Open 60: The New C9 - Game over!


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Post Post #1050 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 10:49 am

Post by dahill1 »

ok right now, i agree with The Fonz=most likely SK
at first, that leaves the remaining mafia candidates as Shteven, username, and armlx
Shteven's recent actions have led me to believe he is more likely to be protown. however, of course i am not clearing him entirely but he probably won't receive my vote today.
that leaves username and armlx, and i am inclined to think that armlx is the remaining mafia.
iamusername first accused me when he replaced in, and the accusations seemed truly sincere. armlx seemed to jump on the wagon to me, and he could be looking for an easy lynch
however, fonz has a bigger wagon right now, and i don't want to throw any more wagons in at the moment, so
vote The Fonz
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Post Post #1051 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 10:50 am

Post by vollkan »

Shteven wrote: I can't really think of much to add at this point, I've gone over each player. I still think Fonz is the best lynch choice, let me know if you guys agree or disagree.
Given the arguments you make, and MCD's suspicion of Fonz, I am inclined to agree with you here. I'll reread Fonz myself to be sure, but the evidence for SK-Fonz is certainly there.
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Post Post #1052 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 11:55 am

Post by iamausername »

dahill1 wrote:however, fonz has a bigger wagon right now, and i don't want to throw any more wagons in at the moment, so
vote The Fonz
Know who had an even bigger wagon than The Fonz?
dahill
. :wink:

Seriously though, Fonz is the best lynch for today if the rest of you aren't going to go for dahill. Not like it makes a difference which scum we hit today.
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Post Post #1053 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 12:13 pm

Post by dahill1 »

iamausername wrote:
dahill1 wrote:however, fonz has a bigger wagon right now, and i don't want to throw any more wagons in at the moment, so
vote The Fonz
Know who had an even bigger wagon than The Fonz?
dahill
. :wink:

Seriously though, Fonz is the best lynch for today if the rest of you aren't going to go for dahill. Not like it makes a difference which scum we hit today.
hehe good point, but you should all seriously consider the numbers tomorrow if we lynch the SK today..
SK lynch=5-1
Mafia Kill Tonight=4-1
Mislynch Next Day (presuming you lynch me)=3-1
Mafia Kill Next Night=2-1, and that leaves an ugly endgame situation
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Post Post #1054 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 12:23 pm

Post by iamausername »

If we lynch either scum today and town tomorrow, we'll end up in that situation whoever the particular players concerned are. What's your point?
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Post Post #1055 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 12:25 pm

Post by dahill1 »

iamausername wrote:If we lynch either scum today and town tomorrow, we'll end up in that situation whoever the particular players concerned are. What's your point?
just sayin that i'm town, and that we should lynch scum tomorrow
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Post Post #1056 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 7:52 pm

Post by vollkan »

It's very interesting that dahill assumes that Fonz is the SK...
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Post Post #1057 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 7:55 pm

Post by armlx »

Theres a lot of interesting things about dahill's posts, like trying to focus on the SK like there's a difference.
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Post Post #1058 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 8:15 pm

Post by vollkan »

Duh! If we go after mafia, then dahill dies.

Amirite dahill? :wink:
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Post Post #1059 (ISO) » Mon May 26, 2008 8:21 pm

Post by armlx »

vollkan wrote:Duh! If we go after mafia, then dahill dies.

Amirite dahill? :wink:
I believe we call this a zing.



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Post Post #1060 (ISO) » Tue May 27, 2008 8:51 am

Post by The Fonz »

Shteven wrote:
The Fonz wrote:It seems to me vollkan and armlx have done just fine at stringing you up by your own petard, scum.
And who benefits the most by killing the SK? The mafia. You have also completely ignored dcorbe's valid point of your own inactivity.
You haven't posted for days, yet manage to post 30 minutes after being accused of it?
Here we see the traditional bullshit 'hasn't posted in a while' line. Yes, Shteven, it's TOTALLY scummy of me to post in this game five minutes after I post in another game in New York, during a period of around two hours during which I caught up with about six different games, all of which I'd been neglecting for several days due to RL reasons.

Also, note that at this point in the game, town absolutely has every reason to want to lynch the claimed SK. For starters, lynching the SK in that situation would have been HUGELY beneficial to town. Plus, y'know, the fact that people claiming SK are ALMOST ALWAYS LYING. 90% of SK claims are made by mafia in my experience. That you think an SK claim should make people reconsider... words honestly fail me.

Shteven wrote:
More interesting people:

The Fonz
- Unverified. He's laid low most of the game, posting enough but usually agreeing with established ideas. Look over some of his vote history:
Erm...hang on?
8th on six aces, out of 10.
Means nothing. I voted 6A with my first post after the JG claim. Voting players with claimed guilties on them really is a matter of opportunity rather than position. Are you honestly claiming it matters how early or late you vote in that scenario? Are people who quickly vote in response to a claimed guilty more likely town?
Zero official votes on day 2 - he voted for Kabenon after the 8th and final vote.
True. Though I think, y'know, my posts make clear my thinking on that day. I didn't particularly like the Kab wagon, but was unable to find a better one.
The day 3 spacecase wagon reached 5 votes as of tinvision's 3rd vote count. It remained unchanged on the fourth, fifth, and sixth vote count. On the seventh vote count, The Fonz joined. He does deserve some credit for staying there as other people began to move off the wagon, but it could also suggest he's really trying to keep his voting record to a minimum.
Keeping his vote record to a minimum? What does that even mean? And how would an anti-town player benefit from it? You're attacking me for
not
votehopping? I'll give you one thing, at least it's original.

Day four finds The Fonz making the third vote against Oman(dcorbe). He does manage to post his detailed case before Armlx followed up with his, but armlx and username beat him to voting for him.
Again, 'beat' me to voting him? Is your scumhunting (or imitation thereof) based around some kind of race to see who can vote the scum first? You may note, if I do say so myself, that my vote and case on Oman was a rather pivotal one. Firstly, the vote count was two on Oman and one on dahill (I think) at the time. And dahill was clearly scummy enough to be a viable counterwagon. After I vote, the Oman wagon starts running away, with every man and his dog piling on, using mostly my reasoning as well.
I feel the Fonz is an excellent candidate for the SK - I mostly let it slide yesterday as Dcorbe had claimed the role. He's been helpful yet unprovocative.
Again, what does helpful but unprovocative mean? I've pushed a couple of wagons pretty darn hard. I've also pointed out scummy behaviour everywhere I've seen it,

I mean, I haven't gone apeshit at anyone as of yet. But then, I've not been attacked on bullshit reasons very much, until...well... now.

Also, the kills we found this morning suggest to me that the SK is a skilled player. The mafia were most likely the ones who offed Cipher, as he's only capable of finding mafia players. The SK knew to eliminate one of the confirmed townies due to the town being the dominant faction today. Whoever the SK is, he clearly knows what's in his best interest.
Several problems here.

Numero uno, you were able to conceive of this being the optimal strategy for the SK, so at the very least, it points to you as much as to anyone else.

Secondly, forgive me, but isn't offing confirmed players an incredibly obvious strategy?

[What I would note here is that this does make the SK more likely to be amongst the unconfirmed- it strikes me that a 'confirmed' SK would want to keep plenty of investigated innocents around, in order to provide the mafia with alternative NK targets).
He could also be mafia who knows not to push for lynching his partners but also knows he needs to get on the wagons once they're headed for the gallows anyways.
Except, you know, that this doesn't fit the facts, at all. As I said, Oman's lynch was nowhere near inevitable at the point I made my case, and I see myself as one of the prime pushers of his lynch- and I continued pushing the spacecase wagon after numerous others had jumped off it, and there were multiple other possible wagons (which, indeed, would have exceeded Spacecase's in size had I switched to them).
LaptopGun wrote:
Fonz: He doesn't match up to my previous experiences with him. His play is all over the place, as I said before. I'm getting mixed indicators from both his town and mafia play, which makes me think he's the SK
I believe you've played with me once, in a newbie game, over six months ago? What previous experience
s
? I've played differently to that, sure, but that's because I haven't gotten in a massively heated argument day one.
dahill1 wrote: and the SK is probably Fonz
Echo cho cho cho....
dahill1 wrote: however, fonz has a bigger wagon right now, and i don't want to throw any more wagons in at the moment, so
vote The Fonz
No really. How is anyone not voting for dahill after this post? 'I'm voting Fonz because he has the biggest wagon?' Can anyone think of a protown reason for 'not wanting to throw in any more wagons?'

I can't.

Vote: dahill

vollkan wrote: Given the arguments you make, and MCD's suspicion of Fonz, I am inclined to agree with you here. I'll reread Fonz myself to be sure, but the evidence for SK-Fonz is certainly there.
Well, I happen to think that Shteven's arguments are horrible. I'd appreciate a comment on my rebuttal. Also, note that MCD showed more suspicious of farside and dahill than me (the only thing that could be construed as suspicion of me is asking me about the Kab post-hammer vote. Not sure that this can be seen as scummy, I mean, what's the argument? Fonz as scum wanted to make sure he was seen on a town wagon?)
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Post Post #1061 (ISO) » Tue May 27, 2008 8:55 am

Post by armlx »

Claim and/or die time dahill.
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Post Post #1062 (ISO) » Tue May 27, 2008 10:04 am

Post by -TinVision- »

Second Vote Count of the Day


dahill1 (3)-
iamausername, armlx, The Fonz
The Fonz (2)-
Shteven, dahill1

Not voting (2)-
LaptopGun, vollkan
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Post Post #1063 (ISO) » Tue May 27, 2008 11:23 am

Post by dahill1 »

i claim townie, and i don't see how my posts are focusing in on just SK..
i specifically list my suspects for the mafia as well. i assumed Fonz is the SK with that analysis, because well...i think he is!
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Post Post #1064 (ISO) » Tue May 27, 2008 11:26 am

Post by dahill1 »

Fonz, i'm not voting you
because
you have a bigger wagon, but it is between either you or armlx right now, for me. and armlx currently has no votes, so i voted for you because you did have more votes
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Post Post #1065 (ISO) » Tue May 27, 2008 7:16 pm

Post by Shteven »

For the record, I'm not opposed to a dahill1 wagon, but as I'm more personally responsible for the Fonz's, I figured I'd reply to his comments.
The Fonz wrote:Here we see the traditional bullshit 'hasn't posted in a while' line. Yes, Shteven, it's TOTALLY scummy of me to post in this game five minutes after I post in another game in New York, during a period of around two hours during which I caught up with about six different games, all of which I'd been neglecting for several days due to RL reasons.
Yes, the timing was a bit funny, but the larger problem was not posting for eight days. Lurking is a (sadly) valid scum strategy. Those who aren't here as much don't get quite as much attention. To counteract this players will intentionally hunt after lurkers, to try to balance it out. It needs countering, though. If no one mentions it then it will provide an advantage to anyone who needs to survive. Eight days is a fairly long time.
The Fonz wrote: 90% of SK claims are made by mafia in my experience. That you think an SK claim should make people reconsider... words honestly fail me.
I'll keep this in mind - I haven't seen many (any?) SK claims in the past. I didn't mean that they should reconsider as in unvote, but I was hoping for a slightly longer discussion before he was lynched. It should be noted that I unvoted before his claim - I wanted to ease off pressure because armlx was aggressively posting and trying to get claims from him before he read the thread. Maybe I was a bit too soft but I was afraid of a hasty error.

I'll also give you credit that the six aces wagon was fast. Perhaps I'm due to reread, as I was even later than you on the wagon. Although I had posted before you following the soft claim, I didn't want the day to end so quickly...but there's not much you can do about that. Perhaps I'm too cautious of a player.

The SK strategy I laid out isn't that complicated to figure out, so yes plenty of players could see that. And I am one of them also, of course. I didn't mean to imply that only the Fonz could come up with it, just that whoever the SK is does understand their role and their chances pretty well. You also have a valid point about the SK being an unconfirmed, which includes yourself and myself with several others who have been listed a few times.

----

In the end, I'm still suspicious of you. It is based mostly on feelings and your play style; I realize I have no smoking gun. I don't think I over hyped the case then or now. I'm fine with lynching dahill if that's going to be the majority opinion but several people have agreed with my case and I'll stick it out a day or two more to see which wagon is more popular. At this point with only 1 mafia and 1 sk, it's pretty difficult for scum to sway wagons, so the popular wagon is likely genuine. Or at least slightly more genuine than earlier wagons with 2-3 scum on them.
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Post Post #1066 (ISO) » Wed May 28, 2008 12:59 am

Post by The Fonz »

Shteven wrote:For the record, I'm not opposed to a dahill1 wagon, but as I'm more personally responsible for the Fonz's, I figured I'd reply to his comments.

Yes, the timing was a bit funny, but the larger problem was not posting for eight days. Lurking is a (sadly) valid scum strategy. Those who aren't here as much don't get quite as much attention. To counteract this players will intentionally hunt after lurkers, to try to balance it out. It needs countering, though. If no one mentions it then it will provide an advantage to anyone who needs to survive. Eight days is a fairly long time.
True. But I don't choose when my deadlines come. And if you want me to point out the five or so other games where my posting was similarly limited over the exact same timeframe, I will. Do you think I'm scum in all of them?

Also, an important point that was made in MD fairly recently- it's kinda scummy to accuse people of lurking, then pull the 'oh, how convenient' crap when said player does actually post. We want people to post, yes? Think about the alternative to 'convenient' posting. It's more lurking, isn't it?
The Fonz wrote: 90% of SK claims are made by mafia in my experience. That you think an SK claim should make people reconsider... words honestly fail me.
I'll keep this in mind - I haven't seen many (any?) SK claims in the past. I didn't mean that they should reconsider as in unvote, but I was hoping for a slightly longer discussion before he was lynched. [/quote[

Think about it this way- a claimed SK can basically never win, unless the town will auto-lose by lynching him there and then. Therefore, there's no basis for a genuine SK to claim, ever. However, some towns will let a claimed SK live for a short while, which benefits a mafioso.

I really don't see the need for 'more discussion' there- we had a confirmed anti-town role. (Indeed, the thought occurred to me that it might very well be in the interests of a genuine SK to keep a fake SK around, so people stop SK-hunting).
I'll also give you credit that the six aces wagon was fast. Perhaps I'm due to reread, as I was even later than you on the wagon. Although I had posted before you following the soft claim, I didn't want the day to end so quickly...but there's not much you can do about that. Perhaps I'm too cautious of a player.
You're missing the point. The Six Aces wagon was not just fast, it was obvious. It's a no-brainer to vote someone with a claimed guilty on them, at least if you're town. (You will get the odd foolish scum trying to defend their buddy and discredit the cop, but good scum will bus). Therefore, you can't derive anything from someone being on the wagon, or where they are on the wagon. It's a slight scumtell to be off it, the tell lessening with the experience of the player.
The SK strategy I laid out isn't that complicated to figure out, so yes plenty of players could see that.
Which means that your application of it to me personally is bunk, no? (Not to be rude, Shteven, but I do feel like you've been pushing burden of proficiency on me for a while now, with things like asking why I wasn't pushing non-obvious candidates when no-one was, for example. Of course, also note that the last couple of obvious candidates have, well, come up scum).

And I am one of them also, of course. I didn't mean to imply that only the Fonz could come up with it, just that whoever the SK is does understand their role and their chances pretty well.
Which could also be inferred from the fact that the darned SK
is still alive
. Basically, you've not shown anything that suggests that the SK is more likely to be me than pretty much anyone else.


You also have a valid point about the SK being an unconfirmed, which includes yourself and myself with several others who have been listed a few times.
In the end, I'm still suspicious of you. It is based mostly on feelings and your play style; I realize I have no smoking gun.
Let me ask you- does it not concern you that a case that you've now admitted basically comes down to gut is being embraced so utterly uncritically? No-one else has bothered to go over your arguments and see if they actually imply SK-ness or anything.

They've just basically gone 'oh yeah, Shteven's made a case against fonz, that'll do-
what he said
. There's been no analysis of your case by anyone but me. And, not to be funny, but I could make a case at least as good as yours on me on pretty much anyone bar LTG and vollkan.

So by the wonders of group think, there's this kind of tacit assent from everyone to the notion that I am the SK, and it seems like no one has actually thought about whether your case actually makes sense or not.

I don't think I over hyped the case then or now. I'm fine with lynching dahill if that's going to be the majority opinion but several people have agreed with my case and I'll stick it out a day or two more to see which wagon is more popular. At this point with only 1 mafia and 1 sk, it's pretty difficult for scum to sway wagons, so the popular wagon is likely genuine. Or at least slightly more genuine than earlier wagons with 2-3 scum on them.
I'm uncomfortable with this. A wagon is likely to be genuine just 'cos it's a wagon?

I mean, does it not seem fairly obvious that 'Fonz is the SK' is a fairly profitable line for scum to fall in behind, if they know they may well have to lynch me to win, but can't push a case on me as mafia?
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Post Post #1067 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 12:57 pm

Post by iamausername »

LaptopGun wrote:I'd vote for dahil or Fonz but I dont want to vote then disappear. That could leave the wagon open to be hijacked.
Wagons can't be hijacked if they're on scum. You should've voted dahill before you left so we wouldn't be stuck here waiting.
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Post Post #1068 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 12:59 pm

Post by dahill1 »

iamausername wrote:
LaptopGun wrote:I'd vote for dahil or Fonz but I dont want to vote then disappear. That could leave the wagon open to be hijacked.
Wagons can't be hijacked if they're on scum. You should've voted dahill before you left so we wouldn't be stuck here waiting.
the honest truth is that i honestly thought phate was a better lynch and when SC turned up scum, i was basically screwed. the mafia are going to take full advantage of this to kill me
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Post Post #1069 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 6:58 pm

Post by Shteven »

The Fonz wrote: Also, an important point that was made in MD fairly recently- it's kinda scummy to accuse people of lurking, then pull the 'oh, how convenient' crap when said player does actually post. We want people to post, yes? Think about the alternative to 'convenient' posting. It's more lurking, isn't it?
Fair enough - I'll still count the 8 days without posting against you but I'll forgive the timing on the return.
The Fonz wrote:Let me ask you- does it not concern you that a case that you've now admitted basically comes down to gut is being embraced so utterly uncritically? No-one else has bothered to go over your arguments and see if they actually imply SK-ness or anything.
Simply put, yes. And they will be held accountable - several people noted agreement, although Dahill1's the only one to join in voting.
I'm uncomfortable with this. A wagon is likely to be genuine just 'cos it's a wagon?
This is a straw man, though. You said nothing about the decreasing number of scum. There are no anti-town "teams" anymore; both scum factions are down to 1 player. They may be able to join on a wagon in to mutual benefit but it's not possible for them to work out such a strategy ahead of time. While our overall ratio of pro-town to anti-town hasn't changed much, scum can't really blindly railroad a townie at this point. For all they know they might be getting the opposing scum faction, which would work out very well for the town.

In the end, however, I'm comfortable with dahill and he's going to be the lynch for today. I don't see a problem handling the Fonz later, if we survive the night.

Unvote. Vote: dahill1.
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Post Post #1070 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 7:07 pm

Post by The Fonz »

Not a strawman at all. There are fewer scum, sure, but there are fewer players. We started with five of twenty, at present we have two of seven. So the scum influence is actually greater. Yes, they may not be co-ordinating a wagon, but then... that was never the case with any of the three dead scum.

Plus, the logical conclusion of your argument would hold, whoever the wagon was on and whatever the reasoning, therefore i think 'a wagon is likely genuine just because it's a wagon' is a fair assessment of what you were saying there.
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Post Post #1071 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 7:10 pm

Post by vollkan »

Fonz wrote: Means nothing. I voted 6A with my first post after the JG claim. Voting players with claimed guilties on them really is a matter of opportunity rather than position. Are you honestly claiming it matters how early or late you vote in that scenario? Are people who quickly vote in response to a claimed guilty more likely town?
I think it less likely generally that scum will be on their partner's wagon but, once a scumclaim occurs or things otherwise look inevitable, scum want to get on asap.
Fonz wrote: Keeping his vote record to a minimum? What does that even mean? And how would an anti-town player benefit from it? You're attacking me for not votehopping? I'll give you one thing, at least it's original.
Agreed. The number of times somebody votes is irrelevant to their alignment. What's important is the extent to which they are clear about their opinion. I can't recall whether or not that was the case with you, Fonz, but I don't think your lack of voting is, of itself, anything more than a nullity.
dahill wrote: Fonz, i'm not voting you because you have a bigger wagon, but it is between either you or armlx right now, for me. and armlx currently has no votes, so i voted for you because you did have more votes
This is bullshit. So you have a choice between Fonz and armlx - rather than reasoning your way through, you hop on the biggest wagon. Simply choosing on that basis is indefensible.
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Post Post #1072 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 7:17 pm

Post by The Fonz »

vollkan wrote:
Fonz wrote: Means nothing. I voted 6A with my first post after the JG claim. Voting players with claimed guilties on them really is a matter of opportunity rather than position. Are you honestly claiming it matters how early or late you vote in that scenario? Are people who quickly vote in response to a claimed guilty more likely town?
I think it less likely generally that scum will be on their partner's wagon but, once a scumclaim occurs or things otherwise look inevitable, scum want to get on asap.
Yeah... but it's a no-brainer for town to vote the scum too. And besides, if you're going to attack someone for being late on a scumwagon, wouldn't it carry a lot more weight if you yourself hadn't jumped on subsequent to the guy you're accusing?
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Post Post #1073 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 7:31 pm

Post by armlx »

I don't get what you are trying to argue here Fonz.

Also agree with dahill's method of decision being BS, but thats kinda a moot point now.
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Post Post #1074 (ISO) » Thu May 29, 2008 7:36 pm

Post by The Fonz »

I'm trying to argue that me being eighth out of ten on six aces actually doesn't mean anything.

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