Mini 549 (Tarhalindur Mostly Mountainous) - Game Over

[Ectomancer]

Actually, after a second read of Nyktorion's post...

FOS: Battousai, unvote, vote: Nyktorion

.

A SK does not hurt the town and the mafia equally. Just looking at basic probability, a SK has a 82% chance of hitting town on N1 and only an 18% chance of hitting mafia.

Perhaps because it is the only thing going on right now, your vehemence that we have no SK is standing out. While SK's are often required to kill every night, I believe there are instances where they are not as well.
As for balance purposes, an SK would make a good addition to the scum hunt, and not overly unbalance the game against the town. For the first part of the game, an SK would basically need to behave like a Vig until scum is found and removed. That is why an SK is an equal threat to town and scum, and right now the bigger threat is to scum.

You might be town making that argument, more likely to be an SK making that argument, but I don't really see scum making that argument (they would need to find the SK and certainly wouldn't want to discourage the hunt)

So, for right now at least, I can feel reasonably safe that, today, we have the same goal. If I can nudge you from trying to convince us of the impossibility of an SK (pretend you are right if you want, I dont care) Who are your 2 best cases for being scum?

[Nyktorion]

We could have power role in the game (e.g. Mafia RB vs. standard vig?), the standard vig could have decided that RC was "just being an ass, but not scum", and for some reason have also chosen SlySly as target, we could have an SK, etc. While the case described by you is surely the most probable, it is not enough that I would like to bet the entire game on it.

Mountainous game.

FOS: Nyktorion

I am aware that a mountainous game consists only of vanilla townies and scum. However, it's only mostly mountaious, and although we have already confirmed that there is at least one special role in this game, the existence of a second one might not be too far out of reach.

Well, an SK not only hurts the town, but also the mafia. As long as expected town and mafia win rates are still about equal, and each as least as great as the SK's, I don't see the impossibility of that setup.

Then you have some explanation, however improbable, for the single kill on Night 1?

ROTN has already answered this question for me and given some possible scenarios. It would also be possible that the SK might have targeted SlySly, too, for some reason.

A SK does not hurt the town and the mafia equally. Just looking at basic probability, a SK has a 82% chance of hitting town on N1 and only an 18% chance of hitting mafia.

Even though the chance that an SK hits town is much higher than the chance that he hits scum, the loss of a townie also hurts the town considerably less than the loss of scum hurts the mafia.

We've got to get this right on lynches. I'm thinking if there is a 1 shot Vig, they may as well speak up. Their power is used, they are vanilla at this point, and at least it might clear up the air somewhat (if we can believe them). Would that make sense? I know, people could try all kinds of tricks, but they would have to fess up to a killing last night at least.

This is a good point. The game-mechanical aspect of a one-shot vig would be used up now, so his death would not hurt us much more than the death of a vanilla townie would hurt us. However, there is still the claimability aspect of a one-shot vig, and I think that now would be a good time to use that aspect. Hence, I would support the idea that everyone claims whether they are a one-shot vig who used their kill last night or not. I suggest to fix some random order of claiming in order to minimize the chance that scum claims one-shot vig after six others have claimed not to be that role.

[Tarhalindur]

Seventy-Fifth Vote Count:

Nyktorion (1) - Jester

Not Voting (6) - Ectomancer, Battousai (rep. ryan), Nyktorion, Mizzy (rep. Tamuz), RangeroftheNorth (rep. UnofficialRulerofEveryone who rep. RangeroftheNorth who rep. Dean Harper), Something Awesome (rep. thenextepisode)

It will take 4 votes to lynch before deadline

FoS Count:

None

Final Deadline:

May 4, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6)

[Mizzy]

I'm home, reading over what I missed ASAP!

[Jester]

The only indication we have that this is a mountainous game is the title, which refers to the game as Mostly Mountainous. That means that, while there aren't a bunch of power roles floating around, there might be one or two.

There are only two power roles in a standard 12-person mini, a cop and a doctor. Therefore, if there are two power roles in this game, it is not a mountainous game. Not even "mostly."

There are several possibilities for why a serial killer would not kill on a given night. They could want to hide the existence of a serial killer. They might have missed the deadline. They might only be able to kill on even numbered nights. Only having one kill doesn't preclude the existence of a serial killer.

99% of the time, SKs are required to kill every single night. If they weren't, they wouldn't kill at all until the late game to hide their presence in the game. When SKs miss their deadline, mods are generally required to pick someone for them to kill at random for this reason. And I invite you to point me to a single game on this entire site where a SK could only kill on even-numbered nights.

This whole conversation is distracting the town

and

has an enormous Occam's Razor flavor to it. What's more likely:
a) that we have two power roles and/or two killing groups in a

mountainous

game, even one that's "mostly" mountainous?
b) or that all this SK shit is being stirred up by mafia trying to muddy the water?

I know what I think is going on, and this is therefore the last thing I'm going to say on the subject of a SK in this game.

FOS: Battousai, Nyktorion

^-- For Tar's benefit, who missed that FOS in my 695. I also didn't intend to remove my FOS on Nyktorion, despite my vote on him.

Who are your 2 best cases for being scum?

I think I've made this clear enough. I'm much more interested in the opinions of others, including yours, because I've already said several times I feel like I'm getting manipulated in this game.

I'm home, reading over what I missed ASAP!

Welcome back, and congrats.

[Tarhalindur]

Something Awesome has not picked up his role PM so far, so I will continue searching for a replacement for thenextepisode.

Edit: SomethingAwesome picked up his role PM after all. Welcome him to the game!

Seventy-Sixth Vote Count:

Nyktorion (1) - Jester

Not Voting (6) - Ectomancer, Battousai (rep. ryan), Nyktorion, Mizzy (rep. Tamuz), RangeroftheNorth (rep. UnofficialRulerofEveryone who rep. RangeroftheNorth who rep. Dean Harper), Something Awesome (rep. thenextepisode)

It will take 4 votes to lynch before deadline

FoS Count:

Battousai (1) - Jester
Nyktorion (1) - Jester

Final Deadline:

May 4, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6)

[Battousai]

99% of the time, SKs are required to kill every single night. If they weren't, they wouldn't kill at all until the late game to hide their presence in the game. When SKs miss their deadline, mods are generally required to pick someone for them to kill at random for this reason. And I invite you to point me to a single game on this entire site where a SK could only kill on even-numbered nights.

This is my first mini game and mountainous game on this site, so I don't know how they work here. But where did you draw these conclusions, from your own experience or what?

[Something Awesome]

ok pm recieved. lets do this!

[Mizzy]

This is my first mini game and mountainous game on this site, so I don't know how they work here. But where did you draw these conclusions, from your own experience or what?

Wiki Entry:

Serial Killer
From MafiaWiki

The Serial Killer is a lone killer without allegiance. The Serial Killer kills once per night, and his goal is to be the sole survivor. Frequently they are not allowed by the Game Moderator to forgo their night kill.

[Nyktorion]

99% of the time, SKs are required to kill every single night. If they weren't, they wouldn't kill at all until the late game to hide their presence in the game. When SKs miss their deadline, mods are generally required to pick someone for them to kill at random for this reason. And I invite you to point me to a single game on this entire site where a SK could only kill on even-numbered nights.

This whole conversation is distracting the town and has an enormous Occam's Razor flavor to it. What's more likely:
a) that we have two power roles and/or two killing groups in a mountainous game, even one that's "mostly" mountainous?
b) or that all this SK shit is being stirred up by mafia trying to muddy the water?

I know what I think is going on, and this is therefore the last thing I'm going to say on the subject of a SK in this game.

I think I need to point out how we even came to the SK debate. It started with your vote on Battousai and a discussion about whether your vote might have been too risky. Obviously, if we are already in LyLo, then your vote was a rather bad move, so it boiled down to the question how likely it was that we were in LyLo - and that is where all the discussion about SKs, and the setup in general started. Also, I never claimed that an SK-scenario would be more likely than your scenario (see post #688), but I did say (and I still say) that such a scenario is likely enough to make your quick vote an unnecessarily risky move for the town (in case you are town, that is). Only if you are scum (or even an... SK), you would have no reason to worry that your vote on Battousai would go too far. So I think it would be right to FOS you back here.

FOS: Jester

P.S: I still would like to know from all of you whether you would like a possible one-shot vig who killed in N2 to claim. I still support this idea.

[Mizzy]

P.S: I still would like to know from all of you whether you would like a possible one-shot vig who killed in N2 to claim. I still support this idea.

I'm torn on the idea of a one-shot vig claiming. On one hand, if he is one-shot, then he's no longer a power role and just a normal townie-type, so claiming would be giving us a guaranteed innocent. However, since he'd be unlynchable, he'd basically be signing his own death warrant because I can't imagine the mafia would let him live. I would also love to smack him for not listening to what I said about Rosso.

[Tarhalindur]

EDIT: After review, RangeroftheNorth is being prodded (he has posted enough to avoid immediate replacement).

Ectomancer will be V/LA for at least 2 weeks. Due to the deadline status and the length of his limited access, I am strongly considering replacing him.

I'm failing to post daily vote counts now. Your mod apologizes for slacking off - finals may be coming up, but that's no excuse. - Tar

Seventy-Seventh Vote Count:

Nyktorion (1) - Jester

Not Voting (6) - Ectomancer, Battousai (rep. ryan), Nyktorion, Mizzy (rep. Tamuz), RangeroftheNorth (rep. UnofficialRulerofEveryone who rep. RangeroftheNorth who rep. Dean Harper), Something Awesome (rep. thenextepisode)

It will take 4 votes to lynch before deadline

FoS Count:

Jester (1) - Nyktorion
Battousai (1) - Jester
Nyktorion (1) - Jester

Final Deadline:

May 4, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6)

[Battousai]

P.S: I still would like to know from all of you whether you would like a possible one-shot vig who killed in N2 to claim. I still support this idea.

I'm torn on the idea of a one-shot vig claiming. On one hand, if he is one-shot, then he's no longer a power role and just a normal townie-type, so claiming would be giving us a guaranteed innocent. However, since he'd be unlynchable, he'd basically be signing his own death warrant because I can't imagine the mafia would let him live. I would also love to smack him for not listening to what I said about Rosso.

I think it is up to the vig on whether or not he/she feels like claiming, since it helps narrow the field if they claim, but then they would be killed tonight. I would prefer if they did come out for the benefit of the town, instead of trying to stay alive.

[Something Awesome]

why do I have 2 votes?

Vote count and actual votes show you have 1 vote. Are you planning to get your facts wrong this entire game? I need to establish early whether you have this tendency, as it could contribute unfairly to your lynch later. As I don't see this statement being inherently scummy, it could mean you do it as either town or scum (to the detriment of the town, unfortunately), and so I don't think I'll be lynching you over sloppy play.

I do question why you would be concerned, even if you did have 2 votes, in the random stage. If votes are truly random, then we

should

see occasional votes landing on the same person. In fact, what would be odd is if every single person received exactly 1 vote. Those would be long odds indeed, and I would have to strongly suspect that someone's "random" vote wasn't so random after all.
So why the concern Tamuz?

wow over-reaction much?

I can potentially see an Ecto-Tamuz scumpair. I'll try and meta Mizzy later.

I'm interested to hear what my 'other-half' has to say.

[Battousai]

Why do you see this as a potential Ecto-Tamuz scumpair?

[Mizzy]

Why do you see this as a potential Ecto-Tamuz scumpair?

I want to know, too, considering that Ecto has been that way to multiple people in the game and Tamuz isn't exactly here anymore...it's me, now.

[Tarhalindur]

Deadline in ~120 hours. I will begin searching for a replacement for Ectomancer, since a 2 week absence from a player will likely disrupt the game.

I'm still failing to post daily vote counts now (limited access doesn't count,, vote counts don't take that long to make). Stupid papers and finals (and procrastinating on papers and finals. >.<

Also, Vote Count updated to reflect Jester's post 695. I can't believe I didn't catch that earlier. - Tar

Seventy-Seventh Vote Count:

Nyktorion (1) - Jester

Not Voting (6) - Ectomancer, Battousai (rep. ryan), Nyktorion, Mizzy (rep. Tamuz), RangeroftheNorth (rep. UnofficialRulerofEveryone who rep. RangeroftheNorth who rep. Dean Harper), Something Awesome (rep. thenextepisode)

It will take 4 votes to lynch before deadline

FoS Count:

Jester (1) - Nyktorion
Battousai (1) - Jester
Nyktorion (1) - Jester

Final Deadline:

May 4, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6)

[Jester]

unvote

Not really interested in us lynching someone based on exactly 1 vote. Rock-Paper-Scissors is actually sounding pretty good to me just now and seems just as likely, if not more likely, to hit a scum than what we're doing.

[Mizzy]

I'm still waiting to see some real, concrete content from Something Awesome who replaced in 5 days ago and has only made one post as of yet.

[Tarhalindur]

OhGodMyLife replaces Ectomancer. Welcome him to the game, people!

Seventy-Eighth Vote Count:

Not Voting (6) - Ectomancer, Battousai (rep. ryan), Nyktorion, Mizzy (rep. Tamuz), RangeroftheNorth (rep. UnofficialRulerofEveryone who rep. RangeroftheNorth who rep. Dean Harper), Something Awesome (rep. thenextepisode)

It will take 4 votes to lynch before deadline

FoS Count:

Jester (1) - Nyktorion
Battousai (1) - Jester
Nyktorion (1) - Jester

Final Deadline:

May 4, 2008 at ~12:00 A.M. (GMT -6)

[Battousai]

Welcome to the game, you have a lot of reading to do so thanks for taking the replacement.


Now Jester, I thought you were so sure that I was scum, I mean I wasn't lynched like I would have been if I were town (according to you). So, just because no one seems to support your decision you take your vote off me, is that it?

[OhGodMyLife]

Hey y'all just popping in to say hello and tell you that tomorrow I am devoting time to thoroughly reading the game and posting my thoughts. Deadline is starting to loom so I'll do my best to give us some direction here, as Jester's comment above makes it seem like we're floundering at the moment.

Cheers!
OGML

[Jester]

Now Jester, I thought you were so sure that I was scum, I mean I wasn't lynched like I would have been if I were town (according to you). So, just because no one seems to support your decision you take your vote off me, is that it?

It'd be helpful if you actually read my post before commenting on it.

As a matter of fact, I'm still pretty sure you're scum and your color commentator approach to this game isn't helping. But according to the rules of this game, on deadline, the person with the most votes gets lynched, regardless of the number of votes. Until I unvoted, that was one vote. I'm not interested in anyone being lynched based on one vote, regardless of who places it or why. Guess I'd be a bad vig.

If votes and FOSes are tied at deadline as they currently are, then according to the rules of this game, the lynch apparently becomes random (rock-paper-scissors, whatever that means). Given that there are four other townies in this game besides me, and given that none of them is apparently all that interested in scum-hunting, I'm approaching a belief that a random lynching would be just as effective -- and probably more effective -- than what the town is currently doing.

If you're interested in preventing that, how about an actual contribution from you other than sarcasm, Battousai?

[Battousai]

IMHO, if I thought someone was scum enough to vote for them (not pressure vote but try and lynch vote) then it wouldn't matter to me if there was no other votes at the time.

[OhGodMyLife]

First things first: CONGRATULATIONS MIZZY! Gabriel will need to be in the 2nd generation scummers invitational in 8 or 9 years. Have you made him an account yet?

So I just finished reading the whole thread, which was no easy task given the flame wars and walls of text. I'm glad the unpleasant attitudes seem to have all gotten replaced. Now on to the real game:

Why oh why

isn't

thenextepisode/something awesome dead yet?? He got away with murder when that wagon on him fell apart day one. Seriously guys, his only defense was when somebody else mentioned that he seemed like a VI and he went "yep i r teh noobz." And that was it. Ecto even said at one point that he was worried somebody would unvote at the wrong moment and everyone would follow them off the wagon like lemmings and

that's exactly what happened!

Ecto was even one of the lemmings.

Then the tides shifted, and as I read I noticed that every time somebody would bring TNE back up as a possible lynch candidate, Jester gently dissuaded them. If TNE is scum I'd be utterly shocked if Jester isn't his partner. Something Awesome's (lack of) contribution since replacing only further convinces me that I'm right, as lurking right up to deadline is hugely beneficial to the scum given the deadline lynching policy in this game.

I think TNE got really, really lucky that moz came in and ruined day one. The modkill meant that the joohoo lynch had to wait until day two, leaving us in the situation we're in. However, I agree with Jester that we're not very likely to be in LyLo - a two man scum team makes much more sense balance wise, and every mountainous game I know only has two scum.

I also think a one-shot vig is much more likely than a serial killer (who I guess would have to be an arsonist?), and that the kill flavor may have come from tar's frustration with the heavily inactive rosso. I'll second, third, whatever the call for a one-shot vig to claim, as a confirmed townie will make our job of finding scum a lot easier.

I'll go back through and put together a post with quotes and everything at some point but reading this game took about three hours and it was pretty exhausting so I'm not up to that right now.

Placed at the end for the mod's convenience:

Vote: Something Awesome