Mini 551- Mod Abandoned

[ting =)]

I'm opposed to a no lynch largely because the blocks are that much harder; the risk of scum going unblocked is quite high simply because someone is left unpaired. The risk, of course, being that SF could be cop and there would still be a kill and we would then lynch SF.

Yes, we'd be leaving two people unpaired, SF and one other. I'm proposing Korts be the other unpaired, as I think he's town. Also, yes - if there's an nk, we'd be lynching SF next, but for that to happen, it would mean that one of the pairs is made up of two scum. So, after we lynch SF, we look at the pairings to find an easy pair of scum.

@CES.
If no nks happen, SF will

still

be the first person we lynch. It wouldn't be much different than if we lynch him now, except that we'd be having more info before we actually lynch him.

That's, I think, a reasonably sound pairing. If you have any objections, glad to hear them.

Er, yes, like cave said, your pairings don't work. You need to leave two people unpaired - SF and one other - you. The rest get paired. You can still keep the pairings you mentioned, but you shouldn't block jeru. That way, the remaining 8 players are all paired.

He probably SHOULD have mentioned the part about him not being able to be modkilled.

SF, why didn't you mention earlier that you wouldn't get modkilled no matter what? Or did you, and I missed it in my reread?

None of us knew what would happen if he broke his PR. All we got from Khel was that he'd either be modkilled, or he'd do nothing. I don't think SF knew either.

It's so ridiculously clear that SF can't prove anything, and there's no way in heck I'll be happy letting him go to night. It ends up being the exact same scenario as lynching me. I really don't understand why all of you are so outright convinced that he can't possibly be anything but a cop.

I already said I'm more inclined to believe you over SF. That doesn't mean I'm not going to be cautious. Yes, it might end up the same scenario as lynching you.

If that happens though, I'm sure you can see that 1 scum for 1 roleblocker is a good trade-off for town seeing as how there's only 3 scum and we have 7 roleblockers to spare. He can't kill without confirming he's scum.

[jerubbaal]

I'm actually more worried he's going to kill one of our more confirmed townies, like CES or Korts. Strange as this may sound, my getting lynched is actually better than a no-lynch.

[ting =)]

@Jeru.
Yes, he might. That would make you confirmed town right away though, taking the place of whoever he kills. After we lynch him, we end up with 2 confirmed and 2 scum. With no nks, it'd be pretty hard to lose as town.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Nolynch obviously isn't an option.

[Korts]

For you, maybe not.

[ting =)]

You're extremely against it CES. Why? What's so horrible about a nolynch that you don't even consider it an option? Unless the possible outcome leaves the town devoid of any chance of winning, I don't see why it can't be an option.

[Evilgorrilaz]

I'm not done with reread yet but,

If we match up two scum, they wont rb each other, and they still send in a kill. SF could be telling the truth, and then we end up lynching him, meaning 3 dead townies. Not sure if I like the plan exactly yet.

[ting =)]

Yes, I've mentioned that before. There are only 2 ways an nk can happen.

1. SF is scum.
We lynch him the next day.

2. 2 scum are paired together.
That leaves us with SF, Korts, 3 pairs, 1 person whose pair got nk'd. The pair with CES probably didn't make the night kill. The person whose partner got nk'd didn't make the night kill either. That leaves 2 pairs. 1 lynch will tell us whether that pair is clear. If that pair is clear, then we've caught 2 scum - the other pair.

If SF is telling the truth, which is what you're worried about, this plan actually makes the most use of his cop role. Lynching SF now obviously kills him. Lynching Jeru now is something I'd rather not do unless I'm certain.

If you don't like a no lynch, what do you suggest? I'm willing to change my mind if a better plan pops up.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Look, me and Korts are confirmed, okay? A 9-man situation with 1 confirmed townie isn't better than a 10-man situation with 2 confirmed townies. It just isn't. Therefore, nolynch is a bad idea.

Can we

finally

lynch SF now?

[jerubbaal]

FYI, no-lynch is doubly bad from your perspectives because if someone dies, you can't even be certain that it was SF who did the killing. The absolute worst-case scenario in this whole mess is if SF is actually cop, but two scum get paired together and kill anyway, requiring you to kill SF.

This isn't the case, SF is scum, but even considering your perspective, no-lynch makes absolutely zero sense. You need to lynch me or SF, and after all this crap about SF renigging, I don't know why there's still this much debate.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Ting has a valid point about it probably not being such a hard thing to find the scum if they manage to off someone and SF is cop. Since I don't consider CESc to be confirmed - and frankly, I don't like the idea of betting the game on Korts being completely confirmed either - I don't consider the point that we'd have two confirmeds and that we'd easily be able to find the scum isn't valid. Still, I guess it should be relatively easy to deduce what's going on.

Anyway, not committing to anything before I get a reply from SF.

[SensFan]

[SF, why didn't you mention earlier that you wouldn't get modkilled no matter what? Or did you, and I missed it in my reread?

Vote: I

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Vote: I
Vote: T

[Cavebear with a toothache]

That's... Really not a good answer. We could've avoided wasting a fair amount of time if you'd explained that even if you broke the PR the mod would do nothing.

Bah, enough of this. I want to know what's going on; I want to know if SF is a cop or not. Right now, I don't believe that he is, and I'm increasingly willing to lynch him. If he's scum, great. If he really is a cop, at least we get one scum and still have a pretty good position for the rest of the game.

Vote: SensFan

[Korts]

Hey, Cavebear, this is no time to snap. If he's cop and you get him lynched.... hey, I don't really know how to finish this sentence. Whatever. Unvote. Now.

[Joubert]

Is there any plan B for if we lose the Cop?

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

There is no cop. Hence, there is no plan B.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Alright, fine, let's talk this over some more...

Unvote

I'm convinced there is an objectively best course of action here, but right now, I just don't see it. Choosing the path that provides the most information doesn't seem like such a bad idea.

If he's cop and you get him lynched....

...I'll be sure to regret it, and then we lynch jerubbaal, and then there are two scum left and we have a large amounts of blockers? Doesn't seem all that different from the scenario where we lynch jerubbaal and he's town. Or if we no lynch and SF dies. Or if we no lynch and someone dies and we lynch SF and he's town. Frankly, I don't consider the option where we keep SF and he investigates everyone and they're the scum and we just win as realistic, that seems way too easy. See also: Murphy's law.

[Evilgorrilaz]

I'm game with ting=)'s plan.

[Korts]

Cool. Everyone accounted for? Well then,

Vote: No Lynch

[jerubbaal]

This is a mistake, and a large one.

[ting =)]

Mistake? Maybe. A large mistake? No. We get one nk at worse, which will reveal a lot more information than we currently have on the table. What's funny is that both Jeru and cave never made that big a deal about a no lynch - as long as a different plan was more likely to happen.

vote:no lynch

If SF is cop, I'd think Jeru, Cave and CES are scum.
If SF is scum, I'd think SF, Joubert and Xyl are scum.

Whichever one it is, or even if my guesses are all wrong, an nk will tell us at least one scum, or all.

------------

Frankly, I don't consider the option where we keep SF and he investigates everyone and they're the scum and we just win as realistic, that seems way too easy.

Ease of victory is not a disqualifying criteria for lynch options. Even if we lynch either Jeru or SF, the win will still be pretty easy because we've found we're all roleblockers so early in the game.

[Shanba]

Thing about no lynch is, well, we don't lose anything. 10 alive is actually worse odds than 9 alive.

[ting =)]

For now. We aren't going to no lynch forever you know. We

will

lynch eventually.

[Evilgorrilaz]

Lets see where this takes us.

Vote: No Lynch

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Thing about no lynch is, well, we don't lose anything. 10 alive is actually worse odds than 9 alive.

No, it's not. I actually clearly explained why in another post of mine, but people don't seem to read them anymore.

Nolynch is by far the worst thing we could do today.

Let me repeat that for importance:

Nolynch is by far the worst thing we could do today.