Dynamite Stick Mafia! GAME OVER

[skitzer]

Here is my analysis of Surye:

Post 38: His first post. Strikes a light, but comments that we don’t need anymore rash actions. Also says we need to stay organized, but yet he struck a light. No interactions with anyone yet.

Post 48: Discusses how unfortunate it is that you can’t put out your light. Interactions: says that the fact you can’t put out your light is a good point from LoudMouthLee and kuribo.

Post 75: Says he thought it was okay to strike a light because everyone else did, as a comment to LML. Says he will dynamite someone because scum aren’t likely to attack him (well duh) Interactions: above with LML.

Post 82: Lists a long line of “suspects” based on Adel’s reasoning that whoever is lit was most likely scum.Interactions: disagrees with Adel, says that Nightson is most likely scum.

Post 123: Says that he likes Adel’s plan, but augments it so that scum couldn’t slip through it, so that he could look protown. Interaction: Agreeing with Adel.

Post 200: Notes that Adel is town because of her light-striking manner. Also states that his suspicions are Skruffs, Yos and CES. Interactions: agrees with Adel. Suspicions on Skruffs, Yosarian2 and Cogito Ergo Scum.

Post 221: Quotes elmo’s “STOP STRIKING A LIGHT YOU MORONS” and says this is the game winning post. Interactions: Clearly stated, but note: Surye turned up scum.

Post 252: This is his infamous (at least to me) “scares me” post. The second paragraph doesn’t make sense to me. Interactions: Scared by CES, confused by the NK of Skruffs.

Post 262: Agrees with other that all Skizter (me) has done was lied, mislead, and lurked, then votes for me. Interactions: Suspicious of Skitzer (me)

Post 269: Wonders why pickemgenius finds him scummy. Doesn’t understand why his second-to-last post is scummy? Interactions: wondering about pickemgenius.

Post 273: Says my interpretation of his post doesn’t make sense. Note: he seems to be posting more frequently now that he’s been suspected. Interactions: Doesn’t understand skitzer (me).

Post 278: seems to have forgotten about peg asking about his post.

Post 307: wonders about Skitzer (me) disregarding the policy. Interaction: Finds Skitzer (me) and CES “interesting”

Post 310: says hes scared of two towns acting rash and killing each other, which is not what he said before.

Post 312: says he will comply, but doesn’t want to have a fourth rash death.

Post 352: wonders why pickemgenius keeps wanting to blow up surye.

Post 354: says quagmire’s post was useless because he was asking a null question.

Post 357: says he isn’t deflecting attention, and that he has defended everything so far.

Post 359: promises an analysis of skitzer (me).

Post 363: says he wants to blow up skitzer (me) in response to peg’s question.

Post 394: strikes a light, says he will take out yosarian2 or skitzer (me). Promises analysis again.

Post 397: says he doesn’t understand case on sarcastro. Interaction: clearly stated.

Post 403: blames kuribo of wanting a no-lynch just because he doesn’t have a clear opinion of scum.

Post 405: asks erg0 who he is talking about in his post.

Post 408: still says that kuribo is suggesting a no-lynch and that yos is the one panicking.

Post 411: something about a post being deleted due to his browser. No relevance

Post 422: finally explains his reasoning for kuribo’s no-lynch.

Post 452: says he didn’t have a chance to blow anyone up, and therefore he is not obv scum.

Post 454: EBWOP for surye: did to deed

Post 463: says that lurkers are most dangerous people. Also makes a funny – “keep your dynamite in your pants”

Post 468: asks kuribo to come up with a real argument of his own.. Also asks to “stick to the plan”.

Post 469: calls yosarian2 a parrot.

Post 472: strikes a light, says he will blow someone up.

Post 473: asks kuribo to strike a light too.

Post 475: says that kuribo does not understand the math of it, and that he is just rying to make appoint.

Post 476: states that nothing has been “laid out”, and that kuribo is now first on his list to go.

Post 487: votes kuribo, saying he is the only one who has did something scummy.

Post 488: gives a long list of what kuribo is trying to accomplish with premises, stating that premise 2 is false (actually, premise 1, “I am town”, was the one that was false.)

Post 490: states that he did not OMGUS.

Post 495: says he’d blow up the person with the most votes, insisting he still believes in the system.

Post 504: says that kuribo’s play is different from yesterday in the fact that he is much more scummy.

Post 514: says kuribo is a parrot and that he votes him without reason.

Post 522: says that skitzer needs to state his case in a logical way.

Post 524: says my post makes no sense again.

will finish later/tomorrow...but I have an assumption...

[skitzer]

Continuing…

Post 527: sarcastically mentions about Quagmire being protown, then wonders why he is fearing Elmo and Flameaxe when the seem to have done nothing wrong.

Post 529: wonders why Quagmire wants him to end the day so soon..

Post 531: disagrees with Quagmire again. Note: it seems as though he is trying to prolong his time in the game.

Post 570: ugh, long quotey post, but I’m going to sum it up as just a reexplanation of his actions so far.

Post 571: another quotey post, basically all stuff against kuribo…

In conclusion, this read-through helped me find someone who was definitely scummy: Elmo. He never was suspicious of surye. Add this to my analysis of Post 221, and you’ve got

Vote: Elmo

[PokerFace]

Odd, thats not the assumption I was expecting. The posts where the two of them interact according to your analysis are 221 and 527. I'm going to have to look back at those posts to see what you mean.

Oddly enough it seems the player list now only has three people if you catch my drift. More posting would be apreciated by all. Since Skitzer went through all of Surye's posts I am wondering what his take on those posts I mentioned is. Do you see it as distancing or do you believe CEScum's deduction is more rational?

2) Those comments are definitely

not

distancing, but they're comments from a scum trying to cast doubt on someone's townness.

ATM I suppose it is another possibility, but it doesn't explain everything.

_________________

The main/primary reason I am voting you is really because of this:

Hmm.. Strange nightkill choice again.

I suppose the only thing particular about Nightson's posts is that he suspected Surye, but that's probably a distraction from the fact that the first nightkill is incriminating Yos2.

You also too used WIFOM around a night kill. And this WIFOM tell kinda defends Surye while atacking Yosarian2.

I'll explain it further now.

1) Scum control who dies at night. Because they control the result it is usually not a good idea to analyze the death for you can run into WIFOM.

2) As you analyze the previous deaths you say that the last night kill implicates Surye. You then undermine your own logic by saying that is probably a distraction.

From this I get the impression that you are trying to setup a pre-emptive defense against attack for Surye. No player had yet looked at the night kill so I can see this action as a possible pre-emptive defence for a paranoid scumbuddy.

3) You said it was probably a distraction from the fact that the first night kill incriminates Yosarian.

So its okay to look at one night kill and not the other? Parts of your logic undermines itself and the basis of your logic is wifom that I can see as a pre-emptive defence for Surye as well as an attack of Yosarian. Someone people were viewing as scummy.

_________________

Now you kinda avoided this question earlier.

Excuse me, but when you voted Yosarian at the begining of the day when he had not yet struck a light. The point I am driving at is that you voted Yosarian over Surye. You are suppose to voted for the scumiest.

At the start of day 5

did you actually think Yosarian was scummier than a guy that did not go off like Surye did?

1) I thought Yos was town because of the way he behaved after Quag struck a light, so, yes, I suspected him before that moment.

I am asking if you actually found Yosarian scummier than Surye back then. Yes or No? And Why?

[PokerFace]

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Vote Count info of Day 6:

Cogito Ergo Scum - 1(PokerFace)
PokerFace - 1(Cogito Ergo Scum)
Elmo - 1(Skitzer)

Not Voting - (Elmo, Elvis, Erg0, FlameAxe, Marmalade, NabNab, Yosarian2)

10 people alive so it should be 6 votes needed
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[Yosarian2]

Hmmm...

Looking at the end of the day yesterday, I don't really like NN's behavior. It kind of feels like he's looking for some alternative to the Suyve bandwagon; first he goes after me, then just about the time when it becomes obveous I'm completly willing to blow him up he backs down and goes after kuribo.

vote:NabakovNabakov

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

The main/primary reason I am voting you is really because of this:

Hmm.. Strange nightkill choice again.

Yes, I realise this is a point against me, and I realise I screwed up when I said that. I just think that, in order to effectively hunt scum, you shouldn't be easily distracted by other players when you're looking for a single one. I didn't want any distraction from Yos at the time, who was my main suspect.

At the start of day 5

did you actually think Yosarian was scummier than a guy that did not go off like Surye did?

Yeah, I guess so. Surely, Surye was one of my top suspects at the time, too, but I was still going after Yos.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Hmmm...

Looking at the end of the day yesterday, I don't really like NN's behavior. It kind of feels like he's looking for some alternative to the Suyve bandwagon; first he goes after me, then just about the time when it becomes obveous I'm completly willing to blow him up he backs down and goes after kuribo.

vote:NabakovNabakov

Yes, I noticed this too, but I think it's not very productive to go after the enforcer.

What do you think of Elmo/PokerFace/me?

[elvis_knits]

In conclusion, this read-through helped me find someone who was definitely scummy: Elmo. He never was suspicious of surye. Add this to my analysis of Post 221, and you’ve got

Vote: Elmo

I don't understand your analysis of 221. I understand why not being suspicious of surye is scummy, but not what was horrible about 221. I looked at it myself.

[skitzer]

In 221, I see some correlation between elmo's quote, and surye's post. Because if townies stopped striking lights, the scum would win because there would be no day kills.

527 isn't really an assumption. Except for the fact that Quagmire feared Elmo and Flameaxe, and now Quagmire is dead...

[skitzer]

EBWOP: It may be more informative to do a readthrough of Elmo. I'll do that next.

[Elmo]

Because if townies stopped striking lights, the scum would win because there would be no day kills.

I'm an evil genius.

[Yosarian2]

Yes, I noticed this too, but I think it's not very productive to go after the enforcer.

Hmm. Interesting. I guess how he goes about doing his enforcer duties today is likely to give us information about his alignment, assuming he survives, but I'm not sure that's enough reason to let him totally off the hook for today.

What do you think of Elmo/PokerFace/me?

PokerFace: He's seemed helpful and observent for much of the game. Yesterday, I was getting kind of a wierd vibe from him, but I don't know if I can really put my finger on it. I'm not sure I really see your case against him; could you explain?

You: Mixed feelings. I had some bad vibes from you earlier in the game. As for your actions yesterday...I can understand the justification you gave, but why didn't you explain them then, then that you wanted me to blow up Suyve because you thought I was town and he was scum, or whatever?

Elmo: I'll have to re-read him now to answer you on that one.

[Yosarian2]

Uh...mod, could you please remove that last set of quote tags? That's not supposed to be there; those last three comments, about pokerface, CES, and Elmo, are mine, not a quote.

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm. Elmo hasn't really done all that much this game, has he? He voted Marmalade, then later couldn't remember why; he agreed with Adel and my stratagy advice in general terms. The timing for his sarc vote looks bad. Said he didn't think Surye was scum, never explained why.

Elmo: Could you explain why you thought Surye was pro-town?

[elvis_knits]

In 221, I see some correlation between elmo's quote, and surye's post. Because if townies stopped striking lights, the scum would win because there would be no day kills.

You're really misreading Elmo if you think he wanted people to NEVER strike lights, and let there be no daykills.

[skitzer]

I'm not saying elmo is scummy on that fact alone. I'm saying that Surye mentioned "game winning post" after that, and surye was scum.

[elvis_knits]

But do you think Elmo really wanted the town to never strike a light -- in effect suggesting we no-lynch every day?

[skitzer]

No.

[elvis_knits]

So what is your problem with 221?

[skitzer]

sigh...

Surye was scum.

Elmo said "STOP STRIKING A LIGHT YOU MORONS"

Surye later quoted this post and said "game winning post."

Am I the only one that sees this as a boastful remark between two scum?

[NabakovNabakov]

sigh...

Surye was scum.

Elmo said "STOP STRIKING A LIGHT YOU MORONS"

Surye later quoted this post and said "game winning post."

Am I the only one that sees this as a boastful remark between two scum?

It would take some cocky scum to do that. Surye is bumbling, but he's not cocky.

I acknowledge Yos' suspicion of me; it's understandable. Hopefully it will be allayed if/when I enforce.

WIFOM is a bad argument. Period. It was stupid for CES to use it yesterday, but it's no less stupid for Pokerface to build a case around it today.

Vote: Maramalade

Useless lurker much?

[Erg0]

Re-reading Surye in isolation:
- Skitzer and NabNab look pretty town to me right now.
- I think it's likely that one of CES and Yos2 is Surye's buddy, as he keeps mentioning them in the same sentence throughout the game.
- I'm curious as to why Surye dragged Yos' name back into contention when it looked like people were trying to force him to blow up on day 4. He said in his post 19 that skitzer was his number 1 choice, then brought Yos back into things in the next post.
- I find it interesting that he tried to push the lurkers as the biggest threat at the start of day 5. This probably indicates that at least one of the active players is scum.

Not sure about this Elmo thing, it seems pretty circumstantial. More reading is required on my part.

[PokerFace]

Hmmm...

Looking at the end of the day yesterday, I don't really like NN's behavior. It kind of feels like he's looking for some alternative to the Suyve bandwagon; first he goes after me, then just about the time when it becomes obveous I'm completly willing to blow him up he backs down and goes after kuribo.

vote:NabakovNabakov

Yes, I noticed this too, but I think it's not very productive to go after the enforcer.

Hmm. Interesting. I guess how he goes about doing his enforcer duties today is likely to give us information about his alignment, assuming he survives, but I'm not sure that's enough reason to let him totally off the hook for today.

From these two posts from quagmire:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 47#1045647
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 48#1045648
I kinda got the impression Quagmire made NabNab the enforcer over Kuribo because he was begining to suspect NabNab some. If NabNab is really scum, his actions around enforcing should indeed tell us. As it stands I don't really see a problem with people voting the enforcers as long as the suspicions are waranted. Should an enforcer be voted to light we will just need some people to volunteer to be the next enforcers or something like that.

_________________

sigh...

Surye was scum.

Elmo said "STOP STRIKING A LIGHT YOU MORONS"

Surye later quoted this post and said "game winning post."

Am I the only one that sees this as a boastful remark between two scum?

I looked back at those posts and I kinda think you are, Skitzer. I suppose what Surye said could have been boasting, but considering Elmo said "Stop striking lights" around the time UA and Adel blew up, I don't see Elmo's statement as boasting. I also don't think Quagmire was scared of Elmo and Flameaxe.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 44#1048744
Some things in those quotes I think were getting taken out of context. The only significant conection between Surye and Elmo I saw is the one yosarian mentioned here:

Hmmm. Elmo hasn't really done all that much this game, has he? He voted Marmalade, then later couldn't remember why; he agreed with Adel and my stratagy advice in general terms. The timing for his sarc vote looks bad. Said he didn't think Surye was scum, never explained why.

Elmo: Could you explain why you thought Surye was pro-town?

I'd like Elmo's answer to that question.

[PokerFace]

Something else, NabNab why marmalade?

Do you have more reason because he not the only lurker. Also I recently got bored and read newbie games 564 and 578. Those games are now completed and marmalade was lurking heavy throughout both of them. Just thought I'd bring that up. He was scum in one of those newbie games and town in the other so how much he lurks didn't seem to be a definitive factor between those two games. Marmalade has not posted on the site since the 17th of May. I kinda wish I had noticed that aspect before Stoofer took his leave because we will probably be needing a replacement for him.

Also I posted this during the last day and Yosarian never comented on it.

@Yosarian,

I have noticed stretches of time in which marmalade has had little posting. He did not post over a course of 8 days between Apr 18th and the 26th and then 10 more days between Apr 28th and May 8th. He has not really contributed much in this game and he did not vote yesterday and should have provided more content as deadline loomed. I have mentioned him to be somewhat lurking. Do you believe he is lurking? I think NabNab more so voted him for what he believes is a contradiction.

Yosarian2

you have mentioned the need for pressure on lurkers throughout this game. You often said Flameaxe and Elmo needed to post more but you never said anything about marmalade even when I made that coment yesterday. I would say Marmalade was lurking just as much especially since he has not been voting. Anything you want to say, Yosarian2?

[PokerFace]

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Vote Count info of Day 6:

Cogito Ergo Scum - 1(PokerFace)
PokerFace - 1(Cogito Ergo Scum)
Marmalade - 1(NabNab)
NabNab - 1(Yosarian2)
Elmo - 1(Skitzer)

Not Voting - (Elmo, Elvis, Erg0, FlameAxe, Marmalade)

10 people alive so it should be 6 votes needed
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*If I missed anything please correct me.*