Mafia 74: Minimally Flavoured - Game over!

[pickemgenius]

TOASTER STRUDEL WAS NEVER MENTIONED ONCE BY XY.

Truedat, but TS's predecessor, liamcool, was mentioned by Xyl and even got voted by him.

sorry, must've gotten confused on who replaced who =/


i'll crank one more out tonight.

[pickemgenius]

EGRUNTZ-

Small little quarrel with panzerjager early about no lynching, and random voting.

@Bookitty
You're the one rushing to conclusions. I've said one thing so far, a common one at that, and you've already gone and voted for me. There's nothing scummy about my post, heck I didn't even except anyone to lay a FOS on me because of it.

I don't have any certainty as to whether egruntz's stance on no-lynch was a true newb-tell, or a newb-scum tell, and some other things he's done seem fairly pro-town to me. I'm waiting to see more from him before I draw any conclusions in that regard.

Why is it, that just because I think differently than you, that I'm automatically either a newbie or scum?

Really

.

Why is it, that just because I think differently than you, that I'm automatically either a newbie or scum?

Really

.

Well, the charitable interpretation of pushing for no-lynch is that you are new to the site and thus don't see the disadvantage of giving the scum a free nightkill without any fear of being lynched. Additionally if we all agreed to a no-lynch on day one, no productive discussion could result from bandwagons, watching who was on the lynch, who pushed against it, etc. I think this has been explained to you by more capable and experienced players than me.

The uncharitable explanation is that scum would benefit from a no-lynch day one. They would not run the risk of being lynched, nor have to defend their actions at a later date regarding their behaviour on the day one lynch, they would not have to make arguments that later events would prove false... in general, they'd get a nightkill for free, and so it would be a beneficial move for scum if they could persuade town to a no-lynch. That's why pushing for a no-lynch is widely regarded as a scumtell except in very specific (and not currently applicable) circumstances.

So, that's why, egruntz.

... OR, it could just be a specific's playstyle. We aren't getting any information out of day one so far, besides "everyone bandwagon ____, he's scum for not being active!" and so and so.

As I mentioned before, it would be best to not lynch at all if we all can't come up with a final and positive conclusion that a certain person is mafia. And I don't really feel like repeating myself beyond that.

... OR, it could just be a specific's playstyle. We aren't getting any information out of day one so far, besides "everyone bandwagon ____, he's scum for not being active!" and so and so.

As I mentioned before, it would be best to not lynch at all if we all can't come up with a final and positive conclusion that a certain person is mafia. And I don't really feel like repeating myself beyond that.

Do you really feel that we aren't getting any information out of day one so far? Is it your experience that town can ever come up with a final and positive conclusion that a certain person is mafia before that person is dead?

No. I'm saying that Day 1 doesn't give you

enough

evidence that a certain person is Mafia. In all of the previous games I've played, the players ended up lynching one of their own on the first day, because they just

knew

that person was mafia.

In every game I suggest for a no lynch, I get flamed and pointed at; and I'm perfectly fine with that. I'll continue to "push" for no lynch, if we don't get hard evidence against someone.

For right

now

, voting for no lynch is a stupid idea, since we still have a while before the first day is forced to end. But if we all can't agree on a definite mafia by that time, we'd best be off by not lynching at all, instead of taking our chances when it's, what, 3/18 against us?

NOTHING SAID AT ALL ABOUT LIAM/TS

NOTHING SAID AT ALL ABOUT TDP/XYZZY

NOTHING SAID AT ALL ABOUT PATCH/VOL

NOTHING SAID AT ALL ABOUT SENS/RISHI


Book and Eg have a little/minor argument. Not sure what to make of it yet.

Egrutz gave me no help really besides like one possible connection...

more when i get time.

[pickemgenius]

Forgot to include my thoughts on Bookitty and The Fonz.

They seemed to have taken opposite sides on the "Egruntz" issue. Sometimes when two players take opposing veiws other players assume that one MUST be a mafia and one MUST be innocent. What is usally the case, however, is that both are innocent with differing ideas, or they turn out to both be mafia trying to polarize the townies. In my opinion, day one is too early to try this gambit, even for experienced players, as they would not yet had a chance to talk and work out a plan.

Seems really worried about post totals and who voted whom.

I'm not investigation proof to my knowledge, so that basically means there's a Mafia roleblocker, right? Is there any other real possibility?

I can think of one other possibility. Antithesis could have lied to save himself from a lynch, and now is tring to give some creditability to that lie. However, this would be a stupid move if he was mafia. The real cop would investigate him and discover his status. I don't know him, but I get the feeling that Antithesis is not stupid. Noone has counter-claimed cop so I belive Antithesis' claim and I belive the mafia have a roleblocker.

I'm not investigation proof to my knowledge, so that basically means there's a Mafia roleblocker, right? Is there any other real possibility?

I took a look in the wiki under roles and came up with another possibility. Anitithisis may have been protected by a paraniod doctor, AKA a jailkeeper. Paranoid doctors roleblock as well as protect. A paranoid doctor may or may not be aware of his dual ability. http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... Jailkeeper

If there truly are two scum groups, then looking at how people interacted with Xyl and Egruntz won't be all that helpful. It also seems really strange, considering their behaviour looked exactly like distancing to me.

It does look as if these two were distancing. However, now that we know that they are on two different scum teams (I don't see any other explanation for the names being different colors) then the logical conclusion is that Xyl was assuming that Egruntz was an innocent, one who looked like he was about to be lynched, and was trying to establish an FoI for himself.

I can't agree with Bookitty's statement that "looking at how people interacted with Xyl and Egruntz won't be all that helpful." Xly and Egruntz both have scumbuddies who knew their status. This is bound to affect the interactions between them.

I'm suspicious of Snaps and OGML for another reason, though; the three people who voted egruntz AFTER he admitted to being scum were Korlash, Snaps, and OGML. I do NOT think scum would bus their teammate, knowing there were two scumgroups. But once he admitted it? Why not take the townie points for being in on the lynch?

I don’t quite follow the logic here. OhGodMyLife and I are suspicious because we voted for Egruntz after he claimed scum? At the point that Egruntz claimed he was three votes away from getting lynched. After claiming scum, who here would not have voted for him? I think everyone in this game would have, regardless of alignment. Korlash, OGML, and myself just happened to be the next three players to log on after his claim.

Bookitty: On day one, it seems unlikely that scum would be willing to draw so much attention to their partners so early in the game. On the first day she went after Egruntz very strongly. If Bookitty is scum, I don’t think she is on the same team as Egruntz

Here are some of my thoughts on the players of this game:

Bookitty: On day one, it seems unlikely that scum would be willing to draw so much attention to their partners so early in the game. On the first day she went after Egruntz very strongly. If Bookitty is scum, I don’t think she is on the same team as Egruntz

Liamcool: Posts enough to keep off my lurker lists, but what has he said?

Phate: Posts little, mostly one-liners that encourage discussion. I don’t recall seeing him express suspicion on anyone except whomever he votes for.

Antithesis: Claimed cop on day one. I feel this is usually a poor strategy, but in this case it may have prevented his lynching. If he were lying then no doubt the real cop would have investigated him on night one. Because no one has counter-claimed, I believe either he told the truth and is the cop, or he lied and was found innocent by the real cop. The possibility that he is a godfather is still open.

Hasdgfas: He seems careful to be non-confrontational and to appear helpful. I don’t know if this means he is careful scum or careful townie.

Xyzzy: Lurker, but has started contributing more.

Panzerjager: Seems to have a lot of knowledge of the games setup. He suggested, on day one before there was any evidence to support him, that there were two scum groups.(See post 369)

There are probably more then 3 scum cause it's 18 player game.. My guess is either one group of 4 or 2 groups of 3. I try to avoid doctor speculation.

How could anyone other than scum know that on the first day?
On day two, he presented a rather detailed nightkill analysis. (See post 455)

Okay before I adovacate the lynch of egruntz with a case I want to indulge in some kill speculation. I think that a vig/sk killed CKD and that there are 2 mafia groups, Xyl's thinking that Fonz was a threat and the other group thinking Xyl was a threat

Was he able to be so detailed because he was in on one of the killings?
He also seems to know how many are in each scum group but is unwilling to tell us how he knows. (See post 584)

As to my musings of the setup, I have been saying that there are 2 groups of 3 all game. I cannot say much more right now with out giving to much of my thought process then I'm willing right now. I can promise that it will make sense in time, as most things do.

Also interesting is his about-face on Egruntz. On day one, he expressed iritation with Egruntz’s idea of no lynch, but didn’t vote for him or give an FoS. He even went as far as to say he thought he was innocent. (See post 243)

I think egruntz is town. I really do.

His day one posts seem like he is trying to tell Egruntz to drop the no lynch argument and distance himself also. (See posts 24, 48, and 150) On day two, after scum have had a chance to talk, he is suddenly one of the most vocal pushing for Egruntz’s lynch. This smells of bussing to me.

Volkan: I like his analyisis of each player. He seems open-minded and intellegent. If he is scum, he is a very dangerous one. The only thing I find suspicious about him is the zero interaction both he and his predecessor had with Xylthixlm.

Rishi: Replaced in late in day one. Pointed out that Xylthixlm and Egruntz names are different colors. As I stated earlier, I don’t see this as a scum or innocent tell as both are likely to point out the difference. However, this seems to be his only contribution to the game.

Skruffs: Like Volkan, neither he or his predecessor have any interaction with Xylthixlm. Were the three of them purposely avoiding each other so as not to reveal one another if they got caught?

OhGodMyLife: I see some distancing with Xylthixlm from him. Day one he voted for Xylthixlm. (See post 182) In his very next post, he removed his vote. (See post 304)

OK, Xyl, you've more than reassured me, so thank you for addressing that. The biggest reason for my vote was because I think the DS bandwagon and constant talk of egruntz' no-lynch theory were consuming too much of the town's attention and I wanted to get people to look elsewhere.

On day two, he tried to get some brownie points for “going after Xylthixlm” (See post 454)

I find it ironic that the townie(fonz) who came after me when I went after the mafia goon(xyl) also ended up dead. Along with the other person I was suspicious of(CKD). I'm gonna have to go have another look at day one, but right now what people are saying about egruntz is making sense, and his own posts are not doing anything to help his case.

In short, I think Panzerjager was scum partners with Egruntz and OGML was scum partners with Xylthixlm.

In order of most suspicious to least:
Panzerjager
OhGodMyLife
Liamcool
Xyzzy
Rishi
Phate
Hasdgfas
Volkan
Skruffs
Bookitty
Antithesis

Unvote : Xyzzy
Vote : Panzerjager

I have a few questions I'd like answered.

Bookitty

: Why do you think voting for Erguntz after he claimed is a scum tell? Don't you think an innocent might also have voted that way? Of all those who voted after his claim, why do you find me the most suspicious?

Hasdgfas, Liamcool, Phate, Rishi

: Who do you find suspicions? After nearly three months and over 600 posts, you must have some suspicions.

Panzerjager

: What caused you to speculate on day one that we have two scum groups? Why do you feel that there are three in each group?

Skruffs

: If you suspect Rishi for pointing out the color difference in Xly and Erguntz names, why aren't you likewise suspicious of Panzerjager for having similar "in game" knowledge?

Volkan

: While your analysis and arguments are very good, I haven't seen where you state who you think is scum and/or town. Who do you suspect?

Snaps, what do you think of Rishi?

I really am unsure what to think about Rishi. He replaced in, lurked at first, pointed out the difference in name color of our two found scum, has suddenly became much more vocal, and has only voted once out of the three days. Maybe my attacks on the lurkers has motivated him to contribute more? Maybe not, whatever the case, he is contributing now. If he is scum he’ll slip-up and we’ll have him. We need keep everyone active and talking. The only way we will find the remaining scum is to get them to say something that gives them away. This is why lurking hurts the game. If we allow lurking, then scum just need to post occasional comments and skate along unnoticed while we hang each other.

As for the “link” between Rishi and myself, what do you see? If you are referring to post 631 where OGML said Rishi was the only lurker I hadn’t gone after, the reason for that is that I was busy going after more blatant lurkers.

If I don’t have any strong suspicions, I go after lurkers. I target the most conspicuous ones hoping to shake up any scum lurkers as well as to remove the dead wood.

I am sure Panz is scum on Egruntz team. I will be leaving my vote for him.

****PROPOSAL****
All players submit a scumdar giving at least 2 sentences per person. I will post mine first if the majority so wills it. Otherwise, I suggest random sequencing.

I feel this is a good idea. Lists would help the town more than scum. I’ll start the ball rolling with my own:

Panzerjager - I have made my case against him a number of times in the past two days. I am pretty sure his is scum. Apart from what I mentioned in previous posts, he has seemed very anxious to lynch quickly. Several times he has mentioned suspicions of Bookitty, but I can’t find where he elaborated or gave reasons for his suspicion of her.

Xyzzy - I find Xyzzy interesting in that he was after Panzerjager for reasons similar to mine.

Cause the norm is 2 groups of 3..every game i've been in with 2 greoups has been 2 groups of 3.

Assuming that this game is remotely similar to anything else is really quite scummy - we have no reason to assume that anything about this game is "traditional". Knowledge about the setup is a really bad thing to guess at, and any good player should know that - but remember, the scum have MUCH more information about the setup, so for scum to suggest something like this usually seems quite rational.

FoS: Panzer

Yet Xyzzy has been careful not to vote for Panzerjager when he was in any real danger of being lynched, instead he has apparently dropped his suspicions and he has switched his attack to me for lurker hunting and being unhelpful.

Rishi - He has played pretty quietly the whole game. The only thing that seems to have stirred him up was Skruffs accusation and vote based on him pointing out the difference in color of caught scum. Skruffs argument was weak, but he was killed that night. Did Rishi get nervous and NK Skruffs or Rishi is being set up?

Liamcool - Lurker of ridiculous proportions. I encourage you to do an isolated read of him. He has contributed NOTHING. His only vote was back in day one. I’m glad he was replaced.

Phate - His posts are all about game play, there is no scumhunting in them. The only exception is the following where he parrots Bookitty:

I'm liking a Snaps lynch. He jumps onto the egruntz-wagon after egruntz claims, and he's spending most of his time poking lurkers and more-or-less ignoring the conversations going on around him.

Bookitty - Not easy to sum up in just a few sentences. I get a pretty strong town vibes off of Bookitty. She has been very active, contributed to the conversations, etc. She has taken close looks at a number of players, and doesn’t seem to be trying to lead the town or start bandwagons. The only niggle of suspicion I have for her is a result of Panzerjager not elaborating on his suspicion of her. Is he distancing? Looking to start a bandwagon?

Vollkan - I enjoy his analytic thinking, however he seems to be reluctant to state who he suspects. On the other hand, he has not shied away from answering questions that are put to him. I find nothing scummy about him, and that makes me a little nervous.

Antithesis - He claims to be the cop. I believe him. If he was lying and scum, I’m pretty sure the real cop would have counter-claimed by now. If he was lying and innocent then it’s to the real cop’s interest to not counter-claim.

Another player I have noticed lurking is Liamcool. He hasn't posted much of either quantity or quality.
Vote : Liamcool

Hey. I'll be low activity until next Monday and then no activity until Wednesday. Sorry for the inconvienience.

Bah! I missed this post somehow. Looks like RL has Liamcool too.
I'm going to let my vote stand for the time being. Liamcool has been a low poster and added little content for the whole game.

Currently my biggest FoSs are Xyzzy then Liamcool. Phate is now on my radar, too.

On day three I voted for Xyzzy and Liamcool because they were lurking and I wanted to pressure them into contributing. Xyzzy has since, but Liamcool has yet to. I changed my vote to Panzerjager because his sudden change from day one “I think Egruntz is town” to day two “I like lynching newbie scum. (Egruntz)” looks like bussing to me.

Lots of lurker hunting for no apparent reason...

Gets on xyzzy for similiar reasons as liam...but adds that he doesnt like xyzzy "following him"

Still waiting for Panz to respond to my question in post 509. Unexplained votes make me suspicious. FoS Panzerjager

Still waiting for Xyzzy to repond to my post/vote 498. How is his lurking helping?

As it seems I am the flavor of the day, I may as well post my suspicions:
Definate scum: Panzerjager
Possible scum : Rishi, Xyzzy
Lurks so much I can't tell one way or the other: Phate, Liamcool
Possible innocent : Bookitty, Vollkan
Definate innocent: Antithesis

no real arguments with vollkan.

Again, two scum on Eteocles/DS. Again I doubt there is a third scum there.

That there are not more then two scum on each bandwagon is a very bold assumption. TS has based her entire argument off that assumption. While I agree with her conclusion, I think her method is potentially dangerous.

TS, why do you think that we would have no more than two scum on that first wagon?

I'm going to chime in on the Skruffs/Rishi discussion. It is compleatly possible that Skuffs is correct, and Rishi is scum tring to gain some FoI by pointing out some usefull information. However, wouldn't an innocent townie do the same? I don't think saying "Hey, look at what I just found!" could be pigeon-holed in to scum or non-scum tell. To me it just says Rishi is either scum trying to look helpful or town trying to be helpful. Until we get more information we won't be able to tell whitch it is.

Of the other players who have votes against them, Rishi, OhGodMyLife, and Phate, none of them seem particularly scummy to me. Perhaps those who have cast votes could elaborate on their arguments

Snaps, what do you think of Rishi?

I really am unsure what to think about Rishi. He replaced in, lurked at first, pointed out the difference in name color of our two found scum, has suddenly became much more vocal, and has only voted once out of the three days. Maybe my attacks on the lurkers has motivated him to contribute more? Maybe not, whatever the case, he is contributing now. If he is scum he’ll slip-up and we’ll have him. We need keep everyone active and talking. The only way we will find the remaining scum is to get them to say something that gives them away. This is why lurking hurts the game. If we allow lurking, then scum just need to post occasional comments and skate along unnoticed while we hang each other.

As for the “link” between Rishi and myself, what do you see? If you are referring to post 631 where OGML said Rishi was the only lurker I hadn’t gone after, the reason for that is that I was busy going after more blatant lurkers.

If I don’t have any strong suspicions, I go after lurkers. I target the most conspicuous ones hoping to shake up any scum lurkers as well as to remove the dead wood.

I am sure Panz is scum on Egruntz team. I will be leaving my vote for him.

Overall i get a very possible connection with either xyzzy,TS,RIshi, and not so much from the others.

[Rishi]

I think PEG killed this game.

[Toaster Strudel]

I think PEG killed this game.

No kidding, now let's kill xyzzy. Or whoever we were lynching... I totally forget where we were at in this game.

[Rishi]

I think PEG killed this game.

No kidding, now let's kill xyzzy. Or whoever we were lynching... I totally forget where we were at in this game.

Why is xyzzy a better lynch than you?

[Toaster Strudel]

Why is xyzzy a better lynch than you?

I keep mixing up those repeats of the last three letters of the alphabet.

But I did some hard work, but it looks like PEG distracted us from a Panzer wagon.

[xyzzy]

Beginning to think TS might be scum, because of the "OMG PEG is scum because he distracted us from lynching Panzer with useful info!" thing. I'm 100% in favor of a Panzer lynch, but I'm okay with data.

[xyzzy]

EBWOP:

I'm thinking we have only 1-2 scum left based on the NKing. 2:2:14 with some power roles, or 2:3:13, while not exactly an easy win for scum, is certainly doable with the scum roles we've seen up until now - heck, small scum teams are often easier to win with, and 3:3:12 and further becomes very difficult for town very quickly. If we have a roleblocker or something, Xyl/snaps/someone else is slightly plausible, but it's very swingy.

[Toaster Strudel]

Beginning to think TS might be scum, because of the "OMG PEG is scum because he distracted us from lynching Panzer with useful info!" thing. I'm 100% in favor of a Panzer lynch, but I'm okay with data.

Where did I say that?

[vollkan]

Beginning to think TS might be scum, because of the "OMG PEG is scum because he distracted us from lynching Panzer with useful info!" thing. I'm 100% in favor of a Panzer lynch, but I'm okay with data.

And could you please quote and explain the post where she makes the "OMG PEG...<snip>"?

[Toaster Strudel]

Beginning to think TS might be scum, because of the "OMG PEG is scum because he distracted us from lynching Panzer with useful info!" thing. I'm 100% in favor of a Panzer lynch, but I'm okay with data.

And could you please quote and explain the post where she makes the "OMG PEG...<snip>"?

We might consider continuing to play the game while he's busy looking for things that didn't happen.

Did you analyze zz, voll?

[Elias_the_thief]

Bump. Mass prod sent out. Get a move on people.

[Rishi]

I got my prod. Hi.

I want to hear more from Panz, especially. I don't like the way that he started the game on Day 5.

[PJ.]

Unvote, Vote TS

Why are you voting me..I'm townie..anyone wanting to lynch me is stupid and TS is obvious scum.

[Toaster Strudel]

Unvote, Vote TS

Why are you voting me..I'm townie..anyone wanting to lynch me is stupid and TS is obvious scum.

Thank you for not considering the possibility that I might be stupid!

[vollkan]

Did you analyze zz, voll?

He is included in my previous scumdar analysis with a 50, but I had actual observations on him. Did I say somewhere else that I was going to analyse him?

Unvote, Vote TS Why are you voting me..I'm townie..anyone wanting to lynch me is stupid and TS is obvious scum.

"TS is obvious scum" because?

[Rishi]

I'm just wondering if Panz has given up on this game (either lost interest or feels he has no shot of winning), but I know he knows better than to say things like that without explanation.

Normally, I would vote Panz here until he started making sense but I'm not sure what the count is.

Elias - could we get a vote count when you get a chance?

[Elias_the_thief]

The Day Five Votecount:

Panzerjager - 2

(Xyzzy, Toaster Strudel)

Toaster Strudel - 1

(panzerjager)

Xyzzy - 0

Rishi - 0

Bookitty - 0

Vollkan - 0

pickemgenius - 0

Nobody - 3

(bookitty, Rishi, Vollkan)

With seven alive it will take four to lynch. Deadline for today is

Tuesday, May 13th, at 10 PM EST.

[xyzzy]

But I did some hard work, but it looks like PEG distracted us from a Panzer wagon.

Obviously I paraphrased, but this sure sounds like you're saying PEG caused us to get off focus of a lynch.

[Rishi]

With six alive it will take four to lynch. Deadline for today is

Tuesday, May 13th, at 10 PM EST.

Seven alive. You forgot PEG.

Still four to lynch. So I'm not going to place Panz at L -1. I still would like some straight answers from him, though.

[pickemgenius]

But I did some hard work, but it looks like PEG distracted us from a Panzer wagon.

Obviously I paraphrased, but this sure sounds like you're saying PEG caused us to get off focus of a lynch.

I was gonna say, when the hell did I say that.


And I don't think I took focus off of anything as there really wasn't a helluva lot going on at that juncture.

Also i've got mixed feelings about the people on the panzer wagon...

[Bookitty]

The safest thing to assume is that we have two scumgroups of three each. Assuming something else tends toward a false (and possibly dangerous) sense of security.

It is possible that Panzer claimed two-shot vig as a scum gambit. I don't think so, and I'm not willing to vote him, despite his weird fixation on me. But I would like some explanations:

1) Panzer, why is Toaster Strudel obvscum? I know why I think she might be scum, but I'm curious as to your reasoning here.

2) PEG, why do you regard my argument with Egruntz as minor, when ultimately it ended with him being lynched due to my mistaken belief that he was linked to Xylthixlm? Or are you referring to my original vote on him Day 1?

3) To anyone: What's the precise case against Panzerjager? Is there something I missed?

[Rishi]

3) To anyone: What's the precise case against Panzerjager? Is there something I missed?

You were suspicious of Panz earlier.

But there really isn't a case against Panz. He's just acting so evasively right now and now giving his reasoning for anything. I'm not going to put a third vote on him, but the purpose of my vote would be to pressure him into giving a straight answer.

Basically, right now, Panz is displaying anti-town behavior (not necessarily pro-scum behavior) and I want to know why.

[Bookitty]

Before his claim, I was suspicious (and probably somewhat OMGUSsy, due to his repeated jumping on me without any basis for it). Since then, I've been pretty convinced he's town suffering from confirmation bias.