The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[mockingjaye]

I know I'm late in joining the fray, but I'm catching up now and will post soon.

[mockingjaye]

@Ludi: Technically, I'm an alt, but I only played a couple of games on another account last year before switching for personal reasons; I use this account exclusively now and have for a while, but I generally only play one game at a time. I've never been in a game with you before.

____

First, Empking

. I don't like that his ISO is filled with questions, a lot of them leading (25 posts, mostly one-liners, and 19 questions). This feels like a way to appear more active than he really is, especially since he stayed on Gandalf for as long as it was "safe" to stay there, and once the wagon was obviously dead in the water, switched to Katsuki without any reasoning when it became apparent that the Katsuki wagon is gaining popularity. Also, for the frequency of posts, he hasn't commented on anything else that has happened, so I'm thinking he's scum who is just sticking to easy targets/active lurking (and currently getting by with it).

FoS: Empking

Second, Kanye.

I don't like Kanye's concern that Gandalf is a lyncher-role and is worried about who his targets might be; this feels more scum-motivated than town since Gandalf had already claimed third-party at that point, and had he maintained his claim/full-claimed an actual role, it would have been difficult for him to succeed in lynching someone with a town claim, and I think scum would have much more to worry about.

I also want clarification on this post:

1)

i stand by lynching claimed third party.

2)

its possible there is scum on the gandalf wagon because it is the "town thing to do" but

3)

i think it is more likely that scum are on the sidelines

4)

waiting to try and lynch someone off of the gandalf wagon.

5)

claimed third party can be saved for a nonscum lynch down the road, and

6)

if they can convert an early push on the third party into a town lynch, all the better.

7)

im still into a gandalf lynch, but ill take a look and see if any of these people jumping onto wagons off of that wagon look scum to me.

There's no attempt at any kind of VCA to support this. I'm also confused by the message. This is how I'm reading your post:

1) you want to lynch claimed 3rd party;
2) scum might be be on the Gandalf wagon just to look more town, but
3) it's more likely that scum are not on the wagon because
4) they want to lynch someone off the Gandalf wagon? (Do you mean a]someone not currently on the wagon, or b]someone who jumps off the wagon?) Next,
5) scum would rather save his lynch for later...why later and not today? And,
6) are you saying scum would rather try to get town lynched than 3rd party in this statement? And
7) if you think that scum are more likely on the sidelines than jumping ship from the Gandalf wagon, then who are they?

So basically, you want to lynch Gandalf, and you'll look at people on his wagon and see if they appear scummy to you, but you really believe that scum are NOT on the wagon but are instead plotting to accuse people on the wagon who move to another wagon. No names, no specifics, no reasoning for this other than WIFOM about why/how scum might be setting up a lynch on town/third party (which seems to be designed specifically to clear you of any suspicion).

Also, what is the status of [7]? Any of "those people jumping onto wagons off of that wagon" give you any scum vibes, or are they really all off the wagon? And who are they again?

Finally, in Post 47, as a response to Ludi's suggestion that in past games those who have run up a 3rd Party lynch were actually scum, you make a very defensive reply: "you can say i was trying to do it for town cred later on but its a bit early for that." This comment was superfluous to the first half of your response and leads me to believe you are actually concerned with having your motivations questioned, ESPECIALLY given Post 227, in which you claim to believe the scum are most likely not even on the wagon but instead plotting from the sidelines AND your repeated statements that lynching claimed 3rd-party is pro-town.

Vote: Kanye

[mockingjaye]

Emp

, IMO, the wagon was obv-dead a while before people started leaving it; that's what I meant.

Kanye

: I asked you a question. You can't have missed my post--it was the really big one mostly dedicated to you on page fifteen, so please respond.

Also, what is the status of [7]? Any of "those people jumping onto wagons off of that wagon" give you any scum vibes, or are they really all off the wagon? And who are they again?

And by [7], I am referring to my analysis of one of your earlier posts. Feel free to address anything else I said, too.

Vitamin

: I disagree with your opinion that the post of Kanye's that I analyzed is insignificant. I find it VERY significant.

Wisp

: Vitamin changed his mind about Kanye after Kanye originally posted Post 227/ISO 16, which could be why he takes issue with my choosing the post that changed his mind and made him think Kanye was town as the post that convinced me Kanye was scum. (I'm presuming here,

Vitamin

, so if I'm wrong, tell me. Also, as it was the post that appears to have changed your mind about Kanye, why do you find it so insignificant?)

Andy

: I've missed you, too. <3

Basically I'm happy with my vote being on Kanye. Empking is still getting away with his "questions as content", which doesn't help my opinion of his scumminess, either. In response to Andy, I think Kats is scummy. I don't like how the discussion between him and MoI devolved into something so nasty; it really made reading unpleasant. Now I want to see how I feel about the replacement before making a final call on that slot. As for Spyrex, he's a beautiful princess, so he's either telling the truth and is town or he is scum that is investigation-immune; if he weren't one or the other, he would have to know he's putting himself out there as a high-risk for investigation, and that would be decidedly bad for scum.

As for Gandalf and Andy, them not knowing their own alignments leaves the question as to how to handle them. Of the two, Gandalf's claim is definitely more problematic than Andy's, but like he keeps pointing out, also doesn't make sense as a scum-play. I'd rather hold off on acting on that today, though, because I really want to see what Plum is up to with this and at least give it until tomorrow. (And as Andy knows, I'm wickedly curious about the "stories" told by the mods. )

[mockingjaye]

Feysal: I refer you to Battle of Olympus (Large Theme) game where the third-party serial-killer (who was in truth a

totally justified

Vigilante

) had a marvelous time roleplaying, and where an Egyptian scum did a bang-up job roleplaying as his Greek counterpart as well. Therefore, I think someone's roleplaying enjoyment level is a null tell in regards to alignment.

Also, I don't like the p***ing contest over flavor.

Regarding Espeonage, I don't like the early Furc vote in a post where he talks about several other people and not Furc himself; he also doesn't mention Furc in preceding or subsequent posts. He then votes Gandalf instead despite claiming that he didn't think Gandalf was scum a few posts before that; the only reason for the change was that Furc was "entertaining" and "could be the day two lynch" instead. He then sets about justifying Kanye's vote on Gandalf but not his own.

Kanye has still not responded to my question from Saturday.

Kanye: I asked you a question. You can't have missed my post--it was the really big one mostly dedicated to you on page fifteen, so please respond.

Also, what is the status of [7]? Any of "those people jumping onto wagons off of that wagon" give you any scum vibes, or are they really all off the wagon? And who are they again?

And by [7], I am referring to my analysis of one of your earlier posts. Feel free to address anything else I said, too.

The game has progressed quite a bit since I first asked you this, but I still want to know the answer.

Spy: Do you think KKB is town just because he wants Gandalf and Andy to be lynched? I'm confused as to what happened between this:

katsuki has many scumpoints, and I would be probably be down with a kats wagon.

I saw MoI make a constructive post, katsuki try to dismiss it with a pointless oneliner, then MoI unfortunately stopped posting seriously and came down to katsuki's level, and they weren't getting anywhere after that. MoI, don't dignify 366 with a response. Terrible scum tactic: trying to derail the thread with insults and hope kanye slips under the radar.

and this:

These wagons do not make me happy at all. At all.

What am I missing, because you seemed to be suggesting earlier there was a connection between Kats and Kanye. What do you think of Kanye not responding at all to the question I posed to him on Saturday, even though he posted several times after I did?

I'm still happy with my vote, and Espeonage is the first person to grace my list of Potential Kanye Buddies, so grats on that. Emp and Feysal are idling with an FoS right now.

[mockingjaye]

1) i stand by lynching claimed third party.2) its possible there is scum on the gandalf wagon because it is the "town thing to do" but 3) i think it is more likely that scum are on the sidelines 4) waiting to try and lynch someone off of the gandalf wagon. 5) claimed third party can be saved for a nonscum lynch down the road, and 6) if they can convert an early push on the third party into a town lynch, all the better. 7) im still into a gandalf lynch, but ill take a look and see if any of these people jumping onto wagons off of that wagon look scum to me.

if i had a strong scum read my vote would be on that person instead of gandalf.

You wanted to lynch Gandalf because he was claimed third-party, not because you thought he was scum. After a full week and 23 pages, out of the entire cast of players here, he's the only person you have a scum read on? Really? My vote stands.


Furc: I just reread your ISO; I think the first time I read your comments about Esp they just didn't register because they were blanketed in your argument about Gandalf and flavor, and you were flipping out about people voting for you, too, so I probably dismissed your comments as part of that freakout. I've been rereading various ISOs trying to make sense of the game and his stood out for the reasons I posted. But, yes, I see you've already made all those points, so belated credit to you.

[mockingjaye]

*EBWODP: Added material in parentheses/changed a word:

You wanted to lynch Gandalf because he was claimed third-party, not because you thought he was scum. After a full week and 23 pages, out of the entire cast of players here, he (as claimed third party) is the only person you have a

scum

strong read on? Really? My vote stands.

[mockingjaye]

im pretty apathetic to a lynch on the basis of my attacks on gandalf but

if theres more to it id like to hear it and defend those points.

I can't speak for Ludi or anyone else voting you, but for me there is more, and I've already ASKED you to respond to those points.

Kanye has still not responded to my question from Saturday.

Kanye: I asked you a question. You can't have missed my post--it was the really big one mostly dedicated to you on page fifteen, so please respond.

Also, what is the status of [7]? Any of "those people jumping onto wagons off of that wagon" give you any scum vibes, or are they really all off the wagon? And who are they again?

And by [7], I am referring to my analysis of one of your earlier posts. Feel free to address anything else I said, too.

The game has progressed quite a bit since I first asked you this, but I still want to know the answer.

THIS is why I'm voting you. You said you thought the scum were most likely NOT on Gandalf's wagon, and offered no thoughts. You said you would look at people jumping off Gandalf's wagon as potential scum, and offered no thoughts. A week and a half, 27 pages, and almost 650 posts in this game, and the only person you find worthy of lynching is Gandalf? Even if he ends up being scum, he is not the one and only scum in the game; that's not possible.

You haven't done anything to try to find scum; you haven't followed up on your own supposition that scum were off the wagon and not on it. I still think you came up with that whole scenario to help yourself get off a bad wagon without looking scummy. In my first post to you I pointed out I thought you were doing things that showed you were concerned with how you were being perceived and being questioned and comments I thought looked like you were trying to do some massive amounts of CYA. You haven't addressed any of this. Now I'm reading you as nervous scum who isn't sure what to do after his preferred lynch fell through and pressure fell on him, so instead of trying to play the game, he's just lying low and chanting "that's my story and I'm sticking to it."

You claim you want to defend yourself? Who is scum? Besides Gandalf, whom you are still calling third-party?

In case you need a prompt to help you along, try this one: what do you think of Espeonage, Feysal, Empking, Andrius, Spy, and MoI?

[mockingjaye]

Okay, so what do you think of the wagon on Feysal? The people on it or not on it? Is it scum-driven or innocent, like the way you think the Gandalf wagon was innocent? Who do you think is scum, and if the wagons on you and Feysal are on town as you claim/believe, then what would be a better wagon--other than Gandalf-- and why is Gandalf a better lynch than Andy? Also, what about the wagon on you? Is IT scum-driven or innocent? Do you have any sort of reaction at all to the people voting for you and their reasons?

[mockingjaye]

Spy: I refer you to posts 652, 654, 655, and 662 on the previous page. I asked Kanye something in 652; he replied in 654, and I replied to his response in 655, and his only response to that post was 662. You say you don't get the wagon, so there's my reasoning on a silver platter.

This reminds me, I had a question for you in 550, and I would still like to know the answer to that as well.

Andy: I had already mentioned what I think about Feysal; he's in my top five scum reads. As for Spy, I said in 471 that

As for Spyrex, he's a beautiful princess, so he's either telling the truth and is town or he is scum that is investigation-immune; if he weren't one or the other, he would have to know he's putting himself out there as a high-risk for investigation, and that would be decidedly bad for scum.

That's as about as clear as I am on him. I don't get the love for Kanye or the avoidance of my question from 550. He's a very difficult read for me overall, and definitely not someone I can read on D1.

Just a side note: CSL and Amrun have been happily posting in other threads, so Sun&Moon is rounding out my top five.

Also, Andy, you stopped wanting to be my neighbor when Magna got the mystical message from on high. I see how it is. Good thing I'm not the jealous type in this game, lol.

[mockingjaye]

So it seems I am once again late to the battle (becoming a habit of mine), but I'm feeling Spy's comment about Peregrine's timing and am not opposed to lynching him. He's at L-1, so are we ready for the hammer? Because I know I have some things to say before the day ends. (And hopefully some questions of mine will be answered before the hammer?)

First, I think it's impossible that there isn't at least one scum between Kanye and Feysal. I don't like that both their wagons have idled for so long or that Pere is now today's lynch instead of one of them.

Note to Furc

: I was the second vote on the KKB wagon, and my vote wasn't in RVS, and it wasn't random at all, so yes, he is just that damn scummy. I have repeatedly asked Kanye very specific questions, and he has avoided them as much as possible, and the few he did answer were barely answered at all, and I still think he's scum, and that isn't likely to change after the teeth-pulling I've been doing with him.

Note to Spy

: Why do you think only one of KKB/Feysal could be scum? Why not both?

The only thing giving me pause is how matched these wagons are. That, so my tutors tell me, would make one believe that ONE of the two are scum. Normally a town wagon would just push through by now.

Note to all

: Feysal's case on Pere came after Empking said he thought they were scum together. (Post 711) Also,

why Pere vs. S&M

, when both heads had been actively posting in other games? The case in 757 also gives me scum vibes, especially with sentences like "And to think that I criticized Dekes for still having his vote on PeregrineV... Now I'm about to join him. Seeing PeregrineV also on the kanye wagon gives me major doubts about that." If Pere flips scum, Feysal still isn't off the hook.

Feysal, explain why you're likely to be wrong about Kanye being scum if you're right about Pere being scum? (Post 796 for reference.) Because I'm not seeing how one would clear the other.

3) If they wanted to save kanye, why a third wagon? If it was kanye, all the scum would have to do is pile on me like Andrius has been asking people to.

Connecting the dots in that post, if you and Kanye are have scum PRs, and the wagons have idled this long, you decide to sacrifice someone without a PR (Pere) and hopefully buy more time for the two of you. Because I'm not seeing how PereScum = KanyeTown, but I DO get that PereScum=Feysal-Maybe-Not-Scum. *If Pere does flip scum, this is especially important to remember; if he flips town, somewhat less so, aside from the fact that it did buy more time for actual scum.

Esp: Why the "FML" before your vote?

Finally: Regarding MoI's message, I don't think it would make sense as town or scum for someone to fake a message from the seraphs on D1 given that we don't know what they do and thus risk their wrath in whatever form it might take, so I'm inclined to believe what he has passed on.

[mockingjaye]

I haven't had a chance to read D2 yet; I'm sorry. It's almost 6 am here and I haven't slept, but I will post later today, when I'm coherent again. Here's a preview, though. Kanye is still scum.

[mockingjaye]

First, I'm sorry about not posting. One of my cats got sick this weekend and she died Monday, and because of that, I didn't feel like doing much of anything for the past few days, so I didn't. Second, Ludi, if you're still reading, I hope everything goes well and you're in my prayers. Third, congratulations to SpyreX and his new baby. Oh and fourth, I hope you've had a good holiday, Plum.

Now back to the game.

I can't comment on activity levels since mine have been so lacking today, but I had a strong scum read on Kanye on D1, and that hasn't gone away. I know Feysal is claimed 3rd Party whatever, but I think we're in a solid enough position as a town to put off his lynch a day or two, depending on how things go. SKs aren't always bad: Gollum from the

LOTR

game last year, for example, was very beneficial to the town, and time is still on our side right now.

Also, there has been talk about the SK (which was Katy and I) from

Olympus

, and as that SK, I made a case for not lynching us in that game since we had a wincon that would have allowed us to win with town under a certain circumstance. I'm going to stick with that here, because Feysal will now either have to kill as assigned or not kill at all, and I'm actually thinking it's best he doesn't kill at all in case there is a redirector or some other type of shenanigans in play which could manipulate his targets/shots, at least until we have a better handle on the mechanics of the game itself and/or see more flips. That would settle the problem of scum interfering with his kills. Feysal may not like it, but he's been outed and doesn't have much choice but to do as told.

What I want to know from Feysal, though, is how many targets he has, the exact nature of his wincon, and his kill flavor if specified.

I want a Kanye lynch today. In addition to everything I said about him yesterday, I'd like to remind everyone that several people have stated something to the effect of that either Kanye or Feysal must be scum given the turnaround on the wagon yesterday, and no one really objected to that sentiment, and in fact, it seems to have been pretty much accepted. So, to be painfully obvious, Feysal is claiming 3rd party, and Furc is backing him up, so that would suggest that said scum is Kanye.

Vote: Kanye

For pretty much everything I said yesterday, so if you don't remember, go back and read my comments. In fact, some of you should anyway because I had questions that may still be relevant for you. (Ahem, Espeonage.)

[mockingjaye]

Mockingjaye has almost singularly been focused on Kanye for the entire game. Her posts have been very verbose, but if you can stop your eyes from glazing over and actually look at the details, it's nearly all about Kanye. That's a hell of a lot of posting just about one player being scum. It's either tunnel vision or an attempt to look like she's contributing a lot without actually commenting on anything else that's going on in the game. (She made a brief comment on Gandalf/Andrius, hasn't said anything about MoI, and made a short argument in favor of keeping Feysal alive that actually made no sense because she's trusting a third party player to correctly report their wincon rather than just make one up that will please the town!)

1. I think Kanye is scum, so yes, I've posted a lot about him. I have also discussed several others who I think are scum, too, but you either didn’t read my posts or are deliberately ignoring what I said about Empking, Espeonage, and S&M. (The comments about Pere and Feysal obviously don’t matter much anymore.) If you want to know WHY I think he's scum, go read my posts again, then read his responses to my questions to him, if you can find them. He skated around a couple when pressed more than once and flat out ignored most of them.

2. I don’t generally discuss null/town reads unless asked about someone specifically, which is the reason I haven’t discussed MoI. If he hits my top five list, you'll know. That's something you wouldn't know about me necessarily, so I can see you making a comment that I've only talked about a handful of people. HOWEVER, I haven’t discussed a lot of people, including you, so why does it concern you that I haven’t specifically talked about MoI?

3. I said there was no reason to kill Feysal today. Actually lynching a mafia member would be more beneficial than outright lynching a third player today. If he had been outed on D3 or 4, and we had managed to also lynch a mafia member, then I wouldn’t necessarily advocate keeping him alive any longer. As it happens, it’s D2, and there was only one kill last night, so we’re in a pretty good position numbers-wise, so why not chain his kill?

If you really read my last post, you would also know that I was the SK in the last game I was in, and I argued for the same thing when we were caught (we were a hydra). In that game, our role was to kill all the male Olympians and then we would win and leave the game. Therefore we could have won with the town, since there were also female Olympians. The SK from Plum's first

LOTR

game last year was also able to win with the town. Given these two examples, I'm not trigger-happy with SKs this early in the game. There's a decent chance that he's lying about his wincon, but even so, I still don't want to lynch him today. It has nothing to do with trusting him or not; it has to do with town having some measure of power over a kill while we try to flip scum and figure out some of the other mechanics of the game.

4. Talking down to people isn't helping your argument. Just saying.

___

Right now I still want to lynch Kanye. I don't like that the wagons are stalled, again, and that he's one of them, again. I also don't like his showing up only after it looks like he's close to being lynched and dishes out that "either both/neither" comment. Also, the comments about the wagon being stupid or retarded, or something from RVS, or whatever other reason all seem to be motivated by wanting to deflect a lynch on him rather than sincerely wanting to lynch someone else, which only makes me want his lynch more. Esp and Emp are also still on my list, but they haven't had much to say today. I'm still debating a few reads, but for now, those are my lynch preferences.

[mockingjaye]

Okay, so in writing out my argument about why I disagree with SpyreX’s point about Kanye and the D1 wagons that I wrote myself into understanding if not completely agreeing with his argument. I have been reading a lot of today’s reactions to Kanye as being “Save Kanye” and thinking he might be a scum PR, but that wouldn’t explain why scum wouldn’t work harder on a Feysal lynch yesterday; they probably could have pushed it through. It definitely makes sense, but I still also think it makes lots of sense that he is scum and the third-party Feysal lynch didn’t push through because of people’s commitments to stances early in the game and that Pere offered them a safety net to eschew all obligations to either wagon. So yes, it's a viable reasoning, but it's also still conjecture, and I'm not convinced enough to move my vote.

The fact that the wagon is again stalled on Kanye is still bothering me, and I also have very negative feelings about how Kanye has played, and how he has interacted with me in particular, because I think I gave him lots of opportunities to change my mind in D1 and he didn’t even try, and his whole “either both or neither” comment today really bothers me, as does his timing and reactive rather than proactive play. I think it’s equally logical that he is scum based on these things and the fact that a lot of the defense (self and otherwise) of Kanye is tied up in speculation of other possibilities rather than in more concrete evidences. I'm sticking with my read here.


MoS: regarding the list you gave me, I have addressed most of those things at some point, including MoI and the seraphs. As to the Pere wagon, I obviously feel like it was a way to pull votes off Kanye and Feysal with minimal repercussions.

If Feysal kills tonight, my top choices are Espeonage and Empking, and my third choice would be S&M.

[mockingjaye]

Ooba, go back and read my D1 posts. I'm not saying anything about him that I haven't already made perfectly clear.

[mockingjaye]

OOba, if you go back and read my posts you would see Espeonage and Empking have been on my list since D1.

[mockingjaye]

I'm reading now and will be caught up tomorrow.

[mockingjaye]

I think I've twisted this around in my head every possible way today, and for me, the knot is in this:

A) I think MoI is town; after trying to see this from every possible angle today, it's the only thing that makes sense. The timing of everything is just off for it to be some crazy scum or third-party gambit.
B) I've had a mild scum-read on S&M up until now, so if the Seraphs hadn't backed up S&M's name claim, I wouldn't be having any issues with this lynch.
C) However, I can also see Turin becoming a miller after killing Beleg both because of lore and bastard elements in the game.
D) The Seraphs seem to be confirming (as filtered through Andy) both S&M's identity and MoI's unlocked ability.
E) Therefore, I can see both Turins being town.

The problem now is mainly in the question of using a lynch on one town to save another town, thus giving up a chance to lynch scum and risking losing the other Turin to a NK anyway, but, I disagree with Feysal that MoI is a lost cause regardless of today's action; there could be another person with a role that could be used to keep him alive, at least for one more night. If we don't vote his guilty, we can't even hope for that much since there is no stopping a suicide. I'm leaning pretty heavily on the "save MoI" side right now.

I want to know/point out a couple of things before I vote.

1) Amrun/ooba/CSL: in Plum's last

LOTR

game, the masons were alignment confirmed in their PMs. Link here: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 7#p2618697 It doesn't sound like your PMs have the same information. Bastard game or not, there is a precedent for Plum to specify alignment for masons. Plus, ooba said this, indicating he doesn't have a confirmed alignment:

it is unlikely that S&M is scum due to a few reasons:

2) MoI: Your claim is Turin Turambar? I am wondering if the two Turins might be related to his before/after taking the name Turambar. Amrun/CSL: is there any surname for your role? This is minor; I'm mostly interested for speculation purposes.

3) Andy: Are Faramina withholding comment until all their questions are answered? Where do they stand in this mess?

P.S. to Andy: Right now my paranoia is at epic levels.

[mockingjaye]

1. Feysal: Does your wincon/PM have any information that would lead you to believe that the existence of two Turins is possible?

2. Seraphs: Knowing that S&M is Turin, what is your take on MoI's claim? What do you think should be done?

3. What is this from Empking about not giving Andy his role? Because I can see how town Seraphs may not let someone they think is scum give someone a scum role. Empking, did you give Gandalf his role? If you did give Gandalf his role, why him first and not Andy, since you spent a lot of time voting Gandalf on D1? If you didn't give Gandalf his role, then we can assume whoever did give him the town role is town and you aren't based on the Seraph's reaction.

4. Gut: You said you already know the Seraphs can millerize. How do you know this, and do you think they--and not the killing of Chronopie--are what made S&M into a miller? Because given the fact that they claimed to know S&M is Turin, if they had also millerized Turin, then I would think they would also claim that as well.

5. Herod: I haven't thought much about Furc past his claim yesterday. Today he seems to have forgotten he's the one who has confirmed Feysal as 3rd Party/Not Evil by suggesting that he is actually scum. However, until we sort through the mess on the table, not sure anything else can actually happen.
____

I still think this could be a bastard element and we do have two town Turins (one who has taken the name Turambar); if this is true we are going to lose one or the other and there's nothing we can do to change that, which I think would also qualify as pretty bastard. In response to Ludi, given this is a bastard game, I'm not surprised that there is a suicide cop role AND a miller role. It seems that this would be the exact situation a mod would expect or even desire to happen with both of those roles in play.

Also note: I am very much an overthinker and sometimes make simple things very complicated (which is one reason it takes me a long time to post). This day in particular has me banging my head on a brick wall so to speak, so I'm walking you all through my thought process to try to make sense of it. (And for those with bleeding eye syndrome, I tried to make it as reader-friendly as possible.)
____

Ludi: I considered the Lyncher/scum angles as well, but ultimately dismissed them as being too complex/convenient/convoluted to make sense.

Why I Don't Think He's a Lyncher

1) By name-claiming, MoI put himself in a precarious position as lyncher. The risk would have been an unnecessary one; town probably would have gone along with him just as cop.

2) Having a lyncher looking for Turin means that there are two third-parties with Turin as a target. Not impossible, but I'm not sold on it, either, since a lyncher succeeding would just be helping the SK achieve his wincon, and the lyncher would be under incredible pressure to keep the lynchee from being NK. And, since MoI had S&M as first on his night-vig list (Post 1384), again not likely.

3) The Seraphs have confirmed that they gave MoI the Suicide Cop role during N2; the timing of this is too convenient to support intricate conspiracy theories. He could have been aware of their identity all along, but that puts us back at point one; he could also have been a role-cop all along and the Suicide Cop was just a coincidence, but then again, that would mean another massive coincidence in the S&M's becoming miller and having a mason buddy with whom to confirm it. This becomes very complicated.

For people saying MoI is scum, why? Because I've considered this situation a lot and have basically discarded the idea he could be scum based on timing etc.:

Discarded MoI-Scum Scenarios

a) Scum-MoI is on team with rolecop. They cop S&M during N2 (because doing so on N1 would have just given them a Mason/Vig result) and get the result of Miller/Mason/Vig. Then Seraphs make MoI suicide cop, and he goes, "Oh Boy, LOOK AT THIS!" So instead of just claiming cop and a guilty, he hatches some elaborate plan to pre-emptively CC S&M since he knows who they are from the scum-RC and---yeah, getting complicated for ONE NIGHT's worth of actioning. It also opens him up for massive amounts of questioning and scrutiny which scum don't want.

b) Scum-MoI is on team and they don't have a role-cop. He just happens to get this ability and decides to use it on S&M, then fakes a guilty not knowing they are a Miller because this is worth getting himself lynched the next day? Not bloody likely.

c) This scenario is the only one that might be even the tiniest bit plausible given the time parameters: Scum-MoI is on a team with Ludi/ooba, who tells everyone that S&M is a miller. This leads to a plan of faking a guilty on them. Being turned into a "Suicide Cop" at the last minute is just a happy accident that helps MoI cement his claim and get the lynch. From here on out, MoI must confirm town or bus buddies, so it could be a scum gambit, but it 1) hinges on Ludi/ooba being one of his buddies and I don't see that as possible--MoI and ooba were clashing the way they did in Olympus when they were both town, and 2) given how early it is in the game, again, I don't think this is plausible because the longer someone has to keep an elaborate con up, the more chances there are to make a mistake.

So I'm sticking with the belief that both Turins are town, representing two different aspects of the character, unless someone can walk me through a scenario I haven't already considered and/or points out gaps in my thinking. I don't like MoI's "tone of voice" so to speak, especially today, but I don't see how his claim, especially at this point in the game, is scum-motivated. I could see him making some crazy fake claim later in the game, but having trouble with it on D3 with so few flips.


____

I'm not voting yet because I still want more discussion and I want some of my questions addressed. Aside from the conundrum we have to deal with today, KKB, Empking, and Espeonage are still my top three scum-picks. Aside from ALL of that, the tone of the game is becoming very negative and I would like to see it scaled back some.

[mockingjaye]

Herod: You're right; the only verification is that the seraphs unlocked MoI's latent ability, not that it is a suicide cop. Somehow I thought that was part of it. It still doesn't entirely make sense. If you're suggesting it's a fake claim, then a) did the seraphs tell him they would unlock his ability before they did it, so that he was able to plan out such an elaborate claim, or b) was it a spur of the moment super-gambit on his part no matter his role? Either way I still think there is too much weirdness about the timing. I believe both MoI and S&M are town at this point and this is part of what Plum meant by we should all feel a bit screwed over, because I kind of do right now.

My hope right now is that deactivating MoI's power also pulls the plug on his suicide, and I'm hoping we find out in the thread before any lynch occurs.

I also agree that Smargaret/Espeonage is a good lynch.

[mockingjaye]

Vote: Smarg

Hopefully MoI being deactivated means he won't suicide.

[mockingjaye]

This is a bit superfluous given that it's already been pointed out that Spy was hit twice, but I like having the visual, and now it's all in one nice and neat little space.

Spoiler:

SpyreX:

[Slain cruelly]

and [Tormented and killed] Night 3

(Amrun claimed)

WoW:

[slain cruelly]

Night 3

(Feysal claimed direct hit)

Gandalf: tormented and killed Night 2
Wraith:

slain cruelly

Night 2

(Feysal claimed)

Chronopie:

slain cruelly

Night 1

(Amrun claimed)

N2: Amrun claimed to have targeted Espeonage (1-Shot BP)
N1: Feysal targeted Furc; apparently no scum kill

So..."tormented and killed" is scum kill flavor; all of the kills/claims from 3rd parties add up now. Gandalf was a scum kill, and SpyreX got hit by scum and Amrun. I think this further clears Amrun. I want Feysal to claim his action before anyone else comments or speculates as to what happened last night. (Edit: He's done this; I agree with MoS re: what was said about Feysal's kill before he claimed.)

In response to Herod: I agree that knowing how Esp's recruit worked would make this easier, especially since there was no apparent scum kill on N1, though that could be explained by a few different things. I'm pretty sure there is nothing to be wrung from this speculation, though, at least until we decide to lay all our cards on the table.

In response to Kanye: No way? And when I flip town (because that's going to happen), what do you have?

1)

Go back and check those VCs again, because picking just one and not looking at where I really fell on that list isn't telling the whole story considering how quickly people were moving on and off your wagon

, and

2) I still hold that you're scum, and as such, YES way, it's totally believable that it got to Esp/Marg before you had scum on your wagon. What's not believable is that you are town with only one scum on, and I believe Ludi, S&M, and Gut are all town, and I know I am. If the rest of the town wants to lynch me to prove that, go right ahead. I spent two full days pushing your lynch because I believed in it and I still do, and if it takes my lynch to get you lynched, then go for it because I want nothing more in this game right now than to see you dead.

As for Esp/Marg's potential buddies, I pointed out a while ago that Esp took care to justify Kanye's vote on Gandalf but not his own and said I thought they were potential buddies (Post 550).

Regarding the numbers: high may be bad based on stats, but when I flip town, it means nothing. I stand by the belief that Kanye is scum, and that he should have been lynched on D1. I also stand by my choices on D3; I believe today's flips prove that Amrun is town, and the scum-recruiting dragon is dead. I'm glad I took my time making a decision yesterday, too.

Vote: Kanye

There are a few choices for his buddies: Emp having the ability to give roles makes me think he is probably town. For MoI to be scum, it would have to be with Ludi (see speculation yesterday about claim)--however, I still think it's far too convenient that he would have a latent power unlocked just as he was planning to claim a fake guilty and that that would precipitate his decision to claim suicide cop, too, and on top of that, I've got a town read on Ludi, so I still don't see that happening. I've had a nullish-town read on Gut and MoS and a nullish-scum read on Dekes, Elli, and Herod, but nothing so strong as my read on Kanye. Andy, Feysal, and Furc fall into another category altogether. Right now I would list Kanye and Elli as my top choices for a lynch today.

Regfan: Right. I've been bussing Kanye into the ground this whole time, and decided to bus Esp/Marg while I was at it just for fun. You totally got me.

My attacks on Kanye are attacks on someone I believe is scum. And filler? Where? When I was trying to sort out the crap that was yesterday? Say what you want about the frequency of my posts, but don't call that "filler." I was going through my thought processes in the thread in hopes I sharing them and getting reactions would help me make sense of them because yesterday was incredibly confusing. (And if Andy doesn't acknowledge the posts I made about MoI yesterday as being per my meta, then I have to seriously question his goals right now, as that is exactly the kind of situational walk-through he has seen me do several times now in different situations and different games. The closest I can come to verifying that if he won't is Katy's (my hydra partner in Olympus) comment about me in the last LOTR mini, where she pointed out that I do a lot of thinking behind the scenes and don't post everything I think about. Amrun should remember that, and Ludi, too, if he read that far in the game.)

P.S.: Andy, I was in your mini (albeit briefly) and the days/nights weren't at the same time; I also just joined another large game and have been catching up with it today, too, but it started when this game was in night and I was out of town from Wednesday morning through late Saturday anyway. So...I'm not getting that comment? Also, this day only just began, so I'm not

that

far behind.

Prev. Edit: Feysal was under strict orders not to kill either Turin last night. I get your point, but be fair about the constraints he was under; we didn't leave him alive to fulfill his wincon at all.

[mockingjaye]

There are a few choices for his buddies: Emp having the ability to give roles makes me think he is probably town. For MoI to be scum, it would have to be with Ludi (see speculation yesterday about claim)--however, I still think it's far too convenient that he would have a latent power unlocked just as he was planning to claim a fake guilty and that that would precipitate his decision to claim suicide cop, too, and on top of that, I've got a town read on Ludi, so I still don't see that happening. I've had a nullish-town read on Gut and MoS and a nullish-scum read on Dekes, Elli, and Herod, but nothing so strong as my read on Kanye. Andy, Feysal, and Furc fall into another category altogether. Right now I would list Kanye and Elli as my top choices for a lynch today.

MoS: I believe this paragraph pretty much states what I think of everyone right now. When I posted this, my list was, scum-->town, Kanye, Elli, Herod, Andy, Regfan, MoI, Emp, Ludi, Gut, MoS, Amrun, (Feysal/Furc in their own category). That list isn't based on how anyone relates to Kanye; the only person I saw linked to Kanye was Esp, and that was based on how he worked very hard to justify Kanye's vote on Gandalf. FYI: I am currently reevaluating this order--but Kanye is still at the top of the list.

Yes, you did ask Esp to be vigged quite a few times but asking for X or Y to be vigged is incredibly meaningless as the vig at the end of the day is going to end up shooting their own target and a recommendation from one specific player is likely to hold no weight whatsoever in their decision. I'd like an explanation as to why you never attempted to present a real case against Espeonage or comment on his ISO at all with the exception of pointing out a potential partner-tell with him and Kanye. If you really believed you nailed two scum (Espeonage and Kanye) wouldn't a skim or detailed read through of Espeonage and a presented case strengthen and solidify your scum-read on Kanye while providing ample information to lead a lynch?

I gave a vig list when we were ALL suggesting vig targets for Feysal. I didn't bring up more on Esp because the main things I saw was 1) his link to Kanye who I still think is scum and 2) the same things everyone else saw, which was the lurking; he wasn't really doing much of anything at all to comment on other than that--my whole "case" on him was what I said in 550 and lurking; Marg came in and her first post was pretty bad, but it was blown apart by MoS by the time I had even read it. There wasn't much else to say, and sense Esp had already been on my shortlist, I didn't have a problem voting for her.

As for leading anything, my strongest scum-read is and has been Kanye. I don't like the way his wagon fell apart on two different days, and I don't think that a town would only have one scum on the wagon. He also pulled a random VC from the many available--but he ignored all the ones that showed people jumping on and off his wagon--especially the ones who left him for another town wagon. (And if you really want to look at some interesting VCAs--look at how his wagons built and collapsed, and who ended up where when they did.) He had TWO whole days worth of wagons to choose from, too. I spent two days asking him questions and pointing out things I wanted him to clarify or discuss, and he either ignored me or gave vague answers (and of course, he spent a large portion of D2 in absentia anyway).

The reason I voted Marg on D3 was because D3 was occupied with a rather large debate, and the lynch literally came down to the wire. She was the only good wagon for me, because I was convinced that both Turins are town. One of the reasons I am late on the wagon is because I was waiting to see if we would find out anything about MoI's situation, which we didn't until Monday, and I was still trying to decide what to do if his power wasn't revoked. I didn't want to end the day with everything still so messed up, and withholding my vote was the only thing I could do to help keep that from happening. After MoI announced his power was revoked, I was fine voting Marg b/c I felt he was probably gong to be ok; before that, I wasn't as sure and I wasn't sure what I was going to do.

but you spent a great deal of the game focusing solely on voting, putting forward reasons and questioning Kanye while really not attempting to chime and comment deeply on any of the other ongoing wagons.

Voting, putting forward reasons, and questioning your suspects is pretty much the point, isn't it? As for the second half of this, I already had someone say this to me, and I addressed it in 1154. And give me a break about "not commenting deeply." I have "commented deeply" on my main suspect and pointed out what I thought was scummy about other people all along. I may not have had a whole LOT to say about them, but I offered my two cents and continued to focus on my primary suspect. And so what about the first post on D2? Did you read what the first thing I said in that post was? My cat had just died; it was pretty bad. I wasn't doing well at that point of that day, and that was about all I had to give just then.

In #1297 you show your first signs of doubt in this read where you admit that SpyreXs reasoning for Kanye being town is sound but then progress onward to continue pushing your read without taking a chance to step back and really rethink it.

Acknowledging someone else has a good point doesn't mean I was doubting my own; I didn't agree with his reasoning, just as he didn't agree with mine. I was showing that I was considering what he was saying, but I didn't agree. I thought A LOT about it before I posted it. Saying I didn't is just your conjecture--like the only way I was really thinking it through was if I ended up changing my mind? But I DID think it through, and I didn't change my mind.

Furthermore you never really commented on any of the other leading wagons and your biggest 'analysis' on an alternate player throughout the game was on my MoI isn't lyncher and is town which was relatively universally agreed upon at the time making the post read as an attempt to seem active while really contributing and presenting minimal.

I already addressed this; I commented when I thought it was necessary and kept my top 3-5 scum list updated as needed. And the issue about MoI was up in the air--he was not universally considered town, and I posted what I needed to post to establish my thoughts on the entire situation. It was basically a 1v1, and I thought they were both town, and I wanted to demonstrate why I thought they were BOTH town, and I was HOPING that would a) calm people down and b) spur some more level-headed discussion, or c) put my thoughts out there so I could see what other people thought, and maybe they could offer feedback if I was completely on the wrong track.


You say you need other people to talk to to sort out your thoughts? Well, I do too (again, this is something Andy can verify, if he will). I love being a mason or hydra because I process my thoughts by talking them out. Yesterday I was completely confused and had no one to talk to about my thoughts, so I figured putting it in the thread was my only option. Pretty much the ONLY person to respond and give me something to think about this post was Herod, who suggested that I wasn't considering a particular angle correctly, and I thought about what he said, and I decided I didn't agree with him and his comment only solidified my thoughts that I was right about both of them being town.

1. Continual AtE (when I flip Town what then, etc.)
2. Continual focus on Kayne and ignoring of changes of game-state.
3. General unhelpful ‘helpful’ posting ( a visual guide to the NKs that adds nothing to scum-hunting, discussion about Smarg’s possible recruiting that goes no-where ).
4. Sarcasm used as defense regarding ‘bussing’ possibilities as opposed to explanation about why the Smarg vote isn’t a bus.

1. It was a legitimate question. What does he have when I flip town? How legitimate is the rest of a VCA that turns up a false positive with the highest result? There isn't any emotion involved--it's an appeal to logic, maybe, but not emotion. What is plan B when plan A proves fail?

2. I still think Kanye is scum. I didn't ignore anything, as it seemed the "changed state" was everyone saying I was scum all of a sudden. I still stand by all of the things I've already said about Kanye from D1 and D2. I also addressed why I no longer think Empking is scum and offered my reads on everyone else, including a response to Andy.

3. You might find it unhelpful, but writing that out was helpful for me, and now it's a bookmark for me. I also pointed out it was superfluous to the discussion at hand but that I wanted it there anyway. The comment about Marg was directed to Herod, in response to his comment, and I pointed out the discussion was probably moot. That whole entire section--the list/comment was only a small fraction of the whole post.

4. Yeah, so? I was sarcastic. It wasn't just about Smarg--it was about the idea that Kanye was also my partner and I was bussing them both. Had it just been about Smarg, I probably wouldn't have been sarcastic, but I was responding to the idea that I am scum who has done nothing but bus two partners this entire game, which I find kind of asinine. Here's your explanation about Smarg, though: it's not a bus because I'm not scum, making it logistically impossible to bus anyone. I also addressed this in my comments to Regfan.

My thoughts – I really get the sense that the Espeonage commentary was distancing. Note that in the entire game she only directly comments on Esp’s being scummy early (ISO 3). The rest is listing him as possible scum (ISO 18) while not bothering to follow up on it at all or listing the BP player on a Feysal kill list.

Your sense here is wrong. I have wanted Kanye lynched more than anyone else this entire game and have stayed on him because of that.

___
I'm working out a VCA of my own to post before I'm lynched (or vigged), but here's a hint: my wagon is scum-driven, so that should help you narrow down your suspects tomorrow after all the flips are in.

[mockingjaye]

I'm going to start with reads/etc, then come back to the issues addressed to me (mainly by Regfan and MoI) since my last post. Please do not address me as if I am ignoring questions/comments from other posts at this point as I'm simply deferring them until my next post.

A couple of people asked about my listing of reads in the last post (which was ref. my first post of the day), so I will go on and answer that now since it's relevant to this one. The list I had made in my last post was clarifying for MoS what my reads were when I was making the first post of the day.

Herod: Prior to D3 My top five was basically Kanye, Espeonage, Empking, and a shifting bottom two, including Feysal (pre-claim) and S&M at different points. On D3, I still held the top three reads, at least until Emp explained he gave Gandalf his role. (If you go back you can clearly see me asking Emp about it.) Today, Kanye is still my top scum-read, and between that and the solid town reads I have, I'm reevaluating my list. I don't usually share a complete list of suspects early in the game, but that doesn't mean I'm not thinking about them. Usually, and especially early in the game, I am comfortable listing 3-5 at a time, updating that list as the game progresses.

Staying on Kanye this whole time may not have been the right thing to do as town, but I still stand by my read on him and think he should be lynched. Nacho, as for my "late" vote on Marg, the first time I was even able to mention her after her first post I agreed with her lynch, but I was holding off voting because I was waiting to hear the stuff about MoI. The reason my vote-post was so short was because I was getting ready to go out of town and didn't actually have a lot of time, and because I had suspected that slot since D1 and had affirmed that in the post immediately prior to that one, so I didn't figure much more needed to be said.

___

1. If you are town, go back and read Espeonage's ISO, and look at his interactions with Kanye. Especially the time when he says something about his vote on Kanye finally being serious--like when it looked like Kanye was the lynch, right before Feysal managed to shift everyone onto Peregrine. Regfan--you have mentioned that I should have been more proactive in my case about Espeonage. Well, a lot of my feelings about him were connected with Kanye flipping scum, so I wanted Kanye dead first. Since Esp/Marg flipped scum, those feelings are already cemented. In Esp's ISO, he clearly tries to justify Kanye's actions for a period, warns him away from Gandalf, and finally busses him. I absolutely feel that they are on the same team, and if I had the power to make Kanye dead, I would.

2. If you are town, go back and look at the end of the day wagon on Kanye/Vitamin. With six votes on Kanye, three are confirmed to everyone, and four are confirmed to at least three of us (me, Andy, Amrun). I'm reading Amrun as town, so the only "iffy" slot I see on that wagon is Andy's.

If Kanye is town, why would there only be one potential mafia-scum on his wagon? (And I'm speaking from my perspective, which will be verified when I flip town.) Mind you, this is the

second

end-of-day that saw Kanye vs. Flipped Town, and given the apparent willingness of people to actually vote for Kanye, I don't see why scum wouldn't take glorious advantage of a Kanye mislynch rather than advance yet another counter-wagon late in the day.

3. I had a feeling that if Nacho came in the game and attacked me, he is town. This is because if he were scum, I have a feeling he would want to distance himself from my mislynch given the suspicion that is already surrounding his slot. Therefore, I have moved him into my town reads. Prior to this, I had moved him into my top five scum list based on Elli's play.

4. Regfan is probably scum. In his discussions with me, he is very subtly twisting the meanings of things I've said in his questions when it should actually be quite obvious what I meant. I will address more of these points directly in my next post. I had a very iffy read on Dekes, much like I had in

Olympus

, but nothing concrete. More on Regfan in my next post, when I reply to him directly.

5. I said in my last post that I thought my wagon was scum driven (hello, Kanye and Regfan, yes I WAS talking about you), but there is no way that everyone in that first group of four would be scum, and if there are two scum on the wagon, then the one or two left would probably split themselves between a variety of other options, i.e., tacitly defending me as town. Therefore, I'm thinking

Herod

is scum. And guess what, way back in his second post he says this:

Kanyek, maybe? I don't have a big scum read on him, but I'd be willing to sheep onto a wagon.

Not sure about Espeonage. I think he's just playing poorly.

His vig list in his ISO 18 is also a lovely thing. (I wouldn't have even noticed this at all if Ludi hadn't made it a point against me, but here Herod has Esp on that list, after 2 town--and before Esp's one-shot BP had been taken by Amrun's vig attmept on N2.)

6. Andy, <3. But, your post about me not posting here and posting elsewhere made me sad. Especially after I said a couple of times in my next posts that you could verify certain things about me but you didn't comment on them and then just said I was clearly town. That makes me think you are scum because you backed away from the conversation entirely.

So, my list is as of right now: Kanye, Regfan, Herod, and Andy.

[mockingjaye]

Regfan:

Yes, it is the point of the game. But focusing solely on one target even if it's your strongest suspect isn't the aim of the game at all.

Secondly you attempted to push or question Espeonage deeper after presenting a very valid point on why he's scummy or suspicious in #550

yet felt completely happy to continue to pester Kanye.

I have been focused on my biggest scumread while sharing other reads. For the bolded part, do you mean I

didn't

attempt to push or question Esp further? Because if you did, you forgot a word. If you didn't forget a word, then . And I did ask Esp things, he just wouldn't answer them. I asked a lot of questions on D1 and D2, and if they weren't outright ignored, they were answered very vaguely. When I did ask him something, Esp wouldn't respond to me anymore than Kanye would, if you go back and look. And yes I was completely happy to "pester Kanye" because he was and is my top scum read. I figured we could come back to Esp after we got Kanye lynched. I also thought Kanye might have a scum-PR based on how his wagons were breaking up and how defensive people have been about him.

Also, you say "pester Kanye" like it's a bad thing. If you have a strong scum read on someone, and vote for them, and question them, and they refuse to answer you, do you back off and say you're being too hard on them? There seems to be an undercurrent of this sentiment that I'm picking on poor Kanye in your word choice here. I'm not "pestering" him. I think he's scum, and I've tried very hard to get him lynched during this game. I don't always get such a strong read on people, but when I do, I pursue it until satisfied. He dodged my questions and comments for two days, and today, he's ready to lynch me and get me out of the game. Gee, I wonder why?

You showed acknowledgement, understanding and to a degree agreement with his reasoning, you presented no real counter other than 'But maybe scum thought X instead' and stuck with your previous reasoning and logic. I can understand still suspecting Kanye after it and not fully agreeing with the conclusions that SpyreX was pushing but what I don't understand is that how presentation of his logical counter points didn't weaken your scum-read at all and you showed no real sign of scumhunting heavily elsewhere afterwards which makes your whole 'consideration period' seem non-existent.

It's interesting how you're interpreting this passage and how you keep coming back to it as if it's the Rosetta Stone. It's pretty apparent what I mean in this passage, and this is what I was talking about in the last post I made.

Basically, SpyreX presented an argument. I thought about it, saw his points, questioned my own argument, and came to the conclusion that while I believed his argument was made in sincerity, it was also sincerely wrong; I felt it was based on one point of "what if," and I had an equally valid counter "what if" and I stuck with that. I DON'T HAVE TO CHANGE MY MIND just because I considered someone else's argument. It didn't weaken my read because it wandered down a long path of WIFOM and counter-WIFOM and the points I have on Kanye were separate from that. How can you not understand unless you're being deliberately obtuse? As for the consideration period being non-existent, um, I considered in my head. I didn't walk all the way through it in the thread. Other than that, Kanye was my top read, and it was (and is) my goal to get him lynched, or at the very least, vigged.

I disagree, MoI really wasn't 'heavily suspected' or even 'suspected' by any means and although you may have wanted to calm people down and spur discussion as well as reaffirm your thoughts I don't see how focusing on this situation was a relevant use of your time especially with deadline winding down.

First of all: you put "heavily suspected" in quotation marks like I said it--I didn't. I just said MoI wasn't universally considered town at that point. And, if you read the comments made, he wasn't.

Everyone should have questioned their reads on both him and Amrun on D3 after they both claimed the same role.

And how was it not relevant? In every post, MoI was demanding an Amrun lynch; there was a low rumbling of "I'm not saying MoI is scum but he might be" going on, and it was pretty much all anyone was talking about.

WTF do you mean it wasn't a relevant use of time?

I was deciding whom I believed, and as it happens, I believed them both. I wanted everyone to shut up and stop finger-pointing for five minutes and consider that they could both be telling the truth; scum thrive in confusion, and yesterday was confusing.

You're claiming to have mega-strong town-reads on MoI and Ludi while also claiming to have a mega-strong scum-read on Kanye so your whole 'my wagon is scum driven' is either 1) You subtly declaring suspicion towards me or 2) You just finding another way of saying you suspect Kanye.

1. "Mega-strong" is your terminology, not mine, at least in regards to town reads. Obviously it's adequate to describe my Kanye read. 2. D4 has begun with a call for my lynch. I know I'm town, even no one else does, so I am looking at people calling for said lynch. Not all of them are town. The chances of there being only town on my wagon, even at this point, are very slim, and obviously I'm putting Kanye on the top of the list, and you're next. If YOU'RE town, you should look to the other three and question your reads--because at least one of them isn't town. I am also looking at people staying off the wagon. At any rate, I addressed this in my previous post about reads. If you're town, what direction are you going to take when I flip town?

What would you do if you were in my position and knew you were town? You would look at who is pushing your lynch/vig as well, wouldn't you? Do you honestly think that of the four people who were on my wagon when I first posted this, all of them are town? (Kanye, you, Ludi, MoI)

By the way, when you were "up to page 20," these were your reads:

Though page 20 and the amount of flavor and setup speculation is abysmal. From what I've read I'm leaning heavily towards Andrius, Furcolow, MoI and Ludi being town with weaker town-reads on MoS, Eli and to a degree Gut. I'd say that Mockingjaye and LordChronos are likely scum as well.

Kanye was a significant wagon at the time, and you have nothing to say about him at that point at all. In fact, it isn't until you're at about page 53 of your read-through that you do mention him, at which time your say he's scum. Why, exactly, is he scum at that point and nothing before?

[mockingjaye]

Nacho:

So, everyone is town except for me, and maybe Herod who is defending me, and maybe Andy but not really? And Kanye must be town just because Spy thought so? And you have no problem with the fact that he parked his vote on a third party/unknown (who has now flipped town) for pretty much all of D1, or of the fact that he made up some hogwash about wanting to lynch Gandalf but not believing that there were any scum on his wagon but were instead all on the sidelines plotting to accuse people on the wagon--and

yet when asked to provide reads of those people, had none, and still maintained that Gandalf was the best lynch

?

And his defensive statement in response to Ludi--the one where he (Kanye) said "

you can say i was trying to do it for town cred later on but its a bit early for that

," indicating he was already worried about having his motives questioned? That doesn't bother you at all? And how, after a full week and a half of gameplay, 27 pages, and 650 posts, the ONLY person he found worhty of lynching was someone who didn't even have a role yet, and the BEST he could do in the way of offering an opinion about where scum might be was wagon-WIFOM which didn't even include names? How does this strike you as being anything other than trying to look like a "pretty solid townie" when he was, in actuality, doing nothing at all?

The only time he offered reads at all was when I (or someone else, but I'm going with mine for brevity) gave him a list of people to discuss, and this is what he said:

ive already stated my position on feysal and spy (town and not scum.) andrius i am wary of but i would rather see gandalf lynched before him. i cannot read empking without association tells. im feeling town from moi. null on espeonage.

When I approached him from a different angle, and asked about Feysal's wagon, he didn't even respond. On D2, he first states he thinks Vitamin R is town, then when MoI pushes him about analyzing the wagon, he says he could "see him being scum based on the wagon" but doesn't see anything in his ISO that says scum...and then, not surprisingly, hops on the Vitamin R wagon. He did almost the exact same thing on D1, when he had no scum reads but suddenly found Pere a worthy lynch target. So, he skates by D1 having no reads except for Gandalf, then votes for town-Pere; does the same exact thing on D2, and on D3, makes a list or two of town vs. scum reads and votes smarg late in the day, and he's super town?

Herod:

Okay, I see your point about my logic with Nacho. The reason you're on my list, though, is because of the people who weren't actively voting me, you were the only one actively defending me, and I'm paranoid right now. I'm going to flip town, so I am looking at how people are reacting to me, and it makes sense to me that at least one scum is staying as far away from the mislynch as possible.

Also, back to this question: "What happens when Kanyek flips town?"
Then I was obviously wrong about him? I would then look very hard at those still alive who were happy to wagon him and then hop off his wagon, especially on both D1 and D2. I would look very hard at anyone who has expressed an interest in voting him but hasn't, or who has and then had a change of heart. Finally, I would look at whoever ardently defended him. Most likely there will be scum and town amongst each of those three lists, but it would be easier to group suspects that way and then work from there. It would be a start, anyway.

MoI (re: 2065)

1. Okay, so I had a different understanding of what AtE is, as I thought it was actually related to appealing to emotion, not logic; and I still think the question is a logical one. I'm not asking you for mercy based on feelings; I'm asking people to think based on logic. I am town; I know I'm town, and I'm fine with getting flipped right now because then everyone will know I'm town, but I want to put everything I'm thinking on the table before I do leave the game, and I'm bringing these things up apurpose to try to get people to think ahead.

2. As for your VCA comments, okay, but I still don't know what all the numbers mean. (I'm not a math person, or a stats person, at all.) What I do know is that in my case, you're getting a false positive. I am not ignoring your other people so much as I am responding to you about myself; they will have to speak for themselves.

3. About Kanye. I'm back to him today, but on D3, I spent most of the day trying to figure out the mess between you and Amrun. And I didn't just lock my suspicions on him the whole time. If anyone is even bothering to read the things I said on D1 or D2, I commented on Emp, Esp, S&M, Pere, and Feysal; I offered my two cents about Gandalf and Andrius and your interactions with the seraphs; I questioned people when I had questions and responded to everyone who wanted me to answer for something. I didn't get around to commenting on everyone, but I haven't had something worth saying about everyone, either.

Can you really go back and look at my questions and not see that I'm in earnest? I know I mentioned Kanye a lot and kept my vote on him, but I was also actively discussing the rest of the game, too, and I'm kind of frustrated that I'm being painted as having commented on

only

him for two days while ignoring everything else, because that isn't the truth at all. I also get that one of the two points in the case on me is that I had Esp/Marg on my list and never moved them to the top, but as I've said in other posts, I had a stronger read on Kanye, and my read on Esp was majorly linked to Kanye's flip. As for my comments about Esp only being "early," I questioned him up until the end of D1, which he ignored, and then on D2, brought up that I still wanted him to answer my questions, but was also still ignored. And, ultimately, I wasn't opposed to lynching Esp/Marg, but I preferred a Kanye lynch and therefore kept pushing it. The reason I was late on the Marg wagon was because I was waiting to hear from you about your ability and didn't want the day to end before we at least had some idea if you would still have to suicide or not.

4. I began D4 with Kanye for two reasons: A) I still think he's scum, and B) My reaction to his vote for me was "I bet you do want me gone." I don't always get a super-strong read on people; in fact, it's pretty rare, but I have one this time and he hasn't done anything to make me change my mind.

5. You clearly have MoS and me pegged as scum and ask Amrun to look at our interactions with Esp/Marg. Have you looked at mine and MoS's interactions?

---
So my list is still KKB, Regfan, Andy, and Herod, and for the record, I've reconsidered the point I made about Nacho being town and think Herod has a decent point, and that combined with Nacho's pseudo-reads that find no one but me and Herod scummy is enough to put him back on my radar.

[mockingjaye]

Nacho: Looking forward to the IOU, since when I read your list of reads, you pretty much said you thought everyone was town except for me and Herod, and maybe Andy, but you weren't so sure about him.

Regfan:

1.
Post 550/ISO 3—When I first pointed out what I saw about Esp.
Post 822/ISO 9—One question, repeated in 1054/ISO 11

Okay, you’re right. I thought I had questioned him a few more times rather than just mentioned him, but I hadn’t. I remember I was going somewhere with the question, because he said it in relation to moving his vote to Pere’s wagon, and I thought he was just putting on a show about doing so. Because he was lurking, I didn’t get to follow up with where I was going with him. He never responded to things I said about him or even acknowledged me, so I wasn’t able to.

2.
I’m going to say this part one more time. Understanding someone else’s argument doesn’t mean I have to believe my own is weaker. I spent a good deal of time thinking through that entire thing, mainly because I didn’t see where SpyreX was coming from at first, but even when I did work through it, and saw his PoV, I still thought his argument hinged too much on WIFOM and that I was basing my reads on all of Kanye’s posting on D1 and D2 which I believe is very scummy. I then acknowledged Spy’s argument and rejected it in favor of my own. I don’t care if you think it was too weak—the point is, I DIDN’T. It was what I kept coming back to, and what I couldn’t shake out of my head, and thus why I rejected the counter. (And in regards to the whole argument thing, I’m going to give you a concrete real world example of why you’re wrong: I have had many discussions with a friend who has a different belief system than mine own. Just because I understand what he’s saying doesn’t mean I have to stop believing what I believe or that I have to develop a sense of uncertainty about it. Your statement here is fallacious on all sorts of levels, and I think you’re just trying to use it to fluff up your case against me.)

3.

I didn’t say people were calling for his lynch—I said he wasn’t universally considered town.

There is a BIG difference, and once again, you're phrasing your questions/comments to/about me in such as way to make it look like I said or meant something I didn't. I would be HAPPY to point out to you how many people voiced uncertainty over MoI’s alignment. In addition to my own speculation, here are what others said about MoI’s alignment on D3 (which you claim to have read but didn't see anything of the sort):

Amrun—Post 1481—Says MoI most likely scum
Dekes—Post 1480—Asked Seraphs to confirm MoI-Turin
Ooba—1503—Suggests alterna-lynch to test MoI’s claim
Amrun—1508—Says she doesn’t know how ANYONE can believe MoI above her and that his claim doesn’t even make sense for Turin
Herod: 1516—Could see MoI as a lyncher
Feysal: 1532—says MoI is fair game if he doesn’t die if we don’t lynch S&M
Amrun 1537—Asks Seraphs if they can confirm MoI’S name
Amrun 1541—Says she thinks MoI is scum b/c she doesn’t think they are both Turin
Dekes 1557—Doesn’t really want to believe there are two Turins
Ludi 1640—Thinks MoI is a lyncher
Wisp: 1646—Thinks MoI could be a lyncher
MoS 1656—Suggests AGM-scum seraph could have changed MoI’s alignment when he “de-neighborized” him as an explanation for the twists of D3
Ludi: 1666—“It is growing on me that MoI is some scum or third-party lyncher” and “has no idea what [alignment] MoI is.”
Herod: 1695—Doesn’t think MoI is scum, but could be third-party lyncher or cult

4.
If you find wagon analysis trivial, then you should look at why several other people are wanting to lynch me—for staying on Kanye and then “bussing” Marg (which I didn’t). By the way, to all those people: the day didn’t end with my vote on her, and the only one who had any comment about me after the vote was Ludi, who had me on his vig list after that. Why didn’t someone attack me then instead of waiting until after Kanye brought up his “evidence” that Esp couldn’t have been the first scum on his wagon, so I had to be the only other possibility.

5.
It’s not illogical for me to think scum are pushing a mislynch. Not illogical at all. I get why town might have misread me, and I certainly don't think all of the people who want me dead are scum. That doesn’t change the fact that scum actually know I’m town, and that scum are going to happily seize an opportunity for an easy mislynch, and before they succeed, I am going to say exactly what I think about who they are.

6.
Why don’t you go reread that section and see what you come up with, then.

[mockingjaye]

Gut: Thank you. I haven't ever known how to do that.

From my last post: links to posts:

1.
Post 550, Post 822

Also in regards to something I said to MoI in Post 2140 (point 3), I talked about quite a few people and questioned quite a few people on D1 and D2. Granted my focus was on Kanye, but I was actively engaged in the game and with other players, which is something that everyone has left out when saying I've only talked about Kanye. MoS said a while back that my posts make his eyes bleed, and Ludi said he read my ISO with "ctrl F Kanye," so I want to know if anyone has even bothered to read anything I've said, or if you're all just looking at votes or for what I said about you personally in deciding that I'm scum tunneling on Kanye/bussing Esp or whatever, because if that's what you're doing, you're missing a whole lot.


3.
Post 1481, Post 1487, Post 1503, Post 1508, Post 1516, Post 1532, Post 1537, Post 1541, Post 1557,Post 1640, Post 1646, Post 1656, Post 1666, Post 1695


Also, in regards to my second point from my last post:

Regfan has been bringing up this quote and has been working very hard to make it a key point against me. He is basically saying that he thinks that by admitting I understand Spy's argument, I should be somewhat less convinced of my own. I disagree, and I think Regfan is trying to make something out of this that just isn't there to try to justify a scum read on me. The underlined part is my reasoning as to why I disagree with Spy; Regfan is pretty much saying I am just making it up because it's too weak to be true. The fact is, that's my direct counter to Spy's argument, but the second paragraph is a list of some of the reasons I feel that my conclusion here is a valid one.

Post 1297 Okay, so in writing out my argument about why I disagree with SpyreX’s point about Kanye and the D1 wagons that I wrote myself into understanding if not completely agreeing with his argument. I have been reading a lot of today’s reactions to Kanye as being “Save Kanye” and thinking he might be a scum PR, but that wouldn’t explain why scum wouldn’t work harder on a Feysal lynch yesterday; they probably could have pushed it through. It definitely makes sense,

but I still also think it makes lots of sense that he is scum and the third-party Feysal lynch didn’t push through because of people’s commitments to stances early in the game and that Pere offered them a safety net to eschew all obligations to either wagon

. So yes, it's a viable reasoning, but it's also still conjecture, and I'm not convinced enough to move my vote.

The fact that the wagon is again stalled on Kanye is still bothering me, and I also have very negative feelings about how Kanye has played, and how he has interacted with me in particular, because I think I gave him lots of opportunities to change my mind in D1 and he didn’t even try, and his whole “either both or neither” comment today really bothers me, as does his timing and reactive rather than proactive play. I think it’s equally logical that he is scum based on these things and the fact that a lot of the defense (self and otherwise) of Kanye is tied up in speculation of other possibilities rather than in more concrete evidences. I'm sticking with my read here.

[mockingjaye]

Regfan, the ONE thing I agree with you about is that this is a time waster, and the insults you are peppering your comments with are completely uncalled for, so I don't particularly WANT to talk to you anymore, either.

1. I wasn't comparing my belief in the game to a moral/religious belief; I was giving you a

real world

example of why saying that I need to abandon a belief just because I understand someone else's belief is fallacious and that your argument is based on a fallacy.

I don't care if it is a game or not; within the parameters of this game, I think Kanye is scum. I have reasons that I think this. I thought about Spy's reasons that he didn't think this. I still think I'm right. Why is this so difficult for you to accept? Would you say that Spy had to change his mind if he acknowledged my argument and yet held firmly that he was right and I was wrong? (OH WAIT. HE DID. Way back when I first made it. Post 371) No. You're talking like this to me because you think you can get away with it.

For the record, it ISN'T JUST THE WAGONS STALLING. Geez, go back and read all the things I've said about him. You're the one who is now trying to stick my whole argument about Kanye onto the wagon thing. I already told you I thought Spy's reasoning was tied up in WIFOM, and that I took my own counter-WIFOM and all of the reasons I had in addition to that and my mind wasn't changed.

By the way, you are spending an inordinate amount of time trying to turn my refusal to change my mind into something sinister in regards to someone you claim to have a scumread on, too.

2. You are the one who tried to turn my original comment that MoI wasn't universally considered town into me saying that he was a lynch candidate. YOU are the one who asked for a list of people expressing that they were unsure as to his alignment. I answered your question and gave you that list. I also said I was on the list, too. And here again, you're implying that I said people wanted to lynch him, and I DIDN'T. I said he wasn't universally considered town, and HE WASN'T. Lyncher, Third-Party, Cult...none of those things are town.

YOU'RE the one making this into a mountain out of a nothing. My original statement was that there was a lot of confusion flying about on D3, and I WAS confused, and I was trying to work out MY thoughts, and I thought by sharing them in thread that MAYBE I could help direct a more logical conversation that the one that was happening. I wasn't "defending" anyone, either. I was sowing how I got to the place that I thought they were both town and asking for thoughts and feedback to my thoughts in case I was just completely off-base. Feysel responded to my post; he was the ONLY one who responded to my confusion, and he admitted he was confused, too, so SOMEONE got that was my intention.

3. Out of fourteen people left alive, and knowing two of them are definitely third party, and no less than Ludi, MoI, Gut, Kanye, MoS, You, Amrun, and Nacho calling me scum or saying I'm a good vote, then yes, I think it's a logical conclusion that scum are seizing a chance to get a mislynch. And gee, my number one scumread the entire game is now calling for my lynch based on ONE vote count that doesn't even demonstrate how many people were originally on his wagon and hopped off between the time I joined and the time the day ended. Yes, I think he's scum. I also think that your going round and round and deliberately misunderstanding almost everything I say is also scummy, and you are ALSO on my wagon.

I don't even know what your goal is with me except to try to paint me as being an illogical moron by deliberately misunderstanding or misrepresenting almost everything I say, so I don't even know how to respond to you anymore because you're not even trying to understand what I'm saying, and it's really very clear.

[mockingjaye]

Before I get into Reg's last post directed at me, and before anyone hammers, I'm giving my final thoughts in case I'm vigged tonight.

I'm Turgon, by the way, VT, and I crumbed my character in my first posts of D1 and D2 hoping someone would pick up the hint and think Turgon might be a PR given that he is a king, and then I tried in two other posts to hint at maybe having an investigative or protective role (investigative--re: Gandalf/D1, when I said he shouldn't be a D1 lynch and I'd prefer to wait at least one day anyway; protective--re: MoI/D3 when I contradicted Feysal and said there might be some way to make sure MoI lived through the night and disagreed that we should just lynch elsewhere and let the chips fall where they may). Take that for what you will.

_____

I am still standing by my Kanye read. I think I've made myself perfectly clear about that, and I have stated why several times, and the wagons falling apart are only part of it. He kept his vote on Gandalf too long (and for those of you complaining that I am tunneling and don't know how to back off gracefully, if you are really concerned about that as a scum tell, go back and look at Kanye's stance on Gandalf), and he refused to list any other suspects, or to question anyone else, only to hop on town wagons at the last minute of both D1 and D2. There is also the connection to Esp, and several other things listed in these posts: Post 357, Post 652, and Post 1297. I've left out links to posts where I am just saying I want him lynched, or where I am asking him questions or reminding him I have asked him questions that he hasn't answered yet.

Here is the blurb about Esp when I decided they were connected:

Regarding Espeonage, I don't like the early Furc vote in a post where he talks about several other people and not Furc himself; he also doesn't mention Furc in preceding or subsequent posts. He then votes Gandalf instead despite claiming that he didn't think Gandalf was scum a few posts before that; the only reason for the change was that Furc was "entertaining" and "could be the day two lynch" instead. He then sets about justifying Kanye's vote on Gandalf but not his own.

(again with belated partial credit to Furc who had a similar read)

If I'm wrong about Kanye, I would suggest looking at people who have defended him, or said they would vote him but haven't.

I also think it's pretty telling that Kanye isn't actually doing this for himself

, and that his sole comment against me is that Esp couldn't have been the first scum on his wagon, and he has town reads on everyone but me, but has no reasons or justifications for any reads at all other than that. I really just think he's scum and he's tired of me saying it.

____

I think Regfan is also scum because he HAS been twisting what I say all day, and while he claims to have a scum read on Kanye, he says he doesn't understand my scum read on him.

Nacho: What Herod just said. I don't care that you have town reads, but your list pretty much has everyone but the two 3rd parties, Herod, and me listed as town.

Finally: I think I know why the masons are only reasonably sure of their alignment, and that's because there was a recruiter in play, and therefore their alignment could change at any time, so if I would consider them nothing more than neighbors at this time.

I'm not sure about my reads on anyone outside of Kanye and Regfan. I don't like that Andy has vanished; I don't like Nacho's reads, but I am still not sold that he is scum. I am also still paranoid about Herod's defense of me.

Finally, I'm

super-paranoid

about Ludi and MoI actually being recruited scum who actually did try set up Amrun yesterday (as I mentioned yesterday in Post 1709) in hopes they could ride out the wave until the end based on that and didn't count on the Seraphs being able to confirm anyone. The timing still doesn't quite make sense to me for that, though. I am going to look back through all of that and try to reread MoI and Ludi tonight and try to get a grip on that.

(Prev. Edit, okay, so I missed the hammer.)

[mockingjaye]

Regfan, I don't want to talk to you anymore, either, but I WILL clarify when you say things to me and about me that I believe are false or deliberately twisted.

1. What I was saying is that you are wrong about assuming someone has to change their mind based on the fact that they understand someone else's argument. I made an analogy since you weren't acknowledging that you understood what I meant-- I was not saying that personal beliefs are equivalent to game beliefs. Analogies are basically A:B as 1:2; the pairs don't have to be equivalent in value, they just have to show the same relationship value, and your comments about my example being a "complete and utter joke" indicate you think I was saying A:1 as B:2, when I'm not saying that at all. And I don't have to change my mind just because someone else made a good point. I considered it and rejected it in favor of my own argument while acknowledging that I thought the other argument was valid, just incorrect. You know, as in a syllogism?

2. You're saying it was filler, but I'm saying it's not. You picked one thing out of my response to you about it not being filler, that I said MoI wasn't universally considered town, and turned that into something it isn't. You've implied that I was "defending" him yesterday and that I was implying he was in danger of being lynched, and I wasn't. You demanded a list of people saying they didn't necessarily think MoI was town, and when I gave it to you you called it horseshit.

Yesterday's posts were to help me get my balance, and they were intended to be helpful for others trying to get theirs. You have the luxury of having missed all that and not having to sort through the confusion, but I didn't, and I didn't post anything just to "appear active" at all, and my problem with you saying that they are filler is that in my eyes, they are very clearly written and my intent in them is very obvious, and you just don't seem to even be reading them because

all you're throwing back at me are comments about my explanations, not about the content of those posts themselves.

3. Yeah, I'm under no delusion that I'm important here. I'm just saying I understand that I gave scum an easy ML target by focusing strongly on Kanye and not ever pushing Esp/Marg. I don't obviously don't think everyone who thinks I'm scummy is scum, but I do think that Kanye is, and I think he probably does really want me gone because I have been focused on him so much and I just won't let it go. He even said in a post today that he really wants me gone. (He also said he has a case, which he hasn't posted yet.)

As to my stance on Kanye: I've been so clear about it all along. Even if you disagree with me, you shouldn't be confused by it. I'm also not making huge leaps in logic about scum being on my wagon or you misrepping me considering that a) the first person to vote for me was my number one scum read, and b) you feign misunderstanding about everything I say, and when I try to explain it, you act like I'm speaking Klingon or something. One thing I know I am quite capable of doing is making myself clear via the written word, so you consistently misunderstanding me doesn't make sense to me. You may not BELIEVE me or that you don't agree with me, but don't say you don't understand me.

(Though I think the reason you keep claiming to "misunderstand" me is because of this: One of your major points against me is that you don't understand why I am not swayed by Spy's argument, even though I "understand it." So you are forced to say you don't understand me, because if you admit to understanding me, then by your own logic, you will have to also be swayed out of your own argument, at least as much as you have demanded that of me. That's why you keep saying you don't understand me rather than saying you don't believe me or that you don't agree with me.)

[mockingjaye]

Posts ref. my claim: Post 291 (First line); Post 822 (First line); Post 471 (Last paragraph); Post 1618 (First paragraph after list A-E)

[mockingjaye]

All I have left is my flip; I've put everything else I have out there. The claim couldn't hurt anymore than anything else that's already out there, and I have a reason for doing it that I won't explain until later if anyone still wants to comment on it in the future.

[mockingjaye]

I haven't even thought about him in a while. I'll try to read him again before the thread is locked but I am working on another game right now, too. Why is he your #1 defender-suspect? Also, what do you think of Regfan?

[mockingjaye]

As for MoI, until I knew how Amrun became a miller there was the possibility that MoI or a hypothetical scum partner had millerized Amrun, and he was false claiming an investigation to push a mislynch. That possibility has been ruled out now. If MoI was scum, then the scum would need to possess some means of finding out that Amrun was a miller, and we don't know of any. That makes MoI more likely to be town, even if the dual Túrin claims continue to weird me out.

Except that scum had a recruiter, and at least two opportunities to recruit, which is why I'm paranoid that both MoI and Ooba were recruited and cooked up the plan to get Amrun lynched and let MoI get by with proclaiming innocents or maybe bussing someone at least once later on (because at the time, Marg was still alive and would have lived one more night if you hadn't started the counter-wagon).

However, besides the timing of all of this, another doubt I have about this idea is that MoI name-claimed, and if he and Ludi were plotting something, surely he wouldn't have done that given that Amrun's flip would have opened up a lot of questions. The fact that he claimed Turin Turambar and she specifically stated that she is just Turin is also a good point in MoI's court because making a pre-emptive name-CC on a miller as scum would require a lot of brass, and while I'm sure MoI is capable of coming up with something as crazy as the same first name/separate surname thing, it's the kind of detail that would most likely be overlooked and would have precipitated having Ludi clarify with Amrun that she had no surname in her PM, and by the by--it's so freaking far-fetched. So yeah, I think I have talked myself out of that scenario. Thank you, Feysal, for setting my thoughts back in motion there because I was getting overwhelmed with paranoia.


Reg: I see what you're saying in 2207, and to some extent that's perhaps a bit true of you, but my read on Kanye goes much further back than that. I can't explain the strength in the read; I do NOT get reads this strong very often, but I've been right 2/3 times when I have. (And I'm not able to point you to those because I had them a while back on my other account, which I changed and am keeping private for personal reasons, which isn't helpful at all, I know.)

Kanye: I have been focused on the other game and actually fell asleep working on it, so I haven't had the chance to review MoS, and I'm going to bed now and I'm not sure when I will be back online. I'm a little taken aback by you asking me anything at all to be honest.

[mockingjaye]

MoI: Because I am frustrated. I know why people suspect me, and I know scum are exploiting that to some degree. I'm also not a confrontational person, and having so many people attack me at once was overwhelming and increased my frustration, and I was pretty sure I was doomed anyway, and I reacted emotionally, not logically. (For the record, I'm not really much of a logical player; I'm an extremely emotional one--I have to write my way through emotional reactions sometimes to get to the logic--my last post being a prime example of that, but I usually do all of that outside the game itself.)

I'm not "fine" with being lynched/vigged in the sense that I "want" to be either, but at this point, given my play, if I'm just a distraction, then having me flipped could really help narrow things down more. No one was believing anything I said, and I was thinking ahead that it would be terrible to have me in LYLO for that reason. I don't trust the people now defending me, and I don't trust the people attacking me, but I know

some

of you are town and can figure things out, and given that D1 and D2 were clouded by a) lots of third-party spec, b) Feysal's agenda which helped derail a Kanye wagon, and c) so many people in general, and that D3 was so completely atypical all-around, today is really the first day I think isn't weird in some way. My flip would give concrete evidence of alignment, and given the amount of reactions to me today, would give some good leads based on how people have interacted with me. (My only real concern in that is that I am hideously wrong about Kanye, and that he gets ML after me. Other than that, I think it could be a useful flip.)

As for the breadcrumbs, no, I haven't ever used them before. Katy and I dropped a small one in Olympus which everyone said was dubious, and so I thought I would try it here given that I am VT, and doing so might pay off in a scum NK. It was an experiment.

____

I've put to bed my conspiracy theory re: Ludi/MoI, BUT not the idea that either of them could have been recruited at some point. I just wanted to clarify that from the last post, and I still think masons should be regarded as neighbors at this point, too.

[mockingjaye]

I haven't had a chance to read anything at all since last week; we had a big and eventful Thanksgiving holiday and I'm just now picking things back up on site. I should have something more to say later this afternoon.

[mockingjaye]

Amrun, Andy gives me town reads because he guessed I would fall for it (I did). This is my first game since

Olympus

, and I spent all of that game in a QT with Andy (mod) and Katy (hydra partner). They are probably the only real friends I've made on site, and one of the things I said in the QT was that Andy probably knows me better than anyone else on site because of that game and another. He knew that I would believe he was giving a genuine read of me as town because I know that he knows me, and he was right in guessing I would be inclined to trust him. (You will see a somewhat similar exchange between me and Katy in Isengard, btw.)

As for the last post you quoted, in which Andy lists his reads and says I'm really busy town--note that he posted that AFTER he tried that "Oh, Mjaye isn't posting here but she is posting elsewhere" move and I called him out on it. He backed off, and I'm assuming he did that with the hope that I would drop it because as he well knows once I get an idea in my head it's very hard for me to get rid of it.

___

MoI: I thought your latent ability had been deactivated on D3? Post 1829, but now in Post 2258 it's been deactivated again? I am trying to get a handle on the timeline here. Was your ability ever deactivated in the first place, and if not, why did you say it was?

Empking: Why Furc?