Mini 578 - Mistery at Montescuro - Game Over!

[Coron]

Just checking in from the prod. Will post in a couple days, this week's been hell.

It's been 4 days we're waiting.

Mod: Could you prod JamesThePhox

[Guardian]

Hmm, at first when I read Guardian's post where he says:

I hate mafia, because I have to convince people of stuff I'm pretty sure about. Why can't you just trust my motives and judgment? "

I was like wow, guardian must be cop and he checked out dasquian N0.

Had I cop'd dasquian, I'd have gotten a guilty result? Thanks for that tip :D.

But then, this was a day start game. My first reaction was, wtf is guardian talking about. I actually started quoting Guardian's original post regarding his suspicion of Dasquian with an intent to argue why his post was scummy. But upon a re-read, it doesn't look that scummy. It actually sounds pretty reasonable.

Sweet, being suspicious of Dasquian is reasonable! Cuz he's your scumbuddy right?

Guardian, your main argument for suspecting Dasquian seems to be that he's been targeting weak preys all day. His initial suspicion of VH, you said, came to an end because he was replaced by a "good player". And now he's focusing on me.

Well put.

But then, aren't most people who are voting for me in the same category as Dasquian? What differentiates Dasquian from, say Macavenger? I think Macavenger is the main person who's been behind my wagon because I am not contributing much to this game.

Yeah but, Macdaddy has the significant difference that he's also been focusing on more difficult to read targets, like me for example. And then there's the fact that Mac's probably town, so, ya know, there goes that.

Post 234, where he asks if I prefer Near or Pyro, REEKS like he knows ONE of them is scum, and wants to catch me in a trap later when one of them turns up as scum.

I think you are reading too much into this. But if this was true, then he probably hoped that you say you prefer Pyro lynch over me, for reason obvious to me (that is, if Dasquian is indeed scum).

Hm so uh, you are denying that, if Dasquian is scum you are his scum partner? Remember, if you lie in answering this question we'll have to lynch you.

Also, what do you think about post 246 where Dasquian explains reasons for voting me.

I find it similar to 263 and a not unreasonable basis for finding you suspicious.

Current readouts give a projection of 68.3% likelihood that Near is being bus'd by Dasquian, and Near just tried to get me to be suspicious of Macavager instead of Dasquian and himself, hoping I'd be likely to OMGUS Macavager.

Pro-tip: If you're an investigative role, target Yosarian2 night 1. He's such a tricky bastard. If this causes the scum to kill him, I would not be that displeased. He's a great scum hunter but, his ability to look pro-town when he's a scumbag are of a caliber I've seen in only a few players.

[Dasquian]

So you're going to vote Near then, right? Given you think that there's a 68.3% chance I'm bussing him, it follows that you think we're both scum. Near has the bigger bandwagon.

[Near]

I was like wow, guardian must be cop and he checked out dasquian N0.

Had I cop'd dasquian, I'd have gotten a guilty result? Thanks for that tip .

So you seem to think I made a slip here. Don't you think my saying this was too deliberate to be a slip?

But then, this was a day start game. My first reaction was, wtf is guardian talking about. I actually started quoting Guardian's original post regarding his suspicion of Dasquian with an intent to argue why his post was scummy. But upon a re-read, it doesn't look that scummy. It actually sounds pretty reasonable.

Sweet, being suspicious of Dasquian is reasonable! Cuz he's your scumbuddy right?

Your reasoning for suspecting Dasquian was reasonable.

But then, aren't most people who are voting for me in the same category as Dasquian? What differentiates Dasquian from, say Macavenger? I think Macavenger is the main person who's been behind my wagon because I am not contributing much to this game.

Yeah but, Macdaddy has the significant difference that he's also been focusing on more

difficult to read targets, like me for example

. And then there's the fact that Mac's probably town, so, ya know, there goes that.

I thought the bolded part of your post makes you scummy. Can you guess why I thought so? Also, what do you mean "And then there's the fact that Mac's probably town"?

Post 234, where he asks if I prefer Near or Pyro, REEKS like he knows ONE of them is scum, and wants to catch me in a trap later when one of them turns up as scum.

I think you are reading too much into this. But if this was true, then he probably hoped that you say you prefer Pyro lynch over me, for reason obvious to me (that is, if Dasquian is indeed scum).

Hm so uh, you are denying that, if Dasquian is scum you are his scum partner? Remember, if you lie in answering this question we'll have to lynch you.

I'm simply denying that I am a scum, which goes without saying. What did you mean by "if you lie in answering this question we'll have to lynch you"? What are you saying! Did you think, if I were a scum, I would fall for this trap? Anyway, even if I were a scum and Dasquian was my scum partner, I might even say Dasquian was my partner to make it look like he's not. This is wifom and won't provide any information even if I were to turn scum when lynched.

Also, what do you think about post 246 where Dasquian explains reasons for voting me.

I find it similar to 263 and a not unreasonable basis for finding you suspicious.

Current readouts give a projection of 68.3% likelihood that Near is being bus'd by Dasquian, and Near just tried to get me to be suspicious of Macavager instead of Dasquian and himself, hoping I'd be likely to OMGUS Macavager.

While I can understand the reasoning behind your post where you explain your suspicion for Dasquin, I do not agree with the extent you seem to think Dasquin is scummy.

[Claus]

Mod: Could you prod JamesThePhox

Naaah. It has been more than 10 days since he posted anything of substance. I think I'll replace him instead.

... heads off to the replacement queue.

[Singing Librarian]

I find these two statements of Guardian's from the same post quite fascinating.

1:

Why can't you just trust my motives and judgment?

Because we're playing Mafia.

You'd be surprised at how many games I'd finished and realized that we'd have won had the town just trusted me implicitly.

2:

I'm tired of playing your everyone-has-to-justify-everything-to-me game.

You're not playing the right game. I'm playing the everyone-has-to-justify-everything-to-me-and the-rest-of-the-town game, and I think that's a great game to play in mafia, leads to successful lynches, and town wins.

So... You're essentially saying that everyone has to justify everything to everyone, except you, who does not have to justify things and should be trusted implicitly? Double standards much?

---

In other news:

I was like wow, guardian must be cop and he checked out dasquian N0.

Had I cop'd dasquian, I'd have gotten a guilty result? Thanks for that tip .

So you seem to think I made a slip here.

Don't you think my saying this was too deliberate to be a slip?

Urgh. Don't you think that the sentence in bold is the most WIFOM-y sentence in the entire game? If your aim was to make yourself seem even more suspicious, then Mr Near, you have succeeded admirably.

[Guardian]

I was like wow, guardian must be cop and he checked out dasquian N0.

Had I cop'd dasquian, I'd have gotten a guilty result? Thanks for that tip :D.

So you seem to think I made a slip here. Don't you think my saying this was too deliberate to be a slip?

Librarian responded to this already. WIFOM much?

Your reasoning for suspecting Dasquian was reasonable.

Sweet, being suspicious of Dasquian is reasonable! Cuz he's your scumbuddy right?

But then, aren't most people who are voting for me in the same category as Dasquian? What differentiates Dasquian from, say Macavenger? I think Macavenger is the main person who's been behind my wagon because I am not contributing much to this game.

Yeah but, Macdaddy has the significant difference that he's also been focusing on more

difficult to read targets, like me for example

. And then there's the fact that Mac's probably town, so, ya know, there goes that.

I thought the bolded part of your post makes you scummy. Can you guess why I thought so?

Because you think I'm an easy target? I think the response you wanted was "because I am calling myself a difficult to read target." But I don't see anything suspicious about that in and of itself. The only thing that possibly could make me suspicious is if I am in fact a piss-easy to read target, and am trying to lie about how easy to suspect I am. I'd love for you to comment further about this.

Also, what do you mean "And then there's the fact that Mac's probably town"?

I think it is fairly obvious what I mean. I am of the mindset that Macavenger is probably town.

Post 234, where he asks if I prefer Near or Pyro, REEKS like he knows ONE of them is scum, and wants to catch me in a trap later when one of them turns up as scum.

I think you are reading too much into this. But if this was true, then he probably hoped that you say you prefer Pyro lynch over me, for reason obvious to me (that is, if Dasquian is indeed scum).

Hm so uh, you are denying that, if Dasquian is scum you are his scum partner? Remember, if you lie in answering this question we'll have to lynch you.

I'm simply denying that I am a scum, which goes without saying. What did you mean by "if you lie in answering this question we'll have to lynch you"? What are you saying! Did you think, if I were a scum, I would fall for this trap?

I think your response to the question might have been informative. Not sure it was.

Anyway, even if I were a scum and Dasquian was my scum partner, I might even say Dasquian was my partner to make it look like he's not. This is wifom and won't provide any information even if I were to turn scum when lynched.

While I can understand the reasoning behind your post where you explain your suspicion for Dasquin, I do not agree with the extent you seem to think Dasquin is scummy.

Okay, you are milking the Dasquian connection a *BIT* too much for my liking.

You need to be focused on your own defense right now, and trying to convince us who is more likely to be scum than you. You're almost at the point of no return from my perspective; I'd love it if your next post was a case on someone else, saying why they are a compelling lynch target as opposed to you.

[Guardian]

So you're going to vote Near then, right? Given you think that there's a 68.3% chance I'm bussing him, it follows that you think we're both scum. Near has the bigger bandwagon.

I think so, Mr. Duck.

I want to think it over and be 99% resolved to it; getting claims and then not lynching in mafia is usually really poor.

[Guardian]

Double standards much?

Yes.

[Joudas]

So you're going to vote Near then, right? Given you think that there's a 68.3% chance I'm bussing him, it follows that you think we're both scum. Near has the bigger bandwagon.

I don't like this. This almost has a hint of "Vote Near first, because then you'll see he's town and since you think I'm bussing him, you'll (incorrectly) assume you were wrong and won't jump to the conclusion that I'm town, too."

He sounds somewhat confident that once Near is lynched he won't come up scum, and there's only one way he could know that.

FoS: Dasquian

[Guardian]

Hm. I read it that Dasquian is desperately trying to cut Near off before he makes things even harder for Dasquian, but Joudas's reasoning is viable as well.

Either way, I still feel strongly that Dasquian is scum. Near is approaching that level for me, though, and I think his lynch would be incredibly informative.

[Coron]

++ to suspicion of Joudas, as he shows absolutely no consistency in who he thinks is scum, other than avoid the other people I think are scum, in the past like 3 days he called me and Guardian scum and then completely flip flopped into agreeing with Guardian and all this time leaving his vote on Near, even after his last post where he said it was scum's plan go get Near lynched. I mean, this is nonsensical.

also,

Mod: could you prod SensFan

[Coron]

Mod: could you also prod Pyrodwarf

The participation by about half the people here is good, but the other half has disappeared.

[Joudas]

in the past like 3 days he called me and Guardian scum

I'm still thinking Guardian might be scum. I'm thinking if he turns up scum, you might be, too, and will re-examine that if the time comes.

and then completely flip flopped into agreeing with Guardian

Er, what? Are you referring to my finding something Dasquian said to be suspicious? As Guardian stated, he read it entirely differently then I did - how is that me agreeing with him?

and all this time leaving his vote on Near, even after his last post where he said it was scum's plan go get Near lynched.

No, what I said was:

He sounds somewhat confident that once Near is lynched he won't come up scum, and there's only one way he could know that.

I'm actually

disagreeing

with Guardian - I don't think Dasquian is bussing Near. If anything, he's using him in a desperate bid to vindicate himself. On the other hand, my original reason for voting Near (lack of activity, generally lacking play) hasn't been rectified either. If Near turns up scum, I wouldn't take that as a reason to lynch Dasquian, or vice versa.

[Claus]

Pyrodwarf has been prodded. I'm looking for a possible Sensfan replacement.

[Yosarian2]

Post 234, where he asks if I prefer Near or Pyro, REEKS like he knows ONE of them is scum, and wants to catch me in a trap later when one of them turns up as scum.

I think you are reading too much into this. But if this was true, then he probably hoped that you say you prefer Pyro lynch over me, for reason obvious to me (that is, if Dasquian is indeed scum).

I'm...confused by this comment. Why would hypothetical dasquin-scum be hoping Guardian wants to lynch you instead of Pyro, Near?

[Guardian]

Nice question Yosarian2.

[Coron]

in the past like 3 days he called me and Guardian scum

I'm still thinking Guardian might be scum. I'm thinking if he turns up scum, you might be, too, and will re-examine that if the time comes.

and then completely flip flopped into agreeing with Guardian

Er, what? Are you referring to my finding something Dasquian said to be suspicious? As Guardian stated, he read it entirely differently then I did - how is that me agreeing with him?

so you think Dasquian is scum completely separately from thinking that Guardian and I are scum? Or do you think that Guardian poined out his scumbuddy? Honestly if Dasquian is scum I do not see it as very likely that Guardian is also scum, unless of course one of them is an SK. The point is your two views of who is scummy doesn't really mesh up very well.

and all this time leaving his vote on Near, even after his last post where he said it was scum's plan go get Near lynched.

No, what I said was:

He sounds somewhat confident that once Near is lynched he won't come up scum, and there's only one way he could know that.

You missed the important part of your post anyway.

I don't like this. This almost has a hint of "Vote Near first, because then you'll see he's town and since you think I'm bussing him, you'll (incorrectly) assume you were wrong and

won't

jump to the conclusion that I'm town, too."

Er, the Won't in there I think is supposed to be a will, but you can correct me on that.
To me this is saying that Dasquian's plan is to get Near, who is town, lynched to help clear himself, and that Dasquian is scum... yet you're still voting Near. Somehow this does not sound at all protown...

[Dasquian]

So you're going to vote Near then, right? Given you think that there's a 68.3% chance I'm bussing him, it follows that you think we're both scum. Near has the bigger bandwagon.

I don't like this. This almost has a hint of "Vote Near first, because then you'll see he's town and since you think I'm bussing him, you'll (incorrectly) assume you were wrong and won't jump to the conclusion that I'm town, too."

Hm. I read it that Dasquian is desperately trying to cut Near off before he makes things even harder for Dasquian, but Joudas's reasoning is viable as well.

The real reason is that I wanted to point out Guardian's inconsistency in continuing to vote me while saying that he thinks both I

and

Near are scum. If he thinks we're both scum, it follows that he should put his vote on the one more likely to be lynched, and revisit his case on me tomorrow.

I highlighted this because I think there is a non-zero chance that Guardian is dancing a merry dance with scumbuddy Near, and I wanted to see how this particular invitation to bus his own partner would go down. It's something for later, if my hunch turns out to be anywhere close to on target.

[Joudas]

so you think Dasquian is scum completely separately from thinking that Guardian and I are scum? Or do you think that Guardian poined out his scumbuddy? Honestly if Dasquian is scum I do not see it as very likely that Guardian is also scum, unless of course one of them is an SK. The point is your two views of who is scummy doesn't really mesh up very well.

The two are separate, unrelated theories. I don't suggest that I'm some omnipotent source of scummer knowledge, and as such have no problem with presenting multiple theories with the foreknowledge that at least 1 of them is incorrect. The point of doing so is to generate discussion about them such that other people can offer their input and insight, to determine which, if either, is more likely to be accurate. I do not understand what you find odd about this.

Er, the Won't in there I think is supposed to be a will, but you can correct me on that.
To me this is saying that Dasquian's plan is to get Near, who is town, lynched to help clear himself, and that Dasquian is scum... yet you're still voting Near. Somehow this does not sound at all protown...

I changed the wording on that line before posting and evidently botched it a bit, but you (clearly) know what I meant.

What I'm saying is that I have a few different, unrelated theories about who the scum might be.

1) Guardian might be scum, possibly with Coron.
2) Dasquian might be scum, trying to buddy with Near (a townie) and push the blame onto Near such that when Near is lynched, he will come up town and make Dasquian look more townish.
3) Near might be scum, for reasons detailed when I voted him.

I'm throwing out suggestions for discussion. Right now, I'm going with #3 and leaving my vote on Near as a policy / pressure vote if nothing else, until we see some kind of improvement in his posting. Because I'm presenting multiple possibilities, your argument could be played regardless of which of them I was going with.

If I vote for Near, I'm clearly scum because Dasquian might be trying to get him lynched. If I vote Dasquian, I'm clearly scum because Guardian might be scum trying to get Dasquian lynched and if I vote Guardian, I'm clearly scum siding with Dasquian because Guardian is "on to him".

So really, regardless of who is actually scum, you can use this to make me look scummy regardless of who I vote for. That doesn't really prove or accomplish much.

[Near]

I'm...confused by this comment. Why would hypothetical dasquin-scum be hoping Guardian wants to lynch you instead of Pyro, Near?

Because if Dasquin knows one of Near or Pyro is scum, then he must be scum buddy with either me or Pyro. For reason obvious to me, the only possibility is Dasquin being scum buddy with Pyro. Therefore, Dasquin would hope that Guardian makes a mistake and hope Guardian pushes for my lynch.

[Near]

In other news:

I was like wow, guardian must be cop and he checked out dasquian N0.

Had I cop'd dasquian, I'd have gotten a guilty result? Thanks for that tip .

So you seem to think I made a slip here.

Don't you think my saying this was too deliberate to be a slip?

Urgh. Don't you think that the sentence in bold is the most WIFOM-y sentence in the entire game? If your aim was to make yourself seem even more suspicious, then Mr Near, you have succeeded admirably.

This was the point of my argument . That is, if I was deliberate and careful, this would be WIFOM which would nullify what Guardian said initially: "Had I cop'd dasquian, I'd have gotten a guilty result? Thanks for that tip ."

[PyroDwarf]

sorry guys, work is crazy, i had thought that i posted, but i was in a hurry, i must have hit preview instead of submit... tonight ill give content, im on lunch right now, so no time.

[Macavenger]

You'd be surprised at how many games I'd finished and realized that we'd have won had the town just trusted me implicitly.

You'd also be surprised at the shockingly few times that doing so would have switched a town-win to a town loss;

You're the one who's been spouting off about how using meta is bad this game, mister.

I'm also totally confused by post 301. Despite seeing several things in it I shouldn't like (buddying with me, radical change of posting style, conclusion that duck = scum that I'm not sold on), I get hit with this overwhelming townvibe when I read it. Very confusing.

So you seem to think I made a slip here. Don't you think my saying this was too deliberate to be a slip?

Several people have already commented on this, but this is just so terrible it's worth bringing up again. It's like the opposite of the "too townie" fallacy: I'm so scummy I couldn't possibly be scum!

This was the point of my argument . That is, if I was deliberate and careful, this would be WIFOM which would nullify what Guardian said initially: "Had I cop'd dasquian, I'd have gotten a guilty result? Thanks for that tip ."

This seems to have been posted while I was writing the rest. So, you're claiming that you've made a WIFOM statement which somehow nullifies someone's argument now? Is there a reason this isn't a scummy crock of shit that I'm not seeing?

Yeah but, Mac has the significant difference that he's also been focusing on more

difficult to read targets, like me for example

. And then there's the fact that Mac's probably town, so, ya know, there goes that.

I thought the bolded part of your post makes you scummy. Can you guess why I thought so?

Difficult to read =/= scummy. In fact, difficult to read almost directly implies neutrality; if you can't read the person well they shouldn't be near the top or bottom of your scum list. It's not a good reason to lynch someone most of the time, better to pressure them and target them with investigative roles if any to try to read them better. Much as I disagree with some of Guardian's methods this game, he's certainly right that being opaque can be good for town if done in the right way. I'm feeling pretty neutral about Guardian currently, possibly with a slight scum leaning but moving back towards town. I go back and forth on him a lot this game though.

As a note about Guardian's investigative role tip though, while I agree with that based on what I've seen of Yosarian's reputation, I'd much rather being seeing investigative roles target Guardian tonight. Kinda have to wonder if that "tip" was to try to stop people from investigating him. Worried about what they might find Guardian?

I'm simply denying that I am a scum, which goes without saying. What did you mean by "if you lie in answering this question we'll have to lynch you"? What are you saying! Did you think, if I were a scum, I would fall for this trap? Anyway, even if I were a scum and Dasquian was my scum partner, I might even say Dasquian was my partner to make it look like he's not. This is wifom and won't provide any information even if I were to turn scum when lynched.

Talking about how you could WIFOM this stuff is different from actually doing it how?

So you're going to vote Near then, right? Given you think that there's a 68.3% chance I'm bussing him, it follows that you think we're both scum. Near has the bigger bandwagon.

Don't like this. I'm much happier with a Near lynch than a Dasquian lynch right now myself, but bandwagon size should not be a factor in determining your vote unless forced to make a lynch by deadline mechanics. At least, not for a townie.

++ to suspicion of Joudas, as he shows absolutely no consistency in who he thinks is scum, other than avoid the other people I think are scum, in the past like 3 days he called me and Guardian scum and then completely flip flopped into agreeing with Guardian and all this time leaving his vote on Near, even after his last post where he said it was scum's plan go get Near lynched. I mean, this is nonsensical.

Very much don't like this. Scumhunting on more targets than you think are scum is a very good thing, because chances are even the best townie isn't always going to be right about his first however many. There's nothing wrong with having multiple conflicting theories about who could be scum, as long as each theory is self-consistent. You can discard incorrect ones as alignments are revealed and continue pushing on the ones that still seem viable.

This is the second time I've seen Coron arguing that what I would consider normal scum hunting tactics are scummy, and I don't like it even a little bit, especially since he replaced someone who seemed to be trying to avoid attention.

Also, Joudas doesn't agree with Guardian. He comes to a similar conclusion as Guardian based on very different reasoning. Saying he agrees with Guardian could be suspicious twisting of what he's saying, in this context.

[Evilgorrilaz]

Not much time on my hand right now, will post something tomorrow