Micro 1067: Is There a Doctor in the House? - Game over!

[Elements]

Don't worry Doctor, I'll help you find those rival spies!
VOTE: Tabibitos

[Elements]

Mwahaha
VOTE: GandpaMo

[Elements]

mine is David Tennant's incarnation of The Doctor

[Elements]

Last time I hydraed we had an in game chat like masons

[Elements]

I have already an early idea about how we could try to optimally play the setup perhaps but not only I'm in the phone atm so it's a pain to write long posts, as much as I want to do lol strategies on a semi-bastard games, I don't know much about the player list here and their opinion on trying to play a wonky setup optimally versus enjoying the wonkiness of it. I would need everyone cooperation on the mech plan so before we argue how good of a mech plan it is, does anyone oppose the very idea of trying to minimize the wonky aka "fun" (be it good or bad) nature of the setup?

Go for it. Trying to fix the wonk sometime makes it even more wonk. Either way I'm all here for it

[Elements]

silver theme > black theme

found scum y'all

[Elements]

VOTE: Scoliosis

[Elements]

I am absolutely 1000% real Nurse not scum

No I'm Spartacus

[Elements]

Does that not work because the no kill could be from a doctor saving someone or the night kill could be a doctor killing someone?

[Elements]

Pop

[Elements]

Could yall put the giant walls and quoting of giant walls in spoilers please

[Elements]

The mountainous idea won't work. At least enchant will try out their night action

[Elements]

Sssssecretsssss

[Elements]

What's the scum slip?

Here:

I do declare myself to be scum

[Elements]

UNVOTE:

[Elements]

This seems quite standard from my experience with enchant. If anything is more activity than I'd expect

[Elements]

This seems quite standard from my experience with enchant. If anything is more activity than I'd expect

ok can u tell me what u got out of the convo? i got nothing.

its just seems like im wasting my time trying to talk to them.

and when im trying to understand them they shut me up

I didn't get anything, it's just how I've come to expect enchant to play.
A budget Not_Mafia

[Elements]

Idk what it says about their allotments yet but I'm loving this Mo/Enchant interaction

[Elements]

If a normal doctor and a CPR doctor target the same player they live right?

[Elements]

would it not be
doc targets player 1
mafia targets player 2
CPR targets player 1 >> quack doctor
initial doctor saves from the CPR kill
Player 1 lives

Doc targets player 1
mafia targets player 1 >> doc saves from mafia kill
CRP targets player 1 who is not currently going to die >> quack doctor
Player 1 dies

[Elements]

is someone around to tell me why isn't the nurse just an IC and why shouldn't we out them on d1

I think we're deciding on our night plan before we get the nurse to claim. In case something something mech spec

[Elements]

plan: get the nurse out on d1. if counterclaimed, resolve the claim. don't use any NAs. play it out.

there won't be a cc today

[Elements]

Doc targets player 1
mafia targets player 1 >> doc saves from mafia kill
CRP targets player 1 who is not currently going to die >> quack doctor
Player 1 dies

I think it's this way round for this scenario because: 1 CPR Doctor - Saves their target if their target would

otherwise

be killed – otherwise, kills their target
Without the CQP doctor targeting player 1, player 1 would live. So CPR would kill

[Elements]

if we misuse our NAs horribly enough they can reach parity on d2:

elim
weak dies
quack kills
cpr kills
mafia kill

and d2 will be 2vs2. so whatever NAs, we have to set them up and everyone needs to agree with it (I'm too dumb to figure out how to properly use them) or it's best to agree to not use them, at least not on n1.

This is most likely to happen if we circular target I think.
Hence the 2 groups idea that's been going around. That way we have max 3 dead town tomorrow

[Elements]

doctor targets player 1 >> saves player 1
mafia targets player 2
CPR targets player 1 >> kills player 1 (becomes quack esstentially)
player 1 dies

I can see this being the ruling

[Elements]

the problem I have with organising night actions is that the mafia just get to kill someone

[Elements]

can you explain that to me in a few words?

This is most likely to happen if we circular target I think.

the only way to have 4 night kills is if CPR, Quack, Weak, Mafia all target different people and weak hits mafia. The easiest way for this to happen is if we target in a circle. Then Quack and CPR will 100% kill their targets + mafia kill makes 3. Then all we need is for weak to be next to a mafia.
Circular targeting almost always results in 2 kills. The only way it doesn't is if the mafia doing the kill gets jailed.

Hence the 2 groups idea that's been going around. That way we have max 3 dead town tomorrow

With two groups, only two players will be targeted.
The only way to get 3 town killed is if both targets die + mafia kill.
The jailer will guarantee one of the targets lives so there can only be 2 town deaths.
The only way for there to be 3 deaths is if the weak doctor dies and the non-jailed target dies. In this case the non-jailed target is scum and also dies.

Does that make sense?

[Elements]

tldr

I think eliminating today is the better option.
If we hit scum, that's incredibly good for us. We can pick players and targets, maybe 2 or 3, and gain so much information about their roles without fear of losing to night actions because there's only 1 mafia left.
If we hit town. We still have all 8 town roles left in the game and can do the 2 groups strategy.
In this scenario I don't see any reason for the nurse to claim?
Nurse never gets exiled here because they just claim if they're on the block and without claiming the mafia will have to guess who to kill to get rid of a confirmed town tomorrow.

[Elements]

1st group (4 people) -- this group will all target the nurse to protect them
2nd group (nurse will be in this group so 5 people) -- this group will investigate by targeting a person who they think is sus within group 2.

4+5=9

[Elements]

what are the possible situatuiions? then you would try to rule out much possibilities but like i told abnegation the possibility of 4 deaths is just highly unlikely and we dont need to think that far ahead until it comes out.

sure the possibility of 4 deaths is unlikely, but why even risk it when it straight up loses the game

[Elements]

I also like the idea of targeting the 2 scummiest players with the groups. 1 will be role blocked and one has a fair chance of being killed.

[Elements]

Group 1: A, b, c, d - Target E
Group 2: E, f, g, h - Target A

[Elements]

where does the 3rd person come from?

[Elements]

that's why I don't think nurse should out

[Elements]

Seeing as I'm getting into the mech spec I'll do my due diligence and go through Aether's explanation properly

[Elements]

just put enchant with group 1 -- there u go, u will always have atleast ONE TOWN on nurse at all times. i think this is solid so in conclusion

group 1 - a, b, c -- target nurse
group 2 - d, e -- target each other
group 3 - f, g -- target each other
group 4 - nurse -- target no one

The town on the nurse does have a 1 in 4 chance of just killing them.
And we also don't get much info of the Nurse's ability

[Elements]

reading through Aether's post I found this

The other group would as said be targeting a suspect, but now that I'm writing this I realize that we should choose someone inside this group to be targeted. The reason is that I realized that if the JK is in this group, and they target someone protecting the Nurse, it may block someone ability causing imbalance on the amount of protection/killing power and accidentally killing the Nurse without giving us much info.

Which I'm not sure what it changes but I'm going to have a think about it so thanks for that catch Aether

[Elements]

I'm considering actually doing the maths...

[Elements]

if we can protect the nurse, it's even more important for it to be outed d1, as the inherited ability will be the only confirmed ability and increases our n2 impact immensely. not outing the nurse can get it killed at night.

When a town die they flip as "Doctor" and doesn't tell us their ability.

[Elements]

also, not outing the nurse can have the bandwagoned scum claiming nurse, which will get cc'ed anyway, but then we might have less time to coordinate our NAs.

When we decide our co-ordination we can put in the caveat:
If the nurse is outed, the other group targets her instead.

e.g.
Group 1: A, b, c, d -> E
Group 2: E, f, g, h -> A

c is outed as nurse

Group 1: A, b, c, d -> E
Group 2: E, f, g, h -> c

[Elements]

You changing your pfp confused me for a sec there Gimli

[Elements]

saying that the nurse would just claim doctor knowing they won't get cc'd whenever they out themself

[Elements]

I agree. Wh0 doesn;t think about the mafia kill when playing mafia?

[Elements]

^ town

[Elements]

Maths Behind 2 Groups!

Group 1: A, b, c, d -> E
Group 2: E, f, g, h -> A
(all this is the same if you replace A with E)

Spoiler: NAR and CPR

To make this easier on myself I am going to assume the following about the CPR doctor and night action resolutions:
Night actions resolve as instances:
Doctor and Weak Doctor add an instance of heal (+1) to a target.
Quack doctor and mafia kill add an instance of kill (-1) to a target.
CPR adds heal (+1) or kill (-1) depending.
(The only other night action is the Paranoid doctor which will always protect their target so we don't need to worry about that)

After all actions have resolved the instances on each player are summed to a give the player's [Status].
If a player's [Status]:
> 0 -> Player lives
= 0 -> Player lives
< 0 -> Player dies

When the CPR doctor resolves, it looks at the [Status] of its target before it acts.
If a player's [Status]:
> 0 -> CPR adds a kill (-1) and the player doesn't die
= 0 -> CPR adds a kill (-1) and the player dies
< 0 -> CPR adds a heal (+1) potentially saving the player

This is how CPR interaction and action resolution makes sense to me. If that's not how it works then welp I'm probably about to waste a lot of time lol!

Mafia kill does not target A

In order for A to die, one of group 1 must be the JK.
Therefore 3 roles will be told to target A.
35 combinations to target A.

Spoiler: Maths

7 roles left that can target A
7x6x5 = 210
Taking into account permutations
210/3! = 35

The second condition required for A to die is for the Quack or CPR to kill them.

Case without CPR

Without CPR the only way for A to die is by Quack killing them.
This happens is Quack is in Group 2 and is not Jail-kept.
There is a 3/10 chance for the Quack to kill this way.

Spoiler: Maths

Assuming no CPR and Quack is in the group
1x5x4 = 20
Accounting for permutations
20/2! = 10

	0	0	0	1	1
0	x	0	0	1	1
0	0	x	0	1	1
0	0	0	x	1	1
1	1	1	1	x	2
1	1	1	1	2	x

3/10 result in a kill

Case without Quack

Without the Quack, the CPR will act like a Quack so the above maths can be used.
3/10 chance of death.

Case with CPR and Quack

If the Quack were to kill the CPR will save the target so only the CPR can kill.
There is a 2/5 chance of death.

Spoiler: Maths

With CPR and Quack
1x1x5 =5
No permutations
Of these 5, 2 include a heal and 3 do not.
When there is a heal it will cancel out the Quack kill so the CPR will kill.
When there is no heal the CPR will see the target killed and so heal them.
Therefore 2/5 chance of death.

Overall

8/35 chance of killing the target.

Mafia kill does target A

We have 35 combinations of roles as before.
For A to die there must be more kills than heals on them.

Case with Quack but without CPR

There will be 2 kill instances on A.
A will only live if there are 2 heal instances.
There is only 1/10 chance of there being 2 heal instances.
There is a 9/10 chance of death.
(See Mafia kill doesn't target A subsection Case without CPR for maths)

Case with CPR but without Quack

Due to the additional kill on A, CPR doesn't act quite the same as before.
6/10 chance of death

Spoiler: Maths

Taking into account the kill instance from the mafia kill

-1	0	0	0	1	1
0	x	-1	-1	0	0
0	-1	x	-1	0	0
0	-1	-1	x	0	0
1	0	0	0	x	1
1	0	0	0	1	x

Green signifies when CPR acts to heal
Red signifies when CPR acts to kill
3/10 CPR saves A
6/10 CPR kills A
1/10 CPR kills A but they are saved

Case with Quack and CPR

In this scenario there are always 2 kill instances on A so the CPR will always act to heal.
3/5 chance of death.

Spoiler: Maths

If the third slot is a null: Mafia + Quack - CPR = Kill (x3)
If the third slot is a heal: Mafia + Quack - Heal - CPR = Live (x2)

Case without Quack or CPR

There is 1 kill instance in this scenario.
6/10 chance of death

Spoiler: Maths

For no heals we need all 3 nulls
3x2x1 = 6
The other combinations all have at least 1 heal so will save A

Overall

24/35 chance of death

Conclusion

If we co-ordinate our kills in the two group cross targeting system one of the targets will survive and the other probably will unless the mafia choose to kill them. The mafia don't know which group is targeted by the JK so choosing to kill one of the targets is risky for them. If both mafia are in the same group that might make them choose to kill their target as it's less likely for them to have the JK in their group but I personally wouldn't. The chance of both mafia being in the same group is 3/7 so it's not too unlikely.

Spoiler: Maths

Chance for mafia to both be in the same group is 1 - (chance only 1 mafia in a group)
2x6x5x4/3! = 40
Number of groups
8x7x6x5/4! = 70
1-4/7 = 3/7

Having done all this I think the two groups option works well to keep people alive but doesn't give us that much information on anyone's roles if that's what we're going for.

[Elements]

Tl;dr
Having done all this I think the two groups option works well to keep people alive but doesn't give us that much information on anyone's roles if that's what we're going for.

[Elements]

I don't deserve to be in the same town as elements

nah, I just did some maths
you totally deserve to be here <3

[Elements]

pffft, wish I knew
I've done more mech spec than scum hunting so far so I think we should try that for a few das seeing as we have 7 left

[Elements]

Someone has too much freetime

[Elements]

Did you ever do it before Elements? On what game?

Not as far as I remember.
As for my play style changing, I took a couple of years break and now I've come back my playstyle has just changed *shrug*
Also I'm a they/she now :3

[Elements]

Grandpa, you are probably the least subtle person I have ever met

[Elements]

It's just a thing, not good or bad

[Elements]

VOTE: Freedom

[Elements]

is the mod lurking for a pagetop....

[Elements]

not if i get there first!

[Elements]

[Elements]

vander looks way better than freedom nd enchat fwiw

i think we should investigate it like this since enchant is also someone in interest.

im gonna group a town core with one common suspect in each group so i will group my bottom scumreads .

group a - scoloisis, elements, grandpa, galron
group b - gimli, vander, tabibitos, enchant

group a target enchant
group b target galron

how does everyone think of this? IF we do choose to elim freeedom during the day.

Why are the groups targeting scum reads when we're more likely to protect than kill?

[Elements]

how will that work then? groups need to choose their town core? that wouldn't make sense

group a - scoloisis, elements, enchant, galron
group b - gimli, vander, tabibitos, gandpa

group a targets grandpa
group b targets elements

[Elements]

how will that work then? groups need to choose their town core? that wouldn't make sense

group a - scoloisis, elements, enchant, galron
group b - gimli, vander, tabibitos, gandpa

group a targets grandpa
group b targets elements

Is anyone opposed to this?
If we end up liking someone other than freedom just replace their name with freedom's in the groupings

[Elements]

Targeting town reads guarantees one won't die and likely the other won't die. Scum probably won't kill either target because of the chance the JK is on them and then it's only a 9/35 chance to kill which are chances I'd take over just letting mafia pick me.

If we target scum, unless we choose both scum exactly the scum pair will know which of them is being targeted so the other can perform the kill. and there's only a 9/35 chance to kill one of them.

[Elements]

if we get scum eliminated day 1, co-ordinating night actions don't matter as they can't lose us the game in that scenario.

[Elements]

we can get more info from other night actions than 2 groups if we get scum today
killing a town read still decreases a poe and gives us probably the most info we can get from the 2 groups system

[Elements]

there are still 6 days left this phase, if you want an elim on Vanders why not push it?

[Elements]

how will that work then? groups need to choose their town core? that wouldn't make sense

group a - scoloisis, elements, enchant, galron
group b - gimli, vander, tabibitos, gandpa

group a targets grandpa
group b targets elements

Is anyone opposed to this?
If we end up liking someone other than freedom just replace their name with freedom's in the groupings

also elements, we are on the same level like I know exactly everything you are doing and why. im reading ur mind and im like 98% sure u know what I know.

right?

pretty sure yea

[Elements]

Alternatively we can do the targeting scumreads plan if we get a scum flip and do the targeting townreads plan if we get a town flip

wait elements what do u think of this? if the person we elim today flips scum then we go with my group selections and if the person we elim today flips town we go with yours?

does that make sense

and yes, I agree with Ander on this

[Elements]

I am gonna probably be around to effort his weekend

I don't like the current "plan"? It's basically my old plan and we found flaws on it right? Why are we doing it anyway if even elements math said it wasn't too good?

Did your plan protect conftown? Not really, right?

I think targeting townreads is worse than going no NAs. If we lim the JKer, or the doctor, our NAs have a 50% chance of killing our townreads (cpr and quack targeting opposing groups).

The plan is bad, I think.

Nurse inherits whoever we kill. We always have all doctor actions night 1

[Elements]

In every scenario going into night 1 we have a doctor, a weak doctor and a jk.
If we kill town today:
One of our targets will be protected.
The other target has a chance to be killed which gives us the most possible information from this NA coordination.
The only way to prevent the night kill is if we have both scum as the targets which I have 0 faith in us doing. And even then it's still a 50/50

If we flip scum today
Idc what we do with night actions. We have enough time to mess about a bit

[Elements]

Whatever we flip today, the best case scenario with the 2 group is 3 town deaths because that gives us a 50/50 on scum

[Elements]

If not straight up tells us who scum is

[Elements]

Alright. That makes sense.

So we're just waiting on tabibitos.

Yup
Ima UNVOTE: while we wait just in case

[Elements]

Can someone tell me what targeting scum reads achieves?

[Elements]

^if we flip town today

[Elements]

50% chance you doing good by targeting mafia alone.

2/6 chance to kill them.
1/6 chance to roleblock them.
1/6 chance to die if you are Weak.
2/6 chance to not do anything, or just heal them.

This doesn't take into account multiple people targeting the same player

[Elements]

Can someone tell me what targeting scum reads achieves?

I changing my mind, i target Elements.

I'm starting to think the two groups thing isn't a great idea at all

[Elements]

So you think we should all target different people?

[Elements]

If we get unlucky we can just lose if we vote out town today

[Elements]

So you think we should all target different people?

why not

I was thinking of looking at circular targeting mech wise so guess I'll do that this evening after work

[Elements]

Can someone tell me what targeting scum reads achieves?

I changing my mind, i target Elements.

So you think I'm scum?

[Elements]

Circular

[Elements]

Not vander or scoliosis?

[Elements]

I've spent 3 hours counting possible lose scenarios from circular targeting
I've gone over 2 of the 4 possible scum distributions and gotten that in 142 scenarios we just lose.
This is however out of a possible 17280. So about 0.8%.
Of the other 12960 I imagine there's a similar percentage chance.
So just for the sake of me doing more maths and to be overly cautious let's say there's a 1% chance we lose if we circular target if we flip town today.

[Elements]

I may or may not calculate the chance of killing scum by circular targeting tomorrow. But I can say that it's higher than the chance we lose but lower than the chance town die in the night.

[Elements]

*lower than the chance 3 town die in the night

[Elements]

BTW Happy birthday, Elements!

<3

elements pls my medical assistant, please help me

I'm probably not going to post for the rest of the day as 1) It's my birthday and 2) I've just tested +ve for covid so I'm busy feeling sorry for myself

[Elements]

I'm so sorry you spent so long scum casing me
But if people think I'm scummy does that mean you're will to have me as a target if we go for the two groups approach?...

[Elements]

This game is feeling almost too easy on the reading people side.
I have Gimli, Enchant, Grandpa, Tabibitos as pretty solid town reads and there are lots of crossing town reads within this group

[Elements]

@tabibitos, I know you said lets move on from mech stuff but is there a strategy you want to go for?

[Elements]

This game is feeling almost too easy on the reading people side.
I have Gimli, Enchant, Grandpa, Tabibitos as pretty solid town reads and there are lots of crossing town reads within this group

What about Vanders?

What about Vanders?

[Elements]

I'm so sorry you spent so long scum casing me

But if people think I'm scummy does that mean you're will to have me as a target if we go for the two groups approach?...

lol

are you feeling better, elements?

I'm feeling like I have a slight cold, but the test line was very faint so I'm worried the fun is only just starting

[Elements]

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I can compromise on Freedom though, just think Vanders or Elements is a bit more likely to flip scum than Freedom here for reasons explained.

- Aether

My biggest problem with the Vanderscamp wagon atm is that Freedom and Scoliosis are both voting there

[Elements]

why are you so eager to end the day?

[Elements]

even if I vote we still need a 5th (good setup btw)
I'll think of some groups

[Elements]

I'm comfortable taking a 1/8 chance to die. Seeing as Enchant and Tabibitos both scum me and Enchant wants to target me anyway \_('.')_/
So if Grandma is happy being targeted I say let's go with these.
I've tried to get the groups so there is as small a possible chance for either to have 2 scum in.

group a - scoloisis, elements, galron, gimli
group b - vander, enchant, tabibitos, grandma

group a targets grandpa
group b targets elements

[Elements]

if you wanna drag the day I'm fine with that as well

If there's nothing new or meaningful by the time someone else votes, I'll hammer

[Elements]

I want a flip and we shouldn't go over plans again, it's just dragging the day for too long. I trust the work elements did in the game and it's the plan that's being thrown around the most. I don't really trust tabibitos anyway, and its too late to out the nurse

Do you realize "Elem's plan" is basically my plan without outing the Nurse and the second group also protecting a town read?

I just wanted to say that. Now bye.

- Aether

Yes, it's exactly that

[Elements]

so my plan would be:

A) Nurse claims
B) Everyone except someone (?Enchant?) targets the Nurse (which guarantees she doesn't die I believe)
C) Enchant targets someone other than Nurse, Nurse targets Enchant
B) We eliminate either Freedom or Vanders today
- Aether

Nurse can die if enchant and Nurse are JK and either weak or doctor
Just putting that there because I'm enjoying the mech talk of this game. I like the plan but the Nurse isn't going to claim today.

[Elements]

ALSO HERE ARE THE GROUP ASSIGNMENTS

if FREEDOM flips

SCUM

FOLLOW THIS

group a - scoloisis, elements, grandpa, galron
group b - gimli, vander, tabibitos, enchant

group a target vander
group b target galron

if FREEDOM flips

TOWN

FOLLOW THIS

group a - scoloisis, elements, galron, gimli
group b - vander, enchant, tabibitos, grandpa

group a targets grandpa
group b targets elements

I second this

[Elements]

VOTE: Vander

[Elements]

No I'm sparticus!

[Elements]

GG everyone!
Thanks for running Pav!

[Elements]

Very much enjoyed playing with you all

[Elements]

Happy cake day Freedom!