Cultafia: Game over

[curiouskarmadog]

SLy, do you think we have another vig?

also Arm, same questions.

[aioqwe]

Hjallti being vig based on his posting of the 2 vig theory. Though the penguin FOSing mno for claiming a kill she made thing no longer fits into this theory, which was another one of the vig tells I thought I had on Hjallti. If you can see any flaws with this logic, let me know.

So you believe Hjalti is vig A or B, which? and TSS is an/the SK?

[armlx]

aioqwe: Yeah, the gist is

N1:
Unknown Vig policy kills DGB
TSS (sk) is blocked my mno

N2:
Hjallti kills vikingfan, who was under suspicion yesterday
TSS kills Blaze to try and cover up the RB N1 thing by killing the person most likely to talk about it
Mno attempts to recruit Yos, it fails meaning Yos dying is a good thing for him and he tries to press a Yos lynch on poor reasoning.

[springlullaby]

Armlx, why are you so insistent to out me as a vig? If I were one, wouldn't you say that it's not smart of you?

Also I already asked, where the TSS is an SK talk comes from? Do you think he is an SK with the same certainty that you seem to think I'm a vig?

aioqwe, now that you are back, please answer the question I adressed to you.

[aioqwe]

Which question Spring?

[aioqwe]

Assuming this is what you were referring to,

Also, what struck me at the end of D1, when I realized that I had possibly misinterpreted stuff, were the people 'on my side'. Skruff kinda counts in that category. So does aioqwe, I'd like him to explain this:

The more this continues the more inclined I am to believe armlx/yos. Personally I wouldn't call it mindless puppy following. That's more like people who just pop in to post QFT! or whatever.

I was agreeing with yos/armlx that claiming is not good. I didn't think that armlx was mindlessly following yos around.

On that note, armlx insistence on spring being a vig might make him seem like a recruit as he is backtracking on his original opinions of not claiming. However, I'm undecided on this.

[armlx]

SL: During the whole dumb Skruffs argument, my claim to know your role was heavily questioned. I revealed my thoughts once I realized my logic was flawed what I thought it was, but then later realized a minor alteration to the scenario I thought of explained a lot of the things that occurred earlier (mno's false watcher pseudo claim, his attacking yos D2, DGB dying N1, etc)

The TSS = SK talk comes from the 1 kill N1, and that said kill was DGB who seems more likely to be a policy kill then an SK trying to kill those who stand the biggest threat to him, and I'd assume a N1 vig kill in this set up, so I'm assuming one kill was stopped. Blaze claimed to have blocked TSS, so that would explain a missing kill.

[armlx]

Also, aioqwe, I never said SL should claim, I don't see how my views on claiming conflict with my actions. Like I said above, I revealed my thought processes when I realized they were originally wrong (mno + Hjallti being vig, off as I don't see Penguin killing DGB N1), then posted the correction later. If my theory is right, we kill a CL and its definitely a trade up, if its not the odds of SL being vig aren't that much higher than anyone else.

Of course, if the SK decided to kill DGB N1 everything I've determined it wrong, but I see no logical reason for them to not kill those who are most likely to find them, especially with no protective roles to outguess.

[Yosarian2]

Mno attempts to recruit Yos, it fails meaning Yos dying is a good thing for him and he tries to press a Yos lynch on poor reasoning.

Uh, that dosn't make a lot of sense, armlx; I mean, hypo-Mno-recruiter would have known he'd be roleblocked, right? So if he "attemted to recruit me and failed", why would that make him want to kill me since he'd have known he was roleblocekd anyway?

[armlx]

Judging by what he started the day with I'm assuming he had no clue he would be RBed.

[the silent speaker]

Only that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, since Blaze said he would roleblock him. Not that I have a better explanation other than "mnowax is nuts".

[armlx]

I realize it doesn't make sense that he wouldn't, but look at how he phrased his "Yos didn't die to my kill, must be scum". He evidently had no clue about potentially being RBed. Other thing that leads me to this is a lack of reason to vig Yos, but definitely value to recruiting him.

[Yosarian2]

I was going more along the line of logic that he knew he was going to be roleblocked, got recruited, then decided to try and get me lynched without really thinking through the fact that everyone else'd also know he got roleblocked. Perhaps planning to suddenly "realize" Blaze had said he was going got roleblocked after I get lynched and come up town.

I donno, it still dosn't make THAT much sense, but it was the most logical explination for his actions I could come up with.

[armlx]

I was going more along the line of logic that he knew he was going to be roleblocked, got recruited, then decided to try and get me lynched without really thinking through the fact that everyone else'd also know he got roleblocked. Perhaps planning to suddenly "realize" Blaze had said he was going got roleblocked after I get lynched and come up town.

I donno, it still dosn't make THAT much sense, but it was the most logical explination for his actions I could come up with.

Also possible. However, between these two scenarios, I'm just as sure he is cult as I am vollkan is, and also find it more likely he is a leader than vollkan.

[mnowax]

why does everyone think i am cult??? i am NOT CULT im not a leader, im not a recruit. how can i prove this to you guys??

[armlx]

If you can find a flaw in my theory, I will gladly unvote. Just posting "I R NOT CULT" will not get me to do that.

[Yosarian2]

why does everyone think i am cult???

Because you're acting scummy? Because your claimed night actions make no sense?

[aioqwe]

Also, aioqwe, I never said SL should claim

The way you broadcast your theory makes it seem as such. Regardless, that would only put you in the position of recruit and I think it's more important to be looking for recruiters.

Mno seems to be playing pretty cluelessly. Makes me want to

vote:Mno

.

[vollkan]

Mno attempts to recruit Yos, it fails meaning Yos dying is a good thing for him and he tries to press a Yos lynch on poor reasoning.

Maybe I am missing something, but why is it rational for recruiter-mno to push an insane lynch against Yos?

I mean, aside from the RB issue, I don't see the rationale for mno-recruiter to do something like that. Moreover, I give mno more credit than to think he'd really be that careless as a CR.

[curiouskarmadog]

Mno is not a lynch today at best he could be a recruit..we need to hit a fucking recruiter.

[Norinel]

6 days. As I'm about to post in V/LA, I might have limited access over the weekend; I'll try to get on to finalize (or extend) the deadline on Monday.

Vote Count

vollkan (3) - Yosarian2, Skruffs, mnowax
mnowax (3) - armlx, SlySly, aioqwe
Skruffs (2) - springlullaby, Beep! Beep!

Not voting (4): curiouskarmadog, NabakovNabakov, the silent speaker, vollkan

7 to lynch, 4 at deadline.

[armlx]

Mno attempts to recruit Yos, it fails meaning Yos dying is a good thing for him and he tries to press a Yos lynch on poor reasoning.

Maybe I am missing something, but why is it rational for recruiter-mno to push an insane lynch against Yos?

I mean, aside from the RB issue, I don't see the rationale for mno-recruiter to do something like that. Moreover, I give mno more credit than to think he'd really be that careless as a CR.

My assumption is mno tried to recruit Yos and failed. That means to him Yos is a recruiter, SK, steadfast, or doc-protected. First 2 are things his vig claim covers and that are a threat to him (this is assuming that he forgot all about the RB, which it seems he did), the 3rd is just a threat to him and could be awkward to deal with, 4th is just awkward.

[the silent speaker]

vollkan, the problem with that thinking is that he QED

was

that careless, as whatever he may be.

[NabakovNabakov]

I think if we're going to assign insanity to Mno, it has to be across the board. If he was insane enough to completely dismiss the possibility of being blocked, he would be insane enough to target Yos for no good reason/aggressively push his lynch. Don't try to make an argument by ascribing sense to only one or two specific parts of Mno's play. Insanity is a null tell.

[armlx]

I think if we're going to assign insanity to Mno, it has to be across the board. If he was insane enough to completely dismiss the possibility of being blocked, he would be insane enough to target Yos for no good reason/aggressively push his lynch. Don't try to make an argument by ascribing sense to only one or two specific parts of Mno's play. Insanity is a null tell.

The only sense I feel I'm ascribing is him as cult leader wanting to target Yosarian. If you see somewhere else my argument fails this issue, I would like to hear it.