Mini 578 - Mistery at Montescuro - Game Over!

[mikeburnfire]

Then I must do my part to help you find other options!

...I say right before I disappear for a few days.

[Joudas]

I am feeling pretty good about Guardian as cop. His 'Let me change my vote oh by the way see you in a week guys" play is a little sketchy, though. Especially for the cop - what if the day ends tonight? He's not much use to us as cop if he's not going to be here to investigate someone.

I'm not really convinced on MFB, either, honestly. And I believe DBE's claim, and Near's. This leaves 5 people:

- Dasquian
- Macavenger
- PyroDwarf
- Singing Librarian
- Yosarian2

I'd bet on our scum being among these. I'm specifically not feeling good about PyroDwarf and Mac, maybe Singing Librarian, but the third is a bit of a guess.

[PyroDwarf]

@joudas: I responded to your allegations. As i said, I just wanted to be sure guardian was the cop. I thought he was scummy up untill the point he claimed. I suppose old suspicions die hard. I wasn't trying to direct night choices in any way, I guess I was still under the impression that he was scum.
@MBF: is your refusal to claim supposed to be an insinuation that you are a doctor?

[Claus]

Vote Count!

MBF 5 - Yos2, Macavenger, Dasquian, DBE, Singing Librarian
Macavenger 1 - Near, Guardian

Not voting:

Joudas, Pyrodwarf, MBF

With 10 players alive, it is 6 to lynch!

On other news, Near has not picked an activity prod I send him this Saturday. I'm looking for a replacement. If you want anyone else prodded, feel free to post here/PM me.

[mikeburnfire]

@MBF: is your refusal to claim supposed to be an insinuation that you are a doctor?

Why do you ask? Are searching for Doctors to kill?

My refusal to claim is nothing more than me refusing to acknowledge that the bandwagon on me has little merit.

[Singing Librarian]

FoS: PyroDwarf

Whether you think mbf is insinuating he's a doctor or not, that isn't something town should ever voice, I feel. Any hints to the scum that someone may be a doctor are a bad, bad thing. Scum could have good reasons for flagging it up (e.g. hoping to gain a reaction from the doctor, if there is one), but I can't think of a good reason for a town member to do so.

[PyroDwarf]

I just don't like it, "I'm at L-1, but i refuse to claim" Even if you think your wagon is not good.

[Claus]

Albert B. Rampage replaces Near, effective immediately.

You may now start shaking in your boots

[Albert B. Rampage]

Hello.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'm doing an emergency analysis on MBF, and will prioritize the reading of day 2 which should be completed soon. I urge you not to hammer until I can write out my thoughts.

[Joudas]

Greets, Albert!

[Albert B. Rampage]

Let me write something for the record: I am the worse possible candidate for building a case, but I am about 5 for 5 in lynching scum at the moment. I'll preface this post with a playstyle note: I am much better at detecting genuineness through wording, subtle variances in playtsyle, differences between appropriate emotional responses and deceptive compensating and scum psychology, which branches into general tendencies of mafia players, their mind state, their calculated chance of survival in function of their liberty of actions*, the leeway they give to their scum partners' mistakes and so on so forth. A lot of this has become second nature to me and I find it difficult, and exhausting, to re-invent the wheel.

To allow you to follow my thought process, I will present you my ideas and opinions in the best way I can, but please keep in mind that it is no easy feat to surface all the micro-behaviors that automatically register in my scumdar.

I'm not advocating that you should blindly follow me, in fact I am totally against any kind of sheepishness. However, I am positive that I'll be ten times as useful to you in terms of scumhunting than my predecessor. If Near's niche was to convince you he was not scum, my forte would be to actually

find

your scum. It is a lucky chain of events that he is the one I am replacing.

Enough chit-chat, let's get down to the meat of this post:

FOS: Dasquian

I'll try not to reiterate what has already been written about this subject and only add precise, original content to his case, but keep in mind I do have blind spots and was forced to speedread this second half of the game.

Let me begin by plucking out specific day1 posts from Dasquian's messy unibrow to provide additional context to my day2 analysis:

So you're going to vote Near then, right? Given you think that there's a 68.3% chance I'm bussing him, it follows that you think we're both scum. Near has the bigger bandwagon.

The subject, "DAZ", is documented to exhibit "clinginess-to-town" symptoms, that are often a precursor to scumeopathic diseases. In attaching himself to a town under an imminent threat of deadline lynch, I believe he is following the classic mafia playbook to the letter.

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS) instead of Mr Scummy Near who has lurked all day and is not posting through L-2 and L-1 now? I say "not posting" rather than lurking now since it's the weekend and anyone gets a break for that in my book.

He references the aforementioned book. All joking aside, he is showing subtle signs of knowledge beyond the constrains of what town should know.

His quick turnaround on Near is acceptable as a standalone action, but I will return to my "appropriate emotional response" argument, and go so far as to say that he is completely incongruent with this (smart) move.

THE CORE OF THIS POST:

OK. I can get behind that. I was feeling somewhat trapped by my previous conviction on Near and our proximity to the deadline, but in truth I'm going off it a bit.

Unvote, vote DarlaBlueEyes

I did a quick skim of her posts - things that stand out are:

- Continual scumbuddy hunting/logic. She doesn't seem to hunt individual scum so much as look for the pair, and accuse pairs. I'm not sure if this is a scum-tell, but it is pretty weird. It would be a behaviour scum might fall into more readily, given their own constant awareness of scum-mates.
- "A good townsperson wants the mafia gone, and would be searching for them, therefore the most logical reasoning would be that those laying low are either Scum or a Non-Townie. " is something to come back on if DBE shows up scum, given it suggests her scum-mates would have been active at the time.
- Stuff about Coron's claim you've already covered, and I agree with. Seems like it's a cheap shot at Coron to set him up for tomorrow, because you know he's a tracker.

I'll put my vote back on Near to make sure we get

a

lynch if it goes that way, but this feels better. Near, please stay active and comment on as much as you can, you can always be revoted.

I present you post subject 515 in the timeline, and only 3 days from deadline. This right here is the moneypost.

From this single post here, the scum have spelled their own downfall; considering DAZ is scum, which we have substantial evidence to believe.

Taking in account the terrible timing of this post (just before the 8 page marathon), we can observe several points of interest from it:

• It is DAZ's first departure from his tunnelvision on Near.
  
• The recipient of this unexpected attack is DBE.
  
• DAZ connects DBE to other players, under the assumed prediction that she is scum.
  
  
• More predictions on Coron's alignment, in all likelihood under the belief that he will come off as more town as a result.

Now, let's look at DBE and DAZ. Both on opposing bandwagons. Daz Dillinger here is panting and proclaiming that Coron tells the truth, while Darla is pushing the wagon.

Now, usually pushing a wagon like this would be the tell of an uninformed, goody goody townie. However, Darla is pushing the wagon

behind

Guardian. This basically gives her the alibi of "Guardian did it stronger, harder and faster". So in reality, she

isn't

exposing herself; she's setting up a future defensive gambit.

FOS: Darla

So what do we have ? A scumprophet who knows players' alignment, a scumsuccubus that slips herself inside power role wagons. This particular wagon ended in a train wreck, and she is all the more dubious for it.

ahha, but in reality, a scum knows not to attract attention to themselves, and thus would inhibit less votes for themselves, and thereby winning the game.

on the off chance you get a reckless scum, who gets himself lynched quickly, you can only assume the townspeople are playing it safe in order to not be lynched.

A good townsperson wants the mafia gone, and would be searching for them, therefore the most logical reasoning would be that those laying low are either Scum or a Non-Townie.

I agree with you on some very broad principles, that it benefits scum to lay low more than it benefits town. However I think the rest of your thinking is severely, severely flawed.

Firstly, you are assuming that the scum in this game are good players. This may be true. It's not a safe assumption, though. The last minigame I played we had some impossibly scummy newbie spend days under debate because his actions were so textbook scum. He was scum. Scum make mistakes too.

And even then, if scum don't make mistakes, it's a huge jump to assume they are excellent puppetmasters who can avoid votes all game. Sure, they're better informed and have some buds who are on-side, but it takes mad skills to avoid focus all game.

Thirdly, not getting voted is not a scum-tell even though it benefits scum more directly to not be lynched (ie, town can afford more casualties by game design, scum need to stay not lynched). A good player avoids suspicion whatever his alignment because (Jester roles notwithstanding) it

always

benefits your win condition not to get lynched. A good scum won't get lynched. Neither will a good townie or SK. If someone isn't getting votes, they could be any of those things. Or...

Finally - it's Day 1. We can only cope with so many people getting talked about in detail at a time - chances are that the less scummy half of the town will get through D1 without too much bother. Yos2 and Singing Librarian aren't getting much focus atm, for example - do I think they should? No. Because there are better people to look at and focus needs precisely that - focus. The fact some people have no votes is indicative of little more than the fact other people have been caught in the spotlight more.

QFT

I agree with your views thus why I do not have a FoS on you (the previous was only because of the creepy duck )

I still suspect Mac however.

Furthermore, this post strikes me as two mafia asking each other "do we buss, do we agree, what do we do ?"

I am really not happy with our results, and I feel played.

My results last night, As the watcher, revealed not much, no one else targeted the player that I did.

I am in a toss up as to who I think is scum,
I am very suspicious of a Mac/Dasquain alliance due to the comment (by Mac)

Im still unwilling to vote Dasquian, so you can forget that option.

(Post 670)

I am a bit suspicious of Guardian, but not certain of anything at this point.

DBE distancing from Dasquian, but more importantly, she attempts to connect him to mac. Seriously lol,

they've gotta stop doing this.

Other minor points on Darla:

1)

All that to say Guardian's push for a Coron lynch really seemed out of no where, and his 'Trust Me' well I am afraid I don't have as much trust for him anymore.

(man I feel like I am rambling..sorry =/)

FoS Guardian

This is hypocrisy at its finest, ladies and gentlemen. She's doing exactly what I predicted she would do (damn I wish I was playing this game real-time so I could place preventive measures to avoid this kind of blatant mafia tactics).

2)

ahha, but in reality, a scum knows not to attract attention to themselves, and thus would inhibit less votes for themselves, and thereby winning the game.

She seems to know a lot about scum.

3) Her predecessor was not exactly the epitome of townieness either.

4) A watcher is a claim that is unlikely to be counter-claimed. Not only this, but its rare that there is both a tracker and a watcher in a game.


---


You'd think I'm finished by now, but there's literally a whole bunch of other stuff I should cover before I leave. For example, I feel that both Dasquian and Darla's attempt at ending the day asap as we speak is yet another major scumtell. They want to preserve their lead at the expense of connecting themselves a little further.*

O.K. so let's recapitulate:

DAZ's main suspect was Near, but he suspects Darla on the side and connects her with some various players.

Darla's main suspect is mac, but she suspects DAZ on the side, and connects him with mac.

Its crystal clear to me that they're both enemies of the state.

I have read Yosarian's case on MBF. I feel his OMGUS argument has been misapplied to Mike. I do not endorse a MBF lynch at all.

In fact, I feel that most of it is nonsense that Yosarian got caught up in. Yosarian, please re-allocate your resources to more meaningful campaigns.

Vote: Dasquian

I hope you all realize the very real threat that these two pose to the town.

If you are SOMEHOW still unconvinced, I am open to discussion, as always.

[Albert B. Rampage]

EBWOP

For some reason, I changed the tense mid-sentence. All this should be in the past tense:

DAZ's main suspect was Near, but he suspects Darla on the side and connects her with some various players.

Darla's main suspect is mac, but she suspects DAZ on the side, and connects him with mac.

Yo wassup Joudas.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I've now extensively reviewed the MBF case and find absolutely nothing worth lynching him for.

On the other hand, Darla and Daz just keep on getting worse.

This is the MafiaWiki definition of a watcher:

The Watcher is a somewhat common information role that can target a person at night and learn who targeted that person the same night.

Now watch very closely:

I targeted Dasquian. I am very suspicious of him and Mac.

I think Guardian could possibly be scum but it doesn't fit as well in my mind.

Near is probably a townie, but could be scum I suppose, though I find it doubtful.

I now wish I hadn't been so suspicious of Coron, but he did play it in a manor that promoted suspicion.

Why would you target a player you find suspicious ? Are you looking for power roles ??

[Guardian]

still busy, but im all for voting for duckscum. welcome albert and thanks for replacing.

albert just articulated my sense of smell better than I could.

dbe & dasq makes a lot of sense.

unvote vote: Dasquian

couldn't help reading mscum .

[Joudas]

its rare that there is both a tracker and a watcher in a game.

That's quite a logical pairing, honestly. I'd say the oddball in the group is Guardian with his cop claim, but I'm more inclined to believe we have all 3.

Why would you target a player you find suspicious ? Are you looking for power roles ??

This, I think, is more a matter of her being new to Mafia and not fully understanding roles and role interactions. If this was some devious scum plot, she wouldn't have targeted anyone (since she's not actually a power role), and the whole story would be a fabrication. If she was intelligent scum, she'd have fabricated a better story then this (and targeted, say, Near perhaps, since he was the only claimed townie other then herself at that point).

I'm open for discussion regarding Dasquian - he's on my 'likely suspects' list right now, but DBE, I think, has claimed honestly. I see your points, but I disagree with them.

[Guardian]

i agree with joudas disagreement on w/tracker. but otherwise i dont agree with joudas above.

btw: people need to start voicing their agreement with me that DBE should target me or be lynched tomorrow.

repeat: DBE should target me or be lynched tomorrow. If I'm alive, and DBE claims she targeted someone else, etc etc, then I'm going to support a DBE lynch unless I get a guilty on someone.

[Joudas]

I'll tentatively agree with that. At this time, Guardian is the most logical target for DBE.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'm open for discussion regarding Dasquian - he's on my 'likely suspects' list right now, but DBE, I think, has claimed honestly. I see your points, but I disagree with them.

That's why I'm voting Dasquian.

Tonight, DBE targets Guardian. If he is killed, we will know who the killer scum is.

[Albert B. Rampage]

its rare that there is both a tracker and a watcher in a game.

My friend, I've played maybe 40 games more than you on this site. I've even modded with Claus before.

[Yosarian2]

Welcome to the game, Albert.

You case against Dasquin is interesting, especally the point about his turn-around on Near there towards the end; I'd like to hear him explain that himself. I'm not sure your claim that he's linked to DBE makes a whole lot of sense here, though; at the time he changed his vote to DBE, it felt to me like either Near or DBE was probably going to be lynched. That's be a pretty bold time for a distancing manuever.

I'm also not clear about why you think DBE's claim is so improbable; I haven't often seen a tracker and a watcher in the same game, but I can't see a balance reason why there shouldn't be. In fact, I'd say (cop+watcher+tracker) is probably better balanced then (cop+doc); either a watcher or a tracker has only about a 1/11 chance of finding a scum on night 1, and neither one can ever really make someone a confirmed innocent, so I don't see any balance reasons for it.

Anyway, about the case on MBF; there's a lot of things that bug me about him. I don't like the case he made against Coron right after Coron claimed, and I don't like the OMGUS vote. But the strongest point of my case against him is right here. After supporting the near wagon for a while while also co-concordantly attacking Coron, he suddenly does this, right before the deadline (right before he went to bed, he claims)

I can support disbanding the Near wagon, but I do not want to speed lynch Dasquian.

FOS: Guardian.

You know better than to speedlynch in such a manner.

unvote, vote Coron

. Gonna stop supporting the wagon I don't like and start one I do.

And yes, I am aware of the hypocracy of criticizing Guardian for starting a wagon while starting my own. I don't think either of these wagons are going to go anywhere though.

I have to go to bed now. I am tired and am unable to make coherent posts. Guardian, I disagree with you on everything so far this game. Coron is scummy, I don't want to lynch Near, I don't think Dasq is suspicious, and I don't want to lynch DBE now that she's claimed a power role, but there's only 8 hours until the deadline. I am not going to pick between the two/three. I am just going to vote Coron. Like voting third-party in an American election, my vote will do nothing, but it is what I support.

Basically, that looks just like the kind of manuever I'd be tempted to try if I was scum. MBF pushes the Near lynch all the way to the point where it (appeared) almost certanly inevitable with or without his vote, then he unvotes Near at the last minute, without really giving any good reason for it, and moves his vote over to someone who, by his own standard, he dosn't expect to actually get lynched.

It looks to me like he expected one of two things to happen:
1. Near gets lynched without his help, he gets to keep attacking Coron the next day all day and perhaps get him lynched then, avoids being on a bad wagon at the moment of lynch
2. No-lynch happens, town gets no informaton, he gets to keep attacking Coron the next day.

Either one would be bad for the town, and good for Mike as scum; scum generally don't like to directly lynch TOO many townies themselves, they'd rather try to set it up so a townie gets lynched (or, better yet, a no-lynch happens) and they don't get the blame. And note that Mike basically admitted to motive #2 here, which is really interesting. However, neither way fits with the way a pro-town person should act; if he didn't like the Near wagon, he should have tried to find the town a better wagon, and he should have done it a heck of a lot earlier. Instead, looking back at his posts before that point, you can see that he seems in no rush, that seems to like the way the town was drifting towards a deadline lynch of Near.

Basically, even with his explinations, his actions yesterday just seem more scummy then townie to me; he kind of explained away the OMGUS vote in a way that's plausable, and even the bad case he made against Coron isn't totally unimaginable from a pro-town person (although I hate hate hate hate it), but his actions at the end of the day yesterday just look more like the actions of a scum then the actions of a pro-town person.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'm waiting on MBF to post his thoughts on Dasq, Blueeyes and your case.

[Dasquian]

Good god, a lot of posting while I was playing GTA IV. Unfortunately I don't have time to respond now (bedtime), but I'll address my votes tomorrow. Colour me shocked that Guardian has so merrily jumped on the bandwagon

again

, though.

[Dasquian]

Actually, I made time. I didn't need to be awake for work tomorrow

As for my "turnaround" at the end of yesterday, I'm getting heat for every single bit of that. Apparently it's scummy that I wasn't changing my mind about Near. Apparently it was also scummy that I changed my mind about Near. Apparently it's also scummy that I did it three days before the deadline (but shh, let's temporarily forget about the T minus 8 hours absurdity that actually happened!). So yeah, seems like I could complain I'm getting any heat for backing off from Near when other people did much bigger turnarounds much closer to the deadline.

This is what happened though: I decided Near was the scummiest. He dragged his heels, he stalled the game, he generally refused to react to his bandwagon until a couple of days before the lynch (his claim was Tue 22nd, the day before the deadline). Yos then pointed out that DBE was actually a viable alternative lynch (with three votes), so I moved my vote because she was genuinely scummier at that point, and although Near's play was awful, I was getting less scummy vibes from him. Then, while I was away, DBE claimed a non-specific power-role and Near was pushed to L-1.

On my return, the deadline extension had been refused and Near was at L-1. Given that state of affairs, I was happy for him to be lynched and said so (not sure why I didn't unvote DBE, to be honest though). I was unwilling to hammer Near just to end conversation, but I wish I had since then I went to bed and it all went mental and Coron got lynched. Here's who kicked it off, btw:

vote: Dasquian

to no avail.

Near seems hugely like a mislynch now. I find her saying ' I could have claimed doctor to at least get the real doctor to counter claim. I am a vanilla townie'

so sincere.

I get these super strong vibes around lynches, and when they happen before the lynch, I act on them.

Yeah, I want a last minute bandwagon.

Not on DBE, or Near.

Mac, Duck, both reasonable choices.

ABR, what do you think of Guardian's play?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Guardian is very likely town.