Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

[JDodge]

And forewarning of the hammer is

extremely

pro-town.

Thanks for this, can you tell me what other actions that you've made are pro-town?

I don’t like the insinuation. I made that statement in reference to JD who was trying to say my warning of the hammer was anti-town. I’m assuming the question is rhetorical.

Forewarning of the hammer is not anti-town

only when you are giving notice longer than 48 hours

. Not everyone can check every day - expecting people to check every two days is reasonable, though.

[Sethaniel]

@Ythill: Because gob brought it up in post 266.

[goborage]

@ Seth "So from what I gather you think I'm suspicious but not Dave, Ythill, or JD? Why not?"

[Andycyca]

Vote Count:

Ythill- 1 (JDodge)

Not voting (5): goborage, Dave, Sethaniel, camisade, Ythill

4 to lynch.

---

Strike count

[mrow]Player[col]Strikes camisade[col] Dave[col] goborage[col] JDodge[col]X Sethaniel[col]X Ythill[col] [/quote]

[Ythill]

Forewarning of the hammer is not anti-town only when you are giving notice longer than 48 hours.

Thank you, oh great decider of arbitrary deadline criteria.

My criteria were as follows. I had a date with my wife that night. I checked the thread before we went out and saw that the people who had explicitly stalled (and another wagoneer) had posted again after my warning. None of them had unvoted.

Call it scummy if you like, of course, but I wasn't waiting for avin (who had been gone for a week) so the

only

person I dissed was cam.

JD, don't you find it suspicious that gob and seth asked the hammer to be withheld but didn't unvote after the forewarning? Or are you tunneling so hard on me that you're not hunting anymore?

[JDodge]

Forewarning of the hammer is not anti-town only when you are giving notice longer than 48 hours.

Thank you, oh great decider of arbitrary deadline criteria.

I like for people to post every 48 hours in games that I mod, although I generally don't enforce until 72 - not arbitrary. It's based on actually knowing how play works here. "A few hours" is even more arbitrary.

My criteria were as follows. I had a date with my wife that night. I checked the thread before we went out and saw that the people who had explicitly stalled (and another wagoneer) had posted again after my warning. None of them had unvoted.

Your point here being...?

Call it scummy if you like, of course, but I wasn't waiting for avin (who had been gone for a week) so the

only

person I dissed was cam.

What did you stand to lose by waiting? Someone might unvote and make you miss your chance perhaps?

JD, don't you find it suspicious that gob and seth asked the hammer to be withheld but didn't unvote after the forewarning? Or are you tunneling so hard on me that you're not hunting anymore?

Gob is very pro-town and I've already stated that I find Seth suspicious. And I find it perfectly reasonable for them to leave their votes there - as an attempt to pressure avin, unvoting would have harmed that greatly.

[Sethaniel]

JD, don't you find it suspicious that gob and seth asked the hammer to be withheld but didn't unvote after the forewarning?

@Ythill: Why are you saying I asked for the hammer to be withheld?

@Gob: I do think it's strange that JD and Ythill both seem to agree that you are decidedly pro-town, even though they disagree on almost everything else.

[goborage]

@Seth - Ya I guess we're a three man mafia team. What do you think of Dave?

@ JD - What would you think of an FBI-claim today?

[JDodge]

@ JD - What would you think of an FBI-claim today?

I would first think "why didn't this happen yesterday" and then think "do it now".

[Sethaniel]

@gob: I think Dave is trying to stay under the radar as much as possible. He only really seems to say anything concrete when he's pushed. Could be scummy, could just be newbie.

[goborage]

Here's what I thought out:

Right now we have 3 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK (50/50 shot). If FBI were to claim and give us his search result it'd be 3 town (but 1 is confirmed), 2 mafia, 1 SK (3 scum out of 5 = 60% shot at hitting scum) plus the info on a person who isn't SK (but may be mafia).

3 FBI-claim possibilities:

a) hit mafia - SK will kill finder and Day 3 will be 2 town, 1 mafia, 1 SK - lylo: if town doesn't hit SK they lose.

b) Best case (in the FBI claim scenario): hit SK - Day 3 will be 3 town (1 confirmed), 2 mafia - lylo

c) Worse case scenario is we hit town and are left with 2 town (1 is a FBI), 2 mafia, 1 SK on Night 2. The SK cannot kill the FBI or he'll lose. So he has to either gamble on a 2/3 chance of hitting mafia or not NK. The FBI also gets another search chance.

Day 3: If the SK bags a mafia then we have 2 town (1 is confirmed), 1 mafia, and 1 SK. Lylo: if town doesn't hit SK it loses.

Day 3: If the SK chooses not to NK we have 2 town (1 is confirmed), 2 mafia and 1 SK. Lylo: if town doesn't hit mafia it loses.

Non-claim Scenarios

If we don't have our FBI claim, we're at 50/50 for hitting scum.

The scenario for b) is pretty much the same except it would be less likely that we actually hit the SK. (KIND OF BAD compared to FBI claim b))

scenario c) makes NKing mafia harder for the SK because it adds the possibility of the SK hitting the FBI. (BAD compared to FBI-claim c))

scenario a) will change a lot. W/o the FBI claim the lynch will be harder. But if we lynch mafia we'll have 3 town, 1 mafia, 1 SK night 2. Day 3 can either be 2 town (there's a possibility that FBI is alive), 1 mafia, 1 SK - lylo OR 3 town (an FBI in there somewhere) and 1 SK (which is the very best possible scenario and only possible without an FBI claim, unfortunately it is unlikely to happen). (GOOD compared to FBI-claim a))

I apologize if this is hard to follow - my head is feeling kind of fuzzy. My conclusion is that an FBI claim may be a good idea right now. It's the most conservative plan but it does have its downsides. Everyone please read over what I wrote and point out any problems with it. There may be a scenario that I've neglected.

[Ythill]

Replies first, then I'll get down to the business of looking at the evidence...

I like for people to post every 48 hours in games that I mod, although I generally don't enforce until 72 - not arbitrary. It's based on actually knowing how play works here.

This is nothing but an appeal to authority. Your experience doesn't make you right about everything and, in fact, you've already demonstrated a less-than-perfect knowledge of the game with your D1 mass-claim argument.

Your point here being...?

That I had criteria and that they were less arbitrary than yours. For example, I might have posted a 48 hour notice and had nobody post between that and the hammer. My "few hours" was based on checking the thread later and, seeing that 3/4 wagoneers had posted without unvoting, I figured enough time had passed.

What did you stand to lose by waiting? Someone might unvote and make you miss your chance perhaps?

You're mixing suspicions again. The SK (whom you accuse me of being) gains nothing from a quick lynch. Your suggestion here only befits mafia. Are you sure you don't want to start claiming I'm mafia?

@Ythill: Why are you saying I asked for the hammer to be withheld?

My bad. Reading back, the post I was referring to was #233 which was posted by Dave, not Seth. Sorry about that. Been working too many hours lately.

I do think it's strange that JD and Ythill both seem to agree that you are decidedly pro-town...

My "decidedly pro-town" read came before gob's shenanigans of stalling while failing to unvote. This sullies gob a bit in my mind, though not enough to call him mafia. I'm thinking that, if gob is not town, he's more likely the SK than mafia.

[JDodge]

Replies first, then I'll get down to the business of looking at the evidence...

I like for people to post every 48 hours in games that I mod, although I generally don't enforce until 72 - not arbitrary. It's based on actually knowing how play works here.

This is nothing but an appeal to authority. Your experience doesn't make you right about everything and, in fact, you've already demonstrated a less-than-perfect knowledge of the game with your D1 mass-claim argument.

#1 - Needless ad hom.

#2 - Strawman - I never claimed that my experience made me correct. I stated my opinion on the argument., something that

you asked for

.

Your point here being...?

That I had criteria and that they were less arbitrary than yours. For example, I might have posted a 48 hour notice and had nobody post between that and the hammer. My "few hours" was based on checking the thread later and, seeing that 3/4 wagoneers had posted without unvoting, I figured enough time had passed.

This is indeed the case. I fully intend to hammer, but I will not stand for whining about it being out of the blue. You have a few hours to pull your vote if you are uncomfortable with an Avinas lynch. Avinas has a few hours to claim.

Why are you lying? What are you trying to cover up?

What did you stand to lose by waiting? Someone might unvote and make you miss your chance perhaps?

You're mixing suspicions again. The SK (whom you accuse me of being) gains nothing from a quick lynch. Your suggestion here only befits mafia. Are you sure you don't want to start claiming I'm mafia?

The SK gains just as much.

I have already argued this

. I am again asserting that you have as much of a reason as mafia would.

[Ythill]

Based on the events of yesterday, my current views are as follows. Dave and Cam are the most likely mafia. Either Gob or Seth are the SK. JD is town.

I’m not opposed to a D2 FBI claim but I’m also not sure about gob’s projections. I think the chances for town might be even better than he’s claiming.

One negative side is the risk that the FBI investigated Jenter. I don’t think this is likely. I believe that the FBI investigated JD, myself, or Seth. It’s obvious that the FBI got an innocent read, otherwise he’d have claimed already and we’d be on D3.

So… assuming FBI

did not

investigate Jenter and

did

hit innocent last night…

We have two confirmations as far as today’s lynch is concerned, because the best strategy will be to grant immunity to the FBI

and

his innocent. I say this because I believe lynching the SK is most beneficial to town today.

If we go by this strategy, there is a 50/50 chance that the innocent is mafia. If he is, there is a 2 in 4 chance of hitting mafia or SK with the lynch. If the innocent is town, there is a 3 in 4 chance of hitting anti-town with the lynch. In either case, if town is lynched, the SK might no-kill but, even if he kills, he has a 2 in 3 chance of hitting mafia.

So… every chance the town gets to catch scum is 50% or better and the pool of options diminishes substantially with each failed attempt. And we are in a scenario where either we trade scum for FBI straight across, or the FBI is guaranteed a second investigation.

I believe an FBI claim is the right move for today

so long as he did not investigate Jenter

.

[goborage]

cop-claim scenario c) Day 3 where the SK chooses not to NK is auto loss for town. My new conclusion is that if you are certain you can hit scum then the FBI claim is bad. If you are uncertain then an FBI claim may be good.

[Ythill]

#1 - Needless ad hom.

#2 - Strawman - I never claimed that my experience made me correct. I stated my opinion on the argument., something that you asked for.

#1 - Ad hom? Fair enough. I don't think it was needless considering the appeal to authority.

#2 - Show where I asked. You said something was scummy. I said it was pro-town. You said it was only pro-town under certain circumstances. I called those circumstances arbitrary. You said they were not arbitrary because of your modding experience. Period.

Why are you lying? What are you trying to cover up?

There was no lie. I gave a "few hours" warning. I was vague on purpose.

I checked back a "few hours" later to find that 3/4 had posted and I hammered. If I had checked back to find nobody had posted, I

probably

would have made a check-in post. Fact is, I didn't hammer until 3/4 of the wagon had posted.

The SK gains just as much.

This argument is the content equivilent of "nuh-uh!"

The SK

must

find at least one scum before D3. That fact is apparent in our current situation, where the SK may be forced to no-kill tonight. A quick-lynch is not a benefit to somone who must find scum. Nor is a townie lynch a benefit to the SK until one mafia hangs.

Let me guess, your reply is going to be some variant of "nuh-uh," right?

[goborage]

Based on the events of yesterday, my current views are as follows. Dave and Cam are the most likely mafia. Either Gob or Seth are the SK. JD is town.

I’m not opposed to a D2 FBI claim but I’m also not sure about gob’s projections. I think the chances for town might be even better than he’s claiming.

How'd you connect Dave and Cam as mafia? I don't see how you can be so sure that Seth or I are SK either.

If there's something wrong with my projections can you address them directly? Don't just give it a quick glance and dismiss it - what exactly is wrong with them?

@JD - just to be clear, you think Ythill is SK?

[Ythill]

How'd you connect Dave and Cam as mafia?

Cam was the sleeper on the avin wagon. Dave was staying away because of that, but keeping his options open, until pressure forced him on. Cam chimed in with you to defend Dave, but his defenses seemed more contrived and argumentative.

I also have suspicions against them individually, which is the main reason I named them.

I don't see how you can be so sure that Seth or I are SK either.

Easy. If Dave + cam = mafia, that only leaves me, JD, you, and Seth. I know I'm town and I'm almost as sure that JD is, which leaves you and Seth.

If there's something wrong with my projections can you address them directly?

Sorry. I did but it kind of got lost in my own projections. I think that you put too much weight on finding mafia because I believe finding the SK is more important today. So I think that leaving the FBI's innocent out of the possible lynches for today is a good strategic move and your numbers don't suggest that.

Other than that, I think your projections look right, though it did lose me a little at the end (as you foresaw).

Considering my adjustment (immunity for the N1 FBI target) I think an FBI claim is the best option today

as long as he didn't investigate Jenter

(which is another possibility you missed).

I also don't see how we could possibly be "certain [we] can hit scum."

[JDodge]

@JD - just to be clear, you think Ythill is SK?

I think Ythill is

some

form of scum. And given that he is a better lead than my second suspect (Seth), I'm willing to gamble on that. I think he is slightly more likely SK than scum as it is incredibly difficult to link him to anyone in particular, and I would be more sure if he wasn't making so many good points as to why he's more likely scum than SK. Glad that he's being helpful in building a case against himself, though.

#2 - Show where I asked. You said something was scummy. I said it was pro-town. You said it was only pro-town under certain circumstances. I called those circumstances arbitrary. You said they were not arbitrary because of your modding experience. Period.

I was under the impression you had asked - my memory is slightly faulty, you see. Regardless, I was giving my

opinion

- my modding experience has lead

to

my opinion, and if you want to discount it based on that go ahead and discount everything I've said as my entire case against you is based off of things I have learned in my

playing

experience.

I was not in any way stating that my opinion was better than yours because of experience. I was pointing out that I have gained a knowledge from said experience that allows me to judge how long is long enough in my own opinion.

There was no lie. I gave a "few hours" warning. I was vague on purpose.

I checked back a "few hours" later to find that 3/4 had posted and I hammered. If I had checked back to find nobody had posted, I probably would have made a check-in post. Fact is, I didn't hammer until 3/4 of the wagon had posted.

How is "a few hours" less arbitrary than 48 or 3 or 72? How is vagueness in any way helpful to the town in this instance except as a fearmongering tool? And why are you discounting that 4th person? It is implied based on the 3/4 that a majority of the

wagon

thought it was a good idea, but that completely discounts the opinions of the other 4 people (assuming you yourself thought it was a good idea), which makes up roughly half the town as well as a majority of the town aside from yourself - and this included one person (myself) who was vocally opposed to the hammer.. In other words, you left half the town out of your entire decision-making process, in essence relying on the opinions of a scant 3 people.

This argument is the content equivilent of "nuh-uh!"

The SK must find at least one scum before D3. That fact is apparent in our current situation, where the SK may be forced to no-kill tonight. A quick-lynch is not a benefit to somone who must find scum. Nor is a townie lynch a benefit to the SK until one mafia hangs.

Let me guess, your reply is going to be some variant of "nuh-uh," right?

1.) There was no argument presented, that was laid there so I could see your proof of your argument before providing proof of my own (burden of proof, procedurals, move along)

2.) Unless the SK is near-certain that the person they're lynching is scum, in which case they would want to lynch before they missed their chance.

3.) Needless attack.

[Ythill]

I think Ythill is

some

form of scum... and I would be more sure if he wasn't making so many good points as to why he's more likely scum than SK.

Ah how the story changes. I suppose I should start arguing that I'm town.

I was not in any way stating that my opinion was better than yours because of experience.

It was heavily implied.

How is "a few hours" less arbitrary than 48 or 3 or 72?

The phrase is not. The actual timing of the hammer, being based on players' actions rather than an incriment of time, is less arbitrary. Moreover, you applying that magical number to whether someone else's actions are scummy or not makes it even more arbitrary, which was my point.

How is vagueness in any way helpful to the town in this instance except as a fearmongering tool?

A specific warning could effect the actions of the scum. For example, a player who checks in 11 hours after a 10 hour limit has been set.

It also wouldn't allow flexibility on my part. If I'd said, "I'll hammer in six hours," and then checked in six hours later to see that nobody had posted, I'd have to choose between going back on my stated course of action or hammering with zero feedback, both detrimental to town.

Finally, the vague statement "a few hours" conveys a sense of urgency, motivating concerned players to post and, if they are serious about waiting, to unvote immediately.

There was no argument presented...

That's what I was saying. It was a stance masquerading as an argument and I wanted to pull the mask off.

Unless the SK is near-certain that the person they're lynching is scum, in which case they would want to lynch before they missed their chance.

The same would be true of a townie. So your statement amounts to

Ythill is the SK because he did this thing that is a likely action from any role.

Needless attack.

Counter attack. And it wasn't needless. You may be town but I'm not about to let you push me around. We can't afford the mislynch.

Quite fun arguing with you, BTW.

[Sethaniel]

A few quick thoughts:

SK thoughts:

JD has been pushing for an FBI claim since day 1. Seems likely he would have claimed if he were the FBI, especially given his post #283.

Ythill now seems to be advocating a claim. Unless he is the FBI and investigated Jenter. Unlikely, since Jenter didn't really seem to be on his radar Day 1.

gob made a set of posts trying to figure out mathematically whether or not it would be good for FBI to claim. I didn't really follow all of it, I'm terrible at math. I think his argument came down in favor of a claim. It's interesting that he asked JD's opinion of an FBI claim today. It's possible he is the FBI, trying to decide whether or not to claim. It's also possible he's the SK, trying to lure the FBI into claiming while making it look as though JD is most responsible for the claim.

Cam hasn't said anything recently on the FBI issue.

Dave hasn't said anything since Day 1.

[Dave]

I will re read and post soon, Sorry for the inactivity

[Ythill]

@ Seth: We have no consensus as to whether or not the FBI should claim, and obviously he hasn't so he, at least, isn't ready to. Why are you trying to out him? What is your opinion on an FBI claim today?

Thankfully, your exploration of this topic is entirely WIFOM. There is only one person we can be absolutely sure is not the FBI, but I'm not going to give a name or a reason.

I don't know why you said, "Ythill now

seems

to be advocating a claim," (italics mine). This is now my third time explicitly stating that, IMO, the best move at this point is an FBI claim

unless he investigated Jenter

. I've already explained why.

[JDodge]

I was not in any way stating that my opinion was better than yours because of experience.

It was heavily implied.

Yet it was not explicitly stated - it was an assumption on your part. I'm tempted to say that this is likely a null-tell anyways, so that's immaterial.

How is "a few hours" less arbitrary than 48 or 3 or 72?

The phrase is not. The actual timing of the hammer, being based on players' actions rather than an incriment of time, is less arbitrary. Moreover, you applying that magical number to whether someone else's actions are scummy or not makes it even more arbitrary, which was my point.

Then isn't any criteria applied to any one person in essence arbitrary, thus meaning that any point that can be made against anyone can be brushed off in a similar fashion? You can say that only scum uses the word parakeet on Tuesdays, but where does that come from? You can say that only town would attack someone in such way, but how is that not arbitrary in and of itself?

The fact of the matter is that mafia is in and of itself a game based in the theoretical and arbitrary; very little can be taken as

fact

and everything can be taken in any way you wish. This is why logic is more and more becoming a failing point in mafia and psychoanalysis is becoming a great and highly useful tool - you have to try to understand people's intentions by working on as many levels of competence, intelligence and rationality as humanly possible. My point being that from the expected levels of competence, intelligence and rationality from you, I cannot see the townish reason for the hammer like that.

How is vagueness in any way helpful to the town in this instance except as a fearmongering tool?

A specific warning could effect the actions of the scum. For example, a player who checks in 11 hours after a 10 hour limit has been set.

It also wouldn't allow flexibility on my part. If I'd said, "I'll hammer in six hours," and then checked in six hours later to see that nobody had posted, I'd have to choose between going back on my stated course of action or hammering with zero feedback, both detrimental to town.

Finally, the vague statement "a few hours" conveys a sense of urgency, motivating concerned players to post and, if they are serious about waiting, to unvote immediately.

Meh, fair enough.

There was no argument presented...

That's what I was saying. It was a stance masquerading as an argument and I wanted to pull the mask off.

It was not an attempt at an argument. There was no mask. I wanted your proof of your argument so I could go from there.

Unless the SK is near-certain that the person they're lynching is scum, in which case they would want to lynch before they missed their chance.

The same would be true of a townie. So your statement amounts to

Ythill is the SK because he did this thing that is a likely action from any role.

Damnit, you're right. Now that I think of it, SK has even less reason than town - he can just nightkill instead.

Unvote

for now, I have better leads to pursue.

Vote: Sethaniel

Case forthcoming when I have the time.

[Ythill]

This is why logic is more and more becoming a failing point in mafia and psychoanalysis is becoming a great and highly useful tool - you have to try to understand people's intentions by working on as many levels of competence, intelligence and rationality as humanly possible.

QFT. I'm interested in your case against Seth.

I'd like

everyone

to give a simple yes or no answer. Do you think the FBI should claim before we move on? We already know JD's opinion and my own.

I'm withholding my vote until we have consensus on the claim.