Mini 551- Mod Abandoned

[Korts]

Great, so vote jerubbaal.

[Battle Mage]

FoS: BattleMage

, because he pisses me off...

go hump yourself. No seriously-do it. I think your problem is you havent had any 'Jiggy-time' in a while (if ever).

If not, please feel free to explain to me why you are so eager to defend Sensfan.

BM

[jerubbaal]

Risk-reward? Derfderf.

If you can't say that the chances of SF being scum are much higher than mine, you're not reading the thread. And the reward is exactly the same - we win. I can't believe you're all still not thinking properly.

[Shanba]

Risk-reward? Derfderf.

If you can't say that the chances of SF being scum are much higher than mine, you're not reading the thread. And the reward is exactly the same - we win. I can't believe you're all still not thinking properly.

Explain to me how we win if we lynch SensFan and he is scum. Go on.

[Shanba]

for the record, please don't insult my intelligence. If I am doubting your alignment, it's because there is reasonable room for doubt. So. Please, I am waiting.

[jerubbaal]

If SF is scum, I'm confirmed, CES is confirmed, and Korts is confirmed. Scum can't kill. We systematically lynch all the unconfirmed. Game over.

I am not insulting your intelligence by calling out an error in your logic. Don't make it personal.

[Shanba]

If SF is scum, I'm confirmed, CES is confirmed, and Korts is confirmed. Scum can't kill. We systematically lynch all the unconfirmed. Game over.

I am not insulting your intelligence by calling out an error in your logic. Don't make it personal.

(As a sidenote, saying "derf derf" whenever someone doesn't agree with you tends to make it)

Anyway, there are some crucial things that your logic overlooks.

1: CESc and Korts are not confirmed. The possibility that scum knew or were told that the setup was an all roleblocker one is too great to overlook. Whenever such a game is run on scumchat, first priority is making sure a massclaim doesn't clear half the town or out a scum who didn't realise this was the setup. If scum did know, then it simply becomes a matter of who claimed first. Furthermore, it is possible CESc worked out that it was an all roleblocker setup from the comments at the time. It would be difficult, but not impossible.

2: You yourself would not be confirmed, just as Sens is not confirmed if you turn up scum. It would be a fairly neat gambit to claim his own scumpartner as scum - I have myself considered such a gambit before, but I've never had the opportunity to put it into practice. Regardless, the possibility is there.

3: The possibility is still there that scum have something in their arsenal to protect against breaking strategies, say an unroleblockable godfather (not a role I've seen before, but there's always a first time).

Note that 2 means that you being scum is not an autowin for town either, but it is still a greater reward to have a semi-cleared cop than a semi-cleared roleblocker.

[jerubbaal]

1. I consider the odds of 1 occuring approximately zero, especially as SF claimed cop. He wouldn't have claimed cop if he knew the scenario.

2. SF and myself being gambitting scum at this point would be patently idiotic. It would result in a dead scum either way, which locks down the scumkill, which is the only chance they have to win right now. This rests on the assumption that there is someone with a brain on the scum team, which isn't an absolute certainty, but I think you can admit I would have recognized this if I were a scum.

3. Actually a valid point. I hadn't considered this. Regardless, the situation is similar with either an extra cop or roleblocker. If they have a gf, cop wouldn't do us much good at this point anyways. There can be any number of hosers for any role, so I think the best thing we can do here is consider the play of the people here and make the best decision about who is scum.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

3: The possibility is still there that scum have something in their arsenal to protect against breaking strategies, say an unroleblockable godfather (not a role I've seen before, but there's always a first time).

3. Actually a valid point. I hadn't considered this.

I could easily think of roles that would unbreak the scenario even with a cop (EG unblockable scum/SK, a Godfather, what have you).

Adding a cop does completely break the scenario, and if the scum had a counter to the cop, it would have been used night 1. There is absolutely no reasonable scenario in which SF could be cop and this still be even a remotely balanced game.

Well, there could be a Godfather, that seems like an easy inclusion that would unbreak the scenario. There could be several Godfathers. And/or an unblockable SK. Or unblockable scum and SensFan is still alive just to mess with us. Hell, you could be an unknowing Miller for all we know. Anyway, there are several ways this could be constructed that does not result in us breaking the game.

We've already been over this. Can we just lynch jerub now?

[Shanba]

1. I consider the odds of 1 occuring approximately zero, especially as SF claimed cop. He wouldn't have claimed cop if he knew the scenario.

Hmm. You have a point here. Ok, I'll grant you that if SensFan is scum then scum probably weren't warned about the setup, and korts/CESc are very very close to cleared. (99.999%)

2. SF and myself being gambitting scum at this point would be patently idiotic. It would result in a dead scum either way, which locks down the scumkill, which is the only chance they have to win right now. This rests on the assumption that there is someone with a brain on the scum team, which isn't an absolute certainty, but I think you can admit I would have recognized this if I were a scum.

Here, however, I disagree. If you were both scum, it would essentially be a bussing move - something that is not that uncommon in mafia. I once bussed both my scum partners day 1 of a mini and went on to win the game because the town convinced themselves that there was no way I would do that as scum. If Sensfan is scum, then sacrificing a scumbuddy is just about his only chance of survival - you coming up scum would mean he could live a long time yet. And if he gets lynched, then town will think it unlikely he picked a scum partner to try to get lynched, and you may well live a while.

How does a dead scum lock down the scumkill, for the record? I must be having a "derf" moment, cause I don't get it.

3. Actually a valid point. I hadn't considered this. Regardless, the situation is similar with either an extra cop or roleblocker. If they have a gf, cop wouldn't do us much good at this point anyways. There can be any number of hosers for any role, so I think the best thing we can do here is consider the play of the people here and make the best decision about who is scum.

The situation is not similar with an extra cop as opposed to an extra roleblocker, for the simple reason that your worth is diluted by the large amount of roleblockers already present in the game. All an extra roleblocker is, essentially, is another warm body for the town - anything he could do another roleblocker could do anyway. An extra semi-cleared roleblocker, however, would be useful for avoiding scum being matched together - that's about its only worth.

[jerubbaal]

If there's only two scum remaining, them actually successfully killing would allow us to conclude a

lot

from our knowledge of pairings. It would not be difficult at all to figure out where the kill originated from, and easily allow us to confirm multiple townies at once with knowledge from just a lynch or two.

Scum losing their NK is losing them the only chance they have to win this game. That's why it's preposterous to suggest SF would be bussing me. It's very different from a normal mafia game, where scum have an NK to make up for a shortage in numbers. Here, if scum even manage to get down to a 1-on-1 situation, it's a draw.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

I'm back, and my opinion hasn't changed.

We

must

force SF to break his PR.

SF's refusal to do so up until this point has proven his guilt in my eyes. Because of the f'ed up game, everyone here has gotten too emotional too see that getting SF to break his PR and then lynch accordingly is the very best play right now.

[Shanba]

I'm back, and my opinion hasn't changed.

We

must

force SF to break his PR.

SF's refusal to do so up until this point has proven his guilt in my eyes. Because of the f'ed up game, everyone here has gotten too emotional too see that getting SF to break his PR and then lynch accordingly is the very best play right now.

Emotional my dear fellow? Emotions have nothing to do with it.

That said...

after my last exchange with jerubbaal, he's looking stronger town to me than he was before. Oh the infinite vagaries of my mental processes. The more likely jerub is town, the greater the risk in killing Sens is reduced. Ris/reward again. Yet which is the correct option. Argh. I can't think properly. Perhaps I should not be posting with a headache. Perhaps I shall stop typing now. That's a good idea. I'll do that.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

after my last exchange with jerubbaal, he's looking stronger town to me than he was before. Oh the infinite vagaries of my mental processes. The more likely jerub is town, the greater the risk in killing Sens is reduced. Ris/reward again. Yet which is the correct option. Argh. I can't think properly. Perhaps I should not be posting with a headache. Perhaps I shall stop typing now. That's a good idea. I'll do that.

My point exactly.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Asking SF to claim is pointless, as I've already explained. As long as the alternative is lynching jerubbaal, asking him to claim is worse than the alternative/lynching jerubbaal if SF's town, and won't happen if he's scum. It would only be relevant if the alternative was to lynch him; then it would be in his best interest to get himself modkilled if he's town. Right now, it's not.

Last I checked, consensus was that jerubbaal - and not SF - was the lynch today. Has anyone changed their minds?

Imat, ting =), Battle Mage (and Shanba) - you're the ones not voting atm. Why not?

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Last I checked, consensus was that jerubbaal - and not SF - was the lynch today. Has anyone changed their minds?

Consensus isn't, and has never been, that jerubbaal is the lynch.

[Korts]

CESc, maybe you and jeru don't agree with the plan of jeru's lynch, but everyone else does. That's a majority, isn't it? I'm not native english, but the way I interpret "consensus", it's just a synonym for "majority". Correct me, though, if I'm wrong.

The fact is, the majority of the town is willing to lynch jerubbaal. I, for one, don't really care whether SF breaks his PR, but I'd rather see him do it than not. It would help us somewhat.

[Battle Mage]

CESc, maybe you and jeru don't agree with the plan of jeru's lynch, but everyone else does. That's a majority, isn't it? I'm not native english, but the way I interpret "consensus", it's just a synonym for "majority". Correct me, though, if I'm wrong.

The fact is, the majority of the town is willing to lynch jerubbaal. I, for one, don't really care whether SF breaks his PR, but I'd rather see him do it than not. It would help us somewhat.

Just wanted to say that i too am currently against Jerub's lynch-at least until we get a conclusion about Sens.

BM

[Battle Mage]

Asking SF to claim is pointless, as I've already explained. As long as the alternative is lynching jerubbaal, asking him to claim is worse than the alternative/lynching jerubbaal if SF's town, and won't happen if he's scum. It would only be relevant if the alternative was to lynch him; then it would be in his best interest to get himself modkilled if he's town. Right now, it's not.

Last I checked, consensus was that jerubbaal - and not SF - was the lynch today. Has anyone changed their minds?

Imat, ting =), Battle Mage (and Shanba) - you're the ones not voting atm. Why not?

Im not voting because im kinda waiting on Sens. why is Shanba listed in Brackets? Also, how can you refer to a consensus when opinions change all the time? If there was a consensus, Jerub would be dead.

BM

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

CESc, maybe you and jeru don't agree with the plan of jeru's lynch, but everyone else does. That's a majority, isn't it? I'm not native english, but the way I interpret "consensus", it's just a synonym for "majority". Correct me, though, if I'm wrong.

Consensus is a general agreement on a topic within a group. Among the players here, there are definitely players who are

not

fine with jerubbaal being lynched, and I'm not even counting jerubbaal himself right now.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Definition of consensus. I meant consensus as in majority of opinion, not general agreement or concord. That should've been obvious, really.

Just wanted to say that i too am currently against Jerub's lynch-at least until we get a conclusion about Sens.

Conclusion how?

why is Shanba listed in Brackets?

Because he just talked about why how he's reluctant.

[Shanba]

Asking SF to claim is pointless, as I've already explained. As long as the alternative is lynching jerubbaal, asking him to claim is worse than the alternative/lynching jerubbaal if SF's town, and won't happen if he's scum. It would only be relevant if the alternative was to lynch him; then it would be in his best interest to get himself modkilled if he's town. Right now, it's not.

Last I checked, consensus was that jerubbaal - and not SF - was the lynch today. Has anyone changed their minds?

Imat, ting =), Battle Mage (and Shanba) - you're the ones not voting atm. Why not?

If there isn't a majority voting for jerub's death, which there isn't, as you freely point out yourself, then there isn't a consensus.

Has anyone made a case on jerub yet? If not, I may do so myself sometime later this weekend in order to draw a comparison between the two and settle my thoughts.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Well, I was under the impression that there was a majority for a jerubbaal lynch, see this post. If I'm wrong about this, well, I'm wrong, and we'll have to go over all the pros and cons again. IMO it boils down to this lynch not being all that important either way; worst case* we pretty much lynch first town and then scum tomorrow, and best case we semi-confirm a cop.

*worst case not including something like SF being town and faking all this.

[Joubert]

What would it mean if SF can't break his PR? And how are we supposed to know he could/couldn't?

[ting =)]

@cave.
There's still discussion going on. I'll vote when I'm either very confident on my choice, or when there's no more discussion.

My current stand:
Don't make SF break his PR.
Don't lynch Jeru.