Nyktorion wrote:I do not really understand why you want the vig (if we have one) to come out. Wouldn't this just expose him to the mafia, if he was really a vig? And even him really being a vig is not that sure, since it would a good claim for an SK, too.
There's good reason to believe the vig was one-shot. Otherwise, why not act earlier in the game? RC was just as much of a dick at the start of night 1 as he was at the start of night 2, maybe more so. There was no reason why a multi-shot vig shouldn't have shot RC on night 1. A one-shot vig, though, would have held his bullet hoping for more evidence.
There's no SK, and anyone who argues that there might be is either misguided or is actively trying to screw with the town. See below for the argument.
Battousai wrote:There are also a few holes in this theory, though.
1) You could be scum, trying to get a townie to vote with you and then bandwagon with the other scum
2) There could be 2 scum, with another killing role (protown or anti-town)
True. A standard 12-person mini would normally have 3 scum in it. But we're not playing a standard game. We're playing a mountainous game, and mountainous games have 2 scum in them. Mizzy, Ectomancer (662), and Nyktorion think we have three. TNE doesn't want to talk about numbers. ROTN wants to sit on the fence (638). Battousai wants to everyone to proceed from the assumption there are three. Jester thinks... no, is
sure
there are two.
I posted my 641 curious about who would speculate about number of mafia. As a matter of fact, I
don't
think we're at lylo. If there are three scum in this game with no or few pro-town power roles (vig doesn't really count), then this game was badly unbalanced in favor of the scum from the start. To my knowledge, the scum have won every standard mountainous game (2 scum, 10 vanilla town) on this site to date. They don't need three scum, and they better not have three scum. They've got two.
The fact that scum have won every standard mountainous to date would have likely given Tar good reason to introduce a weak pro-town role to try to balance the set-up a bit. Thus, "mostly" mountainous. That's why I think we have a one-shot vig.
Battousai wrote:3) The scum are waiting until your case get's a little stronger (probably nearer deadline) to vote to seem less eager.
4) One of the scum could be less active, thus making his partner(s) hold out for later.
Therefore, these two points are invalid. Both scum could vote with me, and you still wouldn't be lynched.
Ectomancer wrote:We had 2 kills last night. I see 1 of 2 explanations; an SK or a Vig.
And with that said, this renders the rest of Nyktorion's argument about a SK, as well as Ecto's argument on the same, as non-sensical. There's no SK in this game. If there were, there'd be two possibilities:
a) we have one mafia and one SK, or to put it another way, two SKs. There was only one Night 1 kill, so we don't have this set-up.
b) we have two mafia and one SK, and this game is hideously unbalanced against the town. There was only one Night 1 kill, so we don't have this set-up, either.
Once more for the cheap seats: there's no SK. There's either a vig, or there's some role that essentially functioned as a vig, like an army veteran. It's
not
a bomb or a paranoid gun owner, because those roles kill the person that targets them with a night action. RC didn't have a night action.
Mizzy wrote:That is an interesting point, actually...I need to go re-find your case on Batt to see why you're voting him...you wouldn't happen to know what post it was, do you?
This isn't a single post. It's a feeling. ryan was doing a little bit of ad-homming, and didn't have the courage of his convictions. That's partly scum play, partly meta on my past experience with ryan, who even when he was totally wrong had the courage of his convictions. When Battousai took over, he stated suspicions about lots and lots of people (particularly in his 335), which I find a scum trait. His play since then has been... slippery. I admit I don't have much of a logically-constructed case, though. I had a more logical case against johoohno, and look where that got me.
Nyktorion wrote:Even though scum have not jumped at the opportunity yet (in case there is such an opportunity right now), I think that it would still be better for Jester to retract his vote and change it into a FOS for the time. "Holes" #3 and #4 pointed out by Battousai are still very possible.
Nope, they're not. See above.
