Mini 549 (Tarhalindur Mostly Mountainous) - Game Over

[Ectomancer]

I had a minor surgery today. Drugged up. Should be back tomorrow sometime.

[Mizzy]

I have never played (or heard of) a Mountainous game before, so I am basing my 3-scummer thoughts on normal games. Sorry if I am wrong

[Ectomancer]

Still in pain and out of sorts. Might be sometime this weekend before I get back for more. Taking care of the game Im modding and that's it for now.

[Something Awesome]

Hey guys. I think we're replacing Thenextepisode.

(if not, please delete this post)

We'll have a read through over the weekend, and see what we can come up with.

[Something Awesome]

Hey guys. I think we're replacing Thenextepisode.

(if not, please delete this post)

We'll have a read through over the weekend, and see what we can come up with.

The other half shall do the same

[Battousai]

What's with this we stuff? Multiple players under same name?

[Something Awesome]

No...
1 player with a split personality. And we still haven't got our role pm(s)

[Ectomancer]

No...
1 player with a split personality. And we still haven't got our role pm(s)

Perfect. Do a quick analysis of everyone before you get it.

[Something Awesome]

Nice idea. But we aren't going to read the entire game until the Mod at least confirms we are replacing.

[Mizzy]

I think as a rule of thumb, you shouldn't post in a game until you get the mod confirmation, just in case the replacement slot went to someone else, yes?

[Something Awesome]

Well, Tarhalindur and myself had an... agreement. This is our little way of confirming the placement, whilst simultaneously getting to know our fellow players.

If the place has for some reason gone to someone else, Tar can easily delete these posts. Stop panicking!

[Mizzy]

Well, Tarhalindur and myself had an... agreement. This is our little way of confirming the placement, whilst simultaneously getting to know our fellow players.

If the place has for some reason gone to someone else, Tar can easily delete these posts. Stop panicking!

Trust me, it's hardly panicking I'm just saying, mostly for future reference since you appear to be a new player, that you generally should wait to post. Since it's something I think that's between you and the mod on more of a friendly-terms, that makes it a bit different here, but considering we have no idea who you are, we do have to ask.

[Tarhalindur]

I am 95% sure that SomethingAwesome will be replacing thenextepisode, but I need to wait for JordanA24 to finalize the cross-replacement that will allow this. SomethingAwesome is not officially in the game yet, but I will not delete his posts at this time.

Seventy-Second Vote Count:

Battousai (1) - Jester

Not Voting (6) - Ectomancer, Battousai (rep. ryan), Nyktorion, Mizzy (rep. Tamuz), RangeroftheNorth (rep. UnofficialRulerofEveryone who rep. RangeroftheNorth who rep. Dean Harper), thenextepisode

It will take 4 votes to lynch before deadline

FoS Count:

None

Current Deadline:

April 27, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6)

Second and Final Mod Deadline Review:

April 20, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6)

[Nyktorion]

There's good reason to believe the vig was one-shot. Otherwise, why not act earlier in the game? RC was just as much of a dick at the start of night 1 as he was at the start of night 2, maybe more so. There was no reason why a multi-shot vig shouldn't have shot RC on night 1. A one-shot vig, though, would have held his bullet hoping for more evidence.

There's no SK, and anyone who argues that there might be is either misguided or is actively trying to screw with the town. See below for the argument.

You are right. A vig in this game is probably a one-shot vig because there was only one death in N1, which was not RC. However, other scenarios are still possible (albeit less likely than the one-shot vig). We could have power role in the game (e.g. Mafia RB vs. standard vig?), the standard vig could have decided that RC was "just being an ass, but not scum", and for some reason have also chosen SlySly as target, we could have an SK, etc. While the case described by you is surely the most probable, it is not enough that I would like to bet the entire game on it.

I posted my 641 curious about who would speculate about number of mafia. As a matter of fact, I don't think we're at lylo. If there are three scum in this game with no or few pro-town power roles (vig doesn't really count), then this game was badly unbalanced in favor of the scum from the start. To my knowledge, the scum have won every standard mountainous game (2 scum, 10 vanilla town) on this site to date. They don't need three scum, and they better not have three scum. They've got two.

The fact that scum have won every standard mountainous to date would have likely given Tar good reason to introduce a weak pro-town role to try to balance the set-up a bit. Thus, "mostly" mountainous. That's why I think we have a one-shot vig.

Again, two scum makes more sense than three with a one-shot vig, but how can we know that Tarhalindur thinks the same?

And with that said, this renders the rest of Nyktorion's argument about a SK, as well as Ecto's argument on the same, as non-sensical. There's no SK in this game. If there were, there'd be two possibilities:
a) we have one mafia and one SK, or to put it another way, two SKs. There was only one Night 1 kill, so we don't have this set-up.
b) we have two mafia and one SK, and this game is hideously unbalanced against the town. There was only one Night 1 kill, so we don't have this set-up, either.

Well, an SK not only hurts the town, but also the mafia. As long as expected town and mafia win rates are still about equal, and each as least as great as the SK's, I don't see the impossibility of that setup.

So, in closing: I think your post does a good job in arguing which setup we most likely have. However, there are still many small possibilities of diferences, and the probabilities for these do add up. Thus, I still don't like it as a justification for throwing out votes in the current situation. I think using FOSes instead would not really have any drawback, but eliminate any of the risks I outlined above.

[Something Awesome]

I can assure you that i am no 'new player', missy! I've been playing Mafia elsewhere for over a year. And as for you not knowing who i am, you really really should.

follow the trail of breadcrumbs.

Well, Tarhalindur and myself had an... agreement. This is our little way of confirming the placement, whilst simultaneously getting to know our fellow players.

If the place has for some reason gone to someone else, Tar can easily delete these posts. Stop panicking!

Trust me, it's hardly panicking I'm just saying, mostly for future reference since you appear to be a new player, that you generally should wait to post. Since it's something I think that's between you and the mod on more of a friendly-terms, that makes it a bit different here, but considering we have no idea who you are, we do have to ask.

[Mizzy]

I can assure you that i am no 'new player', missy! I've been playing Mafia elsewhere for over a year. And as for you not knowing who i am, you really really should.

Again, I have no real way of knowing who you are, and your account says nothing about your identity, and honestly, I have more important things on my plate right now than worrying about who you are And it's Mizzy, please. Or Miz, that works too.

[Mizzy]

My thoughts on the matter are that we have a vig, either full or one-shot, and whoever it is thought Rosso was scum, despite the meta information. (Seriously guys, for future information, Rosso is just like that...it sucks but that's how it goes.)

I would urge the vig to not kill again, if they can, until we have a good grasp on who is scum and who isn't. The game was set back pretty badly due to the D1 modkill (we lost a lot of ground, there) and now we need to be on our toes and careful about things.

[Mizzy]

MOD:

I just went into labor, be back ASAP! It should only be 2-3 days. Wish me luck

[Tarhalindur]

Something Awesome replaces thenextepisode.

Second Mod Deadline Review = passed. Final Deadline: May 4, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6) - this may be a bit late, since school finals begin May 5.

Finally, congratulations/good luck, Mizzy! Since you are about to have a baby and babies are time-consuming, I will consider you V/LA for the remainder of the game.

Seventy-Third Vote Count:

Battousai (1) - Jester

Not Voting (6) - Ectomancer, Battousai (rep. ryan), Nyktorion, Mizzy (rep. Tamuz), RangeroftheNorth (rep. UnofficialRulerofEveryone who rep. RangeroftheNorth who rep. Dean Harper), Something Awesome (rep. thenextepisode)

It will take 4 votes to lynch before deadline

FoS Count:

None

Final Deadline:

May 4, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6)

[Jester]

This is my post 335, Jester. I wrote this as my summary of the first day when I replaced in. In this I gave my minor suspicions for 5 people that were mainly gut. At the time there were 11 people, not including myself.

I understand your point completely. It doesn't change the fact that I find such shotgunning to be scummy.

Well, Tarhalindur and myself had an... agreement.

Use of a singular pronoun. This is obviously suspicious.

We could have power role in the game (e.g. Mafia RB vs. standard vig?), the standard vig could have decided that RC was "just being an ass, but not scum", and for some reason have also chosen SlySly as target, we could have an SK, etc. While the case described by you is surely the most probable, it is not enough that I would like to bet the entire game on it.

Mountainous game.

FOS: Nyktorion

Well, an SK not only hurts the town, but also the mafia. As long as expected town and mafia win rates are still about equal, and each as least as great as the SK's, I don't see the impossibility of that setup.

Then you have some explanation, however improbable, for the single kill on Night 1?

MOD: I just went into labor, be back ASAP! It should only be 2-3 days. Wish me luck

Now THAT'S dedication to your mafiascum game! Good luck, Mizzy!

[Jester]

Actually, after a second read of Nyktorion's post...

FOS: Battousai, unvote, vote: Nyktorion

.

A SK does not hurt the town and the mafia equally. Just looking at basic probability, a SK has a 82% chance of hitting town on N1 and only an 18% chance of hitting mafia.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I agree with Nyktorian. While the most likely scenario is the one you presented, that doesn't invalidate the possibility of other scenarios. The only indication we have that this is a mountainous game is the title, which refers to the game as

Mostly

Mountainous. That means that, while there aren't a bunch of power roles floating around, there might be one or two.

There are several possibilities for why a serial killer would not kill on a given night. They could want to hide the existence of a serial killer. They might have missed the deadline. They might only be able to kill on even numbered nights. Only having one kill doesn't preclude the existence of a serial killer.

Good luck, Mizzy.

[Ectomancer]

Actually, after a second read of Nyktorion's post...

FOS: Battousai, unvote, vote: Nyktorion

.

A SK does not hurt the town and the mafia equally. Just looking at basic probability, a SK has a 82% chance of hitting town on N1 and only an 18% chance of hitting mafia.

Actually, with 7 alive, 1 SK, and 2 scum, that would make a 66.6% and a 33.3% chance. Not quite as extreme as you say, unless you really believe in your 1 scum, 1 SK (which is to say, 2 SK's), and then it becomes an 80/20 proposition.
A Vig has a 66.6/33.3 chance of hitting town, unless we lynch town today (and there are only 2 scum), and then chances improve to 60/40. Still meaning the Vig should probably not kill tonight. If there is 1 SK and 2 scum, the SK

also

should not kill tonight.

We've got to get this right on lynches. I'm thinking if there is a 1 shot Vig, they may as well speak up. Their power is used, they are vanilla at this point, and at least it might clear up the air somewhat (if we can believe them). Would that make sense? I know, people could try all kinds of tricks, but they would have to fess up to a killing last night at least.

[Battousai]

What I gather from Jester's 694 of Nyktorion is "You disagree with me, you are obviously scummy."

And then 695- IMO, a sk does hurt the scum more than town, but the probablity of hurting town INSTEAD of scum is greater at the beginning, but decreases as days go on. The reason I say it hurts the scum more than town is because there are only (1-3, probably 2) scum and if one of the gets killed then its down to only one scum to lynch that next day and that person has to play very well in most circumstances.


Also, Mizzy, good luck

[Tarhalindur]

Seventy-Fourth Vote Count:

Nyktorion (1) - Jester

Not Voting (6) - Ectomancer, Battousai (rep. ryan), Nyktorion, Mizzy (rep. Tamuz), RangeroftheNorth (rep. UnofficialRulerofEveryone who rep. RangeroftheNorth who rep. Dean Harper), Something Awesome (rep. thenextepisode)

It will take 4 votes to lynch before deadline

FoS Count:

None

Final Deadline:

May 4, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6)