"Ascetic", since I was unfamiliar with it, is a role where all non-kill actions on you fail (investigations, tracks, protects, etc). Got that confirmed by the mod.
How "Ascetic" interacts with "Godfather", the mod refused to tell me. Also wouldn't tell me if the "Ascetic" was added on like Zdenek claims that Bulletproof was added on. So take that as you will.
Answer, please.Magua wrote: hasdgfas, who are your suspects?
Now, evaluations and whatnot:
Absolutely Town
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5) Benmage - Confirmed town (Kettleblack)
21) GreyICE DTMaster popsofctown - Confirmed Jaime Lannister, and my god, if Jaime Lannister isn't town in this game, I am going to track Faraday and Seacore down and eat their babies
10) Hasdgfas - I continue to disagree with Andrius. If hasdgfas is a scum dayvig who claimed it D1 and then shot a teammate, congratu-fucking-lations, you win three internets. I maintain scum-dayvig is not impossible, but that scum dayvig would keep the shot to kill a claimed PR or similar.
14) Shadow1psc - Wedding PR aside, I maintain Shadow as my strongest townread. If he's scum, congratu-fucking-lations to him too.
The Usual Suspects
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This leaves five slots that I worry about: Locke Lamora, Danakillsu, LynchMePls, Zdenek, and Twilight Sparkle. At least two of them are scum. Maybe three.
So not Stark. SK? Meh. Possible that that would show up empty to a rolecop, but I really, really, really doubt it. His play has been aggressive, in your face. I think Dana is town.
I mean, not even once. I mean, not even Setael D5. Now, this isn't a crucifying feature (Kast was the same, for instance), but still. That's just odd. TS' big pools of votes are Thor (town), Raivann (town), Zdenek (unknown), and Shadow (unknown, but still goddamn town).
The odd part is that if Twilight is scum, I'd expect to see *a few* votes for scummates here and there. Maybe one for MagnaofIllusion D2 when Magna was pushing the TS wagon. *Something.*
Looking over Magna's push on TS D2 leads me to believe it's not bussing.
TS could still be the SK, though.
VCA
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When I say I did a VCA, I mean that I took all of the votecounts and parsed them out for X votes Y in post Z on day A. Then I could easily look for patterns.
Mafia votes: We've got four mafia. Let's analyze their votes! Sadly, it's not exactly illuminating, since two of them died before N2, but, y'know. Let's do it anyways.
Both of those are pretty much useless, unless you think that diddin's voting me means something, but likely you've already made up your mind one way or the other about that awhile back.
Day 1: 11 vote counts for Zoraster (3rd party), 9 for diddin (mafia, bussing), 6 for Zdenek (unknown), 1 for Benmage (town)
Day 2: 23 vote counts for Twilight Sparkle (unknown), 3 for Feysal (town).
I originally wrote Magna off as not being scum because of the D1 diddin voting. Mistake, as it turned out. So the question is, is Twilight Sparkle bussing or mislynching?
He votes diddin in #287, putting him 3rd on the diddin wagon. He unvotes diddin in #585, which is 5 real life days later, to start the Zoraster wagon, which he'll stay on until the day ends (this is before Xtoxm gets shot, btw). My read on this is he holds his vote on diddin to build up cred, but then leaves before it might go somewhere. He avoids jumping on the xvart wagon (which was leading with 5 votes at the time) but instead starts a new one of his own.
Now, D2, Magna votes Twilight Sparkle in #973, putting him second on the wagon (after me). He rides that lynch just about all day long, jumping onto Feysal only at the end in #1484. At that point, the votes are close for both wagons (Twilight has 5, Feysal has 6; Magna's vote makes that 4 and 7), but it's clear the Feysal lynch has momentum -- he claims only a few posts after Magna jumps.
Much like with diddin jumping from Raivann to Zoraster D1, I don't think that scum who are on a buddy's lynch that's not going to happen jump to the main bandwagon lynch -- if you're going to bus, seems to be better to be consistent about it and just stay on your scumbuddy's wagon, since you know a town is being lynched anyways.
Factor into this that Magna has also seen one buddy get dayvigged D1, and another get shot N1. I doubt that bussing and pushing suspicion onto a teammate is high on his list of priorities at the moment.
End result: I think Twilight is town.
D1: DrippingGoofball (16), Shadow1psc (8), Benmage (1)
D2: Feysal (19), Nexus (2)
D3: Raivann (13)
All of the above are confirmed town, and Shadow is really goddamn close to it.
All that leaves are votes for Zdenek: 4 on D3, 3 on D5. The D5 votes are ignorable, though -- there's no way that Setael wasn't going to be the lynch, so that's WIFOM stew right there.
TL;DR
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SK (in order of preference from most to least): Locke Lamora, Twilight Sparkle, danakillsu, LynchMePls (reaaaaal unlikely), Zdenek (even more unlikely)
Stark (in order of preference from most to least): Zdenek, Twilight Sparkle, LynchMePls, danakillsu (Locke is off of this list)
I think there's one Stark. I think Nexus died because it was a given that Setael was going to get lynched, and that that would leave Zdenek the last mafia.
VOTE: Zdenek