Mini 551- Mod Abandoned

[ting =)]

I still feel that a jeru lynch is the correct play, but I'm leaning towards SF being the better lynch. It's ridiculous how fast the lovo wagon grew. It's what I would expect if SF was scum. I don't have time now, but I'll go and make a comparison later between the people on the lovo wagon and the people on the SF wagon. I'm assuming the scum might be the people who switched from the SF wagon to the lovo wagon, but I don't have the time now to read up.

[jerubbaal]

I still feel that a jeru lynch is the correct play, but I'm leaning towards SF being the better lynch.

If SF is the better lynch, how the heck is lynching me still the correct play?

It's ridiculous how fast the lovo wagon grew. It's what I would expect if SF was scum. I don't have time now, but I'll go and make a comparison later between the people on the lovo wagon and the people on the SF wagon. I'm assuming the scum might be the people who switched from the SF wagon to the lovo wagon, but I don't have the time now to read up.

Agree completely. The behavior of the SF and lovo wagons were not normal. Considering the amazingly high likelihood of SF being scum, he should have been much easier to lynch, but it took forever, while lovo's lynch took no time at all. The big switchers were the ones who basically lynched lovo, Xyl and Joubert, and they're my best bets for scum right now. Xyl is worse, because he seems more intelligent, and Joubert's switch could just be a stupid noob thing, but I doubt it. It seems way too convenient.

Do go back and read day 1. Try to look at SF's posting apart from all the PR, and even without the PR, his behavior is scummy as hell. Similarly, I don't think Joubert has actually said anything even moderately original in this game. Barntastic. Xyl put some thought into his posting, but I think he thought his reasons for switching to lovo sounded better than they do. He definitely fits the smart scum MO.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

What I'm starting to wonder is if the seemingly best tactic (currently, IMO, lynching jerub and locking down the scum) will be possible to do in practice, what with inactivity and so on. >_<
Especially the locking down everybody part, since that very much depends on people being around and doing what they're supposed to.

[Joubert]

Do go back and read day 1. Try to look at SF's posting apart from all the PR, and even without the PR, his behavior is scummy as hell. Similarly, I don't think Joubert has actually said anything even moderately original in this game. Barntastic. Xyl put some thought into his posting, but I think he thought his reasons for switching to lovo sounded better than they do. He definitely fits the smart scum MO.

Jerubbaal, it seems you have something against me, but not relevantly related to the game or your defense. You say I don't say anything "original", which is largely discutable, by the way, but would you say so if I wanted to lynch SF instead? Looks like it's a rant out of spite because you are on the brink of being lynched...

[ting =)]

[quote="jeru] If SF is the better lynch, how the heck is lynching me still the correct play?[/quote]

We've gone back and forth on this. If we lynch correctly, it's an auto win either way, but:

...at worst case if we lynch SF, we're trading a cop for a scum, which is bad. Worst case if we lynch you is we're trading one roleblocker for one scum, which is good.

I've asked you about this before, but you didn't reply to it when I brought it up last time. I think I worded my last post badly though, maybe I should rephrase: I think the correct thing to do would be to lynch Jeru, but I'm leaning towards lynching SF because I think he's more likely to turn up scum.

-----

You've said what I had on my mind about the lovo/SF wagons. I still don't have time to look deeper, but that's the gist of what I'm thinking about.

-----

I'm thinking about how viable a no lynch would be, or what would happen if we lynched someone else instead. We can't lynch anyone unless we can all agree on the night blockings.

------

Oh, and just to repeat:

SF, who do you think are the scum?

[jerubbaal]

Do go back and read day 1. Try to look at SF's posting apart from all the PR, and even without the PR, his behavior is scummy as hell. Similarly, I don't think Joubert has actually said anything even moderately original in this game. Barntastic. Xyl put some thought into his posting, but I think he thought his reasons for switching to lovo sounded better than they do. He definitely fits the smart scum MO.

Jerubbaal, it seems you have something against me, but not relevantly related to the game or your defense. You say I don't say anything "original", which is largely discutable, by the way, but would you say so if I wanted to lynch SF instead? Looks like it's a rant out of spite because you are on the brink of being lynched...

Your reasoning for jumping on any of the wagons you've been on has been, summarily "yeah, what he said." I'm not attacking you because you're voting me, I'm attacking you because you're not thinking about the game. You're just going on auto-pilot and following what other people think. Which tends to be what noob scum do.

No lynch is not an option. Seriously, we do nothing to resolve the SF-me conflict and leave an additional person unblocked, reducing our chances of sucessfully blocking the NK. In addition, we need to get scum down to 2, because once they're at 2, they can't kill. If there's 3, the math doesn't work nearly as well for us.

[Korts]

I'm with ting here. Even if the chance of SF truly being the cop is far less than jeru being town, the correct play is to lynch jeru, because his alignment turning public would be much more telling. It's a very probable town win anyway.

[jerubbaal]

No, the correct play is to lynch scum, not lynch a townie just because you're scared of the scum who claimed cop. Yes it is a probable win either way, but if we lynch SF, we win now. This "correct play" stuff is crap, the correct play is always to lynch scum.

And how the heck would knowing my alignment be any better than knowing SF? Knowing one means knowing the other.

[Korts]

Yes, but while you we can only use to block someone, SF, if he turns up cop, can investigate.

[jerubbaal]

Wow, you're all still missing the point completely. Yes, if SF were town, he would be much more valuable than me. But he's not. In the end, if we lynch correctly today, we win. All you need to be worried about is figuring out who is scum and who is not. All this crap about the "correct lynch" is useless. We lynch scum, we win.

[SensFan]

Wow, you're all still missing the point completely. Yes, if SF were town, he would be much more valuable than me. But he's not. In the end, if we lynch correctly today, we win. All you need to be worried about is figuring out who is scum and who is not. All this crap about the "correct lynch" is useless. We lynch scum, we win.

If we choose right, we win.

Vote: S
Vote: T
Vote: I
Vote: L
Vote: L

Vote: P
Vote: O
Vote: S
Vote: S
Vote: I
Vote: B
Vote: L
Vote: E

Vote: F
Vote: O
Vote: R

Vote: A

Vote: N
Vote: K

[jerubbaal]

Nope. If you think about it enough, you'll get it. Or maybe not. Regardless, I'm not suggesting anything to the other scum.

[Imat]

Ok Jerub, I have a question for you. We all know you are deadset on SF being Scum, right? So, who, if anyone, is SF's partner(s)? Certainly you have suspicions which reach beyond the present task of survival, correct?

[jerubbaal]

Joubert and Xyl (now Battle Mage). I think I was pretty clear on that. They were the late wagon hoppers. As soon as an opportunity appeared to hop off of SF's wagon, they took it. Xyl was fairly smart scum, so he tried to explain it away, but his explanation for his change of vote rings very hollow, if you read it. I sincerely doubt Joubert even checked the vote count before he hopped over, he just saw the wagon abandoning SF and hopped on the next wagon.

[ting =)]

No, no Korts you misunderstood me. Let me rephrase: While I feel that lynching Jeru is the correct play, I'm leaning towards lynching SF because I feel he's the better lynch.

-------
@Jeru.
No lynch

is

a viable option, if we go with Cave's original plan.

We pair all the players and leave Korts and SF free. If there's an nk, we lynch SF. We make SF investigate

everyone

. If he doesn't turn up guilty results, we lynch SF. Once he's done investigating everyone and has three guiltys, we lynch SF.

If he turns out cop, then we trust his results and lynch all his guiltys - win. If he turns out scum, then it'll be just like if we lynch him now, which is what you want anyway.

Besides the obvious drawback that it'll take a while to carry out, a no lynch works for both you and SF. I haven't decided yet if I think it's the best option, but I'm not disregarding a no lynch as a possible move. I'm not disregarding lynching someone else either.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Mathematically, I dislike a no lynch; the chance of an NK is a bit too high (although, an NK might be very revealing at this point if we do the blocks properly.)

I'm starting to think jerub looks increasingly likely to be town (or VERY persistent scum), to the point where I'm doubting the benefits of lynching him, but I still think the best way to this is to lynch him. Even if the most likely scenario is that we lynch him today and SF tomorrow, we're still in a good position. SF as cop looks weird, but frankly, we can afford to take the chance if our position is even half as good as it looks.

All in all, I prefer a jerub lynch, followed by no lynch, followed by SF lynch. I don't see very much point in lynching someone else entirely; assuming that either jerub or SensFan is scum, I don't think it would pay off to hunt elsewhere.

[jerubbaal]

Nah, no lynch is basically the same thing as lynching me. If we don't block SF, he's going to get a kill off, which is what we're trying to avoid. I'm alright with it, because it will cause someone's death, not necessarily mine, but it's worse for the rest of the town because you have to consider the off-chance that we end up pairing scum and they get an NK despite SF being the actual cop. So no, I don't think it has any advantage over just lynching me or SF.

If you lynch me, lynch that bugger tomorrow. There is absolutely no reason to wait. I'm resentful enough as it is.

And all this "well, I really think Jeru's town, but we should lynch him anyway" crap is getting really old. We lynch scum, we win. How do you not get that?

[Joubert]

Jerubbaal, we don't know if you're Town or not... That's why...

[Imat]

Cavebear, where'd the no lynch idea come from? Are you assuming Jerub turns Scum? Then why lynch SF. If you're assuming Jerub turns Town, why give SF Scum another day to live? I have no idea where this no lynch inbetween lynches came from.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Cogito Ergo Scum's First Law of Mafia

If you think someone's town, don't lynch him!

[Battle Mage]

Cogito Ergo Scum's First Law of Mafia

If you think someone's town, don't lynch him!

FoA: CES

What kind of a copycat are you? First you steal CES's acronym, then you steal Mr Stoofer's patented idiocy. 0.o

(im reading now)

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Cavebear, where'd the no lynch idea come from? Are you assuming Jerub turns Scum? Then why lynch SF. If you're assuming Jerub turns Town, why give SF Scum another day to live? I have no idea where this no lynch inbetween lynches came from.

Wasn't my idea; as far as I could find, this is the first mention of it as a serious idea:

I'm seriously considering the no lynch option. No lynch repeatedly, and when he has results on everyone, lynch him and see if he was a cop.

Valid points though, both Imat's and jerub's. It was weeks since the no lynch idea was brought up, and I can't remember my thoughts on it. Let's see if I can reconstruct them...
With a no-lynch, we'd leave SF and one more unpaired. If SF is cop, we run a higher risk of not being able to block all the scum, which is bad. Or at least that's the conclusion I came to earlier. I don't think I included the obvious thing there though, which is to block jerub with the "most town-looking" person, so the odds shouldn't be that bad, really. In fact, they should be pretty good, since the remaining two scum would have to be paired up with each other in order to kill. If SF is scum, then? Well, if the alternative is a jerubbaal lynch, we really gain a kill. SF can either kill jerub, instead of us lynching him, or kill someone else. Either way, if anyone's killed and jerub blocked, odds are stacked pretty heavily against SensFan.

Okay, I've got to be missing something, because when I put it like this, a no lynch seems like the best option. Am I missing something? Help me out here.

[Battle Mage]

Ok, im on Page 5, and im already as confused as hell. Sensfan appears to be claiming the dumbest PR ever. But this is a Khelv-game, so i guess expect the unexpected is a pretty major understatement. What i dont get is, the votes...

First Sensfan is listed as voting for himself, despite having done nothing of the sort. Then he puts forward that it could be because the last letter he posted was 'S', despite the fact that at various times in the game, several players have had the same first initial.
Eventually Khelv shows up and claims to be fixing the votecount, but as far as i can see, he hasnt changed anything, and Sensfan is still listed as voting for himself. Then he provides a new votecount, whereby Sensfan is listed as voting for Xylthixm, despite the last letter he posted in that wierd format being 'Y'. Note that Xylthixm is the only actual vote he had made upto that point.

So yeah, i think we can put pay to the idea of Sens' last letter initial idea, but the mod's votecounts are still confusing the hell outta me.

Mod: Is that first votecount accurate?

I'll carry on reading.

BM

[Battle Mage]

EDIT: I thought Sensfan wanted me to put down a vote for whoever the cop was (if there is a cop). When rereading that post, it is quite apparent that he wasn't trying to put a vote on a cop, but was instead posting C-O-P, without a vote for that..

Page 6 is quite funny, because every single one of you appears to have totally missed the crux of the above post. If Sens DIDN'T have a PR, why would Khelv think he needed to put a vote down for the cop?

Regardless of whether his cop claim is true, (and i agree that it probably isn't) Sens's PR appears to be confirmed.
Although why the hell none of you thought of asking him to BREAK his PR in order to prove it at the beginning of the game, is totally beyond me... 0.o

BM

[Battle Mage]

ugh. im still really conflicted on this SF issue. The only townie who ive seen fake a PR WAS my brother, who just does stuff like that. I dont really know SF to have a reputation, so I cant say whether theyd fake as town. Im pretty sure the PR isnt legit though.

A few instances of townies faking post restrictions do not change the fact that

most

players who fake PRs are scum.

Did i replace this guy? Jesus christ... 0.o
Just wanted to emphasis how inaccurate this statement is. I've only seen 1 claimed PR in a game on MS, and it was a fakeclaim PR by a townie. I can link to the game if you wish.

BM