Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!

[Cipher]

C'est la vie. Go town!

[vollkan]

Alright, so our situation is now 5:1:1. That's a reasonable position, especially given the level of information we now have.

On another note, I think the events of yesterday thoroughly refute any justification for Lynch-all-Liars. I lied and it scored us a mafia scalp.

[armlx]

On another note, I think the events of yesterday thoroughly refute any justification for Lynch-all-Liars. I lied and it scored us a mafia scalp.

1) I do disagree with LaL in some situations. It is still valid in many.

2) I don't think you really lied yesterday. What you did is A) not really lying on the scale LaL is used and 2) actually a valid point despite the fact you intended it not to be.

But obv you shouldn't be lynched.

[Shteven]

Well, first scum wagon I wasn't on in this game so far. At least not on it in its final state. In any case, I'll try to give armlx more credit today for being second on dcorbe's wagon, and shelve concerns about LML for now.

I'll give a brief rundown on the remaining players - I don't intend to be entirely comprehensive so please add anything interesting I skipped and certainly any disagreements with what's stated.

LaptopGun - confirmed innocent, Cipher is a confirmed cop. Possible SK, not mafia.
vollkan - Claimed mason. Not counterclaimed, provided significant information about what MCD had talked about. Very believable claim.

Note:

I do a lot of checking on player's vote histories. Just because you voted correctly doesn't absolutely clear you, and voting incorrectly doesn't make you absolutely scum. It's merely supporting evidence and I thought it was important to include.

General point: There's likely no more roles in the game. We have the claimed mason out, and since Cipher was killed it's very likely we had one doctor. The remaining players are 4 townies, with a mafia and an SK who would also claim townie. So there's no harm or benefit to claiming townie at this point.

More interesting people:

The Fonz

- Unverified. He's laid low most of the game, posting enough but usually agreeing with established ideas. Look over some of his vote history:

8th on six aces, out of 10.
Zero official votes on day 2 - he voted for Kabenon after the 8th and final vote.
The day 3 spacecase wagon reached 5 votes as of tinvision's 3rd vote count. It remained unchanged on the fourth, fifth, and sixth vote count. On the seventh vote count, The Fonz joined. He does deserve some credit for staying there as other people began to move off the wagon, but it could also suggest he's really trying to keep his voting record to a minimum.
Day four finds The Fonz making the third vote against Oman(dcorbe). He does manage to post his detailed case before Armlx followed up with his, but armlx and username beat him to voting for him.

I feel the Fonz is an excellent candidate for the SK - I mostly let it slide yesterday as Dcorbe had claimed the role. He's been helpful yet unprovocative. Also, the kills we found this morning suggest to me that the SK is a skilled player. The mafia were most likely the ones who offed Cipher, as he's only capable of finding mafia players. The SK knew to eliminate one of the confirmed townies due to the town being the dominant faction today. Whoever the SK is, he clearly knows what's in his best interest. He could also be mafia who knows not to push for lynching his partners but also knows he needs to get on the wagons once they're headed for the gallows anyways.

armlx

- SSF and perfection didn't do anything I can recall and were largely inactive. LML I found suspicious, but he was acting in a very normal way for LML. He's an aggressive player and although we know for certain that Rigel was in fact town, Farside22 (now iamausername) is still an unknown. Although suspicions of farside22 based on protecting Rigel (or was this the other way around?) cannot be valid with Rigel being town. Armlx himself was second to vote for Oman/Dcorbe, and that's earned him at least some points towards not being mafia.

Shteven

- Myself, and I am a townie (see above note). However, for the rest of you, I feel my record is also fairly convincing. I've been on every scum wagon and not on Kabenon's wagon. I did unvote Dcorbe before his lynch, but as I stated it was mostly to try to get more discussion in. I did think he was the SK more than mafia, but I'm glad to have been wrong on that. Sadly no cross kills... Anyways, I was also the first to vote for Spacecase and drove his case day 3. Not likely scum behavior, although it doesn't clear me of SK.

dahill1

- Made some mistakes such as distrusting Cipher's claim as the second cop, due to believing there was only one cop; yet he still didn't vote for him. Later on day 3 he does vote spacecase but eventually switches to Phate, who then claimed doctor, so dahill swithced to Rigel. Tried Rigel again day 4 until Cipher's result cleared him.

He did see through dcorbe's claim and pinned him as mafia.

iamausername

- Farside random voted six aces; probably minor. Distrusted Jesse/Cipher's early claim, but reconsidered and voted for six aces again. First to vote for Oman, and while he hasn't been one of our most verbose posters he's said little I disagree with. Straightforward and a bit more original than The Fonz - I'm reading town.

I feel the fonz has a significant chance of being both mafia or the Serial Killer.

Vote: The Fonz.

[Shteven]

Also, a small response:

And I think it's entirely possible that dcorbe is lying mafia, and I really don't think we should be blindly assuming that the mafia will kill him tonight if he is telling the truth.

I actually had the full possibilities for mafia not killing the SK, but decided that it would be better to leave that out - I was trying to create the impression that it was essential for the mafia to kill the SK. Didn't work, and the SK wasn't who it was claimed to be, but that was my reasoning there.

[armlx]

The only + I see for username is his early on the Oman wagon, which contradicts the Oman + Farside issues I saw earlier.

[Shteven]

Perhaps you could be more specific about what links between farside and Oman you found? The farside link that was most prominent in my mind was LML's claims that Rigel and Farside were defending each other, linking them as scum. Since Rigel turned up town, that became invalid.

[iamausername]

Also, a small response:

And I think it's entirely possible that dcorbe is lying mafia, and I really don't think we should be blindly assuming that the mafia will kill him tonight if he is telling the truth.

I actually had the full possibilities for mafia not killing the SK, but decided that it would be better to leave that out - I was trying to create the impression that it was essential for the mafia to kill the SK. Didn't work, and the SK wasn't who it was claimed to be, but that was my reasoning there.

Ah, sorry for not picking up on that then. I had figured that vollkan was laying down a trap and kept quiet about that, but it didn't occur to me that anyone might go further with it once dcorbe had claimed SK.

This post still covers my thoughts on everyone fairly well, but I'm going to go back and take a close look at everyone's interactions with Oman/dcorbe now that he's confirmed scum.

[LaptopGun]

I am not surprised dcorbe was the right lynch

I like Volkan's lie/play/gambit because I really wanted the SK found out. Besides the obvious clearing of my name, I would have liked the idea of going after the mafia assuming the SK would cooperate.

My list of Probable townies: Volkan, armix, Rigel (these should be obvious)
Neutral: iamausername
Currently neutral but my gut feelings require me to qualify my selection: Shteven
Decent suspects: Fonz, dahill1

iamausername: Seems genuine, but cavalier attitude. Sticks to the facts. I know nothing else unfotunately, the vote record doesn't tell me a whole lot either. The bigest pro town indicator I see is that when he says something, it is almost always important to the situation. In other words, I don't see deception. There's a pro town vibes here, with a few question marks.

Shteven has largely been largely pro town since day 2. However, I can't get over how he readily agreed with my boogey man claims on Justin. I also cant get over that Justin then turned up dead. This is utterly a gut feeling here, and it contradicts how I view the rest of his actions. He was right on my argument on the similarities on the wagon, which is to say there were not really anything like I thought.

Fonz: He doesn't match up to my previous experiences with him. His play is all over the place, as I said before. I'm getting mixed indicators from both his town and mafia play, which makes me think he's the SK

dahil: What haven't I said already? Latest actions on the surface could be seen as pro town- pointing out that (correctly) that dcorbe was a lying mafia. On the other hand, he could have just been bussing a scum partner who he felt was too suspcious to try to save.

[LaptopGun]

ABWOP

When I say "He was right on my argument on the similarities on the wagon," I was talking about the Kab wagon to the dcorbe one. In my last post I saw somethings that looked familiar in and he critqued it that they probably werent.

[iamausername]

My list of Probable townies: Volkan, armix, Rigel (these should be obvious)

Rigel's a definite townie, and also dead. And why is armlx obviously town?

[iamausername]

Right, I've looked through the four possible mafiates' posts individually to look for anything suspicious specifically relating to Oman/dcorbe, and didn't find anything much, so I'm going to fall back on old thoughts and

Vote: dahill

. See the start of D4 for reasoning. And also, process of elimination:

I found armlx (mostly his predecessor LML, really) reasonably suspicious yesterday, but his early and well reasoned Oman vote and persistance on dcorbe look pretty pro-town.
Shteven was a bit wishy-washy on Oman/dcorbe yesterday, but I've read him as pretty solidly pro-town throughout the game.
The Fonz looks way more likely as SK than mafia. I'm less sure about this than I am about dahill, because LTG also looks fairly possible as SK, so he doesn't get my vote today.
Everyone else is cleared of mafia-affiliation, one way or another.

[LaptopGun]

Wow, I'm having a bad week.

As far as armix goes, I dont think the mafia or the sk would really push for the lynch of a suspect like he did. Also a mafia/sk would not have put up with. No disrespect ot you iamausername, but I feel he was the one who really pushed the lynch of dcorbe. He was in early enough where it doesn't look like bussing a partner.

[Shteven]

I'm not sure exactly what Justin interaction you're referring to, LaptopGun.

I was a bit wary of his arguments because he is rather good at putting together convincing cases, but that means you run the risk of writing an incorrect yet convincing case. And while I'm certainly not perfect, in hindsight I was correct and kabenon was a bad lynch.

Having read over day 2 again just now I am slightly more suspicious of farside(username) and melodyman(dahill) but the Fonz remains my choice.

[dahill1]

post coming later

[armlx]

The main connection is Oman pairing Farside with Phate as possible investigations, then auto-retracting after farside responds.

Farside also said 1 day she wanted to vote Spacecase, then 3 days later despite her previous conviction just switched to dahill.

However, in contrast with this is iam's auto vote farside and first vote on Oman. I forgot about the former, so I'm starting to rethink this.

[dahill1]

(posting this in all games)

away til tuesday

[iamausername]

iam's auto vote farside

This is obviously a mistake, but I'm not entirely sure what you actually meant to say.

[vollkan]

As far as armix goes, I dont think the mafia or the sk would really push for the lynch of a suspect like he did. Also a mafia/sk would not have put up with. No disrespect ot you iamausername, but I feel he was the one who really pushed the lynch of dcorbe. He was in early enough where it doesn't look like bussing a partner.

In this game, the SK can safely scum-hunt well, because there are confirmed and semi-confirmed townies whom are much bigger targets for the mafia. Consequently, I think a SK would push a strong lynch of a suspect, if only to free up their NK choice.

As far as armlx being mafia, I certainly haven't ruled it out. I don't think it would help for me to explain why at this particular point in time, but he is not cleared.

[armlx]

iam's auto vote farside

This is obviously a mistake, but I'm not entirely sure what you actually meant to say.

Err, yeah, I mean Oman vote. You had it set up a lot easier to just wagon dahill then to bus oman. You could still be SK, but lynching mafia and SK at this point is basically the same thing.

Unvote

after all that thinking.

I can see a Shteven lynch after how he defended dcorbe noncommittally yesterday, as well as the whole vote/unvote thing, but a dahill one is probably just better and Shteven did bus Spacecase pretty hard if he is scum.

Vote dahill

[LaptopGun]

I am going on vacation. I am going to have very spotty and erratic internet connection over the next week so you may not hear from me.

I'd vote for dahil or Fonz but I dont want to vote then disappear. That could leave the wagon open to be hijacked.

[dahill1]

i have wireless, but still expect limited access until tuesday
as a quick summary, right now i think the mafia is one of iamusername/armlx
and the SK is probably Fonz

[Shteven]

I can't really think of much to add at this point, I've gone over each player. I still think Fonz is the best lynch choice, let me know if you guys agree or disagree.

[armlx]

I still think Fonz has been pro-town this game, even before yesterday. Its possible that I'm not looking at his actions in the right player frame, but I doubt it.

[-TinVision-]

First Vote Count of the Day

dahill1 (2)-

iamausername, armlx

The Fonz (1)-

Shteven

Not voting (4)-

dahill1, LaptopGun, The Fonz, vollkan

Two players are V/LA, but unless general activity increases, a deadline may be imposed.