Mini 568 - Nubigena (Game over!)

[Mizzy]

Mizzy: She appeals pretty strongly to emotion with her 'not caring/look on jerubbaal's face' bit. jerubbaal is back and forth her quite a bit, like he's testing the waters to figure out of he has to bus her or if he can get some action on either Ripley or Incognito (whichever one is town).

Or maybe I'd just think it would be really, really funny :3 I've said those kind of things a lot as town, so don't be so quick to think it's a scumtell.

[jerubbaal]

Gorckat, at least don't vote until we've discussed this. Neither you or Y seem to be taking this terribly seriously, and you're our confirmed townies. I don't want to walk into a quicklynch.

I think I've been pretty clear on my evaluation of Mizzy - her play has been completely town, but unless this setup has a GF (extremely unlikely), she has to be mafia. That's about the only relevant case I have on her at this point, I'll try to dig up something more useful as we go. Ripley and Incog are much easier to see as scum though, but perhaps that's just because I know they have to be.

Ripley has played nice guy all game, and he never actually joins any of the wagons until they're well established. Look at his voting history. He's right that he kind of stuck up for Near, but he never committed a vote until it came down to the deadline. Retaining that kind of flexibility early on is very valuable for scum, not so much for town.

You do realize that we all have to vote for the scum in order to lynch them, unless scum are willing to bus at this point. Mizzy is kind of their ace-in-the-hole, she's played so well, you'll notice that none of them are really putting any pressure on her, even though they "should" have realized that she must be scum.

[gorckat]

Again with not counting ooba as a confirmed townie. If there is a GF, then I'd bet on ooba being it.

And I am taking this seriously. I just don't think we need to stand around and hold our [self-censored] for three weeks deciding that we need to actually vote at some point.

[destructor]

.::] Vote Count [::.

Ripley (1)

- Y

jerubbaal² (1)

- gorckat

Not Voting (5) - jerubbaal², Incognito, Mizzy, Ripley, ooba

Four

votes makes a lynch.

[Y]

I'm voting Ripley, IIRC, but I'll

unvote

anyways.
Fixed. - mod

jerubbaal, you're accusing Ripley for the exact thing he just explained: That he doesn't vote so easily. I can understand him, since I'm the same.

Actually if anything it was the Day 1 Ripley that was the anomaly; I’ve rarely been as confident of a D1 lynch as I was about Sammich/Niv. Day 2 was much more like how I usually am. I rarely vote, I’m very cautious, I think aloud, I’m uncertain of my conclusions, all of which is intolerable to the kind of hyperconfident player who always knows they’re right, and that their playstyle is the only acceptable playstyle, and who will with an inevitable predictability demand that I be lynched for being wishy-washy and not naming scum or reaching firm conclusions at the point in the game that they, personally, insist that I should, and I’ve been through all of this so often I’m slouching with boredom just thinking about it.

Loved this part, but it bothers me that you weren't able to accept the same for me.

I probably won't have access for the next four days or so.

[Incognito]

Why don’t you check the records? Imat, a normally prolific poster who was in several other games, didn’t post anywhere on the site for six days from Sat April 5th to Fri April 11th – which covers the whole of the period of Near’s claim and the deadline – apart from one post on Weds 9th in a game that had finished while he was away. He informed the mod that he had limted access until Friday and did indeed resume normal posting on the Friday. You seem to be suggesting I was favoring Imat by not accusing him of faking almost a week’s absence from all his games in order to avoid a deadline in one game, and I think that’s simply ridiculous.

It's not

that

ridiculous. I've faked an absence from all of my games before when I was scum in one of them, and I'm sure other players have too. Further, if he did actually inform the mod of that other game about his inability to post I feel like he could have done the same thing here.

Actually if anything it was the Day 1 Ripley that was the anomaly; I’ve rarely been as confident of a D1 lynch as I was about Sammich/Niv. Day 2 was much more like how I usually am. I rarely vote, I’m very cautious, I think aloud, I’m uncertain of my conclusions, all of which is intolerable to the kind of hyperconfident player who always knows they’re right, and that their playstyle is the only acceptable playstyle, and who will with an inevitable predictability demand that I be lynched for being wishy-washy and not naming scum or reaching firm conclusions at the point in the game that they, personally, insist that I should, and I’ve been through all of this so often I’m slouching with boredom just thinking about it.

I'm familiar with your playstyle, and I realize that you usually pick up a lot of flak because of it even when you're town. Either way, I still feel like you seemed fairly confident about a D1 Crub-lynch in 516 so I don't think it's as much of an anomaly as you're saying it is. I suppose it's possible that your playstyle could evolve during D2 and beyond.

[jerubbaal]

I don't have any time to write out any sort of reasoned response at this point, but you would have to be blind to not see how nice all the rest of the confirmeds are being to each other. Holy hell, you are not this nice to people who are almost certain scum at this point when we're lylo and still have three scum floating around.

I'll be honest, I hate waffling, partially because it's a playstyle which is really only advantageous to scum, but sooo many townies still do it. The fact remains, you're scum, Ripley, and I'm going to see everything you do with a scum motivation rather than a town motivation, even if a town motivation is possible. Your play was not terrible early on, I'm just moderately pissed that I replaced in for the unconfirmed with the weakest play days 1 and 2 who actually ended up being townie, and now I have to manage to not get lynched for three whole fricking days to actually win this game, plus our doc was an idiot and let our cop die. You'll have to forgive the frustration.

[gorckat]

plus our doc was an idiot and let our cop die.

Piss off. Near was hardly clean looking adn had done an ass load of shit that would have gotten him lynched.

[jerubbaal]

He was an uncounterclaimed cop. Regardless of how scummy he looked, you protect him.

[Mizzy]

I very much agree; when you have an uncountered investigation role of any kind, and you're the doc, you protect them. Your opinions can screw the game over if you happen to be wrong, and it's better safe than sorry for the town.

[gorckat]

Right, cause scummy players have NEVER claimed cop before.

[Mizzy]

Right, cause scummy players have NEVER claimed cop before.

I didn't say they're guaranteed to be pro-town, but if you don't play it safe, then THIS happens, where they WERE telling the truth, and he was allowed to die because you were biased against him. I don't think you're stupid because of it, but your egotistical opinions got in the way of common sense there, I think, and now the cop is gone. Live and learn.

[Mizzy]

Mod:

Sorry, Gabe is sick and he's not sleeping much right now. Please consider me on V/LA until he's feeling better and I can actually function again. Feel free to replace me if you think it's needed.

[Ripley]

It's not that ridiculous. I've faked an absence from all of my games before when I was scum in one of them, and I'm sure other players have too.

Really? For a week? From seven other games? He was in all of these games as well as this one:

Newbie 568
Newbie 559
Mini 559
Mini 551
Mini 553
Mafia 75
Enigma Mi

I think it’s bizarre in the extreme to suggest Imat might have faked a week off all these games to avoid a deadline in one which he could not even in advance have known might present him with any kind of a problem (his absence began two days before Near’s claim). It’s even more bizarre that you are attacking me for not attacking him on thse outlandish grounds. And this is all you offer in support of the assertion “Ripley and Imat/jerubbaal are totally scum with one another.” Except for :

I wouldn't be surprised if jerubbaal was trying desperately to win the game by setting up two possible mislynches on pro-town players. I feel like he's trying to push a lynch on Ripley, his probable scum partner, to gain some pro-town credentials for tomorrow before dropping the hammer on either me or Mizzy

Your “not being surprised” and “feeling like” are no kind of case at all. You have made absolutely no case. There is an anti-case: the actual evidence points much more towards jerubbaal's being scum with

you

. He tried to get me lynched as quickly as possible, and although by his own logic he should be equally willing to vote for you, when challenged on this he said, yes, he’d be happy lynching you, of

course

he would, but – here’s a surprise – he’s actually going to stick to going after me because I’m the “easiest to persecture”. Nobody in their right minds would follow some convoluted scheme to bus a fellow scum today to gain credentials, in preference to lynching a townie for an instant win. This is just not a situation in which WIFOM applies. Scum will, unless they’re really not taking the game seriously, always prefer a straightforward win today over a convoluted possible win tomorrow.

I'm just moderately pissed that I replaced in for the unconfirmed with the weakest play days 1 and 2 who actually ended up being townie

I agree Imat’s play was weak, but you can’t be expected to explain what another player did so I’m going to stick to the issues I have with your own posts.

I don't have any time to write out any sort of reasoned response at this point,

OK, when you find time for any sort of a reasoned response, there are some things I’d really like you to respond to.

In post 876 you said this:

I think Ripley's the clear scum, so we should lynch him first without a lot of question.

In Post 880, you said this:

We're definitely not lynching anyone without looking everything over very thoroughly

I already asked you once to explain this change of heart, and you did not reply. To me it looks like when you realised this group wasn’t going to be railroaded into a quick lynch you had a rapid rethink about the best way to get us to do what you want us to do. Your entire approach, whereby you spotted that the group lacked a single dominant player and appointed yourself to that role, followed by continued attempts to control events by force of personality and by spin, rather than actual reasoned argument, has been very much that of a player trying to push the outcome he wants by whatever means he thinks will most rapidly achieve that. And even allowing for the much higher levels of confidence in their own rightness that players such as you always have, it's hard for me to see that as town behavior.

You claim to have absolutely no doubts about the situation:

I fail to see how I have expressed any doubts about the three of you being scum.

and to insist that this is the only acceptable view, while at the same time constantly repeating your doubts about Mizzy, and apparently you fail to realize the inconsistency of your own position. You repeatedly fail to offer any quotes or examples to illustrate your opinion that her play is overwhelmingly town, and in fact every example you have quoted about her or MP’s play illustrates the opposite, or is intended to, though in fact it includes blatant lies such as the following...

Also of note, none of the scum (Ripley/thephantom, Mizzy, Incog) joined in on the whole Niv/Near thing until the end when everything was quite clear.

.. which both Mizzy and I have pointed out is not true of either of us.

A further point that bothers me about jerubbaal’s play is his continued inability to remember that ooba was cleared by Near on Day 1. Again, in post 901, we have this, to gorckat:

Neither you or Y seem to be taking this terribly seriously, and you're our confirmed townies.

Not “two of our confirmed townies”, but “our confirmed townies”. Why is it that jerubbaal can’t remember this basic fact? When you’re juggling players around in your head, trying to work out a puzzle, as you do when town, details like this are crucial and pretty much unforgettable. When you’re scum, the only puzzle you face is “how do I get these people to do what I want?”. You know who is innocent and who is not, so that is not a puzzle at all. The details of who has been cleared and how and why are easily forgettable if you know exactly who's innocent anyway. If jerubbaal knows, as he claims to know, without any doubt all, that the scum are Incognito, Mizzy and Ripley, he would also know that ooba had been cleared, since the one depends on the other. And yet he keeps slipping up on this in a way that only really makes sense if the things he is claiming to know are fabricated.

Y’s most recent post and unvote took me aback somewhat; it doesn’t seem obviously like the behavior of a scum. I need to inform myself a bit better about Mini game setups. I’ve played too few to judge what’s feasible and what isn’t, so I’m going through previous comparable setups and noting the roles that were included. It’s somewhat complicated by the fact that games mostly seem to start in Day, and it’s difficult to know how much to adjust for that factor, but all the same it’s useful to see what other mods have thought to be a balanced game.

[destructor]

.::] Vote Count [::.

jerubbaal² (1)

- gorckat

Not Voting (6) - jerubbaal², Incognito, Mizzy, Ripley, ooba, Y

Four

votes makes a lynch.

ooba has been prodded.

[ooba]

Ok I'm giving this a re-read and posting my thoughts ..

[Y]

I was out of the country. I got home 15 mins ago and it's 4:00am, so any good posts will have to wait until after I get a good sleep.

[Mizzy]

Back, I think I need to do a skim re-read to see where we stand right now.

[Ripley]

Anyone not interested in discussing the setup would probably prefer to skip this post.

I looked back as far as Mini 361. One thing I discovered along the way is that there’s considerable variation in what different mods view as a balanced setup.

Gunsmiths are very rare so I was looking for 12-player games with 1 doc, 1 cop, 1 vig and no complicating factors like Serial Killers. I found 3, all of which had a Mafia godfather and two Mafia goons, with a day start. Much like Portal Mafia, the one Incognito referred to, where the town are of a comparable strength to our game, and which also had a godfather and a day start.

How much is a night start worth to the scum? Hard to say. If they hit a power role then it’s clearly very good for them. The chances of an investigator targeting a scum are around the same as the scum hitting a power role. The most likely outcome is of course that the scum hit a townie, and especially in a game with a vig it’s hard to know the value of that.

Another complication is that without seeing the role PMs it’s impossible to know whether these godfathers in the games I looked at were both NK-immune and investigation immune.

Night starts seem unusual. To me, the strongest evidence in favor of there being some extra twist to the setup is that the mod, who doesn’t strike me as having thrown this game together lightly, chose a night start preceded by a long and detailed opening post describing the events leading up to it, which ended up with the death of the NPC Godfather. Possibly just background color, but I still wonder. I can see why mods would prefer to avoid night starts – they get to start Day 1 with their carefully designed setup intact for at least one day, and there’s never a situation where a role and a player doesn’t participate. This mod wanted his game to start at night. Purely for balancing? Maybe, but there are so many other ways of fixing that.

[Incognito]

Woooo, I'm due for a prod soon. I've been busy setting up my own mini-game so this is just a quick post to let you all know I'm still here. I'll be posting more tomorrow, hopefully.

[Y]

Ripley, your post is missing one thing: Our gunsmith may get wrong reads from our power roles (Vig, for example), giving scum an advantage. Giving them an immuned godfather would be unbalanced.

[jerubbaal]

A couple responses to Ripley.

1) I did not have a "change of heart" about lynching you without question. You seemed and still seem the scummiest of the unconfirmeds, by a fairly wide margin. In my mind, you are the first and easiest lynch, without any question. Trying to twist my words around to make it seem like I'm just trying to quicklynch you is a really feeble attempt to swing this around.

2) I have been very clear regarding my position on Mizzy. I think her play has been completely town, but the way this setup looks to be balanced, I think she has to be scum. I trust my read on the situation more than my personal read of her behavior, so she must be scum.

3) Look at the day 1 wagon itself. You defended Near when he was getting beat on, and said that you were suspicious of Niv/Sammich, but you didn't commit a vote until the very end. That's just how it is. This isn't a strong point against you, because townies are very slow to vote sometimes as well, but timid scum are almost

always

slow to vote.

4) I keep forgetting that ooba is even in this game. Not exactly surprising when you consider how little he's posted. Trying to make this into a scumtell is really forcing it.



Look at the setup balancing laid out here. Ripley's right in that the absolute most basic normal setup is 1 cop, 1 doc, 1 vig, 6 town, 1 GF, 2 goons. The scenario as we have it already is weaker for the town, as we have a miller vig and a night-start. The only thing which leans town from the setup above would be the lack of a GF. If we assume that we have a GF in this scenario, this setup is leaned toward the mafia on 2 counts, which would be severely unbalanced. Unless this scenario is severely unbalanced, there is no GF (especially considering the whole GF-dies-in-the-beginning flavor stuff).

All of this pushing away from the idea of a GF is essentially scum being unwilling to bus Mizzy, who is has been essentially unquestioned all game because of MP's claim and her fairly strong play. But she

has

to be scum.

[Mizzy]

All of this pushing away from the idea of a GF is essentially scum being unwilling to bus Mizzy, who is has been essentially unquestioned all game because of MP's claim and her fairly strong play. But she

has

to be scum.

My role PM says you're completely and totally incorrect, which means your read on the set-up is also completely and totally incorrect. I know you can't take my word on it, but I'm making sure to be fully clear for future reference, just in case you guys end up being silly enough to lynch without any case on me whatsoever.

[gorckat]

But you did say Ripley should be lynched w/o question, and then said we should do nothing w/o a lot of question- its a position flip and looks like a "change of heart".

Your 3rd point is basically calling Ripley "too townie" to be townie.

If there's someone who looks to be unwilling to bus, its you. You've been debunking the idea of a GF all day, saying that Ripley, Incog and Mizzy must be scum, but then you also express surprise that Mizzy must be scum and don't want to lynch anyone but Ripley.

[gorckat]

That was @ jerubbaal, obv.