The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[Amrun]

@Amrun %u2013 please narrow down you Vig list to 3 names please. In the case I do get back my Cop latent I don%u2019t want to duplicate efforts and possible waste the one good shot we have at a final use of dual abilities before one of us bites it.

will do by the end of the day

[Herodotus]

Confirming what Magna said in the last part of post 2124. I just checked that game including the scum QT; the town there responded by thinking he was town for being unaware of the mafia's two kills. I could definitely see him trying to use the same strategy again to look innocent.

[Amrun]

Yeah, I was in that game. He was skeevy, and though that particular thing helped get me off his back until I died,

he was skeevy

. His play is very different here.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Here are two posts where you explicitly make the effort to show you don’t know that the Mafia didn’t have two kills despite the fact that it was clearly disclosed in the sign-up and the whole premise of the first game. And you got at least one Town read for this ‘mix-up’ (from StephanB). And it’s a recent game so “oops, I forgot” don’t cut it.

And you were scum.

So you are lying when you say you would never try to fake lack of knowledge as scum.

And thus the whole premise that you could only be ‘inattentive’ in making those ‘mistakes’ in your opening post is blown completely apart. As is the WIFOM of “why would I as scum specifically post things that are easily refuted”.

And why I think you are a great lynch / Vig candidate. Kthxbye!!!

--

You asked if I would fake lack of knowledge, not if I ever actually miss something as scum. Those are two different questions.

I wasn't faking it in Dating Game Mafia 2. >_< It was just a lucky break for me that Stefan cleared me, but I had never played the Dating game mafia before so I didn't know it was public knowledge. Same reason I questioned you on the Seraphs in this game, because I haven't played in any of the other ones and I didn't bother to go look it up because honestly I don't care enough to do so.

I miss things all the time, regardless of alignment. That's because I tend to play by the seat of my pants and the majority of my game is based on gut, rather than thorough reading. I pretty much skim most games until it gets to a point where that doesn't cut it anymore, and then I pull out the logic guns and put in the work. I don't have the time or motivation to do that the whole way through a game.

[Mastermind of Sin]

For the record, I signed up for Mafia Dating Game 2 because farside22 was modding, not because of the mechanics. I didn't actually even realize we got two votes until the game started and I saw other people voting twice.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Oh, I actually found proof that I didn't know, haha...for supposedly checking the scum QT, you guys did a terrible job of reading.

Dating Game 2 Scum QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/bQ3nuSVSYmPR

Up until post 13 I only talk about killing one person, then the mod points out that we have a second kill thanks to Lowell, which from the way the mod worded it, I assumed the second kill was an special ability for his role, not a built-in mechanic for the game. In retrospect it's reasonable to have interpreted it differently, but as I've never played in a game where the mafia publicly had two kills, it didn't even occur to me to think of it like that.

[Nachomamma8]

Alright, to expand on what I wrote on Gut last time:

Gut's Seraph interactions:
I thought that the Empking gambit was something that, from a scum perspective, really didn't make a whole lot of sense unless it was on a partner. In doing something like that, Gut ran the risk of actually getting Empking lynched, which, if town, would be something that would end up exposing him while in the quicktopic and would force his seraph to boot him out. In addition, it would leave Gut looking terrible in the eyes of the town seraphs, and in the eyes of everyone else. There's also the fact that I have played with scumCES before, and his play all those times was much, much more lurky and much, much less aggressive.

kkb:
First of all, there is SpyreX. SpyreX is confirmed town and had a pretty fucking powerfully strong town read on kanye, and because Spyspy is Spyspy, I think that's definitely something that I would keep in mind. Otherwise, I haven't found a whole bunch of problem with his posting; he does bring a lot of good points to the table, and he has been pretty solidly townie.

Herodotus:
LordChronos didn't really do a whole bunch of shit except be a hypocrite, so not really factoring him into this. I'm getting a decently strong scum-read on Herodotus, though. He has a few bad interactions with Espeonage/smargaret, he has had a few opportunistic moments, and he is defending mockingjaye in an awkward kind of way. Will expand on this later since it seems like the proper kind of case.

[Nachomamma8]

And now, the rest:
Ludi and Sun and Moon are town by warrant of mason claim.
Feysal and Furcolow are third party.
MoS and MoI are probably town thanks to smargaret's mixup, MoI an additional town++ for being the target of the opportunistic 1v1 game.
Empking is probably town for giving gandalf his role.

[Nachomamma8]

That, and I find myself pretty fucking dubious that one of the roles that Plum put in the game was "UNKNOWN". Yes, this is a bastard game, but even a bastard game doesn't have a use for a role that has no motivation to play.

And giving really sucky roles to gandalf is acceptable, is what you're saying? Yeah, you're scum.

Gandalf was given a role that, while it did begin as UNKNOWN, was easily remedied during the night by Empking's role (in case you didn't notice, he was given a two-shot killing power, which, while not the best of roles, is a role with an alignment and a role with potential. I also note that it is also a highly provable role in case gandalf got in trouble for the first day of not having a role, and gives two shots in one night to town (it's also a far cry better than the suicide-bombing double vanillaizer in OoT mafia).

Andrius claims to be given a role that begins as UNKNOWN and that's the role. He apparently is not affected by the role giver, and he also apparently still has not received his role in four game days. There is a very massive difference in putting a role in the game that does not know role/alignment at the beginning of the game, but learns quite quickly as opposed to putting a role in the game that does not know role and alignment, which is utterly stupid. There is literally zero motive for Andrius to play the game, unless he just plays it like town and HOPES he guessed right.

Drawing this distinction really doesn't qualify me as scum, though, so I don't see at all how you're drawing that conclusion.

[Nachomamma8]

So Nacho is posting a paragraph about each player as he evaluates them, and is only through a few people so far? Note how he declares that Mastermind's attacks on Magna were inaccurate, but didn't put up a paragraph about Magna. Has he already decided Magna is town? Why wouldn't that paragraph precede the one on Mastermind?

1. Andrius
2. Magister Ludi (replacing ooba replacing Magister Ludi)
3. Sun and Moon (CSL + Amrun hydra)
6. Nachomamma8 (replacing Ellibereth)
7. Mastermind of Sin
8. Dekes
10. mockingjaye
11. Furcolow
12. Gut (Cogito Ergo Sum + chamber hydra)
15. Feysal (replacing Katsuki)
16. kanyeknowsbest
18. Empking
20. MagnaofIllusion
22. Herodotus (replacing LordChronos)

I'm having trouble taking your accusation seriously since the order of players that I do analysis on doesn't matter in any universe, or in any game. As for why I didn't post them all in one go, I made that perfectly clear in my post.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I miss things all the time, regardless of alignment. That's because I tend to play by the seat of my pants and the majority of my game is based on gut, rather than thorough reading. I pretty much skim most games until it gets to a point where that doesn't cut it anymore, and then I pull out the logic guns and put in the work. I don't have the time or motivation to do that the whole way through a game.

Then with this and your admission about your play in Dating Game 2 your whole argument about you having to be too ‘stupid’ to make that mistake as scum goes out the window. Seriously … you’ve just directly admitted you miss things as either alignment and shown how you missed obvious facts in Dating Game 2 as scum.

My stance about your start of Day post remains – I see it as scummy. Either you faked ‘missing the information’ as scum knowning you have this to fall back on or you really did miss it and made a horribly scummy attack when you saw only two kills, saw that Spyrex (your team’s shot) was one of them, and saw neither Amrun or myself was dead. You can argue it’s WIFOM, but I’m really not listening. Looking at the rest of your play, your bad Smarg / Esp interactions, and your general lack of scum-hunting I see you as scum.

I regret letting Spyrex sway me out of my scum read on you Day 1 / Day 2.

--

Ludi and Sun and Moon are town by warrant of mason claim.

1. Regardless of what I think of their alignments they aren’t Masons.
2. This is why you think Amrun is Town? Not the fact that she’s claimed a killing role that doesn’t have any likelihood of being Mafia?
3. Why in the hell did you vote for Amrun to begin with?

[Herodotus]

I'm getting a decently strong scum-read on Herodotus, though. He has a few bad interactions with Espeonage/smargaret

Since you mention this, let's consider the interaction between your playerslot and Espeonage/smargaret.
Ellibereth, despite some lurking, said that any lurkerlynch is good, and only ever attacked anyone for lurking.
During Day 3, while voting for Sun and Moon, Elibereth posted a link to Espeonage's search. He left his vote on the townie.
This was Nacho's playerslot's only interaction with Espeonage: FoS'ing him in a weak manner while voting for town.
My interaction with Espeonage consisted of wanting him vigged, then lynching him.

he has had a few opportunistic moments

Thanks for the filler?

and he is defending mockingjaye in an awkward kind of way.

I embrace that accusation. My defense of Mockingjaye is a matter of finding towntells scattered in play that I don't find particularly protown, so it may be awkward.

Will expand on this later since it seems like the proper kind of case.

If you do, please start by giving us your definition of "opportunistic".

[Herodotus]

So Nacho is posting a paragraph about each player as he evaluates them, and is only through a few people so far? Note how he declares that Mastermind's attacks on Magna were inaccurate, but didn't put up a paragraph about Magna. Has he already decided Magna is town? Why wouldn't that paragraph precede the one on Mastermind?

1. Andrius
2. Magister Ludi (replacing ooba replacing Magister Ludi)
3. Sun and Moon (CSL + Amrun hydra)
6. Nachomamma8 (replacing Ellibereth)
7. Mastermind of Sin
8. Dekes
10. mockingjaye
11. Furcolow
12. Gut (Cogito Ergo Sum + chamber hydra)
15. Feysal (replacing Katsuki)
16. kanyeknowsbest
18. Empking
20. MagnaofIllusion
22. Herodotus (replacing LordChronos)

I'm having trouble taking your accusation seriously since the order of players that I do analysis on doesn't matter in any universe, or in any game. As for why I didn't post them all in one go, I made that perfectly clear in my post.

It's a detail, a scumslip. It means you had already "decided" about Magna, but didn't want to simply state your opinion of him.

Your posting the playerlist doesn't mean much. I see now that you were partly following the order of the player numbers, but to me that means you felt that you needed an external guide to give you an arbitrary order. While I'll admit that this may be confirmation bias and it may not convince anyone, it just looks scummy to me.

Gut:
... I really don't like his floaty period inbetween his Vitamin suspicion and his suspicion of me.

If I understand correctly, this "floaty period" was Day 3 in which Gut proposed the gambit with Empking that you commented on, defended a townie, and lynched scum. How is that floaty?

[mockingjaye]

Regfan:

Yes, it is the point of the game. But focusing solely on one target even if it's your strongest suspect isn't the aim of the game at all.

Secondly you attempted to push or question Espeonage deeper after presenting a very valid point on why he's scummy or suspicious in #550

yet felt completely happy to continue to pester Kanye.

I have been focused on my biggest scumread while sharing other reads. For the bolded part, do you mean I

didn't

attempt to push or question Esp further? Because if you did, you forgot a word. If you didn't forget a word, then . And I did ask Esp things, he just wouldn't answer them. I asked a lot of questions on D1 and D2, and if they weren't outright ignored, they were answered very vaguely. When I did ask him something, Esp wouldn't respond to me anymore than Kanye would, if you go back and look. And yes I was completely happy to "pester Kanye" because he was and is my top scum read. I figured we could come back to Esp after we got Kanye lynched. I also thought Kanye might have a scum-PR based on how his wagons were breaking up and how defensive people have been about him.

Also, you say "pester Kanye" like it's a bad thing. If you have a strong scum read on someone, and vote for them, and question them, and they refuse to answer you, do you back off and say you're being too hard on them? There seems to be an undercurrent of this sentiment that I'm picking on poor Kanye in your word choice here. I'm not "pestering" him. I think he's scum, and I've tried very hard to get him lynched during this game. I don't always get such a strong read on people, but when I do, I pursue it until satisfied. He dodged my questions and comments for two days, and today, he's ready to lynch me and get me out of the game. Gee, I wonder why?

You showed acknowledgement, understanding and to a degree agreement with his reasoning, you presented no real counter other than 'But maybe scum thought X instead' and stuck with your previous reasoning and logic. I can understand still suspecting Kanye after it and not fully agreeing with the conclusions that SpyreX was pushing but what I don't understand is that how presentation of his logical counter points didn't weaken your scum-read at all and you showed no real sign of scumhunting heavily elsewhere afterwards which makes your whole 'consideration period' seem non-existent.

It's interesting how you're interpreting this passage and how you keep coming back to it as if it's the Rosetta Stone. It's pretty apparent what I mean in this passage, and this is what I was talking about in the last post I made.

Basically, SpyreX presented an argument. I thought about it, saw his points, questioned my own argument, and came to the conclusion that while I believed his argument was made in sincerity, it was also sincerely wrong; I felt it was based on one point of "what if," and I had an equally valid counter "what if" and I stuck with that. I DON'T HAVE TO CHANGE MY MIND just because I considered someone else's argument. It didn't weaken my read because it wandered down a long path of WIFOM and counter-WIFOM and the points I have on Kanye were separate from that. How can you not understand unless you're being deliberately obtuse? As for the consideration period being non-existent, um, I considered in my head. I didn't walk all the way through it in the thread. Other than that, Kanye was my top read, and it was (and is) my goal to get him lynched, or at the very least, vigged.

I disagree, MoI really wasn't 'heavily suspected' or even 'suspected' by any means and although you may have wanted to calm people down and spur discussion as well as reaffirm your thoughts I don't see how focusing on this situation was a relevant use of your time especially with deadline winding down.

First of all: you put "heavily suspected" in quotation marks like I said it--I didn't. I just said MoI wasn't universally considered town at that point. And, if you read the comments made, he wasn't.

Everyone should have questioned their reads on both him and Amrun on D3 after they both claimed the same role.

And how was it not relevant? In every post, MoI was demanding an Amrun lynch; there was a low rumbling of "I'm not saying MoI is scum but he might be" going on, and it was pretty much all anyone was talking about.

WTF do you mean it wasn't a relevant use of time?

I was deciding whom I believed, and as it happens, I believed them both. I wanted everyone to shut up and stop finger-pointing for five minutes and consider that they could both be telling the truth; scum thrive in confusion, and yesterday was confusing.

You're claiming to have mega-strong town-reads on MoI and Ludi while also claiming to have a mega-strong scum-read on Kanye so your whole 'my wagon is scum driven' is either 1) You subtly declaring suspicion towards me or 2) You just finding another way of saying you suspect Kanye.

1. "Mega-strong" is your terminology, not mine, at least in regards to town reads. Obviously it's adequate to describe my Kanye read. 2. D4 has begun with a call for my lynch. I know I'm town, even no one else does, so I am looking at people calling for said lynch. Not all of them are town. The chances of there being only town on my wagon, even at this point, are very slim, and obviously I'm putting Kanye on the top of the list, and you're next. If YOU'RE town, you should look to the other three and question your reads--because at least one of them isn't town. I am also looking at people staying off the wagon. At any rate, I addressed this in my previous post about reads. If you're town, what direction are you going to take when I flip town?

What would you do if you were in my position and knew you were town? You would look at who is pushing your lynch/vig as well, wouldn't you? Do you honestly think that of the four people who were on my wagon when I first posted this, all of them are town? (Kanye, you, Ludi, MoI)

By the way, when you were "up to page 20," these were your reads:

Though page 20 and the amount of flavor and setup speculation is abysmal. From what I've read I'm leaning heavily towards Andrius, Furcolow, MoI and Ludi being town with weaker town-reads on MoS, Eli and to a degree Gut. I'd say that Mockingjaye and LordChronos are likely scum as well.

Kanye was a significant wagon at the time, and you have nothing to say about him at that point at all. In fact, it isn't until you're at about page 53 of your read-through that you do mention him, at which time your say he's scum. Why, exactly, is he scum at that point and nothing before?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I miss things all the time, regardless of alignment. That's because I tend to play by the seat of my pants and the majority of my game is based on gut, rather than thorough reading. I pretty much skim most games until it gets to a point where that doesn't cut it anymore, and then I pull out the logic guns and put in the work. I don't have the time or motivation to do that the whole way through a game.

Then with this and your admission about your play in Dating Game 2 your whole argument about you having to be too ‘stupid’ to make that mistake as scum goes out the window. Seriously … you’ve just directly admitted you miss things as either alignment and shown how you missed obvious facts in Dating Game 2 as scum.

My stance about your start of Day post remains – I see it as scummy. Either you faked ‘missing the information’ as scum knowning you have this to fall back on or you really did miss it and made a horribly scummy attack when you saw only two kills, saw that Spyrex (your team’s shot) was one of them, and saw neither Amrun or myself was dead. You can argue it’s WIFOM, but I’m really not listening. Looking at the rest of your play, your bad Smarg / Esp interactions, and your general lack of scum-hunting I see you as scum.

I regret letting Spyrex sway me out of my scum read on you Day 1 / Day 2.

Now you're just misrepresenting me. I'm arguing that it makes absolutely no sense for me to purposefully make that argument and try to fake it, which has been your argument this entire time. I also argued that it was ridiculous to conclude I was scum BECAUSE I missed the information. It is certainly logical, from the point of view where one does not already know my alignment (ie not where I'm coming from), to conclude that it's possible I made that mistake as scum. But it is NOT logical to conclude that making that mistake is EVIDENCE that I am scum. That makes no sense whatsoever.

But I don't really see the point in trying to argue this anymore. You've already indicated that you're not interested in finding the truth, you're just interested in trying to ram this read down our throats. You're not listening, so I don't see the point in responding to you anymore. Good day, sir.

[mockingjaye]

Nacho:

So, everyone is town except for me, and maybe Herod who is defending me, and maybe Andy but not really? And Kanye must be town just because Spy thought so? And you have no problem with the fact that he parked his vote on a third party/unknown (who has now flipped town) for pretty much all of D1, or of the fact that he made up some hogwash about wanting to lynch Gandalf but not believing that there were any scum on his wagon but were instead all on the sidelines plotting to accuse people on the wagon--and

yet when asked to provide reads of those people, had none, and still maintained that Gandalf was the best lynch

?

And his defensive statement in response to Ludi--the one where he (Kanye) said "

you can say i was trying to do it for town cred later on but its a bit early for that

," indicating he was already worried about having his motives questioned? That doesn't bother you at all? And how, after a full week and a half of gameplay, 27 pages, and 650 posts, the ONLY person he found worhty of lynching was someone who didn't even have a role yet, and the BEST he could do in the way of offering an opinion about where scum might be was wagon-WIFOM which didn't even include names? How does this strike you as being anything other than trying to look like a "pretty solid townie" when he was, in actuality, doing nothing at all?

The only time he offered reads at all was when I (or someone else, but I'm going with mine for brevity) gave him a list of people to discuss, and this is what he said:

ive already stated my position on feysal and spy (town and not scum.) andrius i am wary of but i would rather see gandalf lynched before him. i cannot read empking without association tells. im feeling town from moi. null on espeonage.

When I approached him from a different angle, and asked about Feysal's wagon, he didn't even respond. On D2, he first states he thinks Vitamin R is town, then when MoI pushes him about analyzing the wagon, he says he could "see him being scum based on the wagon" but doesn't see anything in his ISO that says scum...and then, not surprisingly, hops on the Vitamin R wagon. He did almost the exact same thing on D1, when he had no scum reads but suddenly found Pere a worthy lynch target. So, he skates by D1 having no reads except for Gandalf, then votes for town-Pere; does the same exact thing on D2, and on D3, makes a list or two of town vs. scum reads and votes smarg late in the day, and he's super town?

Herod:

Okay, I see your point about my logic with Nacho. The reason you're on my list, though, is because of the people who weren't actively voting me, you were the only one actively defending me, and I'm paranoid right now. I'm going to flip town, so I am looking at how people are reacting to me, and it makes sense to me that at least one scum is staying as far away from the mislynch as possible.

Also, back to this question: "What happens when Kanyek flips town?"
Then I was obviously wrong about him? I would then look very hard at those still alive who were happy to wagon him and then hop off his wagon, especially on both D1 and D2. I would look very hard at anyone who has expressed an interest in voting him but hasn't, or who has and then had a change of heart. Finally, I would look at whoever ardently defended him. Most likely there will be scum and town amongst each of those three lists, but it would be easier to group suspects that way and then work from there. It would be a start, anyway.

MoI (re: 2065)

1. Okay, so I had a different understanding of what AtE is, as I thought it was actually related to appealing to emotion, not logic; and I still think the question is a logical one. I'm not asking you for mercy based on feelings; I'm asking people to think based on logic. I am town; I know I'm town, and I'm fine with getting flipped right now because then everyone will know I'm town, but I want to put everything I'm thinking on the table before I do leave the game, and I'm bringing these things up apurpose to try to get people to think ahead.

2. As for your VCA comments, okay, but I still don't know what all the numbers mean. (I'm not a math person, or a stats person, at all.) What I do know is that in my case, you're getting a false positive. I am not ignoring your other people so much as I am responding to you about myself; they will have to speak for themselves.

3. About Kanye. I'm back to him today, but on D3, I spent most of the day trying to figure out the mess between you and Amrun. And I didn't just lock my suspicions on him the whole time. If anyone is even bothering to read the things I said on D1 or D2, I commented on Emp, Esp, S&M, Pere, and Feysal; I offered my two cents about Gandalf and Andrius and your interactions with the seraphs; I questioned people when I had questions and responded to everyone who wanted me to answer for something. I didn't get around to commenting on everyone, but I haven't had something worth saying about everyone, either.

Can you really go back and look at my questions and not see that I'm in earnest? I know I mentioned Kanye a lot and kept my vote on him, but I was also actively discussing the rest of the game, too, and I'm kind of frustrated that I'm being painted as having commented on

only

him for two days while ignoring everything else, because that isn't the truth at all. I also get that one of the two points in the case on me is that I had Esp/Marg on my list and never moved them to the top, but as I've said in other posts, I had a stronger read on Kanye, and my read on Esp was majorly linked to Kanye's flip. As for my comments about Esp only being "early," I questioned him up until the end of D1, which he ignored, and then on D2, brought up that I still wanted him to answer my questions, but was also still ignored. And, ultimately, I wasn't opposed to lynching Esp/Marg, but I preferred a Kanye lynch and therefore kept pushing it. The reason I was late on the Marg wagon was because I was waiting to hear from you about your ability and didn't want the day to end before we at least had some idea if you would still have to suicide or not.

4. I began D4 with Kanye for two reasons: A) I still think he's scum, and B) My reaction to his vote for me was "I bet you do want me gone." I don't always get a super-strong read on people; in fact, it's pretty rare, but I have one this time and he hasn't done anything to make me change my mind.

5. You clearly have MoS and me pegged as scum and ask Amrun to look at our interactions with Esp/Marg. Have you looked at mine and MoS's interactions?

---
So my list is still KKB, Regfan, Andy, and Herod, and for the record, I've reconsidered the point I made about Nacho being town and think Herod has a decent point, and that combined with Nacho's pseudo-reads that find no one but me and Herod scummy is enough to put him back on my radar.

[Plum]

VOTE COUNT #4.7

Nachomamma8 - 1 - Gut
Feysal -

6

- Empking, Andrius, MagnaofIllusion, Mastermind of Sin, Magister Ludi, Sun and Moon
mockingjaye - 2 - kanyeknowsbest, Regfan
kanyeknowsbest - 2 - mockingjaye, Furcolow
Sun and Moon - 1 - Nachomamma8

Not Voting (2): Feysal, Herodotus

With 14 alive it will take 8 votes to lynch.

First post should now be fixed with replacements listed properly.

Feysal is being prodded.

Deadline for Day 4 will be in approximately (but no fewer than) 6 days and will be exactly determined soon.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I've reevaluated my read on mockingjaye. I don't think scum would be this blindly tunneled on someone who is generally considered to be town. If she was scum, I think she would have backed off and tried to go in a different direction and just kept Kanye on her scumlist without continually pressuring him. I withdraw mockingjaye from my potential vig list. I think Andrius is pretty obviously the best choice for tonight, with Nacho coming in at a distant second based mostly on Ellibereth's play. I haven't done much more than skim his posts since he replaced, but I haven't seen anything that jumped out at me as exceptionally townie.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – Per usual I will be LA from 4pm EST today until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

--

5. You clearly have MoS and me pegged as scum and ask Amrun to look at our interactions with Esp/Marg. Have you looked at mine and MoS's interactions?

Yes I did in my large post session where I evaluated Esp / Smarg against the four of you at the top of my print-out. It was secondary but I did look at interactions between all four of my suspects.

[MagnaofIllusion]

NOTE TO TOWN

- Based on what we know of the 36 hour Seraph cycle at 5:00pm EST on Sunday we should have exceeded the 72 hour threshold to make sure Minaday gets one more action before Night. So please do not lynch Feysal before then.

In fact - I would rather someone unvotes him to get him from L-2 soon. I'd not like him to be able to self-hammer if scum want to stick their necks out and get him there to interfere with this plan.

[Nachomamma8]

1. Regardless of what I think of their alignments they aren’t Masons.
2. This is why you think Amrun is Town? Not the fact that she’s claimed a killing role that doesn’t have any likelihood of being Mafia?
3. Why in the hell did you vote for Amrun to begin with?

1. Let me correct myself: One is a miller sibling vigilante, and the other is a sibling.
2. Amrun is town because of her claim, yes.
3. Because I saw a miller claim after a cop guilty claim, and reacted instinctively.

This was Nacho's playerslot's only interaction with Espeonage: FoS'ing him in a weak manner while voting for town.

Lurkers don't really have a whole lot of interactions with other playerslots. That's why we hate them, and that's why we call them lurkers.

While I'll admit that this may be confirmation bias and it may not convince anyone, it just looks scummy to me.

You are criticizing the ORDER of my cases.
The ORDER.
That is reaching. I can handle your other accusations, but this one is just stupid.

So, everyone is town except for me, and maybe Herod who is defending me, and maybe Andy but not really?

There's more to it than you point out, but I don't really have time for that. So I acknowledge your posting, and raise you an IOU.

[Regfan]

Going to finish reading the rest of the page in a few minutes, will probably reply tonight when I get back from a party.

I have been focused on my biggest scumread while sharing other reads. For the bolded part, do you mean I

didn't

attempt to push or question Esp further? Because if you did, you forgot a word. If you didn't forget a word, then . And I did ask Esp things, he just wouldn't answer them. I asked a lot of questions on D1 and D2, and if they weren't outright ignored, they were answered very vaguely. When I did ask him something, Esp wouldn't respond to me anymore than Kanye would, if you go back and look. And yes I was completely happy to "pester Kanye" because he was and is my top scum read. I figured we could come back to Esp after we got Kanye lynched. I also thought Kanye might have a scum-PR based on how his wagons were breaking up and how defensive people have been about him.

Yes I did miss a word being didn't and reading back I really am not seeing this questioning of Espeonage that you're claiming to have done, quoting or linking me to them would be greatly appreciated.

It didn't weaken my read because it wandered down a long path of WIFOM and counter-WIFOM and the points I have on Kanye were separate from that. How can you not understand unless you're being deliberately obtuse?

Understanding another persons counter-argument against your case even when you might not fully agree with it at the end of the

should

weaken your read or at least create an element of uncertainty. I keep coming back to this point because your whole 'what if' counter point wasn't and isn't as strong as you're making it out to be.

First of all: you put "heavily suspected" in quotation marks like I said it--I didn't. I just said MoI wasn't universally considered town at that point. And, if you read the comments made, he wasn't.

Everyone should have questioned their reads on both him and Amrun on D3 after they both claimed the same role.

And how was it not relevant? In every post, MoI was demanding an Amrun lynch; there was a low rumbling of "I'm not saying MoI is scum but he might be" going on, and it was pretty much all anyone was talking about.

WTF do you mean it wasn't a relevant use of time?

I was deciding whom I believed, and as it happens, I believed them both. I wanted everyone to shut up and stop finger-pointing for five minutes and consider that they could both be telling the truth; scum thrive in confusion, and yesterday was confusing.

I wasn't trying to quote you at all, I use quotation marks to emphaize key words. MoIs insistence on lynching Armun yesterday mostly revolved around the fact that he was suicidal if she didn't get lynched, retraction of that from the Seraphs sorted the whole situation out very easily. And no, although they name-counter claimed it most certainly didn't mean that at least one of them had to be scum and I don't remember many or any people stating that during my read through. I would actually like you to link me to people pushing for MoIs lynch during this time other than Amruns slight push towards him.

At any rate, I addressed this in my previous post about reads. If you're town, what direction are you going to take when I flip town? What would you do if you were in my position and knew you were town? You would look at who is pushing your lynch/vig as well, wouldn't you? Do you honestly think that of the four people who were on my wagon when I first posted this, all of them are town? (Kanye, you, Ludi, MoI)

I find wagon analysis to be very trivial, although just by odds it's unlikely that four people voting one person are all town the possibility shouldn't be ruled out for that, furthermore the whole 'I'm town thus there has to be scum pushing me!' is illogical. The fact that there's numerous votes on you mean you're being viewed as scummy or objectively scum from a number of people and considering how all of the people voting you can't be scum it means that there's a townie finding you scummy thus there's every chance that everyone voting you is finding you legitimately scum and town. As for what I'd do if you were to flip town; I'd probably focus a bit more time reading into Kanye and your points against him as well as looking very hard at Herrodutus, his town read on you is all sorts of illogical.

Kanye was a significant wagon at the time, and you have nothing to say about him at that point at all. In fact, it isn't until you're at about page 53 of your read-through that you do mention him, at which time your say he's scum. Why, exactly, is he scum at that point and nothing before?

I tried to refrain from stating a read on Kanye too early in my read through because it's what I did in Sexy Sedilla and I misread him badly and ended up focusing more of my effort pushing towards him than I would have liked in that game. As for why I started heavily suspecting him at around page 53 I would have to re-read the section to answer that.

[Magister Ludi]

Unvote

This is the plan. However, magna, how come you didn't unvote, despite yourself saying it was really good to do so?

I also don't Agree with MoS re: his mockingjay read.

[Herodotus]

The flip makes kanye look a lot better, mjay. It also basically clears MoS in my opinion.

What was this in relation to? (In particular, which flip?)

@Nachom: Do you believe that any mafia voted for either of Sun and Moon or Empking yesterday?

To be fair I have to ask myself the same question regarding the VitaminR lynch. Gut, Andrius, and Kanyek seem like realistic possibilities, though I don't have an overall scum read on any of them.

Spoiler: Not game-relevant, or at least not very

(The following is meant as an aside)
@Mockingjaye: You asked about the VCA numbers. From what I can tell, Magna's method was to assume the scum are equally distributed between on and off every lynch wagon, remove people from the wagons who were either confirmed town or strong town reads, assign points to people on each wagon/nonwagon by dividing by the number of unremoved wagoners/nonwagoners, and add those points together. I think such a system is clever, as it can in theory catch bussing as well as nonbussing scum, and the assumption that scum are likely to be both on and off the lynchwagon is often true. It has some negatives, though, as it considers each wagon/nonwagon and player independently (ignoring correlations) in order to make the calculations manageable and possible to show in-thread. Also, Magna ran the analysis with the assumption that the scum don't have a bias for wanting to lynch townies instead of each other.

[Feysal]

I see the day is progressing as expected. I of course have little reason to say anything by this point, but since I was prodded I should. Besides, I do feel like I should respond to some of these posts for personal reasons.

That's so stupid I can't even believe you bothered.

Your explantion makes absolutely no sense.

You wanted a scum kill? Should have made one while you had the chance.

I believe I have figured out why I have a problem with your play so often. You have no imagination.

I have repeatedly accused you of relying on generic tells, which you apply rigidly to every player and every situation. Whenever you see someone doing something strange and unexpected, your response is to call them scum. You like to refer to what town and scum tend to do according to your experience, but you do not recognize your experience having limits and make no effort to understand things outside it. People have different approaches and playstyles, which you ignore in favor of your established policies. Case in point, you spent all of yesterday trying to get Amrun lynched and refused to be persuaded otherwise. I did not agree with you, instead I looked for scum elsewhere and

started the wagon on Glaurung

. Makes me wonder how you reconcile that with your belief that I would need Amrun to die.

My play makes perfect sense to me, even if you cannot see it. You apparently cannot imagine someone recognizing their win condition as a lost cause, and that this could drive them to seek an alternate motivation to play. That is how I have played, and I have no regrets.

You say that this game would prove that third party roles never help town. In fact it will prove the opposite. I may not have been successful, but both of my shots were aimed at scum. You say that I am appealing for one more day? If I am, it is not for my own sake, as I have lost either way. You say I should have killed scum while I had the chance...? If that is so easy, why don't you find one actual scum yourself instead of third party.

Given apparently we are completely out of contact with them I suggest we lynch Feysal after 72 hours from this post. That guarentees that Minaday gets one more action but doesn’t extend the day needlessly.

If there is one thing I should thank you for, it is for giving me an exact time when I am to be lynched. I will be sure to be here to provide my final thoughts. Oh yes, I do think there will be something for me to share.

I'd not like him to be able to self-hammer if scum want to stick their necks out and get him there to interfere with this plan.

Me, self-hammer? Why, to troll the town with my last action alive?

This post settles it. MoI,

you do not know me at all

.

Oh I said I would comment on Feysal. I believe he has to say whatever he thinks will keep him alive until he can shoot Turin tonight, so the SK claim is probably a lie. But even if it isn't, lynching an SK is okay.

I would like to say that I am quite amused by this - I am to be lynched because you believe my serial killer claim is false. I wonder how many players can claim to have experienced the same?

More seriously, why do you think that lynching me would be okay even if I was a serial killer? In that case, you should recognize that I have given up, and at least consider my offer. If genuine, it could result in town gain.