Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[armlx]

Things I don't like about Oman:

Skating through the early game.

Okay, I'm back from my holidays guys (I'll change the sig soon )

I missed the whole of D1, but firstly I'm astounded that Jessie claimed D1, and then investigated the townie that died.

Mighty coincidental, I mean, I certainly am not holding the fact that Jessie survived against him/her, as Fonz said , lotsa possible docs here.

FoS: Phate

for that, and

IGMEOY: Jessie

for that conicendence.

FoS Laptop Gun

For somehow getting "SK" out of Phates post, stinks of knowledge.

FOSing everyone with no real vote at the time basically gives him free reign to hop on any of the above wagons.

Vote: Oman because his casual FoS on me smells like swaying with public opinion.

Thats a horrible Day 2 vote.

Terrible defense against a valid vote, just trying to invalidate it without reason.

Well, my belief currently is that vollkan is right, and so is LTG. Basically: We should speculate, by no means give Jessie a free pass, but definatly Keep our eyes on.

I'm going to upgrade my fos to a

Vote Phate

Mostly for his terrible vote on me (no, this is not OMGUS, he voted me for a really poor reason).

No, definitely is OMGUS. Phate was one of the most townish people to me at this point (I don't read revealed roles until they come up in thread).

The problem with voting as mafia is 1) it solidifys your position and 2) the bold sticks out.

At the time of this post, Oman had made 1 serious vote all game.

Justin has convinced me (not to mention that arrogant tone that Kabenon used just cries for one of these).

Vote Kabenon

The Fonz: Are you opposed to me? Earlier I stated a thought on mafia theory and you gave a "please explain" and then you (I suppose Jokingly) did it again. Do you disagree with my point of view or think me scum or something?

I am against the connection between Kabenon and vollkan, I myself have versed Vollkan as scum (he shot himself). And he is a DANGEROUS scum player, not only can he hide well, the sheer weight of his words convinces a lot of players.

2 things I don't like here: The kabenon wagon and the vollkan comment later. The first might be because I have seen kabenon die 3 times as vanilla townie to date with similar behavior and found him to be pretty obvious town as such, the later because everything I have heard about vollkan is the opposite and it reeks of "Phear the good player" logic.

His 40 minute thought post seems to me like over justification of his actions.

Hmm, good point. I'd be willing to assume he investigated one of phate and farside guilty.

It worth lynching them both (/viging one) of course, pre-set lynches can always be changed ad hoc.

Suggests a strong farside connection given his attack on Phate earlier and then Phate's later confirmation of scum.

Why would you assume that when he didn't vote for either one of us.

I did not consider this. /Retract.

It's not only that he hammered, but also the way he did it.

Ah, it just seems like a lot of effort for scum to actually JUMP on a wagon that is already going to deadline lynch. I see what you mean though, its quite a jump.

The important thing here is that the reason he finds for hammering is something very dodgy.

THIS is a good point, he searched for a reason, the guilty mind.

And adding to my point is (correct me if im wrong) that volkan even said he was a decent lynch

Now, to me, this just looks newbie. Like he was following the crowd more.

I don't think randomly lynching among people the cop talked about is a good idea, Oman.

His day 2 discussion was on

Phate

[/b], Kab, and farside22.

I'm shocked you take that position.

I fail to see how my thoughts on this are relevant at all to your actions.

Damn I hate to talk before the person has answered. but this actually references a previous point. I think its newbie.


That defence being said: The hammer is damn interesting. I'm going to review this "180".

I cut out a theory section here, but he jumps off his farside comment very quickly, defends Space, and for some reason that Shteven response seems to rub me the wrong way.

His next posts regarding the Spacecase wagon seem to imply a wishy-washy stance, then he diverts to farside again.

Massive scuminess in FOSing someone because they didn't want to rush a lynch before the person could respond.

why wasn't it interesting when you weren't buying it in your response to Shteven?

Two reasons. Vollkan put it better, and by that time he was already lurking.

So, you say multiple times that you believe that SC is just a newb, but then turn around and vote him for lurking?

Since when can newbies not be scum? I felt the reversal was NOT a newbie scumtell, I felt lurking was.

As you've not weighed in on the rest of the case against SC (other than to dispute it) this would lead me to believe that you believe that SC is a lurking townie, right?

Look, town or scum, it doesn't really bother me. I think he is likely to be scum (like I said, newbie town doesn't lurk when under review like this), but either way, he's anti-town. Yes, I am a "lynch all lurkers" and yes if he claimed vig or something I'd unvote him.

Once quite a few other folks were talking about SC's quick 180, however, you figured you'd hop on that wagon.

But not because of what others are doing, because of my own rules.

If anybody looks to be scumbuddies with SC, I'd say you're a pretty good candidate....

I don't understand. On what is essentially a weak wagon, why would I jump on? It would be much easier, as a scumbuddy, to refute this wagon 'till death and use WIFOM to escape. I've done it before...I think.

Oman just pulled a thinly veiled OMGUS. This looks fascinating. FOS Oman

HoS LTG

I think you're scum.

That was obviously a joke. Now, I'm not OMGUSing him. I'm simply saying that last line looks like scum. The thing is, it only holds if Spacecase turns up town, so I promise you, if he comes up town, MCD gets a vote. If he comes up scum...I'll look elsewhere.

his defense of spacecase followed by joining it based on lurking is very suspect.

I'm a fan of the LAL meta.

His quick reversal on Spacecase (innocent newbie -> lurking scum) makes him suspect.

Do I have to say it again....I think I will: I only reversed my postion on him when the situation changed. I also think you should change your diagram (innocent newbie -> lurking newbie).

NEWBIES CAN BE SCUM TOO!! YOUR BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THIS THOUGHT THAT "NEWBIE" ALWAYS MEANS TOWN. NEW PEOPLE CAN BE SCUM ABOUT 1/3 OF THE TIME. RAWRRRRRR!

Pushing the lynch on weak logic is not good given the alignment, as its an easy excuse to jump off, his response to the allegations of OMGUS seems off, same with the discussion of WIFOMing out of a wagon.

However, theres one town tell here: Setting up the anti-town logic on someone who if he was mafia he would know wouldn't show up as town and he wouldn't have to talk out of that scenario like that. Definitely not major enough to blank out the rest of his posts at all though.

Nothing major up till this

Wagon slowing.

Makes me wonder.

I might unvote.

.....

A wagon slowing in that scenario does not imply town. It implies scum that isn't getting piled on / bussed very hard, and he is looking for a weak excuse to unvote.

The rest of the day he spends time playing both sides of the wagon, looking for an out while still being aggressive. Finds said out in the Rigel wagon, where he Votes/FOS's 2 non-Spacecase people.

He later admits

I haven't really been reading Rigel heavily. I'm on my mobile so I won't be reading. if anyone doesn't mind showing me why they think he is town/scum, I would love to read it over the next few days.

after he hops on the wagon.

Analytical enough for you?

[dcorbe]

Armix (and to everyone in general),

[quote "armix"] Analytical enough for you?[/quote]

I guess. One post. But as I said you haven't been on this thread very long so I don't quite know what to make of it yet.

There's still a few people left (The Fonz, vollkan iamuser) who still haven't commented yet; however, nobody has rushed to my defense yet and based on the initial reaction to my presence here and the comments thus far in reaction to what I have posted, it doesn't look as if anyone is going to rush to my defense either.

You would think that with an SK still in the game, and only 2 Mafia left, that the mob wouldn't want to hang their own out to dry.

As you pointed out, I have most of the lynch votes right now. Who else do you suspect as mob? Surely a mob-on-mob voting wouldn't be taking place this late in the game, with so few mobsters left.

If I were mob, SOMEONE out there would be defending me right now, no?

I'm only asking for the benefit of the doubt here.

[armlx]

No, that logic is poor, as if someone blatantly defends you then you turn up mafia on death, the connection is pretty obvious.

Most of the time, btw, there is no benefit of the doubt in mafia. You will find 60%+ of lynches happen with some kind of doubt. The rest are usually people who failed to confirm a confirmable claim or who have a cop investigation.

[dcorbe]

I may have over stated my point a bit. There's a difference though between blatantly defending and really aiding me right now in my time of need.

From the point of view of the mob right now, the odds are bad with 2, but worse with 1. If I were personally in that position (which I am not) I would come to the defense of another in this particular situation, hope that the serial killer gets a townie, lynch a townie, and nightkilll a townie. Now game balance is in the mob's favor.

[armlx]

No, from the point of view of the mob, the odds are better with 1 player alive then 1 alive who obviously tried to protect the last one lynched.

[vollkan]

I may have over stated my point a bit. There's a difference though between blatantly defending and really aiding me right now in my time of need.

From the point of view of the mob right now, the odds are bad with 2, but worse with 1. If I were personally in that position (which I am not) I would come to the defense of another in this particular situation, hope that the serial killer gets a townie, lynch a townie, and nightkilll a townie. Now game balance is in the mob's favor.

I really REALLY hate the use of "I am not scum because people aren't coming to my defence" as a defence.

Dcorbe, there is a very very good reason for scum to blend in with the town. Ultimately, no single player can hope to derail a wagon without launching a powerful case on another person. That's hard to do. Consequently, rational scum will very often bus their partners no matter what the odds - it avoids being caught defending poorly and, if done properly, will make them seem pro-town.

[iamausername]

If I'm not given sufficient time to arm myself with what little knowledge that I can gain from reading the thread, I can't very well claim something that you can either confirm or refute, now can I?

Wow,

confirm vote: dcorbe

. What knowledge from the thread could you possibly need to arm yourself with unless you're planning to lie about your role?

I really don't understand why anyone is getting on armlx's case for pushing for a claim in this situation.

[LaptopGun]

I am not getting beleagured townie vibes out of dcorbe. His latest one, the no one has defended me at all, sounds more like the serial killer trying to grasp any straw to not get lynched.

For what its worth, my meta read of LML was someone who seemed incredibly scummy when he was town. In my only other game with him: he pushed for two quick lynches, sniped at people, ignored basic reason, and then disappeared for most of the game. He was a vanillia townie. I say this just to illustrate that LML was a "bad" townie before, so using LML's scum behabvior against dcorbe is not exactly a compelling case (at least for me).

The thing is, dcorbe reacted badly to the accusations. Something is up with dcorbe and his predecessors.

[iamausername]

Uh, dcorbe replaced Oman, not LML.

[Shteven]

I'm a little confused why people asked dcorbe if he was the SK. Here's the claim:

If dropping hints isn't enough, I'll just come right out and say it. I'm NOT mafia. I'm a townie. Lynching me isn't going to end the game.

Yeah, he started with "I'm not mafia", but the next line is pretty blunt I'd say. He's claimed townie, he didn't claim "I'm a townie or the SK". Of course, no matter what role he has lynching him isn't going to end the game, so that line was a bit odd. We're not trying to end the game, just find a single scum. We've got 3 left, so night's coming whether you're town or not. A correct (mafia) lynch and two cross kills could technically end it before another day, but that's quite unlikely.

I'm a bit upset with the lack of discussion on other players, but no one seems that interested in talking about armlx or others, so I'll just wait for tommorow, pending my survival.

Unvote. Vote: dcorbe

[dahill1]

I'm a little confused why people asked dcorbe if he was the SK. Here's the claim:

If dropping hints isn't enough, I'll just come right out and say it. I'm NOT mafia. I'm a townie. Lynching me isn't going to end the game.

Yeah, he started with "I'm not mafia", but the next line is pretty blunt I'd say. He's claimed townie, he didn't claim "I'm a townie or the SK". Of course, no matter what role he has lynching him isn't going to end the game, so that line was a bit odd. We're not trying to end the game, just find a single scum. We've got 3 left, so night's coming whether you're town or not. A correct (mafia) lynch and two cross kills could technically end it before another day, but that's quite unlikely.

I'm a bit upset with the lack of discussion on other players, but no one seems that interested in talking about armlx or others, so I'll just wait for tommorow, pending my survival.

Unvote. Vote: dcorbe

well of course dcorbe wouldn't say "i'm townie or SK"! just because someone claims townie doesn't mean they are not the SK.

[Shteven]

That's not quite what I meant, dahill. People acted as if they had only read the first part where he said was not mafia, and was asking him why he left out the possibility of him being the SK. He claimed a specific role, townie. That doesn't mean he isn't lying; he could still be the SK, but he has explicitly claimed he is not, so asking for a clarification of if he's the SK doesn't make much sense.

[LaptopGun]

Thanks for pointing it out iamausername. I completely mixed up who's been replaced and who replaced who.

I stand by what I said about LML. It is of course not applicable to our arguement.

[armlx]

That's not quite what I meant, dahill. People acted as if they had only read the first part where he said was not mafia, and was asking him why he left out the possibility of him being the SK. He claimed a specific role, townie. That doesn't mean he isn't lying; he could still be the SK, but he has explicitly claimed he is not, so asking for a clarification of if he's the SK doesn't make much sense.

It does as the SK has every reason to lie if it could get them out of a loss. However, in his scenario if he is SK he loses regardless as we are still lynching him and his only out is to claim SK and hope we decide to direct his kills and a bunch of mistakes happen on top of that.

[-TinVision-]

Fourth Vote Count of the Day

dcorbe (5) -

iamausername, armlx, The Fonz, dahill1, Shteven

Not voting (5) -

Cipher, LaptopGun, dcorbe, Rigel, vollkan

With 10 alive, it is 6 to lynch.

[Shteven]

So you're basically saying he'll lose if he claims townie, and if he claims SK he'll lose later? Such a tempting offer

[armlx]

It at least gives him half a chance at an out.

[Shteven]

I would expect a claimed SK to be killed immediately tonight by the mafia.

I don't seem them risking a cross kill at this point.

[Shteven]

Sorry about double posting - I'm going to go ahead and

Unvote.

I still am suspicious of dcorbe but he's at L-1 and I don't think the day should end yet; I'd like the day to go a bit longer. It's a small factor, but no one hammering him yet also lends some credibility to his claim.

Unvote.

[Shteven]

Fourth Vote Count of the Day

dcorbe (5) -

iamausername, armlx, The Fonz, dahill1, Shteven

Not voting (5) -

Cipher, LaptopGun, dcorbe, Rigel, vollkan

With 10 alive, it is 6 to lynch.

And now triple posting!

Anyways, this vote count bothers me.

people voting for dcorbe: (in order) suspicious, suspicious, suspicious, suspicious, myself.

People not voting for dcorbe: Claimed cop, claimed investigated innocent, dcorbe himself, claimed investigated innocent, claimed mason.

I am thinking scum might be pushing for the easy lynch here.

[armlx]

Your last 2 posts disagree with each other. 1st you say no one has hammered him is a bad sign, aka the mafia haven't quick lynched him, then you say everyone scummy is voting him aka the mafia are already on pushing the lynch.

You subtle defenses of him are bringing you back into play in my book.

[dahill1]

..and all of the people not voting (besides maybe Rigel

request prod btw

) have been suspicious of dcorbe/Oman, and would have voted if not for it being a lynch if they all did

[armlx]

Concur, Rigel is gone from the site by what I know, just straight up replace him.

[armlx]

You subtle defenses of him are bringing you back into play in my book.

Note: This only really applies if/when he flips mafia, not if he flips SK.

[Cipher]

Actually, the SK would still have a slim chance of victory if he claimed now (see my earlier post). dcorbe should get a chance to claim SK if that's what he is, otherwise I'm thinking this wagon is probably going to end in his lynch. To be clear: the town categorically does not want to lynch the SK today.

I think that the makeup of the wagon may have something to with activity, though that doesn't completely explain it.