Mini 578 - Mistery at Montescuro - Game Over!

[Macavenger]

So I've spent the last couple hours rereading various bits of this game focusing on different theories, and I still feel like I'm shooting in the dark a bit about who is scum. Best candidates for me at the moment in no particular order would be Dasquian, DBE, PyroDwarf, and MBF.

I unvoted MBF because, upon coming back after nothaving time for mafia for a couple days, I found MBF's posting while I was gone noticably more townlike. This kinda reinforced a few doubts I was starting to have before leaving.

I'm pretty unsure about MBF right now. Yosarian's case against him still makes sense to me, and I don't like how he reacted to the pressure initially when that went on. On the other hand, his recent posting seems like genuine scumhunting, and he seems pretty helpful and reasonable overall (recently). I also tend to agree that I don't see any particularly obvious connections between MBF and other players. I can't really tell if his recent mild defenses of me are scum trying to buddy with me or legitimate townie defense of someone they disagree with a case on. I tend to lean toward the latter. I still see a significant possibility of MBF being scum, but I don't think I really want to lynch him right now.

Albert's case on Dasquian/DBE mostly makes sense to me. DBE I thought was somewhat scummy yesterday, but didn't want to lynch due to newbie and claim considerations. I think what I've seen with her has pretty much evaporated my newbie concerns. I still don't want to lynch her right now due to claim considerations, but I think Albert's case here is very worth looking into if Dasquian comes up scum.

Rereading Dasquian in isolation gives me a lot less of the good vibes I was getting yesterday. His posting looks a lot more vacant to me now; pressuring lurkers and commenting on anyone else pretty much as little as possible. Definitely hasn't done any hard scumhunting.

PyroDwarf looks pretty scummy to me right now. Hasn't contributed much to the game. The recent blatant fishing is bad. I also don't like the way he claims to be not voting for MBF because of OMGUS considerations. Considering that he claims to have reasons for suspecting him, this strikes me as very fishy. Going back to Day 1, leaving his vote on Guardian all day is really odd, when he knew for most of the day that Guardian wouldn't be lynched, and appeared to support the likely Near lynch. Could easily be trying not to be traced to a townie lynch, there. Also, as a possible tie-in to ABR's theory, he's very quick to jump on the blame Guardian parade at the beginning of the day today.

A couple questions for ABR:

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS) instead of Mr Scummy Near who has lurked all day and is not posting through L-2 and L-1 now? I say "not posting" rather than lurking now since it's the weekend and anyone gets a break for that in my book.

He references the aforementioned book. All joking aside, he is showing subtle signs of knowledge beyond the constrains of what town should know.

His quick turnaround on Near is acceptable as a standalone action, but I will return to my "appropriate emotional response" argument, and go so far as to say that he is completely incongruent with this (smart) move.

Please elaborate on this part of your case, I'm not fully understanding it. Specifically, what are you seeing in that quote by Dasquian that shows knowledge of players' alignment?

More generally, could you explain why you think Yosarian is the third member of the scumgroup, specifically as opposed to MBF or PyroDwarf? PyroDwarf in particular seems to fit into your theory better than Yosarian, and be very scummy independent of it, whereas I still don't see much of a case on Yos.

I will most likely be voting for PyroDwarf or Dasquian today. Currently I'm probably leaning a bit toward Pyro. I'd like to hear some more explanation from ABR at least before deciding, though.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

I'm 92% sure he has this game read correctly, both in that his observations make sense, and that I've done some metagaming on him and he's on an incredible hot streak recently.

Once again your intuitions are off. You were 99.9% sure I was not the Watcher, which I am, and now you're 92% sure that like Albie Claims me and Dasq are a scum team?? (solely because he is having a ht streak in other games??)

You scumdar has a major glitch there. I am pretty sure Albie is town (misguided as he is) as I was pretty sold on Near's vanilla claim.

• A) Yes I am New, its a fact
  B) I had no Idea who to Watch last night so I randomly picked someone who I found a bit scummy the night before because of Mac's comment about Not Willing to Lynch Dasq at all.
  C) I got a moot result.
  D) Why anyone would think I was alligned with The duck is beyond me, and If I am doing things to make you think so I'd love for you to show it to me.

Right now I am still leary of Guardian, but I will watch him tonight and see what happens. If he is cop as he says, I probably will not get results as the scum will avoid him, unless I am role blocked.

Or I could end up dead b.c he is lying, and is scum himself.

Either way I'm not up for Lynching him today, I am willing to vote for Pyro right now, maybe SL due to the odd lurking, but no one other than guardian has me that alarmed.

[Claus]

and now you're 92% sure that like Albie Claims me and Dasq are a scum team??

Albie replaces ABR, effective immediately.




======

EDIT: Since some people didn't get it. No, Albert is not getting replaced. This is just a cheap pun on DBE calling Albert "Albie". Move on, nothing to see here.

[Singing Librarian]

I am not willing to change my vote to Dasquian. As I have said, I do not understand the case on the duck at all. In fact, going back and looking at ABR's long explanation of the supposed case just made me more confused, particularly his deconstruction of post 515. The thing that perturbed me most here was the claim that "DAZ connects DBE to other players, under the assumed prediction that she is scum." I have read, re-read and triple-read Dasquian's post in question, and nowhere in it can I see this behaviour exhibited. I see Dasquian questioning DBE's method of hunting for scumpairs all the time, but there is no linking of her to other players.

As Dasq connecting DBE (apparently his partner) to other players appears to be the core of ABR's argument and I simply cannot see it, then I can hardly go along with ABR's plea to vote Daquian and "make him win". Happy to switch vote to DBE, though, if needed.

[Dasquian]

Uh, ABR just got replaced? Didn't see that one coming. In any case: welcome Albie, I hope you are a little less rabid than your predecessor. Please feel free to unvote me while you get to grips with the thread

/*
* That was my failed attempt at a joke. ABR/Albie is still in the game.
* Claus
*/

I'm also going to

unvote: mbf

. I do think the case against him was fair; I also think he backed himself into a "no lynch is good amirite?" corner and defended it, which I think is scummy. However, I do agree with whoever said it that the recent posts from him come across as frustrated townie more than scum.

Guardian, I get a worse and worse vibe from. He's so, so willing to just run with whatever idea gets a lynch. In his last post, he's got gambler's fallacy (assuming ABR's "hot streak" carries over to here), and ties that into Near's supposed-clear (though I'm now wondering if that was prearranged somehow), and then draws the conclusion that he must be right and that everyone should follow ABR. Great, again, apart from the bit where, for all ABR and Guardian's bluster, they're completely wrong. That said, I'm still not going to vote him.

If PyroDwarf is scum, I suspect mbf isn't. I really do think his last post was an attempt to squeeze a semi-claim out of mbf. If mbf is scum, PyroDwarf might be... he could've been prepping a scum buddy for a doc claim.

Anyway, things for me to do in a spare twenty minutes:

- Look at PD's posts in isolation to see if more springs out than just the recent
- Look at my own posts in isolation versus ABR's case to try and make it go away; I hate doing this but it looks like I probably should.

[Joudas]

Re: the Pyro / Dasquian / DBE scumgroup theory, it makes more sense (to me) to target Dasquian today to prove or disprove at least part of this. If Dasquian turns up scum, I will be willing to rethink DBE. Having re-read the case against them, it does make sense. Pyro isn't really connected to the two of them very solidly at all (or to anyone, that I'm seeing, with the possible exclusion of MBF as noted above). If Pyro turns up scum, it doesn't really give us much information regarding the other two. If Dasquian turns up town, it would solidly reinforce in my mind that DBE is town.

Of that proposed group, DBE is the weak link, in my opinion. I think Dasquian / Pyro / MBF is much more likely right now.

MBF's refusal to claim under pressure seems weak - the chance of another power role right now (assuming we can consider DBE and Guardian's claims to be truthful) is slim at best, and it almost feels like he didn't want to raise suspicions about himself or possibly DBE (his proposed partner) by making a 4th PR claim, until she's proven to be scum at which point he may come back with "Hey I'm doc k?" or something similar. By claiming vanilla townie he'd have locked himself into it and wouldn't have been able to pull this off nearly as easily.

It's a reasonable assumption that he may also have seen DBE as a likely target and taken the opportunity to buddy up to her following her newbie mistakes in hopes that she'll get killed, making it easier for him to off Guardian without getting caught.

The 'I want a no lynch so I'm voting Coron' thing yesterday still sits wrong with me, too.

On these notes, I'm going to go ahead and suggest a Dasquian / PyroDwarf / MBF or Dasquian / MBF / DBE group. Dasquian being scum or not would implicate or clear DBE in my mind, and is a common link between both groups, so I'll

Vote: Dasquian

, which'll make it easier tomorrow while still lynching likely scum today.

[Dasquian]

What am I on now? L-1 or L-2? In either case, please not to be hammering me while I construct some sort of a proper "stop doing this" post.

The executive version is: "don't do this, I'm not scum, and I'm only getting fingered by being the common link between other people who may or may not be scum"

[Albert B. Rampage]

As it stands, Dasquian will be lynched at deadline, and I am very happy about this.

ABR, is my abandoning of the Near wagon (your predecesor) on Day 1 a bad thing?

It was your call, and yours alone. If you were extremely certain that Near was town, then abandoning the wagon was the right thing.

Albert, why do you keep not mentioning Joudas? You say we need pyro, mac, sl's, votes, but never mention joudas. why?

My memory sucks.

Please elaborate on this part of your case, I'm not fully understanding it. Specifically, what are you seeing in that quote by Dasquian that shows knowledge of players' alignment?

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS)

Oh, that's because he sides with the already-dead tracker, and sets up Near's lynch the next day; even apprehensive town wouldn't jump on that opportunity with so much certainty.

He also implies that the tracker is town by using the word "ridiculous" instead of a word like "scummy". As in, Dasq knew that Coron was town, and that Coron's play was a stupid mistake, instead of a mafia gambit.

More generally, could you explain why you think Yosarian is the third member of the scumgroup, specifically as opposed to MBF or PyroDwarf? PyroDwarf in particular seems to fit into your theory better than Yosarian, and be very scummy independent of it, whereas I still don't see much of a case on Yos.

Its not useful to get into this at the moment, but its something I'd like to return to when both Dasq and DBE are proven scum.

I do not disagree that Pyro should be more closely examined, however I urge you to strongly consider writing off Dasquian for today, especially now that DBE-scum says she wants to lynch Pyro.

"DAZ connects DBE to other players, under the assumed prediction that she is scum." I have read, re-read and triple-read Dasquian's post in question, and nowhere in it can I see this behaviour exhibited. I see Dasquian questioning DBE's method of hunting for scumpairs all the time, but there is no linking of her to other players.

First off, I'm really happy that you also think DBE is lying scum.

Second, I understand that I was unclear with this important part of my case, so I'll develop on that:

OK. I can get behind that. I was feeling somewhat trapped by my previous conviction on Near and our proximity to the deadline, but in truth I'm going off it a bit.

Unvote, vote DarlaBlueEyes

I did a quick skim of her posts - things that stand out are:

- Continual scumbuddy hunting/logic. She doesn't seem to hunt individual scum so much as look for the pair, and accuse pairs. I'm not sure if this is a scum-tell, but it is pretty weird. It would be a behaviour scum might fall into more readily, given their own constant awareness of scum-mates.
-

"A good townsperson wants the mafia gone, and would be searching for them, therefore the most logical reasoning would be that those laying low are either Scum or a Non-Townie. " is something to come back on if DBE shows up scum, given it suggests her scum-mates would have been active at the time.

- Stuff about Coron's claim you've already covered, and I agree with. Seems like it's a cheap shot at Coron to set him up for tomorrow, because you know he's a tracker.

Dasquian says that if DBE shows up scum, it would mean that her partners would have been active at the time. This is unfounded logic, WIFOM, and serves no purpose other than to confuse the town if either of them shows up scum, not to mention that he has no reason to vote for DBE since it is

impossible

for her to get lynched at 3 days from deadline.

In other words, his vote and claim is just talk. Pure distancing and no harm done to his partner DBE.

[Albert B. Rampage]

EBWOP

impossible = highly improbable in theory, considering the context. That means that Dasquian has no real hopes of getting DBE lynched, which is my point against him.

[mikeburnfire]

Hey....

...is everybody voting Dasquian mainly because we think DBE is scum, but don't want to lynch her because her watcher role is so useful?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Hey....

...is everybody voting Dasquian mainly because we think DBE is scum, but don't want to lynch her because her watcher role is so useful?

The answer to this question will be of no use whatsoever.

Guardian investigates DBE tonight. If Dasquian is scum and Guardian dies, we lynch DBE. If DBE is, by some inconceivable twist, a watcher, we lynch the scum that targeted Guardian and are left with one scum left.

[Guardian]

fyi, there's no way I'm investigating DBE tonight. if dbe is scum, I'm dead tonight. if dbe is town, she's dead tonight.

there's no way we gain from me investigating dbe tonight.

conversely:
dbe SHOULD investigate me.
if dbe is town, we find out who kills me if they are foolish enough to.
if dbe is scum, we find me dead and dbe lying about it.

[DarlaBlueEyes]

why should I investigate you when you refuse to investigate me?

That hardly seems fair and seems pretty damn scummy to me.

Why does everyone find it so hard to believe I am the watcher?

[Dasquian]

Cops are different to watchers; you don't necessarily deserve a fair reciprocation of abilities and actually it's more scummy to insist on it! That said, although I think there's a lot to be gained by you watching Guardian, if he *is* scum the purpose could be simply to tie you up for an evening and possibly find the doctor (or learn of the existence of one). Vice versa, if you're scum, asking you to watch him is a pointless courtesy. It doesn't really help anyone else

ABR is spouting more circumstantial rhetoric.

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS)

Oh, that's because he sides with the already-dead tracker, and sets up Near's lynch the next day; even apprehensive town wouldn't jump on that opportunity with so much certainty.

When I said that, it was still a few days before the deadline and I was arguing against the push to get Coron lynched. Get your facts straight, eh? btw, lynching Coron was, once again, Guardian's Great Idea. He didn't manage a Coron bandwagon a few days before the deadline, but could push it through once it got to T minus 8 hours and only a handful of people were around.

Frankly the quote you have there is just appalled shock that we'd D1 lynch anyone claiming power-role

solely for claiming a power-role

, when we had a better lynch lined up. Here's the quote in its entirety, which ABR chose not to share:

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS) instead of Mr Scummy Near who has lurked all day and is not posting through L-2 and L-1 now? I say "not posting" rather than lurking now since it's the weekend and anyone gets a break for that in my book.

[Dasquian]

Hey, I probably should've posted the whole thing:

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS) instead of Mr Scummy Near who has lurked all day and is not posting through L-2 and L-1 now? I say "not posting" rather than lurking now since it's the weekend and anyone gets a break for that in my book.

As much as I dislike Coron's play here, jumping on him for it and attempting to get him lynched when he's actually claimed an information role is not a sound idea and is exactly the kind of rush-lynch that sucks for the town.

Yeah, I "called it", because it seemed like

common bloody sense

, not because I had any special knowledge.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, you still keep changing what your "biggest issue" with me is to whatever is the hot button issue. And the second reason is just a matter of opinion, and apparently everyone here has a bad opinion. ABR is new, so maybe he'll support me on this.

Well, there was one reason my biggest issue did change over the course of the day today. At the start of the day, the thing I hated most about your day 1 play was the bad case you made against Coron. Then, after you actually admitted to trying to cause a no-lynch, my focus more shifted to that; not because I stopped hating the case you made on Coron, but because the no-lynch thing seems like an even stronger scumtell to me.

[Yosarian2]

Albert: Well, whatever. I'd still like to hear exactally why you think me and DBE is linked or whatever, you're the second person to say it and it makes absolutly no sense to me. I still don't really see your case on Dasquian either; you could run that past me again?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Albert: Well, whatever. I'd still like to hear exactally why you think me and DBE is linked or whatever, you're the second person to say it and it makes absolutly no sense to me. I still don't really see your case on Dasquian either; you could run that past me again?

I feel the same way about your case on MBF. Let's just let the chips fall where they may, yes ?

Frankly the quote you have there is just appalled shock that we'd D1 lynch anyone claiming power-role

solely for claiming a power-role

, when we had a better lynch lined up. Here's the quote in its entirety, which ABR chose not to share:

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS) instead of Mr Scummy Near who has lurked all day and is not posting through L-2 and L-1 now? I say "not posting" rather than lurking now since it's the weekend and anyone gets a break for that in my book.

Point stands. You defended Coron while he was alive because you knew he was town, IMO. It was your best strategical move, especially since your scum partner DBE was already on Coron's tail.

I also notice that it was the "weekend", and you could easily have missed the deadline with that unvote because players were "not posting" as you say. The fact remains that there's no way DBE would be lynched and that vote was scummy as all hell.

I'm very amused Dasquian and DBE are proving my point that all that distancing between them was total crap, by both seeming offended that I would implicate the other and post as little as possible about their thoughts on each other.

Check their recent posts, you just can't make this stuff up.

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm...I don't really buy that as a scumtell, Albert, mostly because I thought Coron was pretty obv town during day 1.

[Claus]

Vote Count!

Dasquian 4 - ABR, Guardian, MBF, Joudas
MBF 1 - Yos2
Pyrodwarf 1 - Singing Librarian

Not voting:

Pyrodwarf, DBE, Macavenger, Dasquian

With 10 players alive, it is 6 to lynch!

[mikeburnfire]

I'm very amused Dasquian and DBE are proving my point that all that distancing between them was total crap, by both seeming offended that I would implicate the other and post as little as possible about their thoughts on each other.

Check their recent posts, you just can't make this stuff up.

I agree. I don't think much will be able to dissuade me that Dasq and DBE are scum. And I still think there is more reason to believe that Pyro is the third, rather than Yos or Mac.

[Joudas]

Vote Count!
Dasquian 4 - ABR, Guardian, MBF, Joudas
MBF 1 - Yos2
Pyrodwarf 1 - Singing Librarian

Not voting:
Pyrodwarf, DBE, Macavenger, Dasquian

Oh, okay, I'll vote Dasquian again, then.

/*
* Whut?
*/

[DarlaBlueEyes]

I don't think he is scum But I'd vote Dasq to prove a point that I am not his scum buddy, you can call it distancing or not but a good scum buddy wouldn't put their partner at L-1 now would they?

[DarlaBlueEyes]

Arent There just 9 Alive?

*scratches head*

[Macavenger]

I don't think he is scum But I'd vote Dasq to prove a point that I am not his scum buddy, you can call it distancing or not but a good scum buddy wouldn't put their partner at L-1 now would they?

My god, the WIFOM, someone help I'm drowni-

Very tempted to vote Dasquian now.