There Is No Conspiracy (Game Over)

andersonw · Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:43 am

I'll \in for this.

andersonw · Post Post #23 (isolation #1) » Sat Sep 27, 2008 11:15 am

I agree with CDB.
Hi everyone, also.

I was thinking that we could massclaim whether we were in a conspiracy or not, but then I realized that if there was a conspiracy, anyone in the conspiracy would obviously say they were not in a conspiracy.

andersonw · Post Post #30 (isolation #2) » Sat Sep 27, 2008 11:21 am

Netlava wrote:Massclaims are useless. I'm busy figuring out why mith chose 83%...

thoughts, anyone?

Because 1/(5+1) is 16.666...%, which is the probability of there not being a conspiracy (see first post), and 100-16.6666...=83.3333...%

Netlava wrote: why did you decide to point this out?

Just wanted to say my thoughts, since nobody else was saying theirs.

andersonw · Post Post #34 (isolation #3) » Sat Sep 27, 2008 11:25 am

ChannelDelibird wrote:So chances are we do have one.

I would like to point out something. Let's say I am not in a conspiracy. There are two possibilities in which this can happen:
1. There isn't a conspiracy.
2. There is one, but I'm not a part of it.

The probability of 1 happening is 1/6.
The probability of 2 happening is 5/6*1/5 (since there are five players, and 1 would be picked randomly to not be in a conspiracy)=1/6

So there is an equal chance of there being a conspiracy or there not being a conspiracy for me.

andersonw · Post Post #39 (isolation #4) » Sat Sep 27, 2008 11:29 am

Seraphim wrote:Wait, hold on; would the Mafia be a part of the conspiracy?

Just read the OP carefully.

andersonw · Post Post #51 (isolation #5) » Sat Sep 27, 2008 11:42 am

Yeah, I think we tried to make it too obvious that there wasn't a conspiracy.

Good game, this was fun.