The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[Herodotus]

Oversoul, I'll let your partner apply some common sense to what you just said.

I haven't finished reading, but I can't imagine myself voting for anyone other than VitaminR.

VOTE: VitaminR

[Herodotus]

I'm still at the top of page 25, but why not post my notes?

*****

Notes on specific scummy things people have said:
Furcolow - early - super-defensive and spammy, strongly anti-town reaction to Magister
Post 418 - "lynch all liars" - is that something that he holds to (meta)? Because Andrius told him "Don't be an asshat and claim things you're not."
Magna - post 204 "The “But he was using it to Breadcrumb in LOTR” doesn’t fly with his obv bold crumbing also." - those crumbs didn't say anything, and Gandalf could have created their meaning after the fact. Though I don't think Gandalf is scum.
Willowisp - post 230 connection to furcolow
Empking - not making himself useful, as mockingjaye said in post 357.
Active lurking

hard

on page 18.
post 589 is surreal humour.
VitaminR -
post 359 is reaching on PereV. LordChronos's "big post" was the post that told me I was replacing a townie, so VR's reaction calling it scummy is questionable.
post 360 is a

vote

FoS for an obvtownie (mockingjaye).
MOS post 439 holds gandalf (and implicitly andrius) to an unreasonable standard of role PM clarity for a bastard game. Besides, why bother arguing that a player is a jester?

*****

As much as Magister looks town, the one-line posts are 100% different from his town play in SMII.

Magister, Vitamin - why did you vote kanye on page 9?

Spyrex is playing differently from both Spy-town and Spy-scum, and I don't mean calling himself a princess. Do you have a post restriction?

And no, don't think this means I've forgot about the Chrono twins. I wouldn't be said if they got conscripted to fight for my daddy as catapult fodder.

Please! Put me in a catapult and fire me at the scum, I'll land with sword drawn.

Wraith and dekes are more convinced that gandlf+andrius are town than they are. That doesn't impress.

re: Gandalf/Andrius- (assuming any truth to thier claims/posts/etc.)- I think they may be the equivalent of "blank slates", with maybe some sort of action by the seraphs to get them on a team. Or maybe more flavor stuff.

I had the same thought.

gandalf, does your role PM have no character name and basically say "who am I and how did I get here?"

(Not sure if that is still relevant.)

@Espeonage, posts 518 and 544. What's between the lines? Are you saying that you're counterclaiming gandalf?

*****

likely town
willowisp
mockingjaye
Gut

Elib, Wraith, and Feysal have given me good feelings, but not as strongly.

likely scum
VitaminR
Empking
MOS

Kanyek, maybe? I don't have a big scum read on him, but I'd be willing to sheep onto a wagon.

Not sure about Espeonage. I think he's just playing poorly.

*****

How does the first part even make sense? I've yet to call anyone scum this game AFTER they called me such. That's what OGMUS is Empking ... you should know that by now.

Magnaofillusion is scum, by the way!
But not really. Well, maybe. I'm undecided.

*****

Fey, self-aligned?

[Herodotus]

Just finished Day 1. I don't have much to say about the Pere wagon. There must have been some scum on it, but it already includes some of my top suspects. None of the vote posts stood out as especially scummy on my first read. I may go back and reexamine them later, but I'm more concerned with catching up first.

Dekes and Wraith look like townies based on their posting prior to the Pere wagon.

Magna could have easily withheld that information. Instead he chose to post very helpful information that could lead to an explanation on your role (and by proxy, Gandalf's role) and give town a large amount of information. That is why we are confident in Magna town.

I think Seraph1 would have worked against him or reported the incident to the next neighborized player if he had withheld it.
Magna acting as messenger is null. It's a pro-town action, but if he didn't do it, he would have been discovered, so he'd do it as town or anti-town. (I do think he's telling the truth about the neighborhood.)

But what I'm absolutely sure about is that there's scum in the skating by-pool (Pere, SaM, Wraith, WoW...is Chrono V/LA of any sorts? Because that ISO is just disgusting).

Assuming this is a complete lurker list, I now think Sun and Moon is likely scum.

Furcolow and MoS are probably not buddies in light of furcolow post 639. Scum probably wouldn't say "[buddy] complimented me"

it's not what you know, it's what you can convince everyone else
MoI has just confirmed there are probably roles like that unless he made up the seraph's contacting him

Did you mean roles like the ones gandalf and andrius claimed?
MoI, did you confirm that? I missed it.

Willowisp's quote in post 778 is notable for cutting out a significant line. But I think he was mostly just answering Dekes's question, so it's probably not scum-motivated misquoting.

[Herodotus]

I'll try to get a couple of posts in until then, but no promises.

But this Pere wagon makes me feel good inside. Need to take a look at the voters, but for now I'll join anyway.

Unvote; Vote: PeregrineV

Ok Dekes is scum? Why you ask? Because HE WAS ALREADY VOTING PERE WHEN HE POSTED THIS.

Hard to believe he suddenly was convinced Pere was scum by the Feysal case when he supposedly already had a scum read on Pere and was voting him.

Scumtastic.

I disagree. It looks like he just forgot where his vote was, which isn't scummy.

Minor FoS: Spyrex for agreeing. Furcolow and Magna don't get FoS's, but they burned some credibility.

Also, Feysal, I can't believe you targetted me
talk about wraithfulness
you're not a town vig either

D1: "Could a vig please try to kill me?"
D2: "Fey targeted me. OMG WHYYYY?!?!?!?"

[Herodotus]

VitR made uncharacteristically many accusations (and not particularly good ones either ("slushy snowballs" if you get the reference (which you probably don't))). He's scums.

Do we have to do this again? WHY? You can't read me. I know this, you know this. Stop just thinking I'm scum for no real reason when you know this.

You're concerned with their (there's two of them) overall ability to read you, but not their reasons for thinking you're scum?
I'm not sure that that is a scumtell or a towntell, but it's odd.

(I expect it's the type of oddity that passes for a scumtell in the MS community. I'm not sure whether it is one, but if it gets scum lynched...)

Though for them I seem to be easier to read when I'm scum.

I'm not sure, but I think that technically speaking, readability has to be independent of alignment, almost by definition.

MOS post 439 holds gandalf (and implicitly andrius) to an unreasonable standard of role PM clarity for a bastard game. Besides, why bother arguing that a player is a jester?

Because if a player is a jester, we *don't* want to lynch them. Since gandalf had exhibited jester signs, we were better off having a vig NK him. Which apparently Feysal failed to do.

I don't think that lynching a jester is much worse than vigging them (wagon analysis is damaged, but either way, it's a town-controlled kill expended, a necessary waste of time), but I recall there was something about you actually

arguing

that gandalf was a jester that seemed off.

@Andrius: who were the scum trying to save Feysal with the counterwagon?
(Not sure if that's still relevant given Feysal's claim, but it stood out to me that he left that unanswered - from post 906, I think.)

@Manga: Are you guaranteed that the people posting in the QT are who they say they are? I know this is paranoid to ask, but can you confirm that it isn't possible that faraday/mina are faking AGM's posts?
Regarding gandalf, it's not clear whether the seraphs have the ability to restore a character's memory... if they don't, then surely they wouldn't assume gandalf is lying, as there would have to be some such mechanism, and if they do, it seems like that would have been an early priority.

The way you're treating those people who should be on your short scum list differently based on how they view you is disturbing. Especially SpyreX comes here to mind who's way sheepier than I've ever seen him and apart from role playing has been solely reactive the whole game. And he was on both the early gandalf and the final Pere wagon. And yet you're giving him a pass on giving reasons for the Pere vote and can only muster a half-assed dig at him. You need your sheep this game or are you actually trying to read those people, too?

This whole paragraph is an exercise in undermining. Much better than your old reaction to pressure (angry OMGUS … Lost Season 1 vintage) but very reminicient of how you reacted in Battle for Olympus. You don’t outright come out and call me scum but lay the groundwork for later with phrases like “is disturbing” and “You need your sheep” (indicating I’m not really looking for reads).

This paragraph is also at odds with earlier statements from you. Before I had “too many scumreads” for your taste but this seems to indicate I’m not finding enough people properly scummy. Those are on some level contradictory. Either that or I am just finding the wrong people scummy.

I see no contradiction between the claim that you're accusing too many people of being scum and the claim that you're ignoring some people who "should be on your short list".

The only reason I did that is because I switched into BlazBlue and by default I had to ask for an extension and it looked like Plum just gave it to Herodotus.

I have no idea what you just said.

I think what Spyrex was trying cryptically to say - or not say - was: "@gandalf, if Andrius's role is related to your role, do you think he's anti-town based on your identity?"

His win condition is like "must survive to endgame" not "must kill town"

He might be SK, but we can force him to kill where we want him to

I hope Feysal is town
his claim was shitty, though

Do you actually know his win condition, or are you

speculating

figuring it out based on public information?

@Magna: you want guaranteed scum?
Then vote for VitaminR.
Or S&M, if Feysal agrees to kill him N2. But I think S&M would make a better vig kill, given that it's their lurking that's scummy.

Dekes and Wraith look like townies based on their posting prior to the Pere wagon.

Please elaborate ... especially in regards to Dekes.

It was some specific post(s)... I think they may have been at the top of a page... around 27? I'll try to get back to it. How high of a priority is this though, if Feysal is 75% likely to be lynched today, and Dekes isn't next in line?
At a quick glance: I suspect it was the things he said to Empking in posts 625-633.

I assume Feysal is not the second player with QT access; is that correct?

Why would you say I 'burned some crediblity'? You just recently epicly fence-sat on me saying, in effect, "MoI is scum right? Or maybe not. Can't tell". How would I have any significant credibility in your eyes if you had suspicions I was scum.

Does Not Compute.

I don't have a read on you, but that doesn't mean you don't have some town credit. A few things that stand out about you:
Faramina, a presumed town seraph, presumably thinks you're town, and I assume this is partly based on their believing that they can read you well.
You've been talkative, making long posts, but I'm pretty sure you'd do that regardless of your alignment.
You've accused a variety of people of scumminess, which is a very slight towntell because it means you're not afraid to be on the receiving end of OMGUS reactions.
With respect to Dekes in particular, I think your accusation is overblown. I don't think there was logical support to the idea behind your argument.

Agree with Spy. I see no reason to say no to an extra de facto town controlled kill. Added pluses here are that 1) Feysal's one of those players to whom helping the town comes naturally and 2) I see no reason why his win condition need be mutually exclusive with ours - odds are he'll win simply by surviving long enough.

I guess he's not as bad as an actual SK but we need to really dictate his kill every night (and this makes his kill much more vulnerable to outside messing with). If we give him a list, he'll just kill those that are also on his list and we have no idea of whether his list is town- or scum-sided or balanced. PLUS, he's claimed non-town-aligned and could EASILY be lying about important details of his claim, e.g. whether he needs to survive, what kind of killing/recruiting abilities he has, etc.

He probably has a list of role names, so he doesn't know which players are "on his list", meaning any kill is equally good if it helps him survive, unless people start claiming role names.

@Feysal: do you need to survive in order to win?

@Magister: in case you're still reading, I wish you well.

And now, I'm caught up, other than needing to go back and recall what convinced me dekes was town.

[Herodotus]

According to data on past games, Serial Killers improve town win rates. Feysal is at worst a SK, and more likely is what he claims.
As long as Feysal will be killing scummy players, he's a bigger threat to groupscum than he is to town. Let them be the ones to worry about him. The town can use our lynches on the scum instead of spending two of them chainlynching Feysal and Furcolow.

But also, let's not neglect scumhunting while we consider that.

@Everyone: The only people Mastermind of Sin has supported lynching are Feysal and Furcolow, and his support on Furcolow was low.
@Mas: Is that correct? Do you think either of them is groupscum? Are there any people you believe to be groupscum?

@Everyone: VitaminR appears to want to lynch Feysal but isn't voting. Do you think he is waiting for support from others? Also, whom does he think is scum? Can anyone tell from his posts? Do you get the feeling that he doesn't want to argue for any scum lynches or find scum?

[Herodotus]

@VitaminR:
I've suspected you since page 15, though I don't see the relevance of that.
And I wasn't using the point to evaluate your alignment - I have done and will do that separately - but to convince others to join the wagon on you.

Vote: Dekes

, btw. Could also go for a Herodotus wagon.

Why Dekes? And, I'm sure you could .

Regarding gandalf, it's not clear whether the seraphs have the ability to restore a character's memory... if they don't, then surely they wouldn't assume gandalf is lying, as there would have to be some such mechanism, and if they do, it seems like that would have been an early priority.

The question that Minaday seems to have so far is not related to their ability to restore but whether Gandalf’s claim was faked in the first place and he had his role all along.

What are your own thoughts on that?

According to data on past games, Serial Killers improve town win rates. Feysal is at worst a SK, and more likely is what he claims.

Can you back up this statement with a link to said data?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p2646790
The most significant comparisons are 3:9 to 3:1:8 and 2:10 to 2:1:9. (Town roles were not necessarily constant.)
It's for Mini Normals, but there's no reason to think it won't help. But on the other hand, those comparisons are equivalent to the difference between lynching an SK and lynching a townie with no information gain. But if we do lynch a townie today, we will gain information. Also, as I said before, we have better things to do than lynch someone that the mafia will want to deal with themselves. Finally, based on their claims, if Feysal dies, Furcolow becomes a liability to the town over time if we don't immediately start lynching scum. Wasting two lynches/vigshots on them would hand the game to the mafia.

[Herodotus]

@VitaminR:
I've suspected you since page 15, though I don't see the relevance of that.
And I wasn't using the point to evaluate your alignment - I have done and will do that separately - but to convince others to join the wagon on you.

What I meant was that you haven't been suspecting me for long. I guess I'm just surprised at how you're picking at the things I say like everything I say is scummy. It seems opportunistic and doesn't really give me the feeling that you're continuously re-evaluating how valid your read is (which you should be doing if you're town, especially because you're wrong). You called me "guaranteed scum," which is just patently ridiculous, just on the basis of how little I've posted (something I always do in large games, btw, before you try to spin that into a scumtell) and how little you know of my playstyle.

Actually, here's a question for you. Are you usually this confident about reads that are wrong? This is a serious question, though it may sound condescending. Could you show me a game in which you were town and latched on to someone in a similar way even though you were wrong?

I haven't said that everything you say is scummy. Most of your posts don't give me any indication of your alignment and I haven't mentioned them. Please explain why you would claim this.

Where did I call you guaranteed scum

on the basis of how little you've posted

? You're putting words into my posts. I did comment on your lack of expressed reads, but that was after I voted you or used the phrase "guaranteed scum", and that's different from a lurking accusation. Sun and Moon is the only player I have considered for a lurkerlynch.

I'm not concerned about any condescension in your first question, but it's a misleading question because it asks me to assume I'm wrong. On the second question, I feel like you're trying to undermine my argument by attacking my scumhunting record. When I replace into games, I typically have accurate reads, so yes, I'm confident. Sometimes I develop inaccurate reads, but I'm open to changing them if there is a reason.

On what basis would I have reevaluated my read on you? Something pro-town that you have done? Continuous re-evaluation doesn't mean changing your mind and deciding someone is town just because they want you to.

[Herodotus]

No typo, Mastermind of Sin, I just left off some letters.

Finding a third party and having no suspects beyond that isn't a way to win as town. Suppose Feysal is the lynch; what next?

[Herodotus]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... 0&sr=posts

Vote: Willowisp

What is the significance of the search? Did you read the most recent post: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 5#p3487985 ?

Random arbitrary choice Moi.
Just isoed the name i didn't recognize.

Context?

[Herodotus]

But anyway.

I haven't said that everything you say is scummy. Most of your posts don't give me any indication of your alignment and I haven't mentioned them. Please explain why you would claim this.

I just get the impression that, since you've declared suspicion of me, you've been trying to pick apart my posts/behaviour more than is really reasonable (e.g. my response to CES, my stance towards Feysal). But that's just my feeling about it.

That's what mafia is about?

Where did I call you guaranteed scum on the basis of how little you've posted? You're putting words into my posts. I did comment on your lack of expressed reads, but that was after I voted you or used the phrase "guaranteed scum", and that's different from a lurking accusation.

That's not what I meant. I meant that just considering how little I've posted I find it hard to believe that you can think I'm guaranteed scum.

Okay, I see what you mean. But I disagree with the general idea that it takes a lot of posts to read someone. And you seem to be arguing here that you haven't posted enough to be scummy enough*; I don't like that either.
* for some value of the word enough

I'm not concerned about any condescension in your first question, but it's a misleading question because it asks me to assume I'm wrong. On the second question, I feel like you're trying to undermine my argument by attacking my scumhunting record. When I replace into games, I typically have accurate reads, so yes, I'm confident. Sometimes I develop inaccurate reads, but I'm open to changing them if there is a reason.

I'm not trying to undermine you. I just want an example of where you were wrong about such an apparently strong read from the get-go, so I can evaluate your attack in a larger context. This is purely to help me establish a read on you. If you're worried about looking like a bad scumhunter, you can give me a bunch of examples where you were right to offset it.

I'll give you a game that includes both. In Mini 815, I joined on page 6, and using only pages 1-5 decided that two players were scum. One was, and the other wasn't. My first content post was this one, about the non-scum one (I wasn't voting because of game mechanics). The best example of my confidence on those reads was this response after Papa Zito, one of my town reads, joined me on the scum wagon on page 8. You may want to continue reading on page 9.

If your point is to study my playstyle and see whether I often express confidence in my reads when I'm town, the answer is yes, and I can provide evidence of that. Whether those reads are correct or incorrect wouldn't affect my behaviour, as I would hold the same belief either way.

I look forward to future Sun and Moon content.

[Herodotus]

Now I'm not a monster nor a monster slayer but I thought that a hydra, not just having teeth, had multiple heads with multiple mouths that could make multiple words.

Why would one head sticking itself in the dirt trying to find china stop the other one?

Amrun mentioned notes. As long as they aren't role-related, why not post them?

What, you expect me to make something up to please you? Lawl.

Not directed at me, but since I mentioned it earlier, yes. I expect you to have one or a dozen opinions.

[Herodotus]

I'm limited access until Tuesday. But I do plan to continue reading the thread, and if anyone has questions, I can answer them.

I don't have a read on ooba yet.
I'd be willing to vote kanye if deadline was close, but see no need right now.

[Herodotus]

@Empking: why?

@Furcolow: what are your full win conditions? And did you say something about choosing your win condition, or am I misremembering? If so, how does that work -- when do you choose?

[Herodotus]

Sorry everyone. If I had known how busy I would be for the past week, I probably wouldn't have entered the game, at least not yet. I expect to have time within the next 24 hours to catch up. In the meantime, a little IIoA:

@Magna (or Andrius?): Can you tell whether a scum seraph would know who the scum are? And do the seraphs have a list of abilities that the other can use? (Or do they feel it would be better not to answer that yet?)

@Feysal: could you ask the mod what your kill flavour is?

[Herodotus]

Still slightly behind.

kanye voters:
perev, willow, mockingj, wraith, ooba, sunandmoon, gut, (perev, feysal, espeonage

(wraith, furcolow, gandalf, (ooba, eliber, (mockingj, andrius, (willow, magna, empking

Some notes, using the votecounts plus Empking's vote:
15 unique players have voted for kanyek.
1, pereginev, is confirmed town.
2 are claimed 3rd party.
1 claims not to know his role.
4 players voted him on both D1 and D2: wraith, ooba, mockingj, willow.
4 players who didn't vote him on Day 1 voted him on Day 2: gandalf, elib, andruis, magna, empking
4 players who voted him on Day 1 are not voting him now: sunandmoon, gut, feysal, espeonage

That's a high enough number of voters to be troubling. It leaves the following possible buddies:
VitaminR, MastermindOS, dekes, spyrex, and anyone who might be or have been bussing.
I was hoping this would make things more clear, but I'm lacking an interpretation.

I don't think we can read much into the Day 1 kanyek/feysal wagon-stalling, despite the competing theories.

Wraith gets scumpoints for 1084. Magna explains why in 1085.

@MasterOS: You say that talking about game theory in a way that results in reads is a form of scumhunting. But I dont remember you making any accusations based on the idea of gandalf as a jester or MagnaOI as maybe-faking the QT.

Magna keeps saying specific, scummy things, such as his comments to MastermindOS in post 1116, his reference to "outdated wikitells", and calling kanyek survivalist for joining a wagon he supported. But he has also convinced me he's probably town based on the rest of his content. He's playing like a townie. And I don't think a scum player would be upset over undermining.

MastermindOS is ironic in post 1124.
MastermindOS and Magna's stances on Feysal and whether to shoot gandalf are both internally consistent, though I can understand why each thinks the other is inconsistent. I'm losing my scumread on MasterOS -- although Empking calling him the towniest player in the game is silly.

Do any other players here have experience with Magister Ludi? In our only other game together, he was town, and he was more verbose. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... lect=15679

I miss talking about the game away from prying eyes.

As of page 48, I'm feeling less certain about willowisp-town for reasons that should be obvious. I don't like the last response to spyrex.

[Herodotus]

@MastermindOS: does [redacted] mean [ongoing game]? If so, you shouldn't be talking about it, no one cares about links.

[Herodotus]

@Furcolow: what are your full win conditions? And did you say something about choosing your win condition, or am I misremembering? If so, how does that work -- when do you choose?

I think this question is important because furcolow has given unclear information on this, possibly to mislead. And he avoided it.

[Herodotus]

I do remember that Andrius was pushing for my lynch quite strongly at the time. That is the only thing that gives me any serious doubt about whether kanye is town, since Andrius could have been scum trying to save his partner.

I remember that too, but I believe Andrius when he said he had no role during Day 1. (I still believe him today, but that's unrelated.)

I like our vote on Kanye and I if I am going to sheep you I want to hear from Espeonage first.

That does nothing but give Espeonage a reason to lurk.

Feysal is making himself useful beyond what I'd expect, which makes me more inclined than I already was to keep him around, as long as he only kills either scummy players or scum (not always the same thing).

Gandalf claims to have become town, but he was active before that, and started lurking after. He's on my scumlist now. Gandalf, whom are you voting, and why?

Good Feysal targets if they aren't lynched: VitaminR, Gandalf
Second tier: Espeonage, Sunandmoon, Empking
Also reasonable: Kanyek. I think he's

more likely town

less likely mafia than the above five players, but knowing his alignment would be helpful information whether he's town or scum.

[Herodotus]

Btw I'll be here till deadline to switch for a lynch if necessary.

[Herodotus]

@Hero: You're pointing that out because??

I meant "I agree"/"the same is true for me". I can switch my vote if needed.

---

As with gut's vote during Day 1, but to a larger extent, ever since I voted VitaminR, he has done nothing but complain about being voted. He made it clear he wanted me to change my mind, but did nothing to make me change my mind. It would be good to point out MastermindOS here - when prompted, he became productive. That seems just as good of a reason to lynch VitaminR as the mixture of gut and reverse-reads that made me vote him originally.

[Herodotus]

@Mjaye: I think keeping a scumbuddy on the "person I would lynch" list but not pushing it to lynch is a great scum strategy. (The extreme variation of this is the mutual bussing scum would keep arguing incessantly in thread but never seem to get the other lynched). So yes, I know you've mentioned him.

Would like to draw parallel's to MoI's position on espe - multiple instances of "Let's add him to the hanging list", "I'd hang espe today" but when it came to the end of day a couple of pages back where I asked people to join a espe wagon, he made a couple of posts on SeraphQT and basically ignored that.

I don't think either of mockingj or magna is scum -- the distancing argument only works if they are.
But feysal shooting Espeonage would be consistent with the working with the town condition on his continued survival, regardless of Espeonage's flip.

Love the "two people had different responses, one of them must be scum!"-logic. (Though I'll admit that I didn't have that much to say for a lot of today.)

I didn't say that.

[Herodotus]

@Hero: Not a fan of tying down Feysal to a single target because of scum-doc possibility.

Agreed. Also, the scum-RB possibility. I want feysal to be unpredictable, but with the limitation that he either shoot someone who is scummy, or get lucky and shoot someone who doesn't look scummy but is scum.

Cutting it awfully close - while I can identify with Feysal's switch - it's risky. Also willing to hammer kanye if it means lynch though.

+1. I may think VitaminR is scummy, but I've been in feysal's position before. I wish the VitaminR wagon had gained steam *before* the deadline approached, so these second thoughts weren't at the last hour.

[Herodotus]

WELL THAT'S ANNOYING

WHY DOES THIS TOWN REFUSE TO LYNCH KANYE

15 unique players have voted for kanyek.

I don't know why he hasn't been lynched, but it's not because of a lack of voters.

[Herodotus]

No, my predecessor wasn't scummy. He was just slowly flaking.

If VitaminR is town, then I'm willing to accept feysal's kill if that's what he decides. But I don't think there is reason to see me as the most suspect voter. Apparently you think I'm scum for:
a) voting you for a long time
b) voting you before I finished reading

As for (a), why would I not be a townie whose case others (Empking, etc.) sheeped?
As for (b), you weren't at L-x, so there was no danger from my vote if I decided to move it later. I wanted to start taking stances before I finished reading. There's no scum motive for that.

[Herodotus]

What would be the use of expressing doubt, assuming I felt it? It would reduce my ability to lynch the person I thought was scum, for no gain except hedging against the possibility of you being town. Sounds like something that would benefit scum who know they are trying to get a mislynch, or who are bussing but might want to switch away.

Why are you trying to convince a walking dead man that you are town?

I don't know, I'm probably taking it too personally.

[Herodotus]

Meta on what?

[Herodotus]

Don't know when thread will be closed, so part-by-part:

Me not showing doubt as town:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p2980023

I was a VT with a scum-read on Nachomamma, and basically started calling him confirmed-scum.

[Herodotus]

I'm trying to find an example of the second, but I can't find any game in which I've led a lynch as scum.

In this scum game:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... lect=10595
I made a case on Porkens but when he argued against it I didn't respond much, and I didn't try to get him lynched.

[Herodotus]

Here, from the same game:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2307932
I gave Porkens town credit when a townie was mislynched and he wasn't voting them.

Anyways, my paragraph was a response to what VitaminR said were his reasons for suspecting me (a and b above).

[Herodotus]

Given VitaminR and gandalf's flips, I'm going to sheep for now.

VOTE: Espeonage, mostly based on ooba's request yesterday.

[Herodotus]

Wraith

I guess I feel better. I thought you had killed gandalf because of my suggestion.

[Herodotus]

Before Empking dies furcolow needs to clarify his claim.

And faramina should tell us when to hammer based on the seraph powers cycle.

unvote

[Herodotus]

Apparently I read too much into this one.

As did I. If ooba is a cop with an innocent on Sun and Moon, he needs to claim that.

Feysal, if you truly want to work with the town to accomplish your win condition without having us kill you first, please leave MoI alive until you have found and killed your fourth target (you have gotten 2 of 4 so far, right?). If you kill MoI before eliminating your other target, I swear to god I will hunt you down and lynch you before you get the chance to win.

"And my axe." Assuming Magna is town and Sun and Moon is scum, which I'm assuming.

It seems there was no need to include your name when you claimed your result, Magna. "I'm a modified version of a cop, I have a guilty on Sun and Moon, and we have to lynch them first due to a complication of my ability" would have been enough for me.

The votes maxed at 8 (L-1), now the count is 7 (L-2). Let's leave it that way so scum can't quickhammer. While I'd like to hear from furcolow and ooba, I'll vote as soon as Andrius says it's time.

[Herodotus]

@Ooba: Is Sun and Moon confirmed town in your role PM?

We now have claimed killers for every NK that has succeeded, and one that didn't. If Sun and Moon is town, and Feysal is anything like what he claims to be, then there has been no mafia kill.

Given the setup contained a normal town doctor I'd expect a mafia with a kill ability.

[Herodotus]

And faramina, you need to check magna's rolename if possible. But not necessarily tell us right away.

[Herodotus]

We now have claimed killers for every NK that has succeeded, and one that didn't. If Sun and Moon is town, and Feysal is anything like what he claims to be, then there has been no mafia kill.

5. gandalf5166, Aerin, Town Twoshot-Sacrificial Arsonist, tormented and killed Night 2

is that so?

Never mind, I just assumed Sun had killed gandalf. They claimed they tried to kill espeonage.

If Andrius wasn't saying that faramina had confirmed Sun and Moon's rolename, I would believe that they were mafia lovers with ooba.
On the other hand, I wouldn't expect Magna, as mafia, to fake a guilty before LyLo. Hypothetically the fakeclaimed guilty would be on a miller, so if his team had a rolecop result then he would know he'd have an explanation for it, but he'd also know that Sun and Moon was a mason.

It's also significant that the role name they are both claiming is one that Feysal might need to outlive. I could see Magna as a third party, like lyncher.

Also, I don't understand how Nienor and Turin would know each other's identities, since that was the one thing they didn't know while they were both alive.

[Herodotus]

@Furcolow: what are your full win conditions? And did you say something about choosing your win condition, or am I misremembering? If so, how does that work -- when do you choose?

I think this question is important because furcolow has given unclear information on this, possibly to mislead. And he avoided it.

VOTE: Furcolow

Noting a major coincidence that out of 20 possible targets, Turin's first night action is to kill Beleg.

I think I believe ooba, which makes me likely to believe Sun and Moon.
@Ooba: Letting you/Magister direct their kill on a townie isn't good evidence of their being town.
@Sun and Moon: Did you see furcolow's request to be killed? What was your opinion of that, and what was Magister's?

[Herodotus]

I love that you forget that the Seraphs absolutely know they unlocked my latent ability and everything else that’s gone on this game when saying “Hey, why should you believe MoI over me”.

I wouldn't expect the Seraphs to know what that ability is, so how is this relevant?

I suggest we lynch empking. MoI should die today if he's telling the truth. You can lynch\vig S&M and me if he flips town.

I hope you enjoy bullets / rope then because you are eating it by the end of tomorrow if we don’t lynch Sun and Moon today.

Why?

[Herodotus]

Magna was dropped from the Seraph QT. AGM had the last action, so he presumably dropped Magna.

Strange question, but when did this happen? And what were the results - can Magna still read it, but not post in it?
Also, you say that there are suppposedly two other people whose identities haven't been revealed who are allowed in the Seraph QT? Who told you this? I think at least one other QT member player should claim, to confirm your accounts.

[Herodotus]

That is as I understood from Magna's description.
While I have no reason to think you'd lie, I also have no reason to expect you to care to help the town. Either you are anti-town, or you don't know whom to help. The only two motives I can expect from you are survival or pro-scum.

[Herodotus]

@Ellibereth: I think we all agree that Empking is likely scum, but if Sunandmoon is also scum, we should lynch sunandmoon first.

Where is ooba?
Also, Amrun, you should forward your questions to Vi if Plum hasn't answered, as it appears Vi is the backup mod and may answer if Plum is V/LA.

[Herodotus]

@Furcolow: what are your full win conditions? And did you say something about choosing your win condition, or am I misremembering? If so, how does that work -- when do you choose?

I think this question is important because furcolow has given unclear information on this, possibly to mislead. And he avoided it.

VOTE: Furcolow

I don't think it's likely that Furcolow has missed my question three times. He has claimed that he doesn't have a town win condition, but refuses to discuss that win condition. Apparently it's going to take some pressure for him to answer. Dekes, mockingjaye, kanyeknowsbest, Espeonage, and Will-o-wisp, you're not voting. If some of you agree that this is something that we should expect of him, would you vote him until he responds?

The only thing I find scummy about Sunandmoon/Amrun is the "masons" question. When I get a mason role, if it isn't specified that it means confirmed-town, I ask the mod whether both players are confirmed town to each other. Just knowing that Nienor is my sister, or respectively that Turin is my brother, doesn't mean I know (s)he's town; but maybe the mod intended for me to know that. For her to be playing without knowing the answer is a major deviation from what I would do in the role she claims to be in.
But other than that, Amrun has appeared entirely genuine since claiming.

[Herodotus]

@mod: requesting a prod for ooba

[Herodotus]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... 8&sr=posts

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... lect=12454

[Herodotus]

... which is not to say that I disagree that Espeonage might be lurkerscum, but your play has been frustrating here. Tell us your point.

kanyek raises a decent point in response to ooba.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... 3&sr=posts

[Herodotus]

Alert,

We are not lynching Sun and Moon today.

Yes we... are?

We... might?

@Magna: You switch back and forth between saying that ooba/Magister is scum and saying that he just doesn't know Sunandmoon's alignment. It looks like you're using whichever argument is more convenient.

@Amrun: were you told that chronopie was Beleg when you were told that you had become a miller, or did you only find out when you read it in the thread?

[Herodotus]

@Amrun

, without asking the mod, look at your role PM. Does it contain any sentences that mention Magister Ludi's alignment? Paraphrase those sentences in your own words. Do this in your next post. I will accept no excuses.

Please show a link to where I say ooba / Magister is scum.

I suggest we lynch empking. MoI should die today if he's telling the truth. You can lynch\vig S&M and me if he flips town.

I hope you enjoy bullets / rope then because you are eating it by the end of tomorrow if we don’t lynch Sun and Moon today.

Does this not mean you suspected ooba? Were you just literally responding to his words without your own evaluation?

While you are on that errand I’d like you to explain how the fact that both Amrun and Magister have officially confirmed that they are NOT alignment confirmed means that Magister has to be Town.

I can't explain something that isn't true. Please show a link to where I say ooba / Magister has to be town. I'll help you by pointing you to the closest thing you'll find:

I think I believe ooba, which makes me likely to believe Sun and Moon.
@Ooba: Letting you/Magister direct their kill on a townie isn't good evidence of their being town.
@Sun and Moon: Did you see furcolow's request to be killed? What was your opinion of that, and what was Magister's?

I also note that your refuse to vote either the Cop Guilty or hypo-Seraph guilty and want to free-lance with your vote.

You mention this why?

I could have sworn that you disliked allcaps posting.

Magna, your accusation of IIoA is absurd. Due to the 'I' claimed by Andrius, you, Sunandmoon, and ooba, today is an 'I' day. There are only a few players worth 'A' 'ing right now, and I've been analyzing Sunandmoon. You simply don't like some of my results.

Who do you think is vig

How common are vigs in large games? I'd expect they would be present in almost all larges.

@Magister Ludi: When and how did you learn that sunandmoon was a vig?

[Herodotus]

What is SpyreX saying in his previous post?

1. Vigs being better than cops doesn't make the mason claim more likely to be true.
2. I'm bored and want DEATH TO SOMEONE.

(just translating)

[Herodotus]

I think Empking is scum. I previously thought Dekes was town, but haven't reevaluated them since around when I replaced in.

[Herodotus]

Mine is the same as Ludi's - reasonably sure he's the same alignment. I think Ludi is town so it's a distraction to get caught up in this. "Mason, reasonably sure he's the same alignment" is pretty freaking good when combined with actual actions that indicate town.

Why didn't you say this a long time ago? At first glance, it looks inconsistent with what you said earlier.

Oh, nvm, Gut asked.

I'll ask Plum, though this is silly.

If your role PM says you're reasonably sure he's the same alignment, what is there to ask the mod?

@Magister: I wouldn't vote kanyek any time soon. I'll review Dekes in the near future.

[Herodotus]

I don't agree with any of the wagons that are up for voting. I don't like how PeregrineV has gotten no heat so far for his scummy posts.

No where in this post does Dekes say what made Pere's posts scummy.
Magna keeps mentioning cognitive dissonance... Dekes later criticizes Pere for not giving reasons for his kanyek vote. And indirectly, Spyrex for not giving reasons for his Pere vote.

Lol, shit. Those reads were added as I read along. They're not actually supposed to be in that post.

If Dekes is scum, this is scum stating in the thread that they intended to withold their reads. WIFOM, but it points to town.

@Dekes: You commented on people calling you town early in the game without evaluation. What is your opinion on the significance of that?

His issue with Empking looks like he was trying to be helpful. I'll be able to say a little more after he answers the question I should have asked earlier:
@Dekes: What were your opinions of Empking's and MagnaOI's alignments at the time? And now?

As I said before, forgetting that he was already voting Pere is null.
@Dekes: Have you taken a look at the Pere voters?

Dekes supported lynching Feysal, which town might want, and scum definitely would want.

I like that in Post 1414 Dekes analyzed Feysal with some solid doubts. (Feysal answered the biggest one, targeting furcolow, to my satisfaction.)

Also, it looks like Wraith weak doctor'd gandalf N1, judging from his posts D2. But eh, I guess, that's not important anymore.

+townpoints

That was indeed shady since ooba has very recent first hand experience with complete lurker(ish) scum teams (Back to the Future Mafia, Battle of Olympus Mafia).

But ooba replaced Ludi, right? I always were pretty fond of him.

This gives me a slight town feel.

@feysal
Is your kill flavor specified in you role pm?

Quoting this because Feysal forgot(?) to answer.

All the Sunandmoon stuff matches my feelings somewhat. In short, either Sunandmoon is scum or they are town who seriously failed with their role information/claim.

@Magna: I think you may need to explain why you nameclaimed today, instead of post-game. The name you claimed makes you likely to be on Feysal's list, marking you for death when he otherwise might have shot someone from a faction opposed to yours.
That makes you even more unlikely to be mafia than you already were, but it adds fuel to the third-party lyncher or cult speculation that is haunting my mind.

[Herodotus]

Ok ok we need to sort some crap out.
Faramina confirms that Magister-ooba is indeed Nienor.

I don't see how that information is helpful. Can they tell us whether Magna is Turin? That was the rolename-cop investigation we needed. I know you said earlier that they didn't believe there would be two Turins, but I assume that was just setup speculation.

Mechanically, I'm not sure whether it matters. But I'm trying to reason this out:

If we know Magna is not Turin, we should lynch him today.

If we know Magna is Turin, then of the 2 Turins, one could be scum or both could be town. Potentially both could be scum, but certainly not aligned together because that would be rediculous. We should not lynch Magna, but that doesn't necessarily say whether we should lynch Sun.

---

I didn't post this earlier, but I don't recall why:
A player who doesn't even win with the town is making more sense than anyone else in the game.
But I disagree about two things:
Espeonage being a goon wouldn't protect him from a NK, so either the kill was prevented in some way that doesn't implicate him as scum, or he's a GF.
It's reasonable for Espeonage to be on townies' kill-but-not-top-priority lists, because the big scummy thing people are pointing out about him is his lurking, which tends to be overshadowed by in-thread stuff. So I'm not convinced by the association tell (unless some who have taken such a stance on him die and flip scum). That said, he's a reasonable wagon, and if Furcolow would answer my questions, I might join you.

From the signup thread:

While no direct (or, as far as I can see, implied) lies to the players are involved, this is a game with distinct elements of bastardry. If every faction feels, at some point, at least a little bit screwed over, that will be just as planned. When signing up for this game, please be aware that no guarantees are made against any controversial setup element or Moderator behavior.

If Sun's role PM honestly does say that Magister ooba is Nienor, I don't think this is a mod-lie.
Although if roles are being duplicated, Andrius could still potentially be Nienor too.

[Herodotus]

The Seraphs have confirmed that they gave MoI the Suicide Cop role during N2

I'm pretty sure that the Seraphs only confirmed that they "activated" MagnaofI, and they CANNOT confirm that this made him a suicide cop.
Consider your analysis again, given that.

[Herodotus]

deactivate my latent Power

Here's an idea.

Magna should ask the mod whether that would prevent his death though, otherwise it's a waste of a good-seraph action.

[Herodotus]

From the votecount...
Furcolow desperately needs to be vigged, this time permanently. For the reason why I voted him.
Sunandmoon is more likely town than scum.
Either Empking is town, or he's a role that prevents Andrius from learning who he is, OR Andrius found out Night 2 that he's scum and has been faking the no-role thing since then. Most likely, town.
Espeonage/smargaret is the most likely scum of all viable wagons.

VOTE: smargaret

Re: the wagon, I've been unsure about Gut since VitaminR flipped town, and Feysal isn't town, so the wagon is - ... but there are other possible voters.

[Herodotus]

I just thought of something, and I feel stupid for not considering it earlier.
How often does a mafia mason claim to their mason partner that they are also a vig?
I would guess that this has never happened in any previous game.
It would limit their options too much. A PR claims? Can't tell your partner that you're going to kill it; so your team will be forced to either not kill that PR (yet), or pretend you tried to kill the person you agreed on and it failed, which should damage your credibility enough to make the whole gambit backfire.
So I don't see Sunandmoon as a mafia member with Magister as a townie. That doesn't rule out other possibilities, but it was previously what I saw as the most likely Sun-scum scenario.

[Herodotus]

Willow, how are you feeling about Empking's claim?

@Gut: Is Ellibereth scum?

@Spyrex: Same question.

[Herodotus]

i just realized i havent said shit about herodotus yet. its largely gut and that this is the way i felt about him in another game where i ignored him all game and he turned out to be scum.

Everyone ignored me in that game because I wanted them to.

ppl i dont want vigged:

im still thinking town on spyrex

, moi is obvious, mos im feeling a lot better about,

gut town imo especially is amrun flips town

, empkings claim is town, ludi even if amrun flipped scum i still am thinking town.

Re: Spyrex - why?
Re: Gut - I don't think Gut is scum, but in case I die, I hope the town doesn't rule out the possibility that they defended Sunandmoon to convince others they are town. If Sunandmoon and Magna are both telling the truth, then convincing the town not to lynch Sunandmoon doesn't cost the scum much, as they would get a free town PR death from Magna. It may not be the more likely possibility, but it's a possibility.

I don't even know where to start with this post.

Unvote, Vote: smargaret

LYNCHLYNCHLYNCH. I'll come back and explain why if there is actually someone who doesn't understand why that post was terrible.

Also, kanye's wow comments were tech.

I understand why it's terrible - because it evaluates the gamestate wrongly - but I don't know why it's scummy.

[Herodotus]

L-1 there.

[Herodotus]

Ok, so Brandir is probably confirmed town and in the game. Thats a start.

Unfortunately, that was Wraith.

[Herodotus]

Vote: Dekes

Yeah,... I read his iso again. His first few posts are the things setting me off.

If you want to push on Dekes at this time, you can do that - there is some latent support - but someone will need to argue for it.

[Herodotus]

I'm very curious at the players who are unvoting a proven NEIGHBORIZOR when it isn't alignment indicative at all. If Espeonage / Smarg were scummy enough to lynch via play it makes no sense to just abandon ship based on what is effectively a VT claim.

It is alignment indicative.
The fact that it could be any alignment doesn't mean it isn't more likely to be a particular alignment, and the target selection that one chooses with their action will be based on their alignment.
I think the ability is more likely to be given to a townie, but the choice of Gandalf doesn't seem protown given that Gandalf probably had no role at the time.

Smargaret, could you summarize the discussion between Espeonage and Gandalf? Was it daytalk or nighttalk?

[Herodotus]

If as I expect I die tonight and the ‘more useful Vig Miller’ Sun and Moon lives those of you who are Town and still alive better not fucking just write it off. No bullshit “We don’t analyze Nightkills” crap.

According to you, you're a modified cop. If they kill you, you want us to assume that isn't the reason?

Look, another wall of uselessness. Lots of talk that basically says "Magister and Sun and Moon aren't scum together". Duh.

That's not what it says at all.

‘I can’t find evidence of something, so it couldn’t have happened!”

I didn't say that at all.

– I’ve discussed the reasons why Sun and Moon, as scum, would fake-claim Vig and Miller to his Neighbor before.

For whatever reason they feel free to claim killing Power as a means to ‘build trust’ with you.

Is this it? I'm unimpressed.

That you refuse to even consider it happening is suspect.

The post you quoted was entirely about considering it.

It is alignment indicative.
The fact that it could be any alignment doesn't mean it isn't more likely to be a particular alignment, and the target selection that one chooses with their action will be based on their alignment.
I think the ability is more likely to be given to a townie, but the choice of Gandalf doesn't seem protown given that Gandalf probably had no role at the time.

Linguistic gymnastics noted. Alignment indicative means just that – indicative of a certain alignment (Innocent Child / Mason are examples).

There's a difference between "indicative" and "confirmed". But are you even considering what you're arguing about here? Your point was that people shouldn't unvote smargaret because of her claim, and I obviously agreed.

I can provide you endless examples of Scum Neighborizors. So I have no idea how you came to your “more likely to be given to a townie’ statement.

I don't think you know what the word endless means... but this is a simple mathematical issue. If there have been 100 mafia neighbourizers and 1000 town neighbourizers, that means that the ability is more likely to be given to a townie. If there have been an equal number of each, etc.

This whole paragraph can be boiled down to say the following –

“It could be either alignment. Judge by actions. I think it

was given to Town

would be more likely given to Town

but the action doesn’t say this”.

IIoA. Not definitive position taken.

I'm voting smargaret, which indicates my position clearly.
You just quoted me analyzing Sunandmoon's decision to claim vig to Magister Ludi on Night 1, and its implications for their alignments, and then smargaret's claim of her ability and what Espeonage did it, and its implications for their alignment, so your IIoA accusation

I

S

.

A

.

L

I

E

.

To put it another way; If MoI hadn't claimed a guilty on S&M today would you still be voting for them?

If the answer is yes I have no issue with you still voting them

, if the answer is no, then you should really be voting for that other person instead.

Really? In regards to the bolded I’ve been calling them scum for before today you seem to have had a very large problem with it.

I don't think you understand Gut's question. If Sunandmoon had spontaneously claimed Day 2, what would you think of them?

Why would Rain be a neighborizer?

Horrible post. Outguessing the Mod is scumtastic.

Unreliable, maybe, but scumtastic? Who was it who speculated on Feysal's win condition?

Dollars to donuts it is “Have Feysal kill Thurin (or whatever the main person’s name is)” if Furc isn’t bullshitting.

Why didn't SunandMoon's shot on espeonage night two work damn it.

Oh, look, you are finally asking one of the big questions. I’ll provide you with the three possible reasons.

1. Someone protected Esp / Smarg / is lying and is bulletproof. Since we’ve had two Town protective roles flip this would mean it would be likely a scum Doctor.
2. Someone role-blocked Sun and Moon.
3. Sun and Moon is lying about being a Vig and the Mafia decided to use their kill elsewhere since Sun and Moon have a Derp Neighbor.

Once Smarg flips we can proceed to rule out any unlikely scenarios.

Role speculation is riskier than flavour speculation.

But both (1) and (3) inherently point to smargaret being scum.

[Herodotus]

Vote: Amrun

Great.

Did you give Andrius a role last night. YES OR NO

.

This is not optional.

You told him not to answer until Andrius did.

Empking, your Amrun vote makes no sense.

I think it would make a tremendous difference to the game if anyone could clarify whether smargaret/Espeonage was part of a group at the beginning, or if that playerslot was like a cult recruiter, with no original scumbuddies, and whose team would not suicide upon their death.
I doubt anyone who knows the answer will be interested in sharing it, but just in case.
I'm leaning toward the first possibility.

VOTE: Elibereth

I'd also like to hear from MoI about why he isn't dead. Suicide cop failing to get his guilty result lynched and then surviving the day? WTF is that shit?

Unfortunately, he has a valid explanation. Faramina removed his power before D3 ended.

[Herodotus]

I have reason to believe I know a scum
I will get back to you when the day is done

Either say it now, or just admit you're going to purposefully be anti-town.

@Andrius: I think it's clear that what Magister (and all of us) want to know is whether your role has been revealed to you. No one is asking you to claim anything beyond that. Do you want to "be subtle" on that yes or no question?

I wasn't expecting additional Elibereth votes, but they're welcome. I'd like to see what Elib is thinking.

Mockingjaye is also a reasonable candidate, but I would want to reread before I'd join that wagon due to my early town read on the playerslot.

I could see Andrius as recruited by Espeonage N1. Not sure how the connections would work with Gandalf and with Empking.

Empking, what exactly does your ability do?

I feel like I should point out that I probably would have made the same vig shot if I were in Amrun's position. I don't understand why the scum would have also targeted Spyrex.

I suspect Feysal is 60% likely lying, but that doesn't necessarily matter.

[Herodotus]

You seriously think there are 6 mafia... lol

This.

@MagnaofIllusion: Seems like a roundabout way to arrive at the conclusion that there is very likely one scum among (Elli and Mockingjaye).

[Herodotus]

That said how did you distill the bolded from my post? That%u2019s not what I said at all. Difficutly reading? I notice you specifically avoid mentioning yourself or MoS who are also Top picks form the MoIputer.

You said you were going to do some reading, and if you do, that should lead you to conclude that MoS and I are town(emphasis on should), leaving Elib and mockingjaye. So, it's a roundabout way to arrive at the conclusion that there is very likely one scum among (Elli and Mockingjaye).
You were supposedly looking for scum based on who was on each lynch wagon. But your playerslot and mine have been on the same lynch wagons so far, so by your own measurement, our scores would be identical.
You removed Sun and Moon post-analysis. Have you decided they are town? The wagon on them is just as good a place to look for scum as a lynch wagon.

town lynches

PeregrineV

- 12 - Dekes,

Feysal

, Empking,

SpyreX

, Gut, kanyeknowsbest, Magister Ludi,

VitaminR

,

Furcolow

, Andrius,

Espeonage

,

gandalf5166

VitaminR

- 10 - Herodotus, Gut, Empking,

Furcolow

, ooba, kanyeknowsbest, MagnaofIllusion,

Wraith

, Andrius,

Feysal

from skimming the votecounts, the sunandmoon wagon

Empking, MagnaofIllusion, Ellibereth, Andrius,

SpyreX

,

furcolow

, kanyeknowsbest

scum lynch

smargaret - 9 - Herodotus, kanyeknowsbest, Mastermind of Sin, Sun and Moon,

Furcolow

, Gut, Magister Ludi, mockingjaye, MagnaofIllusion

Confirmed that everyone alive appears at least once above.

Empking and Andrius have been on all of the townlynch/sunandmoon wagons and were not on the scumlynch wagon.

Every time someone calls Andrius town, I lose some respect for them. So far only regfan has stated a logically valid reason, and that was speculative.

UNVOTE:

[Herodotus]

Of course I don't think S&M are mafia anymore. Once I found out that we had enough information to discount that possibility, I no longer felt that S&M was a proper lynch. How did you miss that?

To be fair, I'm pretty sure you didn't actually say that, you just responded with "oops".

On Feysal:
I feel safe assuming Feysal was telling the truth about his WC and abilities.
I also think it's clear that Feysal tried to kill Sunandmoon, and will try again tonight if he is still alive. Some may disagree, but be reasonable: killing them would probably fulfill his win condition.

On Day 2, I wanted to leave Feysal alive for two reasons. One was that he might kill scum, and the other was that scum might kill him. He was a threat to them as long as he wasn't aiming specifically at town. Now he's aiming specifically at Sunandmoon (or maybe Magna, but I'm assuming Sunandmoon), and Sun is town.

We have 2 options:
Lynch Feysal
Don't lynch Feysal

Lynching Feysal removes him from the game, lets the scum and Sunandmoon make a kill as well as letting other PR's act, then we return to day.
Not lynching Feysal means that Sunandmoon and Feysal are removed from play tonight.

I think this is just a matter of numbers. We should choose the option that maximizes the number of town-directed kills, not counting a lynch of Feysal, and provides the best information for choosing those kills. Letting town PR's take an additional action should be a tiebreaker.
If we lynch Feysal, Sunandmoon can shoot mockingjaye if they decide to (whomever we would have lynched). The scum will probably kill Sunandmoon, but they would otherwise be killing someone else. On the other hand, Sunandmoon would lose an opportunity to shoot the "next" person after Mockingjaye. So at this point, I think the number of kills would work out the same either way. But we could get an extra round of other actions if we lynch Feysal.

Someone check my calculations. Or let me know if I'm wrong despite my calculations.

[Herodotus]

Herodotus: Feysal claims that he did NOT try to kill Sun & Moon, so why do you believe everything else he's told us about himself but think he's lying about targeting WoW directly?

The reason I believe that he tried to kill Sun and Moon is because I believe what he said about his win conditions. If you knew that your sole remaining goal in the game was to make sure Player X died before you, and you had a NK ability, and two doctors were already dead, would you think twice about using your NK on Player X?
And if you had said previously that you were going to kill Player Y (Dekes), would you instead kill Player Z (Willow)?
So why has he not admitted to targeting Player X? Because he expects that we would more likely lynch him for that than for killing Willow.

Kanyek, the scum didn't shoot Feysal when they had a reason to think he would aim to kill scum. Now they have a reason to think he will attempt to kill a townie; they aren't going to kill him.

Amrun has a point. There's some small chance that Feysal's role doesn't specify which of the two claimed Turin roles Feysal needs to outlive, making it dangerous for Feysal to aim at either of them and risk being lynched after hitting the wrong one. But consider that Magna and you both made a full nameclaim, and Feysal's role likely does give an exact name. (Let me mention again how it was a bad idea for Magna to nameclaim, if he's town. Especially with a role in the game that might want to kill him.)

One feature of a Feysal lynch is that it would guarantee that at least one of Magna or Sunandmoon would be able to survive Night 4 -- meaning either Magna would be around to share his N4 investigation or Sunandmoon would be able to kill on Night 5. That's not guaranteed if we lynch mockingjaye/Nacho/other (as opposed to letting Sunandmoon vig the one we would have lynched).

[Herodotus]

[quote="In post 2014, Furcolow"][/quote]
currently alive, or including smargaret?

[Herodotus]

Oh, right. To address what you said:

Well, the scum are going to shoot someone, whether it's sunandmoon or some other townie. The most obvious shot would be Magna, if he's town, based on his ability that I assume Faramina will restore at the end of the day. But regardless, dead townie.

And the way I see it, Feysal is likely to shoot sunandmoon tonight if he's able, so I don't expect the fear of an overlap to save him.

[Herodotus]

Andrius, will you be telling us whether you have a role, or will you not be telling us today?



Empking's recent posting.

[Herodotus]

Empking, what exactly does your ability do?

[Herodotus]

Only abilities?

[Herodotus]

I didn't say I believe Feysal...I don't even believe he was telling the truth about his wincon, so my opinion of whether or not he shot WoW is irrelevant, since he should die either way. I am trying to figure out why Herodotus believes EVERYTHING ELSE Feysal has said, but only now thinks the claimed SK might lie to us.

The role he claimed isn't SK.
Now that I've answered (post 2017), do you disagree with my explanation?

@Empking: I'm still stuck on:
1. you thinking that gandalf was lying scum despite what he said matching the ability you claimed
2. despite thinking he was lying, you choosing gandalf to target before Andrius
3. Andrius saying that he wasn't fixed/cured/whatever on night 2 - which implicates Andrius more than you

[Herodotus]

Ok. I don't feel like that would go anywhere now.

---

Just did an ISO of espeonage, then smargaret.
I think the comments Espeonage made when voting kanyek and after look like distancing from the lynch, making kanyek not a buddy.
I'd like to have a theory for Espeonage's two quick votes at the beginning of day 2. Should help to understand Andrius.

And that means more than the people that made it a wagon and weren't trying to save themseves, why?

This implies town things about the formation of the Pere wagon.
smargaret has me just slightly more convinced that Magna isn't a likely buddy. Her Magna vote per se doesn't mean much as she was being lynched and could have just wanted to do some last-second bussing. But the false dilemma in the demand that we lynch one of Magna/Sunandmoon puts her opposite to Magna. (It shows more strongly Sunandmoon to be not a buddy but I was already convinced of that.)

[Herodotus]

I have reasons for wanting espeonage alive that have nothing to do with his alignment. Just wait three days on that one.

Looking at gandalf's role, "Aerin, Town Twoshot-Sacrificial Arsonist", my interpretation from the flavour and rolename would be that he could target a player at night, then kill himself and the people (up to 2) that he had targeted. (It's not a useful role as I have stated it, but there may be more to it.) I think there is a possibility he meant he would be killing Espeonage (along with himself) after three days. That was what seemed most likely at the beginning of Day 3 before smargaret claimed.

FWIW, I don't think Empking is a good lynch today.

[Herodotus]

I've read only about half of that big post of mockingjaye's, but this paragraph looks like something a townie would say:

Acknowledging someone else has a good point doesn't mean I was doubting my own; I didn't agree with his reasoning, just as he didn't agree with mine. I was showing that I was considering what he was saying, but I didn't agree. I thought A LOT about it before I posted it. Saying I didn't is just your conjecture--like the only way I was really thinking it through was if I ended up changing my mind? But I DID think it through, and I didn't change my mind.

Still, mockingjaye:
What happens when Kanyek flips town?
Why are each of Regfan, Elib, and I near the top of your scumlist? I just searched for our names in your ISO, and they each hardly appeared before your post calling us all null-scum reads.

[Herodotus]

Nacho has done nothing to change my desire to remove Ellib from play. Definitely over mockingjaye.

What I see as ideal:
1. Faramina reactivates Magna (I'm assuming this wouldn't cause his death due to Sunandmoon not having been lynched earlier).
2. Lynch feysal; hopefully this also removes furcolow from the game.
3. Sunandmoon vigs Nacho, Nacho flips scum, and Magna investigates someone.

@Magister Ludi:
Do you feel that would be better than vigging mockingjaye, and slowing the NK's?

[Herodotus]

Thats what i'm thinking. Feysal has been a force for bad this entire game. Not really shot who we wanted, despite town asking him too.

We can't blame him for the shot he chose N3. This is only a practical issue.

ROFL. *Now* you guys get it? Sheesh. MoI and I have been warning you guys about Feysal all game...

And you were wrong at the time. The game has changed. If Magna and Sunandmoon hadn't claimed, and smargaret hadn't been lynched, I would not lynch Feysal.

Nacho has done nothing to change my desire to remove Ellib from play. Definitely over mockingjaye.

Why over Mockingjaye? I haven’t seen anything from that slot that looks particularly Town. Elli / Nacho aren’t necessarily less scummy but I’d like to know what you see in Mockingjaye that says “not Scum”.

I quoted a paragraph of Mockingjaye's on the last page that looked town. Most of what I have seen as towntells from Mockingjaye are like that; she's saying things like a townie would. It's not a major townread, but enough that I'd rather see Ellib/Nacho lynched/vigged sooner.

Mastermind is right that the NK issue couldn't have been intentional, so its not a scumtell, at least not for the reasons Magna is arguing.

Preview edit: read feysal's post. Will comment when I have more time.

[Herodotus]

If you are town, go back and read Espeonage's ISO, and look at his interactions with Kanye. Especially the time when he says something about his vote on Kanye finally being serious--like when it looked like Kanye was the lynch, right before Feysal managed to shift everyone onto Peregrine. Regfan--you have mentioned that I should have been more proactive in my case about Espeonage. Well, a lot of my feelings about him were connected with Kanye flipping scum, so I wanted Kanye dead first. Since Esp/Marg flipped scum, those feelings are already cemented. In Esp's ISO, he clearly tries to justify Kanye's actions for a period, warns him away from Gandalf, and finally busses him. I absolutely feel that they are on the same team, and if I had the power to make Kanye dead, I would.

Your theory looks a lot more reasonable now.
But Espeonage was quick to attack the D2 wagon on him. I think he more likely saw it as a mislynch.

If you are town, go back and look at the end of the day wagon on Kanye/Vitamin. With six votes on Kanye, three are confirmed to everyone, and four are confirmed to at least three of us (me, Andy, Amrun). I'm reading Amrun as town, so the only "iffy" slot I see on that wagon is Andy's.

If Kanye is town, why would there only be one potential mafia-scum on his wagon? (And I'm speaking from my perspective, which will be verified when I flip town.) Mind you, this is the

second

end-of-day that saw Kanye vs. Flipped Town, and given the apparent willingness of people to actually vote for Kanye, I don't see why scum wouldn't take glorious advantage of a Kanye mislynch rather than advance yet another counter-wagon late in the day.

I revisited my earlier analysis of the kanyek wagons. There have been a lot of revealed townies.

D1:

perev, willow

, mockingj,

wraith

,

ooba

,

sunandmoon

, gut,

feysal

,

espeonage

D2: (

wraith

,

furcolow

,

gandalf

, (

ooba

, eliber, (mockingj, andrius, (

willow

, magna

Didn't vote for him:

VitaminR

, MastermindOS, dekes,

spyrex

,

myself

Taking the above out of context, I could see elibereth and kanyek as buddies if Andrius, Magna, and you are all town.

I had a feeling that if Nacho came in the game and attacked me, he is town. This is because if he were scum, I have a feeling he would want to distance himself from my mislynch given the suspicion that is already surrounding his slot. Therefore, I have moved him into my town reads. Prior to this, I had moved him into my top five scum list based on Elli's play.

If Sun and Moon was convinced not to shoot you, that would make it more likely they would shoot him. He needs someone to push in front of the vig.
What you just posted above is the twisted logic that leads townies to think that scum are townies.

I think mockingjaye is town. Amrun, rhetorical question - do you think that scum would write something like what I just quoted from mockingjaye? If not, then she's a bad target.

I said in my last post that I thought my wagon was scum driven (hello, Kanye and Regfan, yes I WAS talking about you), but there is no way that everyone in that first group of four would be scum, and if there are two scum on the wagon, then the one or two left would probably split themselves between a variety of other options, i.e., tacitly defending me as town. Therefore, I'm thinking

Herod

is scum.

So to summarize, Nacho is town because he wants a townie lynched/vigged, and I'm scum because I'm one of a few people who don't support that? Also note that I didn't tacitly defend you, I called you a reasonable candidate for lynching until you started dropping towntells again.

And guess what, way back in his second post he says this:

Kanyek, maybe? I don't have a big scum read on him, but I'd be willing to sheep onto a wagon.

I think I explained why, but in case I didn't, it was because a lot of my town reads, including you, wanted to lynch him.

Not sure about Espeonage. I think he's just playing poorly.

His vig list in his ISO 18 is also a lovely thing. (I wouldn't have even noticed this at all if Ludi hadn't made it a point against me, but here Herod has Esp on that list, after 2 town--and before Esp's one-shot BP had been taken by Amrun's vig attmept on N2.)

I stand by the statement that Espeonage was playing poorly, even if he was scum, because he made us want to lynch him.
You can't conclude anything from my wanting Espeonage shot at the end of Day 2 without considering my first post of Day 3. He wasn't lynch-immune.

[Herodotus]

Oh I said I would comment on Feysal. I believe he has to say whatever he thinks will keep him alive until he can shoot Turin tonight, so the SK claim is probably a lie. But even if it isn't, lynching an SK is okay.

[Herodotus]

aw i wanted nacho to be scum but he isn't

No, he probably is.

So Nacho is posting a paragraph about each player as he evaluates them, and is only through a few people so far? Note how he declares that Mastermind's attacks on Magna were inaccurate, but didn't put up a paragraph about Magna. Has he already decided Magna is town? Why wouldn't that paragraph precede the one on Mastermind?

VOTE: Feysal
That's L-2. Andrius should coordinate the timing of the hammer with faramina.

[Herodotus]

Andrius is no longer in contact with Faramina from what I gathered and I'm still waiting for the new mouthpiece to come forward and post

Faraday

Minas list of reads before we even consider ending the day. I also want Nachos thoughts on every player in the game posted too.

1. I see that now, in Andrius's post.

2. There's no guarantee that there is one.

3. Okay. UNVOTE:

[Herodotus]

Hopefully he disappears when Feysal dies.

As I understand, faramina took the last action yesterday, meaning AGM/Thor was first today. Magna said they each have 36 hours. What isn't clear is whether they can act at any time during their turn, or if their action resolves when their 36 hours are finished. We need to know that to know if we are supposed to hammer during faramina's 36 hour period, or after it ends.

[Herodotus]

Confirming what Magna said in the last part of post 2124. I just checked that game including the scum QT; the town there responded by thinking he was town for being unaware of the mafia's two kills. I could definitely see him trying to use the same strategy again to look innocent.

[Herodotus]

I'm getting a decently strong scum-read on Herodotus, though. He has a few bad interactions with Espeonage/smargaret

Since you mention this, let's consider the interaction between your playerslot and Espeonage/smargaret.
Ellibereth, despite some lurking, said that any lurkerlynch is good, and only ever attacked anyone for lurking.
During Day 3, while voting for Sun and Moon, Elibereth posted a link to Espeonage's search. He left his vote on the townie.
This was Nacho's playerslot's only interaction with Espeonage: FoS'ing him in a weak manner while voting for town.
My interaction with Espeonage consisted of wanting him vigged, then lynching him.

he has had a few opportunistic moments

Thanks for the filler?

and he is defending mockingjaye in an awkward kind of way.

I embrace that accusation. My defense of Mockingjaye is a matter of finding towntells scattered in play that I don't find particularly protown, so it may be awkward.

Will expand on this later since it seems like the proper kind of case.

If you do, please start by giving us your definition of "opportunistic".

[Herodotus]

So Nacho is posting a paragraph about each player as he evaluates them, and is only through a few people so far? Note how he declares that Mastermind's attacks on Magna were inaccurate, but didn't put up a paragraph about Magna. Has he already decided Magna is town? Why wouldn't that paragraph precede the one on Mastermind?

1. Andrius
2. Magister Ludi (replacing ooba replacing Magister Ludi)
3. Sun and Moon (CSL + Amrun hydra)
6. Nachomamma8 (replacing Ellibereth)
7. Mastermind of Sin
8. Dekes
10. mockingjaye
11. Furcolow
12. Gut (Cogito Ergo Sum + chamber hydra)
15. Feysal (replacing Katsuki)
16. kanyeknowsbest
18. Empking
20. MagnaofIllusion
22. Herodotus (replacing LordChronos)

I'm having trouble taking your accusation seriously since the order of players that I do analysis on doesn't matter in any universe, or in any game. As for why I didn't post them all in one go, I made that perfectly clear in my post.

It's a detail, a scumslip. It means you had already "decided" about Magna, but didn't want to simply state your opinion of him.

Your posting the playerlist doesn't mean much. I see now that you were partly following the order of the player numbers, but to me that means you felt that you needed an external guide to give you an arbitrary order. While I'll admit that this may be confirmation bias and it may not convince anyone, it just looks scummy to me.

Gut:
... I really don't like his floaty period inbetween his Vitamin suspicion and his suspicion of me.

If I understand correctly, this "floaty period" was Day 3 in which Gut proposed the gambit with Empking that you commented on, defended a townie, and lynched scum. How is that floaty?

[Herodotus]

The flip makes kanye look a lot better, mjay. It also basically clears MoS in my opinion.

What was this in relation to? (In particular, which flip?)

@Nachom: Do you believe that any mafia voted for either of Sun and Moon or Empking yesterday?

To be fair I have to ask myself the same question regarding the VitaminR lynch. Gut, Andrius, and Kanyek seem like realistic possibilities, though I don't have an overall scum read on any of them.

Spoiler: Not game-relevant, or at least not very

(The following is meant as an aside)
@Mockingjaye: You asked about the VCA numbers. From what I can tell, Magna's method was to assume the scum are equally distributed between on and off every lynch wagon, remove people from the wagons who were either confirmed town or strong town reads, assign points to people on each wagon/nonwagon by dividing by the number of unremoved wagoners/nonwagoners, and add those points together. I think such a system is clever, as it can in theory catch bussing as well as nonbussing scum, and the assumption that scum are likely to be both on and off the lynchwagon is often true. It has some negatives, though, as it considers each wagon/nonwagon and player independently (ignoring correlations) in order to make the calculations manageable and possible to show in-thread. Also, Magna ran the analysis with the assumption that the scum don't have a bias for wanting to lynch townies instead of each other.

[Herodotus]

Agree with Magister Ludi. I would prefer that Feysal win rather than lose; if he hadn't claimed otherwise I would probably think he was town, he managed to outlive 3 of his targets, and his post helped lynch espeonage. That deserves respect.
But I expect my win condition to be better served if he is unable to kill Turin tonight.

More seriously, why do you think that lynching me would be okay even if I was a serial killer? In that case, you should recognize that I have given up, and at least consider my offer. If genuine, it could result in town gain.

If I believed you were a SK, I think I'd still want to lynch you, though not as much. As long as you were in the game, the town couldn't win, so there wouldn't be a way to let you win with the town. The mafia don't seem to want to kill you, so we would have to lynch or vig you eventually. Giving you one extra night would provide a chance that you would shoot scum, but also a chance that you would shoot town. You might even kill Sunandmoon as a SK, because masons are so dangerous to SK's and out of concern for being vigged.

[Herodotus]

because masons are so dangerous to SK's

Want to elaborate on that one?

An SK (or any other lone scum) can never win while there are 2 living townies. If there are 2 townies who both know the other to be town, they will never vote each other. The SK will lose if they don't kill at least one of them before it's too late. (This applies more to guaranteed town masons, but their roles seem to give them some confidence in the other so it still applies partially.)
The smaller the scumgroup, the less tolerant they can afford to be of confirmed townies. A large group might leave a confirmed innocent alive if that innocent is playing poorly or has no abilities, and endgame them.

[Herodotus]

What was this in relation to? (In particular, which flip?)

In relation to the Espeonage clip, clearly. I think it was clear in context but you probably read this in iso.

Not in ISO. The reason I unsure was because there were three flips, espeonage/smargaret, spyrex, and willowisp.

[Herodotus]

because masons are so dangerous to SK's

Want to elaborate on that one?

An SK (or any other lone scum) can never win while there are 2 living townies. If there are 2 townies who both know the other to be town, they will never vote each other. The SK will lose if they don't kill at least one of them before it's too late. (This applies more to guaranteed town masons, but their roles seem to give them some confidence in the other so it still applies partially.)
The smaller the scumgroup, the less tolerant they can afford to be of confirmed townies. A large group might leave a confirmed innocent alive if that innocent is playing poorly or has no abilities, and endgame them.

Right, what about this situation specifically makes you think the masons would make any sense as a kill choice for feysal SK? I don't care about generalities.

I was thinking in terms of generalities, not specifics.
I can give you a couple ideas specific to this game, though I don't see any point to your questioning:
1. If both players who have claimed the name "turin" were dead and feysal was still alive, it would be evidence of his SK-ness (odd that a player would feel the need to prove that they are an SK).
2. With Amrun specifically, it would only be a matter of time before he would shoot Feysal, if Feysal wasn't lynched.
3. If they trust each other enough, a Magister/Amrun voting bloc would auto-lynch Feysal at endgame. So Feysal-SK would eventually lose if he didn't either kill at least one of them, get lucky and see the mafia kill at least one of them, or convince them not to trust each other.

So why did you ask all this about a hypothetical SK's future kills?

[Herodotus]

It might be useful to wait for another cycle.

That way, Magna can check the timing with a trial run. If he loses the ability ~36 hours later, faramina can grant it again at the 72 hour mark. Or, faramina can pull someone into the QT to arrange a time for hammering.

[Herodotus]

If I understand correctly, this "floaty period" was Day 3 in which Gut proposed the gambit with Empking that you commented on, defended a townie, and lynched scum. How is that floaty?

Proposing the gambit was townie, yes, but it didn't do much for in thread action.
And there is a massive difference in defending a townie and lynching scum as opposed to what actually occurred, which is Gut mentioned that a townie was town and voted for scum. The aggressive, active, scum-searching is more or less what I'm looking for, less of the accuracy.

That's more reasonable than how I first understood it. But if I remember correctly, Gut was defending Sunandmoon pretty heavily.

@Nachom: Do you believe that any mafia voted for either of Sun and Moon or Empking yesterday?

Maybe, probably, why do I care?

Mockingjaye, your main concern is that I have too few scum reads. This is true. I'm looking at some of my townreads and reevaluating, slowly. What I meant for the IOU to apply on is explaining that kanye read... I'm afraid the small amount of scum reads is more of an i owe everyone sort of deal...

These are connected. Your reads on everyone but us were leaning toward town. If you think there were no mafia voting for Sunandmoon even though they could join that wagon without much scrutiny due to the guilty result claimed, AND no mafia voting for the counterwagon on Empking, I don't see how you can see me as a buddy who decided to bypass both of them and bus.

I'm ready to hammer.

[Herodotus]

VOTE: Feysal

[Herodotus]

Magister, did faraday mention a read on nacho?

[Herodotus]

I am also still paranoid about Herod's defense of me.

I don't want you lynched or vigged. There was already a much better target, and your recent posting has been even more town-looking.
The claim was a very bad move, but not a scumtell.

[Herodotus]

My guess is Andrius joined the mafia team N2 when Empking claims to have targeted him first. Then he claimed to still have no role so people would dismiss him.
Or N1. There could have been some role interaction between Gandalf receiving his role and/or becoming Espeonage's neighbour and Andrius joining Espeonage's faction.
I don't think Empking is to blame for Andrius being mafia, considering all the discussion about the subject from Gandalf/Andrius/Empking.

@Amrun: Did Magister Ludi support shooting Andrius? Obviously if so, that looks good for him, if he tried to convince you to spare Andrius, it looks less good (unless the target he supported also flips scum in which case it looks very good for him).

@Gut: I didn't believe Feysal was a SK, I thought he was the lyncher-like role he had earlier claimed. So I didn't put much thought into the hypothetical situation where he was a Serial Killer, and out of laziness I just used the generality that SK's need to minimize the number of confirmed (or nearly confirmed) innocents. I can see in retrospect that his killing Amrun would probably have meant his being lynched on Day 5, but there's a reasonable possibility he would have killed Magister Ludi. And again, Feysal-SK would have had almost no chance of winning with both masons/neighbors alive, or with a vig alive after it became known that he was a SK, so eventually he needed Amrun dead, even if he couldn't immediately take the shot.

[Herodotus]

Oh, I forgot about his NK-immunity, meaning he didn't have to worry about being vigged. But the rest is still relevant.

[Herodotus]

The interactions between Andrius and Nacho aren't very strong, but I think they lean just slightly toward supporting Nacho as town. That doesn't give me a townread on Nacho, but it reduces my scumread.

[Herodotus]

1. Andrius called Nacho scum in his second to last post.
2. Nacho's comments in 2096 and 2133 were more negative toward Andrius than I realized yesterday. At first I considered them as scum simply seeding a future mislynch , but given that Andrius was mafia, that's out. And given that Nacho was doubting that Andrius had the role he had, I have to interpret it as a more immediate attack.

@Gut: why was Andrius blue in your VCA?

[Herodotus]

Nacho was doubting that Andrius had the role he claimed to have

EBWOP

[Herodotus]

@Magister Ludi: if there is a guilty result on Mastermind of Sin, it isn't.

So MoS has posed in two threads that he was not modding since I posted my request ...

Deciding in your QT what the best reaction to this information is MoS?

The most recent post I see from Mastermind was before Day 5 started (http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1#p3610631). Did he delete something?

But this delay is boring.

@Mod: requesting a prod for Mastermind of Sin

[Herodotus]

We don't have a "report" yet, but... it would probably be best if you reread day 5.

[Herodotus]

How do the two of you know this?

VOTE: Mastermind of Sin
L-3

[Herodotus]

Okay. I knew that existed, but didn't think of it.

Same is true for Nacho. Last logged off from MS about one hour ago, at about the same time as the Mod announced prods.

[Herodotus]

Wait, what exactly does "last visited" mean? Is it the last time the account was logged in, the last time it was logged out, or something else?

[Herodotus]

Sorry for triple posting. I just experimented using my own account. The time listed appears unreliable, but it's the log out time.

[Herodotus]

UNVOTE:

After this game, I think you should reevaluate the accuracy of the assumption that the "Expected scum on/off wagon" is independent of the alignment of the person lynched.

LOL, I've peeked ahead at the results Magna will be deriving...

[Herodotus]

That's a particularly anti-scientific approach. How can you say that you would consider something that would be a "head and shoulders improvement", if you refuse to evaluate ideas outside of the system you use?

If you're going to remove Sun and Moon, why not do it at an earlier stage, such as when removing the players who have died?

[Herodotus]

Just noticed Chronopie's beleg crumb on that page.

I don't think Andrius's Day 1 posts are useful for making connections between him and others. His "goon" role doesn't imply he started knowing he was scum any more than gandalf's role implied he started knowing he was town. If we want to figure out when he was scum, we should look at his level of enthusiasm for the game. He likes being town and dislikes being scum. During day 1, he was active, during day 4, he was prod dodging. Somewhere in between, he found out he was anti-town, and his play changed.
Fact: More than half of the length of Andrius's ISO is Day 1 (based on scrolling the page).