Mini 551- Mod Abandoned

[Korts]

Hey, guys. Family matters resolved sooner than I thought, so here I am. I'm coming back a bit later to write s'more.

[jerubbaal]

Read the thread. Unless Korts and CES actually figured out what the scenario was before it was revealed (the chances of which are almost absolutely zero), they're town. They basically counter-claimed after lovo revealed his role, which is absolutely something that scum would not do. I'm very willing to stake this game on them being town.

Similarly, after we lynch SF, I'll be confirmed. Scum bussing scum at this point is pretty much auto-lose for them, so it's ridiculous to consider.

So saying we will have 3 confirmed townies is not overstating the situation. I'm willing to read people, take the information we have in the thread and draw conclusions. That's kinda, ya know, playing mafia. Maybe you should try, instead of just barning everything someone else says in this thread.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Maybe you should try, instead of just barning everything someone else says in this thread.

I completely agree with this.

[Khelvaster]

Battle Mage will be replacing xylthixm. He'll post in 2 or 3 days--he's busy atm.

[SensFan]

he's busy atm.

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[Khelvaster]

he's busy atm.

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He had some IRL stuff to deal with, I'm guessing. Anyway, I am replacing now to show that a replacement has been found and that the game can go on without any doubts about a missing player.

[ting =)]

Jeru, is right.

If

we have three confirmed town, 2 scum, and the ability to block nk, it's an auto town win. So, best case scenario for lynching SF is a win.

But you're not seeing, that if we lynch you, best case scenario is a confirmed cop and the ability to block nk. It's also an auto win at best case.

Convince me with something else, because at worse case if we lynch SF, we're trading a cop for a scum, which is

bad

. Worse case if we lynch you is we're trading one roleblocker for one scum, which is

good

.

I'd also like an answer to:

COP DOES NOT HELP A TOWN WIN HERE!!!

Why?

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Scum bussing scum at this point is pretty much auto-lose for them, so it's ridiculous to consider.

No, I considered that, scum bussing scum would be the worse thing possible for us. Especially since you just said:

Similarly, after we lynch SF, I'll be confirmed.

and you've just been calling yourself confirmed town. If we lynch one of you who manages to turn up scum, since it'd be an 'auto win' we'd be pretty much putting the game into your hands or SF's hands, which would be disastrous if you're both scum.

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I'm willing to read people, take the information we have in the thread and draw conclusions. That's kinda, ya know, playing mafia. Maybe you should try, instead of just barning everything someone else says in this thread.

Honestly, being snarky isn't going to help you.

If

you were scum, this is exactly what we'd expect you to do - try and trade yourself off for a cop before dying, and belittling people isn't going to help you convince them.

If

SF is scum, this is also what I'd expect him to be doing, try and trade himself off for one other person before he's lynched. Which is why I'm asking you questions instead of just voting.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

I'd also like an answer to:

COP DOES NOT HELP A TOWN WIN HERE!!!

Why?

Because the cop will be blocked every night.

Say that if SF really was the cop. The mafia would know this, and they likely have a roleblocker too. It's really unlikely SF wasn't blocked last night to begin with, let alone that he'll be able to investigate any more this game when Jeru turns up scum.

[ting =)]

The mafia would know this, and they likely have a roleblocker too.

Why do you say this? Do you think it likely that all the players, town and scum, are roleblockers?

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Also:

SF first called guilty on Joubert. Then you asked:

Is this your result?

and then:

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Hmm.. That's much more likely to me, at least.

I want to know why you think SF having a guilty on Jeru was more likely than SF having a guilty on Joubert. It's the same post I brought up last time, but different question.

[jerubbaal]

I do actually appreciate your willingness to ask questions, ting. The snarkiness was directed at Joubert, who has been supremely unhelpful, especially after tanking our day 1 when we already had the scum nailed. Seriously, his play this game has been so bad it's difficult to imagine that it's not deliberate.

@CES. If the chain thing works the same way for cops as it does for kills, then theoretically a cop would be able to investigate. As much as I wish this was a point against lynching me, it's not.

@ting - Cop does not help a town win because we pretty much auto-win if we lynch the scum (SF) here. The cop is redundant. Yes, there's the potential to win with more townies alive, but in the end, that doesn't matter at all. We all win together. There is absolutely no difference in the value of having a confirmed townie and having a confirmed cop at this point.

SF can't be bussing me because it would be suicide for him. Even if he were to manage to produce accurate results for his investigation this time (by bussing me), he could not continue to do so in the future. The only way scum win this scenario is by keeping their numbers high and playing this like nightless. If SF were bussing me, he'd be doing the exact opposite, ensuring a dead scum and placing himself in a position he cannot support. No chance.

You're not placing the game in my hands, you're placing it in the hands of the confirmed townies, who would be myself, CES, and Korts (if he's still here). And we'll still be trying to lynch scum first, so the burden of analysis falls on everyone.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

No matter which of SF and jerub we lynch (first), we'll get rid of a scum. If we can then successfully lock down the rest of the scum, and they have two left, town pretty much wins, just as jerub says. So if we've got the setup correctly figured out, we win. With that in mind, I'm thinking of the scenario where we're missing something (block immunity, mind control, whatever), and I'd rather have a pretty-much-confirmed cop than a pretty-much-confirmed-townie as best case scenario.

Also, I'd like to state for the record that I don't like this talk about "confirmed" townies. Nobody is confirmed as far as I'm concerned, they just look like unlikely scum.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

I want to know why you think SF having a guilty on Jeru was more likely than SF having a guilty on Joubert. It's the same post I brought up last time, but different question.

Because I thought it was more likely SF targeted Jerubbaal than Joubert, if he was a cop. Not necessarily because I think Jerubbaal is more likely to be scum, although I had a pretty townish read on Joubert yesterday.

[ting =)]

The cop is redundant.

You might as well call having 3 confirmed townies redundant. 'Well, we already auto-win with a confirmed cop, there's no point having 3 confirmed townies.' Also, I'm with cave, unkillable confirmed cop>3 confirmed townies for best case scenario. They're both autowins, but a cop is in no way unhelpful.

You have me convinced on SF not bussing you. At most he'll only get in two extra kills, a mislynch and a nightkill. That wouldn't help scum.

you're placing it in the hands of the confirmed townies, who would be myself, CES, and Korts (if he's still here).

The autowin with 3 townies is only true

if

you three are all actually confirmed townies. When we make plans for blocking, you'll all be treated as confirmed, and if one of you are actually scum, it'd be disastrous.

and they have two left, town pretty much wins, just as jerub says.

Not quite I think. Jeru's plan would work because confirmed townies outnumber scum in his scenario (3>2). With only 2 confirmed townies and 2 scum, the scum could hypothetically still win. It's not an auto win, but yes, we'd have really good odds anyway.

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Jeru, SF: who do you two think are the three people most likely to be scum?

[jerubbaal]

SF, of course, my best guess for the other two is Xyl and Joubert.

[Korts]

Arlight, I'm here. Sorry for lag, RL was getting a bit thick. I'm still saying we should lynch jerubbaal, but if the majority is for lynching SF, I can see where it's a good scenario for town. In fact, almost anything along the lines of a jeru/SF lynch is good for town, so you decide. It's time we decided on something, though.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

and they have two left, town pretty much wins, just as jerub says.

Not quite I think. Jeru's plan would work because confirmed townies outnumber scum in his scenario (3>2). With only 2 confirmed townies and 2 scum, the scum could hypothetically still win. It's not an auto win, but yes, we'd have really good odds anyway.

Hmm, you're right, I didn't quite think that through... My reasoning was that it would be very easy to figure out which pair was doing the killing if we have two confirmeds to block people with, but there would be enough unknown factors to make it less than a sure thing. We do still have very good odds though.

My vote is still on a jerub lynch. As soon as everyone has confirmed they know what to do at night, I say we lynch him and get the game moving forward again.

[jerubbaal]

Sigh, the point I've been trying to make is that the payoff for either my lynch or SF's lynch is the exact same. If we choose right, we win. Even if we don't, there still a good chance we win. Lynching me first is fine, I guess, but I feel like such an idiot for actually letting this bozo get someone lynched with his terrible claim. Especially the way all this dialogue sounds - "Oh well, I guess we'll just lynch Jer first, and then go lynch SF after he comes up town." It's like you all know what's going to happen, but you're still determined to go through with it. This is really terrible play.

[Korts]

Yet you emphasise that you're letting go. I'd lynch you now even if that wasn't the plan anyway.

[SensFan]

If we choose right, we win.

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[jerubbaal]

I think you guys are idiots, but you can't convince someone who won't actually read the thread and bought his idiotic claim day 1. You'll do anything to save face.

[Khelvaster]

Meanwhile, Battle Mage still hasn't posted--I just checked with him to see whether he still wants to play this game.

[Imat]

Sorry for inactivity, lost internet for the past week. Although even before that I really had nothing to say - Much of what we're doing is going in circles. Nevertheless, I'll read over what I missed and give my opinions on anything that sparks my interest.

[Joubert]

My impression on Jerub has not changed. It just seems his life has more value. According to the actual hypothesis, we should try to confirm the Cop's claim, since the Cop has more value than a normal Townie. If we lose the Cop definitively, the chances of winning are not zero, but they are diminished...

[Battle Mage]

Meanwhile, Battle Mage still hasn't posted--I just checked with him to see whether he still wants to play this game.

yep ok, after much coaxing, i am well and truly in! I'll be back tomorrow with something useful, relevant, and if you're lucky, maybe even accurate!

BM

[Khelvaster]

Meanwhile, Battle Mage still hasn't posted--I just checked with him to see whether he still wants to play this game.

yep ok, after much coaxing, i am well and truly in! I'll be back tomorrow with something useful, relevant, and if you're lucky, maybe even accurate!

BM

It's tomorrow