Mini #597 - Swift speed: Werewolves (Game over)

[Korts]

unvote, vote: No Lynch

It's now a tie between No Lynch, Jenter, and SG. A No Lynch would mean we'd have a chance to pseudo-confirm SG's claim and the town:scum ratio would be somewhat higher compared to a mislynch today.

Vote count

(9 players alive = 5 to lynch before deadline)
(2) Jenter Brolincani – Shy Guy, donkeyz12212
(2) Shy Guy – SleepyPanda, Jenter Brolincani

(2) No lynch – Grimmy, Korts

Not voting:

killa seven, water_foul, Xanatos Roulette

Deadline:

Sunday 25 May 6:00 AM (GMT -5 according to forum clock)

[SleepyPanda]

If this is how it's going to continue to proceed, and Jenter is indeed innocent, this is what will happen:
1) Lynch Jenter, one person NK'ed. 7 remaining.
2) Lynch SG, one person NK'ed. 5 remaining.

SG is scum, left it out first time

3) WE'RE NOW IN LYLO. Who do you vote? Water or donkey?

Also seem to have made a mistake here. At stage 3, we will still have one lynch left. So I guess it won't be as bad. But I would still feel safer if going for SG first.

[SleepyPanda]

unvote, vote: No Lynch

It's now a tie between No Lynch, Jenter, and SG. A No Lynch would mean we'd have a chance to pseudo-confirm SG's claim and the town:scum ratio would be somewhat higher compared to a mislynch today.

Wow, are you going to explain your reason for no lynch? From what I can tell, no lynch is worst than not lynching at all. I'm even more in favor of lynching Jenter than not lynching.

[Korts]

On the other hand... Now that SG has outed the whole masonship, or w/e, I don't know. Possibly the information gained would make even a mislynch worthwhile.

unvote, vote: Shy Guy

This is my last post before deadline. Gotta run.

[Johoohno]

Final vote count Day 3

(9 players alive = 5 to lynch before deadline)

(3) Shy Guy – SleepyPanda, Jenter Brolincani, Korts

(2) Jenter Brolincani – Shy Guy, donkeyz12212

(1) No lynch – Grimmy

Not voting:

killa seven, water_foul, Xanatos Roulette

Deadline:

Sunday 25 May 6:00 AM (GMT -5 according to forum clock)

The village meeting was in turmoil, they couldn’t decide whom to lynch and everyone was putting forth their candidate. Finally, by a hair, they decided to lynch Shy Guy, even though he claimed to be a part of a secret society. No matter how much he cried out his innocence he was not heard. When his body twitched by the snare his hands flung out in something that actually could be taken as a secret greeting.

Lynched: Shy Guy

(Secret society a.k.a. mason)

Terrified the villager hurried home before the sun downed. This night they all barred, locked and bolted their doors. All through the night they heard howling once more, it almost sounded as if the werewolves were laughing at them. When silence, at last, came the morning did too. Yet another one was missing when they all assembled on the village square. Water_foul lay dead in his house. They also saw evidence of him being in the secret society, dressed as he was in a purple robe, similar to one found in Shy Guy’s home.

Eaten: Water_foul

(Secret society a.k.a. mason)

Deadline: Wednesday 28 May 6:00 AM

Approximately

[/size] (GMT -5 according to the clock on the forum)

[Korts]

This is why I thought it better not to lynch SG... His claim would probably be confirmed by the NK. However, I think that with the reaches and the way he pushed SG's wagon after his claim (however badly he claimed) I am fairly convinced that SleepyPanda's scum. I'll do an analysis of him later today.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I thought of that, but scum with any brains would just change the NK and NK someone else, then push the two of them being a scumteam the next day.

I agree a reread of SP is in order, I'll have a look later.

[SleepyPanda]

Alright, first, my apologies to SG.

Seeing as how I was on the completely wrong track, I have to say I'm pretty lost. I suppose all suspicions fall onto me now. I still cannot understand the reason for why Shy Guy played the way he did. His constant changing of his position on who he thought was scummy or town, and naming his mason partner. Was naming his partner the right move? To me, it wasn't, as I can't see the reason for it. I know I have asked him to, but at the time, I strongly believed he was scum. If he was town, there was no reason he should not have revealed. When he did so, it only strengthened my position that he was indeed scum. By revealing his partner, when he indeed was mason, he only dragged his partner down with him.

I suppose all suspicions fall onto me now. I don't know what to say. Were my reasons for voting Shy Guy unfound? In hindsight, yes, but were they not reasonable at least? I did my best to try and find what drove Shy Guy to making his decisions, and to me, they were undeniably scummy as I could not understand his reasons for finding someone scummy, then immediately after, not, or vice versa. SG didn't just do this for one person, he flopped back and forth over Grimmy, Korts, and Phoebus.

Multiple times.

I can defend all my actions, as I felt every point I brought against him to have made sense, and in my mind, he was almost 100% scum.

I will roleclaim now as I cannot see the difference it will make if I don't.

I am a regular Townie

. Obviously, I cannot prove it, but all I've done so far is try to do my part as town.

This is why I thought it better not to lynch SG... His claim would probably be confirmed by the NK. However, I think that with the reaches and the way he pushed SG's wagon after his claim (however badly he claimed) I am fairly convinced that SleepyPanda's scum. I'll do an analysis of him later today.

Unless Jenter did turn up scum, SG would still have been the top suspect. If that's the case, I don't see why SG would be NK'ed.

I did reach in some parts in my case against SG, but I was trying to explain ALL of his actions as I felt he was scum. Some of his actions seemed more scummy than others, and I could have only brought those main points up, but I thought those smaller, more subtle points helped tie everything together. So yes, I did reach, but even you felt I had some strong points to the case as you also voted him.

About his roleclaim and my continuous push to lynch. For the moment, just assume he was scum. What could he have done to save himself? From what I can see, 3 people had already placed their vote on him, and he was 2 away from lynch.

There were no other votes on anyone else.

I felt his claim was nothing more than being backed into a corner and saying what ever he could to buy time.

I thought there was only two werewolves for most of the game, but if there are 3, then mislynching me now would be game over. If you look at the posts just prior to SG's lynch, my conversation with Korts shows that I was mainly thinking of the well-being of town. I was trying to find the best course of action to take. Try and ask me all the questions you have and I will respond as quickly as I can. I also have to start from scratch as I stopped looking at other people when I focused in on SG, so I basically have no idea where to go from here. I will also try to get this done as quick as I can.

[SleepyPanda]

edit: If he was town, there was no reason he should have revealed (in first paragraph)

Also, it seems that the chance of town losing as extremely high, since if there are 3 wolves, ALL town have to make a unanimous decision on lynching correctly to break the tie.

[SleepyPanda]

Alright, so I have read through everyone's post so far, except Korts as he has the most posts and I'm kind of tired at the moment.

I will break this down into groups:

Lurkers- Xanatos, Killa, Grimmy

Xanatos:
post 0, random vote
post 1-3, not much content
post 4, suspicion of Phoebus, says his reasons are the same as others who are voting him. Also suspicion about Jenter, no reasons.
post 5, voices more suspicions on Phoebus, votes Phoebus. Now was this because he was forced to vote? Blonde and I were trying to get him to voice his opinions more and he eventually voted. But did he vote because it was a tie between him, grimmy, and Phoebus at the time?

This is where his posts end. He had no little to no participation in day 1. He didn't say anything about the clammy wagon or anything else. Day 2 and on, after he placed his vote on Phoebus, that was it. Didn't come back to comment on Phoebus' responses, or what happened with SG.

Killa:
post 0, said he doesn't like korts wagon
post 2, suspicion of Phoebus
post 3, prefers clammy wagon over phoebus wagon
post 4, votes phoebus, doesn't give reasons
post 5, said blonde influenced his vote for Phoebus, said he wanted to hammer grimmy

Pretty much the same case with Xanatos. He says he preferred the clammy wagon, but he doesn't even bother to place his vote or anything. Come day 2, he votes Phoebus with no reason and says nothing else for the rest of day 2. Day 3, no participation.


Grimmy:
post 1, FOS blonde, no reason given
post 4, says he forgotten why FOS, votes Phoebus
post 8, votes no lynch

He enters the game as a replacement and places an FOS on Blonde and doesn't give a reason. He says it was a gut feeling, then goes on to saying he doesn't remember, places vote on Phoebus at day 2. In the same post he places his vote, he also says he won't be back until deadline. Day 3, he says he won't be back again, votes no lynch just in case. Now I find this quite suspicious. Day 2 and 3, he conveniently steps out after placing a vote, which allows him to avoid discussion. On day 3, he votes no lynch, but that's no different then being away for the entire day.

I feel a large part of the reason why we're where we are now in this game is because of the lack of contribution. All of them have not been actively playing, and just hover under radar through the days. If these people really ARE town, then they really should have been contributing more. If I had to pick who I felt is most likely scum from these 3, I would have to say Grimmy. He has been placing his votes every day (he was not here day 1), but has he been talking at all, reflecting on what people have said? No. So,

FOS Grimmy

I'll get to donkey and Jenter next.

[SleepyPanda]

edit: on xanatos section, "He had little to no participation in day 1."

donkey:
post 2, voices suspicion on clammy's playstyle
post 5, hammer on clammy
post 7, said his hammer was justified. Everyone agreed that clammy was most suspicious and clammy had a chance to defend himself.
post 8: Find Phoebus to be town, says grimmy was quick to jump on vote, votes grimmy
post 9: says he feels votes were rushed. Also wonders why phoebus did not claim. Feels that sg+water would be town ONLY if grimmy turned up scum.
post 11: suspicion of Jenter
post 12: says that reason SG defending donkey has already been asked and answered.

First, about the hammer on clammy. Here is clammy's last post (assuming he steps out for the rest of the time as he doesn't make another post), and the time donkey drops the hammer:
Game startxxxxxx: May 17, 12:26 am
clammy last postx: May 18, 8:01 pm
Donkey's hammer: May 19, 5:51 am
Deadlinexxxxxxxx: May 20, 11:40 pm
Now, I probably didn't look at this as closely as I should have. This means donkey ended the day a little under 2 days early. I didn't realize the day was ended THIS much sooner. I think from this quote of donkey:

I'm going to end the day early and vote clammy as well.

I misread what he said and understood it as he was ending it ONE DAY early. I also misinterpreted that it was always 3 RL days per phase and the time of the hammer, two days had passed. This is a mistake on my part though, as I didn't look closer. But I really wished someone would've pointed the actually numbers out to me. With this much of a timeframe difference, I can understand where SG was coming from. Also, with the doctor, I felt that SG was a bit quick to decide that donkey was town.

Day 2, after donkey placed his vote on grimmy, he doesn't post until after Phoebus is lynched. When he returns, he expresses that he feels votes were rushed (2nd person to vote grimmy, gone from now until Phoebus lynch). According to your first few initial posts, you expressed the game was really fastpaced, as well as day 1 ending much earlier, wouldn't you expect the same for day 2? Maybe you really didn't have the time to check back? I don't know.

For his post 9, he says that he feels SG and water could be town, IF grimmy turned scum. Since we never lynched grimmy, I don't know how you still could assume they were town.

All in all, I have to say he isn't all that suspicious. Looking closer as the actual time between the hammer and length of the game, I feel more confident he isn't (again, sorry to SG).

I'll stop there actually and do Korts and Jenter later.

[SleepyPanda]

I think I can more easily see Korts and Jenter being the other two wolves, aside from Grimmy, than the two lurkers, as I don't remember them interacting against each other much. I'll have to look at their gameplay carefully later.

[Korts]

If he was town, there was no reason he should not have revealed. When he did so, it only strengthened my position that he was indeed scum.

Freudian slip? A contradiction, that's for sure.

I am a regular Townie.

Predictable claim.

This is why I thought it better not to lynch SG... His claim would probably be confirmed by the NK. However, I think that with the reaches and the way he pushed SG's wagon after his claim (however badly he claimed) I am fairly convinced that SleepyPanda's scum. I'll do an analysis of him later today.

Unless Jenter did turn up scum, SG would still have been the top suspect. If that's the case, I don't see why SG would be NK'ed.

You don't understand. I expected one of the claimed mason pair to get NK'ed, which would have confirmed SG almost a hundred percent. I tried to get a No-Lynch together at the end because that way both SG would have survived to be confirmed and Jenter to defend himself.

By the way, my scumlist today looks like this: 1. SleepyPanda, 2. Jenter, because other than SG and me, you were the only two to log in after SG claimed water_foul as his partner, and since w_f was the NK, one of you most probably sent in the kill. Of course, it may have been a lurker, I'm not dismissing that possibility, but most likely it was either SP or Jenter.

About his roleclaim and my continuous push to lynch. For the moment, just assume he was scum. What could he have done to save himself? From what I can see, 3 people had already placed their vote on him, and he was 2 away from lynch. There were no other votes on anyone else. I felt his claim was nothing more than being backed into a corner and saying what ever he could to buy time.

Yeah, that may have been what you felt. But if a power role is claimed, especially a confirmable role, you don't lynch them.

I thought there was only two werewolves for most of the game, but if there are 3, then mislynching me now would be game over. If you look at the posts just prior to SG's lynch, my conversation with Korts shows that I was mainly thinking of the well-being of town. I was trying to find the best course of action to take. Try and ask me all the questions you have and I will respond as quickly as I can. I also have to start from scratch as I stopped looking at other people when I focused in on SG, so I basically have no idea where to go from here. I will also try to get this done as quick as I can.

This just reeks of scum.

edit: If he was town, there was no reason he should have revealed (in first paragraph)

Yeah, I saw that. Freudian slip, perhaps? (Question is directed at others)

I'll do a proper analysis of you later. However, the Vote of Doom you get now.

Vote: SleepyPanda

Also, town. Careful with bandwagons now. It's four to lynch.

[Xanatos Roulette]

Sorry I'm late guys. last week was pretty busy for me. let me read what I missed and I'll post my thoughts.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Korts, you make a lot of sense. One point I have to add;

- When I am scum and sending in a NK, I always log out and log in on the setting that takes me off the active users list. Assuming I am not the only one to have worked out that this plays havoc with that particular tell, it could have been more people than you think.

vote SleepyPanda

I guess though, Kort's case looks good enough to satisfy me... particulalrly noting that Sleepy decided Korts and I were scum - the only other 2 to have been, as Korts said, known to have been around at the time the NK was probably sent.

[Korts]

- When I am scum and sending in a NK, I always log out and log in on the setting that takes me off the active users list. Assuming I am not the only one to have worked out that this plays havoc with that particular tell, it could have been more people than you think.

There's a setting for that, really? That I didn't know.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Check preferences, it's called 'hide your online status'.

[SleepyPanda]

Freudian slip? A contradiction, that's for sure.

Yeah, because fruedian slips are so dependable. That's why his ideas are so controversial to this day, right? I don't know where you're going with this. It was a simple mistake from editing sentences together. If you bothered to read through my other posts, it's clear that I felt he should not have revealed if he was town. Read back to when he first reveals, I make it pretty clear there was no benefit for him to have done so. If that's what your argument mainly consists of now, that's a very poor reason for your vote.

Yeah, that may have been what you felt. But if a power role is claimed, especially a confirmable role, you don't lynch them.

Tell me how mason is 100% confirmable, without a doubt. If water was actually here and had supported him, would you take his word like that?

You don't understand. I expected one of the claimed mason pair to get NK'ed, which would have confirmed SG almost a hundred percent. I tried to get a No-Lynch together at the end because that way both SG would have survived to be confirmed and Jenter to defend himself.

That is incredibly stupid. Why would scum bother to NK one of them when all the suspicious is on them in the first place? This was the plan you wanted to try? What if scum didn't NK either of them? It all falls apart, am I correct?

Careful with bandwagons now. It's four to lynch.

Why will you even bother saying this then go on to vote me without completely analyzing? If in fact I am not scum, and you are not either, then scum have already won if they all add their votes on.

And seeing as how you two are the first to vote me so quickly without even waiting for the opinions of the rest of town, this strikes me as highly suspicious. You both are acting as if my case against SG was completely unreasonable, when BOTH of you are the ones that voted with me. Are you both saying you just decided to hop on my vote and bandwagon SG?

Once again, I'd like to say DO NOT VOTE YET. If I am not scum, then just ONE townie vote on me will let scum win.

FOS first

. Let everyone reply. We are at this stage because of all the people who are lurking.

[SleepyPanda]

you were the only two to log in after SG claimed water_foul as his partner, and since w_f was the NK, one of you most probably sent in the kill. Of course, it may have been a lurker, I'm not dismissing that possibility, but most likely it was either SP or Jenter.

That's quite easy to say without having actual proof to back it up. And since you were on at the same time, you must be considered too, yeah?

[Korts]

That is incredibly stupid. Why would scum bother to NK one of them when all the suspicious is on them in the first place? This was the plan you wanted to try? What if scum didn't NK either of them? It all falls apart, am I correct?

Tell me, was a mason NK'ed? Yer. So? Doesn't look like having fallen apart from where I'm standing.

Tell me how mason is 100% confirmable, without a doubt. If water was actually here and had supported him, would you take his word like that?

Not 100% without a doubt, but taken the gamestate, it wouldn't hurt town to believe him as long as the claim matched history.

As for the vote, you're right, of course. Damn, I'm supposed to be the one who's right.

unvote

For now, I'd like to ask Jenter to unvote, too.

[Korts]

you were the only two to log in after SG claimed water_foul as his partner, and since w_f was the NK, one of you most probably sent in the kill. Of course, it may have been a lurker, I'm not dismissing that possibility, but most likely it was either SP or Jenter.

That's quite easy to say without having actual proof to back it up. And since you were on at the same time, you must be considered too, yeah?

You mean I should suspect myself, because I may secretly be scum without me knowing? Gosh, you convinced me.

FoS: Korts

[Korts]

you were the only two to log in after SG claimed water_foul as his partner, and since w_f was the NK, one of you most probably sent in the kill. Of course, it may have been a lurker, I'm not dismissing that possibility, but most likely it was either SP or Jenter.

That's quite easy to say without having actual proof to back it up. And since you were on at the same time, you must be considered too, yeah?

Oh yeah, I see where you're confused. When I said "log in" I actually meant post in-thread.

[SleepyPanda]

Tell me, was a mason NK'ed? Yer. So? Doesn't look like having fallen apart from where I'm standing.

You wanted to lynch Jenter, or for god knows why, no lynch. If either of those occurred, what logical reason would scum have to kill SG or water?

Say Jenter was lynched. Then you're saying scum would kill SG or water? Then we would KNOW FOR A FACT, that he was mason and was telling the truth. Then we'd have a completely safe, innocent townie left. That makes a lot of sense.

[SleepyPanda]

You mean I should suspect myself, because I may secretly be scum without me knowing? Gosh, you convinced me. FoS: Korts

That was to point out to everyone else BESIDES you. No one else knows your alignment. Why should you be able to point fingers without doubt coming upon yourself?

[SleepyPanda]

Werewolves Connections: Grimmy, Korts, Jenter

Korts' connection to:
Jenter- On day 3, SG said he will do an analysis on 3 people; Jenter, Xanatos and Killa. But the post immediately after, Korts chimes in and he says he'll do the analysis on Jenter himself. Why? And what a great analysis it was too. When Jenter addresses them, Korts even AGREES that all the points he brought up were weak (post 67). When I built up my case on SG, Korts agreed pretty quick. You completely dropped your case on Jenter and favored mine. Then, hours before the deadline, you decide to take your vote off SG to "try something".

You wanted to lynch Jenter, or for god knows why, no lynch. If either of those occurred, what logical reason would scum have to kill SG or water?

Say Jenter was lynched. Then you're saying scum would kill SG or water? Then we would KNOW FOR A FACT, that he was mason and was telling the truth. Then we'd have a completely safe, innocent townie left. That makes a lot of sense.

What GOOD reason did you have for doing that? I don't think you ever seriously considered taking your vote off SG. You only wanted to seem like you did. After you finally settle back on SG, you said you won't be back before deadline. However, immediately after deadline, you were so quick to post a reply. Guess you didn't have anywhere to go, just wanted to let time take its course.

Grimmy- During day 2, he decides to hop on the Grimmy wagon against Phoebus' wagon. However, he later takes off his vote on Grimmy, and places it on Phoebus. What reason does he gives for leaving and voting Phoebus? Nothing. He says he can't decide whether or not to stay on, and since Grimmy was a replacement, he'll take his vote off. When SG calls Grimmy a follower, Korts responds and defends him:

Nonono. Two things. 1) we still don't need followers. People should make up their own minds regardless. 2) my vote on grimmy isn't because he's a follower. It's because he didn't show any sign of agreeing with the reasons against Phoebus, he says only that there are reasons (he doesn't even comment on whether they're good or bad reasons) that other players brought up. I hope you're seeing where I'm coming from.

To me, that sounds like you're trying to convince SG that Grimmy isn't scum.

Jenter's connection to:
Grimmy- completely ignore Grimmy altogether. No suspicions, not even the mention of his name in any of his posts. Nothing. He's completely avoiding him. He touches on almost every other player that I can see, besides Grimmy and Xanatos.
Korts- During day 1, when he found clammy to be suspicious, he makes a note that clammy was buddying up to Korts. He never actually does suspect Korts though. They have their little tiffs, but it doesn't lead to anything serious. Even with the analysis Korts has done of him, he responds to every point easily, then dismisses it.

Grimmy: There's not much to say for Grimmy's interaction with Korts or Jenter. He doesn't mention Jenter at all, but then again, what has he really done? Place his vote then do nothing for the rest of the day. With Korts, he talks to him about more off topic subjects than the game at hand. This would be easy if they don't find each other a threat.

Both Jenter and Korts have been on every lynch wagon; clammy's, Phoebus', and SG's. However so have I. But the thing that differs between me and them is that I lead the SG wagon. Every wagon they have been on, they have hopped onto. They have never led any strong case against anyone. Maybe I'm reaching, I don't know.