivann or Zoraster?

[Magua]

@Twilight Sparkle:

Wonderful. You've outlined my plan from a few pages back. =P

@Bunnylover:

Who *did* you protect N1/N2, especially N1?

Claim: Walder Frey.

1 shot vigilante.

I shot diddin N1.

This impacts two things:
1) I'm very believing in LMP's claim, since it's essentially the same as my own.
2) There's no unexplained kill N1, which is why I don't think there's a serial killer.

[Magua]

Bunnylover protected Benmage N1 makes me sad. Andrius: You have it mod-confirmed that Benmage is town?

No. Wait. Duh. Your third is DGB, yes? You have it modconfirmed that DGB is town, who has it modconfirmed that Benmage is town?

I was pretty certain that the N1 doc save would be mafia.

Magua, what's your read on us? (Us being Twilight Sparkle.)

No, I'm not just conceited. Did you come to any new revelations, recently?

Also, I don't think you ever answered our question about whether your vote for Nexus on D2 was a deliberate trap to lead people off our wagon.

Scumread D1. Scumread D2. When I saw that you weren't going to get lynched, I softclaimed pretty hard that I was going to shoot you N2, expecting that if you were mafia I would die and if you weren't I would live. Magna being a jailkeeper messed with that plan, so I just kept it up another day.

I was thinking that if Kast was mafia, I might've been rolecopped and the threat empty. But since Kast wasn't mafia, and I'm still not dead, I'm inclined to believe that you are not scum.

[Magua]

I saw in my preview edit that the third was DGB. I don't care. I'm happy with myself for having slotted that together and you can't take that away from me.

[Magua]

Assuming that each and every one of the Kettleblacks confirms eachother, that makes

Confirmed Town
----
4) Locke Lamora - Gregor, confirmed by flavor and lyncher.
5) Benmage - Kettleblack
6) Percy Ghostlin Andrius - Kettleblack
10) Hasdgfas - Dayvig on scum. Don't care what Andrius says.
22) DrippingGoofball - Kettleblack

Town
----
3) Nexus
11) LynchMePls - I totally believe his claim.
14) Shadow1psc
15) Zdenek - I do not believe there is a SK.
21) GreyICE DTMaster popsofctown - Going with DGB's mod message.
25) Bunnylover - Doctor.

Lynch
----
9) Danakillsu - Would do him last.
18) Twilight Sparkle
19)Mikujin Setael
20) Song of ice and fire Thor665

Did I miss TS' claim?

UNVOTE: Andrius
VOTE: Setael

[Magua]

Magua I claimed for TS as TS claimed to me in the QT...like I claimed for SHadow

How do you not of Zdenek as a potential scum GF than?

Oh, I see the claims now.

Zdenek as GF...requires certain hoops. Can't be Tywin Lannister at that point; who else would flavorwise gain from Tyrion being dead? It *would* explain chesskid dying N1 (although I am perfectly content for that to be because Magna would want him dead).

In the end, though, I would just expect scum to start out bulletproof and be done with it. It fits in with the rest of the PRs better, it fits theme better. Kast got killed because scum were afraid of him rolecopping somebody. If rolecopping doesn't include faction abilities, where's the fear and the motivation? Town was sort of swimming in confirmeds even before the Kettleblack claims -- killing Kast over a confirmed tells me that rolecopping a scum shows something incriminating. Also makes me less believing in danakillsu-scum.

[Magua]

I'm going to bet $10 and say that xvart vigged Magna N2, by the way.

[Magua]

Wasn't MoI very intrigued about overkill?

Who was it that suggested LMP could've been scum who sent the NK in?

You're looking for this post by Magna. Extremely mild defense of LMP is what I get out of that. I'm ignoring it.

Though I'll point out another Bunnylover towntell that MoI quotes in that post:

@Everyone else: Should we assume now that their is two scum teams, and one of the teams where blocked?

This screams doc-wanting-to-confirm-they-saved.

[Magua]

I approve of lynch Setael, Setael gets Thor to champion, double-lynch Thor/Setael plan.

If Setael chooses anyone but Thor, Benmage chooses Thor, Thor dies and we lynch Setael tomorrow.

Bunnylover protects amongst Benmage, Andrius, DGB.

Nexus roleblocks amongst: LynchMePls, Shadow1psc, Zdenek, Magua, Danakillsu, Twilight Sparkle, Setael (if he's still alive)

[Magua]

At this point, you *are* the last claim except for Locke Lamora, who is pretty much confirmed town. So why don't you go ahead?

Everyone with claimed night actions has posted their histories.

[Magua]

Strike that, Setael hasn't claimed. So, yeah. I'd prefer pops to claim now anyways, but that's just me. I'm impatient.

LMP claimed 1-shot vig D3. He hasn't nameclaimed, but considering that fakeclaims are given to scum, I don't think we'd learn anything based off of his name claim anyways.

[Magua]

Incest.

...is the best?

[Magua]

Close. Pops is Jaime.

[Magua]

Maybe I'm just a really good guesser?



















Maybe not.

[Magua]

I was pretty certain that the N1 doc save would be mafia.

Uhm, if you killed diddin, and I killed CK, and the doc save was mafia, why would the mafia have targeted one of their own. DOES NOT COMPUTE.

What? BunnyLover claimed doctor, I thought, "Whoever she saved N1 is mafia!" She saved Benmage, who can't be mafia, so the whole thing doesn't work anyway, but I still don't understand the "why would mafia have targeted one of their own" in your quote above.

Anyways, as far as I can tell, danakillsu still needs to nameclaim and pops needs to roleclaim.

[Magua]

This is what doesn't make sense. The only missing kill N1 was mafia, so how did you arrive at this thought? It doesn't make sense.

I see now. You're not a one-shot vig, you're a one-shot CPR doctor. I glossed over that. I was assuming that Chesskid was double-shot by you and mafia, but with the CPR doctor claim that can't be. So that's means Starks tried to kill Benmage and failed.

This gets better and better. I'm starting to feel sorry for the scum.

[Magua]

Margery Tyrell's mother poisons Joff. One of the Kettleblacks does help Sansa escape, but since Littlefinger is already confirmed Lannister aligned and organized the whole thing, I think we're fine there.

CPR saves his target if they would die, but kills them if they were not targeted for a kill. LMP claiming CPR doc means that Starks (nor this mythical SK) could have shot Chesskid N1.

[Magua]

Margery Tyrell's mother poisons Joff.

Quote? Pretty sure it's her GRANDMOTHER, which is Olenna Tyrell.

Mother, grandmother, whatever.

Shadow is town.

[Magua]

So the only thing we're missing is danakillsu's name claim.

[Magua]

Pops, Shadow is town. This isn't based on setup, this is just recognizing town-play when I see it.

Going by the information that we have, I'm betting that either you or Shadow were jailkept by Magna N2. DGB did announce it'd been modconfirmed to her that you were town, so I can easily see a jailkeeping thrown in your direction N2.

[Magua]

If there is not at least two scum in (Thor, Setael, danakillsu, Twilight Sparkle), I will eat my hat. Benmage, let's do this.

[Magua]

Magua can totally take Thor on. I mean, just look at my expression. LOOK AT IT. Thor's expression is all "Hmmm, I wonder what sort of daisies I should plant in my flower garden," and my expression is, "I will eat your still beating heart after I have carved it from your chest."

You know it's true.

[Magua]

Well, you wouldn't want to be me, forgetting about the game and having 12 pages to read. But since Setael's not at L-1 anymore,

vote: Setael

.
Yeah, you're right, I have no soul.

Nameclaim please.

Also, Thor: Why you have to wear all that armor? Scared?

[Magua]

Also, I believe the remaining scum are in the Vanilla claimees and the 1shot Vig claimees.
Oh, and Zdenek is the SK.

If LynchMePls is a 1-shot CPR doc, then that clears Zdenek of being the SK *or* scum. Unless you think Zdenek-SK-scum would say, "I become bulletproof if Tyrion dies. Chesskid has claimed Tyrion. I'm going to not kill him." Remember, LMP's claim means that *no one else tried to kill Chesskid N1*.

The most suspicious roleclaim is BunnyLover claiming doctor. Look at all of the other Stark PRs -- they're all "town" PRs. I expect further roles will be Watcher, things like that. Doctor fits right in. If I didn't have such strong BL-is-not-Stark leanings and if it wasn't a near certainty that BL will be dead before lylo anyways, I'd be throwing my suspicion in that direction.

And you've got a real problem with me being scum, because then who shot diddin?

[Magua]

It's a great claim. In this case, it means we should definitely lynch LMP before Zdenek, though, which does make it suboptimal for LMP if he's scum. =P

ITT, Magua lines up lynches.

Worst Lynch
----
5) Benmage - For any Kettleblack to be mafia, they'd *all* have to be mafia. BunnyLover pretty much confirms Benmage as town if she flips town doctor. LMP pretty much confirms Benmage as town if he flips 1-shot CPR doc. Revisit paranoia about Kettleblack-mafia if we get to 9 players and there's been no further scum flips and none of (Benmage, Andrius, DGB, LMP, BunnyLover) have died.
6) Percy Ghostlin Andrius - Kettleblack
22) DrippingGoofball - Kettleblack
10) Hasdgfas - Dayvigged scum, don't care what Andrius says
21) GreyICE DTMaster popsofctown - Friendly neighbor
16) Magua - I shot diddin.
14) Shadow1psc - My strongest townread, and very townie PR claim
3) Nexus - Roleblocker
25) Bunnylover - Doctor
4) Locke Lamora - Lyncher target
15) Zdenek - Will be cleared if LMP flips 1-shot CPR doctor
11) LynchMePls - If he flips 1-shot CPR doc, clears Zdenek, clears Benmage
9) Danakillsu - If Thor or Setael flip goon, I would move Dana to underneath Twilight Sparkle
18) Twilight Sparkle
20) Song of ice and fire Thor665
19) Mikujin Setael - I would prefer that we lynch Thor and he nominates Setael, but whatever
----
Best Lynch

[Magua]

Er...what? I mean, I understand each of your words, but the meaning of your post escapes me.

[Magua]

Who would you prefer to pick?

[Magua]

4) Just a thought. There are situations in which it's better to take advantage of a possible double lynch and vote out a non-Thor suspect with Setael (who would be confirmed scum in this case) than Thor alone (whose alignment would be unknown). Otherwise, I'm fine with the plan.

If Setael's not going to go with the plan, he's going to pick a confirmed town as his champion.

I was in the camp that believed Zdenek's claim at first, but I've changed my mind based on his play today and on PoE. One possibility is that Zdenek is scum who becomes bulletproof under some other circumstances (say, another character dies), and tried to come up with another.

Willing to burn this bridge as I come to it. It could be a fakeclaim, yes. But then he's SK. I do not believe he's Stark at all. I don't believe he's SK at all, either, but I can at least accept the idea theoretically.

Who do you think shot MagnaofIllusion?

xvart. Think I said this.

Go on. ISO xvart. Come back and tell me with a straight face that if xvart had a one-shot kill related to his Jack of Some Trades ability, he'd use it on MoI of all people on N2, over Raivann, danakillsu, Bunnylover, Zdenek, etc...

So do you agree or disagree with this conclusion?

Nope. I see nothing in his ISO that supports my theory. And yet, there it is. I don't think there's an SK, and there's no other theory that makes sense. I *was* fully expecting there to be another 1-shot killing role lying around, but there's not. So I go with the next.

Because I can see a blatant scum agenda behind insisting that there's no SK, so therefore you're confirmed and no one should suspect you.

If I'm scum, then that makes two unexplained kills, yes? *That* would be a good argument for there being an SK. As a scum, I would want that SK lynched, right?

Or is your theory here that I know there's an SK, I know that that SK has to die for me to win, and then I completely and totally throw myself into saying there's not an SK,

look for ways to *clear* Zdenek-who-would-goddamn-likely-be-the-SK-if-there-were-one-not-to-mention-I-wouldn't-be-able-to-nightkill

, and also paint a target on the back that says to the SK, "Hey, I'm mafia!"?

Do you think this is my scum-plan?

Also, why do you have LMP as fifth on your suspect list when you're the one saying there are only two factions? Do you think chesskid was the Stark kill?

Chess can only be the Stark kill if LMP is lying. I have LMP on there fifth because if he flips 1-shot CPR doc he confirms Zdenek did not kill Chesskid, he confirms that Starks did not kill Chesskid, and so (by extension) he confirms that Starks did kill Benmage who was doc protected by BunnyLover.

Oh, and another thing. Your claim was just "Claim: 1-shot vig." You didn't even gloat at having taken out a baddie.

Can you give us full flavour for your role? Can you go in-depth into why you decided to shoot diddin when you did (yes, I know you suspected him, but your full thought process)? Any breadcrumbs on D1 and D2? Any on D3/4 other than the jailkeeper comment?

I gloated to the mods, though I can't prove that until after the game is over, so meh.

There's no flavor justification for why Walder Frey is a one-shot vig. The flavor is about how I'm a horrible person who betrayed the Starks. My quote is:

I’ll match him son for son and still have nineteen and a half left when all his are dead.

I shot diddin because I was pretty sure on him, and I didn't think I'd live too long. And if I was wrong, I'd rather use the vig shot than the lynch. No breadcrumbs, since I was planning on using my vig power that night, and again, didn't think I'd live long enough for it to matter.

Let's see. Hito's day 2 posts about why I was voting Nexus. Thought he was scum. Really don't have much else to say on the issue. Feel free to vote me if you think I'm scum. Fair warning is that I'll be pushing your lynch tomorrow regardless unless Setael goes and confirms himself.

[Magua]

Oh, oh, oh, follow up question!

Do you have any problems with my list? What would you change?

[Magua]

Dana and I. Got it. Pick Thor when you're lynched regardless.

Someone hammer.

[Magua]

@ Magua
Your insistence that a Setael goon flip would make me scum is terribly nonsensical. Have you so easily forgotten the fact that I've been pushing his lynch harder than anyone and for an incredibly long time? No scumbuddy buses that hard.

Nothing to do with your interaction with Setael. Goes like this:

#1. I don't think Stark has goons.

#2. If you're a Stark, you are a goon.

#3. Therefore, I'm disinclined to believe you're a Stark.

#4. But, if someone flips Stark goon, then I re-evaluate #1.

[Magua]

FFF.
I think we need a LMP flip in order to clear Zdenek though. I'm not willing to let this slide.
Bunnylover is town. I maintain that religiously.

Zdenek shot diddin? Sure as hell wasn't the Starks.
And if whoever-said-it is right then that's fine with me.

DGB, the claim is

Bulletproof

1shot CPR Doc.

I agree with Mina. Zdenek needs to be RB'd again.

I'm willing to hammer when the time comes.

And I think we should have a beef BBQ out of HasCow when this is all over and he actually flips scum.

Andrius, you make me sad sometimes.

I shot diddin.

LMP claims 1-shot CPR doc, not Zdenek.

Hammer now please.

[Magua]

Magua sees me postin'... he cryin'

I got that.

Magua does not cry. Magua sheds a single, solitary tear.

[Magua]

I got a message from the mod saying that popsofctown is mod-confirmed Jaime Lannister. Jus' sayin'.

Also, it is mod confirmed that I am better than Thor:

Thor lay dead on the ground. Beaten by the better man.

VOTE: Setael I can't believe I ever agreed to be your champion. Must've been drunk.

Other stuff: With the second kill, I am considering that there is a serial killer (ARE YOU HAPPY, TWILIGHT?) Interested in hearing from the "Zdenek is SK crowd": Do you think Nexus RB'ed someone else, or do you think Zdenek is clear of being the SK now?

[Magua]

Bunnylover, LynchMePls:

What happens if your target is hit by more than one killer?

@Shadow: I disagree. Confirmed-town-Andrius makes perfect sense as a Stark kill. Nexus only really makes sense as an SK kill -- Stark don't need to care about Nexus as long as he's continually roleblocking Zdenek, and they could easily shoot him in the event Zdenek gets lynched. The only reason I can see for Stark to want to kill Nexus is if there's only two of them left -- Setael + someone else -- and they're scared of the final Stark getting roleblocked after Setael gets lynched.

[Magua]

Heavy suspicion that Locke Lamora is the SK.

[Magua]

Heavy suspicion that Locke Lamora is the SK.

Oh yeah, why?

Very little input. His posts about popsofctown read to me like someone annoyed that someone else is being cleared by the town (he does this with Raivann as well). Nexus believes Raivann because of Raivann's name claim. LL responds with "That's stupid, don't do that." Not, "That's stupid, don't do that, Raivann's scum" (LL says he doesn't think Raivann is scum nearby). Just the "That's bad play" and that's it. LL's taken few stances, fencesits a lot. Complains about what's going on but doesn't try to change it (especially his last post).

@Magua: Is their a reason you want to know that?

Yes. Also, it's "there".

If that's the case, I think LMP still makes sense as a killing role that isn't vig (IE, stark, SK). Why would LL be SK, why would a lyncher have an SK target?

I have large doubts that an SK would claim a kill D2 unprovoked. I have further doubts that an SK would expand on their claim D4 in a way that moves to clear someone (Zdenek) under suspicion. Easy enough to have kept his claim as a one-shot vig. Reading LMP, I feel the same motivations with what I wanted to do -- having used his power, he wanted to make himself a target to the mafia and get shot.

As for the lyncher having SK as target -- why not?

[Magua]

lol I fail at grammar sorry.
The person I protect gets only one freebe. Meaning I can only stop one kill per night, so if two people targeted him, he dies.

So the SK and mafia could not have both shot Benmage.

hasdgfas, who are your suspects?

[Magua]

Setael is probably scum with Magua.

I couldn't agree more.

Yawn. You're bad at this.

Magua who was pushing against this theory for the longest time just ate face. In fact the most likely reason for Nexus to not have RB’d Zdenek would have been because of Magua.

Explain why Magua-scum would *want* an SK killing. Doubly, explain why Magua-scum-who-is-lying-about-killing-diddin-so-is-confirming-himself-as-scum-to-the-SK would want an SK killing.

Thirdly, but this can wait, you'll have to explain why Magua-scum is not going to let Zdenek be lynched tomorrow.

[Magua]

unvote

Not ready for day to end.

Maybe we should consider lynching zdenek. Reducing the deaths at night could be nice. I don't see him as town at all, there's no way a townie goes bulletproof for the rest of the game. Remember the massclaim? We're already loaded.

Who do you think Nexus roleblocked last night?

[Magua]

zdenek

But maybe scum shot zdnek for good measure.

You can't think that Nexus rb'ed Zdenek *and* be advocating a Zdenek lynch at the same time.

Actually, my theory is that Magua is the SK. Why? Aside from that I've found his interactions re: the existence of an SK and the execution of his claim very phony, I think it's likely Nexus RB'd Zdenek again, given he followed orders last time (perhaps Kast was double-killed on N3, or the SK targeted Twilight Sparkle). Also, I can believe Magua as diddin's killer, and some of his scumhunting has felt genuine. He's definitely played a great game if he's group scum.

I feel way less rage at being called the SK than scum.

I'm not the SK, but if I were, I could take a great deal of satisfaction out of the fact that would mean I shot 2 scum while you all have managed to lynch zero. Sadly, I can only claim to have shot 1 scum while you all have lynched zero.

Also, if I'm scumbuddies with Setael, then that means that I bussed D1 (Diddin), D3 (Setael), D4 (Setael), and D5 (Setael). This would make me the best partner ever.

[Magua]

I hear that's really good strat for powerrole.scumteam

It's the best when 3 of your team have been killed by D3.

vote: Setael

Maybe the scum no kill happened after all.

What are you talking about? What "no kill"?

[Magua]

Spoiler: Spoilers for this post

Twilight Sparkle is probably not Stark, and also probably right about Zdenek. God, I feel so dirty.

"Ascetic", since I was unfamiliar with it, is a role where all non-kill actions on you fail (investigations, tracks, protects, etc). Got that confirmed by the mod.

How "Ascetic" interacts with "Godfather", the mod refused to tell me. Also wouldn't tell me if the "Ascetic" was added on like Zdenek claims that Bulletproof was added on. So take that as you will.

hasdgfas, who are your suspects?

Answer, please.

Now, evaluations and whatnot:

Absolutely Town
---------------
5) Benmage - Confirmed town (Kettleblack)

21) GreyICE DTMaster popsofctown - Confirmed Jaime Lannister, and my god, if Jaime Lannister isn't town in this game, I am going to track Faraday and Seacore down and eat their babies

10) Hasdgfas - I continue to disagree with Andrius. If hasdgfas is a scum dayvig who claimed it D1 and then shot a teammate, congratu-fucking-lations, you win three internets. I maintain scum-dayvig is not impossible, but that scum dayvig would keep the shot to kill a claimed PR or similar.

14) Shadow1psc - Wedding PR aside, I maintain Shadow as my strongest townread. If he's scum, congratu-fucking-lations to him too.

The Usual Suspects
------------------

This leaves five slots that I worry about: Locke Lamora, Danakillsu, LynchMePls, Zdenek, and Twilight Sparkle. At least two of them are scum. Maybe three.

Locke Lamora:

Mod confirmed Gregor Clegane. Can't be Stark, in all good conscience. Can be SK. I admit, the more I think about this idea, the more I like it, so maybe there's some confirmation bias going on, but the only argument *against* it that I've heard is that he was the lyncher target. Not sold on that as a defense. Gamewise, his play has been poor, he's been neutral, indifferent -- classic SK play. I really am taken with this idea.

Danakillsu:

So I did some VCA over the weekend. Pop quiz: Who has been voting flipped scum more in each vote count than anyone else? Danakillsu. It's all in the Mikujin/Setael lynch agitation D1, and it never really lets up. Now, with Setael flipping Godfather, does anyone think Stark has any other investigative-immunity roles? I don't. Which means that Danakillsu would have to be a goon if he's Stark, and I still don't bloody believe that Stark has any goons.

So not Stark. SK? Meh. Possible that that would show up empty to a rolecop, but I really, really, really doubt it. His play has been aggressive, in your face. I think Dana is town.

LynchMePls:

Think he's town. Even moreso, now; scum-claiming-the-Chesskid-kill-that-they-themselves-did would explain why there seems to be a kill missing D1, but LMP's claim as CPR doc partly clears Zdenek, which only makes sense if LMP is Zdenek's partner, which doesn't make a goddamn bit of sense at all.

Zdenek:

Can't be the SK, since I totally and completely believe that Nexus was roleblocking him up until his death. I am coming around to him being Stark, however. This is, at this point, a highly process-of-elimination affair -- I simply suspect everyone else of being Stark less than him.

Twilight Sparkle:

Remember that VCA I did? Pop quiz #2: Guess who, amongst those still alive, has never voted one of the flipped scum, even once? Twilight Sparkle.

I mean, not even once. I mean, not even Setael D5. Now, this isn't a crucifying feature (Kast was the same, for instance), but still. That's just odd. TS' big pools of votes are Thor (town), Raivann (town), Zdenek (unknown), and Shadow (unknown, but still goddamn town).

The odd part is that if Twilight is scum, I'd expect to see *a few* votes for scummates here and there. Maybe one for MagnaofIllusion D2 when Magna was pushing the TS wagon. *Something.*

Looking over Magna's push on TS D2 leads me to believe it's not bussing.

TS could still be the SK, though.

VCA
---

When I say I did a VCA, I mean that I took all of the votecounts and parsed them out for X votes Y in post Z on day A. Then I could easily look for patterns.

Mafia votes: We've got four mafia. Let's analyze their votes! Sadly, it's not exactly illuminating, since two of them died before N2, but, y'know. Let's do it anyways.

Xtoxm:

Is voting xvart in 2 vote counts. 100% non-mafia vote. Then he died.

diddin:

votes Raivann in 11 vote counts (town), myself in 8 (I'm town, so bugger off), GreyICE in 5 (I'm counting him as town), and bringing it up with Zoraster (3rd party) in 1 and Benmage (town) in 1. 100% non-mafia votes. No bussing.

Both of those are pretty much useless, unless you think that diddin's voting me means something, but likely you've already made up your mind one way or the other about that awhile back.

MagnaofIllusion:

Is more interesting:
Day 1: 11 vote counts for Zoraster (3rd party), 9 for diddin (mafia, bussing), 6 for Zdenek (unknown), 1 for Benmage (town)
Day 2: 23 vote counts for Twilight Sparkle (unknown), 3 for Feysal (town).

I originally wrote Magna off as not being scum because of the D1 diddin voting. Mistake, as it turned out. So the question is, is Twilight Sparkle bussing or mislynching?

He votes diddin in #287, putting him 3rd on the diddin wagon. He unvotes diddin in #585, which is 5 real life days later, to start the Zoraster wagon, which he'll stay on until the day ends (this is before Xtoxm gets shot, btw). My read on this is he holds his vote on diddin to build up cred, but then leaves before it might go somewhere. He avoids jumping on the xvart wagon (which was leading with 5 votes at the time) but instead starts a new one of his own.

Now, D2, Magna votes Twilight Sparkle in #973, putting him second on the wagon (after me). He rides that lynch just about all day long, jumping onto Feysal only at the end in #1484. At that point, the votes are close for both wagons (Twilight has 5, Feysal has 6; Magna's vote makes that 4 and 7), but it's clear the Feysal lynch has momentum -- he claims only a few posts after Magna jumps.

Much like with diddin jumping from Raivann to Zoraster D1, I don't think that scum who are on a buddy's lynch that's not going to happen jump to the main bandwagon lynch -- if you're going to bus, seems to be better to be consistent about it and just stay on your scumbuddy's wagon, since you know a town is being lynched anyways.

Factor into this that Magna has also seen one buddy get dayvigged D1, and another get shot N1. I doubt that bussing and pushing suspicion onto a teammate is high on his list of priorities at the moment.

End result: I think Twilight is town.

Setael:

Setael is just a list of town votes:
D1: DrippingGoofball (16), Shadow1psc (8), Benmage (1)
D2: Feysal (19), Nexus (2)
D3: Raivann (13)

All of the above are confirmed town, and Shadow is really goddamn close to it.
All that leaves are votes for Zdenek: 4 on D3, 3 on D5. The D5 votes are ignorable, though -- there's no way that Setael wasn't going to be the lynch, so that's WIFOM stew right there.

TL;DR
-----

SK (in order of preference from most to least): Locke Lamora, Twilight Sparkle, danakillsu, LynchMePls (reaaaaal unlikely), Zdenek (even more unlikely)

Stark (in order of preference from most to least): Zdenek, Twilight Sparkle, LynchMePls, danakillsu (Locke is off of this list)

I think there's one Stark. I think Nexus died because it was a given that Setael was going to get lynched, and that that would leave Zdenek the last mafia.

VOTE: Zdenek

[Magua]

@Mod:

I'm voting Zdenek, not LMP.

[Magua]

Stuff: No clue on what the "modified" means. With Zdenek's earlier claim, I had assumed that modified meant that his role was not originally Bulletproof, but was modified by what happened in game (chesskid dying). That depended on Zdenek's claim being true, which I now doubt.

For Kast getting shot, I think that that's because of Setael. This is theory, as the mod won't tell me how rolecop would interact with Godfather, but the mod confirmed that if you were to rolecop an Ascetic, the action would fail. Not "return no role name", but "fail", as if he was roleblocked. So I do think Setael would fear being rolecopped.

Magua, how many Lannister VTs do you think there would be, based on the assumption that the Starks don't have any goons?

I would expect six VTs. Which, of course, I'm not seeing: Chesskid3, Raivann, Thor665 are confirmed, and Locke Lamora, Danakillsu, and Twilight Sparkle all claim VT, but unless the two remaining scum are LynchMePls and Zdenek, which I doubt, one of you has to be lying.

Are we just ignoring [danakillsu voting Bunnylover]? This is monumentally bad no matter how you look at it really. The most you could downplay this is WIFOM. Coupled with the fact though that his next post doesn't really acknowledge the faux pas with so much as a 'whoops', this really doesn't strike me as genuine as TS got from it.

It's null, IMO. Look at it this way: what's the scum motivation to do it? If he's town, it's a careless mistake. If he's scum, it's him acting like it's a careless mistake. In no way do I consider it a slip, though, because scum would be very sure to have a good case on someone they were actually going to try to push.

Having said that, I'm still not convinced on LMP. I think there is way too much town killing power. This is one of those things, where in a worst case scenario, Stark could have lost like n2. We have a 3-way confirmable group and a 4th confirmable friendly Lannister. Plus the normal set of town power, this is a really heavy game. Granted, I don't know if this is par for the course in the 'series' at this point, no one else seems to be making a fuss over the insane amount of killing power town had, but dayum.

Clash of Kings: 2 scumteams (2 kills per night), Serial Killer (1 kill per night), 1-shot dayvig, 1-shot vengeful kill, 3-shot nightkill granter.

Storm of Swords (assuming hasdgfas, I, and LMP are all town): 1 scumteam (1 kill per night), Serial Killer (1 kill per night), 1-shot dayvig, 1-shot vig, 1-shot CPR doc.

So, no, seems about par for the course (CoK had 26 players, ASoS has 24)

I wish people would go for Magua, which will get us some info, rather than the easy lynch target Zdenek. Seriously, he always looks scummy.

What info do you gain when I flip town?

[Magua]

Magua: so you think Dana and TS are really VTs and I'm the lying one?

Yes.

[Magua]

So I had a look back at ACoK to check the setup. There were 7 VTs there, with 2 PRs and two goons per scumteam. The split there was 17-4-4-1. Here you are suggesting it's 5 VTs and 5 scum, all with PRs, and I'm assuming you think Zdenek is the 5th and final Stark with some kind of kill immunity, so I guess your assumption is 17-5-1-1. As you said, 26 players in ACoK, 24 players here. What makes you think that a 2 VT drop on town's side would indicate a drop to 0 goons for scum in a team of only 5 players?

Because the setup is obviously that the mafia (Stark) are really the town, and have the town-like PR roles.

But, here's the real question. Why do you care that I don't think there are any mafia goons? This is a repeated attribute of your play in this game: you pop up again and again to say some variant of "You can't trust X."

You say Zdenek could be the SK because Nexus could have roleblocked someone else.
You say Dana could be a mafia goon.
You manage to sound miffed that the Kettleblacks were being cleared.
You say drill into Nexus that Raivann's claim may be fake.

All of these things are true, but they're the majority of what you've said. It's like you're going out of your way to make sure that suspicion can be cast on anyone.

[Magua]

@ Magua
If you flip town, we can be much surer that Locke is a good lynch candidate. If you flip scum, we've likely pretty much won the game.

...

...

...

[Magua]

I asking because I'm wondering about a connection. Your rationale for clearing Dana is partly based on there not being any scum goons. This seems like a strange attitude to take, based on what we know about this setup and the previous setup. This partially concerns me because I think it's always dangerous to make an assumption that there are the lowest possible amount of scum - numbers are always more crucial than PRs, at the end of the day - and partially because I think that you're looking for an extra reason to call Dana town, which seems unnecessary. On the other side of the coin, there's something about Dana's 'let's lynch Magua' that seems very fake. It's based on very little for a vote this late in the game; it looks like he's trying to make a point that he's voting you, who's not as easy a lynch as Zdenek. Now, both of you are relatively close to the bottom of the lynch list that a lot of players are operating off. My hunch is that you're doing your best to make sure that there's enough to confuse the connections between you that if one of you is lynched, the other is not immediately connected as a buddy. That's why I was trying to find out why you thought there were only 5 scum and none of them VTs.

Great. Do you think dana and I are partners?

As for your complaint that I am trying to cast suspicion on anyone I can, you're basically complaining that I'm exercising independent thought in the face of massive consensus and very little real scumhunting. I've found this game frustrating and I think I've been very honest about that. I've had less time than I'd like and the cases I have pushed hard have either been ignored or shot down by people with very little reasoning. For example, my Shadow case was pretty much ignored (even Shadow only responded once and then ignored the majority of my points). The 'hypocop' stuff didn't help; I'm really not a fan of people saying 'x is town because of SECRET ROLE INFO' and then sitting on it for days. Then we got to the list stage and I've already made my views clear on that. Why do you think this aspect of my play is indicative of an SK?

No, my problem with you isn't that you're exercising independent thought in the face of massive consensus. My problem is that your posts seem designed to remind people over and over again to be suspicious of everyone, even people you yourself are not suspicious of. Eg, it's not, "Nexus, you shouldn't think Raivann is town because of his nameclaim, I think Raivann is scum because of X, Y, Z", it's "Nexus, you shouldn't think Raivann is town because of his nameclaim...and oh, btw, I think Raivann is town" That's goddamn scummy.

I say SK, rather than scum, because I'm convinced that there's no way you can be Stark.

LMP is sort of correct. I was looking for a reaction from Magua, which I practically already told you guys, and which I definitely got. It wasn't a good one, to say the least. Magua, you certainly aren't trying very hard to show me you're not the wagon for today, you would rather make me look like an idiot (which I can do all by myself, thank you very much). MY VOTE STAYS.

I will summarize:
danakillsu: We should lynch Magua. We get information either way.
Magua: What information do you get when I flip town?
danakillsu: If you're scum we win, and if you're town then we can think about lynching LL.

There is literally nothing there for me to respond to that doesn't involve a lot of profanity. It is wrong on simply every conceivable level I can think of.

So, do you think Zdenek is town? Your posting says that you do. You think I'm one scum. There are at least two. Who do you think is the second?

Benmage: Sigh.

UNVOTE: Zdenek

I literally - and I mean that, literally - do not think anyone aside from Zdenek is Stark.

VOTE: Locke Lamora

[Magua]

See,

that's

why this game is incredibly frustrating. Is Benmage really confirmed town? That was so monumentally anti-town it's hard to believe (thought you'd like that, Magua).

Yes. He really is. And thanks. Knew I could count on you.

Think about your other points. Could Zdenek be SK? Yes. Could Dana be a goon? Yes. What is wrong with either of these theories? I wasn't annoyed that the Kettleblacks were cleared, I was annoyed that this game has degenerated into 'hey, let's lynch from a list'. TS has been saying 'LL could be SK' since D2. Shadow threw out the potential of LMP being scum on D3 (this is something I called him out on because I think it was immensely unproductive and clearly not a topic of discussion that was relevant at that stage). Do you think these players are scum? If not, why is what they have been doing different from my thinking 'you know what, it is possible that the scum do have a goon' or 'hey, remember when Zdenek got roleblocked and there was only one kill'?

There wasn't a massclaim until D4, so your annoyance about "lynching from a list" isn't really valid until then.

And again, there's nothing wrong with those theories. What's wrong is that you throw these theories out regardless of whether you believe them or not. It's not a matter of "dana could be a Stark goon" -- we all know dana could be a Stark goon. I, for instance, don't believe there is a Stark goon, so I don't think dana is Stark. You attack me over this, but you never say that you think dana *is* a Stark goon. You just keep throwing out "it's possible." You argue that your interest in the game has gone down since it became "lynch from a list" *in the very same post* where you're answering someone asking who *you* would like to lynch.

You say Zdenek could be the SK. But you don't say he *is* the SK, and you don't vote him. Do you think Zdenek is town? Scum? So many of your posts are fence-sitting, or laying out what's possible without an opinion. That's what gets me.

I mean, D2 starts with you being a mod-confirmed lyncher target. You could've been the clear who led the town in lynches; you could've told Benmage to sit down and shut up. But you do *neither* of these things. You seem to avoid throwing your weight around. You seem to avoid drawing attention to yourself.

And while I'm at it, what made you go from calling me confirmed town to obv-SK?

I did not, prior to D5, believe that there was an SK.

1. Kast investigation on Zdenek. Where is the argument he is scum? The people who think this believe him to be a BP scum, and obviously not the GF......wow. a simple correct will suffice.

What's the hard part to understand?

[Magua]

I've never seen a game with a fully BP scum who wasn't the GF.

How many games have you seen with scum Neighborizers and town Rolecops?

[Magua]

I could get you games like that. Not now obviously.

Great. And I can get games with scum Bulletproofs who aren't Godfathers.

Do you have any reason for thinking Zdenek is town aside from the role?

Pre-edit:

But yes, you answered my question with a question....can you answer the question, because based on your last response I am assuming no.

#2525 was pretty explicit, I thought.

[Magua]

Magua: you do know my Benmage line was a joke, right?

I was hopeful that it was.

Looking at that, my first instinct is that dayvig, nightvig, CPR doc, doc, jack of some trades and kill-immune seem unlikely to all be on the same side.

And you think the odd duck out is...?

HERE'S SOME MODWIFOM, SETAEL PROBABLY WOULD BECOME ASCETIC WHEN MAGUA DIED

Setael *was* Ascetic. And the idea that "Modified" means "Triggered at some point" *only* comes from Zdenek's claim. I ran into this same problem D3 -- I assumed that the details of Zdenek's claim were true regardless of whether he was mafia or town, and then came to the conclusion that he was town based, in part, on the details of his claim.

Would scum have shot benmage? I wouldn't have, because there's potential like today's situation to happen. Is it a possibility? Maybe. It was a good choice on BL's part, and scum could have guessed that too. I do not think they would have shot Benmage.

My working theory is that the SK shot Benmage N1, which was doc-protected, and that the mafia shot the SK, who is likely night-kill immune.

I'm going to stray into WIFOM territory here, but N1 ended with two confirmeds: hasdgfas and Locke Lamora. Neither of them died N1, and neither of them were protected by anyone town. hasdgfas claimed and executed his one shot vig, so I can see a reason for scum to not prioritize shooting him, but then the question is, who did the scum shoot? The answers are either chesskid3 (requires LMP to be scum) or someone who was protected in some form. I think they shot Locke, and the kill failed.

[Magua]

Yeah, remember my theory waaay back when, that I could see the balance of "Hey sk, you're NK AND investigation immune!...but there's a lyncher out for your blood."

Scum leaving an SK alive makes sense when there are so many confirms and the scum is so off. They can count on the sk shooting confirms.

Scum would not know there was an SK N1.

Scum prioritized shooting xvart over hasdgfas or Locke Lamora N2. This could make sense if scum knew he was a PR -- a reason I was suspicious of Kast D3 -- but doesn't make a lot of sense otherwise.

Magua: you and/or Zdenek. I don't think LMP would claim that kill unprompted to bring the increased risk of drawing an SK/scum kill, so that alleviates most of the concern I have about the presence of that role. I believe it was Mikujin who got bitten last game by claiming a PR and getting taken out by the other scumteam.

Great. We agree on LMP, at least. So now that Zdenek is off the table, why are you not voting me?

Also, you think Zoraster was given a lynch target who was also NK-immune? Really?

Yes.

[Magua]

Magua: are we in a rush?

I like people to put their vote where their mouth is. You say Zdenek or I. You can't lynch Zdenek today. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Honestly, I'm still thinking about everything and I find Dana's interactions with the flipped Starks to be more like that of a buddy than yours, so I'm not 100% sold on you being scum.

I will summarize for you dana's interaction to flipped Starks:

Xtoxm: No interaction.
diddin: No interaction.
MagnaofIllusion: No interaction.
Setael: D1: Diediedie D2: Diediedie D3: Diediewhyareyounotdeadyetdie D4: Diediedie D5: Diediedie

I may have missed some subtleties there.

I do have a question: what's your quote for Walder Frey?

I’ll match him son for son and still have nineteen and a half left when all his are dead

[Magua]

I'm quite serious about that Setael bit. There were 78 vote counts through the end of D5. danakillsu is voting Mikujin/Setael in 60 of them. D1 I could buy bussing. D2, not so much. D3, after MagnaofIllusion is dead, no way.

[Magua]

I could get you games like that. Not now obviously.

Great. And I can get games with scum Bulletproofs who aren't Godfathers.

Thats what I'm asking for...

5 minutes of Googling:

Mini 1071 Secret Invasion Mafia KageLord Deadpool Regenerator (bulletproof) Which was modded by danakillsu, FWIW

Mini 912 Little Golden Mafia peanutman - Scruffy (Bulletproof Scum) - Wins

Mini 1091 Mafia Mania 1x Bulletproof Goon

Lord of the Rings Mafia WeirdRa, Sauron, Mordor Mafia Bulletproof Role-Name Cop

Mini 373 DOOMsville Mafia Bulletproof Goon(bird1111): Kill immune

Mini 992 Mafia in Handsometown AGar the NK Immune Unattractive Mafia Goon

There are more, if you care. I've omitted the Marathon games. Also omitted ones where it was a one-shot bulletproof.

Other than I recall him being pretty genuine and quick in his claim. Nothing. Shitty game. Does that mean nottown. I don't know...but I've been tossing around a lot in my head. (more cont:)

Look at my defense of Raivann. Look at my defense of BunnyLover. I know that shitty game doesn't mean nontown. But I also know that shitty game doesn't mean town.

Also how does a SK defeat a BP Scum? Fucking seriously????

Finally, and back to the investigation. WHO else in the series other than TYWIN could've been Modified BP after Tyrion's death???

Same way SK defeats a BP town, I would imagine.

And you're making the same mistake I made. You're taking Zdenek's word about his roleclaim (that he becomes bulletproof only after Tyrion dies), and using that to justify why you think he's town.

OH and DANA is off my lynch Table because there have been 0 goons and he was investigated as a VT.

The GF was in my book inv-immune. All goons auto invimmune too?? FUK NO. DANA IS MORE CONFIRMED TOWN THAN I AM.

This I agree with.

[Magua]

So Magua, Zdenek is the final scum?

And there's still an SK about?

Yes, and yes.

[Magua]

@Locke Lamora:

Do you think Zoraster would have become a Lannister-aligned townie if you had been lynched?

@danakillsu:

Do you think I'm the Stark or the SK?

[Magua]

@Locke Lamora:

Do you think Zoraster would have become a Lannister-aligned townie if you had been lynched?

Ergh. I mistyped. What I meant was:

Do you think Zoraster would have become Lannister aligned had you been night-killed?

[Magua]

You know what? I'm just flailing at this point. I've really lost all desire to do anything else this day.

I want to lynch Zdenek. I really do. But I can't.

I want to lynch Locke Lamora. Not as much as Zdenek, but I still really do. Anything having to do with the setup aside, I don't like his play. Everything about it is fence-sitting. Even now he's fence-sitting. I. Just. Don't. Like. It. But there's not the votes.

So you know what? I give up. Benmage, hasdgfas, pops, just fucking pick someone to lynch and lets be on with it so we can get on to tomorrow where we can actually lynch Zdenek. I simply don't care anymore.

Zdenek > Locke Lamora > Twilight Sparkle > LynchMePls > danakillsu

[Magua]

pops, your reasoning is terrible. You're town, but your reasoning is still terrible.

Benmage, your PoE reasoning isn't terrible, but goddamn, your governing of Zdenek was.

I think Benmage, hasdgfas, Shadow1psc, and popsofctown are 100% confirmed. I don't care what anyone says.

I think that Locke Lamora, Twilight Sparkle, or danakillsu cannot be Stark.

Hopefully I've made all of my other reads abundantly clear.

Also, I'd like to end this by saying that all of you who think I'm Stark or could possibly be Stark are just fucking terrible. I mean, seriously, seriously, incredibly bad. I really do mean you here, pops, hate to be singling you out on this, but no two sentences you put together make sense in any possible fashion, and I think I may have actually become dumber by trying to read them.

Those of you who think I'm the SK are only marginally terrible. I mean, don't get me wrong, you're still incorrect, but I can at least see where you're coming from.

[Magua]

Missed adding this: Don't think LynchMePls is the serial killer and highly doubt danakillsu is.

[Magua]

Well what do you want me to do Magua. My number one pick for scum was governed. The rest of the town is quasi confirmed or full confirmed. Those who aren't confirmed in some degree have played a good town game. The only other option I'd be allowed is LL, and I disagree with you on LL. I have to grab at straws. Are you referring to my play all game? If that's the case, I'm surprised you let it go on for dozens of pages, and only commented on it roundabout survival motive time.

That was pointed almost entirely on your post trying to draw a connection between Setael and I as being buddies and Setael protecting me.

If I can't get a Zdenek lynch, I want a Locke lynch. If I can't get a Locke lynch, I want a Twilight lynch. Benmage has stated pretty upfront that I'm getting lynched in preference to Twilight. Benmage also said Zdenek is town. I'm not going to fucking argue with him because it will just make my head explode.

But saying I'm Stark or that Setael and I are buddies really flies in the face of posts 1 through 106 or so of this game. EVERYTHING ELSE ASIDE, if I'm Stark, that means I'm taking credit for the SK kill, claiming scum to the SK before everyone had even claimed while simultaneously arguing there was no SK, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc. Not to mention the aforementioned if I'm Stark then it means that I have bussed every single day except for D2.

If I'm going to be lynched, then it's going to be outside of lylo. There's zero reason for me to survive the lynch today if it only means coming back to me D7. That's fine. But bullshit things like a Setael-Magua connection just make my lynch look stupid, which isn't fine.

[Magua]

10 alive. Hope it's 8:1:1, because if it's not, then Benmage has simply fucked us all over and lost. But I think it's 8:1:1, so maybe it's ok.

Lynch me, 7:1:1. Two nightkills, worst case, 5:1:1. One nightkill isn't really any better for us, because it doesn't give us an extra mislynch.

Lynch Zdenek, who is going to be scum. 5:1. One night-kill. 4:1.

This gives you one mislynch.

Lynch Twilight Sparkle, because they fit into either category.

If that's a mislynch, it's now 2:1. Unless I miss my guess, final day in that case would be LynchMePls, danakillsu, and Locke Lamora. Think dana is clear. LL can't be Stark. LMP can't be SK. So that should make it easy.

The only difference to this plan would be switching me and Twilight, which Benmage isn't going to do, and, since even best case TS turns out to be SK, one nightkill tonight doesn't give us an extra mislynch *anyways*, is simply not worth it for me to argue about.

[Magua]

If anyone thinks my plan is wrong, I want them to argue with me about it *now*. Argue with me as if I were confirmed town, since I'll be confirmed after I flip.

That is, the lynches should go:

Zdenek > Twilight Sparkle > (LMP or LL)

[Magua]

I lol'd when Magua admitted to flailing. Continue with the lynch. If he somehow isn't scum, we reconsider what we think we know.

You're bad at this. I mean, really bad.

But I'll take this as tacit approval of my plan.

[Magua]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

[Magua]

Or Zdenek could just tell us if he's Stark or SK and save us all the trouble.

[Magua]

Twilight, what do you think of my plan? Yes, it's based on there being only one Stark, but it does have you getting lynched right after Zdenek.

[Magua]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

I am opposed to any plan where I end up being lynched.

Thats a nontown claim.

...

...

...

[Magua]

Zdenek, what do you think about my plan?

I am opposed to any plan where I end up being lynched.

Given that you're going to be lynched tomorrow anyways, please tell me if you're the SK, or if you're Stark.

[Magua]

Magua, do you agree with

my

plan? If two confirmed town die tonight and you wind up in a kingmaker (hito is pedantic and says that apparently, Prisoner's Dilemma is inaccurate game theory terminology ) with a Stark and an SK, will you promise to vote for the Stark to win? It's imperative that every single player in the suspect pool agrees to it, because they're the ones who can choose to steal the SK's victory if he shoots off-list. The threat only holds weight if we all mean business.

hito's right, Kingmaker is the proper term.

And no, I don't agree with your plan. If there's two Starks, and if Zdenek is one (which is the only way we arrive at your endgame), then I'm totally going for a Stark loss. The SK at least helped us by killing Magna. So the Starks better lynch me now or kill me now.

Firstly, there's the issue that scum don't volunteer to be lynched in the first place, so it's stupid to lynch the first person to offer his head on a platter. Except of course, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM, you shouldn't be suggesting it as town, either, because it's a stupid antitown plan, etc. (That reminds me, I still have questions for you saved from D4, but I'll save them for later.) What I want to know is if you're town, why do you want yourself to be lynched first? Also, why aren't you self-voting if you're serious about this plan and think you're the best lynch today?

I'm not the best lynch today, and I don't want myself to be lynched. I'm not offering up my own lynch because I think it's a good idea, I'm simply not arguing terribly much to save my own neck, and it's really a choice of being lynched today or being lynched two days from now.

My plan has two built in assumptions:
1) There's only one Stark remaining, and
2) Zdenek is either SK or last Stark.

If both of those are true, then I'm reasonably confident that Zdenek's flip will clear enough players to sew the game up (as LL can't be Stark, LMP can't be SK, and I don't think dana is either). The only person who could fit into either slot is you, which is why you have to die regardless of Zdenek's flip.

Don't get me wrong -- if I have the choice between hammering you and getting lynched myself, you're dying. But then I would fully expect to get to lynched two days from now, as stated, so I'm not really motivated to push for it.

-If there are two Starks, my theory is that they're LynchMePls* and Zdenek. So this is a plan that guarantees the Starks' victory IF there are two Starks (and we should plan for a worst-case scenario). Even you've admitted that it's mostly wishful thinking, because "if there are two Starks, we've already lost."

If there's two Starks, I'm willing to place the blame for this entirely on Benmage's shoulders.

-Why are we getting lynched before LL if you think LL is the SK? Since your plan guarantees a town loss if there are two scum, it shouldn't even matter to you who's more likely to be Stark. Either the Starks have died out with Zdenek, or we auto-lose. Did this occur to you when you chose your lynch order?
-You think that Locke Lamora is the SK, right, far above LMP and dana? In a LMP/dana/Locke endgame, Locke is not going to be the player lynched.

Lynch order was chosen irrespective of Zdenek's flip. For instance, if Zdenek flips SK, I'd consider Locke to be cleared. However, in no case does Zdenek's flip clear you.

Stark need to realize that the SK is bulletproof, and that if I can't win, I'm going to help the SK win.

[Magua]

I still am baffled at his role.

Twyin is the only logical player to get changed after Tyrion dies...

And he was investigated by Kast.

There is no reason to believe that the bolded part is true. That is, there's no reason to believe it has anything to do with Tyrion dying at all. The only thing we know for 100% fact is that his role is "Modified Nightkill Immune".

[Magua]

On my phone, so can't answer everything, but...

OMIGOD.

YOU ARE MISSING THE FUCKING POINT.

WE. ARE GIVING. THE SK. AN ULTIMATUM.

I get the point.

My counterpoint is that I'd rather give an ultimatum to the Starks than the SK, and that is this: If I get to be kingmaker, Starks lose.

Starks lynching me because of this just make it more likely that they lose. So the only Stark recourse is to lynch the SK before kingmaker (good), or shoot me (also good).

But really, I don't think there's two Starks:

Locke Lamora: Can't be Stark.
danakillsu: To be Stark, danakillsu would have to be "investigation immune". We've already had a Godfather flip. How many "investigation immune" Starks do you imagine there are?
Twilight Sparkle: Could be Stark, but just seems so goddamn unlikely, esp. with Magna interaction D2.
LynchMePls: Could be Stark.
Zdenek: Probably is Stark.

So if there's two Starks, it's got to be LMP + Zdenek. My hesitation on lynching LMP is that he's the one player who I'm sure isn't the SK, which is why my vote is still on Locke, as even today, Locke's really done nothing to convince me that he's town, or cares about town, etc.

[Magua]

He could be Stark. Don't think he's SK.

[Magua]

Guys. I hate to be the wet blanket here, but LMP doesn't make much sense as scum.

Doesn't make sense as SK. Hope we can all agree on this one.

Stark. This one's going to be a bit roundabout, and it's going to be setup WIFOM.

Let's pretend that LMP is Stark. He did the chesskid3 kill. First of all, this means that mafia decided to kill chesskid3 over Benmage, hasdgfas, and Locke Lamora, which I'm just not buying.

Secondly, and here's the setup speculation part, I'm 99% sure that MagnaofIllusion jailkept popsofctown N2. pops' friendly neighbor message did not get to Shadow N2. We know that he wasn't roleblocked by town, so that leaves jailkept by Magna, or messed with by an unknown scum PR. It seems obvious to me that there's no way for scum to have a bus driver/redirector, as then they would've just killed Benmage N4 instead of Nexus/Andrius. So I'm going with jailkept by Magna.

That means that Magna, who had lost two partners, didn't choose to protect another partner. Makes sense for Zdenek partner. But for LMP to be Stark, it would mean that he'd have to have some PR that was so valuable that the mafia needed it to go off *even after he claimed a killing role with an SK in the game*.

[Magua]

The simple argument to that wildly speculative meta is that Magna simply didn't think about jailkeeping his team.

You're saying that you think:

1) There is a serial killer in the game
2) LMP is Stark
3) LMP claimed a kill D2, making himself a target to the SK
4) Magna didn't think about jailing LMP N2 *and LMP agreed*

Do I have that right?

[Magua]

Could you explain to me why it is that you're doing everything in your power to
a) Primarily NOT lynch Magua.
b) Secondarily not lynch ANYBODY!
You're jumping off wagons when they get some votes seemingly just to kill the wagon. I don't really agree that Magua's points make LMP confirmed not Stark.

Why do you think he's doing it?

You think I'm scum. Do you think I'm defending LMP because he's my partner, or because he's town?