Mini 539: Game over

[Incognito]

Or a cop for that matter.

[Ythill]

FTR, I had Justin tentatively pegged as the last scum when he killed Jester, not that it mattered 'cause dead men tell no tales.

You guys are goofy for thinking I'd give info with my "woot" post. In actuality, the only reason I posted "woot" instead of "bah" was because I'd died on purpose and so I figured "bah" was inappropriate.

Also... I suspected charter was the cop D1. My head was in my hands when Justin didn't kill him because I knew JP, kuribo, and SSK wouldn't read back for pre-replacement breadcrumbs.

C

an some

o

f the

p

eople who haven't posted yet post?

Oh well. Good game everyone. I've got to go to work now but sometime in the next couple of days I will, as promised, open a thread in Mafia Discussion for chatting about one-shot vig strategy.

[kuribo]

That's the problem with breadcrumbs--- people don't always pick up on them.

[Xtoxm]

That crumb is so vague I think it's an accident.

Kuribo - Had I a bit more time to convince you i'd have pointed out if I were scum you'd have been NKed. SSK had stated clear trust for me, you continuos doubt.

[kuribo]

That crumb is so vague I think it's an accident.

Kuribo - Had I a bit more time to convince you i'd have pointed out if I were scum you'd have been NKed. SSK had stated clear trust for me, you continuos doubt.

Nah, I would have just argued that you did it to throw me off.

[kuribo]

Ythill, how did you figure out that Claus was scum?

[Xtoxm]

Kuribo, how exactly did you find me scummy?

This is a recurring problem for me, quite a few times now i've been lynched in lylo, voting the right scum.

That's also why I was happy to be lynched one day, cos I thought if I made lylo i'd be lynched...

[Shteven]

Btw, was Ythill really one shot? when he was listed as simply Vigilante I somewhat panicked. Really I should have said nothing, but I let it get the better of me when I posted

@MOD: Ythill's role said vigilante, without mention of one-shot. Is it true he only had one shot, or could he kill multiple nights?

It's a legitimate question for either side to ask as they try to figure out an open setup, but I did mostly because I was curious if we had dodged multiple bullets coming on later nights.

Come to think of it, I also probably should have never mentioned there were 3 scum

[Xtoxm]

I assumed it was a normal Vig and Ythill was just being clever.

I thought nothing of that Ythill, from the start I assumed there were 3.

[Xtoxm]

Yeh, In the second replace Ythill with Stheven.

[Incognito]

Kuribo, how exactly did you find me scummy?

This is a recurring problem for me, quite a few times now i've been lynched in lylo, voting the right scum.

That's also why I was happy to be lynched one day, cos I thought if I made lylo i'd be lynched...

It's probably your playstyle. For example, the way you just voted Shteven but barely provided explanation. It just looked like you knew Shteven was scum not because you found him scummy but because you were scum with him and didn't mind bussing him at that point. When you're Xtoxm-town, I think you have a tendency to not explain the reason behind why you do things. Like your vote for JP in Lylo... you didn't explain what it was you found scummy about him, you just voted. You have to be more convincing and you can't assume people see things the way you do otherwise they'll always side against you.

[Justin Playfair]

Wow, a lot of commentary.

Shteven, thanks, but I really think it’s hard to find scum tells on me because I can’t quite figure out how to think as scum. Incognito quizzed me earlier about something I had done and I realized I wasn’t trying to be tricky when I handled it. I legitimately thought the things people were bringing up about Incognito were bs, so when I tried to blunt them I was acting as town. Likewise, when I was giving Ythill advice about how to play vig. It seemed really obvious to me that he should do certain things. Those things didn’t benefit scum, but they just seemed so obvious I had to say them. Same thing really with getting Hjallti lynched. A no-lynch was a bad idea for town. Favoring it was a scum tell. You just have to forget you’re scum for a little while.

In bizarro reverse land, Kuribo going after you was the one sequence I felt like I didn’t play basically the same way I would have if I was town. I would have gone after Kuribo much harder for his suspicions, because I didn’t think they were all that sound. But since I knew you were scum and I knew they were sound, I didn’t do it. That was the one sequence I was afraid of being called out on, which was why I covered it with the cop thing about Kuribo, which also, fortuitously enough, was true.

As for the kills:

After Shteven died my first goal was to make sure no scum hunting block developed. I could see the possibility of that with Kuribo and Jester. I killed Jester because I didn’t have a feel for Jester but felt sure Kuribo was a good player. Incognito had been my first choice, but he was too openly in my favor, and then claimed mason to boot, so I couldn’t take him. Ythill had already done me an incredible favor, not just by setting out conditions for me being scum that temporarily made it hard for anyone to come after me, but also suggesting me as a good candidate for investigation.

So on the morning after Shteven died I had a cop read on Kuribo, the two masons to whack the next two days, and Hjallti and Gorgon to get lynched before the finale with Xtoxm. Shteven had already suggested Xtoxm as the best candidate to try to keep around for a possible endgame, so I can’t claim credit for that.

Then Gorgon claims cop and I was absolutely certain I was dead. There was no percentage at all in Gorgon claiming cop at that point unless there was four scum in town, and who was really going to believe that? He was guaranteeing a loss by scum if he was scum, and then Incognito showed the game Nano had been in to boot. I was completely out of ideas. I defended Gorgon’s claim to some extent, because I felt I had to. But now I figured I was in a positionof having to push consecutive lynches on some combination of Hjallti and Xtoxm just to get to endgame. And once people started scum hunting that was going to be tough, especially with me pushing two bad lynches in a row. It would have been a complete circus trick for me to try to go after Kuribo at that point, way too obvious, and besides I needed him anyway.

Except the scum hunting never happened. In spite of the probabilities town got so sure that Gorgon was scum that even though I was able to convince them not to lynch him that first day they chose not to use that day for scum hunting at all. They ended up nearly random lynching, so I only had to poke Hjallti ever so gently to get the noose around his neck. And then (even though I had written up an eloquent defense of Gorgon, arguing that he shouldn’t be rushed to the rope—in case I needed to point to it the next day), Gorgon was lynched before I posted at all, and we were in lylo. And I got to get there clean, while Xtoxm was just filthy.

Worst moment was killing Incognito when I did. I would have much rather killed Mafia first, but Incognito would have picked up on it, Kuribo would have picked up on it, and I would have hung.

[Xtoxm]

Had we lynched Gorgon first i'd have pushed you a lot harder than my eventual "I don't who's lynched cos I think it's Gorgon".

[Incognito]

Xtoxm, you don't lynch a claimed cop during D3

or

D4 when you have the luxury of mislynching twice and still having the possibility of winning. Plain and simple. If Gorgon was still around after two mislynches on D5 then yes, lynch him. But not D3 or D4.

[Xtoxm]

Yeh...But his presence and my belief he had to be scum clouded/affected my views of other players...

[kuribo]

Wow, a lot of commentary.

Shteven, thanks, but I really think it’s hard to find scum tells on me because I can’t quite figure out how to think as scum. Incognito quizzed me earlier about something I had done and I realized I wasn’t trying to be tricky when I handled it. I legitimately thought the things people were bringing up about Incognito were bs, so when I tried to blunt them I was acting as town. Likewise, when I was giving Ythill advice about how to play vig. It seemed really obvious to me that he should do certain things. Those things didn’t benefit scum, but they just seemed so obvious I had to say them. Same thing really with getting Hjallti lynched. A no-lynch was a bad idea for town. Favoring it was a scum tell. You just have to forget you’re scum for a little while.

In bizarro reverse land, Kuribo going after you was the one sequence I felt like I didn’t play basically the same way I would have if I was town. I would have gone after Kuribo much harder for his suspicions, because I didn’t think they were all that sound. But since I knew you were scum and I knew they were sound, I didn’t do it. That was the one sequence I was afraid of being called out on, which was why I covered it with the cop thing about Kuribo, which also, fortuitously enough, was true.

As for the kills:

After Shteven died my first goal was to make sure no scum hunting block developed. I could see the possibility of that with Kuribo and Jester. I killed Jester because I didn’t have a feel for Jester but felt sure Kuribo was a good player. Incognito had been my first choice, but he was too openly in my favor, and then claimed mason to boot, so I couldn’t take him. Ythill had already done me an incredible favor, not just by setting out conditions for me being scum that temporarily made it hard for anyone to come after me, but also suggesting me as a good candidate for investigation.

So on the morning after Shteven died I had a cop read on Kuribo, the two masons to whack the next two days, and Hjallti and Gorgon to get lynched before the finale with Xtoxm. Shteven had already suggested Xtoxm as the best candidate to try to keep around for a possible endgame, so I can’t claim credit for that.

Then Gorgon claims cop and I was absolutely certain I was dead. There was no percentage at all in Gorgon claiming cop at that point unless there was four scum in town, and who was really going to believe that? He was guaranteeing a loss by scum if he was scum, and then Incognito showed the game Nano had been in to boot. I was completely out of ideas. I defended Gorgon’s claim to some extent, because I felt I had to. But now I figured I was in a positionof having to push consecutive lynches on some combination of Hjallti and Xtoxm just to get to endgame. And once people started scum hunting that was going to be tough, especially with me pushing two bad lynches in a row. It would have been a complete circus trick for me to try to go after Kuribo at that point, way too obvious, and besides I needed him anyway.

Except the scum hunting never happened. In spite of the probabilities town got so sure that Gorgon was scum that even though I was able to convince them not to lynch him that first day they chose not to use that day for scum hunting at all. They ended up nearly random lynching, so I only had to poke Hjallti ever so gently to get the noose around his neck. And then (even though I had written up an eloquent defense of Gorgon, arguing that he shouldn’t be rushed to the rope—in case I needed to point to it the next day), Gorgon was lynched before I posted at all, and we were in lylo. And I got to get there clean, while Xtoxm was just filthy.

Worst moment was killing Incognito when I did. I would have much rather killed Mafia first, but Incognito would have picked up on it, Kuribo would have picked up on it, and I would have hung.

So did you get scared when some of us were advocating you instead of Hjallti as the "random" lynch?

[kuribo]

And I might add that if Gorgon hadn't come back with an innocent result on you, I would have been less likely to think Xtoxm was the final scum.

Xtoxm, I explained during the course of the game why I thought you were scummy.

[Justin Playfair]

Xtoxm,

Not only that, but I wouldn't have had a chance to finally coax that innocent investigation out of Gorgon. Mind you, thanks to Incognito I was having to argue that we probably had a godfather by that point, but since no one else was, and since I still got the innocent, it didn't hurt. Especially with you being so kill crazy on Gorgon.

On the other hand, if you'd managed to bull through a lynch on Gorgon on the day he claimed I'm pretty sure it would have been you in the noose the next day. Now what would have happened after that, with Hjallti and Kuribo, is the question.

Kuribo,

Not scared, exactly, because until that point I didn't think there was any way I could win. When all the votes moved so quickly it certainly shocked me, but really, the way the day was starting to go, even though the votes were on me, was what gave me my first real hope. I figured I could move votes by resisting just a little bit, and with the way folks were acting at that point I figured that might be my ticket to a final three with you and Xtoxm.

I was most scared of you at that point, because of what you'd done with Shteven. But that was exactly what made it hard for me to believe you would ignore all the evidence in thread against Xtoxm to vote me in lylo. You might have taken that kind of chance earlier, while you had time to fix it, but with the game on the line I was sure you wouldn't take a flier on a gut feeling.

The really good players I've seen in this game tend to be sort of careful. It's why they're so dangerous. But in this case I thought I could use that against you. I never felt safe, though, until you cast that last vote. What you did with Shteven was just this side of supernatural, and even with as plainly scummy as Xtoxm was I never felt quite sure you wouldn't pull the same trick again.

[Xtoxm]

You say I was plainly scummy and played badly, JP, but I had you in the end and I was onto stheven before kuribo made his case against him.

What made you think I was scummy?

[Justin Playfair]

Xtoxm,

Not played badly. Played scummy. There's a difference. Your suspicions throughout the game were pretty darn good. But even as town you have to play some defense. And that's what you didn't do.

There was no percentage in pushing so hard against Gorgon after the claim. Not for town. Then there was really no percentage, once it became clear Gorgon wasn't going to get lynched that day, in just saying we need to lynch somebody instead of jumping back into scum hunting.

You switched your view on me at the most convenient time for me, right after I had argued for Gorgon's life. Put together with your view on Gorgon as opposed to your easy acceptance of the earlier claims and your previous consistently townie read on me, that was made to order.

Remember, the rest of us are outside of you looking in. What we saw was Xtoxm going ballistic to lynch Gorgon after he claimed. Xtoxm not caring to scum hunt that day, just wanting to get it out of the way and get to tomorrow to lynch Gorgon. Xtoxm voting Gorgon before Gorgon even got to report his investigation. Gorgon turning out to be the cop. Xtoxm coming back the next morning and voting one of two unconfirmed townies with his first post, then asking the other, without providing evidence, to hammer him. By the way, that was a total misread on Incognito's personality, too. Incognito had already shown he was not the kind of guy who enjoyed being told what to think or do.

From the outside looking in these are the behaviors of scum. If Kuribo and my positions had been reversed I would have had to vote for you, too. In lylo you just can't afford to skip all that stuff above, because most of the time you will lose by doing it.

Only one part of Mafia is identifying scum. The rest is winning the votes of others onto your side and presenting yourself in a way that keeps you from being a target. The good thing for you is for most people it's the identifying scum that's the hard part. The rest is easy once you get the hang of it.

[Xtoxm]

Ok, thanks. Not looking scummy is something i've been told on multiple occasions I gotta work on.

[Nanosauromo]

To confirm, yes Ythill was a one-shot vigilante.

[Xtoxm]

Oh...

[Hjallti]

Xtoxm, you are not the only one that has to work on that part of the game (not looking scummy)...

[Claus]

Come to think of it, I also probably should have never mentioned there were 3 scum

Meh. I always assume 3 scum 9 townies until proven contrary. That IS the most common Mini normal setup.

Kuribo:

I think that Ythill killed me not as much as because he thought I was scum, as because my death would reveal the most information about most players, since I had a very strong opinion of a lot of players.

If he did it for the odds, like I think he did, that was a really brilliant vigging.