Mini 568 - Nubigena (Game over!)

[Incognito]

1)

vote incognito

. 533 and 537 look bad to me. He accuses me, but votes Near. Then he promptly unvotes after the claim. Both look like he's trying to play it safe.

I had outlined my Near suspicions long before 533 and even voted him long before that as well. In fact, I had unvoted Near back in Post 256 after Mafiaplayer hastily placed him at L-1 when we hadn't even heard a word from our replacements. Post 533 was essentially my revote of the person I found scummiest all game. Obviously I'm gonna unvote after a Gunsmith claim while I waited for a counterclaim and in the absence of one, I saw no reason to lynch Near during D1. Your current OMGUS vote of me is noted though.

[gorckat]

3) FOS gorckat. He's a follower. Post 553 mimic's Y's opinion, then 651 jumps on a bandwagon.

Yes- two posts out of forty make me a follower.

553 was me weighing in on Near's claim.

651 was me agreeing that Near is scum, for reasons covered in Day 1, for the most part. And the first, and so far, only vote on the "bandwagon".

[Mizzy]

3) FOS gorckat. He's a follower. Post 553 mimic's Y's opinion, then 651 jumps on a bandwagon.

Yes- two posts out of forty make me a follower.

553 was me weighing in on Near's claim.

651 was me agreeing that Near is scum, for reasons covered in Day 1, for the most part. And the first, and so far, only vote on the "bandwagon".

Actually, just to insert my two cents, I have gotten the feeling all game that you are either a follower or simply opportunistic. It's a gut feeling mostly, so I haven't said anything til now, and I don't base anything off gut when I can help it. But I definitely got the same feeling.

[Lowell]

Yes, Jerub looks very Pro-Town to us as well...That may or may not be because he's dead...

HA. Sorry.

[Mizzy]

MOD:

I just went into labor, be back ASAP! It should only be 2-3 days. Wish me luck

[destructor]

Mizzy is awesome (Or insane? I'm not sure.) for posting that while in labour.

Best of luck!

[Lowell]

Yo, mod, I posted my last while eating a bag of doritos. ONE-HANDED!

No props for me?

Posting while eating a

bag

is impressive, regardless of what's inside, or the number of hands involved. I assume the doritos made it easier on the palate, though. -Mod (giggling)

[Ripley]

My latest thoughts about Near coming up.

There was something niggling me about his claim, and during the night phase I went back and found it. This comes from a post made by Near on March 26th (Post 428) where he gives his thoughts on all the players in response to a request from XReyoX. (This was the second time Near had been asked to do this by XReyoX, and on both occasions he obliged, so there are actually two such lists, Posts 164 and 428.)

In this post Near says, of me:

Ripley: He has been very very helpful in defending me. I think without him, I would have been lynched already. He makes good thoughtful posts, and often explains what I mean better than I can. He has been very useful to me so far, but I am still concerned about his being scum and is buddying up to me. I really doubt it though. I feel like he could have lynched me pretty easily if he wanted to. But the who knows, maybe he's trying to set up for late game.

My problem with this is: why would Near, a power-role, expect to be "pretty easily lynched"? This post was made 11 days before the gunsmith claim, and it did make me wonder if these were the words of a scum who hadn't yet thought of a convincing roleclaim. I'd like to get Near's comments on this.

Can't help but notice that had I not been unavoidably absent at the start of the day, I would probably have posted this and Near would immediately have been convinced I'd fallen into his trap. Near, you need to take into account that if you spring a trap at the start of a day, players often use the night phase to reread and so will often, genuinely, start the day with new observations and maybe a somewhat different opinion on some players. Especially a player like me who's only in this one game.

Pending Near's reply, I still think the balance of the external evidence points to Near being innocent. No counterclaims, no dead cop... and the longer this goes on, the more genuine he looks. One of these situations must, surely, be true:

1. Near is a scum, and there is a real investigator.
2. Near is innocent, and, though inaccurate, the only investigator.
3. Near is innocent, and there is a second, probably also weakened, investigator.

If either 1) or 3) is the case, the second investigator has not spoken up, and if they investigated Near last night - which seems logical - they can't have found him to be scum. Surely in that situation, with a doc probably still around, they would claim, name and shame. The fact that this hasn't happened adds to the evidence on the side of Near's innocence. (This is of course complicated by the fact that the second investigator may not be getting entirely accurate results either.)

One final thought, which may not make much sense but my eyes are starting to water so this post has to end here, is the possibility of a Mafia gunsmith.

[Y]

We can't be sure we have a doc. I wouldn't take the risk if it was my life at stake. If there is another investigative role, he might have thought Near would get lynched anyway.

Near, I'm waiting for my list.

[Lowell]

If Near isn't the real investigator, he'll have trouble explaining himself when the real one dies. So I'm not sure why we shouldn't believe his claim at this point.

[Near]

Ok, Y. There are other games I have to post in, and I don't have that much time, so for now I will do what I can.

I will start with you.

Y

: I suspected you as a scum from Day 1. You stood by Sammich. I think it's safe to say that I wasn't the only person who found him suspicious. From my perspective, he did many egregiously suspicious things and even though he turned up town, your defending him (yes, I maintain you were defending him) does not help your case. You could have been a scum and made a play knowing that Sammich wasn't. But then, in the same token, you were accusing me, so maybe this is not much of a tell.

Also, scums decide not to try to NK me. Sure, if there was a doctor, they would have wasted a kill if they targeted me. But at least it would give them information that there is a doctor (but then, it would also pretty much make everyone believe that I am a gunsmith, so maybe they decided to go for a "sure" kill). But it's also possible that, as Ripley said, you could be a godfather and they knew I would check you out, "proving" your innocence. I think both scenarios are possible, although I am not sure which one is more likely. For now, I would say somewhat scummy, but not as much as I suspected on Day 1.

Ripley

: He is a voice of reason. He has defended me many times on Day 1, and I find myself thinking "can this guy really be mafia." And yes, I tried to test him and he says it wouldn't have worked. But in the back of my mind, I had a brief thought "maybe he wanted to avoid the situation by making an excuse of surgery". I doubt it though. I am sure doing something like that is withing rules of this game, but I just don't think Ripley is the type who would do something like that. So, I find him pretty protown.

Gokrat

I found him suspicious since his vote hopping toward the end of Day 1. I briefly considered checking him out instead of Y at night. The fact that he doesn't believe I am a gunsmith and his insistence on trying to lynch me today makes me suspect him. Scummy.

Lowell

I don't really find him scummy. I didn't have a very good read on him day 1, and I still don't. His last post where he says "If Near isn't the real investigator, he'll have trouble explaining himself when the real one dies. So I'm not sure why we shouldn't believe his claim at this point." is a reasonable one. Neutral.

Mizzy

I think she's pretty pro-town. Despite some idiotic posts mafiaplayer has made before Mizzy replaced him, I still found mafiaplayer to be protown because he was, afterall, able to claim townsperson correctly. And since replacing him, she has made pro-town posts, even though I think she did accuse me for awhile until I claimed. But then suspecting a town isn't necessarily a scummy thing. Pro-town.

ooba

"verified" townie. even if you guys don't believe me, he is in my eyes, unless i have sanity issues or less likely, he's a godfather.

Incongito

I don't have a good read on him.

[destructor]

.::] Vote Count [::.

Near (1)

- gorckat

Mizzy (1)

- Lowell

Lowell (2)

- Incognito, Y

Not Voting (5) - Imat, Mizzy, Near, Ripley, ooba

Also, a reminder that you need to

Unvote

if you want to change your vote.

[Y]

Did you miss Imat on purpose?

If Near isn't the real investigator, then yes, when the real one dies, or claims, he'll be in trouble. But, and this is a big "but", in the meanwhile he's staying alive, which is better than dying. I wouldn't be surprised if he was trying to lure the real cop out.

[Imat]

Indeed...Was I missed for any particular reason? If you're harboring some huge suspicions for me, It'd be kinda hard for me to defend myself. If you think I'm practically confirmed Town, its just as hard for others to give an opinion on your evidence. So I'd like to be included in this list, see where I stand compared to everyone else mentioned...

[gorckat]

Gokrat I found him suspicious since his vote hopping toward the end of Day 1. I briefly considered checking him out instead of Y at night. The fact that he doesn't believe I am a gunsmith and his insistence on trying to lynch me today makes me suspect him. Scummy.

I'm a cat, not a rat

iirc, I voted Y towards the end of Day One because he said he thought Sammich/Niv could have been a Doc, but his early questioning of him looked like it was designed to

out

a cop. Then I tried to hammer Niv at deadline (unnecessarily and a minute late) to avoid a No-Lynch.

Please illuminate how that was scummy.

If I don't believe your claim, should I shut up about it?

[Lowell]

I'm away until Friday. I may have internet, but I may not. Just warning you.

[Y]

I'm away until Friday. I may have internet, but I may not. Just warning you.

Good to know we'll have no content from you for a while (Yes, that was sarcasm).

@ gorckat: I thought him to be a cop, not a doc. What do you you think about it now that we know his alignment?

[Incognito]

Imat, did you ever find this:

I've kept Lowell in the back of my mind all game, I think it had something to do with the way he vote hopped, though that may have been Near. But I'm pretty sure I had something on Lowell that I filed away for later use. I'll find that and come back with it later today.

[destructor]

ooba has been prodded.

[Mizzy]

I'm home, reading over what I missed ASAP!

[Y]

Welcome back!

[Mizzy]

Thanks

[Imat]

Ok, some more thoughts on Near and an answer to Incognito's question: First, Incognito: Yes, I found it. If you search the 20 or so posts behind 461 by Lowell you'll find his "case" against me. In 461, Lowell changes votes to Niv with little to no support. If you look past 465, my third post asking him to explain his case against me, he says pretty much nothing. Lowell has formed bogus cases and completely lurked all game. When questioned about his cases he reverts back to his lurking self, hoping to wait out the questions. So far he has been able to do so.

Vote: Lowell

Onto Near: Near, I found an interesting little gem of a post in which you state "I don't think Sammich is Scum," or someting to that effect. After that you continue to push questions, including the dice roll questions. Why? If you had thought, even this far back, that Sammich was a Jester, why did you not say your suspicions then and help us get past your circular arguments? Honestly, you've not done much in this game to make you Town, only your claim. You claim is the only thing holding anybody back ATM.

FoS: Near

Also, another question to Near: Do you have something against analyzing me? Every list you've made since I denounced your first one has not included me, its starting to make me feel ignored or something...

[Ripley]

Also, another question to Near: Do you have something against analyzing me? Every list you've made since I denounced your first one has not included me, its starting to make me feel ignored or something...

He hasn't said anything about Incognito either, since he said he thought you were both unlikely scums in his first list.

My main problem with Lowell is something I mentioned at the time. Towards the end of Day 1 there were 2 almost equal bandwagons on Near and Niv, and after Near claimed it was clear he wasn't going to be lynched. Lowell promptly launched a new wagon on Y, saying that he thought it was good for the game to give those who believed Near an option other than Niv. With this being only 2 or 3 days before deadline I thought there was a real danger that the outcome of splitting the Niv vote at that stage would be a no-lynch, and with a less vigilant group that could easily have been what happened. As it was, there was a player online at deadline (Mizzy) who was in a position to lynch someone by changing her vote and she did so.

Actually, looking back at the deadline period I really don't like Y's Post 614:

I really don't think I'll be able to post again before deadline, so Mod: If it is possible, I'd like to vote for Niv if the deadline strikes and no lynch has been accomplished.

I just can't see any good reason why Y didn't just vote Niv directly without all this messing around. Here was the voting at that time (about 5 hours before deadline):

Near (3) - Y, Imat, Niv
Niv (5) - Near, jerrubaal, Ripley, ooba, Incognito
Y (3) - Lowell, Mizzy, gorckat

Not Voting (0) - No one

I don't believe there was the faintest chance of Y's current votee, Near, being lynched, given the number of people who were refusing to lynch an uncountered investigator. Let's check: jerubbaal, Mizzy, myself, Incognito, Lowell, ooba: not a chance any of us was going to make a last minute switch to Near. gorckat was the only possibility and even that would have left Near

two

votes short of a lynch.

And did anybody really think a mod this strict about voting procedure would honor a conditional vote at deadline by an absent player? Of course he wouldn't.

So why didn't Y just

vote

?

Back to Lowell. I agree with a comment that was made about his play to the effect that he's been pretty much distanced from the game, sort of "I think I'll just put my feet up here and watch you ants scurrying around, and maybe throw in a comment or two where it amuses me or if you ask nicely". And one other thing that bothers me a bit is the sheer number of votes he made on Day 1. By my records he voted ten times, though this probably includes some corrections of invalid votes. All the same, it's a heck of a lot of votes, and one way of making it impossible for anybody to discern any real meaning from your votes is simply to throw so many of them around that anyone trying to see a pattern is just going to give up. It's possible that he always does this, though, and I'm going to look at some of his completed games to see how much in character this is.

[gorckat]

@ gorckat: I thought him to be a cop, not a doc. What do you you think about it now that we know his alignment?

I understand where you'd get the idea, the way he vouched for MP, but even in the post you pointed out to clarify when you started to think he was the cop you said:

@ Sammich: My question was "How do you know Mafiaplayer's role?". I didn't see an answer.

It still seems like fishing.

@Ripley: I've also not liked his "<insert reason> is good enough" attitude on a couple of his votes.

---

I don't like the way Near clamped down on Sammich so long for "dicey" (pun intended) reasons- if he truly was a gunsmith, why wouldn't he have waited to look at him last night rather than push on the way he did, even as most of the town was pointing out his bad logic and unsupported assertions?

Toss in the test/there was no test, the results double-take on Reyo and the guilty/there was no guilty and his claim looks flat out fabricated to me.