Cultafia: Game over

[vollkan]

i have no idea whats going on, but i targetted yos. When Blaze said we wasn't recruited, i had a feeling that he might be telling the truth, and i looked back at some of the people who said the least yesterday, and i picked yos out of that set. It is possible we have two vigs, shooting every other night is a weird thing to have for a vig, but it allows both vigs to target a CL or SK and kill them in one night. it get s around their one kill immunity, and yet allows to effectively have one vig kill a night, assuming myself and the alternate vig took shots every other night. We have no redirection roles, so unless i was RB'ed by blaze, which could very well have been the case, we have at least one other vig and/ or sk.

Vote Yosarian2 You're right i didn't vote.

Maybe I am missing something here...

If I was in Blaze's position (RB being alleged to have committed a NK by a stupid accusation) I would be within rights to justifably RB my accuser (ie. you, mnowax). How do you justify waving your finger at Yosarian when there is a considerable likelihood that you were just RBed?

[Hjallti]

First thoughts, while reading the posts

mnowax can been blocked by blazerunner and prevented blazerunner to kill Yosarian.

having a vig that only can vig every two nights, the mod might have decided to include two vigs. They are together as strong as one and if one is converted the balance is not that much harmed compared to have both converted.

Conclusion:

scenario 1a

The following scenario fits in with all we know and all what has been claimed so far.

We have at least 3 shooting roles: it is most probable we have a Sk and two vigs (half powered). ((The latter could have been a good choice from our mod to balance the problem that a single vig conversion of kill early might tilt the game out of balance.))

First night our SK killed DrippingGoofball
First day mnowax claimed vig and blazerunner claimed recruited RB and eventually RB.
Second night: SK and vig kill : vikingfan and blazerunner.
((Both have been under suspicion day 1, it is hard to tell who decide to go for which. The vig might have thought mnowax to be blocked by blazerunner and go himself, but that would be stupid, since if blazerunner could block he still was town, and pretty safe for recruitment because he already claimed to be recruited. So either the vig did not believe mnowax to be another vig, or the he decided to get rid of vikingfan))

scenario 1.2

there could be another explanation but I don't see it, without using assumptions like 3 vigs, 2sks, ...

scenario 2

mnowax could be cult and claiming falsely:

In this case the real vig decided yesterday not to counterclaim yet. Did he guess there could be a second vig? Did he think it was wise to not claim?

Here something strikes me as odd:
mnowax first post today is also somehow surprizing in that scenario as it would mean he choose to go by his explanation while he could as well have claimed to have attacked blazerunner. As his alledged action was blocked it could have been any. The weird thing is that his conclusion doesn't make sense (My action didn't go through so Yosarian2 was immune). But getting conclusions wrong is no scumtell.

mnowax-scum at this point makes less sense than mnowax-town.

general thinking

We have meanwhile possible 2 3-member strong cults (although it is against the odds that all 4 recruitment trials went through, it is still possible), and a SK... this worst case scenario gives a 3:3:1:5 which means cults need to start to get rid of eachother...

I know second guessing the mod is bad, but what about second guessing cult leaders? We already saw yesterday that we don't expect blazerunner to be converted soon. Who will be converted soon?

I would guess experienced quality players like: vollkan, CuriousKarmaDog, NabakovNabakov are already possible recruits. I am not familiar with most of the rest to put them on this list, but Occult would be next. We may assume that 3 of our 12 started scum. (3:1:8 would also be possible in fact and balanced but I think there are two cults.)

[Skruffs]

Another possibility is that TSS is the SK, was roleblocked, and one of hte vigs shot DGB night one.

There's no reason for a vig or an sk to hit mnowax - either he is a vig and thus can help with the cult menace, or, he is a recruit and is thus not the source of hte cult menace. Why they decided, instead, to go after a claimed recruit/roleblocker doesn't make sense, though. I Would say tha tif an SK killed last night, they probably hit blazerunner. Vikingfan's hit (to me anyways) seems more like a vig kill, even if it turned out to be bad for town. Of course, I called Vikingfan a cult all day yesterday, do.


Why do you think cultists would be likely to recruit "experienced quality players"? Wouldn't they be more likely to recruit players that can fly under the radar? and are you insinuating that I'm not cult-worthy? Considering you used your own experience with players to determine if they are culted or not, should we assume that the cult has your input in the manner?

[Norinel]

IF Mno was blocked (likely) and there are no redirectors (there aren't) then we could have up to four vigs, or a vig and two SKs (which means TSS might be an sk after all) or two vigs (who didn't go night one) and an sk.

The mod should clarify how someone will die if two cults attempt to recruit someone the same night; it seems unlikely to be burnt to a crisp OR shot, more likely some sort of heart attack or aneurism or something.

modmodmomdodmodmo

It's the same "burnt to a crisp". The best justification I can come up with flavorwise is that the same satellites that laser people also have mind control functionality, and more than one pointing at the same place causes an overload.

Vote Count

Yosarian2- 1 (mnowax)

Not voting (11): Everyone else

7 to lynch

[NabakovNabakov]

Hjallti's idea about anti-cult vig mechanics makes a helluvalotta sense. But second guessing [person/group/entity] = WIFOM,

especially

when it comes to night actions. That isn't even considering the various opinions of recruiters on who is or is not an experienced, skilled, or trusted player.

@Hjallti: Any particular reason you put the names you did on that list, and not (for example) Yos or Skruffs?

[Yosarian2]

First thoughts, while reading the posts

scenario 2

mnowax could be cult and claiming falsely:

In this case the real vig decided yesterday not to counterclaim yet. Did he guess there could be a second vig? Did he think it was wise to not claim?

2b, the one I think is most likely:Mnowax was town yesterday, and was telling the truth now. But after he claimed vig, he became a likely cult recruit. So the theory I think is most likely is:

Mnowax was pro-town yesterday
He killed Blaze last night, just like he said he would
Then he got recruited
Now that he's been recruited, he's become scum, and has decided to lie in order to try and get me lynched.

That's the most likely theory, I think.

[armlx]

Hjallti's last post is very logical, though I'm wondering how Yosarian missed his list of experienced quality players. I have a pretty good idea why this could be true, but I want to hear his answer.

The TSS being SK thing makes a lot of sense now as well given that, with Blaze's block and all.

Pretty sure mno's anti-Yos logic is just wrong.

No clue who are possible cult leaders, only some thoughts on who probably isn't.

[Yosarian2]

Hjallti's last post is very logical, though I'm wondering how Yosarian missed his list of experienced quality players. I have a pretty good idea why this could be true, but I want to hear his answer.

Eh...I understand his point, but I don't think it's entierly valid, for the same reason that experenced players don't always get killed in a normal mafia game; because while they're tempting targets, they're also more likely to be doc-protected. Same applies here.

[mnowax]

i have said before, the name of my cult leader might just happen to leak out of my post if i am to be recruited. i am not recruit. and i am not pulling a blaze.

[Yosarian2]

Well, then, care to explain why you targeted me? Or why you would vote for me based on that?

[mnowax]

yos, i have already said why in post 448 i have put a vote on you due to my conclusions.

[vollkan]

yos, i have already said why in post 448 i have put a vote on you due to my conclusions.

Oh right. Let's backtrack those those reasons shall me:

i have no idea whats going on, but i targetted yos. When Blaze said we wasn't recruited, i had a feeling that he might be telling the truth, and i looked back at some of the people who said the least yesterday, and i picked yos out of that set. It is possible we have two vigs, shooting every other night is a weird thing to have for a vig, but it allows both vigs to target a CL or SK and kill them in one night. it get s around their one kill immunity, and yet allows to effectively have one vig kill a night, assuming myself and the alternate vig took shots every other night. We have no redirection roles, so unless i was RB'ed by blaze, which could very well have been the case, we have at least one other vig and/ or sk.

Vote Yosarian2 You're right i didn't vote.

Without looking, I don't believe Yosarian was the most lurky (he may well have been; if so I apologise). That being the case, you need to explain why you would target Yosarian over somebody else.

[Hjallti]

Another possibility is that TSS is the SK, was roleblocked, and one of hte vigs shot DGB night one.

which would make the vig shooting two nights in a row, as far as I can see, or we have 2 vigs apart from mnowax (regardless if mnowax is vig)....
seems unlikely somehow.

skruffs and nabnab: I haven't seen/played that many games on the site and I put in the names I know are experienced, which is due to a small sample of games. vollkan has been in most of my games for instance. I just didn't see skruffs and Yosarian that much, but as explicetly said I am not enough familiar, and thus implied I think it might be an idea (but I understand the WIFOM fussing it up) to look by that criterium but I can't do it. My list is to arbitrary. It was as an example. (if I not had done that some would have asked who I would put in I guess)

@mnowax. Are you still happy with your vote on Yosarian2? I can see why you voted, I don't see why you are still voting... it seems your points are invalid and it was shown by other players. Do you have another reason to keep your vote?

[Hjallti]

I just read throught TSS posts' of day1. personally I don't see any problems with those posts, and I don't see why he would be likely SK. I can see why he is the most likely SK, but only with a small difference with all the rest. He had just a different angle to look at mnowax's claim and it might be due that he had more knowledge, but I don't see that as more than a small indication.

TSS: Do you think Occult has to be lynched?

[mnowax]

no i don't but it s not hurting anything to stay on there for now.

Like i said before. i just picked randomly off the people who didn't post much yesterday.

[vollkan]

Like i said before. i just picked randomly off the people who didn't post much yesterday.

If I gave you an enema, I could fit you in a matchbox.

1) Why were you picking off people who didn't post much? Don't tell me "More likely to be CL", because scumminess is also a vital criteria in making that judgment.
2) Why Yosarian? Don't call it "random", because you made a choice.

[armlx]

Like i said before. i just picked randomly off the people who didn't post much yesterday.

Yosarian currently has 53 posts this game. That is almost double the number you have. I wouldn't classify him as not posting much. So, is there a real reason you targeted him, or are you just pulling things out of your ass?

[armlx]

EBWODP: Just checked, logic is even more fail. 53 is the second highest post count in the game.....

[mnowax]

[Off Topic]
That is quite possibly the funniest quote ever! i am so going to sig that!
[/OT]

i am quite serious. i just randomly picked yos hence the phrase random choice. Like i said in he very beginning, the best way to win here as a CL is to lurk. My opinion yos among other people was relative lurkers. i just figured id pick him.

Lynch me if you want. it will prove i am a vig. my power is all gone. i have to wait two days before i can kill again, and by then i will almost certainly be culted, and useless. I have made terrible assumptions in this game, and if the only way to prove who i am is in death, then so be it. i also don't want to be a recruit, either do id rather die noble.

[Skruffs]

2b, the one I think is most likely:Mnowax was town yesterday, and was telling the truth now. But after he claimed vig, he became a likely cult recruit. So the theory I think is most likely is:

Mnowax was pro-town yesterday
He killed Blaze last night, just like he said he would
Then he got recruited
Now that he's been recruited, he's become scum, and has decided to lie in order to try and get me lynched.

That's the most likely theory, I think.

Why, then, was Blaze's block of him ineffective? Blaze is confirmed pro-town roleblocker, not recruited (or was killed before recruiterd, but that doesn't effect his play yesterday) - he 'true claimed' in twilight and said he would block MNOWAX, and there is no reason to think he wouldn't do that, considering that the rest of his post was also true.

I'm more willing to believe MNOWAX is a cult-recruiter and blazerunner was SK'd or vigged by someone else than that mnowax was recruited last night. What would it benefit the cult to recruit (Rather than vaporize) a claimed vig/sk anyways?

[Hjallti]

cult can better recruit than vaporize any player because it makes the cult bigger. As an easy example if it is 8:2 (suppose here 1 cult) vaporizing gives 7:2 and recruiting 7:3. Moreover town doesn't know in the latter case what happened and does know in the former (due to mod explicitly stated the modus operandi of death of the cults).

[Yosarian2]

i am quite serious. i just randomly picked yos hence the phrase random choice. Like i said in he very beginning, the best way to win here as a CL is to lurk. My opinion yos among other people was relative lurkers. i just figured id pick him.

Um, I'm not a lurker and never was, I'm one of the most active people in the game and have been all game. Are you paying attention here?

And I really hope you're scum, I hope that as vig you wouldn't actually go and say "Hey, you know what, let me just kill Yosarian for lurking even though he's the second most active guy in the game".

Lynch me if you want. it will prove i am a vig. my power is all gone. i have to wait two days before i can kill again, and by then i will almost certainly be culted, and useless. I have made terrible assumptions in this game, and if the only way to prove who i am is in death, then so be it. i also don't want to be a recruit, either do id rather die noble.

Or perhaps you want to die because you're a recruit and don't want to be? Perhaps you figured you wanted to take me down with you, perhaps your cult recruiter asked you to?

[Yosarian2]

Why, then, was Blaze's block of him ineffective? Blaze is confirmed pro-town roleblocker, not recruited (or was killed before recruiterd, but that doesn't effect his play yesterday) - he 'true claimed' in twilight and said he would block MNOWAX, and there is no reason to think he wouldn't do that, considering that the rest of his post was also true.

That's a fair point. But if Mnowax was blocked, and you're right he probably was, that still dosn't explain any of his other actions. It dosn't explain why he's claimed he tried to kill me for reasons that make no sense, it dosn't explain why he's voting for me supposedly because of his night action even though he was blocked.

I'm more willing to believe MNOWAX is a cult-recruiter and blazerunner was SK'd or vigged by someone else than that mnowax was recruited last night.

I guess that could be too. It seems less likely to me, but Mnowax has acted so weird this game he could be almost anything.

What would it benefit the cult to recruit (Rather than vaporize) a claimed vig/sk anyways?

Why wouldn't they? If the cult knows someone's recruitable, which would they rather do; kill him, in which case the town loses one member, or recruit him, in which case the town loses one member and they gain one member? Even just recruting someone and then trying to get the town to use a lynch on him is more in the cult's favor then just killing him outright.

[Skruffs]

Something that *does* make sense is that Mnowax might be a cult recruiter, tried to recruit Yos, and was blocked, so failed, and took that to mean that Yos is a cult-recruiter or SK since those two factions avoid the first NK attempt on them and are also cult-immune. Doesn't mean a thing about Yos's role, though.

[armlx]

Something that *does* make sense is that Mnowax might be a cult recruiter, tried to recruit Yos, and was blocked, so failed, and took that to mean that Yos is a cult-recruiter or SK since those two factions avoid the first NK attempt on them and are also cult-immune. Doesn't mean a thing about Yos's role, though.

Especially given he is probably the most prolific target in the game with a (then) living alarmist and could also just be Steadfast in that scenario.