Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[Cipher]

I might as well tell you at this point: my innocent result was on Rigel.

Obviously, this does not help dahill's cause.

[LaptopGun]

Just my memory here, but was there not a big discussion about Wesag before day 1 ended? And then no one picked it up on day 2?

[dahill1]

I might as well tell you at this point: my innocent result was on Rigel.

Obviously, this does not help dahill's cause.

unvote

i don't see how that relates to my cause though..

[Shteven]

It's another person you've suspected that ended up probably town (or SK). But really, we need to be a bit more fair to dahill; there were plenty of other people voting for rigel. It's a very useful innocent result, because it will resolve a lot of the arguments we had on day 3, but here's rigel's wagon at deadline:

Rigel - 5 (LoudmouthLee, Oman, dahill1, vollkan, MadCrawdad)

They can't all be scum; even if 100% of the anti-town roles were on there, 2 townies were as well. Likely 3 or 4 were town.

FOS: LML, Oman

I have had my reservations about both LML and Oman, and while I don't have much solid to go on, I can dig up some of their posts that have struck me the wrong way when I have the time. I may do it later tonight, or another day. We need to discuss more than just dahill today.

For a temporary explanation, I don't like Oman's handling of the spacecase wagon. LML came out very forcefully on day 3, accusing two players. One of which, Rigel, is now a non-mafia role. LML and Oman have been lurking on day 4, neither have posted yet.

[-TinVision-]

First Vote Count of the Day

dahill1 (1)

- iamausername

Not voting (9)

- Cipher, dahill1, LaptopGun, LoudmouthLee, Oman, Rigel, Shteven, The Fonz, vollkan

I am seeking replacement for LoudmouthLee and Rigel, who didn't pick up their prods.

[The Fonz]

My listt of lynchables today is down to 4-5 people. I'm not really buying Dahill as scum with Spacecase, but i really need a re-read to do justice to things. Coming.

[dahill1]

It's another person you've suspected that ended up probably town (or SK). But really, we need to be a bit more fair to dahill; there were plenty of other people voting for rigel. It's a very useful innocent result, because it will resolve a lot of the arguments we had on day 3, but here's rigel's wagon at deadline:

Rigel - 5 (LoudmouthLee, Oman, dahill1, vollkan, MadCrawdad)

They can't all be scum; even if 100% of the anti-town roles were on there, 2 townies were as well. Likely 3 or 4 were town.

FOS: LML, Oman

I have had my reservations about both LML and Oman, and while I don't have much solid to go on, I can dig up some of their posts that have struck me the wrong way when I have the time. I may do it later tonight, or another day. We need to discuss more than just dahill today.

For a temporary explanation, I don't like Oman's handling of the spacecase wagon. LML came out very forcefully on day 3, accusing two players. One of which, Rigel, is now a non-mafia role. LML and Oman have been lurking on day 4, neither have posted yet.

i actually agree with you that there probably was at least one scum on the wagon, which makes me also suspect of LML and Oman (i am discounting myself, because i know i am town). i'll reread them

[Cipher]

Yeah, the big deadline wagon on Rigel was the main reason that I chose to investigate him. Another good thing is that it's unlikely that Rigel is MCD's mason buddy (given MCD's vote for him at deadline yesterday), so we've potentially got another confirmable townie still out there.

dahill: The statement about "not helping your cause" was pretty much just me fishing to see if anyone would take the result and use it as a case against you. Looks like that's not going to happen.

Time to do some re-reading, methinks.

[Cipher]

A couple of thoughts on the current game state:

- With 10 players alive, if we mislynch today then we'll be in semi-LyLo tomorrow unless the SK kills mafia tonight. We need to kill at least one of the two remaining mafia no later than Night 5 to keep things going. If they're not already doing so, I'd suggest that the SK shoot for mafia tonight, as this is in both their interests and the interests of the town.

- We've currently got two confirmed non-mafiates (LaptopGun and Rigel), one unrevealed mason, and, in my opinion, one probable prior investigation target (vollkan). If you also eliminate me from lynch contention then there are only five good lynch targets left, which gives us a 100% chance of killing at least one of the mafia over the next two days if the SK is also killing people in that pool. Even if you include vollkan in the list there's a damn good chance of hitting mafia soon, and the other one wouldn't be far behind once the choices have been narrowed down. As such, I think it's probably in the mafia's best interests to be shooting for the SK over the next couple of nights to maximise their own chances of survival.

- I think that MCD's mason buddy should probably claim now. The scum don't really have kills to waste on townies right now, and I think that it would swing the numbers in our favour to have one more confirmed townie.

[Shteven]

Good explanation of the situation Cipher; I thought I could make it a bit clearer with a list:

Cipher - claimed cop
LaptopGun - investigated town/SK
Rigel - investigated town/SK
vollkan - Possibly investigated but unknown

Pool of unknowns:
The Fonz
LoudmouthLee
Oman
Shteven
dahill1
iamausername

Possible mason claim still outstanding. The list will get quite a bit shorter tommorow if the killing factions agree with your plan as well. In the event of death, some things on the pool:

Fonz has been helpful but not very extreme most of the game. Hasn't done much to draw attention to himself or made any gambits - possible SK behavior.

LML doesn't believe cipher, or at least had significant doubts about jesse gun's claiming on the six aces wagon. Could have been trying to discredit the cop, but may have been legit.

Oman's been somewhat lurkerish all game imho. Not too fond of how he wanted to drop off the spacecase wagon out of boredom.

Shteven is consistently awesome and you should all vote for him - for town mayor. Do not lynch.

Dahill1 has been on the wrong side of each lynch, but being incorrect doesn't prove that he's scum. Also, a lot of that was his replacements, he's not personally on the wrong side of each lynch. And especially in the case of Rigel, he had company.

iamausername hasn't done much remarkable that I can think of off the top of my head. He did start the dahill1 wagon today, but other than that, I'm honestly drawing a blank. I know I had some interactions with farside22 earlier...I'll have to go back sometime.

[LaptopGun]

cipher's plan is not bad but that of course requires one or both of the killing factions. I'd be hesitant to give both of them another confirmed townie just because they may not follow it. I am seeing a real trend to get the mason to claim and I'm not sure how to read it.

[Shteven]

A townie is perhaps the lowest value role in the game. Don't get me wrong, I love playing townies, but losing them just doesn't hurt that much. They're expendable.

The benefit that the SK provides the mafia and vice versa is they can remove players from the game more quickly when they are both alive. So early on, they benefit each other. At some point, as the number of town players diminishes, the risk of cross kills increase and the need to have a second faction to help kill town decreases. Combined, it can turn the two killing factions from allies to enemies rather quickly. And it's similar to a prisoner dilemma situation - whoever betrays first benefits. Kill too soon, and you'll have a hard time surviving the remaining lynches from the town. Kill too late, and they'll kill you first. Is night 4 the best night to cross kill? Maybe. I'm no expert on the topic, but 4 or 5 sounds pretty good to me. You won't have much longer. Of course, all of this depends on you actually being able to tell who the opposing faction actually is. The SK gets some help from the town in hunting down scummy players, the mafia have a bit of a harder time, but they only have to be right once.

Basically the point is that revealing who a townie is isn't likely to make them think killing that townie is a good idea. If they just wanted to hit a townie, they could pick randomly and shoot whoever they wanted to, because they can't hit anything of lower value than a townie. They're trying to aim higher. Even if they aren't going for the opposing faction, we have a claimed cop at the very least. I don't think the mason would be much more appealing than a townie. The claim may fend off lynches a bit better, but you have no extra power.

[Cipher]

The other thing is that both the SK and the mafia want their respective opposing scum faction wiped out in the next two days. I mentioned above that the SK will lose if both mafia are still alive after Night 5, but it should also be noted that if we get to Day 6 with one mafia and the SK still alive then it creates a four player prisoner's dilemma situation that is weighted heavily in the town's favour. As such, both factions really want to be trying to kill each other off in the next 2 days.

[vollkan]

I don't think it makes sense for me to wait any longer, now that I seem to have been confirmed by assumption anyway. I am the remaining mason.

The reason I am claiming now is because MCD left me with a wealth of information, that I think we should use.

I can't quote the PMs from him, according to the rules, but the most important thing is that his main suspect on N3 was Fonz.

Reasons were as follows:
1) Wishy-washy stance on the Kab wagon
2) Posts 397, 415, 499 (where he agrees that MCD could be SC"s buddy), 522, 582, and 591 where Fonz defends SC.
3) By 593, Fonz seems to be shifting his position and in 604 he calls SC 'likely scum'
5) In 614 he threatens SC with a vote, despite making no case

[Cipher]

Just to be sure: Any counterclaims? Kind of sucks that it was you, as I'd more or less eliminated you from contention already.

Interesting point that you make about The Fonz. After I did my analysis of the remaining players, I realised that we only had, at most, 6 players that we should even consider lynching today. This led me to think about this post:

My listt of lynchables today is down to 4-5 people. I'm not really buying Dahill as scum with Spacecase, but i really need a re-read to do justice to things. Coming.

He says he's cut his list down to 4-5 as though he's eliminated some people through a process of deduction, but it actually just means that he's eliminated the confirmed innocents/non-mafia, along with himself. If he was eliminating people on that basis then I'd expect him to have mentioned it more specifically. I was definitely left with the impression that he's coasting and allowing others to set up wagons for him to jump onto. He's made it onto my re-read list.

[Shteven]

Checked over roughly half of the fonz posts listed by volkan and found most of them suspect. The only one of the ones I saw that I didn't have a problem with was 614 - he was saying that spacecase hadn't answered long standing questions, and that was why he would vote. He didn't repeat those questions, which were largely still over the flipping on kab's wagon. He had answered them, just not to most people's satisfaction, and Fonz was looking for a more detailed explanation.

The others I read seem genuinely incriminating.

Some posts to reference for my suspicions on Oman:
The main part of Oman's questionable tactics on spacecase are in post 603, my response in 622, and his follow up in 623.

Would be nice to get answers from Oman but it seems we may end up getting answers from Oman's replacement, sadly.

[-TinVision-]

Armlx replaces LoudmouthLee.

[armlx]

Hi, rereading tonight.

[armlx]

Ok, maybe not tonight. Depends on how long it takes to reread the other game I just replaced into.

[Oman]

Damn I keep forgetting about this.

Are there any specific questions that require answering? By me of course.

[LaptopGun]

The site has eaten 2 of my posts, so I'm trying to retype these from memory. I am annoyed to say the least. Sorry if it's terse. (origignally 893 then I tried retyping it for 95. Once it posted like normal. Last one was just lost server connect).

1. My meta read on Fonz is inconclusive. He's acted the same he he's acted when he was town and mafia. It depends on the situation whether he's been looking scummy or not.
2. This popped into my head. Someone had a beef with Volkan way back in time. I can't find it. Poster claimed his behavior is very insideous and he's good looking town when he's mafia. This is perhaps early rumblings that someone though he was not pro town or one of the antitown roles trying to stirr things up.

[armlx]

K, not rereading tonight, prob not tomorrow either, def this weekend tho.

[iamausername]

Mod

: I believe Shteven also has a vote on dahill right now.

I've recently completed a reread of the game and I definitely have a much better handle on the players now, so here's how my thoughts stand on the possible scumbags. Thanks, Shteven, for the handy list.

Cipher - claimed cop
LaptopGun - investigated town/SK
Rigel - investigated town/SK
vollkan - Possibly investigated but unknown,

claimed mason

Pool of unknowns:
The Fonz

LoudmouthLee

armlx

Oman
Shteven
dahill1
iamausername

That leaves two scum in five possible candidates (eliminating myself, obviously). I'm liking those odds.

In order of scumminess:

---

1. Oman

- Surprised to realise on reread just how much active lurking he's done as the game's gone on. A lot of posts like #515, #562, #751, stating facts about the events and setup of the game, which creates the illusion of posting content, without actually providing anything substantial.

He also hopped on the kabenon wagon D2 without ever making a case, at all. It was just "Justin convinced me", and that's it, from that point on, "Kabenon is scum".

Then there's Post #376, where he proposes the brilliant plan of lynching anyone our dead cop Justin might have been mildly suspicious of, because obviously this means he had a guilty result on them. This is especially scummy looking now that I know that all the players that would be lynched under this scheme are pro-town. Obviously, the rest of you don't have this assurance, since I'm one of them, but I think Oman's plan is pretty inherently scummy regardless of the players involved.

As far as the Spacecase wagon goes (in addition to the points Shteven mentioned), I think Post #444 is pretty significant, given that it comes just a few posts after Oman put a vote on Spacecase. Why do that if you're "not sold on spacecase lynch"? Seems like he's trying to have it both ways; looking townie by being part of the wagon if Spacecase gets lynched, but also giving himself an out if he decides to drop all suspicion on Spacecase if a better wagon crops up by saying he was never really sure of the case in the first place. I'm surprised no one picked up on this post at the time, actually.

So, yeah.

Unvote, Vote: Oman

.

---

2. dahill

- I've already covered my reasoning on this. He's dropped a place in the rankings, but I still think the case against him is pretty strong, just not quite as strong as the one on Oman.

---

3. armlx

- Four different players to look at here, although armlx hasn't done anything yet, and Perfectiondoesnotexist didn't do anything either. Somestrangeflea did quite a few things, but none of them are particularly noteworthy. He was on the kabwagon D2, but his reasoning seems fairly solid for that stage of the game. So I'm going to concentrate on LML.

On replacing in, he posted while reading through, he had skepticism of Jesse/Cipher's cop claim, which I don't think was completely unreasonable at that stage, and votes farside/me for... random voting Six Aces at the start of the game, and being one of Justin's suspects D2. And this post, which actually constitutes a reasonable argument, although I don't think it indicates scumminess on my/farside's part unless Cipher is my scumpartner.

And that's the only things he saw fit to comment on; no discussion of the major wagon of the day, which just so happens to have been on a scum player. In fact, I don't think he even acknowledged the existence of the Spacecase wagon in any of his posts, which seems extremely suspicious.

He then gets the Rigel wagon started, citing a link between Rigel and farside/myself which is now proven to not exist unless Cipher is a lying SK/townie who happened to get lucky on Six Aces. Not likely.

A lot of this is a pretty poor, OMGUSy case, I know. This is because I think Oman or dahill are by far the scummiest of the five. But his total lack of discussion of Spacecase is definitely worth looking into.

---

4. The Fonz

- One thing I'll say against him is that he's been pretty passive through this game. Fun fact: Fonzie has made exactly four votes in this game so far. One was a D1 random vote, which doesn't really count, and the rest were one vote each day for that day's eventual lynch.

As far as his defense of Spacecase goes, I don't see it as particularly scummy. He started out saying Space's sudden 180 on kab wasn't that scummy, since he didn't stand to gain anything from it as scum, because kab was clearly going to be lynched either way. Perfectly true. Later, when the case on Spacecase became more about his response to the original votes than his hammer on kab, Fonz joined the wagon. Could be scum trying to derail the wagon on his buddy, then bussing when it became obvious this wasn't going to happen, but it reads more to me as townie becoming more convinced by the case as the evidence built up.

I think his passive, cautious play, going along with general public opinion on the lynches and not drawing attention to himself by going after someone who was a less popular candidate makes him much more likely as SK than mafia.

---

5. Shteven

- I don't have anything on him besides the "How can people read Rigel's last post and not be voting Spacecase?" post that earned so much suspicion yesterday. For lack of any other evidence against him, I'm inclined to believe his defense that it was just a poor choice of words.

[armlx]

1/3rd through reread, already I can see Oman needs to die. Hell, I could tell that before D1 was over even. I'll vote once I'm done. Also not liking farside too much at this point, but I have a natural tendency to not like what she posts I think. Too tired to put a full case up right now, but I'll try to have it this weekend.

Fonz's logic on the Oman wagon confuses me, but is still logic of some sort. Also like his action D3 to find out how the game was set up. Leaning pro-town here.

Shteven seems good enough to me. Leaning Pro-town

dahill (well, those he replaced) are sorta null to me. Wouldn't say he is town, but lynch username and Oman first by far. Things like FOSing then double posting to Vote Space are throwing me off.

Something I found mildly awkward (in a this is bad play way) is that Cipher's investigations were all on people I felt were obviously pro-town, except Laptop. Please redirect your efforts towards those who are most scummy instead.

I'll have to reread again to see who are most likely mafiates vs. SK, mainly looking vote counts, but my first instinct is Oman + Farside scum with Laptop/dahill SK.

[armlx]

Last post was sorta stream of thought through out a reread, didn't mean to post till I was done rereading.

This post is unreal scummy.

Wagon slowing.

Makes me wonder.

I might unvote.

AKA "Hmm, maybe I don't have to bus him after all".

Same with Farside swapping off.

After LTG's pre-emptive claim I'm leaning dahill SK.

K, finished, def Omanscum.

Vote Oman

.